Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for HAGIBIS-19 in Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam from 05 Oct 2019 06:00 UTC to 07 Oct 2019 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HAGIBIS-19

in Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone HAGIBIS-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam
Exposed population	54.8 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	278 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.1 m (11 Oct 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Northern Mariana Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	204 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	278 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

204 km/h Current Max.

Up to 8.9 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	05 Oct 2019 06:00	241	50 thousand	No people	Northern Mariana Islands
2	05 Oct 2019 12:00	241	200 thousand	No people	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
3	05 Oct 2019 18:00	241	50 thousand	No people	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
4	06 Oct 2019 00:00	241	140 thousand	No people	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
5	06 Oct 2019 06:00	148	220 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
6	06 Oct 2019 12:00	148	1.6 million	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
7	06 Oct 2019 18:00	250	800 thousand	No people	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Japan
8	07 Oct 2019 00:00	259	6 million	No people	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Japan
9	07 Oct 2019 06:00	278	63.7 million	20 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
10	07 Oct 2019 12:00	204	101 million	8.9 million	Japan

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	05 Oct 2019 06:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	15.3, 161.1
2	05 Oct 2019 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	15.1, 159.2
3	05 Oct 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	15.3, 157.8
4	06 Oct 2019 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.9, 155.8
5	06 Oct 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.2, 154.1
6	06 Oct 2019 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.5, 152.4
7	06 Oct 2019 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	53000 people	14.9, 151.1	Northern Mariana Islands
8	07 Oct 2019 00:00	Category 3	185	no people	220000 people	15.1, 149.5	Guam
9	07 Oct 2019 06:00	Category 4	241	<1000 people	220000 people	15.5, 148.2	Northern Mariana Islands
10	07 Oct 2019 12:00	Category 5	259	no people	220000 people	16.1, 146.7	Guam
10	08 Oct 2019 00:00	Category 5	278	no people	220000 people	17.2, 144	Guam
10	08 Oct 2019 12:00	Category 5	269	no people	no people	18.3, 141.8
10	09 Oct 2019 00:00	Category 5	259	no people	<1000 people	19.5, 140.2
10	09 Oct 2019 12:00	Category 4	250	no people	<1000 people	20.9, 139
10	10 Oct 2019 12:00	Category 4	231	no people	48000 people	24.1, 136.8	Japan
10	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Category 3	204	9 million people	100.8 million people	28.1, 135	Japan
10	12 Oct 2019 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	33.7, 136.7	Japan

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Japan

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Chubu	Japan
Kinki	Japan

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Kushimoto	Wakayama	Japan	City	-
Shingu	Wakayama	Japan	City	31000 people
Arai	Shizuoka	Japan	City	-
Tanabe	Wakayama	Japan	City	69000 people
Toyohashi	Aichi	Japan	City	380000 people
Ise	Mie	Japan	City	97000 people
Toyokawa	Aichi	Japan	City	120000 people
Toyohama	Aichi	Japan	City	-
Nishio	Aichi	Japan	City	100000 people
Koyasan	Wakayama	Japan	City	-
Okazaki	Aichi	Japan	City	350000 people
Handa	Aichi	Japan	City	110000 people
Tsu	Mie	Japan	Major city	160000 people
Tokoname	Aichi	Japan	City	49000 people
Kariya	Aichi	Japan	City	140000 people
Kainan	Wakayama	Japan	City	43000 people
Sakurai	Nara	Japan	City	63000 people
Nagano	Nara	Japan	City	-
Suzuka	Mie	Japan	City	190000 people
Kashihara	Nara	Japan	City	120000 people
Yokkaichi	Mie	Japan	City	290000 people
Tondabayashi	Osaka	Japan	City	130000 people
Ueno	Mie	Japan	City	61000 people
Kokubu	Nara	Japan	City	-
Izumi	Osaka	Japan	City	190000 people
Nara	Nara	Japan	Major city	360000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Kushimoto-Katsuura	KUJ	unknown				0
Nanki Shirahama	SHM	105	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5900
		6				0
Shinodayama		15				0
Yao		12	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4800

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Farallon de Medinilla		Northern Mariana Islands
Guguan Island		Northern Mariana Islands
Kushimoto		Japan
Uraga	JPURG	Japan
Shingu	JPSHN	Japan
Hamamatsu	JPHMM	Japan
Owase	JPOWA	Japan
Tanabe	JPTAE	Japan
Toba	JPTOB	Japan
Toyohashi	JPTHS	Japan
Ise	JPISE	Japan
Atsumi	JPATM	Japan
Gamagori	JPGAM	Japan
Matsuzaka		Japan
Kinuura	JPKNU	Japan
Tsu	JPTSU	Japan
Kainan	JPKAI	Japan
Yokkaichi	JPYKK	Japan

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
Nanairochosuichi	Nanairo	Kitayamagawa	1965
Kamiji	Kamiji	Kamijigawa	1972
Ikeharako	Ikehara	Kitayamagawa	1964
Sakamotochosuichi	Sakamoto	Higashinogawa	1962
Hattachiike	Hattachiike	Toyokawa	1966
Kazeyachosuichi	Kazeya	Totsugawa	1960
Osugiko	Miyagawa	Miyagawa	1956
Okuiseko	Misetani	Miyagawa	1966
Gokatsuraike	Gokatsuraike		1678
Asahichosuichi	Asahi	Asahigawa	1978
Komanbachoseichi	Komanba	Toyokawa	1968
Osakochosuichi	Osako	Kinokawa	1973
Nameriko	Nameriko	Nakamuragawa	1973
Futagawa	Futagawa	Aritagawa	1966
Tsuburoko	Tsuburo	Tsuburogawa	1962
Kimigano	Kimigano	Hatsutematagawa	1971
Maeyamaike	Maeyama	Maeyamakawa	1990
Katada	Katada	Naganogawa	1929
			1998
Shorenjiko	Shorenji	Shorenjigawa	1970
Murooko	Murou	Udagawa	1973
Souriike	Souri	Shinanogawa	1965
Shakujoko	Ano	Anogawa	1990
Takihata	Takihata	Ishikawa	1981
Kasatochoseichi	Kasatochoseichi	Shiyamagawa	1983
Horigo	Horigo	Horigogawa	1969
Midoroike	Midoro	Hinogkawa	1970
Tashiroko	Tashiroike	Takikawa	1895
Komyoike	Komyoike	Makiogawa	1936
Sayamaike	Sayamaike	Nishiyokegawa	2001
Tsukigaseko	Takayama	Nabarigawa	1968
Oharachosuichi	Ohara	Oharagawa	1960
Onoike	Onoike	Makiogawa	1940
	Yasugawa	Yasugawa	2009
Ozuchi	Ozuchi	Yasugawa	1987

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.1m in Kisaki, Japan. This height is estimated for 11 Oct 2019 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (77 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 10 of 07 Oct 2019 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Kisaki	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Tachibandori	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Oryuzako	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Haruguchi	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Kaminaka	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Sakai	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Takesaki	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Sumiyoshi	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Hirayama	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Hirota	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Hamada	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Osaki	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Aburatsu	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Hayama	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Takabo	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Miyazaki	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Niinauri	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Udo	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Meitsu	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Karijuku	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Takanabe	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Uwae	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Araki	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Uekatsu	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Akatsure	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Urabaru	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Aden	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Somachi	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Shitooke	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Shimonaka	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Mitariyama	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Miza	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Noma	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Fukagawa	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Hamatsuwaki	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Takenokawa	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Makigawa	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Takeyano	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Odaira	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Onasu	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Jusamban	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Nijuban	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Nakayama	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Jurokuban	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Kurazami	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Nishinoomote	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Masuda	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Kerisaki	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Komakino	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Osaki	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Yakenota	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Yokoyama	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Ikenohira	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Kunigami	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Kunikami	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Anjo	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Tachiyama	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Ono	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Yanagihara	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Azako	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Guniwa	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Anno	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Minato	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Iseki	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Shoiiura	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Shimama	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Ushino	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Shimo-Nishime	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Nishino	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Miyanoura	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Nakamura	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Shimo-Tashima	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Ambo	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Funayuki	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Higashi	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Igatan	Japan	0.1
	11 Oct 2019 12:00	Tomai	Japan	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.