Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for KARINA-20 Off-shore from 13 Sep 2020 03:00 UTC to 17 Sep 2020 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-20

Off-shore

14 Sep 2020 06 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KARINA-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	76 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (14 Sep 08:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	76 km/h	0.4 m	209 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	90 km/h	0.5 m	339 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

90 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 14 Sep 2020 06:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	13 Sep 2020 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	13 Sep 2020 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	13 Sep 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	13 Sep 2020 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	14 Sep 2020 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	14 Sep 2020 06:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Sep 2020 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Mexico	208,742

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	13 Sep 2020 00:00	136	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	13 Sep 2020 06:00	62	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	13 Sep 2020 12:00	77	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	13 Sep 2020 18:00	105	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	14 Sep 2020 00:00	70	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	14 Sep 2020 06:00	373	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Puerto Venustiano Carranza, Mexico. This height is estimated for 14 Sep 2020 08:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 14 Sep 2020 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	14 Sep 2020 08:45	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.4
	14 Sep 2020 08:30	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.3
	14 Sep 2020 10:30	Molino	Mexico	0.3
	14 Sep 2020 10:30	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.3
	14 Sep 2020 08:15	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 06:45	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 06:45	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 12:00	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 06:45	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 07:45	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 07:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 06:45	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 07:30	Datilito	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 07:30	La Paz	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 07:30	Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 10:30	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 12:00	San Rafael	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 08:15	Cedros	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 12:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 10:15	Aguaje	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 08:15	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 07:00	Ojo de Liebre	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 09:45	Tecomate	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 09:45	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 06:30	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 12:00	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 07:45	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 07:45	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 07:15	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.2
	14 Sep 2020 10:30	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 07:00	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 06:00	San Juanico	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 06:00	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 06:00	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 06:00	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 06:00	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 12:00	El Barril	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 12:00	Tastiota	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 11:00	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 07:00	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 06:30	La Florida	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 08:45	Los Burros	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 06:00	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 07:30	Altata	Mexico	0.1
	14 Sep 2020 07:30	El Castillo	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.