Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHALANE-20
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Botswana
28 Dec 2020 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHALANE-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Exposed population 420 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 79 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (28 Dec 22:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 79 km/h 0.2 m 22 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 155 km/h 1.3 m 451 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

155 km/h

Up to 630 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 Dec 2020 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Mozambique415,447 
Tropical StormMozambique, Zimbabwe626,416
+
Mozambique621,016 
Zimbabwe5,400 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 24 Dec 2020 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 25 Dec 2020 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 25 Dec 2020 06:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 25 Dec 2020 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 25 Dec 2020 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 26 Dec 2020 00:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 26 Dec 2020 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 26 Dec 2020 12:00 94 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 9 26 Dec 2020 18:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 27 Dec 2020 00:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 27 Dec 2020 06:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 27 Dec 2020 12:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 27 Dec 2020 18:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 28 Dec 2020 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 28 Dec 2020 06:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 28 Dec 2020 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 28 Dec 2020 18:00 209 420 thousand
- - - - Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 Dec 2020 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMozambique07 
100-250 mmMalawi, Zimbabwe, Mozambique841,597
+
Mozambique693,831 
Malawi21,237 
Zimbabwe126,529 
50-100 mmMozambique, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe1,146,306
+
Mozambique355,425 
Malawi32,490 
Zambia3,028 
Zimbabwe755,363 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 24 Dec 2020 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 25 Dec 2020 00:00 22 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 25 Dec 2020 06:00 20 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 25 Dec 2020 12:00 18 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 25 Dec 2020 18:00 23 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 26 Dec 2020 00:00 27 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 26 Dec 2020 06:00 23 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 26 Dec 2020 12:00 26 20 thousand - - - - - - Madagascar
Blue 9 26 Dec 2020 18:00 18 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 27 Dec 2020 00:00 14 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 27 Dec 2020 06:00 13 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 27 Dec 2020 12:00 12 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 27 Dec 2020 18:00 14 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 28 Dec 2020 00:00 15 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 28 Dec 2020 06:00 20 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 28 Dec 2020 12:00 20 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 28 Dec 2020 18:00 512 840 thousand
- - - Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Kamendriky, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 28 Dec 2020 22:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 28 Dec 2020 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
28 Dec 2020 22:45 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 22:45 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 23:00 Antunes Mozambique  0.2
28 Dec 2020 23:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.2
28 Dec 2020 23:00 Beira Mozambique  0.2
28 Dec 2020 23:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.2
28 Dec 2020 18:00 Mbweni Tanzania  0.2
28 Dec 2020 18:00 Doriya Tanzania  0.2
28 Dec 2020 18:00 Konduchi Tanzania  0.2
28 Dec 2020 22:30 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 22:45 Manica Mozambique  0.2
28 Dec 2020 22:30 Ampara Mozambique  0.2
28 Dec 2020 22:30 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.2
28 Dec 2020 22:45 Marovato Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 22:45 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 22:45 Analalava Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 22:45 Androlavy Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 22:45 Ananalava Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 22:30 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 21:45 Mkadini Tanzania  0.2
28 Dec 2020 21:45 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.2
28 Dec 2020 21:45 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.2
28 Dec 2020 22:15 Ambanhe Mozambique  0.2
28 Dec 2020 22:30 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 22:30 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 22:45 Manampatra Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 22:45 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 22:45 Katsepy Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 22:45 Majunga Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 22:45 Boanamary Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 22:45 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 22:45 Moraharivo Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 22:45 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 22:45 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 22:15 Ali Mozambique  0.2
28 Dec 2020 22:15 Injaca Mozambique  0.2
28 Dec 2020 22:15 Calajulo Mozambique  0.2
28 Dec 2020 22:15 Lumbo Mozambique  0.2
28 Dec 2020 22:15 Mosengeri Mozambique  0.2
28 Dec 2020 22:15 Mocambique Mozambique  0.2
28 Dec 2020 21:30 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 21:30 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 21:30 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 21:30 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 21:15 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 21:15 Ampasina Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 21:15 Antakobola Madagascar  0.2
28 Dec 2020 20:45 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.2
28 Dec 2020 20:45 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.2
28 Dec 2020 20:45 Mulia Mozambique  0.2
28 Dec 2020 20:45 Barra Mozambique  0.2
28 Dec 2020 22:30 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:15 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:15 Mendozo Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:15 Magromane Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 21:15 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 22:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 22:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 21:30 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 21:30 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 21:30 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 21:30 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 21:30 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 21:15 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:30 Ocone Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:30 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 22:45 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 21:45 Chiloane Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 22:00 Metambanhe Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 23:15 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 23:15 Antsahampano Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 23:15 Ambohimena Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 23:15 Ambolikapika Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 23:15 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 23:15 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 23:15 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:15 Joannisse Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:15 Bela Vista Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:15 Maziba Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:15 Aiai Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:15 Machavene Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:15 Cimbene Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 21:00 Divinhe Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:45 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:45 Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 21:30 Panaca Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:15 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 21:15 Tanambe Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 21:15 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:00 Canhamba Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:00 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:00 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:30 Catembe Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:30 Maputo Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:45 Laisse Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:45 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:45 Jo Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:45 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 18:45 Machesse Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 22:45 Kolekole Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 22:45 Mvuni Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 22:45 Kiriwani Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 22:45 Tanga Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 18:15 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 19:00 Vila Luisa Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 19:00 D'lhelo Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 23:45 Msindaji Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 23:45 Mchungu Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 23:45 Nyambati Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 23:45 Salale Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 23:45 Kiombani Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 21:15 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 21:15 Tama Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 21:15 Jonja Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 22:15 Sadani Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 19:45 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 19:45 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 19:45 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 19:00 Amado Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 21:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 21:00 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 21:00 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:30 Natalia Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:30 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 21:15 Manompana Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 21:15 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 21:15 Manampea Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 21:15 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 21:15 Onara Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 21:15 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 22:15 Caramaca Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 22:15 Mocareja Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 23:00 Ambohibe Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 23:00 Andranopasy Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:00 Tsiboka Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:00 Ankoba Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 21:45 Bingue Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 18:30 Rupia Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 19:30 Ankevo Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 19:30 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 19:30 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 19:30 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 19:30 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 19:30 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:45 Afonso Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:45 Catine Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:45 Caulino Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 22:15 Mtanga Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 22:15 Kilwa Kisiwani Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 22:15 Kilwa Masoko Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 22:15 Songa Manara I Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 22:15 Mkwaja Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 23:30 Voloina Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 23:30 Manambia Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 23:30 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 23:30 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 23:30 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 22:45 Sakura Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 22:45 Handeru Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 22:45 Ushongo Mabaoni Tanzania  0.1
28 Dec 2020 23:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
28 Dec 2020 22:30 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 20:00 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
28 Dec 2020 23:15 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.1