Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for CHENESO-23 in Madagascar from 18 Jan 2023 04:00 UTC to 19 Jan 2023 22:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHENESO-23

in Madagascar

19 Jan 2023 22 UTC

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Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHENESO-23 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	169 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (19 Jan 11:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 19 Jan 2023 10:00 - 19 Jan 2023 16:00 in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	74 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	169 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

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Wind

74 km/h Current Max.

Up to 3.4 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	18 Jan 2023 04:00	95	4.1 million	No people	Madagascar
2	18 Jan 2023 10:00	106	4.4 million	No people	Madagascar
3	18 Jan 2023 16:00	116	1.6 million	No people	Madagascar
4	18 Jan 2023 22:00	127	5.3 million	No people	Madagascar
5	19 Jan 2023 04:00	116	4.8 million	No people	Madagascar
6	19 Jan 2023 10:00	106	2.7 million	No people	Madagascar
7	19 Jan 2023 16:00	74	3.8 million	No people	Madagascar
8	19 Jan 2023 22:00	74	3.4 million	No people	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Category (WMO/RSMC) **	Max winds (km/h) (WMO/RSMC)	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	18 Jan 2023 04:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-13.9, 56
2	18 Jan 2023 10:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-13.7, 53.8
3	18 Jan 2023 16:00	Tropical storm	95	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	83	-13.4, 52.8
4	18 Jan 2023 22:00	Tropical storm	116	no people	1.3 million people	Severe Tropical Storm	102	-13.5, 51.9
5	19 Jan 2023 04:00	Tropical storm	116	no people	2.8 million people	Severe Tropical Storm	102	-13.9, 51.1
6	19 Jan 2023 10:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	1.3 million people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-14.6, 50.4
7	19 Jan 2023 16:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	3.3 million people	Overland Depression	56	-15.4, 49.4	Madagascar
8	19 Jan 2023 22:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	2 million people	Overland Depression	56	-16, 48.4	Madagascar
8	20 Jan 2023 04:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Overland Depression	46	-16.4, 47.6	Madagascar
8	20 Jan 2023 10:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Overland Depression	46	-16.6, 47.1	Madagascar
8	20 Jan 2023 16:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Overland Depression	46	-17, 46.6	Madagascar
8	20 Jan 2023 22:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Overland Depression	46	-17.5, 46.2	Madagascar
8	21 Jan 2023 10:00	Tropical depression	42	no people	no people	Overland Depression	37	-18.2, 45.6	Madagascar
8	21 Jan 2023 22:00	Tropical depression	42	no people	no people	Overland Depression	37	-18.9, 44.9	Madagascar
8	22 Jan 2023 10:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Overland Depression	46	-19.2, 44.4	Madagascar
8	23 Jan 2023 22:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-19, 43.2
8	24 Jan 2023 10:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-18.8, 42.8
8	24 Jan 2023 22:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-18.6, 42.5

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Madagascar	3.3 million people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Mahajanga	Madagascar	1.8 million people
Toamasina	Madagascar	660000 people
Antsiranana	Madagascar	880000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Mandritsara	Mahajanga	Madagascar	City	-
Mananara	Toamasina	Madagascar	City	41000 people
Maroantsetra	Toamasina	Madagascar	City	24000 people
Ambato Boeni	Mahajanga	Madagascar	City	-
Marovoay	Mahajanga	Madagascar	City	31000 people
Andapa	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	20000 people
Antalaha	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	34000 people
Sambava	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	31000 people
Vohemar	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Mandritsara	WMA	307	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3700
Befandriana	WBD	250	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4100
Port Berge	WPB	65	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4200
Tsaratanana	TTS	327	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4300
Anahidrano		60				0
Antsohihy Ambalabe	WAI	28	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Mananara Nord	WMR	3	Civ.	Paved	No	4100
Maroantsetra	WMN	4	Civ.	Paved	No	4200
Bealanana	WBE	1120				0
Andapa	ZWA	473	Civ.	Paved	No	4100
Madirovalo	WMV	unknown				0
Doany	DOA	unknown				0
Antalaha Antsirabato	ANM	6	Civ.	Paved	No	3900
Sambava	SVB	6	Civ.	Paved	No	5900
Vohemar	VOH	6	Civ.	Paved	No	4200

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Mananara	MGWMR	Madagascar
Maroantsetra	MGWMN	Madagascar
Antataha	MGANM	Madagascar
Sambava	MGSVB	Madagascar
Vohemar		Madagascar

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Ambilivily		1954

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Ampaha, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 19 Jan 2023 11:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (32 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 8 of 19 Jan 2023 22:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	19 Jan 2023 11:00	Ampaha	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 11:00	Andrapengy	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 12:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 12:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 10:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 10:00	Sambava	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 11:00	Ambodipont-Sahana	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 11:00	Ambinany	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 12:00	Antalaha	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 12:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 10:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 09:00	Antohamaro	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2023 10:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 11:00	Amborimalana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 10:00	Ambohitralanana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 10:00	Antongompatatra	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 10:00	Bemanevika	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 12:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 12:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 09:00	Ampana Kanana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 10:00	Farahalana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 11:00	Anjahamarina	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 12:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 11:00	Antsirabato	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2023 11:00	Appontement	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 11:00	Ambalabe	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 12:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 12:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 12:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 10:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Jan 2023 10:00	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2023 10:00	Ambodivato	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.