Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for NESTOR-19 in United States from 17 Oct 2019 15:00 UTC to 19 Oct 2019 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NESTOR-19

in United States

18 Oct 2019 06 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NESTOR-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	United States
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	65 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (18 Oct 11:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (United States)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	65 km/h	0.2 m	191 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	90 km/h	0.8 m	357 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

90 km/h

Up to 50 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Oct 2019 06:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	United States	46,659

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	17 Oct 2019 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	17 Oct 2019 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	18 Oct 2019 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	18 Oct 2019 06:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Oct 2019 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	United States	15,606
50-100 mm	United States, Mexico	7,498,022	+
	United States	5,111,653
	Mexico	2,386,369

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	17 Oct 2019 12:00	220	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	17 Oct 2019 18:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	18 Oct 2019 00:00	166	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	18 Oct 2019 06:00	300	20 thousand			-	-	-	-	United States, Mexico

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Gilchrist, United States. This height is estimated for 18 Oct 2019 11:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 Oct 2019 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	18 Oct 2019 11:15	Gilchrist	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 11:15	High Island	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 11:00	Caplen	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:00	Galveston	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:00	Port Bolivar	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:00	Fort Travis	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:00	Flake	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:00	Elmgrove	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:00	Crystal Beach	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:00	Patton	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:00	Bolivar Peninsula	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:30	Johnson's Bayou	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:30	Constance Beach	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:30	Peveto Beach	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 09:45	Hitchcock	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 09:45	Jamaica Beach	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 09:45	Texas City Junction	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 09:45	Bayou Vista	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 09:45	Anderson Ways	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 09:45	Virginia Point	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:15	Bay Harbor	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:15	Sea Isle	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:00	Red Fish Cove	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:00	Hoskins	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:00	Port Morris	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:15	Surfside	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:15	Mims	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:15	Surfside Beach	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:15	Freeport	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:15	Quintana	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 09:00	Guerrero	Mexico	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 09:00	Real de Salinas	Mexico	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:30	Gulf Park	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:30	Hoskins	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:30	Bryan Beach	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 10:30	Valasco Heights	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 11:30	Chinquapin	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 12:00	Celestum	Mexico	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 11:15	Matagorda	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 11:15	Port O'Connor	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 08:00	Raya	Honduras	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 08:00	Clubki	Honduras	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 08:00	Irlaya	Honduras	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 11:15	Port Mansfield	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 08:45	Buena Vista	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 08:30	Holly Beach	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 08:30	Laguna Vista	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 08:30	Laguna Heights	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 08:30	Port Isabel	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 08:30	Kopernik Shores	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 08:30	South Padre Island	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 08:30	Boca Chica	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 09:45	Lamar	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 10:00	El Martillo	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 10:00	Yarborough	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 09:45	Mustang Beach	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 09:45	Port Aransas	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 09:45	Rockport	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 09:45	Shell Ridge	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 09:45	Copano Village	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 09:45	Fulton	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 09:45	Peary Place	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 09:45	Flour Bluff	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 08:00	Porfirio Diaz	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 08:00	Chenkan	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 09:15	Port Ingleside	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 10:00	Caruthers Cove Colonia	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 10:00	Ingleside	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 10:00	Kenney Lane West Colonia	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 10:00	Indian Trails Lane Colonia	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 10:00	Country Estates Colonia	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 09:45	Aransas Pass	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 09:45	Estes	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 07:00	Mound Grove	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 07:00	Ormond-by-the-Sea	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 07:00	Daytona Beach	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 07:00	Holly Hill	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 07:00	Ellinor Village	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 07:00	Ortona	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 07:00	Seabreeze	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 07:00	South Daytona	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 07:00	Daytona Beach Shores	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 07:00	Allandale	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 07:00	Halifax Estates	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 07:00	Wilbur-by-the-Sea	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 09:00	Fraccionamiento Nuevo Leon	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 12:00	Sisal	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 10:00	Los Ebanos	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 10:00	El Mezquital	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 10:00	San Jose de los Leones	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 09:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 12:00	West Point	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 12:00	Breton	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 10:45	Chaparral	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 10:15	El Porvenir	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 07:45	Anton Lizardo	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 07:45	Salinas	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 07:45	Buen Pais	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.