Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for TARA-18 in Mexico from 14 Oct 2018 15:00 UTC to 17 Oct 2018 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for TARA-18

in Mexico

15 Oct 2018 18 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone TARA-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	95 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (18 Oct 04:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	95 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
GFS Overall	155 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

155 km/h

Up to 20 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Oct 2018 18:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Mexico	20,472

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	14 Oct 2018 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	14 Oct 2018 18:00	92	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	15 Oct 2018 00:00	70	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 Oct 2018 06:00	87	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	15 Oct 2018 12:00	74	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	15 Oct 2018 18:00	95	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 15 Oct 2018 18:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000
1	14 Oct 2018 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	14 Oct 2018 18:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	15 Oct 2018 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 Oct 2018 06:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	15 Oct 2018 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	15 Oct 2018 18:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Port Mansfield, United States. This height is estimated for 18 Oct 2018 04:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Oct 2018 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	18 Oct 2018 04:15	Port Mansfield	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2018 15:00	Yarborough	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2018 01:30	Holly Beach	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2018 01:30	Laguna Vista	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2018 01:30	Laguna Heights	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2018 01:30	Port Isabel	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2018 01:30	South Padre Island	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2018 14:30	El Martillo	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2018 01:15	Kopernik Shores	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2018 01:15	Boca Chica	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2018 15:45	Flour Bluff	United States	0.1
	17 Oct 2018 05:30	Mulege	Mexico	0.1
	17 Oct 2018 05:30	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.1
	17 Oct 2018 18:30	Arista	Mexico	0.1
	17 Oct 2018 21:15	El Roble	Mexico	0.1
	17 Oct 2018 21:15	Cachimba	Mexico	0.1
	15 Oct 2018 21:30	Huajapan	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2018 16:00	Caruthers Cove Colonia	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2018 16:00	Port Ingleside	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2018 16:00	Mustang Beach	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2018 16:00	Port Aransas	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2018 04:15	Fraccionamiento Nuevo Leon	Mexico	0.1
	16 Oct 2018 15:45	Tecomate	Mexico	0.1
	16 Oct 2018 15:45	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2018 16:00	Indian Trails Lane Colonia	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2018 16:00	Country Estates Colonia	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2018 16:00	Aransas Pass	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2018 16:00	Estes	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2018 16:00	Rockport	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2018 16:00	Shell Ridge	United States	0.1
	17 Oct 2018 19:00	Conejo	Mexico	0.1
	16 Oct 2018 00:30	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.1
	16 Oct 2018 00:30	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2018 15:45	Copano Village	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2018 15:45	Fulton	United States	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.