Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for GUILLERMO-21 Off-shore from 17 Jul 2021 15:00 UTC to 20 Jul 2021 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for GUILLERMO-21

Off-shore

21 Jul 2021 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GUILLERMO-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	50 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (21 Jul 00:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	50 km/h	0.3 m	78 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	176 km/h	0.4 m	353 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

176 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 21 Jul 2021 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	17 Jul 2021 12:00	166	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	17 Jul 2021 18:00	155	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	18 Jul 2021 00:00	166	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	18 Jul 2021 06:00	176	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	18 Jul 2021 12:00	176	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	18 Jul 2021 18:00	151	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	19 Jul 2021 00:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	19 Jul 2021 06:00	144	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	19 Jul 2021 12:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	19 Jul 2021 18:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	20 Jul 2021 00:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	20 Jul 2021 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	20 Jul 2021 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	20 Jul 2021 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	21 Jul 2021 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Jul 2021 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Mexico	478,009

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	17 Jul 2021 12:00	145	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	17 Jul 2021 18:00	146	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	18 Jul 2021 00:00	147	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
4	18 Jul 2021 06:00	126	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	18 Jul 2021 12:00	103	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	18 Jul 2021 18:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	19 Jul 2021 00:00	105	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	19 Jul 2021 06:00	155	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	19 Jul 2021 12:00	88	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	19 Jul 2021 18:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	20 Jul 2021 00:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	20 Jul 2021 06:00	133	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	20 Jul 2021 12:00	179	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	20 Jul 2021 18:00	154	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	21 Jul 2021 00:00	209	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Novillero, Mexico. This height is estimated for 21 Jul 2021 00:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 Jul 2021 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	21 Jul 2021 00:15	Novillero	Mexico	0.3
	21 Jul 2021 00:15	Cuantla	Mexico	0.3
	21 Jul 2021 00:30	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:45	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:45	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 02:00	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 02:00	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:30	La Palmita	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:30	Caimanero	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:30	Jarilla	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:15	La Puerta	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:30	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:45	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:45	Quinones	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 02:45	San Jose	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 02:45	Atanacio	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 02:45	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Queretaro	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 05:15	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 05:15	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 05:15	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:15	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Las Trojitas	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Calla de Campos	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Chula	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 01:30	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 01:30	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 01:30	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 01:30	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 01:30	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 02:45	Borabampo	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:15	El Tomale	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:15	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:15	Cunano	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:15	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	San Francisco	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Monteon	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 01:15	La Florida	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 01:15	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:15	Chola	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 02:45	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 02:30	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:15	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:15	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Florida	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Barron	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 02:30	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 02:30	Mulege	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:45	Dimas	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 01:45	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 01:45	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 01:45	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 02:45	Liliba	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:15	El Ciruelo	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:15	Cuyutlan	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:15	El Real	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 03:00	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Estrecho	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Santiago	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Melchor Ocampo	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:15	Chamela	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:15	Cuitzmala	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 02:15	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:15	Las Pinas	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:15	Playa Azul	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Chupadero	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Apisa	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 01:00	Corrales	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 01:00	Pizota	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 02:45	Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 02:15	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 02:15	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 01:00	Perihuete	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 01:30	La Lima	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 02:45	Loreto	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 02:45	Ligui	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 02:15	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Joluta	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:15	Marmol	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 01:30	La Boca	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:30	Bahia Asuncion	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 01:15	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 02:30	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Aquiles Serdan	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Ipala	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	San Telmo	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Bucerias	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 02:45	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 02:45	Datilito	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 02:45	La Paz	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:45	Todos Santos	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:30	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Cayaca	Mexico	0.2
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Barra de Navidad	Mexico	0.1
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Maruata	Mexico	0.1
	21 Jul 2021 02:30	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.1
	21 Jul 2021 00:15	La Manzanilla	Mexico	0.1
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Altata	Mexico	0.1
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Puerto Vallarta	Mexico	0.1
	21 Jul 2021 02:45	Tripui	Mexico	0.1
	21 Jul 2021 02:30	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.1
	21 Jul 2021 02:30	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.1
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	La Ribera	Mexico	0.1
	21 Jul 2021 00:15	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.1
	21 Jul 2021 00:15	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	21 Jul 2021 01:00	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.1
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.1
	21 Jul 2021 01:45	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.1
	21 Jul 2021 02:30	San Cosme	Mexico	0.1
	21 Jul 2021 00:15	La Tinaja	Mexico	0.1
	21 Jul 2021 00:15	Pozo de Cota	Mexico	0.1
	21 Jul 2021 00:15	San Lucas	Mexico	0.1
	21 Jul 2021 01:45	Los Burros	Mexico	0.1
	21 Jul 2021 00:15	El Tule	Mexico	0.1
	21 Jul 2021 00:30	El Pescadero	Mexico	0.1
	21 Jul 2021 01:30	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	21 Jul 2021 01:30	La Ventana	Mexico	0.1
	21 Jul 2021 02:30	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.1
	21 Jul 2021 00:00	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.