Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NAT-24
Off-shore

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NAT-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries French Polynesia, Kiribati
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 112 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 112 km/h n.a. 824 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 112 km/h n.a. 824 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

112 km/h

Up to 220 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Feb 2024 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormFrench Polynesia, Kiribati215,296
+
French Polynesia215,269 
Kiribati26 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 05 Feb 2024 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 05 Feb 2024 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 06 Feb 2024 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 06 Feb 2024 06:00 86 -
- - - - - Tokelau
GREEN 5 06 Feb 2024 12:00 86 -
- - - - - American Samoa
GREEN 6 06 Feb 2024 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 07 Feb 2024 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 07 Feb 2024 06:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 07 Feb 2024 12:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 07 Feb 2024 18:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 08 Feb 2024 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 08 Feb 2024 06:00 76 -
- - - - - French Polynesia
GREEN 13 08 Feb 2024 12:00 79 -
- - - - - French Polynesia
GREEN 14 08 Feb 2024 18:00 94 -
- - - - - French Polynesia
GREEN 15 09 Feb 2024 00:00 94 -
- - - - - French Polynesia, Kiribati
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Feb 2024 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmFrench Polynesia, Fiji128
+
French Polynesia62 
Fiji66 
100-250 mmTokelau, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, French Polynesia, Fiji283,017
+
Tokelau812 
American Samoa11 
Wallis and Futuna3,947 
Samoa21,203 
French Polynesia253,500 
Fiji3,541 
50-100 mmTokelau, Tuvalu, Cook Islands, Wallis and Futuna, Samoa, French Polynesia, Fiji192,902
+
Tokelau437 
Tuvalu268 
Cook Islands803 
Wallis and Futuna9,203 
Samoa164,297 
French Polynesia9,270 
Fiji8,621 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 05 Feb 2024 12:00 131 -
- - - - - Tuvalu, French Polynesia, Cook Islands
Blue 2 05 Feb 2024 18:00 128 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 06 Feb 2024 00:00 108 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 06 Feb 2024 06:00 121 -
- - - - - French Polynesia
Blue 5 06 Feb 2024 12:00 180 -
- - - - - American Samoa
Blue 6 06 Feb 2024 18:00 111 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 07 Feb 2024 00:00 118 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 07 Feb 2024 06:00 181 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 07 Feb 2024 12:00 202 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 07 Feb 2024 18:00 173 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 08 Feb 2024 00:00 199 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 08 Feb 2024 06:00 189 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 08 Feb 2024 12:00 208 -
- - - - - French Polynesia
Blue 14 08 Feb 2024 18:00 204 Few people
- - - - French Polynesia
Blue 15 09 Feb 2024 00:00 705 280 thousand
- - - Tokelau, Tuvalu, Cook Islands, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Samoa, French Polynesia, Fiji




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

No locations affected by storm surge > 10 cm

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Feb 2024 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
    

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