Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Exposed population 1.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 222 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.1 m (15 Mar 04:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 213 km/h 2.1 m n.a. 2.5
GDACS Overall 222 km/h 2.1 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

213 km/h Current

Up to 570000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Orange 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 213 6.6 million 870 thousand Mozambique
Orange 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 213 5.6 million 550 thousand Mozambique
Orange 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 204 2.9 million 250 thousand Mozambique
Orange 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 204 4.3 million 340 thousand Mozambique
Orange 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 213 4.1 million 1.3 million Mozambique
Orange 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 213 4.7 million 1.1 million Mozambique
Orange 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 222 5.2 million 440 thousand Mozambique
Orange 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 213 3 million 660 thousand Mozambique
Red 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 213 8.1 million 580 thousand Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 65 100000 people no people -17, 40.2 Mozambique
GREEN
2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -17, 41.3 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
GREEN
3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 1200 people no people -16.9, 42 Madagascar
GREEN
4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 74 100000 people no people -17.2, 42.4 Madagascar
GREEN
5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 93 69000 people no people -17.4, 42.6 Madagascar
GREEN
6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 102 210000 people no people -17.2, 43 Madagascar
GREEN
7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 Category 1 130 310000 people no people -17.2, 43.2 Madagascar
GREEN
8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 Category 2 167 200000 people no people -17.3, 43.2 Madagascar
GREEN
9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 Category 3 185 170000 people no people -17.3, 43 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
GREEN
9 11 Mar 2019 18:00 Category 4 213 150000 people no people -17.7, 42.5 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
GREEN
9 12 Mar 2019 06:00 Category 4 231 88000 people no people -18.3, 42 Madagascar
GREEN
9 12 Mar 2019 18:00 Category 4 231 no people no people -18.9, 41.4 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
GREEN
9 13 Mar 2019 06:00 Category 4 222 1.3 million people no people -19.3, 40.4 Mozambique
RED
9 14 Mar 2019 06:00 Category 4 213 4.1 million people 260000 people -19.4, 38.1 Mozambique
ORANGE
9 15 Mar 2019 06:00 Category 2 176 7.4 million people 560000 people -18.8, 36.1 Mozambique
GREEN
9 16 Mar 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people -18, 34.7 Mozambique
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Juan De Nova I.
Mozambique

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Juan De Nova I. Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands -
Zambezia Mozambique 3.4 million people
Sofala Mozambique 1.4 million people
Manica Mozambique 870000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Chinde INE unknown 0 714 km
Luabo LBM unknown 0 736 km
Inhaminga IMG unknown 0 857 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Vila Do Chinde Mozambique 702 km
Chinde MZINE Mozambique 708 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

2.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.1m in Maconharumo, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 15 Mar 2019 04:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (139 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 9 of 11 Mar 2019 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
15 Mar 2019 04:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  2.1
15 Mar 2019 04:00 Amado Mozambique  2.1
15 Mar 2019 03:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  1.7
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Machesse Mozambique  1.1
15 Mar 2019 05:00 Rupia Mozambique  1.0
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.9
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.9
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.9
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Beira Mozambique  0.9
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.9
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Tama Mozambique  0.9
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.9
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.8
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.8
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Manica Mozambique  0.7
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 22:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.4
11 Mar 2019 01:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 01:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 01:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.4
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.4
11 Mar 2019 00:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.4
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Barra Mozambique  0.3
11 Mar 2019 00:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.3
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 00:00 Onara Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 00:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 00:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 00:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.3
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.3
14 Mar 2019 10:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.3
10 Mar 2019 00:00 Amboaboaka Madagascar  0.3
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.3
11 Mar 2019 08:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.3
09 Mar 2019 07:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.3
10 Mar 2019 00:00 Matahibory Madagascar  0.3
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.3
10 Mar 2019 00:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.3
12 Mar 2019 02:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.3
12 Mar 2019 02:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.3
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 19:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 00:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 03:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 03:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 00:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 22:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 01:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 01:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Antonibe Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Antantiloky Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 03:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 22:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 22:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 22:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 22:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 22:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 22:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 00:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 22:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 17:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 08:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 19:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 18:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 03:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Pebane Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 17:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 08:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 00:00 Ampasitsilavitra Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 19:00 Caramaca Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 05:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Andriana Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 22:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 19:00 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 19:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Moebase Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 08:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 08:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 08:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
15 Mar 2019 04:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Andrafia Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 00:00 Mailakapasy Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Carramali Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Jo Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Mutadua Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Napito Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Namorre Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Natiquinde Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Antaribao Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 08:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Larde Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Mocareja Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 06:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 06:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 10:00 Coropoa Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 00:00 Antsahampano Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 09:00 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 00:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 04:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 04:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 04:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 00:00 Tsianinkiro Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Andranira Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 03:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Ankazomalemy Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Ambatobe Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 06:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Marovato Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 20:00 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.1