Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BLAKE-20 in Australia from 05 Jan 2020 18:00 UTC to 08 Jan 2020 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BLAKE-20

in Australia

06 Jan 2020 18 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BLAKE-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Australia
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	72 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.8 m (06 Jan 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	72 km/h	0.8 m	77 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	94 km/h	1.1 m	449 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

94 km/h

Up to 8 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Jan 2020 18:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Australia	8,299

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	05 Jan 2020 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	Australia
2	06 Jan 2020 00:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	Australia
3	06 Jan 2020 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	Australia
4	06 Jan 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	Australia
5	06 Jan 2020 18:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	Australia

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Jan 2020 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Australia	30
100-250 mm	Indonesia, Australia	18,840	+
	Indonesia	11,024
	Australia	7,816
50-100 mm	Indonesia, Australia	21,120,217	+
	Indonesia	21,111,951
	Australia	8,266

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	05 Jan 2020 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	Australia
2	06 Jan 2020 00:00	136	Few people		-	-	-	-	Australia
3	06 Jan 2020 06:00	87	-	-	-	-	-	-	Australia
4	06 Jan 2020 12:00	105	Few people		-	-	-	-	Australia
5	06 Jan 2020 18:00	312	20 thousand			-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.8m in Derby, Australia. This height is estimated for 06 Jan 2020 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Jan 2020 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	06 Jan 2020 18:00	Derby	Australia	0.8
	07 Jan 2020 03:30	Thangoo	Australia	0.4
	07 Jan 2020 03:15	Broome	Australia	0.4
	06 Jan 2020 19:45	Pender	Australia	0.4
	07 Jan 2020 03:30	Waterbank	Australia	0.3
	06 Jan 2020 19:15	Kollan I	Australia	0.3
	07 Jan 2020 02:45	Kennedys Cottage	Australia	0.3
	07 Jan 2020 02:45	Blimbing	Indonesia	0.2
	07 Jan 2020 02:45	Dadapan	Indonesia	0.2
	07 Jan 2020 02:45	Banyuwangi	Indonesia	0.2
	07 Jan 2020 02:45	Banjuwangi	Indonesia	0.2
	07 Jan 2020 02:45	Soega	Indonesia	0.2
	07 Jan 2020 02:45	Gilimanuk	Indonesia	0.2
	07 Jan 2020 02:45	Penginoeman	Indonesia	0.2
	07 Jan 2020 02:45	Belimbingsari	Indonesia	0.2
	07 Jan 2020 02:45	Tjandikesuma	Indonesia	0.2
	07 Jan 2020 02:45	Banjoebiroe	Indonesia	0.2
	08 Jan 2020 03:45	Pardoo	Australia	0.2
	08 Jan 2020 08:00	Sidaju	Indonesia	0.1
	08 Jan 2020 07:45	Aermata	Indonesia	0.1
	08 Jan 2020 07:45	Klampis	Indonesia	0.1
	08 Jan 2020 07:45	Sapulu	Indonesia	0.1
	08 Jan 2020 08:15	Tlagabiru	Indonesia	0.1
	08 Jan 2020 08:15	Banjoeates	Indonesia	0.1
	07 Jan 2020 00:00	Muntjar	Indonesia	0.1
	08 Jan 2020 08:15	Ketapang	Indonesia	0.1
	08 Jan 2020 08:00	Kelapang	Indonesia	0.1
	08 Jan 2020 13:00	Condon	Australia	0.1
	08 Jan 2020 08:00	Sokabana	Indonesia	0.1
	09 Jan 2020 01:30	Sangkapura	Indonesia	0.1
	09 Jan 2020 01:30	Tambak	Indonesia	0.1
	06 Jan 2020 18:00	Mardie	Australia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.