Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for KELVIN-18 in Australia from 16 Feb 2018 06:00 UTC to 18 Feb 2018 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KELVIN-18

in Australia

18 Feb 2018 12 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KELVIN-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Australia
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	72 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (18 Feb 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	72 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
GFS Overall	77 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

77 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Feb 2018 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Australia	71

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	16 Feb 2018 06:00	73	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 Feb 2018 12:00	80	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	16 Feb 2018 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 Feb 2018 00:00	84	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 Feb 2018 06:00	69	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 Feb 2018 12:00	80	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	17 Feb 2018 18:00	81	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	18 Feb 2018 00:00	80	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	18 Feb 2018 06:00	80	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	18 Feb 2018 12:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 18 Feb 2018 12:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000
1	16 Feb 2018 06:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 Feb 2018 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	16 Feb 2018 18:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 Feb 2018 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 Feb 2018 06:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 Feb 2018 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	17 Feb 2018 18:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	18 Feb 2018 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	18 Feb 2018 06:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	18 Feb 2018 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Thangoo, Australia. This height is estimated for 18 Feb 2018 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 Feb 2018 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	18 Feb 2018 12:00	Thangoo	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 16:15	Derby	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 22:15	Broome	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 21:45	Waterbank	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 21:30	Kennedys Cottage	Australia	0.2
	20 Feb 2018 08:15	Setiroek	Indonesia	0.2
	20 Feb 2018 08:15	Pagatan	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2018 00:15	Fannie Bay	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2018 00:15	Parap	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2018 00:15	Darwin	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2018 00:15	Nightcliff	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2018 00:15	Ludmilla	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2018 00:15	Bagot	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2018 00:15	Leanyer	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2018 00:15	Berrimah	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 08:00	Segintong	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2018 00:15	The Palms	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2018 00:15	Larrakeyah	Australia	0.1
	21 Feb 2018 00:15	Knuckeys Lagoon	Australia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 03:45	Kualalupak	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 03:15	Pagetan	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 03:15	Tambakkarangan	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 03:15	Tabanio	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 03:15	Bawahalajung	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 03:00	Batakam	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 03:00	Kandangan	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 02:45	Sidoardjo	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 18:30	Pardoo	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 02:30	Pasuruan	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 02:30	Bayeman	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2018 02:30	Semisir	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2018 02:30	Semaras	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 02:15	Kalipang	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 02:15	Lemanbang	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 02:15	Tambakbaja	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 02:30	Remen	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 02:30	Plosokere	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 02:30	Djenu	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 02:30	Tuban	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 13:45	Boenati	Indonesia	0.1
	21 Feb 2018 08:15	Eucla Motel	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 14:00	Tapianbalai	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 02:15	Laboean	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 02:15	Padangan-wetan	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 02:15	Baliga	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 02:15	Sumberkuning	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 02:15	Sampang	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 02:00	Semanding	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 02:00	Podang	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 13:45	Kollan I	Australia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 02:15	Brondong	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 01:45	Probolinggo	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 02:00	Gending	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 02:00	Sawarangan	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 02:15	Kraksaan	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 02:15	Karagajar	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 01:30	Tambak	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 01:30	Sangkapura	Indonesia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.