Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for DANILO-21 in , Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 01 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC to 09 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DANILO-21

in , Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DANILO-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	144 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (09 Jan 04:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	144 km/h	0.3 m	599 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	144 km/h	0.3 m	599 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 08 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	01 Jan 2021 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	02 Jan 2021 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	02 Jan 2021 06:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	02 Jan 2021 12:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	02 Jan 2021 18:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	03 Jan 2021 00:00	133	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	03 Jan 2021 06:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	03 Jan 2021 12:00	130	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	03 Jan 2021 18:00	144	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	04 Jan 2021 00:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	04 Jan 2021 06:00	133	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	04 Jan 2021 12:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	04 Jan 2021 18:00	126	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	05 Jan 2021 00:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	05 Jan 2021 06:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	05 Jan 2021 12:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	05 Jan 2021 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	06 Jan 2021 00:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	06 Jan 2021 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	06 Jan 2021 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	06 Jan 2021 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	07 Jan 2021 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	07 Jan 2021 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	07 Jan 2021 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	07 Jan 2021 18:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	08 Jan 2021 00:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	08 Jan 2021 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	08 Jan 2021 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	08 Jan 2021 18:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

599 mm

Up to Few people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Seychelles, Mauritius	673	+
	Seychelles	451
	Mauritius	222
50-100 mm	Mauritius, Madagascar	50,609	+
	Mauritius	43,565
	Madagascar	7,044

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	01 Jan 2021 18:00	21	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	02 Jan 2021 00:00	22	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	02 Jan 2021 06:00	28	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	02 Jan 2021 12:00	27	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	02 Jan 2021 18:00	29	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	03 Jan 2021 00:00	37	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	03 Jan 2021 06:00	30	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	03 Jan 2021 12:00	36	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	03 Jan 2021 18:00	40	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	04 Jan 2021 00:00	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	04 Jan 2021 06:00	37	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	04 Jan 2021 12:00	30	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	04 Jan 2021 18:00	35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	05 Jan 2021 00:00	34	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	05 Jan 2021 06:00	29	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	05 Jan 2021 12:00	33	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	05 Jan 2021 18:00	26	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	06 Jan 2021 00:00	26	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	06 Jan 2021 06:00	18	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	06 Jan 2021 12:00	21	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	06 Jan 2021 18:00	17	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	07 Jan 2021 00:00	20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	07 Jan 2021 06:00	20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	07 Jan 2021 12:00	22	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	07 Jan 2021 18:00	22	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	08 Jan 2021 00:00	24	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	08 Jan 2021 06:00	16	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	08 Jan 2021 12:00	17	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	08 Jan 2021 18:00	211	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Antalavia, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 09 Jan 2021 04:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	09 Jan 2021 04:15	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Jan 2021 04:15	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Jan 2021 04:15	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Jan 2021 04:15	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Jan 2021 03:15	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Jan 2021 03:15	Anaovandrano	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Jan 2021 03:15	Anjanozana	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Jan 2021 03:15	Ampanavoana	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Jan 2021 03:45	Antsirabato	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Jan 2021 03:45	Anjahamarina	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Jan 2021 03:45	Ambalabe	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Jan 2021 03:45	Ambohitralanana	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Jan 2021 15:30	Maniroka	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Jan 2021 15:30	Antanjokatafana	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Jan 2021 15:30	Ratsianarana	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Jan 2021 15:30	Ambodivato	Madagascar	0.3
	10 Jan 2021 14:15	Ampaha	Madagascar	0.3
	10 Jan 2021 14:15	Andrapengy	Madagascar	0.3
	10 Jan 2021 14:15	Ambinany	Madagascar	0.3
	10 Jan 2021 14:15	Antalaha	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Jan 2021 16:00	Le Port	Reunion	0.3
	06 Jan 2021 16:00	La Possession	Reunion	0.3
	06 Jan 2021 16:00	Saint-Denis	Reunion	0.3
	06 Jan 2021 16:00	Saint-Marie	Reunion	0.3
	06 Jan 2021 16:00	Sainte-Suzanne	Reunion	0.3
	10 Jan 2021 14:45	Antsahotompy	Madagascar	0.3
	10 Jan 2021 14:45	Amboanio	Madagascar	0.3
	10 Jan 2021 14:45	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.3
	10 Jan 2021 14:45	Ambanjsondriry	Madagascar	0.3
	10 Jan 2021 14:45	Masondrono	Madagascar	0.3
	10 Jan 2021 14:30	Amborimalana	Madagascar	0.3
	10 Jan 2021 14:30	Ambodipont-Sahana	Madagascar	0.3
	10 Jan 2021 14:30	Farahalana	Madagascar	0.3
	10 Jan 2021 14:30	Antohamaro	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Jan 2021 15:45	Trou aux Biches	Mauritius	0.3
	09 Jan 2021 15:45	Saint-Antoine	Mauritius	0.3
	09 Jan 2021 15:45	Riviere du Rempart	Mauritius	0.3
	10 Jan 2021 14:30	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.3
	10 Jan 2021 14:30	Ampana Kanana	Madagascar	0.3
	10 Jan 2021 14:30	Antongompatatra	Madagascar	0.3
	10 Jan 2021 14:30	Bemanevika	Madagascar	0.3
	10 Jan 2021 14:30	Sambava	Madagascar	0.3
	11 Jan 2021 02:45	Saint-Andre	Reunion	0.2
	11 Jan 2021 02:45	Bras-Panon	Reunion	0.2
	11 Jan 2021 02:15	Etang Sale	Reunion	0.2
	11 Jan 2021 02:15	Saint-Louis	Reunion	0.2
	11 Jan 2021 02:15	Saint-Pierre	Reunion	0.2
	11 Jan 2021 02:15	Petite Ile	Reunion	0.2
	11 Jan 2021 02:15	Saint-Joseph	Reunion	0.2
	11 Jan 2021 02:15	Les Avirons	Reunion	0.2
	11 Jan 2021 02:15	Saint-Leu	Reunion	0.2
	11 Jan 2021 02:15	Trois Bassins	Reunion	0.2
	11 Jan 2021 02:15	Saint-Philippe	Reunion	0.2
	11 Jan 2021 02:15	Saint-Paul	Reunion	0.2
	11 Jan 2021 02:00	Sainte-Rose	Reunion	0.2
	11 Jan 2021 02:00	Cascades	Reunion	0.2
	11 Jan 2021 02:00	Saint-Benoit	Reunion	0.2
	09 Jan 2021 15:30	Port Louis	Mauritius	0.2
	11 Jan 2021 02:15	Choisy	Mauritius	0.2
	11 Jan 2021 02:15	Black River	Mauritius	0.2
	11 Jan 2021 02:15	Chemin Grenier	Mauritius	0.2
	11 Jan 2021 02:15	Souillac	Mauritius	0.2
	11 Jan 2021 02:15	Riche-en-Eau	Mauritius	0.2
	11 Jan 2021 02:15	Maheboug	Mauritius	0.2
	11 Jan 2021 02:15	Grande Reviere Sud Est	Mauritius	0.2
	10 Jan 2021 08:15	Point Marianne	British Indian Ocean Territory	0.2
	10 Jan 2021 08:15	East Point Plantation	British Indian Ocean Territory	0.2
	09 Jan 2021 15:00	La Ferme	Mauritius	0.2
	09 Jan 2021 15:00	Port Mathurin	Mauritius	0.2

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.