Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ISAIAS-20
in United States, Bahamas, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Haiti, Virgin Islands U.S., Turks and Caicos Islands, Virgin Islands British, Cuba, Anguilla, Aruba, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Venezuela, Colombia, Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago, Dominica, Jamaica

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2020-08-05 08:40


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 050838
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM EDT Wed Aug 05 2020

Surface observations indicate that Isaias continues to gradually
weaken over southeastern Quebec. There have been a couple of
observing sites with marine exposure along the St. Lawrence River
that have reported winds of around 35 kt within the past few
hours. Therefore, the initial intensity is set at that value for
this advisory. The post-tropical cyclone should continue to
weaken today, and the system is expected to be absorbed by a larger
extratropical low over eastern Canada on Thursday.

The cyclone has begun to decelerate and is now moving 015/24 kt.
The post-tropical cyclone should continue on a general
north-northeastward motion with an additional decrease in forward
speed over the next 12-24 hours. The updated NHC track forecast is
similar to previous advisory and is near the middle of the tightly
clustered dynamical model guidance.

This is the last NHC advisory on Isaias. Additional information
on the post-tropical cyclone can be found in products issued by
the Canadian Hurricane Center at:
https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 47.5N 71.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 05/1800Z 50.7N 70.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 06/0600Z 53.3N 69.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-08-05 08:39


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 050837
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM EDT Wed Aug 05 2020

...RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER EASTERN QUEBEC...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...47.5N 71.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNW OF QUEBEC CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias
was located near latitude 47.5 North, longitude 71.8 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 28
mph (44 km/h), and this general motion is expected with a decrease
in forward speed through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected, and the winds are expected to drop below
tropical-storm force this morning. The post-tropical cyclone is
expected to dissipate over southeastern Canada on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
to the northeast and east of the center primarily over and near
the St. Lawrence River.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gale-force winds will continue over and near the St.
Lawrence River this morning. Gale-force wind gusts are possible
elsewhere over southeastern Quebec today. See products issued by
Environment Canada for more information.

RAINFALL: Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected along
and near the track of Isaias across southern Quebec.

Even though the rainfall has ended, scattered minor to moderate and
isolated major river flooding is ongoing across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic with most rivers expected to fall below flood stage
by later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias will affect the coast of the
Northeast United States through this morning. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on the post-tropical
cyclone can be found in products issued by the Canadian Hurricane
Center at https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-08-05 08:39


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 050837
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
0900 UTC WED AUG 05 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.5N 71.8W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 24 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 480SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.5N 71.8W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 46.4N 72.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 50.7N 70.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 53.3N 69.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 47.5N 71.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-08-05 05:53


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 050550
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 05 2020

...ISAIAS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...46.1N 72.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SW OF QUEBEC CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning from Merrimack River Massachusetts to
Stonington Maine has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias
was located near latitude 46.1 North, longitude 72.2 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 35
mph (56 km/h), and this general motion is expected with a decrease
in forward speed through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and the winds
are expected to drop below tropical-storm force during the next few
hours. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate over
southeastern Canada tonight or on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (165 km)
to the northeast and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Gale-force winds are possible over portions of southeastern
Quebec for a few more hours. See products issued by Environment
Canada for more information.

RAINFALL: Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected along
and near the track of Isaias across Southern Quebec. Additional
rainfall of up to an inch is possible across western and northern
Maine overnight.

As the rainfall exits the United States, scattered minor to moderate
and isolated major river flooding is ongoing or forecast across
portions of the Mid-Atlantic with most rivers falling below flood
stage today. Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast will also
be susceptible to minor and possible moderate river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias will affect the mid-Atlantic and
Northeast coasts of the United States through this morning. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg

>

2020-08-05 04:04


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 050404

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 05.08.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 29.5N 68.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.08.2020 0 29.5N 68.9W 1018 12
1200UTC 05.08.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 43.9N 72.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.08.2020 0 43.9N 72.8W 1000 36
1200UTC 05.08.2020 12 48.8N 71.1W 1002 32
0000UTC 06.08.2020 24 52.2N 71.0W 999 25
1200UTC 06.08.2020 36 53.7N 69.6W 995 25
0000UTC 07.08.2020 48 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 050404

>

2020-08-05 04:04


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 050404

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.08.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 29.5N 68.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.08.2020 29.5N 68.9W WEAK
12UTC 05.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 43.9N 72.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.08.2020 43.9N 72.8W MODERATE
12UTC 05.08.2020 48.8N 71.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.08.2020 52.2N 71.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.08.2020 53.7N 69.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 050404

>

2020-08-05 02:49


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 050246
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020

Satellite and radar data, along with surface observations, indicate
that Isaias has lost its tropical cyclone characteristics as it
merges with a weak baroclinic zone over New England and
southeastern Canada. Thus, it is being designated a post-tropical
cyclone. The initial intensity is reduced to 40 kt based mainly on
a recent observation at the Isle of Shoals, New Hampshire, and
these winds are occurring over the Gulf of Maine well to the
southeast of the center. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to
weaken further, with winds dropping below 35 kt early tomorrow.
After that, the system is forecast to be absorbed into a large
baroclinic low over southeastern Canada between 36-48 h.

The initial motion remains north-northeastward or 020/33 kt. A
continued general north-northeastward motion with a decrease in
forward speed is expected until the cyclone is absorbed by the
larger low. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
forecast and is in the center of the tightly-clustered track
guidance models.

While Isaias is now post-tropical, the National Hurricane Center
will continue to issue advisories until the Tropical Storm Warning
can be discontinued along the coast of the United States.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm force winds that could cause tree damage and power
outages will continue over portions of New England for a few more
hours.

2. As the rainfall exits the United States, scattered minor to
moderate and isolated major river flooding is ongoing or forecast
across portions of the Mid-Atlantic with most rivers falling below
flood stage Wednesday. Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast
will also be susceptible to minor and possible moderate river
flooding.

3. The threat of tornadoes will continue over portions of Maine
for a few more hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 45.3N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 05/1200Z 49.1N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 06/0000Z 52.6N 70.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 06/1200Z 54.0N 68.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-08-05 02:48


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 050245
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020

...ISAIAS BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.3N 72.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ESE OF MONTREAL QUEBEC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of the
Merrimack River, Massachusetts.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Merrimack River Massachusetts to Stonington Maine

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case
during the next few hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Isaias was located near latitude 45.3 North, longitude 72.5 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near
38 mph (61 km/h), and this general motion is expected with a
decrease in forward speed through Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts, mainly over water to the southeast of the center.
Continued weakening is expected, and the winds are expected to drop
below tropical-storm force during the next few hours. The
post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate over southeastern
Canada Wednesday night or Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
to the southeast of the the center. The NOAA automated station at
Isle of Shoals, New Hampshire recently reported sustained winds of
46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 mph (81 km/h) at an
elevation of 63 ft (19 m).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are expected for a few more
hours in the tropical storm warning area in southern New England.
These winds could cause significant tree damage and power outages.

Gale-force winds are possible over portions of southeastern Quebec
for a few more hours. See products issued by Environment
Canada for more information.

RAINFALL: Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected along
and near the track of Isaias across Southern Quebec. Additional
rainfall of up to an inch is possible across western and northern
Maine overnight.

As the rainfall exits the United States, scattered minor to moderate
and isolated major river flooding is ongoing or forecast across
portions of the Mid-Atlantic with most rivers falling below flood
stage Wednesday. Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast will also
be susceptible to minor and possible moderate river flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across central and
eastern Maine for the next several hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias will affect the mid-Atlantic and
Northeast coasts of the United States through tonight. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-08-05 02:48


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 050245
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
0300 UTC WED AUG 05 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE
MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS TO STONINGTON MAINE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.3N 72.5W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 33 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 360SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.3N 72.5W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.0N 73.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 49.1N 71.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 52.6N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 54.0N 68.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.3N 72.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 05/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-08-04 23:52


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 042350
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020

...CENTER OF ISAIAS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.6N 73.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NNW OF RUTLAND VERMONT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Watch
Hill, Rhode Island, including Long Island and Long Island Sound.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Stonington Maine
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case
within the next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and surface observations near
latitude 43.6 North, longitude 73.0 West. Isaias is moving toward
the north-northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h), and this general motion
is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of
Isaias will continue to move farther inland over eastern New York
and Vermont this afternoon and evening, and over southern Canada
tonight.

Data from Doppler weather radars along with surface observations
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph
(80 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected this
evening, and Isaias is forecast to become post-tropical tonight or
early Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. During the past few hours, there have been numerous
reports of wind gusts of 40-50 mph (65-80 km/h) across portions of
Rhode Island, eastern Massachusetts, and southeastern New Hampshire.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Widespread tropical-storm conditions are expected tonight in
the tropical storm warning area in southern New England. These
winds could cause significant tree damage and power outages.

Gale-force winds are expected to spread into southeastern Quebec
tonight and Wednesday. See products issued by Environment
Canada for more information.

RAINFALL: Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected along
and near the track of Isaias across northeast New York, northern
Vermont, northern New Hampshire, and Southern Quebec.

Heavy rainfall near the path of Isaias could result in flash
flooding, particularly through urban areas and the surrounding
terrain of the Adirondack and Green Mountain Ranges through tonight.
Scattered minor to moderate and isolated major river flooding is
ongoing or forecast across portions of the Mid-Atlantic.
Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast will also be susceptible to
minor and possible moderate river flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across southern New
England through this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias will spread northward along the
mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts of the United States through
tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-08-04 21:36


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 042133 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 31...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020

Corrected Watches and Warnings summary.

...ISAIAS RACING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK...
...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THE THREAT OF
TORNADOES WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.7N 74.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM W OF ALBANY NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of
Sandy Point, New Jersey, including all of the Chesapeake Bay,
the Tidal Potomac River, and Delaware Bay. The Tropical Storm
Warning has also been discontinued north of Stonington, Maine.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sandy Point New Jersey to Stonington Maine
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case
within the next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and surface observations near
latitude 42.7 North, longitude 74.2 West. Isaias is moving toward
the north-northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h), and this general motion
is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of
Isaias will continue to move farther inland over eastern New York
and Vermont this afternoon and evening, and over southern Canada
tonight.

Data from Doppler weather radars along with surface observations
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph
(100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected this
afternoon and evening, followed by a faster rate of weakening
tonight. Isaias is forecast to become post-tropical tonight or early
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. During the past hour, a NOAA NOS observing site at
Sandy Hook, New Jersey, reported a sustained wind 41 mph (67 km/h)
and a gust to 50 mph (80 km/h). Wind gusts in excess of 50 mph (80
km/h) have also been reported at multiple sites in southeastern New
York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts during the past
hour.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sandy Hook NJ to Martha's Vineyard MA including Long Island Sound,
Block Island Sound, Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, and Vineyard
Sound...1-2 ft

WIND: Widespread tropical-storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area in eastern New York, Long Island, and
southern New England, with wind gusts to hurricane force possible.
These winds could cause significant tree damage and power outages.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New
England by late afternoon, and reach northern New England tonight.

Gale-force winds are expected to spread into southeastern Quebec
tonight and Wednesday. See products issued by Environment
Canada for more information.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Eastern New York into Vermont: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum
totals 6 inches.

Western Connecticut, western Massachusetts, New Hampshire and
western Maine: 1 to 3 inches. Southern Quebec: 1 to 3 inches.

Heavy rainfall near the path of Isaias, through the Hudson River
Valley, is likely to result in flash flooding, particularly through
urban areas and the surrounding terrain of the Catskills, Adirondack
and Green Mountain Ranges through Tuesday night. Scattered minor to
moderate river flooding is likely across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic. Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast will also be
susceptible to minor and possible moderate river flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across southern New
England late this afternoon. A risk for tornadoes may continue and
spread across parts of northern New England through this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias will spread northward along the
mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts of the United States today. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-08-04 21:35


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 042132 CCA
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
2100 UTC TUE AUG 04 2020

CORRECTED WATCHES AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SANDY
POINT...NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING ALL OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE TIDAL
POTOMAC RIVER...AND DELAWARE BAY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS
ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF STONINGTON...MAINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY POINT NEW JERSEY TO STONINGTON MAINE
* LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND
* MARTHA'S VINEYARD...NANTUCKET...AND BLOCK ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.7N 74.2W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 35 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 300SE 90SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.7N 74.2W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 75.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 46.3N 72.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 190SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 50.7N 71.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 53.3N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 54.1N 67.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.7N 74.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 05/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-08-04 20:59


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 042057
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020

NOAA Doppler radar data from Islip, New York (KOKX), indicated
70-kt winds just off the surface south of Long Island earlier this
afternoon, along with buoy reports from New York Harbor Inlet
(44065) that supported lowering the intensity to 55 kt, so that
value is used for this advisory.

The motion remains north-northeastward or 020/35 kt. Isaias will
continue moving north-northeastward through tonight, accompanied by
a gradual decrease in forward speed. In 12 hours or, the cyclone is
expected to interact with a larger extratropical over southeastern
Canada and degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone near western
Maine. By 24 hours, Isaias is expected to transition to an
extratropical low, and dissipate or become absorbed by the
aforementioned larger extratropical low. The new NHC track forecast
is just an extension of the previous advisory, and lies very close
to the tightly clustered consensus track models.

Isaias will continue to gradually spin down and lose its tropical
characteristics. The precipitation has decreased in size and also
has become more stratiform in appearance, which are indications that
the cyclone is gradually weakening. This downward trend should
continue until Isais becomes an extratropical low in 12-24 hours.

There also remains a risk of tornadoes across portions of New
England this afternoon and evening

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm force winds that could cause tree damage and power
outages will continue to spread across New England tonight.

2. Heavy rainfall near the path of Isaias, through the Hudson River
Valley, is likely to result in flash flooding, particularly through
urban areas and the surrounding terrain of the Catskills, Adirondack
and Green Mountain Ranges through Tuesday night. Scattered minor to
moderate river flooding is likely across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic. Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast will also be
susceptible to minor and possible moderate river flooding.

3. The threat of tornadoes will spread into New England this
afternoon and evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 42.7N 74.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 46.3N 72.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 05/1800Z 50.7N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 06/0600Z 53.3N 70.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 06/1800Z 54.1N 67.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-08-04 20:47


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 042045
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
2100 UTC TUE AUG 04 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF MANASQUAN
INLET...NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING ALL OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE TIDAL
POTOMAC RIVER...AND DELAWARE BAY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS
ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF STONINGTON...MAINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANASQUAN INLET NEW JERSEY TO STONINGTON MAINE
* LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND
* MARTHA'S VINEYARD...NANTUCKET...AND BLOCK ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.7N 74.2W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 35 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 300SE 90SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.7N 74.2W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 75.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 46.3N 72.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 190SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 50.7N 71.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 53.3N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 54.1N 67.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.7N 74.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 05/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-08-04 20:46


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 042045
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020

...ISAIAS RACING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK...
...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THE THREAT OF
TORNADOES WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.7N 74.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM W OF ALBANY NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of
Manasquan Inlet, New Jersey, including all of the Chesapeake Bay,
the Tidal Potomac River, and Delaware Bay. The Tropical Storm
Warning has also been discontinued north of Stonington, Maine.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manasquan Inlet New Jersey to Stonington Maine
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case
within the next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and surface observations near
latitude 42.7 North, longitude 74.2 West. Isaias is moving toward
the north-northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h), and this general motion
is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of
Isaias will continue to move farther inland over eastern New York
and Vermont this afternoon and evening, and over southern Canada
tonight.

Data from Doppler weather radars along with surface observations
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph
(100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected this
afternoon and evening, followed by a faster rate of weakening
tonight. Isaias is forecast to become post-tropical tonight or early
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center. During the past hour, a NOAA NOS observing site at
Sandy Hook, New Jersey, reported a sustained wind 41 mph (67 km/h)
and a gust to 50 mph (80 km/h). Wind gusts in excess of 50 mph (80
km/h) have also been reported at multiple sites in southeastern New
York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts during the past
hour.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sandy Hook NJ to Martha's Vineyard MA including Long Island Sound,
Block Island Sound, Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, and Vineyard
Sound...1-2 ft

WIND: Widespread tropical-storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area in eastern New York, Long Island, and
southern New England, with wind gusts to hurricane force possible.
These winds could cause significant tree damage and power outages.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New
England by late afternoon, and reach northern New England tonight.

Gale-force winds are expected to spread into southeastern Quebec
tonight and Wednesday. See products issued by Environment
Canada for more information.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Eastern New York into Vermont: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum
totals 6 inches.

Western Connecticut, western Massachusetts, New Hampshire and
western Maine: 1 to 3 inches. Southern Quebec: 1 to 3 inches.

Heavy rainfall near the path of Isaias, through the Hudson River
Valley, is likely to result in flash flooding, particularly through
urban areas and the surrounding terrain of the Catskills, Adirondack
and Green Mountain Ranges through Tuesday night. Scattered minor to
moderate river flooding is likely across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic. Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast will also be
susceptible to minor and possible moderate river flooding.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across southern New
England late this afternoon. A risk for tornadoes may continue and
spread across parts of northern New England through this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias will spread northward along the
mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts of the United States today. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-08-04 20:01


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 041959
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
400 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

...400 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...

Wind gusts to 66 mph (106 km/h) were recently reported at a
National Ocean Service Site at Sandy Hook North NJ, a Weatherflow
site at Shinnecock Light on Long Island, and another Weatherflow
site at Lighthouse Point in East Haven CT.

Additional wind gusts in excess of 50 mph have been reported across
portions of southeast New York, northeast New Jersey, Connecticut
and Rhode Island during the past hour.

Strong and damaging winds that could knock down trees and power
lines will continue to spread northward across southern New England.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.1N 74.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF ALBANY NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Zelinsky

>

2020-08-04 18:56


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 041854
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
300 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

...300 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...

On Long Island, New York, the following wind reports have been
received during the past hour...

Farmingdale Airport (KFRG)...gust to 78 mph (126 km/h)
JFK Airport (KJFK)...gust to 70 mph (113 km/h)
La Guardia Airport (KLGA)...gust to 69 mph (111 km/h)
Fire Island...gust 67 mph

Strong and damaging winds will continue to spread northward across
the New York City metropolitan area, including eastern Long Island
and southern New England, that could knock down trees and power
lines.


SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.5N 74.8W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM S OF MONTICELLO NEW YORK
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WNW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Roberts

>

2020-08-04 18:01


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 041759
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020

...ISAIAS RACING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...
...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THE THREAT OF
TORNADOES WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.9N 75.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM w OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of
Chincoteague, Virginia, and south of Smith Point in the Chesapeake
Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Chincoteague Virginia to Eastport Maine
* Chesapeake Bay north of Smith Point
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case
within the next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and surface observations near
latitude 40.9 North, longitude 75.1 West. Isaias is moving toward
the north-northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h), and this general motion
accompanied by some increase in forward speed is expected through
tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will continue
to move near or along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states today,
and move across the northeastern United States into southern Canada
tonight.

Data from Doppler weather radars along with surface observations
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph
(100 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is expected this
afternoon, followed by a faster rate of weakening tonight. Isaias
is forecast to become post-tropical tonight or early Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. The New York Harbor Entrance buoy (44065) recently
reported a sustained wind of 56 mph (91 km/h) and a gust to 72 mph
(117 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Widespread tropical-storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area in the mid-Atlantic states and
southern New England, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay
region today, with wind gusts to hurricane force possible. These
winds could cause significant tree damage and power outages.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New
England this afternoon and northern New England tonight.

Gale-force winds are expected to spread into southeastern Quebec
tonight and Wednesday. See products issued by Environment
Canada for more information.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Central and Northern Mid-Atlantic: Additional 2 to 4 inches,
isolated maximum storm totals of 8 inches.

Eastern New York into Vermont: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum
totals 6 inches.

Western Connecticut, western Massachusetts, New Hampshire and
western Maine: 1 to 3 inches.

Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias, will
result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast through tonight. Potentially
life-threatening urban flooding remains possible Philadelphia, and
elsewhere along and just west of the I-95 corridor today. Scattered
minor to moderate river flooding is likely across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic. Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast will also be
susceptible to minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across northern New Jersey
and southeastern New York, through southern New England, by late
afternoon. A risk for tornadoes may continue across northern New
England through this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias will spread northward along the
mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts of the United States today. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Roberts

>

2020-08-04 17:02


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 041700
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
100 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

...100 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND TORNADOES OCCURRING OVER
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW
YORK WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON...

The New York Harbor Entrance buoy (44065) recently reported a
sustained wind of 54 mph (86 km/h) and a gust to 63 mph (101 km/h).

Also, a Weatherflow observing site located at Barneget Inlet Light,
New Jersey, recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (86 km/h)
and a gust to 75 mph (121 km/h).

Strong and damaging winds are spreading northward into the New York
City metropolitan area that could knock down trees and power lines.


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.2N 75.4W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SW of DOYLESTOWN PENNSYLVANIA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WSW OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Roberts

>

2020-08-04 16:04


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 041602

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 04.08.2020

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 37.4N 76.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.08.2020 0 37.4N 76.4W 998 49
0000UTC 05.08.2020 12 43.5N 72.9W 994 39
1200UTC 05.08.2020 24 48.5N 69.9W 998 35
0000UTC 06.08.2020 36 52.5N 69.1W 996 27
1200UTC 06.08.2020 48 53.9N 67.5W 993 27
0000UTC 07.08.2020 60 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 041602

>

2020-08-04 16:03


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 041602

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.08.2020

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 37.4N 76.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.08.2020 37.4N 76.4W MODERATE
00UTC 05.08.2020 43.5N 72.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.08.2020 48.5N 69.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.08.2020 52.5N 69.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.08.2020 53.9N 67.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 041602

>

2020-08-04 15:59


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 041557
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1200 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

...1200 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND TORNADOES OCCURRING OVER
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...


A Weatherflow weather station at Long Beach Island Surf, New Jersey,
recently reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust to
59 mph (94 km/h).

Around 1053 AM EDT, this same weather observing station measured a
wind gust of 109 mph (176 km/h), which was associated with a
tornadic thunderstorm. Doppler weather radar data from Ft. Dix, New
Jersey, indicated Doppler velocities as high as 112 mph (180 km/h)
at an altitude of 1,590 above ground level at this same location.
However, this wind is not considered to be representative of
Isaias' larger wind field.

Also, a Weatherflow observing site located at Rutgers/Little Egg
Harbor, New Jersey, recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph
(84 km/h) and a gust to 70 mph (113 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.6N 75.8W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON DELAWARE
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WSW OF PHILADELPHIA PENNSYLVANIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Roberts

>

2020-08-04 15:01


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 041459
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020

Doppler radar data from Dover, Delaware (KDOX), and Ft. Dix, New
Jersey (KDIX) this morning continue to indicate 70-80 kt winds
between 4000-7000 ft over the ocean just offshore the Delmarva
peninsula and the southeastern coast of New Jersey, which would
normally correspond to 65-70 kt surface winds. However, these
velocity values have been collocated with only 15-25 dBZ
reflectivity echoes, so the typical 80-85 percent reduction factors
likely don't apply. Sustained observed surface winds of 50-55 kt
have been reported, so the initial intensity will be held at 60 kt,
but that is only for winds over the ocean and near the coast.

Isaias is moving north-northeastward or 020/30 kt. The cyclone will
continue to accelerate north-northeastward today and tonight within
strong southwesterly flow ahead of a deep-layer trough and
associated cold front approaching the mid-Atlantic and New England
areas from the west. By 24 h, the Isaias is expected to slow down
and degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone over Maine before it is
absorbed by a larger extratropical low located over southeastern
Canada. The new NHC track forecast is just an extension of the
previous advisory, and lies very close to the tightly clustered
consensus track models.

As Isaias moves north-northeastward through the Mid-Atlantic coast,
interaction with a strong upper-level jet maximum is forecast to
maintain the tropical storm's intensity longer than what typically
would be expected for inland decaying tropical cyclone. The global
models continue to indicate that Isaias is likely to produce
widespread tropical-storm conditions, with hurricane-force wind
gusts possible along the mid-Atlantic coast through this afternoon.
As a result, the gust factor at 12 h remains above the standard
20-percent value in the Forecast/Advisory Product (TCMAT4).

In addition to the wind threat, Isaias is expected to produce heavy
rainfall along and just west of the I-95 corridor today, and the
Weather Prediction Center has placed a portion of this area in a
high risk for life-threatening flash flooding.

There also remains a significant risk of tornadoes across the
mid-Atlantic coast and southeastern New York this afternoon,
possibly spreading into southern New England tonight.

Key Messages:

1. Widespread sustained tropical storm force winds and gusts to
hurricane force are expected along the mid-Atlantic coast, including
portions of the Chesapeake Bay region, through this afternoon, which
could cause tree damage and power outages. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to spread across New England tonight.

2. Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias,
will result in flash flooding, some of which may be significant in
the mid-Atlantic and Northeast through tonight. Potentially
life-threatening urban flooding remains possible in Philadelphia
and elsewhere along and just west of the I-95 corridor today.
Scattered minor to moderate river flooding is likely across portions
of the and the Mid-Atlantic. Quick-responding rivers in Northeast
will also be susceptible to minor river flooding.

3. Numerous tornadoes have already occurred over portions of the
mid-Atlantic coast this morning. The threat of tornadoes will
continue along the mid-Atlantic coast spread into New England this
afternoon.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 39.1N 76.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
12H 05/0000Z 43.2N 73.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/1200Z 48.2N 71.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 06/0000Z 52.0N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 06/1200Z 53.6N 69.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-08-04 14:54


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 041451 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 30...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020

Corrected reference location to Fredericktown, Maryland

...CENTER OF ISAIAS MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS EASTERN MARYLAND...
...STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.1N 76.1W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SSW OF FREDERICKTOWN MARYLAND
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SW OF PHILADELPHIA PENNSYLVANIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Duck,
North Carolina, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to Eastport Maine
* Chesapeake Bay
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case
within the next 12 to 18 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and surface observations
near latitude 39.1 North, longitude 76.1 West. Isaias is moving
toward the north-northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h), and this general
motion accompanied by some increase in forward speed is expected
through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will
continue to move near or along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states
today, and move across the northeastern United States into southern
Canada tonight.

Data from Doppler weather radars along with surface observations
indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Only gradual weakening is anticipated while
Isaias moves north-northeastward near the mid-Atlantic coast today.
A faster rate of weakening is expected to begin tonight, and the
system is forecast to become post-tropical tonight or early
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. During the past hour, a sustained wind of 55 mph
(89 km/h) and a gust to 65 mph (105 km/h) were reported by a
Weatherflow site at Ocean City, Maryland. A sustained wind of 45
mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 57 mph (92 km/h) were reported at Ocean
City-South Beach, New Jersey.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Ocracoke Inlet NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border including
Pamlico Sound, Albemarle Sound, Pamlico and Neuse Rivers...1-2 ft

North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Martha's Vineyard
including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, Delaware Bay,
Long Island Sound, Block Island Sound, Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, and Vineyard Sound...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Widespread tropical-storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area in the mid-Atlantic states, including
portions of the Chesapeake Bay region today, with wind gusts to
hurricane force possible. These winds could cause significant tree
damage and power outages.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New
England this afternoon and northern New England tonight.

Gale-force winds are expected to spread into southeastern Quebec
tonight and Wednesday. See products issued by Environment
Canada for more information.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Central and Northern Mid-Atlantic: Additional 2 to 4 inches,
isolated maximum storm totals of 8 inches.

Eastern New York into Vermont: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum
totals 6 inches.

Western Connecticut, western Massachusetts, New Hampshire and
western Maine: 1 to 3 inches.

Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias, will
result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast through tonight. Potentially
life-threatening urban flooding remains possible Philadelphia, and
elsewhere along and just west of the I-95 corridor today. Scattered
minor to moderate river flooding is likely across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic. Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast will also be
susceptible to minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across northern New Jersey
and southeastern New York, through southern New England, by late
afternoon. A risk for tornadoes may continue across northern New
England through this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias will spread northward along the
mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts of the United States today. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-08-04 14:44


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 041442
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020

...CENTER OF ISAIAS MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS EASTERN MARYLAND...
...STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.1N 76.1W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SSW OF FREDERICK MARYLAND
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SW OF PHILADELPHIA PENNSYLVANIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Duck,
North Carolina, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to Eastport Maine
* Chesapeake Bay
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case
within the next 12 to 18 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and surface observations
near latitude 39.1 North, longitude 76.1 West. Isaias is moving
toward the north-northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h), and this general
motion accompanied by some increase in forward speed is expected
through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will
continue to move near or along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states
today, and move across the northeastern United States into southern
Canada tonight.

Data from Doppler weather radars along with surface observations
indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Only gradual weakening is anticipated while
Isaias moves north-northeastward near the mid-Atlantic coast today.
A faster rate of weakening is expected to begin tonight, and the
system is forecast to become post-tropical tonight or early
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. During the past hour, a sustained wind of 55 mph
(89 km/h) and a gust to 65 mph (105 km/h) were reported by a
Weatherflow site at Ocean City, Maryland. A sustained wind of 45
mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 57 mph (92 km/h) were reported at Ocean
City-South Beach, New Jersey.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Ocracoke Inlet NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border including
Pamlico Sound, Albemarle Sound, Pamlico and Neuse Rivers...1-2 ft

North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Martha's Vineyard
including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, Delaware Bay,
Long Island Sound, Block Island Sound, Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, and Vineyard Sound...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Widespread tropical-storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area in the mid-Atlantic states, including
portions of the Chesapeake Bay region today, with wind gusts to
hurricane force possible. These winds could cause significant tree
damage and power outages.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New
England this afternoon and northern New England tonight.

Gale-force winds are expected to spread into southeastern Quebec
tonight and Wednesday. See products issued by Environment
Canada for more information.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Central and Northern Mid-Atlantic: Additional 2 to 4 inches,
isolated maximum storm totals of 8 inches.

Eastern New York into Vermont: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum
totals 6 inches.

Western Connecticut, western Massachusetts, New Hampshire and
western Maine: 1 to 3 inches.

Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias, will
result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast through tonight. Potentially
life-threatening urban flooding remains possible Philadelphia, and
elsewhere along and just west of the I-95 corridor today. Scattered
minor to moderate river flooding is likely across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic. Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast will also be
susceptible to minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across northern New Jersey
and southeastern New York, through southern New England, by late
afternoon. A risk for tornadoes may continue across northern New
England through this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias will spread northward along the
mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts of the United States today. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-08-04 14:44


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 041441
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
1500 UTC TUE AUG 04 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF
DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO EASTPORT MAINE
* CHESAPEAKE BAY
* TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER
* DELAWARE BAY
* LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND
* MARTHA'S VINEYARD...NANTUCKET...AND BLOCK ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 76.1W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 30 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 76.1W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 76.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 43.2N 73.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 70SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 48.2N 71.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 52.0N 71.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 53.6N 69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.1N 76.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 04/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-08-04 13:49


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 041347
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1000 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

...1000 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND TORNADOES OCCURRING OVER
EASTERN MARYLAND AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...

A Weatherflow weather station at Onacock, Virginia, recently
reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust to
70 mph (113 km/h).

Another Weatherflow weather station at Ocean City, Maryland,
recently reported a sustained wind of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a gust
to 61 mph (98 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.7N 76.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF ANNAPOLIS MARYLAND
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SW OF PHILADELPHIA PENNSYLVANIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Roberts

>

2020-08-04 12:53


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 041250
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
900 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

...900 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND TORNADOES OCCURRING OVER
EASTERN MARYLAND AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...

A NOAA NOS/COOPS weather station at York River East, Virginia,
recently reported a sustained wind of 59 mph (94 km/h) and a gust
to 94 mph (150 km/h).

Another NOAA NOS/COOPS weather station at Rappahannock Shoal,
Virginia, recently reported a sustained wind of 53 mph (85 km/h)
and a gust to 85 mph (135 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.2N 76.6W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM SSW OF WILDEWOOD MARYLAND
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF ANNAPOLIS MARYLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Roberts

>

2020-08-04 12:00


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 041158
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020

...CENTER OF ISAIAS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...
...STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.7N 76.8W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM SSE OF TAPPAHANNOCK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued for the Neuse River
North Carolina.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia
border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City North Carolina to Eastport Maine
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case
within the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located over southeastern Virginia near latitude 37.7 North,
longitude 76.8 West. Isaias is moving toward the north-northeast
near 33 mph (54 km/h), and this general motion accompanied by some
additional increase in forward speed is expected through today. On
the forecast track, the center of Isaias will continue to move
near or along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states today, and move
across the northeastern United States into southern Canada tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only gradual weakening is anticipated while Isaias moves
north-northeastward near the mid-Atlantic coast today. A faster
rate of weakening is expected to begin tonight, and the system is
forecast to become post-tropical tonight or early Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. Sustained winds of 63 mph (101 km/h) and a gust to
77 mph (124 km/h) were recently reported at Third Island, Virginia,
at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet NC, including the Neuse River...1-2
ft

Ocracoke Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border including
Pamlico Sound, Albemarle Sound, and Pamlico River...3-5 ft

North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Martha's Vineyard
including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, Delaware Bay,
Long Island Sound, Block Island Sound, Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, and Vineyard Sound...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Widespread tropical-storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area from North Carolina through the
mid-Atlantic states, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay region
today, with wind gusts to hurricane force possible. These winds
could cause tree damage and power outages.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New
England this afternoon and northern New England tonight.

Gale-force winds are expected to spread into southeastern Quebec
tonight and Wednesday. See products issued by Environment
Canada for more information.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Central and eastern North Carolina into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6
inches, isolated maximum totals 8 inches.

Eastern New York into Vermont: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum
totals 6 inches.

Western Connecticut, western Massachusetts, New Hampshire and
western Maine: 1 to 3 inches.

Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias, will
result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in North Carolina through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through
tonight. Potentially life-threatening urban flooding is possible in
D.C., Baltimore, and elsewhere along and just west of the I-95
corridor today. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is
likely across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic.
Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast will also be susceptible
to minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are most likely through midday from southeast
Virginia to New Jersey. Tornadoes will remain possible this
afternoon and evening from southeast New York across New England.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias will spread northward along the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts of the United States today. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

Hourly Tropical Cyclone Update statements will begin at 900 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-08-04 08:53


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 040851
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020

Isaias made landfall near Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina, a few
minutes after the previous advisory package was issued. Since
that time, the center of Isaias has been moving quickly
north-northeastward across eastern North Carolina. Now that the
inner core of Isaias has moved inland, the peak surface winds have
decreased despite Doppler radar data still showing an area of
75-85 kt winds aloft. The latest surface observations indicated
that strong winds are occuring over the North Carolina Sounds and
Outer Banks. Based on a blend of the available data, the initial
wind speed is set at 60 kt for this advisory.

As the tropical storm moves northward near the Mid-Atlantic coast,
interaction with a strong jet stream is likely to result in a
slower-than-typical weakening rate. The global model guidance
indicates that Isaias is likely to produce widespread
tropical-storm conditions, with hurricane-force wind gusts possible
along the mid-Atlantic coast through this afternoon. As a result,
the gust factor at 12 h has been increased above the standard 20
percent in the Forecast/Advisory (TCMAT4). Isaias is forecast to
weaken more quickly tonight as it moves into eastern Canada and
becomes post-tropical. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to be
absorbed by a larger extratropical low in 2-3 days, if not sooner.

Isaias is moving north-northeastward or 020/24 kt. The cyclone is
forecast to continue accelerating north-northeastward today as it
is embedded in strong south-southwesterly flow ahead of a deep-layer
trough over the Great Lakes region. After 24 h, the post-tropical
cyclone is expected to decelerate before it is absorbed by the
extratropical low. The updated NHC track forecast is near the
center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope.

In addition to the storm surge and wind threats, Isaias is expected
to produce heavy rainfall along and just west of the I-95 corridor
today, and the Weather Prediction Center has placed a portion of
this area in a high risk for life-threatening flash flooding.
There is also a risk of tornadoes from southeast Virginia to New
Jersey through midday. The risk of tornadoes will spread northward
into southeastern New York this afternoon and across New England by
tonight.


Key Messages:

1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways of
the North Carolina coast, including portions of Pamlico and
Albemarle Sounds. Residents in these areas should follow advice
given by local emergency officials.

2. Isaias is expected to bring widespread sustained tropical storm
force winds and wind gusts to hurricane force to the mid-Atlantic
coast, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay region, through
this afternoon, which could cause tree damage and power outages.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across New England
tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias,
will result in flash flooding, some of which may be significant in
North Carolina through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through
tonight. Potentially life-threatening urban flooding is possible in
D.C., Baltimore, and elsewhere along and just west of the I-95
corridor today. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is
likely across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic.
Quick-responding rivers in Northeast will also be susceptible to
minor river flooding.

4. Tornadoes have already occurred over portions of northeastern
North Carolina and southeastern Virginia overnight. The threat of
tornadoes will spread northward along the mid-Atlantic coast today
and then across New England by tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 36.3N 77.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
12H 04/1800Z 40.3N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/0600Z 45.8N 72.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 05/1800Z 50.3N 70.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 06/0600Z 53.2N 69.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg

>

2020-08-04 08:53


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 040850
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020

...CENTER OF ISAIAS NEARING SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
...STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.3N 77.5W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SE OF ROANOKE RAPIDS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All warnings have been discontinued for the coast of North
Carolina south of Surf City.

The Storm Surge Watch south of Surf City has also been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia
border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City North Carolina to Eastport Maine
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located over northeastern North Carolina near latitude 36.3 North,
longitude 77.5 West. Isaias is moving toward the north-northeast
near 28 mph (44 km/h), and this general motion accompanied by some
additional increase in forward speed is expected through today. On
the forecast track, the center of Isaias will to move into
southeastern Virginia early this morning, near or along the coast of
the mid-Atlantic states today, and across the northeastern United
States into southern Canada tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only gradual weakening is anticipated while Isaias moves
north-northeastward near the mid-Atlantic coast today. A faster
rate of weakening is expected to begin tonight, and the system is
forecast to become post-tropical tonight or early Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. Sustained winds of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a gust to
63 mph (102 km/h) was recently reported at Duck, North Carolina.
Sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h)
were also reported at Poquoson, Virginia.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Little River Inlet SC to Surf City NC...1-2 ft

Surf City to Ocracoke Inlet NC...2-4 ft

Ocracoke Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border including
Pamlico Sound, Albemarle Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...3-5 ft

North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Martha's Vineyard
including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, Delaware Bay,
Long Island Sound, Block Island Sound, Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, and Vineyard Sound...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Widespread tropical-storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area from coastal North Carolina through the
mid-Atlantic states, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay region
today, with wind gusts to hurricane force possible. These winds
could cause tree damage and power outages.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New
England this afternoon and northern New England tonight.

Gale-force winds are expected to spread into southeastern Quebec
tonight and Wednesday. See products issued by Environment
Canada for more information.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Central and eastern North Carolina into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6
inches, isolated maximum totals 8 inches.

Eastern New York into Vermont: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum
totals 6 inches.

Western Connecticut, western Massachusetts, New Hampshire and
western Maine: 1 to 3 inches.

Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias, will
result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in North Carolina through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through
tonight. Potentially life-threatening urban flooding is possible in
D.C., Baltimore, and elsewhere along and just west of the I-95
corridor today. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is
likely across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic.
Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast will also be susceptible
to minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are most likely through midday from southeast
Virginia to New Jersey. Tornadoes will remain possible this
afternoon and evening from southeast New York across New England.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
southeast coast of the United States and will spread northward
along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts of the United States
today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg

>

2020-08-04 08:52


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 040849
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
0900 UTC TUE AUG 04 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTH OF SURF CITY.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH SOUTH OF SURF CITY HAS ALSO BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS
* OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY TO OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO EASTPORT MAINE
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* CHESAPEAKE BAY
* TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER
* DELAWARE BAY
* LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND
* MARTHA'S VINEYARD...NANTUCKET...AND BLOCK ISLAND

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A
LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 77.5W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 24 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 77.5W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 78.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 40.3N 75.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 70 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 70SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 45.8N 72.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 50.3N 70.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 53.2N 69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N 77.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 04/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-08-04 07:58


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 040756
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
400 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

...4 AM POSITION UPDATE...
...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

Greenville, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of
38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 51 mph (82 km/h).

A weather station in Pamlico Sound recently reported a sustained
wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h).

A sustained wind of 51 mph (81 km/h) and a gust to 71 mph (115
km/h) was recently reported at Alligator Bridge over the Alligator
River, just south of Albemarle Sound.

This will be the final hourly position update issued for Tropical
Storm Isaias. The next full advisory will be issued at 5 AM EDT
(0900 UTC).


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.9N 77.7W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM ENE OF ROCKY MOUNT/WILSON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NW OF GREENVILLE CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Brown

>

2020-08-04 06:59


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 040656
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
300 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

...ISAIAS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND THE THREAT OF TORNADOES
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...

A weather station in Pamlico Sound recently reported a sustained
wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h).

The hurricane warnings for the coast of southern North Carolina
will remain in effect until tropical storm conditions diminish in a
couple of hours.


SUMMARY OF 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 78.0W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WSW OF GREENVILLE NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Brown

>

2020-08-04 05:56


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 040553
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020

...CENTER OF ISAIAS MOVING QUICKLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.0N 78.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF GREENVILLE NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings south of Little River Inlet
South Carolina have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia
border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Little River Inlet South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City North Carolina to Eastport Maine
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located
near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 78.1 West. Isaias is moving
toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general
motion accompanied by an increase in forward speed is expected
through today. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will
continue to move across eastern North Carolina early this morning.
The center will move into southeastern Virginia around daybreak,
near or along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states today, and
continue across the northeastern United States tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only gradual weakening is anticipated while Isaias moves
north-northeastward near the mid-Atlantic coast today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km). A wind gust to 64 mph (104 km/h) was recently
reported near Bogue, North Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Little River Inlet SC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...2-4 ft

Ocracoke Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border including
Pamlico Sound, Albemarle Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...3-5 ft

North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Martha's Vineyard
including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, Delaware Bay,
Long Island Sound, Block Island Sound, Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, and Vineyard Sound...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue across portions of the
hurricane warning area for another hour or two.

Widespread tropical-storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area from coastal North Carolina to the
mid-Atlantic states, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay
region, later today, with wind gusts to hurricane force possible.
These winds could cause tree damage and power outages.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New
England this afternoon and northern New England tonight and early
Wednesday.

Gale-force winds are expected to spread into southeastern Quebec
tonight and Wednesday. See products issued by Environment
Canada for more information.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.

Eastern New York and western New England from Connecticut to New
Hampshire: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum totals 6 inches.

Western and northern Maine: 1 to 3 inches.

Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias, will
result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through
Wednesday. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible
across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic.
Quick-responding rivers in Northeast will also be susceptible to
minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible across eastern North
Carolina early this morning, and from eastern Virginia
northeastward into southern New England today.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
southeast coast of the United States and will spread northward
along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts of the United States
today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg

>

2020-08-04 04:59


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 040456
TCUAT4

Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
100 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

...100 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

...ISAIAS MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...STRONG WINDS SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

A weather station on Johnny Mercer Pier at Wrightsville Beach,
North Carolina, measured sustained winds of 67 mph (107
km/h) and a gust to 84 mph (135 km/h) around 1200 AM EDT.

A wind gust to 63 mph (101 km/h) was recently reported at the New
River Marine Corps Air Station in Jacksonville, North Carolina.


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.6N 78.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NNW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg

>

2020-08-04 04:03


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 040402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 04.08.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.9N 68.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.08.2020 0 22.9N 68.8W 1017 21
1200UTC 04.08.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 33.1N 79.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.08.2020 0 33.1N 79.0W 986 67
1200UTC 04.08.2020 12 37.7N 76.6W 989 61
0000UTC 05.08.2020 24 43.2N 73.1W 991 41
1200UTC 05.08.2020 36 48.0N 70.1W 997 37
0000UTC 06.08.2020 48 52.4N 69.1W 998 24
1200UTC 06.08.2020 60 54.5N 68.2W 997 20
0000UTC 07.08.2020 72 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 040401

>

2020-08-04 04:03


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 040359
TCUAT4

Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1200 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

...1200 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

...EYE OF ISAIAS MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

A weather station on Johnny Mercer Pier at Wrightsville Beach,
North Carolina, recently measured sustained winds of 62 mph (100
km/h) and a gust to 76 mph (122 km/h).

A sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 74 mph (119
km/h) was recently reported at Wilmington, North Carolina.


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.2N 78.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM W OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg

>

2020-08-04 03:19


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 040316
TCUAT4

Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1115 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Doppler radar imagery and surface observations indicate that eye of
Hurricane Isaias made landfall in southern North Carolina
around 1110 PM EDT (0310 UTC) near Ocean Isle Beach, with maximum
sustained winds of 85 mph (140 km/h).

A weather station at Oak Island, North Carolina, recently reported
sustained winds of 76 mph (122 km/h) and a gust to 87 mph (140
km/h).

A data buoy near the coast of North Carolina has recently reported
a minimum pressure of 988 MB (29.18 inches).

SUMMARY OF 1115 PM EDT...0315 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 78.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky/Beven

>

2020-08-04 02:50


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 040248
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING ONTO THE COAST OF EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 78.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect from Ocracoke Inlet North
Carolina to Oregon Inlet North Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect north of Stonington Maine
to Eastport Maine.

The Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Warning south of the
South Santee River has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia
border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City North Carolina to Eastport Maine
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was
located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 78.5 West. Isaias is
moving toward the north-northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this
general motion accompanied by a gradual increase in forward
speed is expected through tonight followed by a further increase in
the forward speed on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Isaias will make landfall in southern North Carolina during the
next hour or two, then move across eastern North Carolina for the
rest of the night. The center move near or along the coast of the
mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday, and continue across the northeastern
United States Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall.
After landfall, only gradual weakening is anticipated after Isaias
makes landfall in the Carolinas and moves across the U.S.
mid-Atlantic region tonight and Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km). A station at Frying Pan Shoals, North Carolina, recently
reported sustained winds of 72 mph (116 km/h) and a wind gust of 93
mph (150 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft

Edisto Beach to South Santee River SC...1-3 ft

Cape Fear to Ocracoke Inlet NC...2-4 ft

Ocracoke Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border including
Pamlico Sound, Albemarle Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...3-5 ft

North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Martha's Vineyard
including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, Delaware Bay,
Long Island Sound, Block Island Sound, Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, and Vineyard Sound...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading across the southern
portion of the hurricane warning area in South and North Carolina at
this time, with tropical storm conditions spreading onshore farther
to the north.

Widespread tropical-storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area from coastal North Carolina to the
mid-Atlantic states, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay
region, later tonight and Tuesday, with wind gusts to hurricane
force possible. These winds could cause tree damage and power
outages.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New
England Tuesday afternoon and northern New England Tuesday night
and early Wednesday.

Gale-force winds are expected to spread into southeastern Quebec
Tuesday night and Wednesday. See products issued by Environment
Canada for more information.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.

Eastern New York and western New England from Connecticut to New
Hampshire: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum totals 6 inches.

Western and northern Maine: 1 to 3 inches.

Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias, will
result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through
Wednesday. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible
across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic.
Quick-responding rivers in Northeast will also be susceptible to
minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible across eastern North
Carolina tonight, and from eastern Virginia northeastward into
southern New England on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-08-04 02:50


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 040248
TCMAT4

HURRICANE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
0300 UTC TUE AUG 04 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM OCRACOKE INLET NORTH
CAROLINA TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT NORTH OF STONINGTON MAINE
TO EASTPORT MAINE.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND STORM SURGE WARNING SOUTH OF THE
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS
* OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO EASTPORT MAINE
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* CHESAPEAKE BAY
* TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER
* DELAWARE BAY
* LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND
* MARTHA'S VINEYARD...NANTUCKET...AND BLOCK ISLAND

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY
ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 78.5W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 90SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 78.5W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 79.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 37.0N 76.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 42.0N 73.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 46.8N 70.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 50.8N 68.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 52.9N 66.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 78.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 04/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-08-04 01:00


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 040057
TCUAT4

Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
900 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA
Doppler radars indicate that the maximum sustained winds associated
with Hurricane Isaias have increased to 85 mph (135 km/h) with
higher gusts. The minimum pressure measured by the plane was 988 mb
(29.18 inches).

NOAA buoy 41004 recent reported sustained wind of 67 mph (108 km/h)
and a gust to 78 mph (126 km/h) in the southwest eyewall of Isaias.


SUMMARY OF 900 PM EDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 78.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Beven

>

2020-08-04 00:02


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 040000 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 27A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

Corrected to add extent of hurricane-force winds and surface ob

...ISAIAS REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL TONIGHT WITH DANGEROUS WINDS AND STORM SURGE...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 79.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Edisto Beach has been
discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning south of Folly Beach has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Folly Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers
* Oregon Inlet North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Oregon Inlet North Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Surf City North Carolina to Stonington Maine
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Stonington to Eastport Maine

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located
by NOAA Doppler weather radars and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 79.0 West.
Isaias is moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h),
and this general motion accompanied by a gradual increase in forward
speed is expected through tonight followed by a further increase in
the forward speed on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Isaias will approach the coasts of northeastern South Carolina and
southern North Carolina within the hurricane warning area during the
next few hours. The center will then move inland across eastern
North Carolina early Tuesday morning, move along the coast of the
mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday, and continue across the northeastern
United States Tuesday night.

Data from NOAA Doppler weather radars and the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to ear
75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening
is possible before landfall. After landfall, only gradual weakening
is anticipated after Isaias makes landfall in the Carolinas and
moves across the U.S. mid-Atlantic region tonight and Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (40 km) from
the center, while tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
125 miles (205 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 41004 recently
reported sustained winds of 60 mph (96 km/h), and a Weatherflow
station at Winyah Bay, South Carolina recently reported sustained
winds of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a wind gust of 69 mph (111 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft and buoy data is 988
mb (29.18 inches). NOAA buoy 41004 recently reported a minimum
pressure of 988.9 mb (29.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft

Folly Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

Cape Fear NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border including Pamlico
Sound, Albemarle Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...2-4 ft

Savannah River to Folly Beach SC...1-3 ft

North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Martha's Vineyard
including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, Delaware Bay,
Long Island Sound, Block Island Sound, Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, and Vineyard Sound...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in South and North Carolina this evening and tonight,
with tropical storm conditions spreading onshore in the next few
hours.

Widespread tropical-storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area from coastal North Carolina to the
mid-Atlantic states, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay
region, tonight and Tuesday, with wind gusts to hurricane force
possible. These winds could cause tree damage and power outages.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New
England Tuesday afternoon and northern New England Tuesday night
and early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.

Eastern New York and western New England from Connecticut to New
Hampshire: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum totals 6 inches.

Western and northern Maine: 1 to 3 inches.

Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias, will
result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through
Wednesday. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible
across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic.
Quick-responding rivers in Northeast will also be susceptible to
minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible near northeastern South
Carolina coastal areas by early this evening, before spreading
across eastern North Carolina tonight into Tuesday morning. A couple
of tornadoes will be possible on Tuesday from eastern Virginia
northeastward into southern New England.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-08-03 23:49


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 032346
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

...ISAIAS REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL TONIGHT WITH DANGEROUS WINDS AND STORM SURGE...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 79.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Edisto Beach has been
discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning south of Folly Beach has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Folly Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers
* Oregon Inlet North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Oregon Inlet North Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Surf City North Carolina to Stonington Maine
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Stonington to Eastport Maine

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located
by NOAA Doppler weather radars and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 79.0 West.
Isaias is moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h),
and this general motion accompanied by a gradual increase in forward
speed is expected through tonight followed by a further increase in
the forward speed on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Isaias will approach the coasts of northeastern South Carolina and
southern North Carolina within the hurricane warning area during the
next few hours. The center will then move inland across eastern
North Carolina early Tuesday morning, move along the coast of the
mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday, and continue across the northeastern
United States Tuesday night.

Data from NOAA Doppler weather radars and the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to ear
75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening
is possible before landfall. After landfall, only gradual weakening
is anticipated after Isaias makes landfall in the Carolinas and
moves across the U.S. mid-Atlantic region tonight and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 41004 recently reported sustained winds
of 60 mph (96 km/h), and sustained tropical-storm-force winds have
been reported along the South Carolina coast between Charleston and
Georgetown.

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft and buoy data is 988
mb (29.18 inches). NOAA buoy 41004 recently reported a minimum
pressure of 988.9 mb (29.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft

Folly Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

Cape Fear NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border including Pamlico
Sound, Albemarle Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...2-4 ft

Savannah River to Folly Beach SC...1-3 ft

North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Martha's Vineyard
including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, Delaware Bay,
Long Island Sound, Block Island Sound, Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, and Vineyard Sound...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in South and North Carolina this evening and tonight,
with tropical storm conditions spreading onshore in the next few
hours.

Widespread tropical-storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area from coastal North Carolina to the
mid-Atlantic states, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay
region, tonight and Tuesday, with wind gusts to hurricane force
possible. These winds could cause tree damage and power outages.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New
England Tuesday afternoon and northern New England Tuesday night
and early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.

Eastern New York and western New England from Connecticut to New
Hampshire: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum totals 6 inches.

Western and northern Maine: 1 to 3 inches.

Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias, will
result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through
Wednesday. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible
across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic.
Quick-responding rivers in Northeast will also be susceptible to
minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible near northeastern South
Carolina coastal areas by early this evening, before spreading
across eastern North Carolina tonight into Tuesday morning. A couple
of tornadoes will be possible on Tuesday from eastern Virginia
northeastward into southern New England.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-08-03 21:01


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 032059
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

Isaias is undergoing its daily reorganization phase, with a ragged
eye-like feature now showing up in NOAA Doppler weather radars from
Charleston, Wilmington, and Jacksonville. The last Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance flight reported a peak SFMR-derived surface
wind speed of 62 kt in the southwest quadrant around 1630Z while
Isaias was experiencing a center reformation further to the east.
Since then, Doppler velocities of 70-75 kt have been observed
between 10,000-15,000 ft in the northern semicircle, but within
reflectivity regions less than 35 dBZ, which suggests that a the
reduction factor is likely less than the 90-percent value typically
used. Thus the intensity is being held at 60 kt, which means that
Isaias is very near hurricane status. Another Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance will be investigating the cyclone around 0000Z
this evening.

Isaias is now moving north-northeastward 015/14 kt. The new NHC
model guidance remains in excellent agreement on Isaias continuing
to gradually accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward for
the next 36 hours ahead of a powerful deep-layer trough and
associated cold front. The cyclone should make landfall later this
evening near the South Carolina-North Carolina border, and then
accelerate north-northeastward at 25-30 kt across eastern North
Carolina early Tuesday, eastern Virginia and the Delmarva peninsula
Tuesday afternoon, and into New England Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. The new NHC track forecast is just an update and
extension of the previous advisory track, and lies very close to a
blend of the tightly packed multi-model consensus aids TVCA, GFEX,
TVCX, and NOAA-HCCA.

Satellite animation and special 1800Z upper-air soundings indicate
that the vertical shear across Isaias has weakened and has also
become more southwesterly, which better aligns with the forecast
track. Given this and the improved structure of the system, Isaias
is still expected to strengthen and regain hurricane status before
making landfall, and most of the intensity guidance shows a 60-65 kt
system at that time. It should be emphasized that there is little
difference between a strong tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane
in terms of impacts.

After landfall, Isaias is forecast to only slowly weaken due to
interaction with an unusually strong 100-120 kt jetstream. The
expected strong baroclinic forcing will keep Isaias' circulation
intact and also produce very strong wind gusts along the
mid-Atlantic coast tomorrow. As a result, the gust factors at 24-48
h have been increased above the standard 20 percent in the
Forecast/Advisory (TCMAT4). The cyclone is forecast to be absorbed
by a larger extratropical low over Canada in 3-4 days.

Key Messages:

1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways of
northeastern South Carolina and the North Carolina coast, including
portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Isaias is expected to be at or near hurricane strength when it
reaches the coast of northeastern South Carolina and southern North
Carolina in a few hours, and hurricane conditions are expected in
the Hurricane Warning area this evening.

3. Isaias is expected to bring widespread sustained tropical storm
force winds and wind gusts to hurricane force to the mid-Atlantic
coast, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay region, on Tuesday,
which could cause tree damage and power outages. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to spread across New England late Tuesday
into early Wednesday.

4. Heavy rainfall along the East Coast near the path of Isaias will
result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas, mid-Atlantic and northeast through
Wednesday. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible
across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic. Quick-
responding rivers in the northeast will also be susceptible to minor
river flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 32.0N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 34.7N 78.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/1800Z 39.3N 75.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/0600Z 44.5N 71.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/1800Z 48.8N 68.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 06/0600Z 52.0N 67.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 06/1800Z 54.3N 63.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-08-03 20:44


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 032042
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

...ISAIAS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
TONIGHT AS A HURRICANE WITH DANGEROUS WINDS AND STORM SURGE...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 79.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to
Stonington Maine.

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Savannah River has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers
* Oregon Inlet North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Oregon Inlet North Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Surf City North Carolina to Stonington Maine
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Stonington to Eastport Maine

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 32.0 North,
longitude 79.4 West. Isaias is moving toward the north-northeast
near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion accompanied by a
gradual increase in forward speed is expected through tonight
followed by a further increase in the forward speed on Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Isaias will approach the coasts of
northeastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina within the
hurricane warning area this evening. The center will then move
inland across eastern North Carolina early Tuesday morning, move
along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday, and continue
across the northeastern United States Tuesday night.

Data from NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is forecast later this afternoon or early evening, and
Isaias is expected to make landfall tonight at or near hurricane
strength along the coast of northeastern South Carolina or southern
North Carolina. Only gradual weakening is anticipated after Isaias
makes landfall in the Carolinas and moves across the U.S.
mid-Atlantic region tonight and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. During the past couple of hours, a sustained wind
of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h) were measured by
a Weatherflow site at Folly Beach Pier, South Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft

Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

Cape Fear NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border including Pamlico
Sound, Albemarle Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...2-4 ft

Savannah River to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft

North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Martha's Vineyard
including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, Delaware Bay,
Long Island Sound, Block Island Sound, Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, and Vineyard Sound...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in South and North Carolina this evening and tonight,
with tropical storm conditions spreading onshore in the next few
hours.

Widespread tropical-storm-conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area from coastal North Carolina to the
mid-Atlantic states, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay
region, tonight and Tuesday, with wind gusts to hurricane force
possible. These winds could cause tree damage and power outages.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New
England Tuesday afternoon and northern New England Tuesday night
and early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.

Eastern New York and western New England from Connecticut to New
Hampshire: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum totals 6 inches.

Western and northern Maine: 1 to 3 inches.

Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias, will
result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through
Wednesday. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible
across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic.
Quick-responding rivers in Northeast will also be susceptible to
minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible near northeastern South
Carolina coastal areas by early this evening, before spreading
across eastern North Carolina tonight into Tuesday morning. A couple
of tornadoes will be possible on Tuesday from eastern Virginia
northeastward into southern New England.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-08-03 20:43


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 032040
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
2100 UTC MON AUG 03 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO
STONINGTON MAINE.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF SAVANNAH RIVER HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS
* OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO STONINGTON MAINE
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* CHESAPEAKE BAY
* TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER
* DELAWARE BAY
* LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND
* MARTHA'S VINEYARD...NANTUCKET...AND BLOCK ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF STONINGTON TO EASTPORT MAINE

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC
AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 79.4W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 90SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 79.4W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 79.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 34.7N 78.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 39.3N 75.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 70 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 44.5N 71.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 48.8N 68.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 52.0N 67.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 54.3N 63.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 79.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 04/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-08-03 18:01


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 031758 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 26A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

Corrected to remove watches and warnings changes

...ISAIAS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT AS A HURRICANE...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 80.0W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers
* Oregon Inlet North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Oregon Inlet North Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Surf City North Carolina to the Mouth of the Merrimack
River
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Merrimack River to Eastport Maine

Interests elsewhere along the northeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 80.0
West. Isaias is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue this afternoon. A turn
toward the north-northeast along with a slight increase in forward
speed is expected by early this evening, followed by a faster motion
tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias
will pass well east of the Georgia coast through this afternoon.
The center of Isaias will then approach the coasts of northeastern
South Carolina and southern North Carolina within the hurricane
warning area this evening. The center will then move inland over
eastern North Carolina tonight, and move along the coast of the
mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday and into the northeastern United
States Tuesday night.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather
radars indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110
km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast this
afternoon or early evening, and Isaias is expected to regain
hurricane strength just before the cyclone reaches the coast of
northeastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina tonight. Only
slow weakening is anticipated after Isaias makes landfall in the
Carolinas and moves across the U.S. mid-Atlantic region tonight and
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. During the past hour, a wind gust to 40 mph (65
km/h) occurred at Folly Island Pier, South Carolina, and at COMRP
buoy 41033 located just offshore Fripp Island, South Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent reports from
the aircraft is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft

Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

Cape Fear NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border including Pamlico
Sound, Albemarle Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...2-4 ft

Altamaha Sound GA to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft

North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Martha's Vineyard
including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, Delaware Bay,
Long Island Sound, Block Island Sound, Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, and Vineyard Sound?-?1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in South and North Carolina this evening through
tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today.

Widespread tropical-storm-conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area from coastal North Carolina to the
mid-Atlantic states tonight and Tuesday, with wind gusts to
hurricane force possible. These winds could cause tree damage and
power outages.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New
England late Tuesday and are possible along the northern New
England coast Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, isolated
maximum totals 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias will result in flash and urban flooding,
some of which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas and the
mid-Atlantic, through Tuesday night near the path of Isaias up the
East Coast of the United States. Widespread minor to moderate river
flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and the
mid-Atlantic. Additionally, quick-responding rivers in the southern
Appalachians and Northeast will be susceptible to minor river
flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible over coastal South
Carolina beginning this evening, spreading across eastern North
Carolina tonight into Tuesday morning. A couple tornadoes will be
possible on Tuesday from eastern Virginia northeastward into
southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-08-03 17:55


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 031752
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

...ISAIAS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT AS A HURRICANE...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 80.0W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for portions of the Pamlico
and Albemarle Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers, and
for the North Carolina Outer Banks form Oregon Inlet to the North
Carolina/Virginia border.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to the mouth
of the Merrimack River, including Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and
Block Island.

The Tropical Storm Watch for the remainder of the Chesapeake Bay and
the Tidal Potomac River north of Cobb Island has been changed to a
Tropical Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward to Eastport
Maine.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Altamaha
Sound.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers
* Oregon Inlet North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Oregon Inlet North Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Surf City North Carolina to the Mouth of the Merrimack
River
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Merrimack River to Eastport Maine

Interests elsewhere along the northeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 80.0
West. Isaias is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue this afternoon. A turn
toward the north-northeast along with a slight increase in forward
speed is expected by early this evening, followed by a faster
motion tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Isaias will pass well east of the Georgia coast through this
afternoon. The center of Isaias will then approach the coasts of
northeastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina within the
hurricane warning area this evening. The center will then move
inland over eastern North Carolina tonight, and move along the coast
of the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday and into the northeastern
United States Tuesday night.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather
radars indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph
(110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast this
afternoon or early evening, and Isaias is expected to regain
hurricane strength just before the cyclone reaches the coast of
northeastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina tonight. Only
slow weakening is anticipated after Isaias makes landfall in the
Carolinas and moves across the U.S. mid-Atlantic region tonight and
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. During the past hour, a wind gust to 40 mph (65
km/h) occurred at Folly Island Pier, South Carolina, and at COMRP
buoy 41033 located just offshore Fripp Island, South Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent reports from
the aircraft is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft

Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

Cape Fear NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border including Pamlico
Sound, Albemarle Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...2-4 ft

Altamaha Sound GA to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft

North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Martha's Vineyard
including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, Delaware Bay,
Long Island Sound, Block Island Sound, Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, and Vineyard Sound?-?1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in South and North Carolina this evening through
tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today.

Widespread tropical-storm-conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area from coastal North Carolina to the
mid-Atlantic states tonight and Tuesday, with wind gusts to
hurricane force possible. These winds could cause tree damage and
power outages.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New
England late Tuesday and are possible along the northern New
England coast Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, isolated
maximum totals 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias will result in flash and urban flooding,
some of which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas and the
mid-Atlantic, through Tuesday night near the path of Isaias up the
East Coast of the United States. Widespread minor to moderate river
flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and the
mid-Atlantic. Additionally, quick-responding rivers in the southern
Appalachians and Northeast will be susceptible to minor river
flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible over coastal South
Carolina beginning this evening, spreading across eastern North
Carolina tonight into Tuesday morning. A couple tornadoes will be
possible on Tuesday from eastern Virginia northeastward into
southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-08-03 16:08


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 031606

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 03.08.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.3N 67.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.08.2020 0 21.3N 67.1W 1016 20
0000UTC 04.08.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 30.0N 80.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.08.2020 0 30.0N 80.2W 999 44
0000UTC 04.08.2020 12 32.6N 78.8W 990 56
1200UTC 04.08.2020 24 36.9N 76.7W 982 63
0000UTC 05.08.2020 36 42.2N 72.7W 985 50
1200UTC 05.08.2020 48 46.8N 69.0W 999 31
0000UTC 06.08.2020 60 49.9N 64.9W 1002 32
1200UTC 06.08.2020 72 51.8N 59.6W 1003 28
0000UTC 07.08.2020 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 36.0N 44.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.08.2020 12 35.9N 43.8W 1015 30
1200UTC 04.08.2020 24 35.8N 42.2W 1015 24
0000UTC 05.08.2020 36 36.0N 40.6W 1016 21
1200UTC 05.08.2020 48 35.5N 38.7W 1014 22
0000UTC 06.08.2020 60 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 031606

>

2020-08-03 14:58


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 031457
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

Isaias continues to undergo strong bursting and then weakening
convective phases, with the cyclone currently in the latter mode.
Satellite and radar data indicate that Isaias' convective
organization has become a little disheveled since the previous
advisory, but this is to be expected since the tropical cyclone
has been undergoing bursting periods about every 8 hours or so
beginning overnight around 0600-0900Z. Thus, the system is due for
another re-organization phase shortly if it holds true to form.
That may already be underway based on recent radar and recon data
showing a slight eastward shift in the center position. The highest
700-mb flight-level wind observed has been 63 kt, which reduces to
about a 57-kt surface wind. Jacksonville Doppler radar velocities
north and north-northwest of the center have been around 60 kt at
9,000 ft, which equals about 54 kt surface winds. The initial
intensity will be held at 60 kt, perhaps a little generously, for
this advisory despite the recent rise in the central pressure to
around 998 mb.

Isaias is still moving northward but a little faster at 360/11 kt.
The track forecast reasoning remains essentially the same as the
previous few advisories, with Isaias expected to gradually turn
toward the north-northeast later today and begin to accelerate by
this evening. The latest NHC model guidance is more tightly packed
about the previous advisory track, so only minor tweaks were
required. The new NHC track forecast lies very close to a blend of
the multi-model consensus aids TVCA, GFEX, TVCX, and NOAA-HCCA.

Current westerly vertical wind shear of 20-25 kt is expected to
decrease somewhat during the next 12 h and also become more
southwesterly, which will be in better alignment with Isaias'
forward motion vector. The decrease in the shear should result in
less tilt to the cyclone, allowing Isaias to strengthen and regain
hurricane status just before making landfall, and most of the
intensity guidance shows a 60-65 kt system at that time. After
landfall, Isaias is forecast to only slowly weaken due to
interaction with an unusually strong winter-type jetstream that will
be possessing winds of 100-120 kt. Expected strong baroclinic
forcing will keep Isaias' circulation intact and also produce very
strong wind gusts along the Mid-Atlantic states tomorrow. As a
result, the gust factors at 24-48 h have been increased above the
standard 20 percent in the Forecast/Advisory (TCMAT4). The cyclone
is forecast to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low over Canada
in 3-4 days.

Key Messages:

1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways of
northeastern South Carolina and the North Carolina coast in the
Storm Surge Warning area. Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Isaias is forecast to regain hurricane strength before it reaches
the coast of northeastern South Carolina and southern North
Carolina, and hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane
Warning area by this evening. Preparations should be rushed to
completion.

3. Isaias is expected to bring widespread sustained tropical storm
force winds and wind gusts to hurricane force to the mid-Atlantic
coast Tuesday, which could cause tree damage and power outages.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New England
on late Tuesday and are possible along the northern New England
coast Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

4. Heavy rainfall will result in flash and urban flooding, some of
which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas and the
mid-Atlantic, through Tuesday night near the path of Isaias up the
East Coast of the United States. Widespread minor to moderate river
flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and the
Mid-Atlantic.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 30.7N 80.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 33.1N 79.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 37.2N 77.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/0000Z 42.0N 73.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/1200Z 46.7N 70.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 06/0000Z 50.2N 67.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 06/1200Z 53.5N 64.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-08-03 14:54


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 031452
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

...ISAIAS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT AS A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.7N 80.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for portions of the Pamlico
and Albemarle Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers, and
for the North Carolina Outer Banks form Oregon Inlet to the North
Carolina/Virginia border.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to the mouth
of the Merrimack River, including Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and
Block Island.

The Tropical Storm Watch for the remainder of the Chesapeake Bay and
the Tidal Potomac River north of Cobb Island has been changed to a
Tropical Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward to Eastport
Maine.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Altamaha
Sound.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers
* Oregon Inlet North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Oregon Inlet North Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Surf City North Carolina to the Mouth of the Merrimack
River
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Merrimack River to Eastport Maine

Interests elsewhere along the northeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars near latitude 30.7 North, longitude 80.1
West. Isaias is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the
north-northeast along with an increase in forward speed is expected
by this late afternoon or early evening, followed by a faster
northeastward motion tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track,
the center of Isaias will pass well east of the Georgia coast
through this afternoon. The center of Isaias will then approach the
coasts of northeastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina
within the hurricane warning area this evening. The center will
then move inland over eastern North Carolina tonight, and move along
the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday and into the
northeastern United States Tuesday night.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather
radars indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph
(110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast this
afternoon, and Isaias is expected to regain hurricane strength just
before it reaches the coast of northeastern South Carolina or
southern North Carolina tonight. Only slow weakening is anticipated
after Isaias makes landfall in the Carolinas and moves across the
U.S. mid-Atlantic region tonight and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from the
aircraft is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft
Cape Fear NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border including
Pamlico Sound, Albemarle Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...2-4 ft
Altamaha Sound GA to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft
North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Martha's Vineyard
including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, and Delaware
Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in South and North Carolina this evening through
tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today.

Widespread tropical-storm-conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area from coastal North Carolina to the
mid-Atlantic states tonight and Tuesday, with wind gusts to
hurricane force possible. These winds could cause tree damage and
power outages.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New
England late Tuesday and are possible along the northern New
England coast Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, isolated
maximum totals 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias will result in flash and urban flooding,
some of which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas and the
mid-Atlantic, through Tuesday night near the path of Isaias up the
East Coast of the United States. Widespread minor to moderate river
flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and the
mid-Atlantic. Additionally, quick-responding rivers in the southern
Appalachians and Northeast will be susceptible to minor river
flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible over coastal South
Carolina beginning this evening, spreading across eastern North
Carolina tonight into Tuesday morning. A couple tornadoes will be
possible on Tuesday from eastern Virginia northeastward into
southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-08-03 14:54


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 031451
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
1500 UTC MON AUG 03 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS...
AND FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS FORM OREGON INLET TO THE
NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE MOUTH
OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD...NANTUCKET...
AND BLOCK ISLAND.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER NORTH OF COBB ISLAND HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO EASTPORT
MAINE.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF ALTAMAHA
SOUND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS, INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS
* OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK
RIVER
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* CHESAPEAKE BAY
* TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER
* DELAWARE BAY
* LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND
* MARTHA'S VINEYARD...NANTUCKET...AND BLOCK ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC
AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 80.1W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......100NE 110SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 80.1W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 80.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 33.1N 79.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 37.2N 77.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 70 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 42.0N 73.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 46.7N 70.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 170SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 50.2N 67.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 53.5N 64.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.7N 80.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 03/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-08-03 11:55


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 031152
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

...ISAIAS PASSING WELL OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 80.1W
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM ESE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to South Santee River
South Carolina
* North of Surf City North Carolina to west of Watch Hill Rhode
Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach
* Tidal Potomac River south of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Stonington, Maine
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

Interests elsewhere along the northeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 80.1
West. Isaias is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A
turn toward the north and north-northeast along with an increase in
forward speed is expected later today and Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Isaias will pass well east of the Georgia coast
through this morning. The center of Isaias will then approach the
coast of northeastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina
within the hurricane warning area later today. The center will then
move inland over eastern North Carolina tonight, and move along the
coast of the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday and into the
northeastern United States by Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is anticipated today, and Isaias is
forecast to regain hurricane strength before it reaches the coast of
northeastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina tonight. Slow
weakening is forecast after Isaias makes landfall in the Carolinas
and moves across the U.S. mid-Atlantic region tonight and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. During the past hour a wind gust to 40 mph (65
km/h) was observed at the St, Augustine Pier, Florida, and a
sustained wind of 34 mph (55 km/h) and a gust to 40 mph (65 km/h)
were measured by a Weatherflow station at the Jacksonville Beach
Pier, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft
Cape Fear NC to Cape Hatteras NC including Pamlico Sound, Neuse and
Pamlico Rivers...2-4 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft
North of Cape Hatteras NC to Cape May NJ including Albemarle Sound,
Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, and Delaware Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in South and North Carolina this evening through
tonight.

Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the Tropical
Storm Warning area from Florida to southern New England through
Tuesday afternoon.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area in New England beginning late Tuesday.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected
along and near the track of Isaias:

Northwest Bahamas: Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
12 inches.

Eastern Florida and coastal Georgia: Up to an additional 1 to 2
inches.

Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, isolated
maximum totals 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall will result in flash and urban flooding, some of
which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas and the
mid-Atlantic, through midweek along and near the path of Isaias
across the East Coast of the United States. Widespread minor to
moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas
and the mid-Atlantic. Additionally, quick-responding rivers in the
southern Appalachians and Northeast will be susceptible to minor
river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible over coastal South
Carolina beginning this evening, spreading across eastern North
Carolina tonight into Tuesday morning. A couple tornadoes will be
possible on Tuesday from eastern Virginia northeastward into
southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-08-03 08:58


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 030856
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

Isaias continues to produce an area of vigorous convection near and
to the northeast of its low-level center. Overnight radar data from
Melbourne and Jacksonville have shown a transient mid-level eye
feature that is located northeast of the low-level center. The
earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew near that
feature before departing the storm and found 700-mb flight-level
winds of 71 kt, with the highest SFMR winds still around 60 kt,
which is the basis for the initial wind speed for this advisory.
An Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be
investigating Isaias within the next several hours.

The vertical wind shear that has been plaguing Isaias is forecast
to abate slightly today as the storm turns north-northeastward. All
of the intensity models shows some slight strengthening during the
next 12 hours, and the global models also indicate some deepening.
As a result, the updated NHC intensity forecast calls for Isaias to
regain hurricane status before the system moves over the coast of
the Carolinas. The new intensity forecast has necessitated
the issuance of a hurricane warning for a portion of the coasts of
northern South Carolina and southern North Carolina. After
landfall, Isaias is forecast to gradually weaken, but given the fast
forward motion of the storm, strong winds are expected to spread
northward along the coast of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast United
States. The cyclone is forecast to be absorbed by a larger
extratropical low over Canada in 3-4 days.

Isaias is moving northward or 355/8 kt. The track forecast
reasoning remains the same as before. The tropical storm is
expected to accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward ahead
of a large mid-level trough over the eastern United States during
the next couple of days. The dynamical models are in good agreement
except for some slight differences in the forward speed of Isaias.
The NHC track forecast is near the multi-model consensus aids,
which have once again trended slightly faster.


Key Messages:

1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways of
northeastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina.
Life-threatening storm surge is possible along the North Carolina
coast from Cape Fear to Duck. Residents in these areas should
follow advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Isaias is forecast to regain hurricane strength before it
reaches the coast of northeastern South Carolina and southern
North Carolina, and hurricane conditions are expected in the
Hurricane Warning by this evening. Preparations should be rushed to
completion.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward
within the Tropical Storm Warning area from Florida to portions of
southern New England through Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are possible across other portions of New England within
the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Wednesday. Additional
watches or warnings may be required later today.

4. Heavy rainfall will result in flash and urban flooding, some of
which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas and the
mid-Atlantic, through midweek along and near the path of Isaias
across the East Coast of the United States. Widespread minor
to moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the
Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 29.7N 79.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 31.3N 79.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 34.8N 78.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/1800Z 39.4N 75.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0600Z 44.4N 71.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/1800Z 48.6N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 06/0600Z 52.0N 65.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg

>

2020-08-03 08:58


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 030856
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

...ISAIAS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF SOUTH AND
NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 79.9W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ESE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from South Santee River South
Carolina to Surf City North Carolina.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to west
of Watch Hill Rhode Island, including the Tidal Potomac south of
Cobb Island, Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach, Delaware Bay,
Long Island, and Long Island sound.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward to Stonington,
Maine, including Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of the
Flagler/Volusia County Line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to South Santee River
South Carolina
* North of Surf City North Carolina to west of Watch Hill Rhode
Island
* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach
* Tidal Potomac River south of Cobb Island
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Stonington, Maine
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island

Interests elsewhere along the northeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 79.9 West. Isaias is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward
the north and north-northeast along with an increase in forward
speed is expected later today and Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Isaias will pass well east of the Georgia
coast through this morning. The center of Isaias will then
approach the coast of northeastern South Carolina and southern
North Carolina within the hurricane warning area later today. The
center will then move inland over eastern North Carolina tonight and
move along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday and into
the northeastern United States by Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is anticipated today, and Isaias is
forecast to regain hurricane strength before it reaches the coast
of northeastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina tonight.
Slow weakening is forecast after Isaias makes landfall in the
Carolinas and moves across the U.S. mid-Atlantic region tonight
and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft
Cape Fear NC to Cape Hatteras NC including Pamlico Sound, Neuse and
Pamlico Rivers...2-4 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft
North of Cape Hatteras NC to Cape May NJ including Albemarle Sound,
Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, and Delaware Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in South and North Carolina this evening through
tonight.

Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the Tropical
Storm Warning area from Florida to southern New England through
Tuesday afternoon.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area in New England beginning late Tuesday.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected
along and near the track of Isaias:

Northwest Bahamas: Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
12 inches.

Eastern Florida and coastal Georgia: Up to an additional 1 to 2
inches.

Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, isolated
maximum totals 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall will result in flash and urban flooding, some of
which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas and the
mid-Atlantic, through midweek along and near the path of Isaias
across the East Coast of the United States. Widespread minor to
moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas
and the mid-Atlantic. Additionally, quick-responding rivers in the
southern Appalachians and Northeast will be susceptible to minor
river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible over coastal South
Carolina beginning this evening, spreading across eastern North
Carolina tonight into Tuesday morning. A couple tornadoes will be
possible on Tuesday from eastern Virginia northeastward into
southern New England.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg

>

2020-08-03 08:58


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 030855
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
0900 UTC MON AUG 03 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO WEST
OF WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF
COBB ISLAND...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH...DELAWARE BAY...
LONG ISLAND...AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO
STONINGTON...
MAINE...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD...NANTUCKET...AND BLOCK ISLAND.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE
FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO WEST OF WATCH HILL RHODE
ISLAND
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH
* TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND
* DELAWARE BAY
* LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO STONINGTON...MAINE
* MARTHA'S VINEYARD...NANTUCKET...AND BLOCK ISLAND

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A
LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 79.9W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......100NE 110SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 45SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 79.9W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 79.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 31.3N 79.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 34.8N 78.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 39.4N 75.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 44.4N 71.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 48.6N 68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 52.0N 65.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N 79.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 03/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-08-03 05:54


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 030552
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020

...ISAIAS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES
THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 79.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued along the
east coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida to Fenwick Island Delaware
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay southward from Smith Point

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Fenwick Island Delaware northward to Watch Hill Rhode Island
* Chesapeake Bay north of Smith Point
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound

Interests elsewhere along the northeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required today.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 79.8 West. Isaias is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue this morning. A turn toward
the north and north-northeast along with an increase in forward
speed is anticipated later today and Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Isaias will pass just to the east of the
Florida east coast through this morning. The center of Isaias will
then move offshore of the coast of Georgia and southern South
Carolina later today, move inland over eastern South Carolina or
southern North Carolina tonight and move along the coast of the
mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are possible during the next
36 hours, but Isaias is expected to be a strong tropical storm when
it reaches the coast of eastern South Carolina or southern North
Carolina tonight. Slow weakening is forecast after Isaias makes
landfall in the Carolinas and moves across the U.S. mid-Atlantic
region tonight and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 41010, located about 130 miles (210 km)
east-northeast of Cape Canaveral, reported sustained winds of 54 mph
(86 km/h) with a wind gust to 63 mph (101 km/h) within the past few
hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft
Sebastian Inlet FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft
North of Cape Fear NC to Kiptopeke VA including Pamlico Sound,
Albemarle Sound, Neuse River, Pamlico River, Chesapeake Bay, and
the Tidal Potomac River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in South
and North Carolina tonight and early Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the Tropical
Storm Warning area from Florida to North Carolina through tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area beginning on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Northwest Bahamas: Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
12 inches.

Eastern Florida: Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 4
inches.

Coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches.

Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, isolated
maximum totals 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially
life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas through
tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic, is expected through
midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of
the United States. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is
possible across portions of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic.
Additionally, quick-responding rivers in the southern Appalachians
and Northeast will be susceptible to minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible over coastal South
Carolina during the afternoon and evening today, and across
eastern North Carolina this evening and tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg

>

2020-08-03 02:45


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 030243
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

Isais has not become better organized on satellite and radar imagery
at this time. The cyclone continues to produce vigorous deep
convection but this convection continues to be displaced to the
northeast of the center, and convective banding features are
ill-defined. Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations show that the
central pressure has not fallen since earlier today, and
flight-level and SFMR-observed surface wind measurements from the
aircraft indicate that the intensity remains near 60 kt. Although
Isais will be moving through an environment of fairly strong
southwesterly shear during the next day or so, it will also be
traversing the warm waters of the Gulf Stream with its high oceanic
heat content. The latter factor could result in the system becoming
a hurricane near landfall. The official forecast is close to the
intensity consensus, which keeps Isaias just below hurricane
strength.

It should be emphasized that there is little difference between a
strong tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane, in terms of
impacts.

After landfall, the interaction with land and strong shear should
result in steady weakening. Based on the global models, the
cyclone is likely to become an extratropical cyclone after it moves
into Canada and dissipate over the north Atlantic shortly
thereafter.

The motion continues to be slightly west of due north or 345/8 kt.
There has been no significant change to the track forecast
reasoning. Over the next couple of days, Isaias is expected to
accelerate north-northeastward on the east side of a large 500 mb
trough over the eastern United States and then turn northeastward
in 3 to 4 days as it moves through the mid-latitude westerlies.
The official track forecast is very close to the previous one and
similar to the latest corrected dynamical model consensus. This is
between the GFS, which shows a slightly faster motion and the ECMWF,
which is slightly slower.


Key Messages:

1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of
2 to 4 feet above ground level from Edisto Beach South Carolina to
Cape Fear North Carolina along the immediate coastline and adjacent
waterways. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along the
North Carolina coast from Cape Fear to Duck. Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the
Tropical Storm Warning area from Florida to Maryland through
early Tuesday. Isaias is expected to be near hurricane strength when
it reaches the coast of northern South Carolina and southern North
Carolina Monday night, and strong tropical storm force winds are
likely with hurricane conditions possible in the Hurricane Watch
area.

3. Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially
life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas through
tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic, is expected through
midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of
the United States. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is
possible across portions of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic.

4. Tropical storm conditions are forecast to spread northward
across the remainder of the U.S east coast on Tuesday and early
Wednesday. A tropical storm watch is in effect through Long Island
Sound and additional watches and warnings will likely be issued on
Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 28.5N 79.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 29.7N 80.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 32.2N 79.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 35.9N 77.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0000Z 40.5N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/1200Z 45.5N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/0000Z 50.0N 65.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/0000Z 55.5N 56.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-08-03 02:45


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 030242
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
0300 UTC MON AUG 03 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO FENWICK
ISLAND DELAWARE...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA TO FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTHWARD FROM SMITH POINT

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE NORTHWARD TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND
* CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF SMITH POINT
* TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER
* DELAWARE BAY
* LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A
LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 79.8W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 79.8W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 79.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 29.7N 80.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 32.2N 79.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 35.9N 77.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 40.5N 74.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 45.5N 70.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 130SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 50.0N 65.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 55.5N 56.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 79.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 03/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-08-03 02:44


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 030242
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

...ISAIAS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES
THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 79.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Fenwick
Island Delaware, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. A
Tropical Storm Warning has also been issued for the Chesapeake Bay
from Smith Point southward.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Fenwick Island Delaware
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay southward from Smith Point

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Fenwick Island Delaware northward to Watch Hill Rhode Island
* Chesapeake Bay north of Smith Point
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound

Interests elsewhere along the northeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required tonight or early Monday.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 28.5
North, longitude 79.8 West. Isaias is moving toward the
north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north and
north-northeast along with an increase in forward speed is
anticipated on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Isaias will pass just to the east of the Florida east
coast through tonight. The center of Isaias will then move offshore
of the coast of Georgia and southern South Carolina on Monday, move
inland over eastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina Monday
night and move along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are possible during the next
36 hours, but Isaias is expected to be a strong tropical storm when
it reaches the coast of eastern South Carolina or southern North
Carolina Monday night. Slow weakening is forecast after Isaias
makes landfall in the Carolinas and moves across the U.S.
mid-Atlantic region late Monday and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A 51 mph (82 km/h) wind gust was recently
measured at NOAA buoy 41009, just off the coast of Cape Canaveral.
NOAA buoy 41010, located about 130 miles (210 km) east-northeast of
Cape Canaveral reported sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) with a
wind gust to 63 mph (101 km/h) within the past couple of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft
Sebastian Inlet FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft
North of Cape Fear NC to Kiptopeke VA including Pamlico Sound,
Albemarle Sound, Neuse River, Pamlico River, Chesapeake Bay, and
the Tidal Potomac River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in South
and North Carolina Monday night and early Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the Tropical
Storm Warning area from Florida to North Carolina through Monday
night.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area beginning on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Northwest Bahamas: Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
12 inches.

Eastern Florida: Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 4
inches.

Coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches.

Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, isolated
maximum totals 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially
life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas through
tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic, is expected through
midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of
the United States. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is
possible across portions of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic.
Additionally, quick-responding rivers in the southern Appalachians
and Northeast will be susceptible to minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible over coastal South
Carolina during the afternoon and evening on Monday, and across
eastern North Carolina Monday evening and overnight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-08-02 23:44


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 022342
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

...ISAIAS CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 79.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Watch Hill Rhode Island
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound

Interests elsewhere along the northeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required tonight or early Monday.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 28.2
North, longitude 79.7 West. Isaias is moving toward the
north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north and
north-northeast along with an increase in forward speed is
anticipated on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Isaias will pass just to the east of the Florida east
coast through tonight. The center of Isaias will then move offshore
of the coast of Georgia and southern South Carolina on Monday, move
inland over eastern South Carolina or southern North Carolina Monday
night and move along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in strength will be possible during the
next 36 hours, but Isaias is expected to be a strong tropical storm
when it reaches the coast of eastern South Carolina or southern
North Carolina Monday night. Slow weakening is forecast after
Isaias makes landfall in the Carolinas and moves across the U.S.
mid-Atlantic region late Monday and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 41009, located just off the coast of
Cape Canaveral, recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72
km/h) and a gust of 54 mph (87 km/h). A Florida Institute of
Technology observing station at Sebastien Inlet measured a sustained
wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust of 48 mph (78 km/h) during the
past couple of hours.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft
Sebastian Inlet FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft
North of Cape Fear NC to Kiptopeke VA including Pamlico Sound,
Albemarle Sound, Neuse River, Pamlico River, Chesapeake Bay, and
the Tidal Potomac River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in South
and North Carolina Monday night and early Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the Tropical
Storm Warning area from Florida to North Carolina through Monday
night.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area beginning on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Northwest Bahamas: Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
12 inches.

Eastern Florida: Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
4 inches.

Coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches.

Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, isolated
maximum totals 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially
life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwestern Bahamas through
tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic, is expected through
midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of
the United States. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river
flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and the
Mid-Atlantic.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible over coastal South
Carolina during the afternoon and evening on Monday, and across
eastern North Carolina Monday evening and overnight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-08-02 20:59


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 022057
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

The earlier intense recent burst has waned since this morning, but
the large convective cell has persisted. At the peak of the activity
around 1500Z, several small patches of Doppler velocities of 90-96
kt were co-located with the pronounced mid-level circulation that
was evident in the Melbourne radar reflectivity data. However,
these intense wind speed values were short-lived for only about 20
minutes and, thus, were not considered to representative of Isaias'
tangential wind field. Since that time, the cyclone has become more
steady state with Doppler radar and Air Force Reserve aircraft data
indicating surface winds in the 56-63 kt range. Therefore, the
initial intensity of 60 kt is an average of these values.

Radar and aircraft fixes indicate that Isaias is still moving
toward the north-northwest or 345/08 kt. The latest model guidance
remains in excellent agreement on Isaias moving north-northwestward
through a break in the subtropical ridge tonight and turning
northward by Monday morning, all the while remaining offshore of the
coast from east-central Florida to Georgia. By Monday night, Isaias
is forecast to turn northeastward and accelerate toward the
Carolinas, reaching the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday and New
England by early Wednesday. The new NHC forecast track during the
first 24 hours lies a little east of the previous one, but is
essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track
thereafter, and lies close to the various consensus models, which
are lightly packed around the previous NHC foreast.

Isaias will continue to move slowly over the warm Gulfstream waters
for the next 36 h or so. Despite unfavorable vertical shear
conditions of around 25 kt, Isaias is expected to maintain its
current intensity until landfall, and could restrengthen to
hurricane status in 24-36 h when the vertical shear vector is
forecast to switch from westerly to southwesterly which would align
the shear along the direction of storm motion. Some baroclinic
interaction is expected on days 2-3 when Isaias will move into the
right-rear quadrant of an anticyclonically curved jet streak, which
is expected to hold the intensity a little above what would normally
be expected for a post-landfall tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the HFIP corrected consensus model and the
IVCN intensity consensus model, which agree well with the GFS and
ECMWF model intensity forecasts.

Key Messages:

1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of
2 to 4 feet above ground level from Edisto Beach South Carolina to
Cape Fear North Carolina along the immediate coastline and adjacent
waterways. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along the
North Carolina coast from Cape Fear to Duck. Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.

2. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the
Tropical Storm Warning area from Florida to North Carolina through
Monday night. Isaias is expected to be near hurricane strength when
it reaches the coast of northern South Carolina and southern North
Carolina Monday night, and strong tropical storm force winds are
likely with hurricane conditions possible in the Hurricane Watch
area.

3. Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially
life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas through
tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic, are expected through
midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the U.S. East
Coast. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is
possible across portions of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic.

4. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the U.S. mid-Atlantic
coast, including the Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, and Long Island
Sound, as tropical storm force winds are possible in these areas on
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be issued tonight and Monday as Isaias is expected to move
northward near or over the mid-Atlantic and New England states
Tuesday and Wednesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 27.8N 79.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 29.0N 80.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 30.9N 79.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 33.7N 78.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 38.1N 75.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/0600Z 42.5N 72.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/1800Z 46.3N 68.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/1800Z 54.2N 58.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-08-02 20:47


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 022045
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

...ISAIAS STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...
...HURRICANE WATCH AND STORM SURGE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 79.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Edisto Beach South Carolina
to Cape Fear North Carolina.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Cape Fear to Duck North
Carolina, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from South Santee River South
Carolina to Surf City North Carolina.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Ocracoke
Inlet North Carolina.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward to Watch Hill
Rhode Island, including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac
River, Delaware Bay, Long Island and Long Island Sound.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Sebastian
Inlet Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Watch Hill Rhode Island
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound

Interests elsewhere along the northeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required tonight or early Monday.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 79.8
West. Isaias is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through
tonight. A turn toward the north and north-northeast along with an
increase in forward speed is anticipated on Monday and Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Isaias will pass just to the east
of the Florida east coast through tonight. The center of Isaias
will move offshore of the coast of Georgia and southern South
Carolina on Monday, move inland over eastern North Carolina
Monday night and move along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on
Tuesday.

Data from the aircraft and the Melbourne, Florida, Doppler radar
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph
(110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength will be
possible during the next 36 hours, but Isaias is expected
to be a strong tropical storm when it reaches the coast of
northern South Carolina and southern North Carolina Monday night.
Slow weakening is forecast after Isaias makes landfall in the
Carolinas and moves across the U.S. mid-Atlantic region late Monday
and Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A weather station at Sebastian Inlet, Florida,
recently measured a wind gust of 49 mph (80 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on reports from the
reconnaissance aircraft is estimated to be 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft
Sebastian Inlet FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft
North of Cape Fear NC to Kiptopeke VA including Pamlico Sound,
Albemarle Sound, Neuse River, Pamlico River, Chesapeake Bay, and
the Tidal Potomac River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are be possible in the watch area in
South and North Carolina Monday night and early Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the Tropical
Storm Warning area from Florida to North Carolina through Monday
night.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area beginning on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Northwest Bahamas: Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
12 inches.

Eastern Florida: Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
4 inches.

Coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches.

Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, isolated
maximum totals 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially
life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwestern Bahamas through
tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic, is expected through
midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of
the United States. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river
flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and the
Mid-Atlantic.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
the Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will
spread northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple
of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible over coastal South
Carolina during the afternoon and evening on Monday, and across
eastern North Carolina Monday evening and overnight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-08-02 20:46


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 022044
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
2100 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH
CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO OCRACOKE
INLET NORTH CAROLINA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO WATCH HILL
RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE TIDAL POTOMAC
RIVER...DELAWARE BAY...LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA TO OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* CHESAPEAKE BAY
* TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER
* DELAWARE BAY
* LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A
LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 79.8W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 79.8W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 79.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 29.0N 80.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 30.9N 79.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 33.7N 78.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 38.1N 75.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 42.5N 72.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 46.3N 68.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 54.2N 58.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 79.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 03/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-08-02 17:57


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 021755
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

...ISAIAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 79.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM ESE OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet Florida to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

Interests elsewhere along the mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radar near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 79.7 West.
Isaias is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and
this general motion is expected to continue through Monday morning.
A turn toward the north and north-northeast is anticipated on Monday
and Tuesday with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast
track, the center of Isaias will move near the east coast of Florida
today through late tonight. On Monday and Tuesday, the center of
Isaias will move from offshore the coast of Georgia into the
mid-Atlantic states.

Data from the aircraft and the Melbourne, Florida, Doppler radar
data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100
km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength will be
possible during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. During the past couple of hours, the NOAA C-MAN
station at Settlement Point, Grand Bahama Island, measured a wind
gust of 48 mph (78 km/h), and a weather station at Sebastian Inlet,
Florida measured a wind gust of 46 mph (74 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on reports from the
reconnaissance aircraft is estimated to be 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft
Jupiter Inlet FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward
along the coast of Florida within the warning area through tonight.
These conditions will spread northward along the coasts of Georgia,
South Carolina, and North Carolina within the warning area on Monday
and Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in North
Carolina on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Northwest Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12
inches.

Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Northeast Florida and coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches.

Carolinas and the mid Atlantic: 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 7 inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially
life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas through
tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the coastal Carolinas and Virginia, is expected through midweek
along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of the
United States. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding
is possible across portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
the Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will
spread northward along the U.S. east coast during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: The potential for a couple tornadoes will begin along
coastal South Carolina during the late afternoon and evening on
Monday, spreading across eastern North Carolina on Monday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-08-02 16:03


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 021601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 02.08.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 61.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.08.2020 0 16.4N 61.4W 1014 19
0000UTC 03.08.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 26.7N 79.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.08.2020 0 26.7N 79.2W 1001 47
0000UTC 03.08.2020 12 27.8N 80.3W 999 42
1200UTC 03.08.2020 24 29.1N 80.7W 1000 40
0000UTC 04.08.2020 36 31.1N 80.2W 993 47
1200UTC 04.08.2020 48 34.2N 78.8W 978 50
0000UTC 05.08.2020 60 38.4N 75.5W 985 60
1200UTC 05.08.2020 72 43.4N 70.8W 987 57
0000UTC 06.08.2020 84 48.6N 65.3W 993 42
1200UTC 06.08.2020 96 52.1N 61.3W 997 27
0000UTC 07.08.2020 108 54.8N 57.5W 997 27
1200UTC 07.08.2020 120 54.6N 58.2W 994 27
0000UTC 08.08.2020 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 31.2N 51.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.08.2020 72 31.2N 51.5W 1016 24
0000UTC 06.08.2020 84 31.3N 50.6W 1016 24
1200UTC 06.08.2020 96 30.6N 49.5W 1015 23
0000UTC 07.08.2020 108 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 021601

>

2020-08-02 16:02


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 021601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.08.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 61.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.08.2020 16.4N 61.4W WEAK
00UTC 03.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 26.7N 79.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.08.2020 26.7N 79.2W WEAK
00UTC 03.08.2020 27.8N 80.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2020 29.1N 80.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2020 31.1N 80.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.08.2020 34.2N 78.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.08.2020 38.4N 75.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.08.2020 43.4N 70.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.08.2020 48.6N 65.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.08.2020 52.1N 61.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.08.2020 54.8N 57.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.08.2020 54.6N 58.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 31.2N 51.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.08.2020 31.2N 51.5W WEAK
00UTC 06.08.2020 31.3N 50.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.08.2020 30.6N 49.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 021601

>

2020-08-02 15:01


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 021458
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

Another recent burst of deep convection has recently developed
northeast of the center, which has resulted in Isaias making a
slight northward jog. An impressive mid-level circulation has
developed within the strongest thunderstorm cluster, along with rare
reflectivity values of 55-60 dBZ for a tropical cyclone. The
Melbourne, Florida, Doppler weather radar has been indicating
patches of velocity values of 65-66 kt at around 10,000 ft just
north of the center, which equates to 58-59 kt surface winds. For
now, the intensity will remain at 55 kt since previous convective
bursts have not persisted for more than a couple of hours at best.
Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Isaias later today.

Radar and aircraft fixes indicate that Isaias is now moving toward
the north-northwest or 340/07 kt. A slow north-northwestward motion
should continue for the next 24 hours or so as Isaias moves into a
weakness that has developed in the Bermuda-Azores ridge over north
Florida and off the Georgia coast seen in 02/1200Z upper-air data. A
turn toward the north is forecast to occur by all of the global
models by Monday morning, followed by a faster forward motion toward
the northeast by Monday afternoon and evening when the cyclone will
be influenced by southwesterly steering flow ahead of a strong
eastward-moving mid- to upper-level trough. Continued northeastward
acceleration across the mid-Atlantic and New England states is
expected on days 3 and 4. The global models continue to show little
cross-track difference, but still have significant along-track
differences with the GFS being the fastest and the ECMWF being
the slowest . Since the preponderance of the model guidance is
slower than the GFS solution, the new official forecast track
closely follows the consensus models TVCA and HCCA, and lies near
the previous advisory track after 12 h.

Isaias will remain over warm Gulfstream waters where water
temperatures are near 30 deg C. Despite very unfavorable vertical
shear conditions of 25-30 kt the past couple of days, the cyclone
has managed to hold together, which is an indication that the system
has a deep, well-formed vertical circulation. While some slight
intensification is possible if the shear decreases, the official
forecast calls for the intensity to remain steady until landfall
occurs in the Carolinas in 36 hours or so. Some baroclinic
interaction with the right-rear quadrant of an anticyclonically
curved jet streak is expected to hold the intensity a little above
what would normally be expected for a post-landfall tropical cyclone
in 48-72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the HFIP
corrected consensus model and the IVCN intensity consensus model.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the east
coast of Florida within the warning area through early Monday and
will reach the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and southern North
Carolina within the warning area Monday and early Tuesday.

2. Dangerous storm surge is possible from Edisto Beach South
Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina where water rises of 2 to 4
feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline
and adjacent waterways. A Storm Surge Warning may be needed for a
portion of this area later today, and residents there should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

3. Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially
life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas through
tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the coastal Carolinas and Virginia, is expected through midweek
along and near the path of Isaias along the U.S. East Coast.
Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is possible
across portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.

4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for portions of the North
Carolina coast, where tropical storm conditions are possible on
Tuesday. Additional watches and warnings will likely be issued later
today as Isaias is expected to move northward near or over the
mid-Atlantic and northeast coasts Tuesday and Wednesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 26.9N 79.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 28.0N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 29.6N 80.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 32.2N 79.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 35.7N 77.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/0000Z 40.1N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/1200Z 44.6N 70.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/1200Z 51.7N 63.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-08-02 14:53


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 021450
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
U.S. EAST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 79.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from South Santee River
South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the North Carolina coast
from north of Surf City to Duck, including Pamlico and
Albemarle Sounds.

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Jupiter Inlet Florida and for
Lake Okeechobee has been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Watch for the Florida east coast has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet Florida to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

Interests elsewhere along the mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 26.9 North,
longitude 79.6 West. Isaias is moving toward the north-northwest
near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to
continue through Monday morning. A turn toward the north and
north-northeast is anticipated on Monday and Tuesday with an
increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of
Isaias will move near the east coast of Florida today through late
tonight. On Monday and Tuesday, the center of Isaias will move from
offshore the coast of Georgia into the mid-Atlantic states.

Doppler radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near
65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength
will be possible during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. During the past couple of hours, the NOAA C-MAN
station at Settlement Point, Grand Bahama Island, measured a wind
gust of 64 mph (103 km/h). A wind gust to 62 mph (100 km/h) was
reported at Freeport, Grand Bahama Island. Along the east coast of
Florida, tropical-storm-force wind gusts have been observed from
Juno Beach northward to Port St. Lucie.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft
Jupiter Inlet FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the
Northwestern Bahamas for the next few hours.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward along
the coast of Florida within the warning area through tonight.
These conditions will spread northward along the coasts of
Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina within the warning area
on Monday and Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in North
Carolina on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:

Northwest Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12
inches.

Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Northeast Florida and coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches.

Carolinas and the mid Atlantic: 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 7 inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially
life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas through
tonight. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the coastal Carolinas and Virginia, is expected through midweek
along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of the
United States. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding
is possible across portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
the Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will
spread northward along the U.S. east coast during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: The potential for a couple tornadoes will begin along
coastal South Carolina during the late afternoon and evening on
Monday, spreading across eastern North Carolina on Monday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-08-02 14:52


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 021450
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
1500 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND FOR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET FLORIDA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES
OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 79.6W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 79.6W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 79.5W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 28.0N 80.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 29.6N 80.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 32.2N 79.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 35.7N 77.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 40.1N 74.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 44.6N 70.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 51.7N 63.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 79.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 02/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-08-02 12:00


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 021157
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 79.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM ESE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SSE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for the Northwestern Bahamas has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North
Carolina

Interests elsewhere along the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts of
the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional
watches or warnings may be required later today.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars near near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 79.5
West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
general northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a
north-northwestward motion tonight. A turn toward the north and
north-northeast is anticipated on Monday and Tuesday with an
increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of
Isaias will move near or over the east coast of Florida today
through late tonight. On Monday and Tuesday, the center of Isaias
will move from offshore of the coast of Georgia into the southern
mid-Atlantic states.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicated that the maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100
km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected
during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. During the past couple of hours, a wind gust to 55
mph (89 km/h) was reported at Freeport, Grand Bahama Island, and a
Weatherflow observing site at Junno Beach Pier, Florida, measured a
wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

North Miami Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft
Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft
Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft
Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the
Northwestern Bahamas through this morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward along
the coast of Florida within the warning area through tonight.
These conditions will spread northward along the coasts of Georgia
and South Carolina within the warning area on Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in South
and North Carolina beginning Monday night and Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Northwest Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12
inches.

Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Northeast Florida and coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches.

Carolinas and the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central
Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 7
inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially
life-threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas and flash and urban
flooding along the East Coast of the United States. Minor to
isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the
Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
the Central and Northwest Bahamas and will spread northward along
the east coast of Florida and the southeastern United States coast
during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: The potential for a couple tornadoes will begin along
coastal South Carolina during the late afternoon and evening on
Monday, spreading across eastern North Carolina on Monday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-08-02 08:59


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 020856
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

The burst of deep convection that developed to the northeast of the
center last evening has not resulted in any significant improvement
in the structure of Isaias according to recent reconnaissance
aircraft data and radar imagery. The tropical cyclone is still
being adversely affected by about 25 kt of 850-200 mb vertical wind
shear. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has
provided several center fixes overnight has found peak 850-mb
flight-level winds of 67 kt, and peak believable SFMR winds of 51
kt. These data, along with an earlier ASCAT overpass, indicate
that Isaias' intensity is 55 kt. In addition, both the aircraft
and ASCAT data suggest that the wind field over the western portion
of the circulation is somewhat smaller than previous estimated.

Since Isaias has not shown any signs of re-organizing overnight, it
appears that the window of opportunity for it to re-strengthen is
closing. The SHIPS guidance and global model fields do not show
the shear abating during the next 24-36 hours while Isaias moves
near the Florida coast. As a result, the new NHC intensity forecast
shows little change in strength during this time. Later in the
period, gradual weakening should occur as the storm moves northward
along the east coast of the United States. The NHC intensity
forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus
model and the latest multi-model intensity consensus.

Recent aircraft fixes and radar data show that Isaias is moving
northwestward or 325/8 kt. A slow northwestward to
north-northwestward motion around the western periphery of a
deep-layer ridge centered near Bermuda should take the center of
Isaias very near the east coast of Florida through Monday. After
that, the tropical cyclone should begin to accelerate
north-northeastward to northeastward as a trough slides eastward
into the eastern United States. The dynamical models are tightly
clustered, and the NHC track forecast lies between the typically
reliable GFS and ECMWF models.

The reduction in the initial and predicted intensity of Isaias has
necessitated changes in warnings along the east coast of Florida.
The Hurricane Warning along the east-central coast of Florida has
been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the
northwestern Bahamas through today.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward along
the east coast of Florida within the warning area through early
Monday. These conditions are expected to spread northward along the
coast of Georgia and South Carolina within the warning area on
Monday.

3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast
from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4
feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline
and adjacent waterways. Residents there should follow advice given
by local emergency officials.

4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash flooding across portions of the northwestern Bahamas, and
flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly
drained areas, along the East Coast of the United States. Minor to
isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the
Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic this week.

5. Tropical storm watches are in effect for portions of the coast
of South and North Carolina. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be issued later today as Isaias is expected to move
northward near or over the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts over
the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 26.3N 79.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 27.4N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 28.8N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 30.7N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 33.7N 79.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 04/1800Z 37.8N 76.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/0600Z 42.9N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/0600Z 50.0N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-08-02 08:58


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 020856
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

...ISAIAS CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS NEARING THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 79.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM ENE OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning along the east coast of Florida has been
replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward along the
southeast United States coast to South Santee River South Carolina.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Edisto Beach South
Carolina northward to Cape Fear North Carolina.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward to Surf City,
North Carolina.

The Tropical Storm Warning along the coast of Florida has been
discontinued south of Hallandale Beach.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bimini, the Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North
Carolina

Interests elsewhere along the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts of
the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional
watches or warnings may be required later today.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 79.5 West. Isaias is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general
northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a
north-northwestward motion by tonight. A turn toward the north
and north-northeast is anticipated on Monday and Tuesday with an
increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of
Isaias will move near or over the east coast of Florida today
through late tonight. On Monday and Tuesday, the center of Isaias
will move from offshore of the coast of Georgia into the southern
mid-Atlantic states.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicated that the maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100
km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected
during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

North Miami Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft
Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft
Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft
Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the
Northwestern Bahamas through this morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward along
the coast of Florida within the warning area through tonight.
These conditions will spread northward along the coasts of Georgia
and South Carolina within the warning area on Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in South
and North Carolina beginning Monday night and Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Northwest Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12
inches.

Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Northeast Florida and coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches.

Carolinas and the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central
Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 7
inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially
life-threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas and flash and urban
flooding along the East Coast of the United States. Minor to
isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the
Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
the Central and Northwest Bahamas and will spread northward along
the east coast of Florida and the southeastern United States coast
during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg

>

2020-08-02 08:58


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 020855
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
0900 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SURF CITY...
NORTH CAROLINA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF HALLANDALE BEACH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BIMINI...THE BERRY ISLANDS...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HALLANDALE BEACH FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH
CAROLINA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS OF
THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 79.5W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 79.5W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 79.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 27.4N 80.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 28.8N 80.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 30.7N 80.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 33.7N 79.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 37.8N 76.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 42.9N 72.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 110SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 50.0N 65.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 79.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 02/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-08-02 05:53


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 020551
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
200 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT BEGINNING TO
INVESTIGATE ISAIAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 79.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ESE OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida
* Bimini, the Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee
* Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to South Santee River South
Carolina

Interests elsewhere along the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts of
the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional
watches or warnings may be required later today.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 79.1 West. Isaias is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A general
northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a
north-northwestward motion by tonight. A turn toward the north and
north-northeast is anticipated on Monday and Tuesday with an
increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of
Isaias will approach the southeast coast of Florida this morning
and move near or along the east coast of Florida later today and
tonight. On Monday and Tuesday, the center of Isaias will move
from offshore of the coast of Georgia into the southern
mid-Atlantic states.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some restrengthening is possible today. Slow weakening is
expected to begin tonight and continue through Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A Coastal Marine observing site at Settlement Point
on the western end of Grand Bahama Island recently reported a
sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 48 mph (78 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft
North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as
3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in
the Northwestern Bahamas.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue over
portions of the Northwestern Bahamas through this morning.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the
hurricane warning area in Florida later this morning and will spread
northward through tonight. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength early this morning, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in
South Florida this morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
northeast Florida by tonight, and are possible in the watch
area from northeast Florida to South Carolina on Monday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Northeast Florida and coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches.

Carolinas and the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central
Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 7
inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially
life-threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas and flash and urban
flooding along the East Coast of the United States. Minor river
flooding and isolated moderate river flooding is possible across
portions of the Carolinas and mid Atlantic.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
the Central and Northwest Bahamas and will spread northward along
the east coast of Florida and the southeastern United States coast
during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg

>

2020-08-02 02:58


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 020256
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020

Deep convection has increased this evening in a cluster to the east
and northeast of the aircraft-observed center position. Radar data
suggests a mid-level center or vorticity maximum in that area,
which is between Grand Bahama and Andros Island. Observations from
the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that Isaias has not
restrengthened thus far, but there is still a small window of
opportunity for it to regain hurricane intensity Sunday while
passing over the Gulf Stream waters. Synoptic surveillance data
from the NOAA Gulfstream-IV aircraft indicate that the upper-level
west-southwesterly flow over Isais will begin to increase by late
Sunday. The resulting increase in shear and interaction with land
should cause weakening beyond 24 hours, and the official intensity
forecast is near or above the intensity model consensus.

Assuming that the aforementioned mid-level feature is not the
dominant center of circulation, the aircraft fixes give a motion
estimate of about 310/8 kt. Isais has been moving northwestward
along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high pressure area.
An approaching trough near the Ohio Valley is expected to cause the
tropical cyclone to turn northward within 48 hours. After that,
Isaias should accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward ahead
of the trough, and move near or over the east coast of the United
States. The official track forecast remains close to both the
simple and corrected dynamic model consensus tracks, TVCN and HCCA
respectively.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge will continue in
portions of the northwest Bahamas through Sunday morning.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the Florida
east coast on Sunday with tropical storm conditions expected to
begin late tonight. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast
from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4
feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline
and adjacent waterways. Residents there should follow advice given
by local emergency officials.

4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash flooding in the Bahamas, and flash and urban flooding,
especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas, along the east
coast of the United States. Minor river flooding and isolated
moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas
and mid Atlantic early next week.

5. Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for portions of
the United States East Coast from northeast Florida to South
Carolina. Additional watches and warnings will likely be issued
on Sunday as Isaias is expected to move northward near or over the
southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 25.5N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 26.6N 79.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 28.0N 80.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...ON COAST
36H 03/1200Z 29.7N 80.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 32.0N 80.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 35.3N 78.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/0000Z 39.7N 74.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/0000Z 47.0N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 07/0000Z 51.5N 57.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-08-02 02:56


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 020254
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020

...ISAIAS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 79.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida
* Bimini, the Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee
* Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to South Santee River South
Carolina

Interests elsewhere along the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts of
the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional
watches or warnings may be required tonight or Sunday.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 79.1 West. Isaias is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
for the next day or so, followed by a north-northwestward motion by
late Sunday. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is
anticipated on Monday and Tuesday with an increase in forward speed.
On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will approach the
southeast coast of Florida tonight and early Sunday and move near or
along the east coast of Florida Sunday and Sunday night. On Monday
and Tuesday, the center of Isaias will move from offshore of the
coast of Georgia into the southern mid-Atlantic states.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some restrengthening is possible, and Isaias could regain
hurricane strength early Sunday. Slow weakening is expected to
begin Sunday night and continue through Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A Weatherflow site in Morningside Park in Miami
recently reported a wind gust to 41 mph (66 km/h). An unofficial
observing station on Great Harbour Cay recently reported a wind gust
of 40 mph (64 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft
North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as
3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in
the Northwestern Bahamas.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue over
portions of the Northwestern Bahamas through Sunday morning.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the
hurricane warning area in Florida Sunday morning and will spread
northward through Sunday night. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength later tonight, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning area in South Florida
Sunday morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
northeast Florida by Sunday night, and are possible in the watch
area from northeast Florida to South Carolina on Monday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Northeast Florida and coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches.

Carolinas and the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central
Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 7
inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially
life-threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas and flash and urban
flooding along the East Coast of the United States. Minor river
flooding and isolated moderate river flooding is possible across
portions of the Carolinas and mid Atlantic.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.
These swells will spread along the east coast of Florida and the
southeastern United States coast through Sunday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-08-02 02:56


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 020253
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
0300 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOCA RATON TO THE VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE FLORIDA
* BIMINI...THE BERRY ISLANDS...AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO SOUTH OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS OF
THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 79.1W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 45SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 79.1W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 78.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 26.6N 79.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 28.0N 80.5W...ON COAST
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 29.7N 80.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 32.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 35.3N 78.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 39.7N 74.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 47.0N 66.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 51.5N 57.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 79.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 02/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-08-01 23:43


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 012341
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020

...ISAIAS EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT
WHILE IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 78.9W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Hurricane
Warning for Eleuthera, New Providence, Andros Island, and the
Abacos Islands

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida
* Bimini, the Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee
* Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to South Santee River South
Carolina

Interests elsewhere along the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts of
the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional
watches or warnings may be required tonight or Sunday.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 25.3
North, longitude 78.9 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest
near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general northwestward motion with some
decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or so,
followed by a north-northwestward motion by late Sunday. A turn
toward the north and north-northeast is anticipated on Monday and
Tuesday with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track,
the center of Isaias will approach the southeast coast of Florida
tonight and move near or along the east coast of Florida Sunday and
Sunday night. On Monday and Tuesday, the center of Isaias will move
from offshore of the coast of Georgia into the southern mid-Atlantic
states.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some restrengthening is forecast, and Isaias is expected to
regain hurricane strength later tonight and early Sunday. Slow
weakening is expected to begin Sunday night and continue through
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. Settlement Point, Grand Bahama Island, recently
reported a wind gust of 41 mph (66 km/h). An unofficial observing
station in Ft. Lauderdale Beach recently reported a wind gust of 39
mph (63 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft
North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as
3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in
the Northwestern Bahamas.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue over
portions of the Northwestern Bahamas tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the
hurricane warning area in Florida on Sunday and will spread
northward through Sunday night. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength later tonight, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning area in South Florida
tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
northeast Florida by Sunday night, and are possible in the watch
area from northeast Florida to South Carolina on Monday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Northeast Florida and coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches.

Carolinas and the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central
Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 7
inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially life-
threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas and flash and urban
flooding along the East Coast of the United States. Minor river
flooding and isolated moderate river flooding is possible across
portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.
These swells will spread along the east coast of Florida and the
southeastern United States coast through Sunday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-08-01 20:54


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 012052
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020

The last data received from a previous Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft, along with recent satellite and radar
imagery, indicate that Isaias has weakened to a tropical storm due
to a combination of shear, dry air and interaction with Andros
Island earlier today. The initial intensity of 60 kt is based on
SFMR surface wind speeds of near 60 kt in the northeastern quadrant
on the last flight. A new reconnaissance mission into the cyclone is
currently ongoing and will provide new data concerning the Isaias'
intensity.

The initial motion estimate is 315/09 kt. After making a slight
west-northwestward jog a few hours ago after convection
significantly weakened, Isaias appears to have returned to its base
northwestward course. The new NHC model guidance is tightly packed
but has shifted slightly westward, with some of the more reliable
models now showing landfall along the east-central Florida coast in
about 24 hours. Earlier NOAA G-IV jet dropsonde data and 12Z
upper-air data reveal that the surface to 700 mb ridge extending
east-west across central and northern Florida remains intact whereas
the 500-300 mb ridge has completely eroded. The result is that lower
level ridge will cause Isaias to slow its forward motion to
northwestward at 6-8 kt during the next 36 hours. By 48 hours, the
erosion of the ridge due to an approaching shortwave trough will
allow the cyclone to move northward, followed by a gradual increase
in forward speed toward the northeast on days 3-5. The new NHC track
forecast was nudged slightly closer to the Florida east-central
coast through 24 hours, with no significant changes made to the
previous forecast after 36 hours.

A combination of Isaias moving over the warm Gulfstream waters
during the convective maximum period and increasing frictional
convergence due to land interaction with Florida should lead to an
increase in deep convection near and over the center, as shown by
simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF model. As a result,
Isaias is forecast to regain hurricane status tonight, as shown by
the HWRF and HMON model fields. By 36 hours and beyond, the global
models are in good agreement that an approaching mid- to upper-level
trough will increase southwesterly vertical wind shear, which
should result in gradual weakening until Isais becomes an
extratropical cyclone in about 96 hours. The new NHC intensity
forecast is closest to the HMON in 12 hours and closely follows the
IVCN and HCCA consensus models after 36 hours.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge will continue in
portions of the northwest Bahamas tonight.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the Florida
east coast on Sunday with tropical storm conditions expected to
begin tonight. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast
from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4
feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline
and adjacent waterways. Residents there should follow advice given
by local emergency officials.

4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash flooding in the Bahamas, and flash and urban flooding,
especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas, along the East
Coast of the United States. Minor river flooding and isolated
moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas
and Virginia early next week.

5. Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for portions of
the United States East Coast from northeast Florida to South
Carolina. Additional watches and warnings will likely be issued
tonight and Sunday as Isaias is expected to move northward near or
over the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts early next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 25.1N 78.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 26.1N 79.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 27.4N 80.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 28.8N 80.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 30.7N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 33.4N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 37.4N 76.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 05/1800Z 45.4N 68.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 06/1800Z 50.7N 57.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-08-01 20:51


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 012048
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020

...ISAIAS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT WHILE IT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 78.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward from Altamaha
Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina.

The Hurricane Watch from Hallandale Beach to south of Boca Raton
Florida has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee
* Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to South Santee River South
Carolina

Interests elsewhere along the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts of
the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional
watches or warnings may be required tonight or Sunday.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 25.1 North, longitude 78.7 West. Isaias is moving toward
the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A general northwestward
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next
day or so, followed by a north-northwestward motion by late Sunday
and a turn toward the north and north- northeast on Monday and
Tuesday with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track,
the center of Isaias will approach the southeast coast of Florida
tonight and move near or along the east coast of Florida Sunday and
Sunday night. On Monday and Tuesday, the center of Isaias will move
quickly from offshore of the coast of Georgia into the southern
mid-Atlantic states.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some restrengthening is forecast, and Isaias
is expected to regain hurricane strength tonight. Slow weakening is
expected to begin Sunday night and continue through Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. During hew past couple of hours, a Weatherflow
observing site at the Dania Pier in Broward County, Florida,
reported a wind gust to 59 mph (94 km/h) in an outer rainband. More
recently, a wind gust to 41 mph (67 km/h) was reported by a
Weatherflow site in Juno Beach, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance
aircraft data is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft
North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as
3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in
the Northwestern Bahamas.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue to
spread over portions of the Northwestern Bahamas tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the
hurricane warning area in Florida on Sunday and will spread
northward through Sunday night. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength later tonight, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning area in South Florida
tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
northeast Florida by Sunday night, and are possible in the watch
area from northeast Florida to South Carolina on Monday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Northeast Florida and coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches.

Carolinas and the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central
Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 7
inches.

Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially life-
threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas and flash and urban
flooding along the East Coast of the United States. Minor river
flooding and isolated moderate river flooding is possible across
portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.
These swells will spread along the east coast of Florida and the
southeastern United States coast through Sunday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-08-01 20:45


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 012042
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
2100 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM ALTAMAHA
SOUND GEORGIA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.

THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM HALLANDALE BEACH TO SOUTH OF BOCA RATON
FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOCA RATON TO THE VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE FLORIDA
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO SOUTH OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS OF
THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 78.7W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 45SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 78.7W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 78.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.1N 79.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 27.4N 80.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 28.8N 80.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 30.7N 80.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 33.4N 79.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 37.4N 76.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 45.4N 68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 50.7N 57.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 78.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 02/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-08-01 17:42


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 011740
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020

...ISAIAS EMERGING OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...
...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 78.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM S OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee
* Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and the Miami NOAA
Doppler weather radar near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 78.4 West.
Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
general northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is
expected for the next day or so, followed by a north-northwestward
motion by late Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias
will move over the Straits of Florida tonight, and approach the
southeast coast of Florida early Sunday morning. Isaias is then
forecast to move near or along the the east coast of the Florida
peninsula Sunday and Sunday night.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft and Doppler radar indicate
that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120
km/h) with higher gusts. Although Isaias has weakened after passing
over Andros Island, some re-strengthening is expected tonight and
Sunday morning when the cyclone will be moving over the warm waters
of the Straits of Florida and the Gulf Stream. Isaias is forecast to
remain a hurricane through Monday, followed by slow weakening
beginning Monday night or Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km). A wind gust to 49 mph (80 km/h) was recently
observed at Nassau, Bahamas. Doppler radar indicates that
tropical-storm-force winds are located just offshore Broward and
Miami-Dade Counties.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft
North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as
3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in
the Northwestern Bahamas.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread over the
Northwestern Bahamas through today.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the
hurricane warning area in Florida tonight and will spread northward
through Sunday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm
strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected within
the tropical storm warning area, and are possible within the watch
area, over southern Florida by this afternoon or evening.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
northeast Florida by late Sunday, and are possible in the watch
area in northeast Florida and southeast Georgia by Monday morning.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches.

Carolinas into the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central
Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Across the Northeast, from eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey,
southeast New York, and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially life-
threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas and flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas in
eastern Florida and across the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast. Minor river flooding is possible across portions of the
Carolinas and into Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.
These swells will spread along the east coast of Florida and the
southeastern United States coast today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-08-01 16:05


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 011604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 01.08.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 21.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.08.2020 0 18.0N 21.9W 1012 20
0000UTC 02.08.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 24.4N 77.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.08.2020 0 24.4N 77.5W 995 56
0000UTC 02.08.2020 12 25.4N 78.7W 996 50
1200UTC 02.08.2020 24 26.5N 79.7W 998 45
0000UTC 03.08.2020 36 27.5N 80.2W 996 43
1200UTC 03.08.2020 48 28.8N 80.6W 999 41
0000UTC 04.08.2020 60 30.3N 80.2W 990 50
1200UTC 04.08.2020 72 32.7N 79.1W 971 68
0000UTC 05.08.2020 84 36.3N 76.9W 983 51
1200UTC 05.08.2020 96 40.3N 73.6W 981 54
0000UTC 06.08.2020 108 45.3N 68.2W 985 47
1200UTC 06.08.2020 120 49.8N 65.3W 990 38
0000UTC 07.08.2020 132 54.0N 66.3W 991 30
1200UTC 07.08.2020 144 53.0N 68.7W 987 34

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 36.4N 50.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.08.2020 48 36.3N 49.3W 1014 29
0000UTC 04.08.2020 60 35.8N 48.2W 1016 27
1200UTC 04.08.2020 72 35.8N 47.4W 1016 26
0000UTC 05.08.2020 84 36.3N 45.9W 1016 23
1200UTC 05.08.2020 96 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011604

>

2020-08-01 16:04


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 011604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.08.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 21.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.08.2020 18.0N 21.9W WEAK
00UTC 02.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 24.4N 77.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.08.2020 24.4N 77.5W MODERATE
00UTC 02.08.2020 25.4N 78.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.08.2020 26.5N 79.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.08.2020 27.5N 80.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2020 28.8N 80.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2020 30.3N 80.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.08.2020 32.7N 79.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.08.2020 36.3N 76.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.08.2020 40.3N 73.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.08.2020 45.3N 68.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.08.2020 49.8N 65.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.08.2020 54.0N 66.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.08.2020 53.0N 68.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 36.4N 50.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.08.2020 36.3N 49.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 04.08.2020 35.8N 48.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2020 35.8N 47.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2020 36.3N 45.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011604

>

2020-08-01 15:13


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 011510 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 18...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020

Corrected rainfall statement

...ISAIAS MAKING LANDFALL ON NORTHERN ANDROS ISLAND...
...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY
AND SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 77.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM WSW OF NASSAU
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from the Volusia/Flagler County Line to
Ponte Vedra Beach Florida has been changed to a Tropical Storm
Warning.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Ponte Vedra
Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee
* Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
Bahamas radar near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 77.9 West. Isaias
is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
for the next day or so, followed by a north-northwestward motion by
late Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move
over northern Andros Island during the next few hours and move
near or over Grand Bahama Island in the Northwestern Bahamas later
today. Isaias is forecast to move near the east coast of the
Florida peninsula tonight through Sunday.

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased slightly to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through
Sunday, and Isaias is forecast to remain a hurricane during this
time. Slow weakening is expected to begin by late Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km). Reports from a U.S. Navy site on Andros Island indicate
that sustained winds of 45 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 69 mph (111
km/h) occurred about 3 hours ago. More recently, a sustained wind of
35 mph (56 km/h) and a gust to 48 mph (77 km/h) were measured at
Nassau, Bahamas.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft
North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as
3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in
the Northwestern Bahamas.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread over the
Northwestern Bahamas through today.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the
hurricane warning area in Florida tonight and will spread northward
through Sunday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm
strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected within
the tropical storm warning area, and are possible within the watch
area, over southern Florida by this afternoon or evening.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
northeast Florida by late Sunday, and are possible in the watch
area in northeast Florida and southeast Georgia by Monday morning.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches.

Carolinas into the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central
Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Across the Northeast, from eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey,
southeast New York, and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially
life-threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas and flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas in
eastern Florida and across the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast. Minor river flooding is possible across portions of the
Carolinas and into Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.
These swells will spread along the east coast of Florida and the
southeastern United States coast today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-08-01 15:01


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 011500
TCDAT4

Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft around 1410
UTC indicated that the center of the eye of Isaias was located
along the southern coast of northern Andros Island about 15 nmi
south-southwest of Andros Town. The eye appearance in Bahamas and
aircraft radar data, along with the visual reports from the flight
crew, has gone from nearly closed a few hours ago to open in the
southwestern quadrant more recently. However, the diameter of the
eye has been has been holding steady between 20-22 nmi, an
indication that Isaias has been able to fight off some modest
southwesterly wind shear. The initial intensity has been lowered
to 70 kt based on maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 77 kt, which
equals about 70-kt surface wind speed, and the central pressure
fluctuating between 987-990 mb.

The initial motion estimate remains 315/10 kt. The latest NHC model
guidance is now tightly packed about the previous 18-h worth of
official track forecasts, and as a result, no significant changes
were made to the previous advisory track. The global and regional
models have come into much better agreement compared to 24 hours ago
in taking Isaias northwestward slowly for the next 36 h or so, and
moving the center near or keeping it just offshore the east-central
Florida coast. By 48 hours, the hurricane is expected to turn
northward around the western portion of the Bermuda-Azores ridge
that will slowly be eroded by an approaching mid-level shortwave
trough currently situated over the central United States. By 60 h
and beyond, the aforementioned trough is expected to gradually
accelerate Isaias northeastward near or along the coast from
South Carolina to New England. The new NHC track forecast is
basically an extension of the previous one, and lies very close to
an average of the simple consensus model TVCA, and the corrected-
consensus models NOAA-HCCA and FSSE.

In the near term, Isaias could weaken a little bit this afternoon
while passing over northern Andros Island. However, the still
impressive vertical structure of the cyclone should allow for some
re-strengthening after the center moves back over the warm Gulf
Stream by this evening. The current SHIPS analyzed westerly
vertical wind shear of 25 kt could be too high due to the model
incorporating some of the storm's outflow. The models forecast the
shear to weaken somewhat over the next 36 h while Isaias is moving
over the Gulf Stream, and the 06Z UKMET shows Isaias moving
underneath a 200-mb anticyclone, which would normally favor some
strengthening. Given all of these factors, the official forecast
maintains a steady intensity through Monday night. Slow weakening
is forecast when Isais encounters more significant southwesterly
vertical wind shear ahead of a strong upper-level trough that will
be approaching the U.S. east coast on days 3-5.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge will continue in
portions of the northwest Bahamas today and tonight.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the Florida
east coast by late tonight and Sunday. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast
from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4
feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline
and adjacent waterways. Residents there should follow advice given
by local emergency officials.

4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash flooding in the Bahamas, and flash urban flooding, especially
in low-lying and poorly drained areas, in eastern Florida, and from
the Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. Minor river
flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia
early next week.

5. Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for portions
of the northeast Florida and southern Georgia coasts. Additional
watches and warnings will likely be issued later today and Sunday
along the U.S. east coast as the risk of wind, heavy rainfall, and
storm surge impacts continues to increase.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 24.7N 77.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 25.7N 78.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 27.1N 79.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 28.5N 80.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 30.1N 80.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 32.6N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 36.0N 76.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 05/1200Z 43.3N 69.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 06/1200Z 49.0N 57.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-08-01 14:50


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 011447
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020

...ISAIAS MAKING LANDFALL ON NORTHERN ANDROS ISLAND...
...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY
AND SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 77.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM WSW OF NASSAU
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from the Volusia/Flagler County Line to
Ponte Vedra Beach Florida has been changed to a Tropical Storm
Warning.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Ponte Vedra
Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee
* Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
Bahamas radar near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 77.9 West. Isaias
is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
for the next day or so, followed by a north-northwestward motion by
late Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move
over northern Andros Island during the next few hours and move
near or over Grand Bahama Island in the Northwestern Bahamas later
today. Isaias is forecast to move near the east coast of the
Florida peninsula tonight through Sunday.

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased slightly to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through
Sunday, and Isaias is forecast to remain a hurricane during this
time. Slow weakening is expected to begin by late Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km). Reports from a U.S. Navy site on Andros Island indicate
that sustained winds of 45 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 69 mph (111
km/h) occurred about 3 hours ago. More recently, a sustained wind of
35 mph (56 km/h) and a gust to 48 mph (77 km/h) were measured at
Nassau, Bahamas.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft
North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as
3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in
the Northwestern Bahamas.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread over the
Northwestern Bahamas through today.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the
hurricane warning area in Florida tonight and will spread northward
through Sunday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm
strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected within
the tropical storm warning area, and are possible within the watch
area, over southern Florida by this afternoon or evening.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
northeast Florida by late Sunday, and are possible in the watch
area in northeast Florida and southeast Georgia by Monday morning.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts could lead to life-threatening flash and
urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

From Friday night through Tuesday:

South Florida into east-central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches.

Carolinas into the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central
Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially life-
threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying
and poorly drained areas. Minor river flooding is possible across
portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.
These swells will spread along the east coast of Florida and the
southeastern United States coast today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-08-01 14:47


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 011445
TCMAT4

HURRICANE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
1500 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE TO
PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA
BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOCA RATON TO THE VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE FLORIDA
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HALLANDALE BEACH TO SOUTH OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO SOUTH OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 77.9W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 30SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 45SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 77.9W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 77.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 25.7N 78.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 27.1N 79.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 28.5N 80.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 30.1N 80.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 32.6N 79.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 36.0N 76.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 43.3N 69.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 49.0N 57.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 77.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 01/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-08-01 11:53


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 011151
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020

...RAGGED EYE OF ISAIAS NEAR EASTERN ANDROS ISLAND...
...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY
AND SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 77.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF ANDROS ISLAND BAHAMAS
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM S OF NASSAU BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for the Central Bahamas has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located
by NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Bahamas
radar near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 77.5 West. Isaias is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest by late Sunday. On the forecast track, the center
of Isaias will move near or over Andros Island in the Northwestern
Bahamas this morning and continue to move near or over the rest of
Northwestern Bahamas later today, and move near the east coast of
the Florida peninsula tonight through Sunday.

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through Sunday, and and
Isaias is forecast to remain a hurricane during this time.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the aircraft was
987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft
North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as
3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in
the Northwestern Bahamas.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread over the
Northwestern Bahamas later today.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the
hurricane warning area in Florida tonight and will spread northward
through Sunday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm
strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning area, and are possible within the
watch area, over southern Florida by this afternoon or evening.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts could lead to life-threatening flash and
urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

From Friday night through Tuesday:

South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches.

Carolinas into the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central
Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying
and poorly drained areas. Minor river flooding is possible across
portions of the Carolinas and into Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern
and central Bahamas. These swells will spread along the east coast
of Florida and the southeastern United States coast today. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-08-01 08:57


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 010855
TCDAT4

Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020

Isaias has a somewhat ragged appearance in satellite imagery this
morning, likely due to the impact of westerly shear and dry air
entrainment. The area of central convection has shrunk in size,
although radar data from the Bahamas shows some banding near the
center and occasional attempts to wrap up an eyewall. Also, a dry
slot is now present in the eastern semicircle between the central
convection and the outer banding. The last Hurricane Hunter
mission indicated that the maximum winds had increased to near 75
kt, so that is maintained for this advisory. NOAA and Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate the
storm during the next several hours.

The initial motion is now northwestward or 315/10 kt. The track
forecast philosophy remains unchanged, as Isais should continue to
move northwestward on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge today
and begin to turn north-northwestward through a weakness in the
ridge on Sunday. After that, the storm should recurve into the
mid-latitude westerlies, with a turn toward the north-northeast and
northeast with an increase in forward speed likely. The track
guidance envelope has shifted a little to the east near the Florida
coast and calls for a slower forward motion that the previous
guidance. Thus, the new forecast track has been adjusted a little
east of, and slower than, the previous track.

The hurricane is currently undergoing about 25 kt of westerly
vertical shear, and some mid-level dry air is present west of the
center. This combination should prevent any more intensification,
and, while Isaias is expected to remain a hurricane as it passes
near the Florida coast, at least slight weakening should occur
during this time. Current indications from the global models are
that the storm will continue to experience strong shear as it
recurves, and thus the intensity forecast follows the previous
forecast in calling for weakening during this time.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the Bahamas through Saturday, and Hurricane Warnings
are in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the Florida
east coast late Saturday and Saturday night, and a Hurricane Warning
is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast
from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4
feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline
and adjacent waterways. Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained
areas, across South to east-Central Florida, and across the
Carolinas to the mid Atlantic. Minor river flooding is possible
across portions of the Carolinas and into Virginia early next week.

5. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm
surge spreading along much of the the U.S. east coast through early
next week, and interests there should monitor the progress of Isaias
and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 23.9N 77.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 25.0N 78.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 26.3N 79.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 27.6N 79.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 29.1N 80.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 31.2N 79.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 34.0N 77.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 41.5N 71.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 06/0600Z 47.5N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-08-01 08:53


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 010851
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020

...CENTER OF ISAIAS APPROACHING ANDROS ISLAND...
...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY
AND SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 77.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida
* Northwestern Bahamas
* Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located
near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 77.1 West. Isaias is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a general
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest by late Sunday. On the forecast track, the center
of Isaias will move near or over the Central Bahamas this morning,
near or over the Northwestern Bahamas later today and near the east
coast of the Florida peninsula tonight through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Sunday, and
and Isaias is forecast to remain a hurricane during this time.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft
North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds in the Bahamas.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring over portions of the
Central Bahamas and will spread over the Northwestern Bahamas later
today.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the
hurricane warning area in Florida tonight and will spread northward
through Sunday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm
strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning area, and are possible within the
watch area, over southern Florida by this afternoon or evening.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts could lead to life-threatening flash and
urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

From Friday night through Tuesday:

South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches.

Carolinas into the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central
Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying
and poorly drained areas. Minor river flooding is possible across
portions of the Carolinas and into Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern
and central Bahamas. These swells will spread along the east coast
of Florida and the southeastern United States coast today. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-08-01 08:53


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 010851
TCMAT4

HURRICANE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
0900 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOCA RATON TO THE VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE FLORIDA
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HALLANDALE BEACH TO SOUTH OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO SOUTH OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 77.1W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 70SE 30SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 45SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 77.1W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 76.6W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.0N 78.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.3N 79.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 27.6N 79.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 29.1N 80.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 31.2N 79.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 34.0N 77.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 41.5N 71.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 47.5N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 77.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 01/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-08-01 05:57


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 010556
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020

...ISAIAS GETS A LITTLE STRONGER...
...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY
AND SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 76.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Boca Raton to the Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida
* Northwestern Bahamas
* Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located
near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 76.7 West. Isaias is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (23 km/h), and a general
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest by late Sunday. On the forecast track, the center
of Isaias will move near or over the Central Bahamas this morning,
near or over the Northwestern Bahamas later today and near the east
coast of the Florida peninsula this afternoon through Sunday.

Reports from an Air force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 85 mph (135 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today,
and Isaias is forecast to remain a hurricane for the next couple of
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). A private weather station on Darby Island recently
reported sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft was 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft
North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds in the Bahamas.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring over portions of the
Central Bahamas and will spread over the Northwestern Bahamas later
today.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the
hurricane warning area in Florida late today and tonight and will
spread northward through Sunday. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength later today, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning area, and are possible
within the watch area, over southern Florida by this afternoon
or evening.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts could lead to life-threatening flash and
urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

From Friday night through Tuesday:

South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches.

Carolinas into the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central
Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Isolated
minor river flooding is possible across the eastern Carolinas and
into Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern
and central Bahamas. These swells will spread along the east coast
of Florida and the southeastern United States coast today. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-08-01 02:47


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 010245
TCDAT4

Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

Isaias has a somewhat asymmetrical appearance on satellite images,
with lots of deep convection over the eastern semicircle and not as
much over the western part of the circulation. Reports from an Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure
has dropped a few mb, and flight-level and SFMR-observed surface
wind observations from the aircraft indicate an intensity of near
70 kt. The hurricane is experiencing some westerly shear, and this
is likely to limit intensification. However, some strengthening is
still possible on Saturday. When Isais moves farther north in a
couple of days, the shear should cause a gradual weakening trend to
begin. The official intensity forecast is about the same as the
previous one, and a little above the model consensus.

The hurricane continues moving northwestward at a bit slower pace,
or 310/13 kt. The general track forecast philosophy has not
changed. Isais should continue to move northwestward on the
southwest side of a mid-level ridge through Saturday and begin to
turn north-northwestward through a weakness in the ridge on Sunday.
Thereafter, a turn toward the north-northeast and northeast with an
increase in forward speed is likely during days 3 to 5. The
official track forecast is close to the previous one and also very
close to the latest dynamical model consensus.

The hurricane warning has been extended northward along the Florida
east coast.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the Bahamas through Saturday, and Hurricane Warnings
are in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the Florida
east coast late Saturday and Saturday night, and a Hurricane Warning
has been issued. Preparations to protect life and property should
be rushed to completion.

3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast
from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4
feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline
and adjacent waterways. Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained
areas, across South to east-Central Florida, and across the
Carolinas to the mid Atlantic. Isolated minor river flooding is
possible across the eastern Carolinas and into Virginia early next
week.

5. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm
surge spreading along much of the the U.S. east coast through early
next week, and interests there should monitor the progress of Isaias
and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 23.3N 76.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 24.5N 77.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 25.9N 79.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 27.1N 80.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 28.5N 80.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 30.2N 80.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 33.1N 78.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 41.0N 72.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 47.5N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-08-01 02:46


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 010244
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...ISAIAS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA
TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 76.4W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch is changed to a Hurricane Warning from the
Volusia-Brevard County line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Boca Raton to the Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida
* Northwestern Bahamas
* Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required on Saturday.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was
located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 76.4 West. Isaias is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a general
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest by late Sunday. On the forecast track, the center
of Isaias will move near or over the Central Bahamas tonight, near
or over the Northwestern Bahamas Saturday and near the east coast of
the Florida peninsula Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through early
Saturday, and Isaias is forecast to remain a hurricane for the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft
North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds in the Bahamas.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring over portions of the
Central Bahamas and will spread over the Northwestern Bahamas on
Saturday.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the
hurricane warning area in Florida late Saturday and Saturday night
and will spread northward through Sunday. Winds are expected to
first reach tropical storm strength on Saturday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area, and
are possible within the watch area, over southern Florida by
Saturday afternoon or evening.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts could lead to life-threatening flash and
urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

From Friday night through Tuesday:

South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches.

Carolinas into the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central
Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Isolated
minor river flooding is possible across the eastern Carolinas and
into Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern
and central Bahamas. These swells will spread along the east coast
of Florida and the southeastern United States coast on Saturday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-08-01 02:46


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 010244
TCMAT4

HURRICANE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
0300 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH IS CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING FROM THE
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOCA RATON TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HALLANDALE BEACH TO SOUTH OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO SOUTH OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON SATURDAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 76.4W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 70SE 30SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 150SE 90SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 76.4W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 75.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.5N 77.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 25.9N 79.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 27.1N 80.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 28.5N 80.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 30.2N 80.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 33.1N 78.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 41.0N 72.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 47.5N 64.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 76.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 01/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-07-31 23:50


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 312348
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 75.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Hurricane
Warning for the Southeastern Bahamas, and discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Boca Raton to the Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida
* Northwestern Bahamas
* Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallendale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Volusia-Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later tonight and Saturday.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located
by Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 22.9
North, longitude 75.9 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest
near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a general northwestward motion with some
decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or so,
followed by a turn toward the north-northwest by late Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near or over the
Central Bahamas tonight, near or over the Northwestern Bahamas
Saturday and near the east coast of the Florida peninsula Saturday
afternoon through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected later tonight and early
Saturday, and Isaias is forecast to remain a hurricane for the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). Staniel Cay in the Exumas recently reported
sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft
North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds in the Bahamas.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread northwestward
into the central and northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the
hurricane warning area in Florida late Saturday and Saturday night.
Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength on
Saturday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts could lead to life-threatening flash and
urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

From Friday night through Tuesday:

South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches.

Carolinas into the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central
Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Isolated
minor river flooding is possible across the eastern Carolinas and
into Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern
and central Bahamas. These swells will spread along the east coast
of Florida and the southeastern United States coast on Saturday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-07-31 20:52


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 312050
TCDAT4

Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

Deep convection, with occasional overshooting cloud tops of -85C to
-90C just north of the center, has continued to develop during the
normal diurnal convective minimum period, which is quite impressive.
The most recent Air Force Reserve recon flight-level wind data,
along with ASCAT surface wind data, indicate that the inner-core and
outer wind field have both contracted in size. Furthermore, radar
data from the Bahamas and an 1810Z AMSR-2 microwave pass also
indicate that a small 10-nmi-wide mid-level eye is forming. The last
recon central pressure was 991 mb and the 700 mb height had
decreased by 30 meters since the earlier maximum height around
1230Z. These data indicate that Isaias is getting better organized.
The initial intensity remains 65 kt based on an earlier 700-mb
flight-level wind speed of 72 kt, which reduces to a 65-kt surface
wind speed using a 90-percent adjustment factor.

The initial motion remains northwestward or 305/12 kt. The 12Z
global models have once again made a westward shift due to the ridge
to the north of Isaias not weakening as quickly as expected. This is
partly due to the ridge being stronger than expected and a shortwave
trough over the central United States moving a little slower into
the southeastern U.S. than previously indicated. The UKMET and ECMWF
explicitly show Isaias making landfall in 36-48 hours along the
southeast Florida coast, but appear to weaken the system below
hurricane strength. The GFS similarly brings the cyclone close to
the southeast and east-central Florida coasts, but also as a
somewhat weaker system. In the 48 to 60-hour period, the cyclone is
forecast to move slowly north-northwestward and northward through a
break in the subtropical ridge extending westward from the Atlantic
across Florida and into the northern Gulf of Mexico. By that time,
however, Isaias is expected to weaken below hurricane strength due
to the combination of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and
interaction the Florida peninsula. Around 72 hours, the cyclone
should accelerate northeastward and possibly strengthen some before
passing over eastern North Carolina on day 4, and across eastern New
England on day 5. The NHC track forecast lies close to a blend of
the consensus models TVCA and NOAA-HCCA and is east of the UKMET
and ECMWF with the system forecast to be stronger than those
models indicate. Due to the westward shift in the NHC forecast
track, a Hurricane Warning and Storm Surge Watch have been issued
for portions of the Florida east coast.

The center of Isaias is now located in the center of an expanding
CDO feature. The improved inner-core wind field and aforementioned
convective structure, along with very warm SSTs near 30C, should
support some strengthening overnight and early Saturday morning.
However, increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to
cause a gradual decrease in intensity by Sunday and continue into
early next week. The new official intensity forecast is a little
lower than the previous advisory and is near the higher end of the
intensity guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the Bahamas through Saturday, and Hurricane Warnings
are in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the Florida
east coast late Saturday and Saturday night, and a Hurricane Warning
has been issued. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast
from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4
feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline
and adjacent waterways. Residents in these areas should follow
advice given by local emergency officials.

4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained
areas across south to east-central Florida, and across the Carolinas
to the mid Atlantic. Isolated minor river flooding is possible
across the eastern Carolinas and into Virginia early next week.

5. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm
surge spreading along much of the the U.S. east coast through early
next week, and interests there should monitor the progress of Isaias
and updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 22.6N 75.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 23.9N 77.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 25.4N 78.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 26.8N 79.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 28.3N 80.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 30.0N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 32.5N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 39.0N 74.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 45.4N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-07-31 20:51


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 312049
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 75.7W
ABOUT 195 MI...320 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the east coast of Florida from
Boca Raton to the Volusia/Brevard County Line.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from the Volusia/Brevard County Line
to the Flagler/Volusia County Line and from south of Boca Raton to
Hallendale Beach.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the east coast of Florida from
Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedre Beach.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the Flagler/Volusia County
Line to Ponte Vedre Beach.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Boca Raton to the Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida
* Northwestern Bahamas
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Central Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hallendale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Volusia-Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedre Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Ponte Vedre Beach Florida

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later tonight and Saturday.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located
by satellite imagery and Bahamas radar data near latitude 22.6
North, longitude 75.7 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest
near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a general northwestward motion with some
decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or so,
followed by a turn toward the north-northwest by late Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Isaias will continue to move near
or over the Southeastern Bahamas this afternoon and evening. Isaias
is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas tonight, and move near or
over the Northwestern Bahamas Saturday and near the east coast of
the Florida peninsula Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected later tonight and early Saturday,
and Isaias is forecast to remain a hurricane for the next couple of
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). A private weather observing station at Pitts Town Point,
Bahamas, recently reported a sustained wind of 37 mph (59 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft
North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds in the Bahamas.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread northwestward
into the central and northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the
hurricane warning area in Florida late Saturday and Saturday night.
Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength on
Saturday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts could lead to life-threatening flash and
urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

From Friday night through Tuesday:

South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches.

Carolinas into the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central
Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Isolated
minor river flooding is possible across the eastern Carolinas and
into Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern
and central Bahamas. These swells will spread along the east coast
of Florida and the southeastern United States coast on Saturday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-07-31 20:51


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 312049
TCMAT4

HURRICANE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
2100 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
BOCA RATON TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE
TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE AND FROM SOUTH OF BOCA RATON TO
HALLENDALE BEACH.

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
JUPITER INLET TO PONTE VEDRE BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY
LINE TO PONTE VEDRE BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOCA RATON TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HALLENDALE BEACH TO SOUTH OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA
* VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET TO PONTE VEDRE BEACH FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO SOUTH OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRE BEACH FLORIDA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 75.7W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 70SE 30SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 150SE 90SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 75.7W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 75.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.9N 77.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.4N 78.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.8N 79.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 28.3N 80.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 30.0N 80.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 32.5N 79.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 39.0N 74.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 45.4N 65.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 75.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 01/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-07-31 17:53


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 311751
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ISAIAS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING INTO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 75.2W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia-Brevard County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* North of Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Okeechobee

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Bahamas radar
near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 75.2 West. Isaias is moving
toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a general
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
for the day or so followed by a turn toward the north-northwest. On
the forecast track, the center of Isaias will continue to move near
or over the Southeastern Bahamas today. Isaias is forecast to be
near the Central Bahamas tonight, and move near or over the
Northwestern Bahamas Saturday and near the east coast of the Florida
peninsula Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected later today and tonight, and Isaias is
forecast to remain a hurricane for the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum
central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds in the Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of
the Turks and Caicos this morning. Hurricane conditions in the
southeastern Bahamas will spread northwestward into the central and
northwestern Bahamas tonight and into Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Florida beginning Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
Hurricane Watch area beginning Saturday night and continuing into
Sunday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches.

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream
flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Hispaniola.

From Friday night through Monday:

South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

These rainfall amounts could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect the eastern
Carolinas by early next week. This rain could result in isolated
flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained
areas, as well as isolated minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern
and central Bahamas. These swells will spread into the central
northwestern Bahamas later today and along the east coast of
Florida and the southeastern United States coast on Saturday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-07-31 16:52


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 311646
TCUAT4

Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1245 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

The 1100 AM EDT advisory package and graphics inadvertently
indicated that a Tropical Storm Warning had replaced the Tropical
Storm Watch for Lake Okeechobee. Lake Okeechobee remains under a
Tropical Storm Watch and updated graphics have been sent to
reflect this. This correction will be reflected in the 2 PM EDT
Public Advisory.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Brown

>

2020-07-31 16:05


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 311604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 31.07.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 19.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.07.2020 0 14.4N 19.5W 1011 19
0000UTC 01.08.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 21.6N 73.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.07.2020 0 21.6N 73.9W 1003 46
0000UTC 01.08.2020 12 23.0N 76.7W 1001 46
1200UTC 01.08.2020 24 24.1N 78.7W 1001 40
0000UTC 02.08.2020 36 25.0N 79.9W 1001 42
1200UTC 02.08.2020 48 25.9N 80.8W 1004 30
0000UTC 03.08.2020 60 27.0N 81.3W 1004 30
1200UTC 03.08.2020 72 28.3N 81.7W 1007 30
0000UTC 04.08.2020 84 30.2N 81.1W 1002 40
1200UTC 04.08.2020 96 32.7N 79.9W 989 55
0000UTC 05.08.2020 108 36.5N 78.0W 987 36
1200UTC 05.08.2020 120 40.9N 75.0W 990 48
0000UTC 06.08.2020 132 46.5N 70.3W 990 30
1200UTC 06.08.2020 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 36.7N 49.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.08.2020 72 36.6N 47.9W 1012 33
0000UTC 04.08.2020 84 36.0N 45.9W 1013 29
1200UTC 04.08.2020 96 35.5N 44.8W 1014 25
0000UTC 05.08.2020 108 35.3N 43.6W 1015 22
1200UTC 05.08.2020 120 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 311604

>

2020-07-31 16:05


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 311604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 31.07.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 19.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 31.07.2020 14.4N 19.5W WEAK
00UTC 01.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 21.6N 73.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 31.07.2020 21.6N 73.9W WEAK
00UTC 01.08.2020 23.0N 76.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.08.2020 24.1N 78.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.08.2020 25.0N 79.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.08.2020 25.9N 80.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.08.2020 27.0N 81.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2020 28.3N 81.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2020 30.2N 81.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.08.2020 32.7N 79.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.08.2020 36.5N 78.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.08.2020 40.9N 75.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.08.2020 46.5N 70.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 36.7N 49.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.08.2020 36.6N 47.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 04.08.2020 36.0N 45.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2020 35.5N 44.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2020 35.3N 43.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 311604

>

2020-07-31 15:03


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 311501
TCDAT4

Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

After a brief convective hiatus earlier this morning, a small burst
of deep convection with cloud tops as cold as -80C to -85C have
developed over the previously exposed low-level center. Dry
downslope air coming off of Hispaniola wrapped into the center,
eroding the inner-core convection somewhat. However, a surge of
moist southwesterly inflow moving through the Windward Passage now
appears to be fueling the recent increase in convection. The
upper-level outflow has improved somewhat in the western
semicircle but still remains restricted due to some modest
southwesterly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity has been
lowered to 65 kt based on 700-mb flight-level winds of near 70 kt
and an increase in the central pressure of 992 mb, which is based on
a dropsonde report of 995 mb with 26-kt surface winds.

Isaias is continuing on a steady northwestward motion of 305/14 kt.
This motion is expected to continue for the next 36 hours or so as
the hurricane rounds the southwestern periphery of the
Bermuda-Azores High. A gradual turn to the north-northwest and
north is expected by 48-60 hours due to a break in the ridge
developing in response to a central U.S. shortwave trough digging
into the southeastern United States. The timing and strength of this
trough will determine how far west Isaias moves before the hurricane
turns northward. The 06Z UKMET and and GFS have shifted westward,
closer to the Florida coast, which is similar to the westward shift
seen in the 00Z ECMWF model fields. By 72 hours, the hurricane is
forecast to begin accelerating northeastward, possibly passing over
eastern North Carolina by day 4 and across eastern New England on
day 5. As a result of the westward shift in the latest model
guidance, the new NHC forecast track has also been shifted farther
west closer to the southeastern U.S. coast, and lies a little to the
west of the consensus models TVCA and NOAA-HCCA. The westward shift
in the track forecast has required the issuance of a Hurricane Watch
for portions of the Florida east coast.

Although some slight weakening has occurred, radar data from the
aircraft and the Bahamas radar indicate about a 60-percent
eyewall has formed in the northeastern semicircle, which is an
indication that the cyclone is trying to reorganize. As a result,
strengthening is still expected during the next day or so,
especially tonight and Saturday morning during the convective
maximum period when the hurricane will be moving over the Gulf
Stream where SSTs are 30C or warmer and while the vertical remains
reasonably low. Increasing southwesterly shear could cause a gradual
decrease in intensity over the weekend. The new official intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is a little above
the available model guidance out of respect for continuity.

Key Messages:

1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides across the Dominican Republic, northern
Haiti, Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas. Heavy rains associated
with Isaias may begin to affect south and east-central Florida late
Friday night, and the eastern Carolinas by early next week,
potentially resulting in isolated flash and urban flooding,
especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Isolated minor
river flooding is possible in the Carolinas early next week.

2. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the Bahamas today and Saturday, and Hurricane Warnings
are in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected with hurricane conditions
possible along portions of the Florida east coast beginning
Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in
effect. Storm surge watches or warnings could be needed for part of
this area this afternoon.

4. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm
surge beginning late this weekend along the northeastern Florida
coast and spreading northward along the remainder of the U.S. east
coast through early next week. Interests along the entire U.S. east
coast should monitor the progress of Isaias and updates to the
forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 21.7N 74.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 23.0N 76.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 24.8N 78.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 26.3N 79.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 27.7N 79.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 29.2N 80.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 31.6N 79.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 36.4N 76.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 43.3N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-07-31 14:51


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 311447
TCMAT4

HURRICANE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
1500 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO THE VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SEBASTIAN
INLET AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...
ELEUTHERA...ABACOS ISLANDS...BERRY ISLANDS...GRAND BAHAMAS
ISLAND...AND BIMINI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* NORTH OF OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SEBASTIAN INLET
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 74.5W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT.......180NE 90SE 50SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 90SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 74.5W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 74.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.0N 76.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 50SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.8N 78.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.3N 79.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 27.7N 79.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 29.2N 80.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 31.6N 79.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 36.4N 76.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 43.3N 69.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 74.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 31/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-07-31 14:50


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 311447
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...
...SQUALLY WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 74.5W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of the Florida east
coast from north of Deerfield Beach northward to the
Volusia-Brevard County Line.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for portions of the
Florida east coast from north of Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian
Inlet and for Lake Okeechobee.

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican Republic.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia-Brevard County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* North of Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
Bahamas radar near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 74.5 West. Isaias
is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a
general northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed
is expected for the day or so followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias
will continue to move near or over the Southeastern Bahamas today.
Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas tonight, and move
near or over the Northwestern Bahamas Saturday and near the east
coast of the Florida peninsula Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is possible today and tonight, and Isaias is expected
to remain a hurricane for the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum
central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds in the Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of
the Turks and Caicos this morning. Hurricane conditions in the
southeastern Bahamas will spread northwestward into the central and
northwestern Bahamas tonight and into Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Florida beginning Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
Hurricane Watch area beginning Saturday night and continuing into
Sunday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches.

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream
flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Hispaniola.

From Friday night through Monday:

South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

These rainfall amounts could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect the eastern
Carolinas by early next week. This rain could result in isolated
flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained
areas, as well as isolated minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern
and central Bahamas. These swells will spread into the central
northwestern Bahamas later today and along the east coast of
Florida on Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-07-31 11:59


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 311157
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SQUALLS LASHING THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 73.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches or warnings may be required for a portion of the Florida
peninsula later today. The Tropical Storm Warning for the
Dominican Republic will likely be discontinued later this morning.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located
by NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 21.3 North, longitude 73.9 West. Isaias is moving toward
the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a generally northwestward
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next
couple of days followed by a turn toward the north-northwest. On
the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near or over the
Southeastern Bahamas today. Isaias is forecast to be near the
Central Bahamas tonight, and move near or over the Northwestern
Bahamas and be near or east of the Florida peninsula on Saturday and
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible today, and Isaias is expected
to remain a hurricane for the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km). A private weather observing site at Long Bay Beach
in Providenciales recently reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (86
km/h) and a gust to 59 mph (95 km/h).

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum
central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds in the Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of
the Dominican Republic and the Turks and Caicos this morning.
Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the southeastern
Bahamas this morning and spread into the central and
northwestern Bahamas tonight and into Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida
beginning Saturday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Saturday:

Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches.

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream
flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Hispaniola.

From Friday night through Monday:

South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

These rainfall amounts could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect the eastern
Carolinas by early next week. This rain could result in isolated
flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained
areas, as well as isolated minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread along the coast of
Cuba and into the central and northwestern Bahamas later today and
along the east coast of Florida on Saturday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-07-31 08:58


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 310855
TCDAT4

Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

Satellite images indicate that Isaias is maintaining a small
central dense overcast, with a new burst of convection recently
forming near the center. Earlier aircraft data indicated that the
pressure had fallen to 990 mb, although there was little from the
aircraft that supported more than the previous advisory's intensity
of 70 kt.

The hurricane has been moving between west-northwest and northwest
during the last several hours, estimated at 305/15 now. Isaias
should gradually turn to the north-northwest and north over the
weekend as it moves around the western periphery of a weakening
western Atlantic subtropical ridge. Guidance is in fairly good
agreement over the first couple of days of the forecast, so little
change is made at that time, other than a small westward adjustment
near the Bahamas. After that time, there is a considerable spread,
growing to over 700 miles, in the reliable models on how quickly
Isaias moves northeastward near the east coast of the United States.
The large spread appears to be related to both how strong the
cyclone is by early next week and how much mid-level ridging
remains near the Carolinas. There are no obvious reasons to choose
either the fast GFS or slow ECMWF right now, so the official
forecast will remain close to the previous one and the model
consensus. It should be noted that given this large spread, the
extended forecast could be subject to large speed/timing changes if
either of those solutions become more likely.

Strengthening is expected during the next day or so while the
hurricane remains over the very warm waters near the Bahamas with
reasonably low vertical shear. The forecast for the first 24 hours
has been raised from earlier, at the top of the guidance spread.
Increasingly southwesterly flow aloft should cause an increase in
shear over the weekend, which is forecast by most of the guidance
to lead to a gradual decrease in intensity. The details are not
very clear at all, especially considering the track uncertainty,
but there is a notable chance of a hurricane moving close to the
U.S. East coast, so the forecast continues to show that scenario.


Key Messages:

1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides across the Dominican Republic, northern
Haiti, Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas. Heavy rains associated
with Isaias may begin to affect South and east-Central Florida
beginning late Friday night, and the eastern Carolinas by early next
week, potentially resulting in isolated flash and urban flooding,
especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Isolated minor
river flooding is possible in the Carolinas early next week.

2. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the Bahamas today and Saturday, and Hurricane Warnings
are in effect for these areas. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
Florida east coast beginning Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Watch
remains in effect. While storm surge watches are not currently
needed for this area, they may be required later today if the
forecast track shifts closer to the coast. Heavy rains associated
with Isaias may begin to affect South Florida and east-Central
Florida beginning late tonight, potentially resulting in isolated
flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly
drained areas.

4. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm
surge late this weekend from the northeastern Florida coast and
spreading northward along the remainder of the U.S. east coast
through early next week. The details of the track and intensity
forecast remain uncertain, and it is too soon to determine the
magnitude and location of these potential impacts, but interests
along the entire U.S. east coast should monitor the progress of
Isaias and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 20.9N 73.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 22.3N 75.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 24.0N 77.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 25.7N 78.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 27.3N 79.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 28.8N 79.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 30.6N 79.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 36.5N 75.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 42.5N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-07-31 08:57


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 310854
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 73.3W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches or warnings may be required for a portion of the Florida
peninsula later today.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located
near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 73.3 West. Isaias is moving
toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a generally
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
for the next couple of days followed by turn toward the
north-northwest. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will
move near or over the Southeastern Bahamas today. Isaias is
forecast to be near the Central Bahamas tonight and move near
or over the Northwestern Bahamas and near or east of the Florida
peninsula on Saturday and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible today, and Isaias is
expected to remain a hurricane for the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds in the Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of
the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos this
morning. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in the
southeastern Bahamas this morning and spread into the central and
northwestern Bahamas tonight and into Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida
beginning Saturday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Saturday:

Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches.

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream
flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Hispaniola.

From Friday night through Monday:

South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

These rainfall amounts could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect the eastern
Carolinas by early next week. This rain could result in isolated
flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained
areas, as well as isolated minor river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread along the coast of
Cuba and into the central and northwestern Bahamas later today and
along the east coast of Florida on Saturday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-07-31 08:57


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 310853
TCMAT4

HURRICANE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
0900 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND...NEW
PROVIDENCE...ELEUTHERA...ABACOS ISLANDS...BERRY ISLANDS...GRAND
BAHAMAS ISLAND...AND BIMINI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ENTIRE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN COASTLINES
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 73.3W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.
34 KT.......180NE 90SE 50SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 210SE 90SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 73.3W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 72.7W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 22.3N 75.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 50SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.7N 78.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 27.3N 79.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 28.8N 79.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 30.6N 79.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 36.5N 75.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 42.5N 69.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 73.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 31/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-07-31 05:48


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 310546
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
200 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...ISAIAS MOVING CLOSER TO GREAT INAGUA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 72.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches or warnings may be required for a portion of the Florida
peninsula on Friday.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located
near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 72.7 West. Isaias is moving
toward the northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a generally
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
for the next couple of days followed by turn toward the
north-northwest. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will
move near or over the Southeastern Bahamas overnight. Isaias is
forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Friday night and move near
or over the Northwestern Bahamas and near South Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible today, and Isaias is expected
to remain a hurricane for the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240
miles (390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds in the central and northwestern Bahamas. Storm surge will
raise water level by as much as 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels
in the southeastern Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread across
portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas
and Turks and Caicos tonight and early Friday. Hurricane
conditions are expected to begin in the central Bahamas Friday
morning and spread into the northwestern Bahamas beginning late
Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
the northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida
beginning Saturday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches.

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream
flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Hispaniola.

From Friday night through Monday:

South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

These rainfall amounts could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas. These swells will spread along the coast of
Cuba and into the central and northwestern Bahamas later today and
across the east coast of Florida on Saturday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-07-31 04:14


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 310356
TCMAT4

HURRICANE ISAIAS SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
0400 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...WHICH INCLUDE THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN
SALVADOR.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND...NEW
PROVIDENCE...ELEUTHERA...ABACOS ISLANDS...BERRY ISLANDS...GRAND
BAHAMAS ISLAND...AND BIMINI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ENTIRE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN COASTLINES
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON FRIDAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 72.2W AT 31/0400Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 40SE 20SW 80NW.
34 KT.......210NE 120SE 30SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 120SE 0SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 72.2W AT 31/0400Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 71.2W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.6N 73.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 90SE 30SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.5N 76.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 100SE 40SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.2N 77.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.7N 79.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.3N 79.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 30.0N 79.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 34.6N 76.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 42.0N 69.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 72.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 31/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-07-31 04:09


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 310406
TCDAT4

Hurricane Isaias Special Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1200 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter found that Isaias has become
a hurricane. Maximum flight-level winds so far were 87 kt at 850
mb, with believable SFMR values of at least 65 kt. A blend of
these values gives an initial wind speed of 70 kt. Some further
strengthening is likely over the next 24 hours before increasing
southwesterly shear could weaken the system. The intensity forecast
is modified upward from 5-10 kt through 48 hours and unchanged after
that time.

There are no changes to the previous track forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides across the Dominican Republic, northern
Haiti, Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.

2. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the southeastern Bahamas overnight, central
and northwestern Bahamas late Friday and Saturday, and Hurricane
Warnings are in effect for these areas. Preparations
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
Florida east coast beginning Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Watch
is in effect. While storm surge watches are not currently needed
for this area, they may be required on Friday if the forecast track
shifts closer to the coast. Heavy rains associated with Isaias may
begin to affect South Florida and east-Central Florida beginning
late Friday night, potentially resulting in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

4. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm
surge late this weekend from the northeastern Florida coast and
spreading northward along the remainder of the U.S. east coast
through early next week. The details of the track and intensity
forecast remain uncertain, and it is too soon to determine the
magnitude and location of these potential impacts, but interests
along the entire U.S. east coast should monitor the progress of
Isaias and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0400Z 20.4N 72.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 21.6N 73.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 23.5N 76.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 25.2N 77.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 26.7N 79.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 28.3N 79.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 30.0N 79.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 34.6N 76.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 42.0N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-07-31 04:02


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 310358
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Special Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1200 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 72.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for
the central and southeastern Bahamas, which include the Acklins,
Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, the Ragged
Islands, Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San
Salvador.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches or warnings may be required for a portion of the Florida
peninsula on Friday.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM EDT (0400 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 72.2 West. Isaias is
moving toward the northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a
generally northwestward motion with some decrease in forward
speed is expected for the next couple of days followed by turn
toward the north-northwest. On the forecast track, the center of
Isaias will move near or over the Southeastern Bahamas overnight.
Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Friday
night and move near or over the Northwestern Bahamas and near South
Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles
(390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds in the central and northwestern Bahamas. Storm surge will
raise water level by as much as 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels
in the southeastern Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread across
portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas
and Turks and Caicos tonight and early Friday. Hurricane
conditions are expected to begin in the central Bahamas Friday
morning and spread into the northwestern Bahamas beginning late
Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
the northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida
beginning Saturday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches.

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream
flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Hispaniola.

From Friday night through Monday:

South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

These rainfall amounts could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas. These swells will spread along the coast of Cuba and into
the central and northwestern Bahamas over the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-07-31 04:01


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 310400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 31.07.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 19.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.07.2020 0 13.5N 19.9W 1012 20
1200UTC 31.07.2020 12 14.2N 19.5W 1011 20
0000UTC 01.08.2020 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 71.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.07.2020 0 20.0N 71.3W 1002 44
1200UTC 31.07.2020 12 21.4N 73.6W 997 49
0000UTC 01.08.2020 24 23.0N 75.4W 992 57
1200UTC 01.08.2020 36 24.7N 77.1W 987 60
0000UTC 02.08.2020 48 25.9N 78.0W 980 61
1200UTC 02.08.2020 60 27.2N 78.4W 975 61
0000UTC 03.08.2020 72 28.6N 78.8W 968 69
1200UTC 03.08.2020 84 30.0N 78.9W 967 69
0000UTC 04.08.2020 96 31.8N 78.3W 959 77
1200UTC 04.08.2020 108 34.7N 77.1W 947 74
0000UTC 05.08.2020 120 38.8N 74.8W 964 70
1200UTC 05.08.2020 132 42.8N 71.6W 978 57
0000UTC 06.08.2020 144 45.9N 68.9W 996 33


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 310359

>

2020-07-31 04:01


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 310400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 31.07.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 19.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 31.07.2020 13.5N 19.9W WEAK
12UTC 31.07.2020 14.2N 19.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 71.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 31.07.2020 20.0N 71.3W WEAK
12UTC 31.07.2020 21.4N 73.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.08.2020 23.0N 75.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.08.2020 24.7N 77.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.08.2020 25.9N 78.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.08.2020 27.2N 78.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.08.2020 28.6N 78.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.08.2020 30.0N 78.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2020 31.8N 78.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.08.2020 34.7N 77.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.08.2020 38.8N 74.8W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 05.08.2020 42.8N 71.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 06.08.2020 45.9N 68.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 310359

>

2020-07-31 03:42


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 310340
TCUAT4

Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1140 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS ISAIAS IS A HURRICANE...

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the
tropical storm has strengthened to a hurricane. The maximum winds
are estimated to be 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for
the central and southeastern Bahamas.

A special advisory will be issued shortly.

SUMMARY OF 1140 PM EDT...0340 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 72.1W
ABOUT 70 MI... 110 KM ESE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-07-31 02:38


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 310235
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020

Isaias is beginning to form a small Central Dense Overcast, but
much of the deep convection is situated over the eastern portion of
the circulation. Water vapor imagery suggests that upper-level
outflow is modest to the northwest of the cyclone. The southern
portion of the system is still interacting with Hispaniola at this
time. Dvorak intensity estimates are 45 kt from SAB and 55 kt from
TAFB so the current maximum wind speed is 50 kt for this advisory.
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is headed for Isaias and
should soon provide a more precise intensity estimate.

Although southwesterly shear may limit strengthening of the system
during the next couple of days, the environment should still be
conducive enough for Isaias to become a hurricane in 24 to 36 hours.
The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and
a little above the model consensus.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/16 kt. There are no
basic changes to the track forecast or reasoning from the previous
advisory. Isaias should continue to move generally northwestward on
the southern and southwestern side of a subtropical high pressure
area for the next day or so. Then, as an approaching
mid-tropospheric trough erodes the high, a gradual turn toward the
north-northwest and north should occur. In 3 to 5 days, the trough
should cause Isaias to turn toward the north-northeast and northeast
and accelerate. The official track forecast is close to the
previous one and follows the latest simple and corrected dynamical
model consensus tracks.


Key Messages:

1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides across the Dominican Republic, northern
Haiti, Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.

2. Hurricane or tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surge
are expected in portions of the northwestern and central Bahamas
late Friday and Saturday, and Hurricane and Tropical Storm
Warnings, respectively, are in effect for these areas. Preparations
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread across portions
of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos and the
southeastern Bahamas tonight through Friday, and Tropical Storm
Warnings are in effect for these areas.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
Florida east coast beginning Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Watch
is in effect. While storm surge watches are not currently needed
for this area, they may be required on Friday if the forecast track
shifts closer to the coast. Heavy rains associated with Isaias may
begin to affect South Florida and east-Central Florida beginning
late Friday night, potentially resulting in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

4. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm
surge late this weekend from the northeastern Florida coast and
spreading northward along the remainder of the U.S. east coast
through early next week. The details of the track and intensity
forecast remain uncertain, and it is too soon to determine the
magnitude and location of these potential impacts, but interests
along the entire U.S. east coast should monitor the progress of
Isaias and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 20.5N 71.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 21.6N 73.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 23.5N 76.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 25.2N 77.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 26.7N 79.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 28.3N 79.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 30.0N 79.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 34.6N 76.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 42.0N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-07-31 02:36


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 310234
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020

...ISAIAS NEARING THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 71.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches or warnings may be required for a portion of the Florida
peninsula on Friday.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 71.9 West. Isaias is
moving toward the northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a
generally northwestward motion with some decrease in forward
speed is expected for the next couple of days followed by turn
toward the north-northwest. On the forecast track, the center of
Isaias will move near or over the Southeastern Bahamas by late
tonight. Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Friday
night and move near or over the Northwestern Bahamas and near South
Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Isaias is
forecast to become a hurricane by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center. An unofficial observing station on Big Ambergris
Cay in the Turks and Caicos Islands recently reported a sustained
wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and had a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h) a few
hours ago.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds in the central and northwestern Bahamas. Storm surge will
raise water level by as much as 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels
in the southeastern Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread across
portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas
and Turks and Caicos tonight and early Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin in the central Bahamas Friday
morning and spread into the northwestern Bahamas beginning late
Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
the northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida
beginning Saturday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches.

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream
flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Hispaniola.

From Friday night through Monday:

South Florida into east-Central Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

These rainfall amounts could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas. These swells will spread along the coast of Cuba and into
the central and northwestern Bahamas over the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-07-31 02:36


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 310234
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
0300 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND...NEW
PROVIDENCE...ELEUTHERA...ABACOS ISLANDS...BERRY ISLANDS...GRAND
BAHAMAS ISLAND...AND BIMINI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ENTIRE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN COASTLINES
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON FRIDAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 71.9W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......210NE 120SE 0SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 0SW 310NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 71.9W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 71.2W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.6N 73.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 90SE 30SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.5N 76.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...160NE 100SE 40SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.2N 77.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.7N 79.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.3N 79.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 30.0N 79.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 34.6N 76.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 42.0N 69.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 71.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 31/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-07-30 23:42


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 302340
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
800 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020

...ISAIAS NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 71.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ESE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning
for the Northwestern Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches or warnings may be required for a portion of the Florida
peninsula tonight or Friday.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 71.2 West. Isaias is
moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of
Isaias will move near the Southeastern Bahamas by late tonight.
Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Friday night and
move near or over the Northwestern Bahamas and near South Florida on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Isaias is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday or Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
flow in the central and northwest Bahamas. Storm surge will raise
water level by as much as 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels in the
southeastern Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread across
portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas
and Turks and Caicos within the warning area tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin in the central Bahamas Friday
morning and spread into the northwestern Bahamas beginning late
Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
the northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida
beginning Saturday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches,
with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches.

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream
flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands, eastern and
southwestern Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola.

Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect eastern
Florida over the weekend. This rain could result in isolated flash
and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained
areas.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas. These swells will spread along the coast of Cuba and into
the central and northwestern Bahamas over the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-07-30 20:57


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 302055
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020

Surface observations in the Dominican Republic indicate that the
poorly defined center of Isaias moved over the southeastern portion
of Hispaniola around 1600 UTC. There is currently a significant
concentration of convection near the mid-level center that is
located along the northern coast of the island, and recent
surface observations suggest that a new center may be forming
near the area of mid-level rotation seen in satellite imagery. The
advisory position has been placed between the previous estimated
center location and the mid-level center until it becomes more clear
that reformation has occurred. Earlier ASCAT data that arrived
shortly after the previous advisory and reconnaissance aircraft
data from this morning supported an intensity of 45-50 kt, and since
there has no significant degradation the overall organization since
that time, the initial intensity remains 50 kt. The central
pressure of 999 mb is based on a surface observation of 1001 mb and
25 kt of wind at Puerto Plata in the Dominican Republic.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 310/17 kt. The
track forecast reasoning has not changed since the previous
advisory. The tropical storm should continue on a general northwest
heading during the next 24 to 36 hours along the southern side of a
subtropical ridge. After that time, a trough moving into the
east-central United States should cause Isaias to turn
north-northwestward and northward as the western portion of the
ridge erodes. By early next week, Isaias is expected to turn
northeastward and accelerate ahead of the aforementioned trough.
The 1200 UTC dynamical model guidance has shifted eastward and now
that Isaias is expected to become a stronger and deeper cyclone,
that also favors a more eastward track. The updated official
forecast is a blend of the various consensus aids. Since the new
center is still in its formative stage some additional shifts in
the track may occur. In addition, strong winds and heavy rainfall
will extend far from the center.

Visible imagery has shown significant banding near the mid-level
circulation. Assuming that the center reforms near that feature and
moves away from Hispaniola tonight, strengthening is expected
during the next 24-36 hours and Isaias is now forecast to become a
hurricane. After that time, there are mixed signals regarding the
amount of southwesterly vertical wind shear and the models
generally do not show much additional strengthening. Therefore,
the NHC intensity forecast shows a leveling off in intensity after
48 h. It still needs to be stressed that that there is a higher
than usual amount of uncertainty in the intensity forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides across Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, northern Haiti, Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas.

2. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in
portions of the central and northwest Bahamas late Friday and
Saturday. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions will continue to
spread across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks
and Caicos and the southeast Bahamas tonight through Friday, and
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for these areas.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
Florida east coast beginning Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Watch
has been issued. While storm surge watches are not currently needed
for this area, they may be required tonight or early tomorrow if the
forecast track shifts closer to the coast. Heavy rains associated
with Isaias may begin to affect eastern Florida this weekend,
potentially resulting in isolated flash and urban flooding.

4. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm
surge this weekend along the Florida east coast and spreading
northward along the remainder of the U.S. east coast through early
next week. The details of the track and intensity forecast remain
uncertain and it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location
of these potential impacts, but interests along the entire U.S. east
coast should monitor the progress of Isaias and updates to the
forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 19.5N 70.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
12H 31/0600Z 20.8N 72.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 31/1800Z 22.7N 75.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 24.5N 77.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 26.1N 78.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 27.7N 79.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 29.2N 79.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 33.3N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 40.0N 71.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-07-30 20:56


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 302054
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020

...ISAIAS CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 70.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WNW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the northwest Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coast of
Florida from Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian Inlet.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet

The Tropical Storm Warnings for the central and northwest Bahamas
may be upgraded to Hurricane Warnings this evening or tonight.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches or warnings may be required for a portion of the Florida
peninsula tonight or Friday.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 70.6 West. Isaias is
moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h) and a
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of
Isaias will move near the Southeastern Bahamas by late tonight.
Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Friday night and
move near or over the Northwest Bahamas and near South Florida on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Isaias is
forecast to become a hurricane on Friday or Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations in the Dominican Republic is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
flow in the central and northwest Bahamas. Storm surge will raise
water level by as much as 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels in the
southeastern Bahamas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread across
portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas
and Turks and Caicos within the warning area tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin in the central Bahamas Friday
morning and spread into the northwestern Bahamas beginning late
Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
the central and northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida
beginning Saturday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches,
with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches.

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream
flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands, eastern and
southwestern Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola.

Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect eastern
Florida over the weekend. This rain could result in isolated flash
and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained
areas.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas. These swells will spread along the coast of Cuba and into
the central and northwestern Bahamas over the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-07-30 20:56


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 302054
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
2100 UTC THU JUL 30 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SEBASTIAN INLET.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ENTIRE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN COASTLINES
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND...NEW
PROVIDENCE...ELEUTHERA...ABACOS ISLANDS...BERRY ISLANDS...GRAND
BAHAMAS ISLAND...AND
BIMINI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
MAY BE UPGRADED TO HURRICANE WARNINGS THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 70.6W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......210NE 120SE 0SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 120SE 0SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 70.6W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 69.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.8N 72.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 90SE 30SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 22.7N 75.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...160NE 90SE 40SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.5N 77.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.1N 78.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 27.7N 79.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 29.2N 79.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 33.3N 78.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 40.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 70.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 31/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-07-30 17:56


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 301754
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
200 PM AST Thu Jul 30 2020

...ISAIAS BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
TO PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 69.8W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WNW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and
the U.S. Virgin Islands has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini

Interests in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system. Watches may be required for a portion of
the Florida peninsula later today.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 69.8 West. Isaias is
moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a west-
northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward
speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of Isaias will continue to move over Hispaniola
through this evening, and be near the Southeastern Bahamas by late
tonight or early Friday. Isaias is forecast to be near the Central
Bahamas Friday night and move near or over the Northwest Bahamas or
South Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight weakening is possible as Isaias continues
to move over Hispaniola today. Re-strengthening is forecast on
Friday and Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
primarily to the north of the center. A weather station at Punta
Cana near the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic reported
sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h)
within the past couple of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread across
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning
area, and are expected to spread over the southeastern Bahamas and
Turks and Caicos later today. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Central Bahamas beginning Friday morning and are
possible in the northwestern Bahamas beginning late Friday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches,
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches.

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream
flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands, eastern and
southwestern Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola.

Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect South Florida
Saturday morning. This rain could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-07-30 16:04


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 301603

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 30.07.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 20.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.07.2020 0 13.4N 20.7W 1012 19
0000UTC 31.07.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 68.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.07.2020 0 17.7N 68.1W 1004 38
0000UTC 31.07.2020 12 19.8N 71.3W 1003 44
1200UTC 31.07.2020 24 21.1N 73.9W 1000 47
0000UTC 01.08.2020 36 22.5N 76.0W 997 50
1200UTC 01.08.2020 48 23.8N 78.0W 996 48
0000UTC 02.08.2020 60 25.1N 79.1W 992 48
1200UTC 02.08.2020 72 26.5N 79.7W 991 49
0000UTC 03.08.2020 84 27.9N 80.0W 987 50
1200UTC 03.08.2020 96 29.6N 79.7W 980 59
0000UTC 04.08.2020 108 31.9N 78.3W 963 77
1200UTC 04.08.2020 120 35.5N 76.2W 955 72
0000UTC 05.08.2020 132 39.5N 72.9W 965 71
1200UTC 05.08.2020 144 43.3N 68.4W 978 59

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.1N 131.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.08.2020 36 13.2N 132.6W 1008 26
1200UTC 01.08.2020 48 13.2N 133.8W 1008 27
0000UTC 02.08.2020 60 12.8N 135.0W 1009 21
1200UTC 02.08.2020 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 36.1N 50.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.08.2020 96 35.9N 48.9W 1014 31
0000UTC 04.08.2020 108 35.5N 46.8W 1016 27
1200UTC 04.08.2020 120 35.4N 45.3W 1016 25
0000UTC 05.08.2020 132 35.3N 43.6W 1017 19
1200UTC 05.08.2020 144 34.8N 41.3W 1014 22


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 301602

>

2020-07-30 16:03


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 301603

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 30.07.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 20.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.07.2020 13.4N 20.7W WEAK
00UTC 31.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 68.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.07.2020 17.7N 68.1W WEAK
00UTC 31.07.2020 19.8N 71.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.07.2020 21.1N 73.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.08.2020 22.5N 76.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.08.2020 23.8N 78.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.08.2020 25.1N 79.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.08.2020 26.5N 79.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.08.2020 27.9N 80.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2020 29.6N 79.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.08.2020 31.9N 78.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 04.08.2020 35.5N 76.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.08.2020 39.5N 72.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.08.2020 43.3N 68.4W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.1N 131.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.08.2020 13.2N 132.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.08.2020 13.2N 133.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.08.2020 12.8N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 36.1N 50.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.08.2020 35.9N 48.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 04.08.2020 35.5N 46.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2020 35.4N 45.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2020 35.3N 43.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.08.2020 34.8N 41.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 301602

>

2020-07-30 14:53


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 301451
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020

The satellite presentation of Isaias has improved over the past 24
hours with a concentrated area of deep convection occurring near
and to the northeast of the low-level center. Radar imagery from
Puerto Rico has shown a mid-level circulation that moved over the
Mona passage and is now along the northern coast of Hispaniola.
Surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft, however, continue to place the center near
the southeastern coast of Hispaniola. It is possible that a new
center will re-form along the northern coast of Hispaniola as the
system interacts with high terrain of that island later today or
tonight. The initial intensity remains 50 kt, and is based on the
earlier Doppler radar data and observations along the southern coast
of Puerto Rico.

Isaias is moving northwestward or 310/16 kt. A high pressure ridge
over the western Atlantic should steer Isaias on a west-
northwestward to northwestward heading over the next couple of days,
but the likelihood of a center re-formation during the next 12-18
hours means that some adjustments to the track and motion are
possible. By late Friday, a mid-latitude trough moving into the
east-central United States is expected to weaken the western portion
of the ridge. This pattern should cause the cyclone to turn
northwestward to north-northwestward on Saturday when it is near
the northwestern Bahamas and South Florida. As the trough slides
eastward over the United States, this should steer Isaias northward
and northeastward early next week. Although the bulk of the track
guidance agrees on this overall scenario, the confidence in the
track forecast remains lower than usual due to the expected land
interaction and possible center reformation in the short term. The
new NHC track forecast is a blend of the HFIP corrected consensus
and the TCVA multi-model consensus, and is similar to the previous
advisory.

The intensity forecast remains challenging. The structure of the
storm is likely to be disrupted by its passage near or over
Hispaniola today, and some weakening is likely. Once the system
moves away from the Greater Antilles gradual strengthening is
anticipated. The global models and the SHIPS guidance suggest that
Isaias will encounter an area of moderate southwesterly shear over
the weekend, and the NHC intensity forecast is again leveled off at
that time. There are models that continue to suggest Isaias could
become a hurricane when it is near the U.S., but given the continued
uncertainty, the NHC intensity forecast remains near the intensity
consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides across Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.
Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect South Florida
Saturday morning, potentially resulting in isolated flash and urban
flooding.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through early afternoon and will
spread across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks
and Caicos and the Bahamas later today through Friday, and Tropical
Storm Warnings are in effect for these areas. Do not focus on the
details of the track forecast, as rainfall and wind hazards will
extend far from the center of the system.

3. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm
surge along portions of the U.S. east coast beginning this weekend
in Florida and spreading northward to the Carolinas and southern
mid-Atlantic states early next week. Due to Isaias interacting with
Hispaniola, the details of the track and intensity forecast remain
uncertain and it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location
of these potential impacts. Interests in these areas should monitor
the progress of Isaias and updates to the forecast. Tropical storm
or hurricane watches could be issued for portions of South Florida
later today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 18.1N 68.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 19.7N 71.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 31/1200Z 21.4N 74.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 01/0000Z 23.0N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 24.6N 78.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 26.2N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 28.0N 79.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 31.5N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 37.5N 73.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-07-30 14:52


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 301450
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020

...ISAIAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO...
....HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING OVER THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 68.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini

Interests in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system. Watches may be required for a portion of
the Florida peninsula later today.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 68.9 West. Isaias is
moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a west-
northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward
speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of Isaias will move over Hispaniola today and move
near the Southeastern Bahamas by tonight or early Friday. Isaias is
forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Friday night and approach
the Northwest Bahamas or southern Florida Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight weakening is possible as Isaias moves over Hispaniola
today. Re-strengthening is forecast on Friday and Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
primarily to the north of the center. Tropical-storm-force winds are
occuring along the southern coast of Puerto Rico. A Weatherflow
station at Las Mareas, Puerto Rico, reported sustained winds of 45
mph (72 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). A wind gust of 60
mph (96 km/h) was recently reported at Punta Cana on the eastern
tip of the Dominican Republic.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of
the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through early afternoon.
These conditions are spreading over portions of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti within the warning area, and are expected to
spread over the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos later
today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Central
Bahamas beginning Friday morning and are possible in the
northwestern Bahamas beginning late Friday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and northern Haiti: 4 to 8 inches,
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches.

Bahamas, Turks and Caicos: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as river flooding. Urban and small stream
flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands, eastern and
southwestern Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola.

Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect South Florida
Saturday morning. This rain could result in isolated flash and urban
flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-07-30 14:52


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 301450
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
1500 UTC THU JUL 30 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ENTIRE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN COASTLINES
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND...NEW
PROVIDENCE...ELEUTHERA...ABACOS ISLANDS...BERRY ISLANDS...GRAND
BAHAMAS ISLAND...AND
BIMINI

INTERESTS IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 68.9W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......270NE 90SE 0SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 0SE 0SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 68.9W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 68.5W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 19.7N 71.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...210NE 90SE 0SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.4N 74.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 90SE 0SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.0N 76.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.6N 78.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.2N 79.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.0N 79.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 31.5N 79.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 37.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 68.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 30/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-07-30 11:55


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 301153
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
800 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020

...ISAIAS CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND HIGH WINDS
OVER PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 68.5W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM W OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini

Interests in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 68.5 West. Isaias is
moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a
west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in
forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Isaias will move over Hispaniola later
today and near the Southeastern Bahamas by tonight or early Friday.
Isaias is forecast to be near the Central Bahamas Friday night and
approach the Northwest Bahamas or southern Florida Friday night and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated until landfall in
Dominican Republic later today, with re-strengthening forecast on
Friday and Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km)
from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds are occuring along the
southern coast of Puerto Rico. A Weatherflow station in Yabucoa
Tanque de Agua reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a
gust to 56 mph (91 km/h). A Weatherflow station at Las Mareas
reported sustained winds of 43 mph (69 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph
(87 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through this
morning or early afternoon. These conditions are forecast to reach
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning
area later this morning, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks
and Caicos this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in the Central Bahamas beginning Friday morning and are possible in
the northwestern Bahamas beginning late Friday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches.

Puerto Rico and northern Haiti: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
10 inches.

Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding beginning
today. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S.
Virgin Islands, eastern Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-07-30 08:54


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 300852
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020

Isaias is sending some mixed signals tonight. The 1-min rapid
scan data from GOES-16 indicates that the low-level center is likely
displaced west of a very intense burst of deep convection on the
northeastern side of the circulation. However, the satellite data
also shows increased banding features overnight and a more
organized central cloud pattern, with recent hints that perhaps a
low-level center is trying to re-form closer to the convection.
Radar observations from San Juan show 60-65 kt Doppler wind
velocities during the past few hours near 5000 ft, so the initial
wind speed is raised to 50 kt.

Model forecasts are showing a complex evolution of the tropical
cyclone during the next day or two. There is good agreement that
Isaias will move across Hispaniola later today, and its low-level
center will likely become disorganized over the high terrain.
However, the strong burst of convection currently near Puerto Rico
is associated with a mid-level circulation, which should pass
along the north coast of Hispaniola later today. Most of the model
guidance suggest that this feature will cause the re-development of
a surface center over the northern part of the broader system while
the mid-level circulation moves close to the southeastern Bahamas.
Afterward, the cyclone would then move northwestward until the
weekend, and gradually turn northward and northeastward close to the
U.S. East Coast into early next week ahead of a mid-latitude trough.
The official track forecast is a little to the east of the previous
one and close to the NOAA corrected dynamical model consensus. It
should be noted that further adjustments to the forecast tracks are
indeed possible, especially after Isaias moves north of Hispaniola.

The intensity forecast is quite tricky. In the short term, Isaias
is expected to move across Hispaniola, as the storm's interaction
with the mountainous island should cause some weakening and
disruption to the circulation. However, as mentioned before, the
models suggest that a new center could form, and the
environmental conditions would support gradual intensification.
The intensity models have been trending higher, and the official
forecast is nudged upward accordingly, now showing a peak
intensity of 60 kt when the storm is near the coast of Florida and
the Southeast U.S. Coast. It should be noted that there are models
that show hurricane strength near the U.S. but, given the large
amount of uncertainty, it is preferred to stay on the
conservative side for now. We should have a better idea of how
strong Isaias will become near the U.S. after reconnaissance
aircraft sample the storm and after it passes Hispaniola later
today.


Key Messages:

1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and over the Bahamas.

2. Tropical storm conditions are likely across portions of the
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through this morning and will
spread westward to portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and
the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas later today and Friday.
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for these areas. Do not focus
on the details of the track forecast, as rainfall and wind hazards
will extend far from the center of the system.

3. While this system could bring some rainfall and wind impacts to
portions of Cuba and Florida later this week and this weekend, it
is too soon to determine the location or magnitude of those impacts.
Interests there should monitor the progress of this system and
updates to the forecast over the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 17.2N 67.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 18.8N 70.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 31/0600Z 20.6N 72.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 31/1800Z 22.3N 75.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 24.0N 77.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 25.5N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 27.3N 80.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 31.0N 80.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 37.0N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake/Cangialosi

>

2020-07-30 08:49


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 300847
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020

...ISAIAS CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND HIGH WINDS OVER PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 67.9W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM WSW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, St.
Maarten, Saba and St. Eustatius has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini

Interests in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 67.9 West. Isaias is
moving toward the northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a
west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in
forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Isaias will move over Hispaniola late
today and near the Southeastern Bahamas by early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is anticipated until landfall in
Dominican Republic later today, with re-strengthening forecast on
Friday and Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km)
from the center. A Weatherflow station in Yabucoa Tanque de Agua
reported sustained winds of 52 mph (83 km/h) with a gust to 59 mph
(94 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of
the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico overnight. These conditions are forecast to reach portions of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area by this
morning, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos this
afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Central
Bahamas beginning Friday morning and are possible in the
northwestern Bahamas beginning late Friday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches.

Puerto Rico and northern Haiti: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum
totals of 8 inches.

Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
10 inches.

Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding beginning
today. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S.
Virgin Islands, eastern Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias will be affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today. These
swells are forecast to reach the north coast of the Dominican
Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas
this morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-07-30 08:48


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 300846
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
0900 UTC THU JUL 30 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST.
MAARTEN...SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ENTIRE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN COASTLINES
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND...NEW
PROVIDENCE...ELEUTHERA...ABACOS ISLANDS...BERRY ISLANDS...GRAND
BAHAMAS ISLAND...AND BIMINI

INTERESTS IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 67.9W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......360NE 60SE 0SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 0SE 0SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 67.9W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 67.2W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.8N 70.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...240NE 90SE 0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.6N 72.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 90SE 0SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 22.3N 75.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.0N 77.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.5N 79.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 27.3N 80.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 31.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 37.0N 74.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 67.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 30/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-07-30 05:39


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 300537
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
200 AM AST Thu Jul 30 2020

...STRONG RAIN BANDS FROM ISAIAS APPROACHING PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 67.2W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini

Interests in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 67.2 West. Isaias is
moving toward the northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a
west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in
forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Isaias will move over Hispaniola late
today and near the Southeastern Bahamas by early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is likely when the center moves over
Hispaniola with some re-strengthening expected by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center. A Weatherflow station on
Culebra recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) with
gusts to 53 mph (85 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of
the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico overnight. These conditions are forecast to reach portions of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area by this
morning, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos this
afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Central
Bahamas beginning Friday morning and are possible in the
northwestern Bahamas beginning late Friday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Across the Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches.

Across the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Turks and Caicos: 3
to 6 inches.

Across Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and
eastern Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches.

These rainfall amounts may lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding beginning
today. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S.
Virgin Islands, eastern Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias will be affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through today.
These swells are forecast to reach the north coast of the Dominican
Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas
this morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-07-30 03:03


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 300301
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM AST Wed Jul 29 2020

Observations from recent scatterometer passes over the system show
that it now has a sufficiently well-defined center to be
designated as a tropical cyclone. The current intensity is
estimated to be 45 kt, but these winds are currently occurring over
the Atlantic waters well to the north and northeast of the center.
Since the cyclone is expected to move over Hispaniola on Thursday
some weakening is likely within the next 24 hours. However since
Isaias has such a broad wind field, the weakening will probably not
be as significant as in a typical tropical cyclone with a small
radius of maximum winds. Also, a re-formation of the center to the
north of Hispaniola may occur. Later in the forecast period some
strengthening is likely, although this may be offset by
southwesterly wind shear on the order of 20 kt in 2-3 days. The
official forecast is close to the intensity model consensus but
well below the latest LGEM guidance.

The scatterometer data show that the center of the system is south
of the previously estimated track, so there is a lot of uncertainty
in the initial motion estimate of 285/17 kt. Isaias should move on
a west-northwestward to northwestward track on the southern and
southwestern side of a mid-tropospheric ridge. In 2-3 days,
the system is expected to turn north-northwestward due to a
weakness in the ridge and an approaching trough. Later in the
forecast period, the trough should cause Isaias to turn toward the
northeast. The official track forecast is a little to the east of
the previous one and a little west of the simple and corrected
dynamical model consensus tracks. It should be noted that further
adjustments to the forecast tracks are indeed possible, especially
after Isaias moves north of Hispaniola.


Key Messages:

1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and over the southeastern
Bahamas.

2. Tropical storm conditions are likely across portions of the
the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through tonight and will spread
westward to portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the
southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos and the Central Bahamas
on Thursday and Friday. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for
these areas. Do not focus on the details of the track forecast, as
rainfall and wind hazards will extend far from the center of the
system.

3. While this system could bring some rainfall and wind impacts to
portions of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and Florida later this
week and this weekend, it is too soon to determine the location or
magnitude of those impacts. Interests there should monitor the
progress of this system and updates to the forecast over the next
few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 15.8N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 17.6N 69.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 19.4N 72.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 31/1200Z 21.4N 74.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 01/0000Z 22.9N 77.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 24.8N 79.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 26.6N 80.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 03/0000Z 30.0N 80.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 04/0000Z 35.0N 77.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-07-30 02:51


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 300248
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM AST Wed Jul 29 2020

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS (PRONOUNCED
ees-ah-EE-ahs)...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 67.0W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Anguilla.

The government of the Bahamas has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch
for the Central Bahamas to a Tropical Storm Warning and has issued a
Tropical Storm Watch for the Northwestern Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini

Interests in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 67.0 West. Isaias is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and a
west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in
forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Isaias will move over Hispaniola on
Thursday and near the Southeastern Bahamas by early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is likely when the center moves over Hispaniola
with some strengthening expected by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of
the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico through tonight. These conditions are forecast to reach
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area
by late tonight or early Thursday, and the southeastern Bahamas and
Turks and Caicos Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Central Bahamas beginning Friday morning and are
possible in the northwestern Bahamas beginning late Friday.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Across the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Turks and Caicos: 3
to 6 inches.

Across Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and
eastern Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches.

Across the southeastern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches.

These rainfall amounts may lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding beginning
today. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S.
Virgin Islands, eastern Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias will be affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
Thursday. These swells are forecast to reach the north coast of
the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the
southeastern Bahamas tonight or Thursday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-07-30 02:51


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 300248
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
0300 UTC THU JUL 30 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ANGUILLA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ENTIRE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN COASTLINES
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND...NEW
PROVIDENCE...ELEUTHERA...ABACOS ISLANDS...BERRY ISLANDS...GRAND
BAHAMAS ISLAND...AND BIMINI

INTERESTS IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 67.0W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......300NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 67.0W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 66.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.6N 69.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...240NE 40SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 19.4N 72.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...180NE 40SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.4N 74.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 40SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.9N 77.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 50SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.8N 79.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.6N 80.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 30.0N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 35.0N 77.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 67.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 30/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-07-29 23:38


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 292336
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
800 PM AST Wed Jul 29 2020

...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 66.3W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Anguilla
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Cuba should monitor the
progress of this system.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.0 North, longitude 66.3 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion with a
reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the system will continue to pass south of Puerto
Rico tonight, near or over Hispaniola on Thursday, near eastern Cuba
and the southeastern Bahamas on Friday, and approach the
northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some increase in strength is forecast through tonight, with
weakening likely on Thursday due to land interaction. Some
restrengthening is possible by this weekend.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
primarily to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of
the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico through tonight. These conditions are forecast to reach
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area
by late tonight or early Thursday, and the southeastern Bahamas and
Turks and Caicos Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area on Friday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce the following
rain accumulations:

Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin
Islands: 3 to 6 inches.

Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
10 inches.

Across the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and Turks and Caicos:
3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches.

Across the Inagua Islands and southeastern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches.

These rainfall amounts may lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding beginning
today. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S.
Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will be
affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico through Thursday. These swells are forecast to
reach the north coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and
Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight or Thursday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-07-29 20:46


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 292044
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM AST Wed Jul 29 2020

Deep convection has continued to increase in association with the
disturbance since the previous advisory. More recently, a band has
developed over the southwestern portion of the broad circulation
and it appears that the system may be closer to acquiring a
well-defined center. Earlier ASCAT data that arrived shortly after
the release of the previous advisory revealed a large area of 35-40
kt winds well to the north of the vorticity maximum. This
supports maintaining the initial intensity of 40 kt.

The estimated motion remains a brisk 290/20 kt. A strong
subtropical ridge that extends westward over the western Atlantic
should continue to steer the system west-northwestward over the next
couple of days, bringing the system near or over Hispaniola late
tonight and Thursday. A mid-latitude trough moving into the central
United States on Friday is foreast to weaken the western portion of
the ridge which should cause a reduction in the forward speed of the
system and a turn toward the northwest and north later in the
forecast period. The latest iterations of the dynamical models have
trended toward a more eastward solution, taking the system near or
just east of the Florida peninsula. Since the system still lacks a
well-defined center it is not surprising to see these
inconsistencies in the model runs. As a result, the NHC forecast
has been shifted eastward, but it remains to the west of the latest
multi-model consensus aids out of respect for continuity and the
continued possibility of further model shifts.

The system is still forecast to become a tropical storm before
reaching Hispaniola, and some slight strengthening could occur
before landfall Thursday morning. Some weakening is likely as the
system moves over that island. The system is likely to take some
time to recover after its passage over land, and given the forecast
for at least moderate south to southwesterly shear, only
gradual strengthening is indicated at that time. As mentioned
above, some of the global models are now showing a track farther
away from eastern Cuba and east of Florida, and if that occurs the
NHC intensity forecast could be somewhat conservative. Interests
in the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida should continue to monitor
forecasts as changes to both the track and intensity are likely.

Key Messages:

1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will produce heavy
rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides
across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and over the
Inagua Islands into the southeastern Bahamas.

2. Tropical storm conditions are likely across portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
tonight and will spread westward to portions of the Dominican
Republic, Haiti, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos
on Thursday and Thursday night. Tropical Storm Warnings are in
effect for these areas. Do not focus on the details of the track
forecast, as rainfall and wind hazards will extend far from the
center of the system.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain more uncertain than usual since the system does not have a
well-defined center and it is expected to move near or over portions
of the Greater Antilles later this week and move near or over
Florida this weekend. While this system could bring some rainfall
and wind impacts to portions of Cuba, the central and northwest
Bahamas, and Florida later this week and this weekend, it is too
soon to determine the location or magnitude of those impacts.
Interests there should monitor the progress of this system and
updates to the forecast over the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 16.4N 65.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 30/0600Z 17.5N 68.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 30/1800Z 19.2N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 31/0600Z 20.9N 74.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 31/1800Z 22.3N 76.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 23.6N 78.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 25.5N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 02/1800Z 28.6N 82.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 03/1800Z 31.5N 82.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-07-29 20:44


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 292042
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM AST Wed Jul 29 2020

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 65.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Anguilla
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Cuba should monitor the
progress of this system.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.4 North, longitude 65.6 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion with
a reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the system will pass south of Puerto Rico later
tonight, near or over Hispaniola on Thursday, near eastern Cuba
and the southeastern Bahamas on Friday, and approach the
northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some increase in strength is forecast through tonight, with
weakening likely on Thursday due to land interaction. Some
restrengthening is possible by this weekend.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
primarily to the north of the center. A wind gust of 52 mph (83
km/h) was recently reported at St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin
Islands.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of
the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico through tonight. These conditions are forecast to reach
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area
by late tonight or early Thursday, and the southeastern Bahamas and
Turks and Caicos Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area on Friday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce the following
rain accumulations:

Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin
Islands: 3 to 6 inches.

Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
10 inches.

Across the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and Turks and Caicos:
3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches.

Across the Inagua Islands and southeastern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches.

These rainfall amounts may lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding beginning
today. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S.
Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will be
affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico through Thursday. These swells are forecast to
reach the north coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and
Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight or Thursday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-07-29 20:43


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 292041
TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
2100 UTC WED JUL 29 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANGUILLA
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ENTIRE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN COASTLINES
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG
CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 65.6W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......240NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 65.6W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 64.9W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.5N 68.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...210NE 40SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 19.2N 71.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...180NE 40SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.9N 74.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 40SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 22.3N 76.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 50SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.6N 78.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.5N 80.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 28.6N 82.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 31.5N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 65.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 30/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-07-29 17:41


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 291739
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
200 PM AST Wed Jul 29 2020

...DISTURBANCE BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 64.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning along the south coast of the Dominican Republic west
of Cabo Caucedo to the border with Haiti.

The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Antigua and Barbuda.

The government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Martinique and Guadeloupe.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla
* St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Cuba should monitor the
progress of this system.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.2 North, longitude 64.7 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion with a
reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the system will move near or just south of
Puerto Rico later today and tonight, near or over Hispaniola on
Thursday, and near or over eastern Cuba on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some increase in strength is forecast through tonight, with
weakening likely on Thursday due to land interaction. Some
restrengthening is possible by this weekend. A wind gust of 44
mph (71 km/h) was recently reported at the Luis Munoz Marin
International Airport in San Juan. A wind gust of 44 mph mph (71
km/h) was also reported at St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands
within the past few hours. In St. Maarten, a wind gust to 51 mph
(81 km/h) was observed late this morning.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form
later today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
primarily to the north and northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are moving across portions of the
Leeward Islands and will spread across the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico this afternoon through Thursday morning.
These conditions are forecast to reach portions of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti within the warning area early Thursday, and the
southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Thursday afternoon.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas on
Thursday and Friday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin
Islands: 3 to 6 inches.

Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
10 inches.

Across the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and Turks and Caicos:
3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches.

Across the Inagua Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated totals of 12
inches.

These rainfall amounts may lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding beginning
today. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S.
Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will be
affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico during the next day or two. These swells are forecast to
reach the north coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and
Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight or Thursday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-07-29 14:53


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 291450
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM AST Wed Jul 29 2020

Surface observations from the Lesser Antilles show that the broader
circulation of the disturbance has become slightly better defined
but a recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was still
unable to find a well-defined circulation. Therefore, the system
has not yet become a tropical cyclone. The aircraft measured peak
flight-level winds of 46 kt and several SFMR winds of around 35 kt,
so the initial intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory.

The system continues moving briskly west-northwestward at 290/20 kt.
The forecast reasoning remains unchanged as a ridge to the north of
the system is expected to steer the disturbance west-northwestward
during the next couple of days. This motion should bring the system
near or over Hispaniola on Thursday and near eastern Cuba Thursday
night and Friday. The ridge is forecast to weaken by the weekend
which should cause a reduction in forward speed. It still must be
stressed that since the system lacks a well-defined center and
remains in its formative stage, uncertainty in the specifics of the
track forecast remain high in both the short and longer range. The
latest NHC track foreast has been nudged slightly south of the
previous advisory and lies between the latest ECMWF solution and the
various consensus aids.

Deep convection has consolidated and there is some evidence of
banding over the northern and western portions of the large
circulation. As a result, the system is still expected to become a
tropical storm later today or tonight. Some additional
intensification is then possible before the system reaches
Hispaniola on Thursday, but weakening is likely to occur while it
interacts with land. After that time, the system's close proximity
to eastern Cuba and an expected increase in southwesterly shear are
likely to inhibit significant re-strengthening. The latest NHC
wind speed forecast has been lowered from the previous advisory at
72-120 h. Given the expected land interaction and less than ideal
upper-level environment it is best to remain conservative at this
time.

Interests in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida should
continue to monitor forecasts as changes to both the track and
intensity are likely.

Key Messages:

1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will produce heavy rains and
potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across
the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
the Dominican Republic.

2. Tropical storm conditions are likely across portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today and will
spread westward to portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and
the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos on Thursday and
Thursday night. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for these
areas. Do not focus on the details of the track forecast, as
rainfall and wind hazards will extend far from the center of the
system.

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain more uncertain than usual since the system does not have a
well-defined center and it is expected to move near or over portions
of the Greater Antilles later this week. However, this system could
bring some rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Cuba, the
central and northwest Bahamas, and Florida later this week and this
weekend. Interests there should monitor its progress and updates to
the forecast over the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 15.8N 63.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 30/0000Z 16.9N 66.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 30/1200Z 18.5N 69.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 19.9N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/1200Z 21.4N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR COAST
60H 01/0000Z 22.7N 78.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 01/1200Z 23.8N 80.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 26.3N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 29.0N 83.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-07-29 14:52


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 291449
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 AM AST Wed Jul 29 2020

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 63.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. The
government of the Bahamas has also issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for the central Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla
* Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo eastward to Cabo Engano and
then westward along the northern coast to the Dominican
Republic/Haiti border
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from the southern Haiti border eastward to
Cabo Caucedo
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Cuba should monitor the
progress of this system.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 15.8 North, longitude 63.7 West. The system is moving
toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general
motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected over the
next few days. On the forecast track, the system will move near
or just south of Puerto Rico later today and tonight, near or over
Hispaniola on Thursday, and near or over eastern Cuba on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some increase in strength is forecast through tonight, with
weakening likely on Thursday due to land interaction. Some
restrengthening is possible by this weekend.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form
later today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
primarily to the north and northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are moving across portions of the
Leeward Islands and will spread across the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico this afternoon through Thursday morning.
These conditions are forecast to reach portions of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti within the warning area early Thursday, and the
southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Thursday afternoon.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas on
Thursday and Friday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:

Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin
Islands: 3 to 6 inches.

Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
10 inches.

Across the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and Turks and Caicos:
3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches.

Across the Inagua Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated totals of 12
inches.

These rainfall amounts may lead to life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding beginning
today. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S.
Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will be
affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico during the next day or two. These swells are forecast to
reach the north coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and
Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight or Thursday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-07-29 14:52


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 291448
TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
1500 UTC WED JUL 29 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS AS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THE
GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* GUADELOUPE...MARTINIQUE...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CAUCEDO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO AND
THEN WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO
CABO CAUCEDO
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 63.7W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......240NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 63.7W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 62.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.9N 66.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...210NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.5N 69.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 40SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 19.9N 73.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 40SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.4N 76.0W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 40SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.7N 78.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.8N 80.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 26.3N 82.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 29.0N 83.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 63.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-07-29 11:45


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 291143
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
800 AM AST Wed Jul 29 2020

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 62.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla
* Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo eastward to Cabo Engano and
then westward along the northern coast to the Dominican
Republic/Haiti border
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from the southern Haiti border eastward to
Cabo Caucedo
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas

Interests in the central and northwestern Bahamas and Cuba should
monitor the progress of this system.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.1 North, longitude 62.1 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion with
some reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days.
On the forecast track, the system will move near or over Puerto Rico
tonight, near or over Hispaniola on Thursday, and near or over the
southeastern Bahamas on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some increase in strength is forecast today, with weakening
likely on Thursday due to land interaction, and some restrengthening
possible late week.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form
later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
primarily to the north and northeast of the center. A wind gust of
46 mph (74 km/h) was recently reported on St. Kitts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO
header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are moving across portions of the
Leeward Islands and will spread across the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this afternoon through
Thursday morning. These conditions are forecast to reach portions
of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area early
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas
on Thursday.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce the
following rain accumulations:

Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin
Islands: 3 to 6 inches.

Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
10 inches.

Across the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti and the Turks and
Caicos: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches.

Across the Inagua Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated totals of
12 inches.

These rainfall amounts could lead to life threatening flash flooding
and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will be
affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico during the next day or two. These swells are forecast to
reach the north coast of the Dominican Republic and the Turks and
Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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