Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NICHOLAS-21
in United States

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NICHOLAS-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 40 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (15 Sep 06:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (United States)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 40 km/h 0.6 m 55 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 94 km/h 1.2 m 322 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

94 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States00
+

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 12 Sep 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 12 Sep 2021 18:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 13 Sep 2021 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 13 Sep 2021 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 13 Sep 2021 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 13 Sep 2021 18:00 83 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 7 14 Sep 2021 00:00 94 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 8 14 Sep 2021 06:00 86 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 9 14 Sep 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 14 Sep 2021 18:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 15 Sep 2021 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 15 Sep 2021 06:00 65 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico36,388
+
United States24,906 
Mexico11,482 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras15,125,943
+
United States3,223,353 
Mexico8,610,659 
Guatemala3,141,775 
Honduras150,155 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 12 Sep 2021 12:00 150 230 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 2 12 Sep 2021 18:00 110 20 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 3 13 Sep 2021 00:00 132 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 4 13 Sep 2021 06:00 159 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 5 13 Sep 2021 12:00 137 710 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 6 13 Sep 2021 18:00 124 -
- - - - - United States
Blue 7 14 Sep 2021 00:00 151 130 thousand
- - - - United States
Blue 8 14 Sep 2021 06:00 154 180 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico
Blue 9 14 Sep 2021 12:00 120 30 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico
Blue 10 14 Sep 2021 18:00 50 -
- - - - - United States
Blue 11 15 Sep 2021 00:00 91 -
- - - - - United States
Blue 12 15 Sep 2021 06:00 166 40 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Cypremort Point, United States. This height is estimated for 15 Sep 2021 06:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
15 Sep 2021 06:15 Cypremort Point United States  0.6
15 Sep 2021 06:15 Weeks United States  0.6
15 Sep 2021 09:30 Louisa United States  0.6
15 Sep 2021 09:30 Ivanhoe United States  0.6
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Intracoastal City United States  0.6
15 Sep 2021 09:45 Florence United States  0.5
15 Sep 2021 09:45 Cote Blanche Landing United States  0.5
15 Sep 2021 09:45 Freetown United States  0.5
15 Sep 2021 09:45 Gordy United States  0.5
15 Sep 2021 09:45 South Bend United States  0.5
15 Sep 2021 09:45 Burns United States  0.5
15 Sep 2021 09:00 Ellerstie United States  0.5
15 Sep 2021 08:15 Ansley United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:15 Bayside Park United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:15 Lakeshore United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:15 Klin United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:15 Kiln United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:15 Shoreline Park United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:15 Silver Creek Acres United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:15 Waveland United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:15 Fenton United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:15 Diamondhead United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:15 Bay St Louis United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:15 Henderson Point United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:15 De Lisle United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:15 Pass Christian United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:15 Cuevas United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:15 White Harbor United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Howze Beach United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Greens Ditch United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Fort Pike United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Lake Catherine United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:45 White Kitchen United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Riolets United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Pearlington United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:45 North Side United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Jackson Landing United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:45 English Lookout United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 11:45 Martello Castle United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 11:45 Chef Menteur United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 11:45 Shell Beach United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 11:45 Alluvial City United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 11:45 Yscloskey United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 11:45 Hopedale United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 11:45 Saint Malo United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Lakeside United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Taylor Lake United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 El Lago United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Clear Lake Shores United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Kemah United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Shoreacres United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Bayside Terrace United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Todville United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Bayview United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Red Bluff United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Seabrook United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Bacliff United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Nadeau United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Texas City Junction United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Bayou Vista United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 San Leon United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Texas City United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Port Bolivar United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Smith Point United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Fort Travis United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Happy Jack United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Potash United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Cedar Point United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Beach City United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Oak Island United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Anahuac United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Hesperides United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Nairn United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Empire United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 08:15 Fivemile Oaks United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 09:00 Long Beach United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 09:00 Gulfport United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Morgan Point United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Baytown United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Pelly United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Elmgrove United States  0.4
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Webster United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Clear Lake City United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Nassau Bay United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Kilkare United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 06:00 La Porte United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Morgan's Point United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Mississippi City United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Handsboro United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Flake United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 07:30 Cheniere Au Tigre United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Edgewater Park United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Beauvoir United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Sunrise United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Buras United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Ostrica United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Neptune United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Fort Jackson United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Boothville United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 06:45 Cocodrie United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Crystal Beach United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Patton United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Bolivar Peninsula United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 06:15 Oak Grove United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 06:15 Grand Chenier United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 06:00 West Point United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 06:30 Cameron United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 08:00 Loraine United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 08:00 Wool Market United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 08:00 Cedar Lake United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 08:00 Biloxi United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 08:00 D'Iberville United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 08:00 Saint Martin United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Duvic United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 09:00 Leeville United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Breton United States  0.3
15 Sep 2021 07:45 Ocean Springs United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 07:45 Gulf Hills United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 06:30 Holly Beach United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 07:30 Gulf Park Estates United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 06:45 Constance Beach United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 06:45 Peveto Beach United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 07:30 Hilda United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Johnson's Bayou United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 07:15 Bassa Bassa United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 08:15 Port Fourchon United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 16:00 West Pointe A la Hache United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 16:00 Grand Ecaille United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 10:15 Bayleys Corner United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 10:15 Navco United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 10:15 Bellefontaine United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 10:15 Mertz United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 10:15 Chickasaw United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 10:15 Cox United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 10:15 Mobile United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 10:15 Magazine United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 10:15 Battles Wharf United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 10:15 Blakeley United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 10:15 Bridgehead United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 10:15 Jackson Oak United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 10:15 Park City United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 10:15 Fairhope United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 10:15 Point Clear United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 10:15 Houstonville United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 10:15 Montrose United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 10:15 Buzbee Landing United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 10:15 Seacliff United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 10:15 Daphne United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 10:15 Spanish Fort United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 06:45 Gautier United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 06:45 Pascagoula United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 06:45 Moss Point United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 07:00 Chaparral Mexico  0.2
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Delchamps United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Heron Bay United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Alabama Port United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Mon Louis United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Darling Landing United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Bryant Landing United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Foots Landing United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 08:45 Barnwell United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 09:45 Turkey Branch United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 09:45 Yupon United States  0.2
18 Sep 2021 05:15 Sabine United States  0.2
18 Sep 2021 05:15 Sabine Pass United States  0.2
15 Sep 2021 06:00 La Gloria Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2021 06:00 High Island United States  0.1
17 Sep 2021 21:45 Chelem Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2021 21:45 Progreso Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2021 21:30 Patlaya Honduras  0.1
17 Sep 2021 21:30 Uhi Honduras  0.1
18 Sep 2021 06:00 Caplen United States  0.1
18 Sep 2021 06:00 Gilchrist United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 16:45 Plum Orchard United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 16:45 Mandalay United States  0.1
17 Sep 2021 22:00 Campeche Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2021 22:00 Balantanche Mexico  0.1
15 Sep 2021 06:45 Bayou La Batre United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 06:45 Coden United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 06:45 Nelson United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 22:15 Corozo Guatemala  0.1
15 Sep 2021 22:15 Cabeza de Vaca Guatemala  0.1
15 Sep 2021 22:15 Baranca Belize  0.1
15 Sep 2021 22:15 San Juan Guatemala  0.1
15 Sep 2021 22:15 Cocoli Guatemala  0.1
15 Sep 2021 22:15 Buena Vista Guatemala  0.1
15 Sep 2021 22:15 Livingston Guatemala  0.1
15 Sep 2021 22:45 Hoquel Mexico  0.1
15 Sep 2021 22:45 Champoton Mexico  0.1
15 Sep 2021 22:45 Haltunchen Mexico  0.1
15 Sep 2021 07:00 Dauphin Island United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 07:00 Fort Gaines United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 07:00 Fort Morgan United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 07:00 Gulf Highlands United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 16:30 Saint Marks United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 16:30 Port Leon United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 16:30 Newport United States  0.1
17 Sep 2021 22:15 Porfirio Diaz Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2021 22:15 Chenkan Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2021 03:45 Ciudad del Carmen Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2021 03:45 Boca Nueva Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2021 23:15 Valton Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2021 23:15 Guerrero Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2021 23:15 Real de Salinas Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2021 10:45 Ferguson Bank Belize  0.1
17 Sep 2021 10:45 Belize City Belize  0.1
15 Sep 2021 22:00 Macho Creek Guatemala  0.1
15 Sep 2021 22:00 Punta Manabique Guatemala  0.1
15 Sep 2021 22:00 Puerto Barrios Guatemala  0.1
17 Sep 2021 03:45 Victoria Mexico  0.1
15 Sep 2021 21:45 Puerto Santo Tomas de Castilla Guatemala  0.1
15 Sep 2021 21:45 Cambalache Guatemala  0.1
15 Sep 2021 21:45 Piedra Parada Guatemala  0.1
15 Sep 2021 21:45 Corozo Guatemala  0.1
15 Sep 2021 21:45 La Graciosa Guatemala  0.1
15 Sep 2021 21:45 Machacal Guatemala  0.1
15 Sep 2021 22:00 Cattle Landing Belize  0.1
18 Sep 2021 06:00 Galveston United States  0.1
17 Sep 2021 23:15 Neyac Mexico  0.1
15 Sep 2021 16:15 Sun N Sand Beaches United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 16:15 Skipper United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 16:15 Live Oak Island United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 16:15 Hyde Park United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 16:15 Wakulla Beach United States  0.1
18 Sep 2021 05:15 Balchacah Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2021 06:00 Bay Harbor United States  0.1
18 Sep 2021 06:00 Sea Isle United States  0.1
18 Sep 2021 06:00 Hitchcock United States  0.1
18 Sep 2021 06:00 Jamaica Beach United States  0.1
18 Sep 2021 06:00 Anderson Ways United States  0.1
18 Sep 2021 06:00 Virginia Point United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 16:30 Surf United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 16:30 Panacea United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 16:30 Medart United States  0.1
17 Sep 2021 21:15 Sisal Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2021 10:30 Gales Point Belize  0.1
17 Sep 2021 10:30 Mullins Belize  0.1
17 Sep 2021 02:00 City Arroyo United States  0.1
17 Sep 2021 02:00 Arroyo City Subdivision Colonia United States  0.1
17 Sep 2021 02:00 Buena Vista United States  0.1
16 Sep 2021 22:30 Claura Honduras  0.1
16 Sep 2021 22:30 Pusuaya Honduras  0.1
18 Sep 2021 05:45 La Chacara Nicaragua  0.1
18 Sep 2021 05:45 El Capulin Nicaragua  0.1
18 Sep 2021 05:45 Condega Honduras  0.1
18 Sep 2021 05:45 Cedeno Honduras  0.1
18 Sep 2021 05:45 Mangle Alto Nicaragua  0.1
18 Sep 2021 05:45 Albania Honduras  0.1
17 Sep 2021 22:15 Chabihau Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2021 22:15 Mina de Oro Mexico  0.1
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Frenier United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Ruddock United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 06:00 La Branche United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 06:00 Kenner United States  0.1
18 Sep 2021 04:45 Paso Real Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2021 03:15 Carancahua United States  0.1
18 Sep 2021 03:15 El Campo Club Community United States  0.1
18 Sep 2021 03:15 Camp Hulen United States  0.1
18 Sep 2021 03:15 Palacios United States  0.1
18 Sep 2021 03:15 Collegeport United States  0.1
18 Sep 2021 03:15 Simpsonville United States  0.1
18 Sep 2021 03:15 Citrus Grove United States  0.1
18 Sep 2021 00:00 Seybaplaya Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2021 02:30 Sabancuy Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2021 02:30 Noham Mexico  0.1
15 Sep 2021 06:45 Cedar Grove United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 06:45 Gasque United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 06:45 Magnolia Springs United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 06:45 Oyster Bay United States  0.1
15 Sep 2021 06:45 Bon Secaur United States  0.1
17 Sep 2021 22:30 Pixoy Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2021 22:30 Telchac Puerto Mexico  0.1
15 Sep 2021 06:00 El Mezquite Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2021 22:00 Yahurabila Honduras  0.1
17 Sep 2021 22:00 Barra de Caratasca Honduras  0.1
18 Sep 2021 05:45 El Puente Nicaragua  0.1
18 Sep 2021 05:45 Las Pozas Nicaragua  0.1
15 Sep 2021 11:15 Las Guayabas Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2021 02:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2021 22:30 Celestum Mexico  0.1
17 Sep 2021 11:00 Stann Creek Town Belize  0.1