Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for ROSLYN-22
in Mexico
20 Oct 2022 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ROSLYN-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 79 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (20 Oct 07:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 79 km/h 0.3 m 131 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 0.4 m 415 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

173 km/h

Up to 80 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 20 Oct 2022 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico84,592
+
United States53,344 
Mexico31,248 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 20 Oct 2022 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 20 Oct 2022 06:00 184 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 20 Oct 2022 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico13,319 
100-250 mmMexico, Honduras818,884
+
Mexico50,046 
Honduras768,838 
50-100 mmMexico, Guatemala, Honduras5,407,369
+
Mexico1,175,548 
Guatemala3,074,385 
Honduras1,157,435 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 20 Oct 2022 00:00 108 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 2 20 Oct 2022 06:00 546 830 thousand
- - - Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in El Cuyo, Mexico. This height is estimated for 20 Oct 2022 07:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 20 Oct 2022 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
20 Oct 2022 07:15 El Cuyo Mexico  0.3
20 Oct 2022 06:00 Ciudad del Carmen Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:00 Victoria Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Boqueron Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Pasito de la Senora Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2022 07:45 Chipepte Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:00 Balchacah Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2022 08:30 Sanchez Magallanes Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:00 Boca Nueva Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2022 07:00 San Pedro Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2022 07:00 La Concepion Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:15 Francisco I. Madero Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:15 Monte de Oro Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:00 Paso Real Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Del Monte Forest United States  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Pebble Beach United States  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Carmel Highlands United States  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Carmel-by-the-Sea United States  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Pacific Grove United States  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Carmel United States  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Monterey United States  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Del Rey Oaks United States  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Workfield United States  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Seaside United States  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Ord United States  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Marina United States  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Moss Landing United States  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Neponset United States  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Nashua United States  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Castroville United States  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Santa Cruz United States  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Twin Lakes United States  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Live Oak United States  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Opal Cliffs United States  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Capitola United States  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Soquel United States  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Aptos United States  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Rio del Mar United States  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Rob Roy Junction United States  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:30 La Selva Beach United States  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Ellicott United States  0.2
20 Oct 2022 07:00 Barra de San Jose Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2022 07:45 Tonala Mexico  0.2
20 Oct 2022 06:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 09:45 Puerto de San Benito Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Chisahcab Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Arrozal Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 06:00 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 06:00 Rio Lagartos Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Natleys Landing United States  0.1
20 Oct 2022 09:15 Guerrero El Salvador  0.1
20 Oct 2022 09:15 El Capulin Honduras  0.1
20 Oct 2022 09:15 El Ajustillo Honduras  0.1
20 Oct 2022 09:15 Puerto Grande Honduras  0.1
20 Oct 2022 09:15 Gualora Honduras  0.1
20 Oct 2022 09:15 Las Piletas Honduras  0.1
20 Oct 2022 09:15 El Moray Honduras  0.1
20 Oct 2022 09:15 Estero del Espino Honduras  0.1
20 Oct 2022 09:15 Campamento Honduras  0.1
20 Oct 2022 09:15 El Hato Honduras  0.1
20 Oct 2022 09:15 Barrancones Honduras  0.1
20 Oct 2022 09:15 Cedeno Honduras  0.1
20 Oct 2022 08:45 Las Barrillas Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 08:45 Coatzacoalcos Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Solo Dios Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 10:00 Ocos Guatemala  0.1
20 Oct 2022 09:00 Hidalgo Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 09:30 Condega Honduras  0.1
20 Oct 2022 09:30 Buena Vista Honduras  0.1
20 Oct 2022 09:30 Albania Honduras  0.1
20 Oct 2022 09:30 El Tambor Honduras  0.1
20 Oct 2022 10:00 Tecolutla Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 10:00 La Guadalupe Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 10:00 Monte Gordo Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 10:30 Mangle Alto Nicaragua  0.1
20 Oct 2022 10:00 El Chico Guatemala  0.1
20 Oct 2022 08:45 Chiltepec Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 06:00 Hoquel Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 06:00 Champoton Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 06:00 Haltunchen Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 09:15 El Carmen Nicaragua  0.1
20 Oct 2022 09:15 Las Pozas Nicaragua  0.1
20 Oct 2022 12:00 Alvarado Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 12:00 Conejo Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Big Sur United States  0.1
20 Oct 2022 06:30 Posts United States  0.1
20 Oct 2022 06:45 Buenavista Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 09:15 El Capulin Nicaragua  0.1
20 Oct 2022 10:30 La Chacara Nicaragua  0.1
20 Oct 2022 08:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 08:00 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 07:45 San Blas Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 07:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 06:00 Sisal Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 06:00 Chelem Mexico  0.1
20 Oct 2022 08:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.1