Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for PAMELA-21
in Mexico
12 Oct 2021 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAMELA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 2 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 155 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (13 Oct 12:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 155 km/h 0.4 m 180 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 162 km/h 0.3 m 404 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

162 km/h

Up to 2 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Oct 2021 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Mexico2,105 
Tropical StormMexico739,691 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 11 Oct 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 11 Oct 2021 12:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 11 Oct 2021 18:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 12 Oct 2021 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 12 Oct 2021 06:00 191 2 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Oct 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico16,543 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico779,836
+
United States57,177 
Mexico722,658 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico8,080,590
+
United States7,671,439 
Mexico409,150 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 291 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 272 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 285 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 163 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 11 Oct 2021 06:00 137 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 11 Oct 2021 12:00 226 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 11 Oct 2021 18:00 187 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 12 Oct 2021 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 12 Oct 2021 06:00 418 800 thousand
- - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Perihuete, Mexico. This height is estimated for 13 Oct 2021 12:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 12 Oct 2021 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
13 Oct 2021 12:30 Perihuete Mexico  0.4
13 Oct 2021 12:30 Dimas Mexico  0.4
13 Oct 2021 22:15 La Gloria Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 22:15 Chaparral Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 10:00 Marmol Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 01:15 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:00 Novillero Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:30 La Boca Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 09:45 Florida Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 09:45 Mazatlan Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:15 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:15 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:15 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:15 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 05:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 05:15 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 05:15 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Corpus Christi United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:00 North Beach United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Gardendale United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Doyle United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Orange Grove United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Portland United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Gregory United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 18:00 Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 15:45 Estes United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 15:45 Rockport United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 15:45 Shell Ridge United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 15:45 Copano Village United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 15:45 Fulton United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 15:45 Holiday Beach United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 15:45 Lamar United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 19:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 19:45 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 21:30 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 21:30 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 09:30 Barron Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 17:45 Ingleside United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 17:45 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 17:45 Port Ingleside United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 17:45 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 17:45 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 17:45 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 17:45 Aransas Pass United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 06:45 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 07:45 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 06:45 Puertecitos Mexico  0.2
14 Oct 2021 11:00 Riviera United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 11:00 Vattman United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 11:00 Loyola Beach United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 11:00 Orange Grove United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 11:00 La Parra Landing United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 06:45 La Choya Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:45 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 07:00 Corrales Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 07:00 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 07:00 Ipala Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 12:45 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 12:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 12:45 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 06:30 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 20:00 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 08:00 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 06:00 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 07:30 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 07:30 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 17:45 Peary Place United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 17:45 Flour Bluff United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 19:15 Altata Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 05:15 San Blas Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 05:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
15 Oct 2021 00:45 Maudlowe United States  0.1
15 Oct 2021 00:45 Tivoli United States  0.1
15 Oct 2021 00:45 Spanish Village United States  0.1
15 Oct 2021 00:45 Austwell United States  0.1
15 Oct 2021 00:45 Long Mott United States  0.1
15 Oct 2021 00:45 Seadrift United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 03:00 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 11:30 Carancahua United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 11:30 El Campo Club Community United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 11:30 Camp Hulen United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 11:30 Palacios United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 11:30 Collegeport United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 11:30 Simpsonville United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 11:30 Citrus Grove United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 21:00 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 21:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:15 Loreto Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 13:00 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:45 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 23:00 Datilito Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 23:00 La Paz Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 23:00 Rosario Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:15 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:15 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:15 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:15 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 20:45 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 10:30 La Lima Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 17:30 Mustang Beach United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 17:30 Port Aransas United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:00 Monteon Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 01:45 Yarborough United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 13:45 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:15 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 04:45 El Tomale Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 04:45 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 04:45 Cunano Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 11:30 Indianola United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 11:30 Olivia United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 11:30 Weedhaven United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 11:30 Port Alto United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 11:30 Port O'Connor United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 02:30 Todos Santos Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 11:30 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 11:30 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 07:15 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 Quinones Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 12:30 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.1
15 Oct 2021 06:00 Matagorda United States  0.1
15 Oct 2021 06:00 Chinquapin United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:00 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:00 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 Cedros Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:00 Molino Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 16:45 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 12:45 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 12:45 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:00 El Pescadero Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 00:00 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:45 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 13:30 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:00 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 09:30 La Florida Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 09:30 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 12:30 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:30 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:00 La Tinaja Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Ligui Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Tripui Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:15 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:30 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 12:45 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:45 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 12:30 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 00:00 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 Liliba Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 05:45 El Tule Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 18:45 Pizota Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 San Jose Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:00 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:00 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:00 La Trinadad Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 16:45 City Arroyo United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 16:45 Port Mansfield United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 16:45 Arroyo City Subdivision Colonia United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 16:45 Buena Vista United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 04:45 San Lucas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 San Pedro United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 Wilmington United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 Signal Hill United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 Belmont Shore United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 Surfside United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 Seal Beach United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 Sunset Beach United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:30 Huntington Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 13:00 Rancho San Francisco Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 13:00 Colonia Camalu Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 02:15 Chola Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:15 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 04:30 Pozo de Cota Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 02:45 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:30 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 11:45 Magnolia Beach United States  0.1