Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BLAKE-20
in Australia
09 Jan 2020 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BLAKE-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 126 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.9 m (06 Jan 06:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 126 km/h 0.9 m 539 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 126 km/h 0.9 m 539 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Jan 2020 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia12,281 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 05 Jan 2020 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 2 05 Jan 2020 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 3 06 Jan 2020 00:00 83 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 4 06 Jan 2020 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 07 Jan 2020 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 07 Jan 2020 12:00 72 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 7 08 Jan 2020 00:00 61 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 8 08 Jan 2020 12:00 65 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 9 09 Jan 2020 00:00 126 -
- - - - - Australia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

539 mm

Up to 8.4 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Jan 2020 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmIndonesia, Australia509,047
+
Indonesia494,984 
Australia14,063 
100-250 mmIndonesia, Timor-Leste, Australia7,883,537
+
Indonesia7,707,285 
Timor-Leste158,988 
Australia17,264 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Timor-Leste, Australia20,301,322
+
Indonesia19,734,788 
Timor-Leste551,898 
Australia14,636 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 05 Jan 2020 00:00 309 Few people
- - - - Indonesia, Timor-Leste, Australia
Blue 2 05 Jan 2020 12:00 242 Few people
- - - - Indonesia, Australia
Blue 3 06 Jan 2020 00:00 161 10 thousand
- - - - Indonesia, Australia
Blue 4 06 Jan 2020 12:00 108 Few people
- - - - Australia
Blue 5 07 Jan 2020 00:00 185 Few people
- - - - Indonesia, Australia
Blue 6 07 Jan 2020 12:00 166 360 thousand
- - - - Indonesia, Australia
Blue 7 08 Jan 2020 00:00 106 -
- - - - - Indonesia, Australia
Blue 8 08 Jan 2020 12:00 116 Few people
- - - - Australia
Blue 9 09 Jan 2020 00:00 508 680 thousand
- - - Indonesia, Timor-Leste, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.9 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.9m in Derby, Australia. This height is estimated for 06 Jan 2020 06:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Jan 2020 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Jan 2020 06:15 Derby Australia  0.9
05 Jan 2020 22:15 Kollan I Australia  0.6
06 Jan 2020 05:15 Pender Australia  0.6
06 Jan 2020 23:45 Thangoo Australia  0.5
06 Jan 2020 23:45 Broome Australia  0.4
07 Jan 2020 00:30 Waterbank Australia  0.3
07 Jan 2020 00:30 Kennedys Cottage Australia  0.3
08 Jan 2020 07:00 Pardoo Australia  0.2
08 Jan 2020 19:30 Condon Australia  0.2
05 Jan 2020 11:15 Blimbing Indonesia  0.2
05 Jan 2020 11:15 Dadapan Indonesia  0.2
05 Jan 2020 11:15 Banyuwangi Indonesia  0.2
05 Jan 2020 11:15 Banjuwangi Indonesia  0.2
05 Jan 2020 11:15 Soega Indonesia  0.2
05 Jan 2020 11:15 Gilimanuk Indonesia  0.2
05 Jan 2020 11:15 Penginoeman Indonesia  0.2
05 Jan 2020 11:15 Belimbingsari Indonesia  0.2
05 Jan 2020 11:15 Tjandikesuma Indonesia  0.2
05 Jan 2020 11:15 Banjoebiroe Indonesia  0.2
05 Jan 2020 15:00 Karratha Australia  0.2
05 Jan 2020 11:15 Muntjar Indonesia  0.2
05 Jan 2020 09:15 Port Hedland Australia  0.1
05 Jan 2020 03:00 Kencong Indonesia  0.1
05 Jan 2020 03:00 Lodjedjer Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 02:00 Aermata Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 02:00 Klampis Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 02:00 Sapulu Indonesia  0.1
06 Jan 2020 07:00 Wickham Australia  0.1
06 Jan 2020 07:00 Point Samson Australia  0.1
06 Jan 2020 07:00 Cossack Australia  0.1
06 Jan 2020 08:45 Mardie Australia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 02:30 Sidaju Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 02:15 Tlagabiru Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 02:15 Banjoeates Indonesia  0.1
05 Jan 2020 11:15 Cupel Indonesia  0.1
05 Jan 2020 11:15 Banjuwedang Indonesia  0.1
05 Jan 2020 11:15 Prancak Indonesia  0.1
05 Jan 2020 11:15 Negara Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 02:00 Ketapang Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 02:15 Kelapang Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 02:45 Sokabana Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 03:15 Ambunten-timu Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 03:15 Belukares Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 03:15 Sumenep Indonesia  0.1
06 Jan 2020 09:30 East Lewis I Australia  0.1
06 Jan 2020 09:30 Dampier Australia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 02:45 Sangkapura Indonesia  0.1
09 Jan 2020 04:15 Tambak Indonesia  0.1