Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for ELOISE-21 in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 17 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC to 18 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21

in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

18 Jan 2021 06 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Exposed population	1 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	139 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (20 Jan 02:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Mozambique)
Landfall	between 19 Jan 2021 18:00 - 20 Jan 2021 06:00 in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	111 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	139 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

111 km/h Current Max.

Up to 5.7 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	17 Jan 2021 06:00	102	3.1 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
2	17 Jan 2021 18:00	111	3.2 million	No people	Madagascar
3	18 Jan 2021 06:00	111	5.7 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	17 Jan 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-12.6, 62.1
2	17 Jan 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-13.2, 59.6
3	18 Jan 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-13.7, 56.6
3	18 Jan 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-14.5, 54.3
3	19 Jan 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	430000 people	-15.1, 52.5
3	19 Jan 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	1.6 million people	-15.5, 51
3	20 Jan 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	2.2 million people	-15.8, 49	Madagascar
3	21 Jan 2021 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	210000 people	-17, 45.1	Madagascar
3	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	2.8 million people	-18.9, 41.2
3	23 Jan 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-20.7, 37.6

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar
Juan De Nova I.
Mozambique

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Antsiranana	Madagascar
Toamasina	Madagascar
Mahajanga	Madagascar
Juan De Nova I.	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Zambezia	Mozambique
Sofala	Mozambique
Manica	Mozambique
Inhambane	Mozambique

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Antalaha	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	34000 people
Andapa	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	20000 people
Maroantsetra	Toamasina	Madagascar	City	24000 people
Mananara	Toamasina	Madagascar	City	41000 people
Mandritsara	Mahajanga	Madagascar	City	-
Marovoay	Mahajanga	Madagascar	City	31000 people
Ambato Boeni	Mahajanga	Madagascar	City	-
Quelimane	Zambezia	Mozambique	City	190000 people
Beira	Sofala	Mozambique	Major city	520000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Antalaha Antsirabato	ANM	6	Civ.	Paved	No	3900
Andapa	ZWA	473	Civ.	Paved	No	4100
Maroantsetra	WMN	4	Civ.	Paved	No	4200
Mananara Nord	WMR	3	Civ.	Paved	No	4100
Mandritsara	WMA	307	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3700
Befandriana	WBD	250	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4100
Port Berge	WPB	65	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4200
Tsaratanana	TTS	327	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4300
Madirovalo	WMV	unknown				0
Morafenobe	TVA	unknown				0
Besalampy	BPY	38	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Tambohorano	WTA	7	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3200
Maintirano	MXT	30	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4200
Quelimane	UEL	11	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5900
Chinde	INE	unknown				0
Luabo	LBM	unknown				0
Beira	BEW	10	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7800
Vilanculos	VNX	14	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4800
Vila Franca Do Save		30				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Antataha	MGANM	Madagascar
Maroantsetra	MGWMN	Madagascar
Mananara	MGWMR	Madagascar
Saint Mary Island		Madagascar
Maintirano	MGMXT	Madagascar
Porto Belo	MZPBE	Mozambique
Porto de Quelimane	MZUEL	Mozambique
Vila Do Chinde		Mozambique
Chinde	MZINE	Mozambique
Bazaruto Island		Mozambique
Beira	MZBEW	Mozambique
Bartolomeo Diaz		Mozambique
Nova Mambone		Mozambique
Vilanculas		Mozambique

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Ambilivily		1954
	Amboromalandy		1934

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.6m in Rantabe, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 20 Jan 2021 02:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (170 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 3 of 18 Jan 2021 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	20 Jan 2021 02:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.6
	20 Jan 2021 00:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.6
	20 Jan 2021 00:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.6
	20 Jan 2021 00:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.6
	20 Jan 2021 00:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.6
	20 Jan 2021 00:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.5
	20 Jan 2021 02:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.5
	20 Jan 2021 00:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.5
	20 Jan 2021 00:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.5
	20 Jan 2021 00:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.4
	20 Jan 2021 00:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.4
	20 Jan 2021 02:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Baly	Madagascar	0.4
	20 Jan 2021 00:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.4
	20 Jan 2021 02:00	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.4
	20 Jan 2021 02:00	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.4
	19 Jan 2021 22:00	Anjanozana	Madagascar	0.4
	20 Jan 2021 02:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.4
	20 Jan 2021 02:00	Mananara	Madagascar	0.4
	20 Jan 2021 02:00	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.4
	19 Jan 2021 21:00	Maniroka	Madagascar	0.4
	19 Jan 2021 22:00	Anaovandrano	Madagascar	0.3
	19 Jan 2021 22:00	Ampanavoana	Madagascar	0.3
	19 Jan 2021 21:00	Antanjokatafana	Madagascar	0.3
	19 Jan 2021 21:00	Ratsianarana	Madagascar	0.3
	19 Jan 2021 21:00	Ambodivato	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Boanamary	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Maconharumo	Mozambique	0.3
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Amado	Mozambique	0.3
	19 Jan 2021 23:00	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.3
	20 Jan 2021 02:00	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Mulia	Mozambique	0.3
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Nhangau	Mozambique	0.3
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Damiao	Mozambique	0.3
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Chamba	Mozambique	0.3
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Beira	Mozambique	0.3
	19 Jan 2021 23:00	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.3
	19 Jan 2021 22:00	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Chimuaza	Mozambique	0.3
	19 Jan 2021 23:00	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Ocone	Mozambique	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Manampea	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Majunga	Madagascar	0.2
	20 Jan 2021 02:00	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Tama	Mozambique	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Jonja	Mozambique	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Machesse	Mozambique	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Vila do Chinde	Mozambique	0.2
	20 Jan 2021 02:00	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Onara	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Barra	Mozambique	0.2
	20 Jan 2021 02:00	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.2
	20 Jan 2021 02:00	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Quelimane do Sal	Mozambique	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Inhangulue	Mozambique	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Magromane	Mozambique	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Chofandicho	Mozambique	0.2
	20 Jan 2021 02:00	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Morrua	Mozambique	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2021 19:00	Ambohitralanana	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Panaca	Mozambique	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Rupia	Mozambique	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.2
	20 Jan 2021 02:00	Manambato	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Bingue	Mozambique	0.2
	20 Jan 2021 03:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	20 Jan 2021 03:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 14:00	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Raraga	Mozambique	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Chululu	Mozambique	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.2
	20 Jan 2021 01:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	20 Jan 2021 01:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	20 Jan 2021 03:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	20 Jan 2021 03:00	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Jan 2021 14:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Metapa	Mozambique	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Moebase	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Namorre	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Mutiba	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Caliua	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2021 07:00	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Murrumuana	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2021 03:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2021 03:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2021 03:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Andemba	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2021 04:00	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Mendozo	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Tomodo	Mozambique	0.1
	20 Jan 2021 04:00	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2021 04:00	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2021 04:00	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2021 03:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2021 03:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2021 03:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 20:00	Antsirabato	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 20:00	Anjahamarina	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2021 03:00	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Napito	Mozambique	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Mutadua	Mozambique	0.1
	20 Jan 2021 01:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2021 03:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 21:00	Ambalabe	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Andramy	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Manometimay	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Antsamaka	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Morondava	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2021 04:00	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2021 06:00	Anjajavy	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.