Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for ROSLYN-22
in Mexico
20 Oct 2022 09 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone ROSLYN-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: TC-2022-000345-MEX
    Exposed countries Mexico
    Exposed population 290 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 213 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (23 Oct 18:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
    Landfall between
    23 Oct 2022 06:00 - 24 Oct 2022 06:00
    in Mexico

    GDACS Score

    GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
    For more info on GDACS core click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 167 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 1.5
    Overall 213 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 1.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      167 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 460000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Level N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Orange 1 20 Oct 2022 03:00 167 2 million 130 thousand Mexico
        Orange 2 20 Oct 2022 09:00 167 2.6 million 460 thousand Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

          Level N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 20 Oct 2022 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 15.2, -101.3
          GREEN
          		 2 20 Oct 2022 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 15.1, -101.5
          GREEN
          		 2 20 Oct 2022 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 15.3, -102.3
          GREEN
          		 2 21 Oct 2022 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 15.6, -103.3
          GREEN
          		 2 21 Oct 2022 18:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 16.1, -104.2
          GREEN
          		 2 22 Oct 2022 06:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 16.8, -105.2
          GREEN
          		 2 22 Oct 2022 18:00 Category 1 148 no people 67000 people 17.9, -106
          ORANGE
          		 2 23 Oct 2022 06:00 Category 2 167 470000 people 2.6 million people 19.4, -106.2
          GREEN
          		 2 24 Oct 2022 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 23.4, -104.3 Mexico
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country Population in Category 1 or higher strength
          Mexico 420000 people

          Provinces

          Region Province Country Population in Category 1 or higher strength
          Jalisco Mexico 4700 people
          Nayarit Mexico 380000 people
          Durango Mexico 27000 people

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Punta Mita Nayarit Mexico City -
          Santiago Ixcuintla Nayarit Mexico City -

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          El Llano 12 0
          San Blas 3 0
          La Candelaria del Alto 1940 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Ipala Mexico
          San Blas MXSBS Mexico

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          Agua Milpa Agua Milpa Santiago 1994
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.5 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Santa Cruz, Mexico. This height is estimated for 23 Oct 2022 18:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (14 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 2 of 20 Oct 2022 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Level Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          23 Oct 2022 18:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.5
          23 Oct 2022 12:00 Corrales Mexico  0.5
          23 Oct 2022 19:00 San Blas Mexico  0.4
          23 Oct 2022 15:00 Punta Mita Mexico  0.4
          23 Oct 2022 15:00 San Francisco Mexico  0.4
          23 Oct 2022 17:00 La Lima Mexico  0.4
          23 Oct 2022 16:00 Monteon Mexico  0.3
          23 Oct 2022 12:00 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.3
          23 Oct 2022 12:00 Ipala Mexico  0.3
          23 Oct 2022 14:00 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.3
          23 Oct 2022 22:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
          23 Oct 2022 10:00 Chola Mexico  0.1
          23 Oct 2022 13:00 Pizota Mexico  0.1
          23 Oct 2022 15:00 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.1