Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for EIGHTEEN-21 in Australia from 31 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC to 05 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for EIGHTEEN-21

in Australia

01 Feb 2021 12 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EIGHTEEN-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Australia
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	47 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (04 Feb 07:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	47 km/h	0.4 m	13 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	83 km/h	1.1 m	444 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

83 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Feb 2021 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Australia	28

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	31 Jan 2021 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	31 Jan 2021 12:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	01 Feb 2021 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	01 Feb 2021 12:00	65	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 01 Feb 2021 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Indonesia, Australia	338	+
	Indonesia	292
	Australia	46
100-250 mm	Indonesia, Australia	2,966,406	+
	Indonesia	2,964,964
	Australia	1,442
50-100 mm	Indonesia, Christmas Island, Australia	34,289,457	+
	Indonesia	34,277,498
	Christmas Island	1,419
	Australia	10,540

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	31 Jan 2021 00:00	15	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	31 Jan 2021 12:00	15	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	01 Feb 2021 00:00	15	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	01 Feb 2021 12:00	287	3 million				-	-	-	Indonesia, Christmas Island, Australia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Learmonth, Australia. This height is estimated for 04 Feb 2021 07:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 01 Feb 2021 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	04 Feb 2021 07:15	Learmonth	Australia	0.4
	02 Feb 2021 04:30	Point Samson	Australia	0.3
	02 Feb 2021 04:30	Cossack	Australia	0.3
	04 Feb 2021 05:45	Mardie	Australia	0.3
	04 Feb 2021 03:45	Dampier	Australia	0.3
	04 Feb 2021 03:45	Karratha	Australia	0.3
	04 Feb 2021 04:45	Onslow	Australia	0.3
	04 Feb 2021 06:45	Exmouth	Australia	0.3
	02 Feb 2021 05:15	Wickham	Australia	0.3
	04 Feb 2021 04:45	East Lewis I	Australia	0.2
	04 Feb 2021 05:00	Glenroy	Australia	0.2
	04 Feb 2021 07:15	Warroora	Australia	0.2
	04 Feb 2021 07:15	Gnaraloo	Australia	0.2
	04 Feb 2021 04:15	Cardabia	Australia	0.2
	04 Feb 2021 04:30	Ningaloo	Australia	0.2
	04 Feb 2021 04:15	Bundera Bundera	Australia	0.2
	01 Feb 2021 20:45	Guring	Indonesia	0.2
	01 Feb 2021 20:45	Kota Agung	Indonesia	0.2
	04 Feb 2021 08:45	Cape Cuvier	Australia	0.2
	04 Feb 2021 04:15	Ah Chong I	Australia	0.2
	04 Feb 2021 12:00	Quobba	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 07:15	Dalyellup	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 07:15	Bunbury	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 07:15	Binningup	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 07:15	Picton	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 07:15	Eaton	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 07:15	Burragenup	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 07:15	Australind	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 07:15	Vasse	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 07:15	Broadwater	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 07:15	Busselton	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 07:15	Wonnerup	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 07:15	Ludlow	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 07:00	Myalup	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 08:00	Carnarvon	Australia	0.1
	01 Feb 2021 17:15	Babakancibeber	Indonesia	0.1
	01 Feb 2021 17:15	Kolitjaah	Indonesia	0.1
	01 Feb 2021 17:15	Tjiteureup	Indonesia	0.1
	01 Feb 2021 17:15	Labuhan	Indonesia	0.1
	01 Feb 2021 17:15	Kaduperasi	Indonesia	0.1
	01 Feb 2021 14:15	Gregory	Australia	0.1
	01 Feb 2021 14:15	Lynton	Australia	0.1
	01 Feb 2021 23:00	Milyeannup	Australia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.