Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for CARLOTTA-18 in Mexico from 14 Jun 2018 21:00 UTC to 19 Jun 2018 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CARLOTTA-18

in Mexico

17 Jun 2018 06 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CARLOTTA-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	71 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.1 m (17 Jun 11:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	71 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
HWRF Overall	56 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

56 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Jun 2018 06:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Mexico	240

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	14 Jun 2018 18:00	63	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	15 Jun 2018 00:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	15 Jun 2018 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 Jun 2018 18:00	66	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	16 Jun 2018 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	16 Jun 2018 06:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	16 Jun 2018 12:00	96	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	16 Jun 2018 18:00	67	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	17 Jun 2018 00:00	82	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	17 Jun 2018 06:00	71	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 17 Jun 2018 06:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000
1	14 Jun 2018 18:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	15 Jun 2018 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	15 Jun 2018 06:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 Jun 2018 18:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	16 Jun 2018 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	16 Jun 2018 06:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	16 Jun 2018 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	16 Jun 2018 18:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	17 Jun 2018 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	17 Jun 2018 06:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.1m in Santa Cruz, Mexico. This height is estimated for 17 Jun 2018 11:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 Jun 2018 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	17 Jun 2018 11:30	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 11:30	La Ventana	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 11:30	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 19:30	Novillero	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 19:30	Cuantla	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 20:45	San Blas	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 20:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 20:00	Monteon	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 20:00	La Lima	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 08:30	Boqueron	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 08:30	Pasito de la Senora	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 08:30	Tenixtepec	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 08:30	Buenavista	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 08:30	Solo Dios	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 19:15	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 19:15	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 19:15	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 06:15	El Papayo	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 12:45	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 17:45	Acapan	Guatemala	0.1
	17 Jun 2018 17:45	Champerico	Guatemala	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.