Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Exposed countries Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Exposed population 1 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 139 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (22 Jan 07:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)
Landfall between
19 Jan 2021 06:00 - 19 Jan 2021 18:00

in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 111 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 0.5
Overall 139 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

111 km/h Current Max.

Up to 5.7 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 102 3.1 million No people Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Green 2 17 Jan 2021 18:00 111 3.2 million No people Madagascar
Green 3 18 Jan 2021 06:00 111 5.7 million No people Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique
Green 4 18 Jan 2021 18:00 111 5.7 million No people Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -12.6, 62.1
GREEN
2 17 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -13.2, 59.6
GREEN
3 18 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -13.7, 56.6
GREEN
4 18 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 250000 people -14.1, 53
GREEN
4 19 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 1.8 million people -14.9, 51.2
GREEN
4 19 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 2.4 million people -15.2, 49.8 Madagascar
GREEN
4 20 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 2.1 million people -15.5, 48.4 Madagascar
GREEN
4 20 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people 950000 people -16.1, 46.2 Madagascar
GREEN
4 21 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -18.2, 42.3
GREEN
4 22 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 2 million people -20, 38.7
GREEN
4 23 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people -22, 35.6 Mozambique
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar
Juan De Nova I.
Mozambique

Provinces

Region Province Country
Antsiranana Madagascar
Toamasina Madagascar
Mahajanga Madagascar
Juan De Nova I. Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Zambezia Mozambique
Sofala Mozambique
Manica Mozambique
Inhambane Mozambique
Gaza Mozambique

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Antalaha Antsiranana Madagascar City 34000 people
Sambava Antsiranana Madagascar City 31000 people
Andapa Antsiranana Madagascar City 20000 people
Maroantsetra Toamasina Madagascar City 24000 people
Mananara Toamasina Madagascar City 41000 people
Mandritsara Mahajanga Madagascar City -
Marovoay Mahajanga Madagascar City 31000 people
Ambato Boeni Mahajanga Madagascar City -
Beira Sofala Mozambique Major city 520000 people
Maxixe Mozambique City 120000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Antalaha Antsirabato ANM 6 Civ. Paved No 3900
Sambava SVB 6 Civ. Paved No 5900
Andapa ZWA 473 Civ. Paved No 4100
Doany DOA unknown 0
Maroantsetra WMN 4 Civ. Paved No 4200
Mananara Nord WMR 3 Civ. Paved No 4100
Bealanana WBE 1120 0
Mandritsara WMA 307 Civ. Unpaved No 3700
Befandriana WBD 250 Civ. Unpaved No 4100
Antsohihy Ambalabe WAI 28 Civ. Paved No 4900
Anahidrano 60 0
Port Berge WPB 65 Civ. Unpaved No 4200
Mahajanga Amborovy MJN 26 Civ. Paved Yes 7200
Madirovalo WMV unknown 0
Soalala DWB 43 Civ. Paved No 4100
Morafenobe TVA unknown 0
Besalampy BPY 38 Civ. Paved No 4900
Tambohorano WTA 7 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
Maintirano MXT 30 Civ. Unpaved No 4200
Beira BEW 10 Civ. Paved Yes 7800
Vilanculos VNX 14 Civ. Paved Yes 4800
Vila Franca Do Save 30 0
Inhambane INH 9 Civ. Paved Yes 4900

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Antataha MGANM Madagascar
Sambava MGSVB Madagascar
Maroantsetra MGWMN Madagascar
Mananara MGWMR Madagascar
Majunga (Mahajanga) MGMJN Madagascar
Soalala MGDWB Madagascar
Bali Madagascar
Cape St. Andre Madagascar
Maintirano MGMXT Madagascar
Bazaruto Island Mozambique
Beira MZBEW Mozambique
Nova Mambone Mozambique
Bartolomeo Diaz Mozambique
Vilanculas Mozambique
Inhambane MZINH Mozambique

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Ambilivily 1954

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Maconharumo, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 22 Jan 2021 07:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (233 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 4 of 18 Jan 2021 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
22 Jan 2021 07:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2021 23:00 Baly Madagascar  0.4
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.4
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Amado Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 13:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 13:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 13:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 13:00 Beira Mozambique  0.3
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 14:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 02:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.3
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 23:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 10:00 Tama Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 10:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 08:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.3
19 Jan 2021 13:00 Anjahamarina Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 07:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 07:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 07:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 07:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 03:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 02:00 Barra Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 03:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.3
19 Jan 2021 12:00 Ambohitralanana Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 08:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 08:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 08:00 Onara Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 08:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.3
20 Jan 2021 08:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 13:00 Ambalabe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 09:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 00:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 09:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 09:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 08:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.2
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 07:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 08:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 13:00 Manica Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 11:00 Antonibe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 00:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 00:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 14:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 09:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 01:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 11:00 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 11:00 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 14:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Bevoay Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 11:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 11:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Pebane Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 15:00 Amboaboaka Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 00:00 Andriana Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 10:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 07:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 23:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 23:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 23:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 23:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 20:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 15:00 Matahibory Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 00:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 07:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 13:00 Antsirabato Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 13:00 Ambodivato Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 05:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 05:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 05:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 09:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 09:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 11:00 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Caramaca Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 01:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 01:00 Andrafia Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 05:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 08:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 21:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Carramali Mozambique  0.2
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 13:00 Ratsianarana Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 04:00 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Ankazomalemy Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 04:00 Ambatobe Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 13:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 13:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Mandrony Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 23:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 11:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Moebase Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.2
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Ampasina Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Antakobola Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 09:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 09:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 16:00 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 13:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 14:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Ilomotro Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Andohonko Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Antsahampano Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 13:00 Antalaha Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 04:00 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 04:00 Ambariomena Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 04:00 Antsahabe Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 04:00 Ambodizaotra Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 04:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 04:00 Ampiambesa Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 04:00 Antetezampolaka Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 11:00 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Mutadua Mozambique  0.1
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Mananara Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 05:00 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 08:00 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 08:00 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 08:00 Ananalava Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 11:00 Antaribao Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 09:00 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 15:00 Ampasitsilavitra Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Larde Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 14:00 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 14:00 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 14:00 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 12:00 Amborimalana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 12:00 Ambodipont-Sahana Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 02:00 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 13:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 13:00 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Coropoa Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 13:00 Anaovandrano Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 12:00 Anjanozana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 13:00 Ambinany Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Ampanakana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Fararano Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Antsorokaka Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 10:00 Marovato Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 08:00 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 03:00 Andranira Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 12:00 Ampanavoana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 12:00 Maniroka Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 13:00 Antanjokatafana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Antanifatsy Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Mahatsaborimaika Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 13:00 Ampaha Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 13:00 Andrapengy Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 08:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Antananabe Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 10:00 Maromanjo Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 10:00 Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 10:00 Maromandia Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Vatobe Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 22:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 05:00 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 13:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 13:00 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:00 Tsianinkiro Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 16:00 Napito Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 16:00 Namorre Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.1