Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for ALVIN-19 Off-shore from 25 Jun 2019 21:00 UTC to 29 Jun 2019 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ALVIN-19

Off-shore

26 Jun 2019 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ALVIN-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	101 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (27 Jun 06:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	101 km/h	0.2 m	450 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	126 km/h	1.8 m	668 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

126 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 26 Jun 2019 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
	1	25 Jun 2019 18:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	2	26 Jun 2019 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 26 Jun 2019 00:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
	1	25 Jun 2019 18:00	200	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	2	26 Jun 2019 00:00	450	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in San Juan de la Costa, Mexico. This height is estimated for 27 Jun 2019 06:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 26 Jun 2019 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	27 Jun 2019 06:00	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.2
	26 Jun 2019 17:30	Los Burros	Mexico	0.2
	26 Jun 2019 01:00	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	26 Jun 2019 01:15	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.2
	26 Jun 2019 18:15	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.2
	26 Jun 2019 18:15	La Boca	Mexico	0.2
	26 Jun 2019 00:45	Altata	Mexico	0.2
	28 Jun 2019 08:00	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	28 Jun 2019 08:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	28 Jun 2019 08:00	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	28 Jun 2019 08:15	Datilito	Mexico	0.1
	28 Jun 2019 08:15	La Paz	Mexico	0.1
	28 Jun 2019 08:15	Rosario	Mexico	0.1
	26 Jun 2019 01:30	El Castillo	Mexico	0.1
	26 Jun 2019 06:15	La Ventana	Mexico	0.1
	26 Jun 2019 06:15	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.1
	26 Jun 2019 06:15	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.1
	26 Jun 2019 17:30	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.1
	28 Jun 2019 08:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	27 Jun 2019 19:30	San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	27 Jun 2019 19:30	Monteon	Mexico	0.1
	27 Jun 2019 19:30	La Lima	Mexico	0.1
	26 Jun 2019 01:30	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	27 Jun 2019 19:45	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.1
	27 Jun 2019 19:45	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.1
	28 Jun 2019 08:15	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.1
	28 Jun 2019 07:45	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.1
	26 Jun 2019 00:15	Chula	Mexico	0.1
	26 Jun 2019 00:15	Las Pinas	Mexico	0.1
	26 Jun 2019 12:30	La Florida	Mexico	0.1
	26 Jun 2019 12:30	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.1
	26 Jun 2019 06:15	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.1
	26 Jun 2019 06:15	La Ribera	Mexico	0.1
	26 Jun 2019 06:15	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	26 Jun 2019 06:15	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.1
	26 Jun 2019 06:15	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.1
	26 Jun 2019 18:00	Florida	Mexico	0.1
	26 Jun 2019 18:00	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.1
	26 Jun 2019 18:00	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	26 Jun 2019 12:00	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	28 Jun 2019 02:00	Dimas	Mexico	0.1
	28 Jun 2019 01:45	La Puerta	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.