Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for KARINA-20 Off-shore from 13 Sep 2020 03:00 UTC to 17 Sep 2020 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-20

Off-shore

15 Sep 2020 00 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KARINA-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	86 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (17 Sep 10:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	86 km/h	0.5 m	176 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	126 km/h	0.5 m	586 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

126 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 15 Sep 2020 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	13 Sep 2020 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	13 Sep 2020 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	13 Sep 2020 12:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	13 Sep 2020 18:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	14 Sep 2020 00:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	14 Sep 2020 06:00	126	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	14 Sep 2020 12:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	14 Sep 2020 18:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	15 Sep 2020 00:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 15 Sep 2020 00:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000
1	13 Sep 2020 00:00	328	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	13 Sep 2020 06:00	343	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	13 Sep 2020 12:00	214	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	13 Sep 2020 18:00	270	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	14 Sep 2020 00:00	300	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	14 Sep 2020 06:00	331	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	14 Sep 2020 12:00	376	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	14 Sep 2020 18:00	263	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	15 Sep 2020 00:00	235	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Molino, Mexico. This height is estimated for 17 Sep 2020 10:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Sep 2020 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	17 Sep 2020 10:15	Molino	Mexico	0.5
	17 Sep 2020 10:15	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.5
	15 Sep 2020 05:30	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.5
	17 Sep 2020 10:15	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.4
	15 Sep 2020 05:30	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.4
	15 Sep 2020 06:15	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.4
	17 Sep 2020 10:15	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.4
	17 Sep 2020 10:15	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.4
	17 Sep 2020 10:30	Tecomate	Mexico	0.3
	17 Sep 2020 10:30	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.3
	15 Sep 2020 11:30	Cuantla	Mexico	0.3
	15 Sep 2020 11:30	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.3
	15 Sep 2020 13:30	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.3
	15 Sep 2020 06:15	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 06:15	Cedros	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 12:30	La Florida	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 00:30	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 11:15	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 00:30	San Rafael	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 04:30	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 04:15	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 04:15	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 04:15	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 02:30	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 02:30	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 02:30	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 00:30	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 12:45	San Jose	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 12:45	Atanacio	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 12:45	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 04:45	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 04:45	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 04:45	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 11:00	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 01:30	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 07:15	Datilito	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 07:15	La Paz	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 07:15	Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 13:15	Los Burros	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 00:45	Empalme	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 00:45	Guasimas	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 13:30	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 13:30	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 12:45	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 12:45	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 00:30	Guaymas	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 07:45	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 12:00	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 07:30	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 01:30	Borabampo	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 01:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 11:00	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 11:00	La Boca	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 00:30	Mulege	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 20:00	El Barril	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 01:00	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 12:30	Tastiota	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 06:30	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 01:30	Loreto	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 01:30	Ligui	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 00:30	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 11:30	La Puerta	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 00:45	Liliba	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 01:00	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 12:30	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 12:45	Caimanero	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 12:45	Jarilla	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 11:00	La Palmita	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 01:00	La Ventana	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 01:00	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 00:45	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 00:45	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 17:45	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 08:00	San Cosme	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 19:00	Altata	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 19:00	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 00:45	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 06:30	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 19:30	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 12:45	Marmol	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 12:45	Florida	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 12:45	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 04:45	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 04:45	Queretaro	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 03:30	Aguaje	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 03:30	Ojo de Liebre	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 13:00	Tripui	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 18:15	Santa Catarina	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 12:15	Barron	Mexico	0.2
	16 Sep 2020 01:00	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 18:15	Dimas	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 02:00	Perihuete	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 19:30	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 19:30	San Francisco	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 19:45	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 19:45	La Ribera	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 19:45	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 19:45	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 19:45	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.2
	17 Sep 2020 07:15	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 18:45	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 18:45	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2020 01:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 00:45	Quinones	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2020 12:00	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2020 00:00	El Tomale	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2020 00:00	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2020 00:00	Cunano	Mexico	0.1
	17 Sep 2020 01:15	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 01:15	Bahia Asuncion	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2020 13:00	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 17:00	El Rosario	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2020 12:00	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2020 12:45	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2020 12:45	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2020 12:15	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 19:00	Aquiles Serdan	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 19:00	Ipala	Mexico	0.1
	16 Sep 2020 12:30	Todos Santos	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 18:45	Corrales	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2020 18:45	Pizota	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.