Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for RAYMOND-19 in Mexico from 15 Nov 2019 03:00 UTC to 17 Nov 2019 15:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for RAYMOND-19

in Mexico

15 Nov 2019 12 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone RAYMOND-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	65 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (18 Nov 03:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	65 km/h	0.2 m	273 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	65 km/h	0.2 m	538 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

65 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Nov 2019 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Mexico	67

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	14 Nov 2019 12:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	15 Nov 2019 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	15 Nov 2019 12:00	86	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Nov 2019 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Mexico	59,538
50-100 mm	Mexico	304,697

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	14 Nov 2019 12:00	193	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	15 Nov 2019 00:00	150	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	15 Nov 2019 12:00	336	60 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mexico

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Datilito, Mexico. This height is estimated for 18 Nov 2019 03:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Nov 2019 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	18 Nov 2019 03:30	Datilito	Mexico	0.2
	18 Nov 2019 03:30	La Paz	Mexico	0.2
	18 Nov 2019 03:30	Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	15 Nov 2019 21:00	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.2
	15 Nov 2019 21:00	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	18 Nov 2019 04:00	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	18 Nov 2019 03:45	La Ventana	Mexico	0.2
	18 Nov 2019 03:45	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.2
	18 Nov 2019 03:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	18 Nov 2019 04:00	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.2
	18 Nov 2019 03:30	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	18 Nov 2019 03:45	Los Burros	Mexico	0.2
	18 Nov 2019 03:45	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.2
	15 Nov 2019 15:00	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.2
	17 Nov 2019 14:45	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	17 Nov 2019 14:45	Loreto	Mexico	0.2
	15 Nov 2019 15:15	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.2
	18 Nov 2019 03:45	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.2
	18 Nov 2019 03:45	Borabampo	Mexico	0.2
	18 Nov 2019 03:45	Ligui	Mexico	0.2
	18 Nov 2019 03:45	San Cosme	Mexico	0.1
	18 Nov 2019 03:45	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.1
	18 Nov 2019 03:45	San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	18 Nov 2019 03:45	Atanacio	Mexico	0.1
	18 Nov 2019 04:00	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.1
	18 Nov 2019 03:45	Tripui	Mexico	0.1
	18 Nov 2019 03:30	Mulege	Mexico	0.1
	18 Nov 2019 03:30	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.1
	15 Nov 2019 19:00	Salinas	Mexico	0.1
	15 Nov 2019 19:00	Buen Pais	Mexico	0.1
	15 Nov 2019 19:00	Alvarado	Mexico	0.1
	15 Nov 2019 19:00	Conejo	Mexico	0.1
	18 Nov 2019 03:30	San Juanico	Mexico	0.1
	18 Nov 2019 03:00	La Ribera	Mexico	0.1
	18 Nov 2019 03:00	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	18 Nov 2019 03:00	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.1
	18 Nov 2019 03:45	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	18 Nov 2019 03:30	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.1
	18 Nov 2019 03:45	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.1
	18 Nov 2019 03:30	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.1
	18 Nov 2019 03:15	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.1
	15 Nov 2019 21:30	Anton Lizardo	Mexico	0.1
	18 Nov 2019 03:45	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.1
	17 Nov 2019 21:00	Novillero	Mexico	0.1
	17 Nov 2019 21:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.1
	17 Nov 2019 21:00	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.1
	17 Nov 2019 21:00	San Lucas	Mexico	0.1
	17 Nov 2019 21:00	Pozo de Cota	Mexico	0.1
	17 Nov 2019 21:00	El Tule	Mexico	0.1
	18 Nov 2019 03:30	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.1
	17 Nov 2019 21:15	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.1
	17 Nov 2019 21:15	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1
	18 Nov 2019 01:30	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.1
	15 Nov 2019 17:00	Veracruz	Mexico	0.1
	15 Nov 2019 21:30	Salmoral	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.