Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for DANILO-21 in , Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 01 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC to 09 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DANILO-21

in , Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DANILO-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	137 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (09 Jan 16:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	137 km/h	0.4 m	628 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	137 km/h	0.4 m	628 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 08 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	01 Jan 2021 18:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	02 Jan 2021 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	02 Jan 2021 06:00	137	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	02 Jan 2021 12:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	02 Jan 2021 18:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	03 Jan 2021 00:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	03 Jan 2021 06:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	03 Jan 2021 12:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	03 Jan 2021 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	04 Jan 2021 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	04 Jan 2021 06:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	04 Jan 2021 12:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	04 Jan 2021 18:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	05 Jan 2021 00:00	130	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	05 Jan 2021 06:00	130	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	05 Jan 2021 12:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	05 Jan 2021 18:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	06 Jan 2021 00:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	06 Jan 2021 06:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	06 Jan 2021 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	06 Jan 2021 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	07 Jan 2021 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	07 Jan 2021 06:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	07 Jan 2021 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	07 Jan 2021 18:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	08 Jan 2021 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	08 Jan 2021 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	08 Jan 2021 12:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	08 Jan 2021 18:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

628 mm

Up to 2 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Reunion	1,927
50-100 mm	Reunion	2,337

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	01 Jan 2021 18:00	23	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	02 Jan 2021 00:00	22	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	02 Jan 2021 06:00	38	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	02 Jan 2021 12:00	23	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	02 Jan 2021 18:00	27	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	03 Jan 2021 00:00	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	03 Jan 2021 06:00	30	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	03 Jan 2021 12:00	27	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	03 Jan 2021 18:00	26	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	04 Jan 2021 00:00	25	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	04 Jan 2021 06:00	22	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	04 Jan 2021 12:00	32	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	04 Jan 2021 18:00	34	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	05 Jan 2021 00:00	36	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	05 Jan 2021 06:00	36	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	05 Jan 2021 12:00	33	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	05 Jan 2021 18:00	28	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	06 Jan 2021 00:00	23	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	06 Jan 2021 06:00	23	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	06 Jan 2021 12:00	17	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	06 Jan 2021 18:00	17	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	07 Jan 2021 00:00	17	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	07 Jan 2021 06:00	17	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	07 Jan 2021 12:00	20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	07 Jan 2021 18:00	24	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	08 Jan 2021 00:00	22	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	08 Jan 2021 06:00	18	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	08 Jan 2021 12:00	24	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	08 Jan 2021 18:00	530	2 thousand			-	-	-	-	Reunion

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Maniroka, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 09 Jan 2021 16:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	09 Jan 2021 16:30	Maniroka	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Jan 2021 16:30	Antanjokatafana	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Jan 2021 16:30	Ratsianarana	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Jan 2021 16:30	Ambodivato	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Jan 2021 15:30	Ambohitralanana	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Jan 2021 03:45	Antsirabato	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Jan 2021 03:45	Anjahamarina	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Jan 2021 03:45	Ambalabe	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Jan 2021 04:15	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Jan 2021 04:15	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Jan 2021 04:15	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Jan 2021 04:15	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Jan 2021 04:15	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Jan 2021 03:45	Ampaha	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Jan 2021 03:45	Andrapengy	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Jan 2021 03:45	Ambinany	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Jan 2021 03:45	Antalaha	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Jan 2021 14:15	Anaovandrano	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Jan 2021 15:45	Ambodipont-Sahana	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Jan 2021 15:30	Ampanavoana	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Jan 2021 15:00	Anjanozana	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Jan 2021 17:15	Le Port	Reunion	0.3
	08 Jan 2021 17:15	La Possession	Reunion	0.3
	08 Jan 2021 17:15	Saint-Denis	Reunion	0.3
	08 Jan 2021 17:15	Saint-Marie	Reunion	0.3
	08 Jan 2021 17:15	Sainte-Suzanne	Reunion	0.3
	08 Jan 2021 15:30	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Jan 2021 15:30	Ambanjsondriry	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Jan 2021 15:30	Masondrono	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Jan 2021 15:30	Ampana Kanana	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Jan 2021 16:45	Antsahotompy	Madagascar	0.3
	08 Jan 2021 16:45	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Jan 2021 04:00	Farahalana	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Jan 2021 04:00	Amborimalana	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Jan 2021 15:15	Amboanio	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Jan 2021 15:00	Antongompatatra	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Jan 2021 15:00	Bemanevika	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Jan 2021 15:00	Sambava	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Jan 2021 15:00	Antohamaro	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Jan 2021 15:00	Saint-Paul	Reunion	0.2
	09 Jan 2021 15:00	Saint-Leu	Reunion	0.2
	09 Jan 2021 15:00	Trois Bassins	Reunion	0.2
	06 Jan 2021 04:00	Riche-en-Eau	Mauritius	0.2
	06 Jan 2021 04:00	Maheboug	Mauritius	0.2
	06 Jan 2021 04:00	Grande Reviere Sud Est	Mauritius	0.2
	09 Jan 2021 15:00	Saint-Andre	Reunion	0.2
	09 Jan 2021 15:00	Bras-Panon	Reunion	0.2
	09 Jan 2021 15:00	Saint-Benoit	Reunion	0.2
	09 Jan 2021 15:00	Sainte-Rose	Reunion	0.2
	09 Jan 2021 15:00	Cascades	Reunion	0.2
	11 Jan 2021 02:00	Trou aux Biches	Mauritius	0.2
	11 Jan 2021 02:00	Saint-Antoine	Mauritius	0.2
	11 Jan 2021 02:00	Riviere du Rempart	Mauritius	0.2
	09 Jan 2021 15:00	Les Avirons	Reunion	0.2
	06 Jan 2021 03:15	La Ferme	Mauritius	0.2
	06 Jan 2021 03:15	Port Mathurin	Mauritius	0.2
	09 Jan 2021 14:45	Saint-Pierre	Reunion	0.2
	09 Jan 2021 14:45	Etang Sale	Reunion	0.2
	09 Jan 2021 14:45	Saint-Louis	Reunion	0.2
	11 Jan 2021 15:45	Saint-Philippe	Reunion	0.2
	09 Jan 2021 15:00	Petite Ile	Reunion	0.2
	09 Jan 2021 15:00	Saint-Joseph	Reunion	0.2
	09 Jan 2021 15:30	Port Louis	Mauritius	0.2
	09 Jan 2021 15:30	Choisy	Mauritius	0.2
	09 Jan 2021 15:30	Black River	Mauritius	0.2
	09 Jan 2021 15:30	Chemin Grenier	Mauritius	0.2
	11 Jan 2021 01:45	Souillac	Mauritius	0.2
	10 Jan 2021 08:15	Point Marianne	British Indian Ocean Territory	0.2
	10 Jan 2021 08:15	East Point Plantation	British Indian Ocean Territory	0.2

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.