Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for EPSILON-20
in Canada, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, Iceland, Bermuda, Ireland, United Kingdom,

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 260236
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Epsilon Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
300 AM GMT Mon Oct 26 2020

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that Epsilon no longer
has the structure of a tropical cyclone. The low-level circulation
is stretched out along a north-south axis, with an area of lighter
winds noted near and north of the ill-defined center. Furthermore,
infrared cloud tops have warmed over the past several hours as
convection wanes near the center. Therefore, Epsilon has been
declared a post-tropical cyclone, and this will be the last NHC
advisory for the system.

A partial 22Z ASCAT-A overpass showed at least 55-kt winds in the
southern semicircle of the cyclone, which supports keeping the
initial intensity at 60 kt. Post-tropical Epsilon is firmly embedded
in the mid-latitude westerlies, and the cyclone will continue racing
northeastward at around 35-40 kt for the next day or so. The cyclone
will remain a very powerful and dangerous storm until it is absorbed
by another large extratropical low pressure system over the
northeastern Atlantic. The global models remain in very good
agreement with this scenario, and no notable changes were made to
the official NHC forecast.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 48.6N 38.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 26/1200Z 52.1N 30.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 27/0000Z 57.0N 24.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 260234
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Epsilon Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
300 AM GMT Mon Oct 26 2020

...EPSILON BECOMES A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC...
...THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON EPSILON...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...48.6N 38.8W
ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM ENE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 46 MPH...74 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Epsilon was located near latitude 48.6 North, longitude 38.8 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 46 mph
(74 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through
Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day
or so before the post-tropical cyclone is absorbed by a large
extratropical low pressure system on Monday night or early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 450 miles (720 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, portions of the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through Monday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Epsilon. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 260233
TCMAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
0300 UTC MON OCT 26 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 48.6N 38.8W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 40 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 180SE 180SW 30NW.
34 KT.......240NE 390SE 360SW 330NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 720SE 900SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 48.6N 38.8W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 47.3N 41.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 52.1N 30.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 150SE 150SW 60NW.
34 KT...270NE 420SE 420SW 390NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 57.0N 24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT...300NE 450SE 450SW 420NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 48.6N 38.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON EPSILON. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 252036
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
900 PM GMT Sun Oct 25 2020

Epsilon is nearly extratropical, with late morning scatterometer
data showing that the circulation has become stretched out as the
cyclone interacts with a high-latitude low pressure system and an
associated mid- upper-level trough to its north. The main reason
that the cyclone is still classifiable as a tropical cyclone is
persistent deep convection very near the center of circulation.
Based on the scatterometer data showing an area of peak winds of
56 kt, the initial intensity is being lowered to 60 kt.

What remains of the trapped tropical airmass near the center of the
cyclone supporting the deep convection should mix out over the next
few hours, as Epsilon moves over cold waters of about 15 degrees C
and continues to wrap cooler and stable air into its circulation.
The post-tropical cyclone will remain large and powerful until it is
absorbed by another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic
in about 24-36 h.

Epsilon is racing east-northeastward at around 40 kt, embedded
within the mid-latitude westerlies. A fast east-northeastward or
northeastward motion is expected to continue until the system gets
absorbed by the aforementioned high-latitude low pressure system.
The latest NHC forecast track is essentially an update of the
previous one and remains in the middle of the tightly clustered
consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 46.2N 44.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 49.4N 35.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 26/1800Z 54.4N 26.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 252035
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
2100 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.2N 44.3W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 40 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT.......100NE 180SE 160SW 90NW.
34 KT.......230NE 320SE 310SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 670SE 850SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.2N 44.3W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.0N 46.9W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 49.4N 35.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 160SW 130NW.
34 KT...270NE 350SE 370SW 350NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 54.4N 26.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 80SE 160SW 140NW.
34 KT...300NE 400SE 420SW 400NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.2N 44.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 251551 CCA
TCMAT2

HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
1500 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020

CORRECTED TO ADD HURRICANE WIND RADII

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.3N 49.4W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 30 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 140SE 70SW 30NW.
34 KT.......200NE 300SE 330SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 550SE 680SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.3N 49.4W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.2N 51.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 47.0N 41.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 130SE 110SW 60NW.
34 KT...260NE 320SE 360SW 330NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 51.5N 31.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 110SE 140SW 110NW.
34 KT...300NE 400SE 400SW 400NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 56.4N 23.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 110SE 140SW 110NW.
34 KT...300NE 400SE 400SW 400NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.3N 49.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 251556 CCA
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 27...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 25 2020

Corrected hurricane-force wind radii

...EPSILON RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SOON...
...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.3N 49.4W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 44.3 North, longitude 49.4 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the east-northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h). A faster
east-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected later
tonight through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today and Epsilon is
forecast to become a large and powerful extratropical cyclone by
tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 380 miles
(610 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, portions of the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 251458
TCDAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 25 2020

Epsilon continues its extratropical transition, as the cloud tops
near the center of circulation are warming while the cloud pattern
continues to expand over the northern portion of the circulation.
The initial intensity is being held at 65 kt for this advisory
based on early morning ASCAT data. Partial data from a more recent
scatterometer pass also suggested this intensity.

The cyclone is now moving over waters of only 17 degrees C and the
waters ahead of the system are even cooler than that. Epsilon
is also interacting with a baroclinic zone as evidenced by a large
area of cool and stable air stratocumulus wrapping around the
southwestern portion of the circulation. These factors should cause
what remains of the inner-core convection to weaken over the next
several hours, and the system should complete its extratropical
transition by tonight. The post-tropical cyclone will remain
large and powerful for the next day or so until it is absorbed by
another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic in about
36-48 h.

Epsilon is moving quickly east-northeastward at around 30 kt. The
cyclone is expected to accelerate even more today, with a fast
east-northeastward or northeastward motion expected until the
system is absorbed by the other low. The latest NHC forecast track
is little changed from the previous one and lies in the middle of
the tightly clustered consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 44.3N 49.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 47.0N 41.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 26/1200Z 51.5N 31.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/0000Z 56.4N 23.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 251454
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 25 2020

...EPSILON RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SOON...
...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.3N 49.4W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 44.3 North, longitude 49.4 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the east-northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h). A faster
east-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected later
tonight through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today and Epsilon is
forecast to become a large and powerful extratropical cyclone by
tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 0 miles (0 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 380 miles
(610 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, portions of the
east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 251452
TCMAT2

HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
1500 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.3N 49.4W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 30 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
50 KT.......100NE 140SE 70SW 30NW.
34 KT.......200NE 300SE 330SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 550SE 680SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.3N 49.4W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.2N 51.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 47.0N 41.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 130SE 110SW 60NW.
34 KT...260NE 320SE 360SW 330NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 51.5N 31.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 110SE 140SW 110NW.
34 KT...300NE 400SE 400SW 400NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 56.4N 23.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 110SE 140SW 110NW.
34 KT...300NE 400SE 400SW 400NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.3N 49.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 250836
TCDAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 AM AST Sun Oct 25 2020

Although the cloud pattern of Epsilon is beginning to expand over
the northwestern portion of the circulation as the hurricane begins
its extratropical transition, the storm continues to produce
inner-core convection. Recent shortwave infrared satellite imagery
suggest that there is some northeast-to-southwest tilt between the
mid- and low-level centers. Since there has been little overall
change in the inner-core structure since the previous advisory, the
initial intensity is held at 65 kt in agreement with the earlier
ASCAT data.

Epsilon is moving north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream and
will be over much colder SSTs later this morning. This, along with
an approaching baroclinic zone, should cause Epsilon to quickly lose
its tropical characteristics and become an extratropical low by
later today. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to remain a large
and powerful cyclone over the north Atlantic during the next day or
so. The global models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will
be absorbed by a large extratropical low over the north Atlantic
within 48 hours.

The hurricane continues to accelerate northeastward, with an initial
motion estimate of 050/26 kt. A continued northeastward acceleration
is expected through tonight, and rather faster northeastward motion
is forecast until the post-tropical cyclone is absorbed by the
larger extratropical low Monday night. The track guidance remains
tightly clustered and the new NHC forecast track is essentially an
update of the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 42.8N 53.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 45.5N 47.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 26/0600Z 49.7N 36.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 26/1800Z 54.7N 26.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 250836
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 AM AST Sun Oct 25 2020

...EPSILON EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
LATER TODAY...
...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.8N 53.7W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 42.8 North, longitude 53.7 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the northeast near 30 mph (48 km/h). A continued
northeastward acceleration is expected through Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little overall change in strength is forecast this morning.
Epsilon is expected to become a large and powerful post-tropical
cyclone later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 380 miles
(610 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 250835
TCMAT2

HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
0900 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.8N 53.7W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 26 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 140SE 70SW 30NW.
34 KT.......200NE 300SE 330SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 540SE 570SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.8N 53.7W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.1N 55.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 45.5N 47.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 140SE 100SW 50NW.
34 KT...210NE 320SE 350SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 49.7N 36.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 180SE 160SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 400SE 400SW 360NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 54.7N 26.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 120SE 120SW 80NW.
34 KT...300NE 400SE 450SW 450NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.8N 53.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 250251 CCA
TCMAT2

HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020

CORRECTED 12 FT SEAS RADII

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.3N 56.1W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 140SE 70SW 30NW.
34 KT.......200NE 300SE 330SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 510SE 540SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.3N 56.1W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 57.6W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 43.6N 51.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 140SE 100SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 320SE 350SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 47.3N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 130SE 130SW 100NW.
34 KT...250NE 350SE 350SW 330NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 51.6N 30.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 100SE 130SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 370SE 400SW 450NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 56.5N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 130SW 110NW.
34 KT...350NE 400SE 450SW 450NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.3N 56.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 250234
TCDAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020

Epsilon has become a little less organized during the past couple
of hours. The hurricane is still producing inner-core convection,
but cloud tops have gradually warmed, and the overall cloud pattern
has become asymmetric once again. ASCAT-A data from just after 00Z
showed maximum winds of 55-60 kt southeast of Epsilon's center. The
intensity of the hurricane is therefore set at 65 kt, assuming a
little undersampling from the ASCAT instrument. The wind radii
analysis was also updated based on the ASCAT data.

The hurricane is currently located over relatively warm waters
associated with the Gulf Stream. Epsilon is forecast to remain over
the Gulf Stream for at least another 12 hours, and should maintain
its tropical structure during that time. The cyclone is forecast to
move over much cooler water by Sunday afternoon and this should
cause it to quickly become post-tropical. Gradual weakening is
expected through this period, but the global models indicate that
Epsilon will continue to produce a very large area of gale-force
winds and maximum winds near hurricane strength even after it
becomes post-tropical. Epsilon is then expected to merge with
another large non-tropical low early next week.

The hurricane is accelerating northeastward and should continue to
gain forward speed in that general direction for the next day or
so. Little change was made to the NHC track forecast, which is based
on a blend of TVCA and HCCA. All of the typically reliable track
models show the same evolution, so confidence in the track forecast
remains high.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 41.3N 56.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 43.6N 51.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 47.3N 42.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 26/1200Z 51.6N 30.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/0000Z 56.5N 23.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 250233
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020

...EPSILON GROWS EVEN LARGER AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD...
...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.3N 56.1W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 41.3 North, longitude 56.1 West. Epsilon is
accelerating toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h). Continued
acceleration in that direction is expected for the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is possible through the weekend, but
Epsilon is expected to remain a large and powerful system even after
it becomes post-tropical on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 380 miles
(610 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 250232
TCMAT2

HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.3N 56.1W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 140SE 70SW 30NW.
34 KT.......200NE 300SE 330SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 480SE 520SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.3N 56.1W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 57.6W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 43.6N 51.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 140SE 100SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 320SE 350SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 47.3N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 130SE 130SW 100NW.
34 KT...250NE 350SE 350SW 330NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 51.6N 30.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 100SE 130SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 370SE 400SW 450NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 56.5N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 130SW 110NW.
34 KT...350NE 400SE 450SW 450NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.3N 56.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 242056
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020

...LARGE HURRICANE EPSILON ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD...
...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.4N 58.2W
ABOUT 615 MI...985 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 58.2 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). Additional
acceleration toward the northeast is expected through Sunday. A
continued fast northeastward to east-northeastward motion is
forecast to occur Sunday evening into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slow weakening is expected over the weekend. Epsilon
is forecast to become a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone
by late Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 425
miles (685 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 242056
TCDAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020

Epsilon continues to exhibit an inner core of deep convection. In
fact, only in the past couple of hours has the eye become difficult
to locate in satellite images. A larger comma-shaped cloud shield
surrounds the circulation, and extends several hundred miles from
the center. Epsilon passed over a buoy array this morning where
pressures as low as 957.6 mb were recorded. In addition, a pair of
ASCAT overpasses late this morning showed a large area of winds of
60-65 kt in the southern semicircle. This data supported an
intensity of 70 kt earlier, and the cyclone's appearance has not
changed much since then. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 70
kt.

The hurricane will likely hold its own for the next 6-12 h as it
traverses over waters of about 24 C, while in a fairly favorable
atmospheric environment downstream of a mid- to upper-level trough.
After 12 h, Epsilon should begin to move over waters of 20 degrees C
or less. The combination of the much cooler water temperatures and
trough interaction should cause the cyclone to begin an
extratropical transition that is forecast to complete by late
Sunday. The NHC intensity forecast was nudged a little higher in the
24-48 h time frames due to a slight increase in the guidance, and
the latest forecast is very near the HCCA and IVCN consensus models.
Regardless of exactly when Epsilon becomes extratropical, it is
still expected to remain a very large and powerful cyclone until it
merges with a larger low to its north in a few days.

Epsilon is accelerating and is now moving northeastward at 19 kt.
The cyclone should continue accelerating toward the northeast
through Sunday in the mid-latitude westerlies, and could reach a
forward motion of about 40 kt toward the northeast or east-northeast
by Sunday evening. This fast motion is expected to continue through
early next week. The NHC track forecast is little changed from the
previous one, and is in good agreement with the tightly clustered
track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 39.4N 58.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 41.5N 54.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 44.9N 46.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 26/0600Z 48.9N 35.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 26/1800Z 53.5N 25.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 27/0600Z 58.5N 19.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 242055
TCMAT2

HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
2100 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 58.2W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 80SE 90SW 0NW.
50 KT.......180NE 160SE 130SW 140NW.
34 KT.......370NE 290SE 200SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 480SE 520SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 58.2W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 59.4W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 41.5N 54.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 80SE 90SW 0NW.
50 KT...160NE 150SE 130SW 100NW.
34 KT...330NE 310SE 250SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 44.9N 46.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 130SE 130SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 340SE 300SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 48.9N 35.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 130SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 370SE 360SW 400NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 53.5N 25.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 130SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 370SE 400SW 400NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 58.5N 19.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...270NE 370SE 400SW 400NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.4N 58.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 241459
TCDAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 24 2020

The appearance of Epsilon has changed little since early this
morning, with satellite images revealing an eye feature embedded in
a small area of deep convection, while a much larger comma-shaped
pattern extends several hundred miles to the north of the center. A
drifting buoy array that was placed ahead of the hurricane has
provided useful information on the intensity of Epsilon. At 1100
UTC, a buoy located very near the center of the cyclone reported a
pressure of 957.6 mb. This pressure was much lower than the previous
estimated pressure of 972 mb, which was made without the
availability of the buoy data. Therefore, it is likely that Epsilon
was a stronger hurricane last night. Based on this data, the initial
intensity has been adjusted upward to 70 kt, and this value could
still be conservative based on typical high-latitude pressure-wind
relationships.

Epsilon has made its anticipated turn to the northeast and is now
moving at 050/11 kt. The cyclone should begin accelerating toward
the northeast later today in the mid-latitude westerlies, reaching a
forward motion of about 40 kt to the northeast or east-northeast by
Sunday evening. This fast motion is expected to continue through
early next week. The NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged
from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the tightly
clustered track guidance.

The cyclone is forecast to move over waters of about 24-26 degrees C
for the next 12 h or so, while encountering cooler temperatures
aloft. This should allow Epsilon to maintain its current intensity
today. After 12 h, the water temperatures below the cyclone are
expected to decrease below 20 degrees C, while the system interacts
with an mid- to upper-level trough. These factors should cause the
inner-core convection to dissipate while the system transitions to a
large and powerful extratropical cyclone sometime on Sunday. This
cyclone is then expected to merge with a larger extratropical low
over the far northern Atlantic by late Monday or Tuesday. That low
pressure system will likely produce hazardous conditions over
portions of far North Atlantic through the middle of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 37.9N 60.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 39.7N 57.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 42.8N 51.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 26/0000Z 46.7N 41.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 26/1200Z 50.9N 30.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 27/0000Z 55.6N 21.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 241458
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 24 2020

...EPSILON REMAINS A LARGE HURRICANE AS IT TURNS NORTHEASTWARD...
...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.9N 60.3W
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 710 MI...1140 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 37.9 North, longitude 60.3 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A rapid
acceleration to the northeast is expected to occur later today
through Sunday, with a fast northeast to east-northeast motion
forecast to occur Sunday evening into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slow weakening is expected over the weekend. Epsilon
is forecast to become a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone on
Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 405 miles
(650 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 241458
TCMAT2

HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
1500 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 60.3W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT.......180NE 90SE 70SW 130NW.
34 KT.......350NE 240SE 180SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..470NE 450SE 420SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 60.3W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 61.2W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 39.7N 57.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...180NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.
34 KT...350NE 240SE 180SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 42.8N 51.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 70NW.
34 KT...250NE 290SE 260SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 46.7N 41.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 100SW 80NW.
34 KT...270NE 350SE 350SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 50.9N 30.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 100SE 140SW 150NW.
34 KT...330NE 370SE 400SW 430NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 55.6N 21.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 100SE 140SW 150NW.
34 KT...300NE 400SE 450SW 450NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.9N 60.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 240837
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 AM AST Sat Oct 24 2020

...LARGE EPSILON EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY OVER THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC...
...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG
ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.9N 62.0W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 36.9 North, longitude 62.0 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast is expected later today. Epsilon is then
forecast to continue moving northeastward with quickly increasing
forward speed by this evening, which will continue through early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is expected over the
weekend. Epsilon is forecast to become a large and powerful
post-tropical cyclone early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 355 miles
(575 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 240836
TCMAT2

HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
0900 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 62.0W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT.......150NE 90SE 70SW 130NW.
34 KT.......310NE 240SE 180SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 420SE 390SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 62.0W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 62.1W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.8N 59.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...130NE 100SE 100SW 130NW.
34 KT...270NE 250SE 200SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 41.5N 55.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 100SW 70NW.
34 KT...250NE 260SE 220SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 45.0N 47.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 140SE 100SW 40NW.
34 KT...250NE 300SE 300SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 49.1N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 130SE 110SW 80NW.
34 KT...250NE 400SE 330SW 330NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 53.3N 25.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 120SE 120SW 110NW.
34 KT...300NE 400SE 450SW 450NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.9N 62.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 240239
TCDAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020

Convection in Epsilon's southeastern quadrant has faded during the
past several hours, including the outer eyewall that was previously
nearly closed. The hurricane's cloud shield has consequently taken
on a very asymmetric shape. Satellite intensity estimates from all
agencies have decreased since this afternoon, so the intensity is
lowered slightly to 70 kt. It is worth noting that regardless of
the peak winds, recent ASCAT data indicate that the wind field of
the hurricane has expanded.

Epsilon is now moving over a relatively warm eddy in the Gulf
Stream and this may prevent the hurricane's structure from
substantially decaying further for another 12 to 24 hours. In fact,
some models still indicate that Epsilon could briefly regain some
strength tomorrow morning. By tomorrow evening the hurricane should
begin moving over cooler waters, and extratropical (ET) transition
will likely begin in earnest. The cyclone will still likely be at
or near hurricane strength when the ET process is completed in
around 48 h. Perhaps more importantly, Epsilon will continue to
produce a large area of gale- and storm-force winds even after it
becomes post-tropical. Epsilon is then forecast to merge with
another large non-tropical low early next week, and the resulting
low pressure system could produce hazardous conditions over
portions of far North Atlantic for several more days thereafter.

Almost no change was made to the NHC track forecast. Epsilon is
expected to turn northeastward and accelerate in that direction
over the course of the next couple of days ahead of a deep-layer
mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. The models are in
excellent agreement for a recurving cyclone. While there is always
some uncertainty in the forward speed of such cases, confidence in
the NHC forecast is relatively high. The track, intensity, and wind
radii forecasts are all near the various multi-model consensus aids
(TVCN, IVCN, and RVCN).

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 36.5N 62.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 38.1N 61.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 40.4N 57.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 43.6N 50.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 47.4N 40.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 26/1200Z 51.7N 29.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 240237
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020

...LARGE EPSILON CONTINUES TO CHURN UP THE NORTH ATLANTIC...
...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 62.1W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 36.5 North, longitude 62.1 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast is expected on Saturday. Epsilon is then forecast to
continue moving northeastward with quickly increasing forward speed
through early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight fluctuations in intensity are possible on Saturday.
Slow weakening is forecast to begin on Sunday. Epsilon is
expected to become a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone early
next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 355 miles
(575 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 240235
TCMAT2

HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
0300 UTC SAT OCT 24 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 62.1W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT.......170NE 70SE 70SW 130NW.
34 KT.......310NE 240SE 180SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 420SE 390SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 62.1W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 62.0W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 38.1N 61.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...130NE 100SE 100SW 130NW.
34 KT...270NE 250SE 200SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 40.4N 57.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 20NW.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 100SW 70NW.
34 KT...250NE 260SE 220SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 43.6N 50.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 80NE 140SE 100SW 40NW.
34 KT...250NE 300SE 300SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 47.4N 40.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 130SE 110SW 80NW.
34 KT...250NE 400SE 330SW 330NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 51.7N 29.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 120SE 120SW 110NW.
34 KT...300NE 400SE 450SW 450NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.5N 62.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 232051
TCDAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020

The satellite structure of Epsilon has evolved over the last 6
hours, with visible imagery suggesting concentric eyewalls, and
recent 89 GHz GMI and AMSR2 microwave imagery indicating the
secondary eyewall has nearly closed off around the smaller core. The
current intensity of Epsilon was kept at 75 kt for this advisory,
close to the satellite estimates, although the 50-kt wind field has
expanded significantly in the northern semicircle as indicated by
recent scatterometer data.

Epsilon has maintained its northward heading with a bit faster
forward motion (360/10 kt). The track reasoning remains the same,
where the cyclone will be steered to the north around the westward
extent of a deep-layer ridge and then will move quite quickly to
the northeast as it encounters stronger deep-layer westerly flow
ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough. This same mid-latitude trough
will interact with Epsilon after 60 h and contribute to the
formation of a large and powerful baroclinic cyclone by the end of
the forecast period. No significant changes were made to the track
forecast.

Vertical wind shear is expected to remain low over the next two days
and intensity changes will likely be influenced by inner core
fluctuations. The intensity guidance does suggest some modest
intensification is possible in the short-term as Epsilon moves over
a warm eddy in the Gulf Stream, assuming the current secondary
eyewall consolidates. Based on this reasoning, the official
intensity forecast was nudged slightly upward for the first 24 h.
Afterwards, slow weakening is expected but Epsilon?--s 34- and 50-kt
wind field should continue to expand to the south while it
undergoes extratropical transition, completing the process by early
Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 35.5N 61.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 37.0N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 38.9N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 41.9N 53.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 45.6N 45.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 50.0N 34.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 26/1800Z 54.0N 24.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 232050
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020

...EPSILON FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 61.7W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 61.7 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general northward
motion is expected to continue through early Saturday, with a very
fast forward motion toward the northeast anticipated early next
week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in strength could occur for the next day
or so before gradual weakening begins on Sunday. Epsilon could
lose tropical characteristics late Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles
(445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 232050
TCMAT2

HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
2100 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 61.7W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT.......150NE 70SE 50SW 150NW.
34 KT.......240NE 240SE 120SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 420SE 360SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 61.7W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 61.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 37.0N 61.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 130NW.
34 KT...260NE 260SE 160SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.9N 59.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 60SE 50SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 130SE 120SW 70NW.
34 KT...250NE 260SE 220SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 41.9N 53.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 80NE 160SE 120SW 20NW.
34 KT...240NE 300SE 280SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 45.6N 45.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 150SE 150SW 30NW.
34 KT...240NE 370SE 330SW 260NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 50.0N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT...270NE 410SE 420SW 400NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 54.0N 24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 150SW 120NW.
34 KT...260NE 410SE 540SW 540NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.5N 61.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 231456
TCDAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 23 2020

Epsilon's structure has not changed appreciably in the last 12
hours, with a small eye intermittently appearing in geostationary
satellite and polar-orbiting microwave imagery with additional
well-defined curved outer bands. The initial intensity is kept at 75
kt based on SAB and TAFB satellite estimates and the satellite
trends.

The cyclone continues to move to the north but at a slightly faster
speed (360/09 kt). This northward track is expected for the next day
or so as the hurricane is primarily steered by a deep-layer ridge
located to its east. Thereafter, Epsilon is forecast to turn toward
the northeast and accelerate due to strong mid-latitude westerlies
ahead of an approaching longwave trough. By 60 h, Epsilon will be
moving rapidly over cooler waters and is expected to be completing
extratropical transition. The latest NHC official track is very
similar to the previous one and is near the corrected-consensus
models.

Epsilon remains in a low vertical wind shear environment and will
actually be moving over slightly warmer waters over the next day as
it passes across a warm Gulf Stream eddy. It is unclear, however,
that the current storm structure would allow for any strengthening.
Thus, the official forecast maintains the current intensity for the
next 36 h, and it is likely that inner-core processes will dictate
any short-term fluctuations in intensity. After 36 h, slow weakening
should begin as southwesterly vertical wind shear gradually
increases and Epsilon reaches the north edge of the Gulf Stream.
However, the system is likely to merge with another mid-latitude
cyclone and become a powerful extratropical low at the end of the
forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast closely mirrors the
previous one and the latest global model wind speed consensus
forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 34.1N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 35.6N 61.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 37.5N 60.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 40.3N 56.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 43.7N 49.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 48.1N 39.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 26/1200Z 52.5N 27.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 231449
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 23 2020

...EPSILON MOVING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 61.6W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 61.6 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A general northward
motion with increasing forward speed is expected through early
Saturday, with a very fast forward motion toward the northeast
early next week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in strength could occur for the next day
or so before gradual weakening begins on Sunday. Epsilon could
lose tropical characteristics late Sunday.

Epsilon remains a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 231449
TCMAT2

HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
1500 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 61.6W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......220NE 220SE 120SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 360SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 61.6W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 61.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.6N 61.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...230NE 220SE 150SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 37.5N 60.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 90SW 70NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 180SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 40.3N 56.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 70SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 150SE 120SW 40NW.
34 KT...250NE 270SE 250SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 43.7N 49.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 80NE 160SE 130SW 50NW.
34 KT...270NE 360SE 340SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 48.1N 39.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 120SE 150SW 60NW.
34 KT...290NE 390SE 410SW 340NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 52.5N 27.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 100SE 150SW 100NW.
34 KT...320NE 390SE 570SW 450NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 61.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 230838
TCDAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 AM AST Fri Oct 23 2020

Although Epsilon is moving over 25.5 deg C sea-surface temperatures
(SST), the hurricane has continued to generate deep convection
around the small 15-nmi-wide eye. Upper-level outflow also remains
impressive in all quadrants, but especially in the northern
semicircle where a pronounced poleward outflow channel has become
established. The initial intensity remains at 75 kt based on a
Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB yielding a Current
Intensity (CI) number of T4.5/77 kt. The 34-kt and 50-kt wind radii
were expanded based on recent ASCAT scatterometer wind data between
0100-0300 UTC.

Epsilon is now moving northward, or 360/07 kt. The hurricane is
forecast to continue moving northward today around the western
periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge located east of the
cyclone. On Saturday, Epsilon is expected to turn northeastward and
accelerate ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and associated
frontal system that will be moving off the U.S. east coast on
Sunday. That motion will take Epsilon over increasingly cooler SSTs
as low as 20 deg C by Sunday morning, resulting in extratropical
transition by 60 h, if not sooner. The new NHC official track
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies
close to the middle of the tightly packed simple- and corrected-
consensus models.

The current relatively low southerly vertical wind shear of about 10
kt is forecast to gradually increase to more than 20 kt by this
evening. Although Epsilon will be moving over a modestly warm
oceanic eddy today, which could result in some brief restrengthening
of the cyclone, the official intensity forecast calls for the
intensity to remain steady for the next 36 h, followed by slow
weakening thereafter due to the hurricane moving over near-20 deg C
SSTs by 48 hours. By 60 hours, the global models and the GFS- and
ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance indicate that Epsilon will have undergone
extratropical transition over the far north Atlantic. Afterward,
the global models continue to show Epsilon getting absorbed by a
larger extratropical cyclone at the higher latitudes, resulting in a
very powerful low developing with a central pressure near 940 mb.
That low then moves eastward, possibly menacing northern Europe by
the middle of next week.

The forecast wind radii, which show the cyclone expanding over the
next few days, are in good agreement with the dynamical consensus
radii guidance, RVCN.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents
are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater
Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States,
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 33.1N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 34.7N 61.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 36.7N 61.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 38.8N 58.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 42.0N 54.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 46.0N 45.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 26/0600Z 49.9N 34.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 230834
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 AM AST Fri Oct 23 2020

...EPSILON MOVING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 61.6W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
t 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 61.6 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A generally northward
motion with increasing forward speed is expected through early
Saturday, with an even faster motion toward the northeast later that
day. The center of Epsilon will continue to move away from Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in strength could occur for the next day
or so before gradual weakening begins on Saturday.

Epsilon remains a large storm system. Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 230834
TCMAT2

HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
0900 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 61.6W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......220NE 220SE 120SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 360SE 600SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 61.6W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 61.6W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.7N 61.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 36.7N 61.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...230NE 230SE 150SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.8N 58.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 180SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 42.0N 54.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 10NW.
50 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 70NW.
34 KT...250NE 280SE 260SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 46.0N 45.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 130SE 120SW 30NW.
34 KT...250NE 310SE 300SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 49.9N 34.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 140SE 140SW 30NW.
34 KT...320NE 360SE 360SW 270NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 61.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 230401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 23.10.2020

HURRICANE EPSILON ANALYSED POSITION : 32.0N 61.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL272020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 23.10.2020 32.0N 61.6W STRONG
12UTC 23.10.2020 33.9N 61.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.10.2020 36.4N 61.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.10.2020 38.1N 60.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.10.2020 41.7N 56.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.10.2020 44.9N 50.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.10.2020 48.3N 38.7W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 26.10.2020 51.2N 26.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.10.2020 52.8N 19.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.10.2020 POST-TROPICAL


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 230401

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 230232
TCDAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020

The eye became a little more apparent on satellite images but
recently has become less defined. The system has a somewhat
ragged-looking Central Dense Overcast with a broad outer cloud band
wrapping around the western semicircle of the circulation.
Upper-level outflow is fairly well-defined over the northern portion
of the system. The current intensity estimate is kept at 75 kt in
agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB and objective ADT
estimates from UW-CIMSS. Since Epsilon should be passing near a
modestly warm oceanic eddy during the next day or so, some slight
short-term restrengthening is allowed for in the official forecast.
Later in the forecast period, gradual weakening should occur due to
cooler waters, but the system is likely to remain a strong cyclone
for the next few days. By around 72 hours, the GFS and SHIPS
guidance indicates that Epsilon will have undergone extratropical
transition over the north Atlantic. Afterward, the global models
show the system merging with another cyclone at the higher
latitudes.

Epsilon continues to move just a bit to the west of due north, or
at about 345/8 kt. The cyclone is expected to move mainly
northward on the western side of a mid-tropospheric ridge during
the next couple of days. By around 48 hours, Epsilon should
turn northeastward and accelerate as it becomes caught up in
the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is
not much different from the previous one, and is very close to
the latest corrected dynamical consensus, HCCA, prediction.

The forecast wind radii, which show the cyclone expanding over the
next few days, are in good agreement with the dynamical consensus
radii guidance, RVCN.

Key Messages:

1. Winds at Bermuda will subside overnight, and the Tropical Storm
Warning for that island has been discontinued.

2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents
are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater
Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States,
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 32.6N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 33.8N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 35.8N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 37.8N 60.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 40.5N 56.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 44.3N 50.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 48.4N 41.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 230231
TCMAT2

HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
0300 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 61.6W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......180NE 210SE 120SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 360SE 560SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 61.6W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 61.5W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 33.8N 61.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 130SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.8N 61.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...230NE 220SE 150SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 37.8N 60.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 180SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 40.5N 56.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 10NW.
50 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 70NW.
34 KT...250NE 280SE 260SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 44.3N 50.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 130SE 120SW 30NW.
34 KT...250NE 310SE 300SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 48.4N 41.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 140SE 140SW 30NW.
34 KT...320NE 360SE 360SW 270NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 61.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 230231
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020

...EPSILON PASSING WELL EAST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 61.6W
ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 61.6 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A generally
northward motion with increasing forward speed is expected through
early Saturday, with an even faster motion toward the northeast
later that day. The center of Epsilon will be moving away from
Bermuda overnight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are expected for the next day
or two before gradual weakening begins by late Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles
(390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Winds at Bermuda will subside overnight.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 222349
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
800 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020

...EPSILON COULD STILL PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER
BERMUDA THROUGH TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 61.5W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 61.5 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general
northward motion is expected through early Saturday with a faster
motion toward the northeast later that day. The center of Epsilon
will continue to pass well east of Bermuda tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are expected for the next day
or two before gradual weakening begins by late Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240
miles (390 km). An observation site near Heritage Wharf, Bermuda,
reported a sustained wind of 31 mph (50 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph
(83 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on
Bermuda through this evening.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 222033
TCDAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020

Satellite images indicate that the eye of Epsilon has lost
definition over the past several hours. While satellite intensity
estimates haven't changed much yet, they were generally higher than
the earlier reconnaissance data. The initial wind speed is set to
75 kt, on the lower side of the satellite estimates after placing
more weight on the aircraft data.

Epsilon is moving faster to the north-northwest this afternoon, at
roughly 8 kt. The hurricane should turn northward overnight and
continue on that heading for a day or two while it moves through a
break in the central Atlantic ridge. Epsilon is likely to move
considerably faster to the northeast over the weekend as it get
caught in the mid-latitude flow. The only significant adjustment
to this forecast is a small northward shift in a couple of days.
The new NHC track is still south of the model consensus over the
weekend and beyond, placing more emphasis on the global models than
the regional hurricane guidance. After 72 hours, the cyclone is
forecast to merge with a much larger extratropical cyclone over the
far north Atlantic.

The small core that Epsilon has maintained for the past couple of
days seems to be degrading, and perhaps it is forming a larger
secondary wind maximum based on AMSR microwave data. Otherwise, a
trough interaction and a small warm eddy near the Gulf Stream could
lead to a slight recovery in Epsilon's strength tomorrow or
Saturday. Either way, the global models make this hurricane's
wind field quite a bit larger (especially the 50- and 64-kt winds),
and that's reflected in the latest wind radii forecast. The new
NHC wind speed prediction is about the same as the previous one,
adjusted slightly for a lower initial wind speed.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda
through this evening, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest
approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect
for Bermuda.

2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents
are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater
Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States,
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 31.9N 61.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 33.0N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 34.8N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 36.8N 61.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 39.0N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 42.2N 53.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 46.5N 45.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 222033
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020

...EPSILON STILL COULD PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA
THROUGH TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 61.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 61.4 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general
northward motion is expected through early Saturday with a faster
motion toward the northeast later that day. The center of Epsilon
will pass well east of Bermuda tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are expected for
the next couple of days before gradual weakening starts on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles
(390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on
Bermuda through this evening.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 221737
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
200 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020

...EPSILON NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST...
...SHOULD PASS WELL EAST OF BERMUDA BUT CAUSE TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 61.2W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 61.2 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general
motion is expected today, followed by a northward motion tonight
through Friday night, and an acceleration toward the northeast over
the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Epsilon should
make its closest approach to, but well to the east of, Bermuda later
this evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next
couple of days, with gradual weakening forecast by early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310
miles (500 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on
Bermuda through this evening.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 221602

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 22.10.2020

HURRICANE EPSILON ANALYSED POSITION : 30.7N 61.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL272020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.10.2020 30.7N 61.2W STRONG
00UTC 23.10.2020 32.2N 61.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.10.2020 34.0N 61.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.10.2020 36.4N 61.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.10.2020 37.8N 60.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.10.2020 40.7N 57.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.10.2020 44.4N 50.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.10.2020 48.6N 39.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.10.2020 52.3N 28.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.10.2020 POST-TROPICAL


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 221602

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 221459
TCDAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2020

Earlier aircraft data indicate that Epsilon has lost a lot of
strength since yesterday. The maximum flight-level winds were only
79 kt, considerably less than satellite alone would indicate.
However, satellite images show that the eye has recently become
better defined, and the weakening trend has probably stopped. The
initial wind speed is set to 80 kt, a bit higher than recent
aircraft data with the satellite trend reversal and because the
pressure was still about 965 mb on the last pass.

Epsilon's wobbling have continued overnight, but a longer-term
12-hour motion suggests that the hurricane is still moving to the
northwest (325/6 kt). The cyclone should turn north-northwest soon
and northward by tomorrow while it moves through a break in the
central Atlantic ridge. All the guidance is showing the hurricane
accelerating northeastward starting this weekend into early next
week as it becomes entrained in the fast mid-latitude flow. While
the new forecast is a little west of the previous NHC track for the
first day or two, it is still east of the model consensus, with
only cosmetic speed changes at long range.

The forecast intensity could oscillate up and down during the next
couple of days while Epsilon moves over marginally warm waters, and
potentially undergoes an eyewall replacement and/or a conducive
trough interaction. The intensity forecast through 48 hours is a
compromise of these opposing factors, showing little change. At
longer range, while the SSTs cool, a mid-latitude trough is likely
to keep Epsilon's strength mostly intact as the hurricane
eventually contributes to a rather significant non-tropical cyclone
over the far North Atlantic on day 4. The forecast for early next
week is a little higher than the last one based primarily on the
global model fields.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda
through this evening, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest
approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect
for Bermuda.

2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents
are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater
Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States,
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 30.9N 61.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 31.9N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 33.4N 61.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 35.1N 61.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 36.9N 60.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 39.6N 57.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 43.0N 50.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 52.5N 30.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 221458
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2020

...EPSILON HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY BUT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED ON BERMUDA THROUGH TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 61.2W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 61.2 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected later today, followed by a northward
motion tonight through Friday night, and an acceleration toward the
northeast over the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of
Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to, but well to
the east of, Bermuda later this evening.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected
during the next couple of days, with weakening by early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles
(500 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on
Bermuda through this evening.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 221457
TCMAT2

HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
1500 UTC THU OCT 22 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 61.2W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......270NE 200SE 120SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..630NE 360SE 510SW 510NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 61.2W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 61.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 31.9N 61.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...230NE 200SE 120SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 33.4N 61.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 190SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.1N 61.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 150SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 36.9N 60.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...300NE 260SE 200SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 39.6N 57.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 40NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 240SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 43.0N 50.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 150SE 120SW 40NW.
34 KT...290NE 320SE 310SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 52.5N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 61.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 221158
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
800 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT EPSILON HAS
DROPPED IN INTENSITY...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED ON BERMUDA TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 61.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...385 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Epsilon was located
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 30.6
North, longitude 61.3 West. Epsilon has been wobbling toward the
west recently, but its longer-term motion is toward the northwest
near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected
later today, followed by a northward motion tonight through Friday
night, and an acceleration toward the northeast on Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its
closest approach to, but well to the east of, Bermuda later this
evening.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next few
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310
miles (500 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches)
based on Air Force Reserve dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on
Bermuda through this evening.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 220848
TCDAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2020

Epsilon's eye has lost some definition and become cloud filled in
conventional satellite imagery during the past few hours, and an
0604 UTC AMSR2 microwave image showed that the eyewall has been
eroded on the west side. Given the degradation of the cloud pattern
and lowering Dvorak estimates, Epsilon's initial intensity is being
set, likely generously, at 95 kt. A recent UW-CIMSS SATCON
estimate suggests that the intensity could be 10-15 kt lower than
that, but I'd rather we see the aircraft reconnaissance data in a
few hours before reducing it any further.

Epsilon's trochoidal wobbles have continued overnight, but a
longer-term 12-hour motion suggests that the hurricane has turned
toward the northwest (320/6 kt). A mid-tropospheric high over the
central Atlantic will be Epsilon's main driver, causing the
hurricane to turn toward the north-northwest later today and then
toward the north tonight. Shorter-term deviations around this
general trajectory will be possible if the trochoidal oscillations
continue through the day. Epsilon is forecast to turn toward the
northeast and accelerate on Saturday when it becomes embedded
in the mid-latitude westerlies, taking it past southeastern
Newfoundland and into the north Atlantic early next week. The new
NHC track forecast is down the middle of the tightly clustered
model guidance, and close to the TVCN multi-model consensus.
However, because of the recent wobbles, this new forecast lies
about 40 n mi to the east of the previous forecast during the first
36 hours.

Epsilon's forecast track takes it over a rather homogeneous field
of sea surface temperatures between 25-26 degrees Celsius for the
next 48-60 hours as vertical shear increases somewhat. Gradual
weakening is anticipated during that period, but a more sudden
decrease in ocean temperatures after 60 hours should induce quicker
weakening thereafter. Hurricane and global models both agree on
this scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is very close to the
IVCN consensus and the HFIP Corrected Consensus. Epsilon is
expected to merge with a frontal zone and become extratropical by
day 4.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda
through this evening, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest
approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect
for Bermuda.

2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents
are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater
Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States,
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 30.6N 60.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 31.6N 61.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 33.0N 61.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 34.7N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 36.6N 61.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 38.7N 59.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 41.6N 54.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 50.0N 36.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 27/0600Z 60.0N 22.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 220848
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2020

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 60.9W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 60.9 West. Epsilon
has been wobbling around since last evening, but its longer-term
motion is toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward
the north-northwest is expected later today, followed by a
northward motion tonight through Friday night, and an acceleration
toward the northeast on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center
of Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to, but well to
the east of, Bermuda later this evening.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the
next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles
(500 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on
Bermuda through this evening.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 220847
TCMAT2

HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
0900 UTC THU OCT 22 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 60.9W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......270NE 200SE 120SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..660NE 540SE 570SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 60.9W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 60.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.6N 61.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...220NE 210SE 130SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 33.0N 61.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 130SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.7N 61.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 140SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 36.6N 61.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 40SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...260NE 250SE 160SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.7N 59.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 70NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 200SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 41.6N 54.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 120SE 100SW 60NW.
34 KT...270NE 280SE 250SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 50.0N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 60.0N 22.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 60.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 220549
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
200 AM AST Thu Oct 22 2020

...EPSILON MAKES A WOBBLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 60.5W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 60.5 West. Epsilon
has been wobbling during the past few hours, but its longer-term
motion is now toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This
northwestward motion is expected to continue today. The hurricane is
forecast to turn toward the north-northwest late today and toward
the north on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Epsilon
is forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda later this
evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Epsilon is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Small fluctuations in intensity are possible
through this morning, but a weakening trend is expected to begin
later today and continue into the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km) mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on
Bermuda through this evening.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are affecting Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands, and are
expected to reach portions of the east coast of the United States
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 220241
TCDAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

The eye of the hurricane remains well-defined this evening,
although the surrounding cloud tops are beginning to warm a bit.
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Epsilon a
little while ago and found peak 700 mb flight level winds of 110
kt, which continues to support an intensity of 100 kt. The central
pressure had fallen slightly since this afternoon, but recent
center fixes suggest that it is leveling off. Some fluctuations in
intensity are possible over the next 12 hours or so due to
inner-core processes. Later on Thursday, a slow weakening trend is
expected to begin as vertical shear over Epsilon should gradually
increase. The official intensity forecast is in good agreement
with the latest model consensus. By 96 hours, the global models
indicate that the strong cyclone will merge with a frontal zone
over the mid-latitudes, and the NHC forecast shows the system as
extratropical by that time.

Epsilon's motion has exhibited what is likely a trochoidal wobble,
which is typical of slow-moving intense hurricanes. This has
resulted in a more westward track during the past 6 hours or so.
The initial motion estimate is 285/7 kt, and is indeed more
westward than previous estimates. However, recent satellite images
indicate little short-term motion. The track model guidance is in
very good agreement that Epsilon will move northwestward and then
north-northwestward on Friday and Friday night. Later, the
cyclone should move north of the subtropical ridge, and turn
northward and northeastward. By days 4-5, the cyclone should
accelerate northeastward under the influence of the mid-latitude
westerlies. The official forecast is right on top of the latest
corrected multi-model consensus guidance, HCCA and is only slightly
west of the previous NHC track through 24 hours. This puts the
closest approach of Epsilon to Bermuda between 00Z and 06Z Friday.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight, and
continuing intermittently through late Thursday, when Epsilon is
forecast to make its closest approach east of the island. A
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda.

2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the
coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the
Leeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread to
portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada
during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 29.6N 60.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 30.5N 61.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 31.8N 61.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 33.2N 62.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 34.9N 62.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 36.9N 61.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 39.2N 58.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 46.5N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 27/0000Z 56.0N 25.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 220241
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BERMUDA THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 60.6W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 60.6 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a
northwestward motion is expected later tonight and Thursday. The
hurricane is forecast to turn toward the north-northwest by late
Thursday, and toward the north on Friday. On the forecast track,
the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to
Bermuda Thursday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Epsilon is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Small fluctuations in intensity are possible
overnight, but a weakening trend is expected to begin later on
Thursday and continue into the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles
(555 km) mainly to the north of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 953 mb (28.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight and
continuing intermittently through late Thursday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are affecting Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands, and are
expected to reach portions of the east coast of the United States
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 220240
TCMAT2

HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
0300 UTC THU OCT 22 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 60.6W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......300NE 150SE 120SW 300NW.
12 FT SEAS..680NE 480SE 600SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 60.6W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 60.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 30.5N 61.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...300NE 150SE 130SW 260NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 31.8N 61.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...270NE 180SE 140SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 33.2N 62.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 150SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 34.9N 62.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...270NE 200SE 150SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 36.9N 61.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...270NE 220SE 170SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 39.2N 58.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...270NE 250SE 220SW 220NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 46.5N 42.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 56.0N 25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 60.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 212348
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
800 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

...EPSILON EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA BY LATE TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 60.5W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Epsilon was located
near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 60.5 West. Epsilon has been
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) over the past
few hours, but a northwestward motion is expected tonight and
Thursday. The hurricane is forecast to turn toward the
north-northwest or north by Thursday night. On the forecast track,
the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to
Bermuda Thursday afternoon or evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Epsilon is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some small fluctuations in intensity are
possible tonight. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on
Thursday and continue into the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 450
miles (720 km) mainly to the north of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 951 mb (28.08 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight and
continuing intermittently through late Thursday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are affecting Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands, and are
expected to reach portions of the east coast of the United States
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 212055
TCDAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

Epsilon has continued to defy expectations and rapidly intensify
this afternoon. The satellite presentation of the hurricane is very
impressive, with a warm well-defined eye and a closed ring of
eyewall convection with cloud tops colder than -60 deg C. An Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft that investigated Epsilon earlier
today measured SFMR winds of around 100 kt and max flight level
winds of 100 kt. Dropsonde data indicated peak surface winds of 106
kt with deeper-layer averages of 95-100 kt, which also lends support
to the higher SFMR winds, and surface pressures have fallen since
the special advisory. Therefore the initial intensity is raised to
100 kt, making Epsilon the 4th major hurricane of the season.

Epsilon's estimated motion is 305/9 kt, and the hurricane is
expected to gradually turn more northwestward tonight as it is
steered by a mid-level ridge building to its north and east.
Epsilon is forecast to pass east of Bermuda and make its closest
approach to the island Thursday afternoon or evening. As the
ridge becomes oriented east of the hurricane, Epsilon will turn
northward and move into the mid-latitudes, where it is expected to
accelerate northeastward across the central Atlantic this weekend.
There was a westward shift noted in a couple of the track models,
and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly westward in
the near-term period to better reflect the guidance consensus.

As Epsilon continues to gain latitude, environmental conditions will
become increasingly unfavorable for additional strengthening. The
hurricane is forecast to move over cooler waters beginning tonight,
and southerly deep-layer shear is expected within the next 24-48 h.
With that being said, small intensity fluctuations cannot be
completely ruled out tonight given Epsilon's development trends and
well-organized structure. The NHC intensity forecast lies closest to
the SHIPS guidance for the first 24-36 h of the forecast period.
Afterwards, the official forecast shows more steady weakening with
the possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle, and the new NHC
intensity prediction follows the intensity consensus. Epsilon could
begin its extratropical transition by Sunday night, and it is
forecast to be a powerful extratropical cyclone over the
northeastern Atlantic by day 5.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
this evening and continuing intermittently through late Thursday,
when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the
island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda.

2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the
coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the
Leeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread to
portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada
during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 29.6N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 30.5N 60.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 31.8N 61.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 33.0N 62.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 34.4N 62.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 36.2N 61.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 38.3N 59.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 44.5N 47.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 54.0N 28.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 212052
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

...EPSILON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 60.0W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Epsilon was located
near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 60.0 West. Epsilon is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Thursday. The hurricane is forecast
to turn toward the north-northwest or north by Thursday night. On
the forecast track, the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its
closest approach to Bermuda Thursday afternoon or evening.

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. Epsilon is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some small fluctuations in
intensity are possible tonight. Gradual weakening is forecast to
begin on Thursday and continue into the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 450 miles
(720 km) mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
this evening and continuing intermittently through late Thursday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are affecting Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands, and are
expected to reach portions of the east coast of the United States
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 212051
TCMAT2

HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 60.0W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......390NE 120SE 120SW 300NW.
12 FT SEAS..720NE 360SE 450SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 60.0W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 59.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 30.5N 60.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...330NE 150SE 130SW 260NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.8N 61.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...270NE 180SE 140SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 33.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 150SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.4N 62.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...260NE 200SE 150SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 36.2N 61.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...270NE 220SE 170SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.3N 59.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...270NE 240SE 210SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 44.5N 47.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 54.0N 28.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 60.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 211742
TCDAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Special Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
200 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Epsilon
is significantly stronger than was previously analyzed. A blend of
the flight-level and surface wind data supports an intensity of 95
kt. The intensity forecast has been adjusted upward during the first
12-24 h to account for this new data. It is possible that Epsilon
could strengthen a little more and become a major hurricane later
today before conditions become less conducive tomorrow.

No changes were made to the track forecast at this time.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
later today and continuing intermittently through late Thursday,
when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the
island. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Bermuda.

2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the
coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the
Leeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread to
portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada
during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1800Z 29.4N 59.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 29.6N 60.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 30.9N 60.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 32.3N 61.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 33.7N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 35.0N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 36.6N 60.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 42.0N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 49.5N 33.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 211741
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Special Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
200 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS EPSILON IS STILL
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 59.7W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Epsilon was located
near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 59.7 West. Epsilon is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north
by Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Epsilon is
forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda Thursday afternoon
or evening.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft has found that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible this
afternoon, followed by little change in strength or gradual
weakening into the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 435 miles
(705 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
later today and continuing intermittently through late Thursday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are affecting Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands, and are
expected to reach portions of the east coast of the United States
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 211739
TCMAT2

HURRICANE EPSILON SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
1800 UTC WED OCT 21 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 59.7W AT 21/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......380NE 80SE 50SW 300NW.
12 FT SEAS..750NE 390SE 510SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 59.7W AT 21/1800Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 58.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.6N 60.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...300NE 110SE 80SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 30.9N 60.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...240NE 160SE 100SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 32.3N 61.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 160SE 100SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 33.7N 61.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 180SE 120SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.0N 61.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...270NE 210SE 150SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 36.6N 60.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...270NE 240SE 180SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 42.0N 51.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 49.5N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 59.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 211732
TCUAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
130 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS EPSILON STRONGER...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Epsilon has continued to strengthen and now has maximum
sustained winds of 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. A Special
Advisory will be issued by 200 PM AST (1800 UTC) to reflect the
higher initial intensity and adjust the intensity forecast. This
special advisory will be issued in lieu of the 200 PM AST (1800
UTC) intermediate public advisory.


SUMMARY OF 130 PM AST...1730 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 59.6W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 211604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 21.10.2020

HURRICANE EPSILON ANALYSED POSITION : 28.7N 58.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL272020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.10.2020 0 28.7N 58.8W 982 46
0000UTC 22.10.2020 12 29.5N 60.5W 978 53
1200UTC 22.10.2020 24 30.6N 61.0W 975 59
0000UTC 23.10.2020 36 32.6N 61.4W 969 62
1200UTC 23.10.2020 48 33.9N 61.6W 966 58
0000UTC 24.10.2020 60 35.6N 61.6W 960 62
1200UTC 24.10.2020 72 37.2N 61.0W 953 62
0000UTC 25.10.2020 84 39.0N 57.9W 951 64
1200UTC 25.10.2020 96 41.8N 52.1W 952 63
0000UTC 26.10.2020 108 45.2N 43.1W 960 58
1200UTC 26.10.2020 120 49.7N 31.0W 961 53
0000UTC 27.10.2020 132 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 33.7N 28.3E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.10.2020 72 33.3N 28.1E 1007 29
0000UTC 25.10.2020 84 32.2N 28.8E 1007 28
1200UTC 25.10.2020 96 31.3N 29.6E 1010 23
0000UTC 26.10.2020 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 25.5N 78.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.10.2020 120 25.5N 78.0W 1007 31
0000UTC 27.10.2020 132 26.7N 75.5W 1007 28
1200UTC 27.10.2020 144 26.9N 75.4W 1007 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 211604

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 211604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 21.10.2020

HURRICANE EPSILON ANALYSED POSITION : 28.7N 58.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL272020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.10.2020 28.7N 58.8W MODERATE
00UTC 22.10.2020 29.5N 60.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.10.2020 30.6N 61.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.10.2020 32.6N 61.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.10.2020 33.9N 61.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.10.2020 35.6N 61.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.10.2020 37.2N 61.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.10.2020 39.0N 57.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.10.2020 41.8N 52.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.10.2020 45.2N 43.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.10.2020 49.7N 31.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.10.2020 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 33.7N 28.3E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.10.2020 33.3N 28.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.10.2020 32.2N 28.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.10.2020 31.3N 29.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.10.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 25.5N 78.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.10.2020 25.5N 78.0W WEAK
00UTC 27.10.2020 26.7N 75.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.10.2020 26.9N 75.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 211604

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 211448
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

...EPSILON A LITTLE STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 59.1W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 59.1 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected
today. A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by
a turn toward the north by Thursday night. On the forecast track,
the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to
Bermuda Thursday afternoon or evening.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today,
followed by little change in strength into the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 435 miles
(705 km) mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
later today and continuing intermittently through late Thursday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are affecting Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands, and are
expected to reach portions of the east coast of the United States
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 211447
TCMAT2

HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
1500 UTC WED OCT 21 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 59.1W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......380NE 80SE 50SW 300NW.
12 FT SEAS..750NE 390SE 530SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 59.1W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 58.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.6N 60.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...300NE 110SE 80SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 30.9N 60.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...240NE 160SE 100SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 32.3N 61.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 160SE 100SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 33.7N 61.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 180SE 120SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.0N 61.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...270NE 210SE 150SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 36.6N 60.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...270NE 240SE 180SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 42.0N 51.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 49.5N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 59.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 211142
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
800 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

...EPSILON COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 58.8W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Epsilon was located
by satellite images near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 58.8 West.
Epsilon has taken a westward jog this morning but is generally
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected
today. A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by
a turn toward the north by Thursday night. On the forecast track,
the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to
Bermuda Thursday afternoon or evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today, followed by
little change in strength into the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 435
miles (705 km) mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on
Thursday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are affecting Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands, and are
expected to reach portions of the east coast of the United States
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 210852
TCDAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

Epsilon has maintained an eye in infrared satellite images during
the past few hours, although a 0522 UTC AMSR microwave image
indicated that the eastern and southern eyewall were a little thin
at the time. Still, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the
UW-CIMSS ADT, unanimously increased to T4.5/77 kt, and Epsilon's
intensity is therefore set at 75 kt. By definition, Epsilon has
rapidly intensified, its intensity increasing more than 30 kt
during the past 24 hours.

As expected, Epsilon has turned toward the west-northwest with an
initial motion of 300/12 kt, in response to a mid-tropospheric ridge
which has built to the north of the hurricane. This ridge is
expected to cede control to another ridge positioning itself east of
Epsilon during the next 24 hours, which should steer the cyclone
back to the northwest and then north Thursday and Thursday night.
Epsilon is then expected to become embedded in the mid-latitude
westerlies this weekend, accelerating northeastward toward the north
Atlantic by the end of the forecast period. The GFS and HWRF
models are showing some deviation to the east and west,
respectively, of the other tightly packed guidance during the
expected recurvature to the east of Bermuda. However, given that
that there is little spread among the other models, the NHC track
prediction remains close to the simple and corrected multi-model
consensus aids.

Relatively low vertical shear could foster some additional
strengthening today, but oceanic heat content values are expected
to fall to zero in 12-24 hours, which is likely to temper how much
intensification can occur. During the first few days, the NHC
intensity forecast lies between the nearly steady-state HCCA and
IVCN aids and the slightly higher SHIPS and LGEM models. This
forecast allows for some modest strengthening but generally shows
little change in strength for the next 3 days. Some gradual
weakening is anticipated on days 4 and 5 as Epsilon merges with a
cold front and becomes extratropical, but it is likely to still be
a powerful cyclone as it moves toward the north Atlantic at the end
of the forecast period.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday,
when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the
island as a hurricane.

2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the
coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the
Leeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread to
portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada
during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 28.9N 58.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 29.5N 59.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 30.4N 60.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 31.8N 61.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 33.1N 61.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 34.3N 61.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 35.8N 61.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 40.0N 55.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 46.0N 39.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 210852
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

...EPSILON HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED...
...BUT THIS STRENGTHENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN TO EASE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 58.3W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 58.3 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
motion at a slower forward speed is expected through today. A turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward
the north by Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of
Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda
Thursday afternoon or evening.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible
today, followed by little change in strength into the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 435 miles
(705 km) mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on
Thursday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are affecting Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands, and are
expected to reach portions of the east coast of the United States
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 210851
TCMAT2

HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
0900 UTC WED OCT 21 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 58.3W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......380NE 80SE 50SW 300NW.
12 FT SEAS..750NE 390SE 510SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 58.3W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 57.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 29.5N 59.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...310NE 100SE 70SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 30.4N 60.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...250NE 140SE 90SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.8N 61.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 90SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 33.1N 61.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.3N 61.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...210NE 160SE 110SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.8N 61.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...230NE 180SE 140SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 40.0N 55.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 46.0N 39.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 58.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 210545
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
200 AM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

...EPSILON MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 57.6W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 57.6 West. Epsilon
is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue this morning, followed by a slightly
slower west-northwestward motion later today. A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected on Thursday. On the forecast track,
Epsilon is forecast to move closer to Bermuda on Thursday and make
its closest approach to the island Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km), mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Thursday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect
Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 210236
TCDAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020

The tropical cyclone has continued to become better organized on
satellite images this evening, with the Central Dense Overcast
becoming increasingly symmetric. Also the eye, which was
intermittently apparent earlier in the evening, has become better
defined. Epsilon is being upgraded to a hurricane, consistent with
a Dvorak intensity estimate from SAB. This is the tenth hurricane
of the season.

Epsilon is moving northwestward, or around 310/11 kt, but beginning
to turn more toward a west-northwestward heading. The hurricane is
expected to move generally west-northwestward on Wednesday in
response to a mid-level high pressure system to its north and
northwest. In a couple of days, the high is forecast to shift
eastward and this should cause Epsilon to turn toward the
north-northwest and pass to the east of Bermuda, with the center
coming closest to the island in around 48 hours. In 3 to 4
days, the hurricane should turn northward and move through a break
in the subtropical ridge. By the end of the forecast period, the
system should accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward as it
begins to move into the higher-latitude westerlies. The official
forecast track is very close to both the previous NHC prediction
and the corrected multi-model dynamical consensus.

Delta is expected to strengthen some more as it moves over
marginally warm waters and within an environment of moderate
vertical shear during the next day or so. In 36 to 48 hours, the
oceanic heat content below the cyclone is expected to become very
low which should limit further intensification. The official
intensity forecast is a little above the latest model consensus.
By day 5, the global models show the cyclone interacting and
merging with a frontal zone so the system will likely be
extratropical by that time.


Key Message:

1. Epsilon is forecast to remain at hurricane strength by the time
it makes its closest approach to Bermuda late Thursday. While
it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon's track
and intensity near the island, tropical storm conditions are
possible on Bermuda beginning Thursday with dangerous surf
conditions also likely.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 28.5N 56.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 29.2N 58.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 29.9N 59.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 31.0N 60.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 32.2N 61.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 33.5N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 34.6N 62.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 38.4N 58.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 44.0N 45.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 210235
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020

...EPSILON STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 56.8W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 56.8 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a slightly
slower west-northwestward motion on Wednesday. A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected on Thursday. On the forecast track,
Epsilon is forecast to move closer to Bermuda on Thursday and make
its closest approach to the island on Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next day or two.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles
(555 km), mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Thursday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect
Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 210235
TCMAT2

HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
0300 UTC WED OCT 21 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 56.8W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......300NE 90SE 50SW 300NW.
12 FT SEAS..800NE 360SE 520SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 56.8W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 56.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 29.2N 58.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...300NE 100SE 60SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.9N 59.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...250NE 120SE 80SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.0N 60.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...230NE 130SE 90SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 32.2N 61.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 33.5N 61.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 34.6N 62.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...220NE 150SE 120SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 38.4N 58.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 44.0N 45.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 56.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 202332
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Epsilon Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
800 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020

...EPSILON LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 56.3W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was
located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 56.3 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a slightly
slower west-northwestward or northwestward motion on Wednesday and
Thursday. On the forecast track, Epsilon is forecast to move closer
to Bermuda on Thursday and make its closest approach to the island
on Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days,
and Epsilon is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or early
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km),
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Thursday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect
Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 202049
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020

Epsilon?--s structure has greatly improved this afternoon. Deep
convection is wrapped more tightly around the center, and a small
central dense overcast is evident in recent satellite imagery.
Overall, the cyclone appears better organized and more tropical in
nature as it fends off weak to moderate deep-layer shear and some
dry mid-level air in its surrounding environment. There are even
some hints of an eye-like feature trying to develop in recent
visible and microwave imagery. A 14Z ASCAT-B overpass showed several
45-50 kt wind barbs in the northern semicircle of Epsilon, and its
organization has improved since then. A T3.5 Dvorak classification
from SAB supports raising the initial intensity to 55 kt with this
advisory. Epsilon is a large cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward as far as 300 n mi in its northern semicircle.

The cyclone has accelerated northwestward today, and its estimated
motion is a somewhat uncertain 320/12 kt. Epsilon should continue to
move northwestward or west-northwestward for the next several days
as it is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and east. The
tightly clustered guidance envelope has shifted slightly westward
and is faster with the storm motion through about 72 h, and these
trends are reflected in the official NHC track forecast. Epsilon is
now forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda late Thursday
night before recurving ahead of an upper-level trough that should
move over the western Atlantic this weekend. By day 5, Epsilon could
be near the beginning of its extratropical transition as it races
northeastward across the central Atlantic.

Epsilon has strengthened today despite some negative environmental
factors including weak to moderate deep-layer shear and dry air
noted in water vapor imagery along the southwestern periphery of the
storm. Given recent satellite trends and little expected change in
the environmental conditions during the next day or so, additional
strengthening appears likely. The official NHC track forecast lies
well above the guidance consensus in the near term and most closely
follows the SHIPS output, which brings Epsilon to hurricane strength
overnight. As the cyclone gains latitude and moves over waters with
lower oceanic heat content beyond 48 h, the intensity is expected to
level off, and the NHC forecast better aligns with the ICON and HCCA
aids through the rest of the forecast period.


Key Message:

1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it
makes its closest approach to Bermuda late Thursday or early
Friday. While it is too soon to determine the exact details of
Epsilon's track and intensity near the island, tropical storm
conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Thursday with dangerous
surf conditions also likely.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 27.9N 55.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 28.8N 57.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 29.3N 59.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 30.3N 60.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 31.6N 61.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 33.0N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 34.0N 61.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 36.7N 60.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 42.0N 51.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 202046
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020

...EPSILON CONTINUES STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 55.8W
ABOUT 615 MI...995 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was
located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 55.8 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a slightly
slower west-northwestward or northwestward motion on Wednesday and
Thursday. On the forecast track, Epsilon is forecast to move closer
to Bermuda on Thursday and make its closest approach to the island
on Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next couple of days, and Epsilon is forecast to become a hurricane
tonight or early Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km),
primarily to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Thursday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect
Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 202045
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
2100 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 55.8W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......280NE 90SE 30SW 300NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 150SE 360SW 510NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 55.8W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 55.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 28.8N 57.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 30SE 10SW 60NW.
34 KT...300NE 100SE 60SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 29.3N 59.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...280NE 110SE 80SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 30.3N 60.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...230NE 130SE 90SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.6N 61.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 33.0N 61.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.0N 61.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...220NE 150SE 120SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 36.7N 60.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 42.0N 51.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 55.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 201500
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020

A curved band of deep convection persists near and over the center
of Epsilon this morning. The cyclone is experiencing southwesterly
vertical wind shear as it interacts with an upper-level trough to
its southwest, and the storm still has a hybrid-like appearance in
satellite imagery with a band of convection well to the east and
northeast of the center. Water vapor imagery indicates that some dry
mid-level air is impinging on the south and west sides of the
circulation. A very recent ASCAT-A overpass shows several 45-kt
vectors in the southeast quadrant, and it is certainly possible that
the intensity could be near 50 kt based on the known undersampling
issues. The initial intensity is raised to 45 kt with this advisory,
which is consistent with a T3.0 Dvorak classification from SAB.
Epsilon remains a large cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward more than 250 n mi in the northern semicircle.

Although Epsilon was drifting northeastward earlier this morning,
recent visible satellite imagery suggest Epsilon is beginning to
turn north-northwestward or northwestward with a faster forward
speed as a mid-level ridge builds to its north and east. This
general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.
Beyond 72 h, a deep-layer trough moving eastward into the western
Atlantic should cause Epsilon to turn northward and then accelerate
northeastward near the end of the forecast period. The track
guidance remains in good agreement, and only minor adjustments were
made to the previous track in line with the consensus aids
(excluding the outlying HWRF solution at this time). Epsilon is
still forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda on Friday.

The intensity forecast remains tricky since moderate
south-southwesterly shear is expected to persist for another 12-18 h
as Epsilon continues to interact with a nearby upper-level trough.
By the time the deep-layer shear abates, Epsilon will be gaining
latitude and moving over waters with lower oceanic heat content.
Additionally, intrusions of environmental dry air could inhibit or
at least slow the development process. Regardless, the global models
show fairly significant deepening of the cyclone in the coming days,
and the intensity guidance consensus still supports at least gradual
strengthening. Therefore, little change was made to the official NHC
intensity forecast, which still shows Epsilon becoming a hurricane
late this week.

Key Message:

1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it
makes its closest approach to Bermuda late this week. While it is
too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and
intensity near the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from
wind, rainfall, and storm surge on Bermuda. A Tropical Storm Watch
is in effect for the island.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 26.5N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 27.4N 56.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 28.2N 58.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 28.9N 59.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 30.0N 60.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 31.4N 60.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 32.4N 61.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 34.5N 61.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 39.5N 55.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 201451
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020

...EPSILON TURNS NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 55.0W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was
located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 55.0 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
northwestward motion with a slightly faster forward speed is
forecast over the next couple of days. On the forecast track,
Epsilon is forecast to move closer to Bermuda on Thursday and make
its closest approach to the island on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days,
and Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength by
Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 300 miles (480 km),
primarily to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Thursday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect
Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 201451
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
1500 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 55.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......260NE 60SE 50SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 120SE 270SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 55.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 54.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.4N 56.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...270NE 90SE 60SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 28.2N 58.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...270NE 100SE 60SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 28.9N 59.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...240NE 120SE 70SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 30.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 130SE 80SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 31.4N 60.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 32.4N 61.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 34.5N 61.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 39.5N 55.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 55.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 200848
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020

Epsilon continues to have a non-standard appearance in satellite
imagery this morning. While an area of convection is near and over
the center, the center is also near the western end of a baroclinic
zone, and that is giving the storm the look of a occluded
extratropical low. In addition, water vapor and air mass imagery
indicate that an upper-level trough is close to the system in the
southwestern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates have not
changed significantly since the last advisory, so the initial
intensity is unchanged at 40 kt. Epsilon remains a large cyclone
with gale-force or tropical-storm-force winds extending outward
more than 250 nmi in the northern semicircle.

The center has drifted eastward since the last advisory, with the
initial motion a somewhat uncertain 075/3. A northward to
northwestward motion is expected to begin shortly as Epsilon
becomes embedded in a large mid-level low over the central
Atlantic. Later today, a mid-level ridge is forecast to build to
the north and east of the cyclone, forcing Epsilon generally toward
the northwest through about 72 h. After that time, a deep-layer
trough and associated frontal system moving eastward into the
western Atlantic should cause the cyclone to recurve to the
northeast at an increasing forward speed. The guidance is in good
agreement with the scenario, and the new forecast track, which has
only minor adjustments from the previous track, lies near the
various consensus models. On the forecast track, Epsilon should
make its closest approach to Bermuda on Friday.

There are several conflicting factors in the intensity forecast.
First, while the cyclone is expected to move over relatively warm
sea surface temperatures, the oceanic heat content along the
forecast track drops to low levels after 36 h. Second, while the
overall shear is forecast to be light to moderate through the
forecast period, Epsilon is interacting with the aforementioned
upper-level trough, and the global models suggest it will interact
with another trough around the 72 h point. These troughs should
provide upper-level divergence to aid strengthening, but also may
feed cool and dry air into the cyclone, which would be a negative
factor. The intensity guidance continues to show gradual
strengthening despite the negative factors, with the global models
showing fairy low central pressures during the 72-120 h period.
Based on this, the intensity forecast continues to call for Epsilon
to become a hurricane, and the new forecast has only minor tweaks
from the previous forecast. Extratropical transition will likely
be underway by 120 h, but likely will not finish until after the
end of the forecast period.

Key Message:

1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when
it approaches Bermuda late this week. While it is too soon to
determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near
the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall,
and storm surge on Bermuda, and interests there should closely
monitor the progress of Epsilon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 25.6N 54.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 26.6N 55.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 27.8N 57.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 28.5N 59.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 29.4N 60.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 30.6N 60.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 31.6N 61.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 33.5N 62.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 38.0N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 200847
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020

...EPSILON DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 54.7W
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warning in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Epsilon.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was
located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 54.7 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the east-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward
the north and northwest is expected later today, with a general
northwestward motion expected through Thursday. On the forecast
track, Epsilon is forecast to approach Bermuda on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days,
and Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength by
Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect
Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 200847
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
0900 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EPSILON.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 54.7W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......240NE 60SE 50SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 60SE 270SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 54.7W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 55.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 26.6N 55.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...250NE 90SE 50SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 27.8N 57.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...270NE 100SE 50SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.5N 59.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...270NE 110SE 60SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 29.4N 60.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 70NW.
34 KT...210NE 100SE 80SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 30.6N 60.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 31.6N 61.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 33.5N 62.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 38.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 54.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 200239
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 19 2020

Water vapor imagery indicates that Epsilon has been interacting with
a shear line/dissipating cold front from the north and with a
negatively tilted upper-level trough from the south. Furthermore, a
pronounced dry slot has developed in the eastern semicircle, which
has severed the convective band that had been wrapping about
three-fourths of the way around the circulation. Overall, the cloud
pattern more closely resembles that of an occluded extratropical
low, with a small inner-core tropical feature. A 20/0025Z ASCAT-A
pass indicated a small fetch of mostly straight-flow 40-kt winds
located 60-90 nmi northeast of the well-defined surface center.
Given the distance from the low-level center and lack of any
significant curvature to those winds, undersampling is probably not
occurring. Therefore, the initial intensity is being held at 40 kt
for this advisory, which is consistent with satellite
classifications of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT, and
a 19/2202Z SATCON estimate of 42 kt. Epsilon is a large cyclone with
gale-force or tropical-storm-force winds extending outward more than
250 nmi in the northern semicircle.

The initial motion estimate is 360/02 kt. No significant changes
were made to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Epsilon is
expected to meander within weak steering currents well to the
southeast of Bermuda for the next 12 h or so. By late Tuesday, a
ridge is forecast to build to the north and east of the cyclone,
forcing Epsilon generally toward the northwest through Friday. As an
upper-level trough and associated frontal system approach the
cyclone, Epsilon is expected to turn sharply northeastward between
the trough and the ridge by late Friday, and accelerate
northeastward thereafter over over the north Atlantic. The latest
NHC model guidance is coming into better agreement, with a tight
clustering of he various consensus models lying essentially along
the previous advisory track. On the forecast track, Epsilon should
make its closest approach to Bermuda on Friday.

Epsilon is forecast to remain over sea-surface temperatures (SST) of
at least 27C the next 36 h or so and, when coupled with 200-mb
temperatures of -55C, sufficient instability will exist to continue
to allow for deep convection to be generated both in the inner- and
outer-core regions of the cyclone. Thus, gradual strengthening is
forecast during that time. However, by 48 h and continuing through
72 h, SSTs cool to near 26.5C and the depth of the relatively warm
water becomes quite shallow, as indciated by upper-ocean heat
content values dropping to near zero by 72 h. The large and
expansive wind field should result in cold upwelling both ahead of
and beneath the inner-core wind field, which is likely to temper the
intensification process. This may be reflected in the past couple of
HRWF runs which no longer make Epsilon a hurricane by the time the
cyclone approaches Bermuda on Friday. For now, the intensity
forecast has only been lowered slightly since there may be some
baroclinic interaction with an approaching upper-level trough that
could offset the cooler waters. Epsilon could be undergoing
extratropical transition by the 120-h forecast period, but for now
the system will be shown as still being tropical since it will be
located over marginal SSTs near 26C at that time.

Key Message:

1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when
it approaches Bermuda late this week. While it is too soon to
determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near
the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall,
and storm surge on Bermuda, and interests there should closely
monitor the progress of Epsilon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 25.3N 55.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 26.1N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 27.5N 56.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 28.3N 58.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 29.1N 59.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 30.4N 60.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 31.3N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 32.9N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 36.4N 60.3W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 200239
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 PM AST Mon Oct 19 2020

...EPSILON MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 55.3W
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warning in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Epsilon.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was
located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 55.3 West. Epsilon is
drifting toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this general
motion should continue tonight and early Tuesday. A northwestward
motion is expected to begin by Tuesday afternoon and continue
through midweek. On the forecast track, Epsilon is forecast to
approach Bermuda on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of
days, and Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength by
Wednesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect
Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 200239
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
0300 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EPSILON.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 55.3W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......240NE 60SE 0SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..600NE 60SE 240SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 55.3W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 55.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.1N 55.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...250NE 90SE 0SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.5N 56.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...270NE 100SE 40SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 28.3N 58.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...270NE 110SE 60SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.1N 59.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 70NW.
34 KT...210NE 100SE 80SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 30.4N 60.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 31.3N 61.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 32.9N 62.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 36.4N 60.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 55.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 192051
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 PM AST Mon Oct 19 2020

Earlier this afternoon, Epsilon had a hybrid-type structure in
satellite imagery, with a partially exposed center and a broken
convective band that wrapped around the northern and eastern sides
of the storm. However, recent satellite imagery shows a small
convective burst near the center that gives Epsilon a more tropical
appearance. ASCAT-B/C passes from this morning indicate the system
has a large and asymmetric wind field, with 34-kt winds extending
over 200 nm away from the center in the northern semicircle. This
is, in part, attributable to the environmental pressure gradient
with a strong high pressure ridge centered east of the Canadian
Maritimes. The initial intensity is raised to 40 kt with this
advisory, supported by a T2.5 subjective Dvorak classification from
TAFB and a 37-kt objective 14Z SATCON estimate.

Warm sea-surface temperatures and moderate southwesterly vertical
wind shear should allow for gradual strengthening over the next day
or so. By 36-48 h, a period of weaker wind shear should allow
Epsilon to continue strengthening while becoming better organized
and eventually developing a more symmetric wind field. There is
still increasing spread in the intensity guidance beyond 48 h, with
a split between the stronger statistical-dynamical guidance and the
weaker regional hurricane models. Given these mixed signals, little
change was made to the intensity forecast with this advisory. The
official NHC intensity forecast lies on the higher end of the
guidance consensus, but remains lower than SHIPS/LGEM. The official
forecast now calls for Epsilon to become a hurricane on Wednesday.

Epsilon remains nearly stationary as it meanders over the central
Atlantic under weak steering currents. The cyclone should begin
moving slowly northward tonight, then turn northwestward with a
faster forward speed through midweek as a mid- to upper-level ridge
is expected to build to the north and northeast of Epsilon. The
current NHC forecast track shows Epsilon making its closest approach
to Bermuda on Friday. By this weekend, the cyclone should begin
turning northward ahead of an upper-level trough expected to move
off the northeastern U.S. coast. Most of the track guidance is
tightly clustered for the next several days, except for the latest
HWRF. The track guidance has shifted slightly to the right, and so
the NHC track forecast has been adjusted similarly to reflect the
latest guidance consensus.

Key Message:

1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when
it approaches Bermuda late this week. While it is too soon to
determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near
the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall,
and storm surge on Bermuda, and interests there should closely
monitor the progress of Epsilon.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 25.5N 55.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 25.9N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 27.0N 56.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 28.1N 57.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 28.8N 59.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 29.8N 60.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 31.1N 61.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 32.8N 62.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 35.5N 62.3W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 192047
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 PM AST Mon Oct 19 2020

...EPSILON REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 55.5W
ABOUT 730 MI...1180 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warning in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 55.5 West. Epsilon is
nearly stationary. A slow northward motion is expected tonight,
followed by a northwestward or west-northwestward motion with an
increase in forward speed through midweek. On the forecast track,
Epsilon is forecast to approach Bermuda on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days,
and Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength on
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km),
primarily to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect Bermuda
for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 192046
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
2100 UTC MON OCT 19 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 55.5W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......240NE 60SE 0SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 60SE 30SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 55.5W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 55.4W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 25.9N 55.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...250NE 90SE 0SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 27.0N 56.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...270NE 100SE 40SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 28.1N 57.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...270NE 110SE 60SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.8N 59.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 70NW.
34 KT...210NE 100SE 80SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 29.8N 60.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.1N 61.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 32.8N 62.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 35.5N 62.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 55.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 191456
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020

Although the center of the system has become exposed over the past
few hours, it is very well defined. In addition, the convective
banding over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation
has continued to improve. Based on a Dvorak classification of T2.5
from TAFB, the system is upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm. ASCAT-A
has missed the circulation, but ASCAT-B caught the far eastern edge
of the wind field and indicates winds of 30-35 kt in that area. The
tropical storm is located within an environment of moderate
southwesterly to westerly vertical wind shear and over warm waters.
These conditions should allow for gradual strengthening over the
next day or so. By 48 hours, decreasing vertical wind shear could
allow for more significant intensification, and there is increasing
spread in the intensity guidance by that time. The statistical
guidance is at the upper-end of the envelope while the regional
hurricane models are lower. The NHC forecast is a bit on the
conservative side for now, and lies just above the intensity
consensus aids. Given the expected decrease in shear, some upward
adjustment in the intensity forecast may be required in subsequent
advisories.

Epsilon is meandering over the central Atlantic as it is located
within an area of weak steering currents near the base of a mid- to
upper-level trough that extends southwestward from the northeastern
Atlantic. A mid- to upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the
western and central Atlantic to the north of the system by midweek,
and this ridge should slide eastward later in the week. These
changes in the synoptic pattern should cause Epsilon to begin moving
west-northwestward to northwestward at a faster rate of speed by
midweek. The models are again in fairly good agreement and the NHC
track is near the center of the guidance envelope.

Key Message:

1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when
it approaches Bermuda late this week. While it is too soon to
determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near
the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall,
and storm surge on Bermuda, and interests there should closely
monitor the progress of Epsilon.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 25.6N 55.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 25.8N 55.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 26.4N 55.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 27.6N 56.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 28.3N 58.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 29.1N 59.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 30.2N 60.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 32.3N 62.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 34.5N 63.3W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 191453
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM EPSILON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 55.3W
ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warning in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was
located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 55.3 West. Epsilon is
stationary and little overall motion is expected through tonight.
A slow west-northwestward to northwestward motion should begin on
Tuesday, and this motion should continue through midweek.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and
Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength by early
Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
primarily to the northeast and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 191452
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
1500 UTC MON OCT 19 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 55.3W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 0SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 60SE 0SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 55.3W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 55.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 25.8N 55.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.4N 55.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 40SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.6N 56.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...210NE 90SE 40SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 28.3N 58.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 90SE 60SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.1N 59.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 100SE 80SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 30.2N 60.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 120SE 90SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 32.3N 62.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 34.5N 63.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 55.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 191205
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven Special Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
800 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020

Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure over the
central Atlantic has become significantly better organized
overnight. The low-level center is located near the western edge of
the convection, but the system has enough organization to be
declared a tropical cyclone. Therefore, advisories are being
initiated at this time. The system appears to be near
tropical-storm strength, but since earlier classifications were just
below that intensity the system is being started as a 30-kt tropical
depression. The system appears more tropical than subtropical
since it is no longer co-located with an upper-level low and it
appears to have a fairly small radius of maximum winds. Therefore,
it has been designated a tropical cyclone. Scatterometer data
later this morning should provide a better assessment of the
system's intensity. The depression is located over SSTs over 27-28
degrees Celsius and within an area of moderate westerly shear.
These conditions should allow for gradual strengthening over the
next day or so. After that time, the shear is expected to decrease
and continued strengthen is anticipated. The NHC intensity
forecasts calls for the system to become a hurricane within 72
hours, and is in best agreement with the HCCA and ICON intensity
consensus models.

The depression is located in an area of weak steering currents near
the base of a mid- to upper-level trough that extends southwestward
from the northeastern Atlantic. As a result, little net motion is
expected through tonight. A mid- to upper-level ridge is forecast
to build over the western and central Atlantic to the north of the
system by midweek. As the ridge slides eastward later this week,
the cyclone should move west-northwestward to northwestward at a
faster rate of speed. This motion will bring the system close to
Bermuda by late week and the interests on that island should
closely monitor the progress of the cyclone. The dynamical models
are in relatively good agreement on the overall scenario and the
NHC track forecast is near the center of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1200Z 25.8N 55.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 25.8N 55.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 26.0N 55.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 26.9N 55.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 28.0N 57.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 28.6N 59.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 29.5N 60.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 31.7N 62.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 33.5N 63.8W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 191153
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven Special Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
800 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 55.5W
ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warning in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Seven was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 55.5
West. The depression is stationary and little overall motion is
expected through tonight. A slow west-northwestward to
northwestward motion should begin on Tuesday, and this motion
should continue through midweek.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or
tonight and be at or near hurricane strength by early Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 191153
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
1200 UTC MON OCT 19 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 55.5W AT 19/1200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 55.5W AT 19/1200Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 55.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 25.8N 55.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 26.0N 55.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 26.9N 55.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 28.0N 57.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 80SE 40SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.6N 59.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 90SE 60SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 29.5N 60.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 90SE 90SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 31.7N 62.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 33.5N 63.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 55.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>