Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for TARA-18 in Mexico from 14 Oct 2018 15:00 UTC to 17 Oct 2018 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for TARA-18

in Mexico

16 Oct 2018 12 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone TARA-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	91 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (18 Oct 07:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	91 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
GFS Overall	155 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

155 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 16 Oct 2018 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	14 Oct 2018 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	14 Oct 2018 18:00	92	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	15 Oct 2018 00:00	70	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 Oct 2018 06:00	87	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	15 Oct 2018 12:00	74	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	15 Oct 2018 18:00	95	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	16 Oct 2018 00:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	16 Oct 2018 06:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	16 Oct 2018 12:00	91	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 16 Oct 2018 12:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000
1	14 Oct 2018 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	14 Oct 2018 18:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	15 Oct 2018 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 Oct 2018 06:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	15 Oct 2018 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	15 Oct 2018 18:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	16 Oct 2018 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	16 Oct 2018 06:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	16 Oct 2018 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Port Mansfield, United States. This height is estimated for 18 Oct 2018 07:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 Oct 2018 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	18 Oct 2018 07:30	Port Mansfield	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2018 15:30	Yarborough	United States	0.2
	17 Oct 2018 02:30	Tecomate	Mexico	0.2
	17 Oct 2018 02:30	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.2
	18 Oct 2018 04:45	Holly Beach	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2018 04:45	Laguna Vista	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2018 04:45	Laguna Heights	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2018 04:45	Port Isabel	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2018 04:45	South Padre Island	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2018 15:45	El Martillo	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2018 04:45	Kopernik Shores	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2018 04:45	Boca Chica	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2018 03:45	Estes	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2018 03:45	Mustang Beach	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2018 03:45	Port Aransas	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2018 03:45	Rockport	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2018 03:45	Shell Ridge	United States	0.1
	17 Oct 2018 21:15	Huajapan	Mexico	0.1
	17 Oct 2018 21:15	El Roble	Mexico	0.1
	17 Oct 2018 21:15	Cachimba	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2018 03:45	Copano Village	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2018 03:45	Fulton	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2018 15:45	Flour Bluff	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2018 03:30	Mulege	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2018 03:30	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.1
	17 Oct 2018 21:15	Arista	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2018 03:00	Caruthers Cove Colonia	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2018 03:00	Port Ingleside	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2018 06:00	Port O'Connor	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2018 03:30	Indian Trails Lane Colonia	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2018 03:30	Country Estates Colonia	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2018 03:30	Aransas Pass	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2018 04:00	Indianola	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2018 04:15	Fraccionamiento Nuevo Leon	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2018 06:15	Matagorda	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2018 08:45	Anderson Ways	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2018 08:45	Virginia Point	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2018 08:45	Galveston	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2018 08:45	Port Bolivar	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2018 08:45	Fort Travis	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2018 08:45	Flake	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2018 08:45	Elmgrove	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2018 08:45	Crystal Beach	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2018 08:45	Patton	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2018 06:15	Chinquapin	United States	0.1
	17 Oct 2018 20:30	Conejo	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.