Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for TAUKTAE-21
in India, Pakistan

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 181800

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR

VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 18 MAY 2021.



PART-I STORM WARNING



THE CYCLONIC STORM TAUKTAE (PRONOUNCED AS TAU'TE) OVER SAURASHTRA
MOVED NORTHNORTHEASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 23 KMPH DURING PAST
06 HOURS, AND LAY CENTRED

AT 1200 HOURS UTC OF TODAY, THE 18TH MAY, 2021 OVER GUJARAT REGION
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 72.3 DEG E, ABOUT 120 KM SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF DEESA (GUJARAT), AND 35 KM

WEST OF AHMEDABAD AND 80 KM EASTNORTHEAST OF SURENDRANAGAR (GUJARAT).
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHNORTHEASTWARDS AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY
INTO A DEEP

DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 03HOURS AND INTO A DEPRESSION DURING THE
SUBSEQUENT 06 HOURS.

THE REMNANT OF THE SYSTEM IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS
ACROSS RAJASTHAN TO WEST UTTAR PRADESH DURING 19TH AND 20TH MAY (.)



PART-II (.)



A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS BEC W/SW-LY 10/20 KTS
TO THE E OF 60 DEG E(.)

II)WEATHER: WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM(.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 55 DEG E: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)

2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)



A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS BEC W/SW-LY 10/20 KTS
TO THE E OF 60 DEG E(.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 55 DEG E: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)

2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)



ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E

TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 68 DEG E TO N OF 20 DEG N: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)

2)REST AREA: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)



A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS

1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 20 DEG N TO THE E OF 65 DEG E:
15/25 KTS(.)

2)REST AREA: SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG N : WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG N: 3-2 NM(.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 70 DEG E TO N OF 20 DEG N: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)

2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.0 MTR (.)



BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E

AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E ANDTHENCE
S-WARDS

TO EQUATOR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 90 DEG E: S/ SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)

4)REST AREA: CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)



A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 4 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 4 DEG N: 3-2 NM(.)

2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)



BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N : 4-3 NM(.)

2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)



A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N : 4-3 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)


ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 180900
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 18 MAY 2021.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM TAUKTAE (PRONOUNCED AS TAUTE) OVER
SAURASHTRA MOVED NORTHNORTHEASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 10 KMPH
DURING PAST 06 HOURS, WEAKENED INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AND LAY
CENTRED AT 0830 HOURS IST OF TODAY, THE 18TH MAY, 2021 OVER
SAURASHTRA NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 71.3 DEG E,
ABOUT 10 KM EAST OFAMRELI, 130 KM SOUTHSOUTHWEST OF SURENDRANAGAR
AND 210 KM SOUTHWEST OF AHMEDABAD.IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
NORTHNORTHEASTWARDS AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM
DURING NEXT 03 HOURS AND INTO A DEPRESSION BY TODAY EVENING.
THE REMNANT OF THE SYSTEM IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS
ACROSS RAJASTHAN TO WEST UTTAR PRADESHDURING 19TH AND 20TH MAY. (.)

PART-II (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS BEC W/SW-LY 10/20 KTS
TO THE E OF 55 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 55 DEG E: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5(.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS BEC W/SW-LY 10/20 KTS
TO THE E OF 55 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 55 DEG E: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5(.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 68 DEG E TO N OF 20 DEG N: CYCLONIC
35/45 KTS (.)
2)N OF 20 DEG N TO THE E OF 65 TO 68 DEG E: 15/25 KTS(.)
3)REST AREA: SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO THE E OF 70 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 TO 70 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO THE E OF 70 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 TO 70 DEG E: 4-3 NM(.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 68 DEG E TO N OF 20 DEG N: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.0-4.0 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 20 DEG N TO THE E OF 65 DEG E:
15/25 KTS(.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE E OF 55 DEG E : WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE E OF 55 DEG E : 3-2 NM(.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 70 DEG E TO N OF 20 DEG N: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E ANDTHENCE
S-WARDS
TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 90 DEG E: S/ SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
4)REST AREA: CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 4 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 4 DEG N: 3-2 NM(.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO THE W OF 95 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO THE W OF 95 DEG E: 3-2 NM(.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N : WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N : 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (.)=

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 172100
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 210517192427
2021051718 01A TAUKTAE 015 01 360 08 SATL 020
T000 208N 0713E 110 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 065 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 135 SE QD 115 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 225N 0716E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 045 NE QD 100 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 244N 0725E 050
T036 262N 0739E 030
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 20.8N 71.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 71.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 22.5N 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 24.4N 72.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 26.2N 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 71.4E.
17MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
140 NM NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 01A HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WITH A 20NM EYE FEATURE, SURROUNDED BY A SOLID RING OF COLD CLOUD TOPS IN THE BD ENHANCEMENT. THE SYSTEM WAS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE SHORELINE AT THE 171800Z HOUR, VERY NEAR TO JAFARABAD, INDIA. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 20NM EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110 KTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, REFLECTING THE IMPROVED INFRARED SIGNATURE, COLDER CLOUD TOPS AND WARMER EYE TEMP. MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KTS) FROM PGTW, T5.5 (102 KTS) FROM DEMS, AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T6.0, LEND ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE, WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VWS AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND HOWEVER, IT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND RAPIDLY INCREASING VWS AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF KHAMBAHT THROUGH TAU 12 EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM ITSELF WILL BE CENTERED WELL INLAND. TC 01A IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36 AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ARAVALLI MOUNTAINS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z
IS 38 FEET.//
0121051212 94N 672E 25
0121051218 94N 687E 20
0121051300 95N 700E 20
0121051306 97N 710E 25
0121051312 101N 714E 30
0121051318 105N 716E 30
0121051400 109N 718E 30
0121051406 114N 720E 40
0121051412 119N 722E 40
0121051418 123N 725E 45
0121051500 128N 730E 50
0121051500 128N 730E 50
0121051506 135N 733E 55
0121051506 135N 733E 55
0121051512 140N 733E 60
0121051512 140N 733E 60
0121051518 144N 731E 65
0121051518 144N 731E 65
0121051518 144N 731E 65
0121051600 150N 729E 75
0121051600 150N 729E 75
0121051600 150N 729E 75
0121051606 159N 728E 90
0121051606 159N 728E 90
0121051606 159N 728E 90
0121051612 168N 726E 100
0121051612 168N 726E 100
0121051612 168N 726E 100
0121051618 178N 720E 110
0121051618 178N 720E 110
0121051618 178N 720E 110
0121051700 184N 718E 120
0121051700 184N 718E 120
0121051700 184N 718E 120
0121051706 192N 714E 115
0121051706 192N 714E 115
0121051706 192N 714E 115
0121051712 200N 713E 110
0121051712 200N 713E 110
0121051712 200N 713E 110
0121051718 208N 713E 110
0121051718 208N 713E 110
0121051718 208N 713E 110
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 20.8N 71.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 71.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 22.5N 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 24.4N 72.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 26.2N 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 71.4E.
17MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
140 NM NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 01A HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WITH A 20NM EYE FEATURE, SURROUNDED BY A
SOLID RING OF COLD CLOUD TOPS IN THE BD ENHANCEMENT. THE SYSTEM WAS
IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE SHORELINE AT THE 171800Z HOUR, VERY
NEAR TO JAFARABAD, INDIA. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 20NM EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110 KTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE,
REFLECTING THE IMPROVED INFRARED SIGNATURE, COLDER CLOUD TOPS AND
WARMER EYE TEMPERATURE. MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KTS) FROM PGTW, T5.5 (102 KTS) FROM DEMS, AND
AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T6.0, LEND ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE, WITH LOW (10-
15 KTS) VWS AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS OVER
LAND HOWEVER, IT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND RAPIDLY INCREASING VWS AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
IN THE GULF OF KHAMBAHT THROUGH TAU 12 EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM ITSELF
WILL BE CENTERED WELL INLAND. TC 01A IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36 AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ARAVALLI
MOUNTAINS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z
IS 38 FEET.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 171800


GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR

VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 17 MAY 2021.



PART-I STORM WARNING



THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM TAUKTAE (PRONOUNCED AS TAUTE)
OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA CONTINUED TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 17 KNOTS DURING PAST
06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 HOURS UTC OF TODAY, THE 17 TH MAY,
2021 OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR
LATITUDE 20.1 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 71.3 DEG E, ABOUT 195 KM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, 80 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIU, 130 KM
SOUTHEAST OF VERAVAL (GUJARAT). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS GUJARAT COAST BETWEEN PORBANDAR AND
MAHUVA (BHAVNAGAR DISTRICT) TO THE EAST OF DIU WITH A MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 155-165 KMPH GUSTING TO 185 KMPH. AS PER THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS BASED ON 1930 IST, THE LANDFALL PROCESS HAS
STARTED. OUTER CLOUD BAND OF THE SYSTEM LIES OVER COASTAL SAURASHTRA.
THE LANDFALL PROCESS WILL CONTINUE DURING NEXT 2 HOURS. (.)



PART-II (.)



A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER: 1) N OF 3 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E: WIDEPSPREAD
RA/TS(.)

2)W OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1) N OF 3 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM(.)

2)W OF 60 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)

3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM(.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 3.0-4.0 MTR (.)



A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/25 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 55 DEG E: WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 55 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.5-4.0 MTR (.)



ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E

TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 66 DEG E TO N OF 16 DEG N: CYCLONIC
60/85 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1) E OF 69 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

2)S OF 13 DEG N TO THE W OF 67 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS(.)

3)REST AREA: FAIR(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1) E OF 69 DEG E : 3-2 NM(.)

2)S OF 13 DEG N TO THE W OF 67 DEG E: 6-4 NM(.)

3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM(.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 65 DEG E TO N OF 13 DEG N: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)

2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.5 MTR (.)



A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS

1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS
(.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: REST AREA: 2.0-3.0 MTR (.)



BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E

AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E ANDTHENCE
S-WARDS

TO EQUATOR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.5 MTR (.)



A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM(.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.5 MTR (.)



BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO THE E OF 85 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

2)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE W OF 85 DEG E: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)

3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO THE E OF 85 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE W OF 85 DEG E: 8-6 NM (.)

3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-2.0 MTR (.)



A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N : 4-3 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-2.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 171500
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 210517130623
2021051712 01A TAUKTAE 014 01 355 08 SATL 010
T000 200N 0712E 100 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 145 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T012 216N 0712E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 234N 0718E 045 R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 252N 0730E 030
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 20.0N 71.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 71.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 21.6N 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 23.4N 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 25.2N 73.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 71.2E.
17MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
113 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 171200Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z
AND 181500Z.//
0121051212 94N 672E 25
0121051218 94N 687E 20
0121051300 95N 700E 20
0121051306 97N 710E 25
0121051312 101N 714E 30
0121051318 105N 716E 30
0121051400 109N 718E 30
0121051406 114N 720E 40
0121051412 119N 722E 40
0121051418 123N 725E 45
0121051500 128N 730E 50
0121051500 128N 730E 50
0121051506 135N 733E 55
0121051506 135N 733E 55
0121051512 140N 733E 60
0121051512 140N 733E 60
0121051518 144N 731E 65
0121051518 144N 731E 65
0121051518 144N 731E 65
0121051600 150N 729E 75
0121051600 150N 729E 75
0121051600 150N 729E 75
0121051606 159N 728E 90
0121051606 159N 728E 90
0121051606 159N 728E 90
0121051612 168N 726E 100
0121051612 168N 726E 100
0121051612 168N 726E 100
0121051618 178N 720E 110
0121051618 178N 720E 110
0121051618 178N 720E 110
0121051700 184N 718E 120
0121051700 184N 718E 120
0121051700 184N 718E 120
0121051706 192N 713E 115
0121051706 192N 713E 115
0121051706 192N 713E 115
0121051712 200N 712E 100
0121051712 200N 712E 100
0121051712 200N 712E 100
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 20.0N 71.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 71.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 21.6N 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 23.4N 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 25.2N 73.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 71.2E.
17MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 113
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) ALONG WITH THE ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE CONTINUAL LAND INTERACTION ALONG THE INDIAN
COAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE 10-NM RAGGED EYE AND A TIMELY 171130Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DEMS
T5.0/90KTS, SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE PGTW
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.5/102KTS, THE SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON)
ESTIMATE OF 117KTS, AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) OF
T6.0/115KTS. ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). TC 01A
WILL BEGIN TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR
JAFARABAD, INDIA THROUGH TAU 12. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
IN INTENSITY AS IT ENTERS AN AREA OF GREATER VWS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
TERRAIN INTERACTION AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS NEARSHORE AS IT TRACKS
NORTH. AFTER LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND THE HIGHER VWS, LEADING TO THE OVERALL
DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH AN EVEN AND GRADUAL SPREAD TO A MAXIMUM OF 65NM BY
TAU 36, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z, AND 181500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 171252
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1230 UTC 17 MAY 2021.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM TAUKTAE (PRONOUNCED AS TAUTE)
OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS
WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 08 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY CENTRED
AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 17 TH MAY, 2021 OVER EASTCENTRAL AND
ADJOINING NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 DEG N AND
LONGITUDE 71.4 DEG E, ABOUT 165 KM WESTNORTHWEST OF MUMBAI (43003),
165 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIU (42914), 180 KM SOUTHEAST OF VERAVAL
(42909) AND 380 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI (41780). IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND REACH GUJARAT COAST DURING
1200-1500 UTC OF 17TH AND CROSS GUJARAT COAST BETWEEN PORBANDAR
(42830) AND MAHUVA (BHAVNAGAR DISTRICT 42838) TO THE EAST OF DIU
DURING 1500- 1800 UTC OF 17TH MAY WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
OF 85-90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 100 KNOTS. (.)

THE ASSOCIATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KNOTS GUSTING TO
110 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950HPA. SEA CONDITION IS
PHENOMENAL (.)

PART-II (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1) N OF 3 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E: WIDEPSPREAD
RA/TS(.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1) N OF 3 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM(.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-5.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 55 DEG E: WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 55 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-5.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 65 DEG E TO N OF 15 DEG N: CYCLONIC
80/100 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 10/20 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 10/25 KTS TO THE E OF 60 DEG
E (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 13 DEG N TO THE E OF 67 DEG E : WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)
2)S OF 13 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 13 DEG N TO THE E OF 67 DEG E : 3-2 NM(.)
2)S OF 13 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM(.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 65 DEG E TO N OF 13 DEG N: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 68 DEG E TO N OF 16 DEG N: CYCLONIC
25/40 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 13 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E : WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)
2)N OF 13 TO 20 DEG N TO THE E OF 66 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1) )S OF 13 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E 3-2 NM(.)
2)N OF 13 TO 20 DEG N TO THE E OF 66 DEG E: 4-3 NM(.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 63 DEG E TO N OF 16 DEG N: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E ANDTHENCE
S-WARDS
TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 90 DEG E: S/ SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
4)REST AREA: SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO THE E OF 85 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE W OF 85 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO THE E OF 85 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE W OF 85 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-1.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N : WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N : 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-1.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 170900
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 17 MAY 2021.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM TAUKTAE (PRONOUNCED AS TAUTE)
OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED
OF ABOUT 15 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY CENTRED AT, 0300 UTC
OF TODAY, THE 17TH MAY, 2021 OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR
LATITUDE 18.8 DEGN AND LONGITUDE 71.5OE, ABOUT 150 KM WEST OF MUMBAI
(43003), 220 KM SOUTHSOUTHEAST OF DIU (42914), 260 KM S-SOUTHEAST OF
VERAVAL (42909) AND 490 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI (41780). IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND REACH GUJARAT COAST
DURING 1200-1500 UTC OF 17TH AND CROSS GUJARAT COAST BETWEEN PORBANDAR
(42830) AND MAHUVA (BHAVNAGAR DISTRICT 42838) AROUND 1500-1800 UTC OF
17TH MAY WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 155-165 KMPH GUSTING
TO 185 KMPH. (.)

PART-II (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1) N OF 3 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E: WIDEPSPREAD
RA/TS(.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1) N OF 3 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM(.)
2)W OF 60 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-5.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 55 DEG E: WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 55 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-5.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 65 DEG E TO N OF 15 DEG N: CYCLONIC
95/100 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 10/20 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 10/25 KTS TO THE E OF 60 DEG
E (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 13 DEG N TO THE E OF 67 DEG E : WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)
2)S OF 13 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 13 DEG N TO THE E OF 67 DEG E : 3-2 NM(.)
2)S OF 13 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM(.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 65 DEG E TO N OF 13 DEG N: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 68 DEG E TO N OF 16 DEG N: CYCLONIC
50/60 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 13 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E : WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)
2)N OF 13 TO 20 DEG N TO THE E OF 66 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1) )S OF 13 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E 3-2 NM(.)
2)N OF 13 TO 20 DEG N TO THE E OF 66 DEG E: 4-3 NM(.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 63 DEG E TO N OF 16 DEG N: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E ANDTHENCE
S-WARDS
TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 90 DEG E: S/ SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
4)REST AREA: SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO THE E OF 85 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE W OF 85 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO THE E OF 85 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)S OF 16 DEG N TO THE W OF 85 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-1.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N : WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N : 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-1.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 170900
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 210517072830
2021051706 01A TAUKTAE 013 01 330 09 SATL 010
T000 192N 0713E 115 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 145 SE QD 120 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 209N 0712E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 228N 0715E 060 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 244N 0724E 040
T048 261N 0738E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 19.2N 71.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 71.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.9N 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 22.8N 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 24.4N 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 26.1N 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 71.3E.
17MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
88 NM WEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//
0121051212 94N 672E 25
0121051218 94N 687E 20
0121051300 95N 700E 20
0121051306 97N 710E 25
0121051312 101N 714E 30
0121051318 105N 716E 30
0121051400 109N 718E 30
0121051406 114N 720E 40
0121051412 119N 722E 40
0121051418 123N 725E 45
0121051500 128N 730E 50
0121051500 128N 730E 50
0121051506 135N 733E 55
0121051506 135N 733E 55
0121051512 140N 733E 60
0121051512 140N 733E 60
0121051518 144N 731E 65
0121051518 144N 731E 65
0121051518 144N 731E 65
0121051600 150N 729E 75
0121051600 150N 729E 75
0121051600 150N 729E 75
0121051606 159N 728E 90
0121051606 159N 728E 90
0121051606 159N 728E 90
0121051612 168N 726E 100
0121051612 168N 726E 100
0121051612 168N 726E 100
0121051618 178N 720E 110
0121051618 178N 720E 110
0121051618 178N 720E 110
0121051700 184N 718E 120
0121051700 184N 718E 120
0121051700 184N 718E 120
0121051706 192N 713E 115
0121051706 192N 713E 115
0121051706 192N 713E 115
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 19.2N 71.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 71.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.9N 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 22.8N 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 24.4N 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 26.1N 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 71.3E.
17MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 88 NM
WEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH CONTINUAL AND
PERSISTENT LAND INTERACTION ALONG THE WESTERN INDIAN COAST. DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAVE BEEN WRAPPING
TIGHTER INTO THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION, AS EVIDENCED BY COLDER
OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS. THE 13-NM EYE REMAINS RAGGED BUT WELL-
DEFINED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE EYE, ADJUSTED FOR PARALLAX ERROR, THE BULLSEYE PASS FROM A
170516Z ASCAT METOP-B IMAGE, AND THE WEATHER RADAR LOOP FROM MUMBAI,
INDIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T6.0/115KTS, DEMS
T5.5/102KTS, THE SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON) ESTIMATE OF 120KTS,
AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) OF T6.3/122KTS. ANALYSIS
INDICATES FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH STRONG RADIAL
OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TC 01A WILL BEGIN TURNING TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR JAFARABAD, INDIA BY TAU 12. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT ENTERS AN AREA OF GREATER
VWS IN CONJUNCTION WITH TERRAIN INTERACTION AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SST
NEARSHORE AS IT TRACKS NORTH. AFTER LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL
RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXTREMELY
TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH AN EVEN AND VERY GRADUAL SPREAD TO A MAXIMUM OF
80NM BY TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z, AND 180900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 170622
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0000 UTC 17 MAY 2021.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM TAUKTAE (PRONOUNCED AS TAUTE) OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 20 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS, INTENSIFIED INTO AN EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AND AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY, THE 17 TH MAY, 2021 OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 71.5 DEG E, ABOUT 160 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI (43003), 350 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VERAVAL (42909), 310 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIU (42914) AND 840 KM SOUTHSOUTHEAST OF KARACHI (41780). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND REACH GUJARAT COAST DURING 1200-1500 UTC OF 17TH AND CROSS GUJARAT COAST BETWEEN PORBANDAR (42830) AND MAHUVA (BHAVNAGAR DISTRICT 42838) AROUND 1500-1800 UTC OF 17 TH MAY AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 155- 165 KMPH GUSTING TO 185 KMPH. (.)

PART-II (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1) E OF 60 DEG E: WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1) E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-5.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-5.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 65 DEG E TO N OF 15 DEG N: CYCLONIC 95/100 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 10/20 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 10/25 KTS TO THE E OF 60 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 65 DEG E TO N OF 13 DEG N: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 68 DEG E TO N OF 16 DEG N: CYCLONIC 45/55 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 67 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 67 DEG E : 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 63 DEG E TO N OF 16 DEG N: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E ANDTHENCE S-WARDS
TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 90 DEG E: S/SE-LY 05/15 KTS SW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE
N OF 5 DEG N (.)
4)REST AREA: SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 88 DEG E: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 05/10 KTS
TO THE N OF 5 DEG N(.)
2)REST AREA:S/SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 17 DEG N TO THE W OF 83 DEG E:S/SE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: ANTICYCLONIC 05/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 14 DEG N TO THE E OF 90 DEG E: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 14 DEG N TO THE E OF 90 DEG E: 8-6 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-1.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N : 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-1.0 MTR (.)
------
TOO:-17/1100
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 170300
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 210517012326
2021051700 01A TAUKTAE 012 01 320 09 SATL RADR SYNP 010
T000 185N 0715E 120 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 203N 0713E 100 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 220N 0713E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 237N 0719E 045 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 255N 0733E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 18.5N 71.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 71.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 20.3N 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.0N 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 23.7N 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 25.5N 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 71.5E.
17MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
78 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
//
0121051212 94N 672E 25
0121051218 94N 687E 20
0121051300 95N 700E 20
0121051306 97N 710E 25
0121051312 101N 714E 30
0121051318 105N 716E 30
0121051400 109N 718E 30
0121051406 114N 720E 40
0121051412 119N 722E 40
0121051418 123N 725E 45
0121051500 128N 730E 50
0121051500 128N 730E 50
0121051506 135N 733E 55
0121051506 135N 733E 55
0121051512 140N 733E 60
0121051512 140N 733E 60
0121051518 144N 731E 65
0121051518 144N 731E 65
0121051518 144N 731E 65
0121051600 150N 729E 75
0121051600 150N 729E 75
0121051600 150N 729E 75
0121051606 159N 728E 90
0121051606 159N 728E 90
0121051606 159N 728E 90
0121051612 168N 726E 100
0121051612 168N 726E 100
0121051612 168N 726E 100
0121051618 178N 721E 110
0121051618 178N 721E 110
0121051618 178N 721E 110
0121051700 185N 715E 120
0121051700 185N 715E 120
0121051700 185N 715E 120
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 18.5N 71.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 71.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 20.3N 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.0N 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 23.7N 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 25.5N 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 71.5E.
17MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
78 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO BE SYMMETRICAL AND
COMPACT DESPITE HOURS OF PERSISTENT LAND INTERACTION WITH THE
WESTERN INDIAN COAST. DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT
HAS DEEPENED FURTHER AS EVIDENCED BY COLDER OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS.
THE 12-NM EYE HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED BUT REMAINS WELL-DEFINED. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE,
ADJUSTED FOR PARALLAX ERROR AND LINED UP WITH A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 162110Z AMSR2 36GHZ PASS AND COMPOSITE
WEATHER RADAR LOOP FROM MUMBAI, INDIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120
KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE
OF T6.0/115KTS, SATCON ESTIMATE OF 123KTS, AND ADT OF T6.8/135KTS TO
REFLECT THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE CYCLONE. ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
(10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). TC 01A WILL CONTINUE ON ITS NORTHERLY CURRENT
TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR JAFARABAD, INDIA BY
TAU 18. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT ENTERS
AN AREA OF GREATER VWS IN CONJUNCTION WITH TERRAIN INTERACTION AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER SST NEARSHORE AS IT TRACKS NORTH. AFTER LANDFALL,
THE CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE RUGGED
TERRAIN, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH AN EVEN AND GRADUAL SPREAD TO 130NM
AT TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 162100
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 210516192916
2021051618 01A TAUKTAE 011 01 335 11 SATL RADR SYNP 010
T000 178N 0721E 110 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 075 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 197N 0715E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 212N 0713E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 228N 0717E 050 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 245N 0726E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 17.8N 72.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 72.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.7N 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 21.2N 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 22.8N 71.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 24.5N 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 72.0E.
16MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
82 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.
//
0121051212 94N 672E 25
0121051218 94N 687E 20
0121051300 95N 700E 20
0121051306 97N 710E 25
0121051312 101N 714E 30
0121051318 105N 716E 30
0121051400 109N 718E 30
0121051406 114N 720E 40
0121051412 119N 722E 40
0121051418 123N 725E 45
0121051500 128N 730E 50
0121051500 128N 730E 50
0121051506 135N 733E 55
0121051506 135N 733E 55
0121051512 140N 733E 60
0121051512 140N 733E 60
0121051518 144N 731E 65
0121051518 144N 731E 65
0121051518 144N 731E 65
0121051600 150N 729E 75
0121051600 150N 729E 75
0121051600 150N 729E 75
0121051606 159N 728E 90
0121051606 159N 728E 90
0121051606 159N 728E 90
0121051612 168N 726E 100
0121051612 168N 726E 100
0121051612 168N 726E 100
0121051618 178N 721E 110
0121051618 178N 721E 110
0121051618 178N 721E 110
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 17.8N 72.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 72.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.7N 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 21.2N 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 22.8N 71.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 24.5N 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 72.0E.
16MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
82 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SYSTEM THAT HAS BECOME MORE
SYMMETRICAL AND COMPACT AS CONVECTIVE BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
THAT HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEVELOPED, SHARPLY-OUTLINED 10NM EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE,
ADJUSTED FOR PARALLAX ERRO AND LINED UP WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
FEATURE IN THE 161646Z ASCAT-B DIRECT PASS AND COMPOSITE WEATHER
RADAR LOOP FROM MUMBAI, INDIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T5.5/102KTS, SATCON ESTIMATE OF 132KTS, AND ADT OF T6.8/135KTS TO
REFLECT THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE CYCLONE. ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS) ALOFT; AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). TC 01A WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK
THROUGH TAU 18 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TRACK MORE
NORTHWARD AND ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR
JAFARABAD, INDIA SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 24. PEAK INTENSITY OF 110KTS HAS
BEEN ACHIEVED AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN STRENGTH AS
IT TRACKS NORTH DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SST
NEARSHORE. AFTER LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH AN EVEN AND
GRADUAL SPREAD TO 115NM AT TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS
40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 161800
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 16 MAY 2021.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM TAUKTAE (PRONOUNCED AS TAUTE) OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT
10 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 HOURS UTC OF TODAY,
THE 16 TH MAY, 2021 OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 DEG N
AND LONGITUDE 72.5 DEG E, ABOUT 190 KM NORTHWEST OF PANJIM-GOA, 270 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, 510 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VERAVAL (GUJARAT),
470 KM SOUTHSOUTHEAST OF DIU AND 700 KM SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI (PAKISTAN).
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHNORTHWESTWARDS AND REACH GUJARAT COAST IN THE EVENING
HOURS OF 17TH AND CROSS GUJARAT COAST BETWEEN PORBANDAR AND MAHUVA
(BHAVNAGAR DISTRICT) AROUND 18 TH MAY EARLY MORNING (.)

PART-II (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1) E OF 60 DEG E: WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1) E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-5.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-5.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 65 DEG E TO N OF 13 DEG N: CYCLONIC 75/90 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 10/20 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 10/25 KTS TO THE E OF 60 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 65 DEG E TO N OF 13 DEG N: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 63 DEG E TO N OF 16 DEG N: CYCLONIC 70/90 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 67 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 67 DEG E : 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 63 DEG E TO N OF 16 DEG N: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.0 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E ANDTHENCE S-WARDS
TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 90 DEG E: S/SE-LY 05/15 KTS SW-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE
N OF 5 DEG N (.)
4)REST AREA: SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 88 DEG E: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 05/10 KTS
TO THE N OF 5 DEG N(.)
2)REST AREA:S/SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 17 DEG N TO THE W OF 83 DEG E:S/SE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: ANTICYCLONIC 05/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 14 DEG N TO THE E OF 90 DEG E: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 14 DEG N TO THE E OF 90 DEG E: 8-6 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-1.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N : 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-1.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 16.8N 72.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 72.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.6N 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 20.2N 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 21.6N 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 23.1N 71.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 26.4N 74.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 72.4E.
16MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 573
NM SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) ALONG WITH ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A
DEEP COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A RAGGED 17NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, BASED ON A 161141Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE,
WHICH SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED EYE FROM MSI. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND
PLACED BETWEEN THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.0/90KTS, THE ADVANCED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) OF T5.9/112KTS, AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS
(SATCON) ESTIMATE OF 108KTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), AND WARM (30-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 01A WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK
THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING
RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI), FUELED BY A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
LASTING THROUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS AND WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
105 KNOTS. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AS IT
ENTERS A REGION OF HIGHER SHEAR, ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS, AND THEN
MAKES LANDFALL BETWEEN VERAVAL AND MAHUVA, INDIA, BETWEEN TAU 24 AND
36. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY
OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN BEFORE COMPLETING DISSIPATION BY TAU 72,
POSSIBLY SOONER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD, NOW ONLY 55NM AT TAU 24, ONLY
INCREASING THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD TO A MERE 149NM BY TAU 72. TRACK
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH UP TO TAU 48 AND WANES SLIGHTLY AFTER MOVING
OVER LAND AS THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, CLOSER TO
ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z
IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z, AND 171500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 161500
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 210516132051
2021051612 01A TAUKTAE 010 01 350 09 SATL 060
T000 168N 0726E 100 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 125 SE QD 125 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 186N 0718E 105 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 202N 0713E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 216N 0713E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 231N 0717E 050 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 264N 0746E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 16.8N 72.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 72.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.6N 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 20.2N 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 21.6N 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 23.1N 71.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 26.4N 74.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 72.4E.
16MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
573 NM SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z,
170900Z AND 171500Z.//
0121051212 94N 672E 25
0121051218 94N 687E 20
0121051300 95N 700E 20
0121051306 97N 710E 25
0121051312 101N 714E 30
0121051318 105N 716E 30
0121051400 109N 718E 30
0121051406 114N 720E 40
0121051412 119N 722E 40
0121051418 123N 725E 45
0121051500 128N 730E 50
0121051500 128N 730E 50
0121051506 135N 733E 55
0121051506 135N 733E 55
0121051512 140N 733E 60
0121051512 140N 733E 60
0121051518 144N 731E 65
0121051518 144N 731E 65
0121051518 144N 731E 65
0121051600 150N 729E 75
0121051600 150N 729E 75
0121051600 150N 729E 75
0121051606 159N 728E 90
0121051606 159N 728E 90
0121051606 159N 728E 90
0121051612 168N 726E 100
0121051612 168N 726E 100
0121051612 168N 726E 100
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 160900 COR
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 16 MAY 2021.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM TAUKTAE (PRONOUNCED AS TAUTE) OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NEARLY NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT
11 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF 16 TH
MAY, 2021 OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 DEG AND
LONGITUDE 72.7 DEG E, ABOUT 120 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
PANJIM-GOA(43192), 420 KM SOUTH OF MUMBAI(43003),, 660 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VERAVAL (42909) AND 810 KM SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI
(41780). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND REACH GUJARAT
COAST DURING 1200-1500 UTC OF 17TH AND CROSS GUJARAT COAST BETWEEN
PORBANDAR (42830) AND MAHUVA (BHAVNAGAR DISTRICT; 42838) AROUND 0000
UTC OF 18TH MAY.. (.)

PART-II (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1) E OF 52 DEG E: WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1) E OF 52 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-5.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-5.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW-LY 15/25 KTS BEC CYCLONIC KTS TO THE OF 65 DEG E:
55-65 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E : WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)
2)N OF 15 TO 22 DEG N TO THE E OF 67 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR(.
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E : 3-2 NM(.)
2)N OF 15 TO 22 DEG N TO THE E OF 67 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO THE E OF 65 DEG E: 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.0

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: SW-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
2) N OF 17 DEG N: NW/W-LY 15/25 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 70/80 KTS TO THE N
OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 66 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 13 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E : WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)
2)N OF 13 TO 23 DEG N TO THE E OF 67 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 13 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E : 3-2 NM(.)
2)N OF 13 TO 23 DEG N TO THE E OF 67 DEG E: 3-2 NM(.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO THE E OF 65 DEG E: OVER 14.0 MTR
(.)
2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.0 MTR(.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E ANDTHENCE
S-WARDS
TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 90 DEG E: S/SE-LY 05/15 KTS(.)
4)REST AREA: SW-LY 05/10 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 88 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 88 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 88 DEG E: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
SW-LY 05/10 KTS
TO THE N OF 5 DEG N(.)
2)REST AREA:S/SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 17 DEG N TO THE W OF 83 DEG
E:S/SE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: ANTICYCLONIC 05/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 14 DEG N TO THE E OF 90 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 14 DEG N TO THE E OF 90 DEG E: 4-3 NM(.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-1.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 14 DEG N : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)N OF 14 TO 20 DEG N: SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 14 DEG N : 4-3 NM (.)
2)N OF 14 TO 20 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-1.0 MTR (.)
----------
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 160300
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 16 MAY 2021.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM TAUKTAE (PRONOUNCED AS TAUTE) OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NEARLY NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT
11 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF 16 TH
MAY, 2021 OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 DEG AND
LONGITUDE 72.7 DEG E, ABOUT 120 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
PANJIM-GOA(43192), 420 KM SOUTH OF MUMBAI(43003),, 660 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VERAVAL (42909) AND 810 KM SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI
(41780). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND REACH GUJARAT
COAST DURING 1200-1500 UTC OF 17TH AND CROSS GUJARAT COAST BETWEEN
PORBANDAR (42830) AND MAHUVA (BHAVNAGAR DISTRICT; 42838) AROUND 0000
UTC OF 18TH MAY.. (.)

PART-II (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1) E OF 52 DEG E: WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1) E OF 52 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-5.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-5.0 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW-LY 15/25 KTS BEC CYCLONIC KTS TO THE OF 65 DEG E:
55-65 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E : WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)
2)N OF 15 TO 22 DEG N TO THE E OF 67 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR(.
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E : 3-2 NM(.)
2)N OF 15 TO 22 DEG N TO THE E OF 67 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO THE E OF 65 DEG E: 14.0 MTR (.)
2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.0

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 17 DEG N: SW-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
2) N OF 17 DEG N: NW/W-LY 15/25 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 70/80 KTS TO THE N
OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 66 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 13 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E : WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)
2)N OF 13 TO 23 DEG N TO THE E OF 67 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 13 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E : 3-2 NM(.)
2)N OF 13 TO 23 DEG N TO THE E OF 67 DEG E: 3-2 NM(.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO THE E OF 65 DEG E: OVER 14.0 MTR
(.)
2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.0 MTR(.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E
AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E ANDTHENCE
S-WARDS
TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 90 DEG E: S/SE-LY 05/15 KTS(.)
4)REST AREA: SW-LY 05/10 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 88 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 88 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 88 DEG E: S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
SW-LY 05/10 KTS
TO THE N OF 5 DEG N(.)
2)REST AREA:S/SW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM(.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 17 DEG N TO THE W OF 83 DEG
E:S/SE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: ANTICYCLONIC 05/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 14 DEG N TO THE E OF 90 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 14 DEG N TO THE E OF 90 DEG E: 4-3 NM(.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-1.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 14 DEG N : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)N OF 14 TO 20 DEG N: SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 14 DEG N : 4-3 NM (.)
2)N OF 14 TO 20 DEG N: 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-1.0 MTR (.)
----------
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 160900
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 210516072810
2021051606 01A TAUKTAE 009 01 355 09 SATL RADR 010
T000 159N 0728E 090 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 045 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 115 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 174N 0721E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 190N 0714E 105 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 205N 0709E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 218N 0712E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 250N 0731E 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 15.9N 72.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 72.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.4N 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.0N 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.5N 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 21.8N 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 25.0N 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 72.6E.
16MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
626 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.//
0121051212 94N 672E 25
0121051218 94N 687E 20
0121051300 95N 700E 20
0121051306 97N 710E 25
0121051312 101N 714E 30
0121051318 105N 716E 30
0121051400 109N 718E 30
0121051406 114N 720E 40
0121051412 119N 722E 40
0121051418 123N 725E 45
0121051500 128N 730E 50
0121051500 128N 730E 50
0121051506 135N 733E 55
0121051506 135N 733E 55
0121051512 140N 733E 60
0121051512 140N 733E 60
0121051518 144N 731E 65
0121051518 144N 731E 65
0121051518 144N 731E 65
0121051600 150N 729E 75
0121051600 150N 729E 75
0121051600 150N 729E 75
0121051606 159N 728E 90
0121051606 159N 728E 90
0121051606 159N 728E 90
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 15.9N 72.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 72.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.4N 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.0N 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.5N 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 21.8N 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 25.0N 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 72.6E.
16MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 626
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A 14NM EYE NOW FORMING AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
BECOMES MORE COMPACT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED EYE FEATURE AND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IN THE COMPOSITE WEATHER RADAR LOOP FROM GOA, INDIA. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND PLACED
IN LINE WITH THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.0/90KTS AND HEDGED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DEMS T4.5/77KTS, THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
(ADT) OF T4.7/82KTS AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON) ESTIMATE OF
78KTS. THIS INCREASE IN INTENSITY REFLECTS THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT IS
BEGINNING TO OCCUR DUE TO A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ANALYSIS
INDICATES ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS), AND WARM (31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE. TC 01A WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH TAU
36 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE EAST. THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, FUELED BY THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 24.
AFTERWARD, IT WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWARD AND ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN VERAVAL AND MAHUVA, INDIA, SHORTLY
AFTER TAUS 36. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION. AFTER LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS
IT TRACKS ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU
72, POSSIBLY SOONER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TIGHTENED IN
AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD, NOW ONLY 68NM AT TAU 36
AND INCREASES TO A MERE MAXIMUM OF 193NM THROUGH TAU 72. TRACK
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH UP TO TAU 48, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD
AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE OVERLAND. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND A BIT FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AFTER TAU 36 IN ANTICIPATION OF A MORE INTENSE CYCLONE THAN WHAT
CONW SUGGESTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 31
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z, AND 170900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 160300
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 210516012126
2021051600 01A TAUKTAE 008 01 340 06 SATL RADR SYNP 010
T000 150N 0729E 075 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 115 SE QD 150 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 164N 0722E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 179N 0714E 105 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 195N 0709E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 209N 0709E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 240N 0722E 040 R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 274N 0759E 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 15.0N 72.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 72.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.4N 72.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.9N 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.5N 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.9N 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 24.0N 72.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 27.4N 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 72.7E.
16MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
237 NM SOUTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.
//
0121051212 94N 672E 25
0121051218 94N 687E 20
0121051300 95N 700E 20
0121051306 97N 710E 25
0121051312 101N 714E 30
0121051318 105N 716E 30
0121051400 109N 718E 30
0121051406 114N 720E 40
0121051412 119N 722E 40
0121051418 123N 725E 45
0121051500 128N 730E 50
0121051500 128N 730E 50
0121051506 135N 733E 55
0121051506 135N 733E 55
0121051512 140N 733E 60
0121051512 140N 733E 60
0121051518 144N 731E 65
0121051518 144N 731E 65
0121051518 144N 731E 65
0121051600 150N 729E 75
0121051600 150N 729E 75
0121051600 150N 729E 75
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 15.0N 72.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 72.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.4N 72.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.9N 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.5N 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.9N 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 24.0N 72.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 27.4N 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 72.7E.
16MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
237 NM SOUTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING SYSTEM THAT HAS
BECOME MORE COMPACT. ALSO, FEEDER BANDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
THAT HAS BECOME MORE DENSE AND CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN AN EVOLVING,
PINHOLE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 152145Z GMI 37GHZ
PASS AND COMPOSITE WEATHER RADAR LOOP FROM GOA, INDIA. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE
OF T4.0/65KTS AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE SATCON ESTIMATE OF 77KTS AND
ADT OF T4.4/75KTS AND REFLECTS THE SIGNIFICANT SIX-HOUR
INTENSIFICATION. ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-
10KTS) ALOFT; AND WARM (31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. TC 01A WILL
CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
AFTERWARD, IT WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWARD AND ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR VANAKBARA, INDIA SHORTLY AROUND TAU 48.
THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION REMAINS DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS, FUELED BY THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, REACHING A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. AFTER LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE
WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN, LEADING
TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96, POSSIBLY SOONER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 140NM
AT TAU 48 AND INCREASING TO A MAXIMUM OF 255NM THROUGH TAU 96. IN
VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE UP TO TAU 48, THEN LOW
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER LAND. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS LAID SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND A BIT FASTER THAN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 36 IN ANTICIPATION OF A MORE INTENSE
CYCLONE THAN WHAT CONW SUGGESTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND
170300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 14.6N 72.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 72.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.9N 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.3N 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.7N 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.3N 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 23.3N 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 26.6N 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 28.8N 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 72.8E.
15MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
263 NM SOUTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AND HAS BECOME
MORE SYMMETRICAL WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND AN
EVOLVING EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 151703Z
AMSU-B 89GHZ PASS AND COMPOSITE WEATHER RADAR LOOP FROM GOA, INDIA.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE
OF T4.0/65KTS AND ADT OF T3.9/63KTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), AND WARM (31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE. TC 01A IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND
WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH TAU 36. AFTERWARD, IT
WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWARD AND ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL NEAR VERAVAL, INDIA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48. THE POSSIBILITY
OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) REMAINS HIGH DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE, REACHING A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH LAND INTERACTION. AFTER LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE
WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN, LEADING
TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120, POSSIBLY SOONER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 90NM
AT TAU 48 AND INCREASING TO A MAXIMUM OF 200NM THROUGH TAU 120. IN
VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE UP TO TAU 48, THEN MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD, IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND A BIT FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AFTER TAU 36 IN ANTICIPATION OF A MORE INTENSE CYCLONE THAN WHAT
CONW SUGGESTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 152100
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 210515195001
2021051518 01A TAUKTAE 007 01 325 07 SATL RADR SYNP 015
T000 146N 0729E 065 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 115 SE QD 140 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 159N 0723E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 173N 0715E 095 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 187N 0707E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 203N 0705E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 233N 0712E 060 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 266N 0744E 035 R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 288N 0777E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 14.6N 72.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 72.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.9N 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.3N 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.7N 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.3N 70.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 23.3N 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 26.6N 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 28.8N 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 72.8E.
15MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
263 NM SOUTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.
//
0121051212 94N 672E 25
0121051218 94N 687E 20
0121051300 95N 700E 20
0121051306 97N 710E 25
0121051312 101N 714E 30
0121051318 105N 716E 30
0121051400 109N 718E 30
0121051406 114N 720E 40
0121051412 119N 722E 40
0121051418 123N 725E 45
0121051500 128N 730E 50
0121051500 128N 730E 50
0121051506 135N 733E 55
0121051506 135N 733E 55
0121051512 140N 733E 60
0121051512 140N 733E 60
0121051518 146N 729E 65
0121051518 146N 729E 65
0121051518 146N 729E 65
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 151800
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR

VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 15 MAY 2021.



PART-I STORM WARNING



THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM TAUKTAE (PRONOUNCED AS TAUTE) OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NEARLY NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF
ABOUT 13 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1500 UTC
OF TODAY, THE 15 TH MAY, 2021 OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR
LATITUDE 14.2 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 72.7 DEG E, ABOUT 190 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PANJIM-GOA, 550 KM SOUTHSOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI,
780 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VERAVAL (42909) AND 910 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF KARACHI (41780). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS AND INTENSIFY
FURTHER. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND REACH
GUJARAT COAST DURING 0000-0400UTC OF 18TH AND CROSS GUJARAT COAST
BETWEEN PORBANDAR AND NALIYA AROUND 0900-1200UTC OF 18TH MAY, 2021
(.)
THE ASSOCIATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO
70 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 HPA. SEA CONDITION
IS VERY HIGH (.)



PART-II (.)



A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER: 1) E OF 60 DEG E: WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS(.)

2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1) E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM(.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-5.0 MTR (.)



A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 57 DEG E: WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS(.)

2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 57 DEG E: 3-2 NM(.)

2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-5.0 MTR (.)



ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E

TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 61 DEG E: CYCLONIC 70/80 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1) E OF 68 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

2)S OF 15 DEG N TO W OF 68 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 11) E OF 68 DEG E : 3-2 NM (.)

2)S OF 15 DEG N TO W OF 68 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)

3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1) E OF 61 DEG E: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)

2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.0 MTR (.)



A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS

1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 63 DEG E TO N OF 14 DEG N: CYCLONIC
75/85 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1) S OF 14 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E : WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)

2)N OF 14 TO 22 DEG N TO THE E OF 68 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1) S OF 14 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E : 3-2 NM(.)

2)N OF 14 TO 22 DEG N TO THE E OF 68 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 11)E OF 63 DEG E TO N OF 14 DEG N: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)

2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.0 MTR (.)



BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E

AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E ANDTHENCE
S-WARDS

TO EQUATOR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 90 DEG E: SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)

2)W OF 90 DEG E: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 90 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 90 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)



A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 92 DEG E: SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)

2)W OF 90 DEG E: SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE N OF 5
DEG N (.)

II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM(.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)



BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 10/15 KTS BEC NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE
E OF 90 DEG E (.)

II)WEATHER: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 8-6 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-1.0 MTR (.)



A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: S/SW-LY 10/20 KTS BEC NW-LY 05/10 KTS TO
THE E OF 90 DEG E (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG N : SCATTERED RA/TS(.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG N : 6-4 NM(.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-1.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 151613
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR

VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1600 UTC 15 MAY 2021.



PART-I STORM WARNING



THE CYCLONIC STORM TAUKTAE (PRONOUNCED AS TAUTE) OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED NEARLY NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF
ABOUT 07 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS LAY CENTRED AT 0900 HOURS UTC
OF 15TH MAY, 2021 OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 13.5
DEG N AND LONGITUDE 72.7 DEG E, 250 KM SOUTHWEST OF PANJIM-GOA
(43192), 620 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI(43003), 850 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VERAVAL (42909) AND 960 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF KARACHI (41780). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO
A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 03 HOURS AND INTO A VERY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM DURING THE SUBSEQUENT 12 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY
TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND REACH GUJARAT COAST DURING
0000-0400UTC OF 18TH AND CROSS GUJARAT COAST BETWEEN PORBANDAR

AND NALIYA AROUND 0900-1200UTC OF 18TH MAY, 2021. (.)



PART-II (.)



A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER: 1) N OF 6 DEG N TO THE E OF 56 DEG E: WIDEPSPREAD
RA/TS(.)

2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1) N OF 6 DEG N TO THE E OF 56 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM(.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-5.0 MTR (.)



A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 25/35 KTS
TO THE E OF 70 DEG E (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 57 DEG E: WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS(.)

2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 57 DEG E: 3-2 NM(.)

2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-5.0 MTR (.)



ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E

TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 20 DEG N: NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)

2)S OF 20 DEG N TO THE W OF 65 DEG E: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)

3)REST AREA: NW-LY 10/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 60/75 KTS TO THE S OF 17
THE
E OF 65 DEG E(.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 14 DEG N TO THE E OF 56 DEG E : WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)

2)N OF 14 TO 20 DEG N TO THE E OF 69 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

3)REST AREA: FAIR(.

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 14 DEG N TO THE E OF 56 DEG E : 3-2 NM(.)

2)N OF 14 TO 20 DEG N TO THE E OF 69 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO THE E OF 65 DEG E: OVER 14.0 MTR
(.)

2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.0



A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS

1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 62 DEG E: SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)

2) E OF 63 DEG E: NW-LY 10/20 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 70/85 KTS TO THE N OF
16 DEG N TO E OF 68

DEG E (.)

II)WEATHER: 1) S OF 14 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E : WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)

2)N OF 14 TO 22 DEG N TO THE E OF 68 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1) S OF 14 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E : 3-2 NM(.)

2)N OF 14 TO 22 DEG N TO THE E OF 68 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1) E OF 65 DEG E: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)

2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.0 MTR (.)



BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E

AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E ANDTHENCE
S-WARDS

TO EQUATOR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 5 DEG N TO THE W OF 90 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS(.)

2)N OF 5 DEG N TO THE W OF 85 DEG E: S/SW-LY 05/15 KTS(.)

3)N OF 5 DEG N TO THE E OF 85 DEG E: SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NW-LY
05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 93 DEG E(.)

4)REST AREA: SW-LY 05/10 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 87 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 87 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)



A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 88 DEG E: S/SWE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
S/SE-LY
05/10 KTS TO THE N OF 5 DEG N(.)

2)REST AREA:SW-LY 05/15 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM(.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)



BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 83 DEG E: S/SW-LY 10/20 KTS BEC
SE-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE

N OF 14 DEG N(.)

2)REST AREA: ANTICYCLONIC 05/10 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 8-6 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-1.0 MTR (.)



A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 83 DEG E: SE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: ANTICYCLONIC 05/15 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 16 DEG N : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N : 4-3 NM(.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-1.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 151500
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 210515132247
2021051512 01A TAUKTAE 006 01 335 10 SATL 035
T000 144N 0729E 060 R050 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 095 SE QD 135 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 156N 0723E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 168N 0716E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 185N 0706E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 197N 0701E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 226N 0700E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 257N 0721E 055
T120 278N 0743E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 14.4N 72.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 72.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.6N 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.8N 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.5N 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.7N 70.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 22.6N 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 25.7N 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 27.8N 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 72.8E.
15MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
707 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.//
0121051212 94N 672E 25
0121051218 94N 687E 20
0121051300 95N 700E 20
0121051306 97N 710E 25
0121051312 101N 714E 30
0121051318 105N 716E 30
0121051400 109N 718E 30
0121051406 114N 720E 40
0121051412 119N 722E 40
0121051418 123N 725E 45
0121051500 128N 730E 50
0121051500 128N 730E 50
0121051506 135N 733E 55
0121051506 135N 733E 55
0121051512 144N 729E 60
0121051512 144N 729E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 14.4N 72.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 72.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.6N 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.8N 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.5N 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.7N 70.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 22.6N 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 25.7N 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 27.8N 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 72.8E.
15MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
707 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE
01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 766 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF A 151058Z SSMIS 37GHZ PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS IN LINE WITH THE ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE (ADT) AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON) ESTIMATES OF 61
KNOTS AND HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PGTW AND DEMS DVORAK ESTIMATE
OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS). THE UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (15-20KTS), AND WARM (31C) SST VALUES. TC 01A IS TRACKING
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TC 01A WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 60 JUST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
NEAR PORBANDAR, INDIA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
OUT TO TAU 48, WITH THE SPREAD INCREASING FROM 155NM AT TAU 48,
INCREASING TO A MAXIMUM OF 325NM THROUGH TAU 120. THE POSSIBILITY OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) REMAINS HIGH DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUALLY IMPROVE AS TC 01A
MOVES NORTH, SHEAR WEAKENS, AND OUTFLOW INCREASES, REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND MAKE INITIAL LANDFALL NEAR
PORBANDAR, INDIA. THE SYSTEM WILL LOSE SOME INTENSITY AS IT RECURVES
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND REEMERGES OVER THE GULF OF KUTCH, MAKING
LANDFALL ONCE AGAIN, THIS TIME NEAR GANDHIDHAM, INDIA, AND BEGIN
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PAKISTAN/INDIA BORDER, FULLY
DISSIPATING OVER THE THAR DESERT NEAR TAU 120. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS MODERATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 151200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z
AND 161500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 151250

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR

VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1230 UTC 15 MAY 2021.



PART-I STORM WARNING



THE CYCLONIC STORM TAUKTAE (PRONOUNCED AS TAUTE) OVER EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA MOVED NEARLY NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 07 KNOTS
DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0900 HOURS UTC OF TODAY, THE
15 TH MAY, 2021 OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 DEG N
AND LONGITUDE 72.7 DEG E, ABOUT 250 KM SOUTHWEST OF PANJIM-GOA, 620
KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, 850 KM SOUTHSOUTHEAST OF VERAVAL
(GUJARAT) AND 960 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI (PAKISTAN). IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING
NEXT 3 HOURS AND INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING THE
SUBSEQUENT 12 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHNORTHWESTWARDS
AND REACH GUJARAT COAST IN THE MORNING OF 18TH AND CROSS GUJARAT
COAST BETWEEN PORBANDAR AND NALIYA AROUND 18TH MAY AFTERNOON / EVENING
(.)



PART-II (.)



A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER: 1) N OF 6 DEG N TO THE E OF 56 DEG E: WIDEPSPREAD
RA/TS(.)

2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1) N OF 6 DEG N TO THE E OF 56 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM(.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-5.0 MTR (.)



A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 25/35 KTS
TO THE E OF 70 DEG E (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 57 DEG E: WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS(.)

2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 57 DEG E: 3-2 NM(.)

2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-5.0 MTR (.)



ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E

TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 20 DEG N: NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)

2)S OF 20 DEG N TO THE W OF 65 DEG E: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)

3)REST AREA: NW-LY 10/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 60/75 KTS TO THE S OF 17
THE E OF 65 DEG E(.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 14 DEG N TO THE E OF 56 DEG E : WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)

2)N OF 14 TO 20 DEG N TO THE E OF 69 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

3)REST AREA: FAIR(.

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 14 DEG N TO THE E OF 56 DEG E : 3-2 NM(.)

2)N OF 14 TO 20 DEG N TO THE E OF 69 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO THE E OF 65 DEG E: OVER 14.0 MTR
(.)

2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.0



A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS

1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 62 DEG E: SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)

2) E OF 62 DEG E: NW-LY 10/20 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 70/85 KTS TO THE N OF
16 DEG N TO E OF 68

DEG E (.)

II)WEATHER: 1) S OF 14 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E : WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)

2)N OF 14 TO 22 DEG N TO THE E OF 68 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1) S OF 14 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E : 3-2 NM(.)

2)N OF 14 TO 22 DEG N TO THE E OF 68 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1) E OF 65 DEG E: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)

2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.0 MTR (.)



BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E

AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E ANDTHENCE
S-WARDS

TO EQUATOR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 5 DEG N TO THE W OF 90 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS(.)

2)N OF 5 DEG N TO THE W OF 85 DEG E: S/SW-LY 05/15 KTS(.)

3)N OF 5 DEG N TO THE E OF 85 DEG E: SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NW-LY
05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 93 DEG E(.)

4)REST AREA: SW-LY 05/10 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 87 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 87 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)



A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 88 DEG E: S/SWE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE N OF 5 DEG N(.)

2)REST AREA:SW-LY 05/15 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM(.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)



BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 83 DEG E: S/SW-LY 10/20 KTS BEC
SE-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE

N OF 14 DEG N(.)

2)REST AREA: ANTICYCLONIC 05/10 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 8-6 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-1.0 MTR (.)



A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 83 DEG E: SE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: ANTICYCLONIC 05/15 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 16 DEG N : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N : 4-3 NM(.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-1.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 150900

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR

VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 15 MAY 2021.



PART-I STORM WARNING



THE CYCLONIC STORM TAUKTAE (PRONOUNCED AS TAUTE) OVER EASTCENTRAL AND
ADJOINING SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A
SPEED OF ABOUT 11 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300
HOURS UTC OF 15 TH MAY, 2021 OVER EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST
ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 72.5 DEG E, ABOUT
190 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF AMINI DIVI (43311), 330 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF PANJIM-GOA (43192), 930 KM SOUTHSOUTHEAST OF VERAVAL (42909) AND
1020 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI (41780). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO
INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 06 HOURS
AND INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING THE SUBSEQUENT 12 HOURS.
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS GUJARAT
COAST BETWEEN PORBANDER (42830) AND NALIYA (42631) DURING 0900-1200
UTC OF 18TH MAY. (.)



PART-II (.)



A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 20/25 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER: 1) N OF 6 DEG N TO THE E OF 56 DEG E: WIDEPSPREAD
RA/TS(.)

2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1) N OF 6 DEG N TO THE E OF 56 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM(.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-5.0 MTR (.)



A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS BEC W/NW-LY 25/35 KTS
TO THE E OF 70 DEG E (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 57 DEG E: WIDEPSPREAD RA/TS(.)

2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 57 DEG E: 3-2 NM(.)

2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-5.0 MTR (.)



ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E

TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 20 DEG N: NW-LY 10/15 KTS (.)

2)S OF 20 DEG N TO THE W OF 65 DEG E: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)

3)REST AREA: NW-LY 10/15 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 30/40 KTS TO THE S OF 17
THE E OF 65 DEG E(.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 14 DEG N TO THE E OF 56 DEG E : WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)

2)N OF 14 TO 20 DEG N TO THE E OF 69 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

3)REST AREA: FAIR(.

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 14 DEG N TO THE E OF 56 DEG E : 3-2 NM(.)

2)N OF 14 TO 20 DEG N TO THE E OF 69 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO THE E OF 65 DEG E: 9.0-14.0 MTR
(.)

2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.0



A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS

1)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 62 DEG E: SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)

2) E OF 62 DEG E: NW-LY 10/20 KTS BEC CYCLONIC 70/80 KTS TO THE N OF
14 DEG N TO E OF 68 DEG E(.)

II)WEATHER: 1) S OF 14 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E : WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)

2)N OF 14 TO 22 DEG N TO THE E OF 68 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1) S OF 14 DEG N TO THE E OF 60 DEG E : 3-2 NM(.)

2)N OF 14 TO 22 DEG N TO THE E OF 68 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO THE E OF 65 DEG E: OVER 14.0 MTR
(.)

2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.0 MTR(.)



BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80 DEG E

AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG E ANDTHENCE
S-WARDS

TO EQUATOR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 5 DEG N TO THE W OF 90 DEG E:
CYCLONIC 05/10 KTS(.)

2)N OF 5 DEG N TO THE W OF 85 DEG E: S/SW-LY 05/15 KTS(.)

3)N OF 5 DEG N TO THE E OF 85 DEG E: SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS BEC NW-LY
05/10 KTS TO THE E OF 93 DEG E(.)

4)REST AREA: SW-LY 05/10 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 87 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 87 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)



A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 88 DEG E: S/SWE-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
S/SE-LY 05/10 KTS TO THE N OF 5 DEG N(.)

2)REST AREA:SW-LY 05/15 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM(.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-1.5 MTR (.)



BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 83 DEG E: S/SW-LY 10/20 KTS BEC
SE-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE

N OF 14 DEG N(.)

2)REST AREA: ANTICYCLONIC 05/10 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 8-6 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-1.0 MTR (.)



A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 83 DEG E: SE-LY 10/15 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: ANTICYCLONIC 05/15 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 16 DEG N : FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N : 4-3 NM(.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 0.5-1.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (.)=

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 150900
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 210515075620
2021051506 01A TAUKTAE 005 01 025 08 SATL 020
T000 135N 0733E 055 R050 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 110 SE QD 115 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 148N 0729E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 159N 0723E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 172N 0711E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 185N 0703E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 214N 0695E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 236N 0701E 085 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 258N 0720E 055 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 13.5N 73.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 73.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.8N 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.9N 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.2N 71.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.5N 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 21.4N 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.6N 70.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 25.8N 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 73.2E.
15MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
766 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.//
0121051212 94N 672E 25
0121051218 94N 687E 20
0121051300 95N 700E 20
0121051306 97N 710E 25
0121051312 101N 714E 30
0121051318 105N 716E 30
0121051400 109N 718E 30
0121051406 114N 720E 40
0121051412 119N 722E 40
0121051418 123N 725E 45
0121051500 128N 730E 50
0121051500 128N 730E 50
0121051506 135N 733E 55
0121051506 135N 733E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 13.5N 73.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 73.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.8N 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.9N 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.2N 71.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 18.5N 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 21.4N 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.6N 70.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 25.8N 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 72.3E.
15MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
766 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BULLSEYE PASS
FROM A 150419Z ASCAT METOP-B IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS, USING THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGE AND THE
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF 57 KNOTS AND SATELLITE
CONSENSUS OF 55KTS; AND HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PGTW DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-
20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (31C) SST VALUES. TC 01A IS
TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TC 01A IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE
RECURVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN POOR AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 48, WITH INCREASING SPREAD FROM 170NM
AT TAU 48, INCREASING TO WELL OVER 600NM BY TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96,
THE MODELS FURTHER DIVERGE WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE
TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE AROUND THE STR. DUE TO THE EXCELLENT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY
AFTER TAU 24 WITH A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72 JUST BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL NEAR PORBANDAR, INDIA. STEADY WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PAKISTAN/INDIA BORDER WITH RAPID WEAKENING
AFTER THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST IS MODERATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS
21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 150300
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 210515013017
2021051500 01A TAUKTAE 004 01 010 05 SATL 050
T000 126N 0724E 050 R050 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 095 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 141N 0722E 065 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 152N 0716E 075 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 165N 0707E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 178N 0695E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 202N 0679E 110 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 226N 0675E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 249N 0685E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 12.6N 72.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 72.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.1N 72.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.2N 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.5N 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.8N 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.2N 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 22.6N 67.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 24.9N 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 72.3E.
15MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
793 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.
//
0121051212 94N 672E 25
0121051218 94N 687E 20
0121051300 95N 700E 20
0121051306 97N 710E 25
0121051312 101N 714E 30
0121051318 105N 716E 30
0121051400 109N 718E 30
0121051406 114N 720E 40
0121051412 119N 722E 40
0121051418 121N 723E 45
0121051500 126N 724E 50
0121051500 126N 724E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 12.1N 72.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 72.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.4N 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.7N 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.9N 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.3N 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.1N 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 23.2N 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.9N 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 72.3E.
14MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 819
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141338Z SSMIS 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATE
A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS, WHICH IS
IN LINE WITH A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF 43 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH
NEARLY RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (31C) SST
VALUES. TC 01A IS TRACKING SLOWLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO
THE EAST. TC 01A IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE RECURVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 96.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 48,
INCREASING TO OVER 450NM BY TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, THE MODELS FURTHER
DIVERGE WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE.
DUE TO THE EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 WITH A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
STEADY WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
PAKISTAN/INDIA BORDER WITH RAPID WEAKENING AFTER THE SYSTEM MAKES
LANDFALL. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST IS MODERATE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 142100
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 210514194003
2021051418 01A ONE 003 01 025 02 SATL 045
T000 121N 0723E 045 R034 060 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 134N 0724E 055 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 147N 0719E 070 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 159N 0712E 080 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 173N 0704E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 201N 0689E 110 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 232N 0689E 080 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 259N 0702E 040
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 12.1N 72.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 72.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.4N 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.7N 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.9N 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.3N 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.1N 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 23.2N 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.9N 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 72.3E.
14MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 819 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.
//
0121051212 94N 672E 25
0121051218 94N 687E 20
0121051300 95N 700E 20
0121051306 97N 710E 25
0121051312 101N 714E 30
0121051318 105N 716E 30
0121051400 109N 718E 30
0121051406 114N 720E 40
0121051412 119N 722E 40
0121051418 121N 723E 45
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 12.1N 72.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 72.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.4N 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.7N 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.9N 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.3N 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 20.1N 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 23.2N 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 25.9N 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 72.3E.
14MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 819 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 141500
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 210514135717
2021051412 01A ONE 002 01 020 05 SATL 040
T000 119N 0722E 040 R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 131N 0723E 050 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 144N 0720E 065 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 158N 0714E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 171N 0706E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 198N 0694E 110 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 233N 0689E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 268N 0709E 040
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 11.9N 72.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 72.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.1N 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.4N 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.8N 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.1N 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.8N 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 23.3N 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 26.8N 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 72.2E.
14MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
828 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.//
0121051212 94N 672E 25
0121051218 94N 687E 20
0121051300 95N 700E 20
0121051306 97N 710E 25
0121051312 101N 714E 30
0121051318 105N 716E 30
0121051400 109N 718E 30
0121051406 114N 720E 40
0121051412 119N 722E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 11.9N 72.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 72.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.1N 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.4N 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.8N 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.1N 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.8N 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 23.3N 68.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 26.8N 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 72.2E.
14MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
828 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 140900
WARNING ATCG MIL 01A NIO 210514085000
2021051406 01A ONE 001 01 020 05 SATL 060
T000 116N 0721E 035 R034 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 126N 0724E 045 R034 110 NE QD 200 SE QD 200 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 139N 0724E 055 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 153N 0718E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 167N 0710E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 191N 0695E 110 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 226N 0690E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 261N 0706E 045
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 11.6N 72.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 72.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 12.6N 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.9N 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.3N 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.7N 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.1N 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 22.6N 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 26.1N 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 72.2E.
14MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
843 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.//
0121051212 94N 672E 25
0121051218 94N 687E 20
0121051300 95N 700E 20
0121051306 97N 710E 25
0121051312 101N 714E 30
0121051318 106N 716E 30
0121051400 111N 719E 30
0121051406 116N 721E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131151ZMAY2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 11.6N 72.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 72.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 12.6N 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.9N 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 15.3N 71.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.7N 71.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.1N 69.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 22.6N 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 26.1N 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 72.2E.
14MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
843 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 140231Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE INDICATE A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED,
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35
KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, IMPROVING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (31C) SST VALUES. TC 01A
IS TRACKING SLOWLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TC 01A IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE
RECURVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96 WITH A 155NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
AT TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, THE MODELS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE. DUE TO THE EXCELLENT
CONDITIONS, TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24
WITH A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72. STEADY WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PAKISTAN/INDIA BORDER WITH MORE RAPID
WEAKENING AFTER THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z,
150300Z AND 150900Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 131200).//
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