Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for GOMBE-22 in Madagascar from 07 Mar 2022 18:00 UTC to 09 Mar 2022 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for GOMBE-22

in Madagascar

09 Mar 2022 06 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Beta version

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GOMBE-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2022-000182-MDG
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	100 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	185 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.7 m (11 Mar 06:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 10 Mar 2022 18:00 - 11 Mar 2022 06:00 in Mozambique

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	130 km/h	0.7 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	185 km/h	0.7 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

130 km/h Current Max.

Up to 1.3 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	07 Mar 2022 18:00	111	1000 thousand	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
2	08 Mar 2022 06:00	130	4.9 million	230 thousand	Mozambique
3	08 Mar 2022 18:00	139	8.1 million	540 thousand	Mozambique
4	09 Mar 2022 06:00	130	5.3 million	1.3 million	Mozambique

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	07 Mar 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-15.6, 51.3
2	08 Mar 2022 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-15.4, 49.4	Madagascar
3	08 Mar 2022 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	400000 people	-15.1, 47.6	Madagascar
4	09 Mar 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-14.8, 46
4	09 Mar 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-15, 44.4
4	10 Mar 2022 06:00	Category 1	120	no people	500000 people	-15.2, 42.8
4	10 Mar 2022 18:00	Category 1	139	70000 people	1.8 million people	-15.4, 41.7
4	11 Mar 2022 06:00	Category 1	130	1.3 million people	4.2 million people	-15.4, 40.6	Mozambique
4	12 Mar 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	2 million people	-15.3, 38.6	Mozambique
4	13 Mar 2022 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-15.4, 37.5	Mozambique

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mozambique

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Nampula	Mozambique

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Nampula	Nampula	Mozambique	City	380000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Nampula	APL	444	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6500

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.7m in Barroa, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 11 Mar 2022 06:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (50 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 4 of 09 Mar 2022 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	11 Mar 2022 06:00	Barroa	Mozambique	0.7
	11 Mar 2022 06:00	Terrene	Mozambique	0.6
	11 Mar 2022 06:00	Coluvelane	Mozambique	0.6
	11 Mar 2022 07:00	Metopa	Mozambique	0.4
	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Lunga	Mozambique	0.3
	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Ali	Mozambique	0.3
	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Injaca	Mozambique	0.3
	11 Mar 2022 07:00	Quinga	Mozambique	0.3
	11 Mar 2022 07:00	Metula	Mozambique	0.3
	08 Mar 2022 21:00	Antonibe	Madagascar	0.3
	11 Mar 2022 10:00	Muaco	Mozambique	0.3
	08 Mar 2022 21:00	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 21:00	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 04:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 04:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 04:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 03:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 03:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 05:00	Mossuril	Mozambique	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 02:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 03:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 12:00	Nantapa	Mozambique	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Mar 2022 09:00	Namuali	Mozambique	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Mar 2022 21:00	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 06:00	Calajulo	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 07:00	Cabaceira	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 10:00	Namacoto	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 03:00	Mocambique	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 03:00	Matibane	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Sanhute	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Miaola	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Lumbo	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 07:00	Momade	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 12:00	Natiquinde	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 04:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 03:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 03:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Anjajavy	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Mosengeri	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 02:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Ankaranakatra	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Mar 2022 04:00	Alimperia	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Mar 2022 22:00	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.