Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for GAMANE-24 in Madagascar from 25 Mar 2024 18:00 UTC to 27 Mar 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for GAMANE-24

in Madagascar

27 Mar 2024 06 UTC

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Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GAMANE-24 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	560 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	169 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (28 Mar 04:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 26 Mar 2024 18:00 - 27 Mar 2024 00:00 in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	148 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	169 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

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Wind

148 km/h Current Max.

Up to 400000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	25 Mar 2024 18:00	211	4.4 million	3 thousand	Madagascar
2	26 Mar 2024 00:00	179	2.2 million	440 thousand	Madagascar
3	26 Mar 2024 00:00	95	4 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
4	26 Mar 2024 06:00	190	3.3 million	580 thousand	Madagascar
5	26 Mar 2024 12:00	190	3.8 million	340 thousand	Madagascar
6	26 Mar 2024 18:00	190	2.9 million	300 thousand	Madagascar
7	27 Mar 2024 00:00	169	1.9 million	180 thousand	Madagascar
8	27 Mar 2024 06:00	148	2.3 million	400 thousand	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Category (WMO/RSMC) **	Max winds (km/h) (WMO/RSMC)	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	25 Mar 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-12.8, 51.5
1	25 Mar 2024 18:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	200000 people	Tropical Depression	56	-12.8, 51.1
2	25 Mar 2024 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-12.8, 51.1
2	26 Mar 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	1.3 million people	Tropical Depression	56	-12.8, 50.9
3	26 Mar 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	95	no people	4 million people	Moderate Tropical Storm	83	-12.5, 50.9
4	26 Mar 2024 06:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	1.4 million people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-12.4, 50.6
5	26 Mar 2024 12:00	Category 1	127	no people	490000 people	Severe Tropical Storm	111	-12.4, 50.6
6	26 Mar 2024 18:00	Category 1	148	100000 people	1.3 million people	Tropical Cyclone	130	-12.7, 50.4
7	27 Mar 2024 00:00	Category 2	169	180000 people	1.8 million people	Tropical Cyclone	148	-12.9, 50	Madagascar
8	27 Mar 2024 06:00	Category 1	148	410000 people	2.1 million people	Tropical Cyclone	130	-12.9, 49.7	Madagascar
8	27 Mar 2024 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	2.3 million people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-13.6, 49.7	Madagascar
8	28 Mar 2024 06:00	Tropical depression	42	no people	no people	Overland Depression	37	-14.6, 49.6	Madagascar
8	28 Mar 2024 18:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Overland Depression	46	-15.3, 50	Madagascar
8	29 Mar 2024 18:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-16.2, 51.7
8	30 Mar 2024 06:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-16.5, 52.6
8	30 Mar 2024 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-17, 53.5
8	31 Mar 2024 06:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-17.6, 54.3

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Madagascar	380000 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Antsiranana	Madagascar	380000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Vohemar	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Vohemar	VOH	6	Civ.	Paved	No	4200

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Vohemar		Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Ampondra, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 28 Mar 2024 04:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (98 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 8 of 26 Mar 2024 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	28 Mar 2024 04:00	Ampondra	Madagascar	0.3
	28 Mar 2024 04:00	Amboanio	Madagascar	0.3
	28 Mar 2024 04:00	Antsahotompy	Madagascar	0.3
	28 Mar 2024 03:00	Vohemar	Madagascar	0.3
	28 Mar 2024 05:00	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.3
	30 Mar 2024 11:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 11:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 11:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 14:00	Fadrina	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 15:00	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 15:00	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.2
	29 Mar 2024 16:00	Ratsianarana	Madagascar	0.2
	29 Mar 2024 16:00	Ambodivato	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 16:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 11:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 11:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 11:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 14:00	Ankazomalemy	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 16:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 15:00	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.2
	29 Mar 2024 16:00	Antanjokatafana	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 16:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 11:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	28 Mar 2024 01:00	Ampisikanana	Madagascar	0.2
	28 Mar 2024 05:00	Masondrono	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 11:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 11:00	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 15:00	Anjiamalandy	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 15:00	Ambariomena	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 15:00	Antsahabe	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 14:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 14:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 14:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 14:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 14:00	Bobasakoa	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 11:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.2
	30 Mar 2024 14:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	27 Mar 2024 01:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 02:00	Andrafiamadinika	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 11:00	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 02:00	Antanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	29 Mar 2024 14:00	Ambalabe	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 14:00	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 14:00	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 11:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 16:00	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 16:00	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 05:00	Ambanjsondriry	Madagascar	0.1
	29 Mar 2024 17:00	Anjanozana	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 13:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 16:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 16:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 13:00	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 11:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 11:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 13:00	Fararano	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 13:00	Antsorokaka	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 12:00	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 01:00	Ambatoharanana	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 11:00	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.1
	29 Mar 2024 17:00	Ampanavoana	Madagascar	0.1
	29 Mar 2024 17:00	Anaovandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 12:00	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 12:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 16:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 12:00	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 16:00	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 15:00	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 13:00	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 11:00	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	29 Mar 2024 14:00	Ambohitralanana	Madagascar	0.1
	29 Mar 2024 20:00	Maniroka	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 12:00	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 12:00	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 16:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 15:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 12:00	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 13:00	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 14:00	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 14:00	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 14:00	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 13:00	Ampanakana	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 11:00	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 11:00	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 11:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 11:00	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 11:00	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 04:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 11:00	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 11:00	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 12:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 13:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 15:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 12:00	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 13:00	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 13:00	Antanifatsy	Madagascar	0.1
	30 Mar 2024 13:00	Mahatsaborimaika	Madagascar	0.1
	28 Mar 2024 04:00	Ampana Kanana	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.