Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for MARIE-20 Off-shore from 29 Sep 2020 09:00 UTC to 07 Oct 2020 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIE-20

Off-shore

02 Oct 2020 12 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MARIE-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	148 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (03 Oct 06:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	148 km/h	0.3 m	211 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	180 km/h	0.4 m	792 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 02 Oct 2020 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	29 Sep 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	29 Sep 2020 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	29 Sep 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	30 Sep 2020 00:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	30 Sep 2020 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	30 Sep 2020 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	30 Sep 2020 18:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	01 Oct 2020 00:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	01 Oct 2020 06:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	01 Oct 2020 12:00	148	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	01 Oct 2020 18:00	144	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	02 Oct 2020 00:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	02 Oct 2020 06:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	02 Oct 2020 12:00	169	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

792 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 02 Oct 2020 12:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000
1	29 Sep 2020 06:00	192	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	29 Sep 2020 12:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	29 Sep 2020 18:00	177	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	30 Sep 2020 00:00	145	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	30 Sep 2020 06:00	152	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	30 Sep 2020 12:00	152	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	30 Sep 2020 18:00	164	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	01 Oct 2020 00:00	98	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	01 Oct 2020 06:00	203	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	01 Oct 2020 12:00	195	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	01 Oct 2020 18:00	196	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	02 Oct 2020 00:00	198	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	02 Oct 2020 06:00	207	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	02 Oct 2020 12:00	458	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Cabo Tepoca, Mexico. This height is estimated for 03 Oct 2020 06:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 02 Oct 2020 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	03 Oct 2020 06:00	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2020 04:00	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2020 03:15	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.3
	04 Oct 2020 21:45	Tecomate	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2020 03:00	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 03:00	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 15:30	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 12:15	Datilito	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 12:15	La Paz	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 12:15	Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 21:45	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 01:00	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 01:00	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 05:00	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 03:00	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 10:45	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 10:45	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 10:15	San Rafael	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 23:00	Guasimas	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 09:30	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 22:30	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 22:30	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 22:30	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 09:15	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 09:15	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.2
	02 Oct 2020 19:45	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 10:15	Mulege	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 22:15	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	04 Oct 2020 22:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2020 03:00	Queretaro	Mexico	0.2
	05 Oct 2020 10:30	Tastiota	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 22:15	Empalme	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 22:45	Cachoana	Mexico	0.1
	02 Oct 2020 19:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	02 Oct 2020 19:45	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.1
	02 Oct 2020 19:45	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 22:30	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 11:00	El Barril	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 22:15	Guaymas	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 10:45	San Juanico	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 10:45	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 11:45	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 11:45	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 09:30	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 10:15	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.1
	02 Oct 2020 19:30	La Puerta	Mexico	0.1
	02 Oct 2020 19:45	Marmol	Mexico	0.1
	02 Oct 2020 19:45	Florida	Mexico	0.1
	02 Oct 2020 19:45	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 10:30	San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 10:30	Atanacio	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 10:30	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 10:30	Borabampo	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 10:45	Loreto	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 10:45	Ligui	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 10:45	Tripui	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 02:45	Cedros	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 10:15	San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 10:30	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 10:30	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 10:30	San Cosme	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 10:15	Los Burros	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 10:30	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 22:30	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 22:00	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 10:15	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 10:30	Liliba	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 23:15	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 03:15	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 22:45	Altata	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 10:00	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 22:30	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.1
	02 Oct 2020 21:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	02 Oct 2020 21:15	La Ventana	Mexico	0.1
	02 Oct 2020 21:15	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.1
	02 Oct 2020 21:15	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.1
	02 Oct 2020 20:00	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	02 Oct 2020 20:00	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	02 Oct 2020 19:45	La Lima	Mexico	0.1
	02 Oct 2020 19:45	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2020 11:15	El Castillo	Mexico	0.1
	02 Oct 2020 16:45	Monteon	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2020 02:45	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.1
	05 Oct 2020 00:15	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.