Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for EMNATI-22 in Madagascar from 16 Feb 2022 18:00 UTC to 18 Feb 2022 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for EMNATI-22

in Madagascar

18 Feb 2022 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Beta version

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EMNATI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2022-000175-MDG
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	2.2 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	204 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (22 Feb 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 22 Feb 2022 00:00 - 23 Feb 2022 00:00 in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	148 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	204 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

148 km/h Current Max.

Up to 220000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	16 Feb 2022 18:00	176	1.3 million	No people	Mauritius
2	17 Feb 2022 00:00	185	2.1 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
3	17 Feb 2022 12:00	167	10.4 million	80 thousand	Madagascar
4	18 Feb 2022 00:00	148	14.9 million	220 thousand	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	16 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-14.1, 68.4
2	17 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-14.2, 67.8
3	17 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.9, 64.2
4	18 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.4, 63
4	18 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-13.8, 61.3
4	19 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	-14.6, 59.6
4	19 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-15.5, 58.1
4	20 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	-16, 57
4	21 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 2	176	no people	1.6 million people	-17.6, 54.9
4	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 1	148	220000 people	14.9 million people	-18.1, 51.9
4	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-19.4, 48.2	Madagascar

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Toamasina	Madagascar

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Andevoranto		Madagascar
Vatomandry	MGVAT	Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Andrangazaha, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 22 Feb 2022 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (52 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 4 of 18 Feb 2022 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Tamatave	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 18:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 18:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 18:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 18:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 18:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 22:00	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 22:00	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 22:00	Anjanozana	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Foulpointe	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Tampina	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 17:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 17:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 21:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 21:00	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankarefo	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambinanysahavary	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 21:00	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Vohitramposina	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Kalomalala	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 11:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 18:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 18:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 22:00	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 20:00	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 20:00	Anaovandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 22:00	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 22:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 22:00	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 22:00	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 21:00	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Marofinaritra	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Taratasy	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Manakambahiny	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Amboditafara	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Ampitabe	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Vavony	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Ampanotoamaizina	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 00:00	Marosiky	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.