Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MAWAR-23
in Guam
22 May 2023 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone MAWAR-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Guam
    Exposed population 170 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 296 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (24 May 04:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Guam)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 204 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 2.5
    Overall 296 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 2.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      204 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 170000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Orange 1 20 May 2023 00:00 167 230 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
        Orange 2 20 May 2023 06:00 157 230 thousand 30 thousand Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
        Orange 3 20 May 2023 12:00 167 230 thousand 50 thousand Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
        Orange 4 20 May 2023 18:00 167 230 thousand 170 thousand Guam
        Orange 5 21 May 2023 00:00 176 230 thousand 170 thousand Guam
        Orange 6 21 May 2023 06:00 167 230 thousand 170 thousand Guam
        Orange 7 21 May 2023 12:00 176 230 thousand 170 thousand Guam
        Orange 8 21 May 2023 18:00 176 230 thousand 170 thousand Guam
        Red 9 22 May 2023 00:00 185 230 thousand 170 thousand Guam
        Red 10 22 May 2023 06:00 204 230 thousand 170 thousand Guam

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 20 May 2023 00:00 Tropical depression 46 no people 2400 people 5.4, 149.1
          GREEN
          		 2 20 May 2023 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people 2400 people 5.7, 149.2
          GREEN
          		 3 20 May 2023 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 4400 people 5.7, 149.3
          GREEN
          		 4 20 May 2023 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 4400 people 6.1, 149.2
          GREEN
          		 5 21 May 2023 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 5500 people 6.8, 149.2
          GREEN
          		 6 21 May 2023 06:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 6000 people 7.6, 148.7
          GREEN
          		 7 21 May 2023 12:00 Category 1 130 <1000 people 2700 people 8, 148.3
          GREEN
          		 8 21 May 2023 18:00 Category 1 139 no people <1000 people 8.5, 148.1
          GREEN
          		 9 22 May 2023 00:00 Category 2 157 no people <1000 people 9.1, 147.7
          GREEN
          		 10 22 May 2023 06:00 Category 2 167 no people <1000 people 9.5, 147
          GREEN
          		 10 22 May 2023 18:00 Category 2 176 no people 170000 people 10.7, 146.5
          GREEN
          		 10 23 May 2023 06:00 Category 3 185 no people 180000 people 11.8, 146
          RED
          		 10 23 May 2023 18:00 Category 3 194 170000 people 220000 people 12.7, 145.4
          RED
          		 10 24 May 2023 06:00 Category 3 204 89000 people 220000 people 13.5, 144.3
          GREEN
          		 10 25 May 2023 06:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 14.5, 141.2
          GREEN
          		 10 26 May 2023 06:00 Category 4 231 no people no people 15.2, 136.7
          GREEN
          		 10 27 May 2023 06:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 16.3, 132
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
          Guam 170000 people

          Provinces

          Region Province Country Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
          Guam Guam 170000 people

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Hagåtña Guam Capital 1000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          A.B. Won Pat International GUM 91 0
          Andersen AFB UAM 191 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Apra (Agana) GUAPR Guam
          Apra Harbor Guam
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0.6 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Lockwood Terrace, Guam. This height is estimated for 24 May 2023 04:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (36 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 10 of 22 May 2023 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          24 May 2023 04:00 Lockwood Terrace Guam  0.6
          24 May 2023 04:00 Agat Guam  0.6
          24 May 2023 04:00 Camp Bright Guam  0.6
          24 May 2023 04:00 Umatac Guam  0.6
          24 May 2023 04:00 Santa Rita Guam  0.6
          24 May 2023 04:00 Merizo Guam  0.6
          24 May 2023 04:00 Piti Guam  0.6
          24 May 2023 04:00 Asan Guam  0.6
          24 May 2023 04:00 Inarajan Guam  0.6
          24 May 2023 04:00 Hagatna Guam  0.6
          24 May 2023 04:00 Sinajana Guam  0.6
          24 May 2023 04:00 Talofofo Guam  0.6
          24 May 2023 04:00 Mongmong Guam  0.6
          24 May 2023 04:00 Ylig Guam  0.6
          24 May 2023 04:00 Yona Guam  0.6
          24 May 2023 04:00 Tamuning Guam  0.6
          24 May 2023 04:00 Barrigada Guam  0.6
          24 May 2023 02:00 Camp Quezon Guam  0.6
          24 May 2023 02:00 Asbeco Guam  0.6
          24 May 2023 02:00 Adacao Guam  0.6
          24 May 2023 01:00 Harmon Village Guam  0.3
          24 May 2023 01:00 Oceanview Guam  0.3
          24 May 2023 01:00 Dededo Guam  0.3
          24 May 2023 01:00 South Acres Guam  0.3
          24 May 2023 01:00 Ipapao Guam  0.3
          24 May 2023 01:00 Potts Junction Guam  0.3
          24 May 2023 01:00 Perez Acres Guam  0.3
          24 May 2023 01:00 Spring Hill Subdivision Guam  0.3
          24 May 2023 01:00 Upi Guam  0.3
          24 May 2023 01:00 Gayinero Guam  0.3
          24 May 2023 01:00 Asatdas Guam  0.3
          24 May 2023 01:00 Lupog Guam  0.3
          23 May 2023 22:00 Songsong Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
          23 May 2023 22:00 Teteto Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
          23 May 2023 22:00 Rota Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
          23 May 2023 22:00 Sinapalo Northern Mariana Islands  0.1