Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HENRI-21
in United States

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Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 230243
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Henri Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

Henri has continued to weaken over land and synoptic surface
observations indicate that its maximum winds have decreased to near
25 kt. A little more weakening is likely during the next 48 hours,
and simulated satellite imagery from the global models indicate that
the system will be post-tropical after its expected re-emergence
into the Atlantic in 36 hours or so. Beyond 48 hours the dynamical
guidance suggests that the system will lose its identity.

Satellite imagery and surface data indicate that the center is
moving slowly west-northwestward, or 290/7 kt. Henri is interacting
with another cyclonic circulation over the northeastern United
States. As a result of this interaction, the tropical cyclone is
expected to briefly come to a halt overnight, turn toward the
east-northeast on Monday, and continue an east-northeastward motion
into Tuesday. The official forecast track is similar to the
dynamical model consensus, TVCN.

Although Henri's winds are weakening, the cyclone will still
continue to be a prolific rain producer, resulting in significant
flooding across southern New England and portions of the northern
mid-Atlantic states for the next day or two.

This is the last advisory by the National Hurricane Center on Henri.
Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories
issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 5 AM EDT, under
AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue to lead to considerable flash,
urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for
additional minor to isolated moderate river flooding over portions
of Long Island, New England, eastern New York, New Jersey and
northeast Pennsylvania.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 41.9N 73.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 23/1200Z 42.1N 73.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/0000Z 42.4N 72.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1200Z 42.8N 69.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 25/0000Z 43.4N 65.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 230243
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Henri Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...SLOW-MOVING HENRI EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.9N 73.2W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NNE OF NEW YORK CITY
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WNW OF HARTFORD CONNECTICUT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Henri
was located near latitude 41.9 North, longitude 73.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h),
and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected
through early Monday morning. A slow turn toward the north is
expected Monday morning, followed by a motion toward the
east-northeast Monday afternoon. A faster motion toward the
east-northeast is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Henri
is expected to slow down further and possibly stall near the
Connecticut-New York border tonight, then move across Massachusetts
on Monday afternoon and Monday night and over the Atlantic on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional slow weakening is likely during the next couple of
days.

The minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is
1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 3 to
6 inches with locally higher amounts expected over portions of Long
Island, New England, southeast New York, New Jersey, and northeast
Pennsylvania through Monday. Isolated maximum totals of 10 to 12
inches are possible across northern New Jersey into southern New
York. Heavy rainfall from Henri will continue to result in
considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the
potential for additional minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Tropical Depression Henri see the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html

SURF: Swells are expected to continue across much of the east coast
of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada tonight and into Monday. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Tropical Depression Henri. Future information on this
system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather
Prediction Center beginning at 5 AM EDT, under AWIPS header
TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.


$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 230242
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021
0300 UTC MON AUG 23 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.9N 73.2W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.9N 73.2W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.8N 72.9W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 42.1N 73.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 42.4N 72.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 42.8N 69.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 43.4N 65.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.9N 73.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON HENRI. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 5 AM EDT, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT3, WMO HEADER WTNT33
KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 222346
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...HENRI WEAKENING BUT STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.7N 72.8W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF HARTFORD CONNECTICUT
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM NE OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Henri
was located by surface observations near latitude 41.7 North,
longitude 72.8 West. Henri is moving toward the west-northwest near
7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward
speed is expected through early Monday morning. A slow turn toward
the north is expected Monday morning, followed by a motion toward
the east-northeast Monday afternoon. On the forecast track, Henri is
expected to slow down further and possibly stall near the
Connecticut-New York border tonight, then move across northern
Connecticut or southern Massachusetts by Monday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 3 to
6 inches with locally higher amounts expected over portions of Long
Island, New England, southeast New York, New Jersey, and northeast
Pennsylvania Sunday into Monday. Isolated maximum totals of 10 to 12
inches are possible across northern New Jersey into southern New
York. Heavy rainfall from Henri will continue to result in
considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the
potential for additional minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Henri at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html

SURF: Swells are expected to continue across much of the east
coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada tonight and continue into
Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 222053
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

Henri's satellite and radar signatures have continued to erode
during the day today owing to moderate southeasterly vertical wind
shear and entrainment of drier and more stable air off of the cooler
Atlantic waters. The primary rain shield has shifted into the
western semicircle, which is typical for tropical cyclones that are
in the early stages of undergoing extratropical transition. Doppler
radar velocity data from Upton, New York, and Boston, Massachusetts,
along with surface observations indicate that Henri's peak winds
have continued to decrease, with any tropical-storm-force winds now
confined to the offshore waters of Long Island Sound. Additional
spin down of the vortex and weakening of the low-level wind field
are anticipated due to land interaction and entrainment of
additional stable air. As a result of these unfavorable conditions,
Henri should weaken to a tropical depression this evening, and
become a post-tropical remnant low by Monday afternoon or evening.

Henri is now moving west-northwestward or 290/06 kt. The tropical
storm has finally made the much anticipated sharp turn toward the
west-northwest around the northeastern periphery of a mid- to
upper-level low currently located over southern New Jersey. These
two weather systems are forecast to slowly dumbbell in a counter-
clockwise motion, with Henri's circulation absorbing the other low
by Monday morning, possibly resulting in Henri stalling near the
New York-Connecticut border. By early Monday afternoon, a weak
mid-tropospheric shortwave currently moving across the Great Lakes
region is expected to eject the cyclone or its remnants eastward
to east-northeastward across southern New England and into the Gulf
of Maine by Monday night, before dissipating near or over Nova
Scotia on Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous advisory track, and remains close to the tightly packed
simple- and corrected-consensus track models TVCA, HCCA, and FSSE.

Although Henri's winds will be weakening, the cyclone will still
continue to be a prolific rain producer, resulting in significant
flooding across southern New England and portions of the
northern mid-Atlantic states for the next day or two.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue to lead to considerable flash,
urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for
additional minor to isolated moderate river flooding over portions
of Long Island, New England, eastern New York, New Jersey and
northeast Pennsylvania.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 41.6N 72.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 23/0600Z 42.0N 73.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 23/1800Z 42.6N 73.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/0600Z 43.0N 70.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 24/1800Z 43.6N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 222040
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...HENRI WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL CONNECTICUT...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.6N 72.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NE OF NEW YORK CITY
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SE OF HARTFORD CONNECTICUT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located by surface observations and and NOAA Doppler weather radars
near latitude 41.6 North, longitude 72.4 West. Henri is moving
toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early
Monday morning. A slow turn toward the north is expected Monday
morning, followed by a motion toward the east-northeast Monday
afternoon. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to slow down
further and possibly stall near the Connecticut-New York border
tonight, then move across northern Connecticut or southern
Massachusetts by Monday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days, and Henri is expected to become a tropical
depression this evening and degenerate into a post-tropical remnant
low by Monday afternoon.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center, mainly over Long Island Sound. A sustained wind of
29 mph (47 km/h) and a gust to 42 mph (68 km/h) were recently
measured by a private weather station at Orient Point on eastern
Long Island.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 3 to
6 inches with locally higher amounts expected over portions of Long
Island, New England, southeast New York, New Jersey, and northeast
Pennsylvania Sunday into Monday. Isolated maximum totals of 10 to 12
inches are possible across northern New Jersey into southern New
York. Heavy rainfall from Henri will continue to result in
considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the
potential for additional minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with
Henri at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html

WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible along
coastal areas of Connecticut and northern Long Island during the
next few hours.

SURF: Swells are expected to continue across much of the east
coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and continue into
Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 222039
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021
2100 UTC SUN AUG 22 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.6N 72.4W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.6N 72.4W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.5N 72.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.0N 73.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 42.6N 73.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 43.0N 70.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 43.6N 66.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.6N 72.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 221809 CCA
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 27A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

Corrected initial latitude and distance to reference points in
summary block.

...HENRI SLOWS DOWN OVER SOUTHWESTERN RHODE ISLAND...
...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.4N 71.8W
ABOUT 5 MI...5 KM N OF WESTERLY RHODE ISLAND
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet New York to Chatham Massachusetts, including
Long Island
* Block Island, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Henri.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located by surface observations and and NOAA Doppler weather radars
near latitude 41.4 North, longitude 71.8 West. Henri is now moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion
with a decrease in forward speed is expected this afternoon. The
center of Henri is currently located inland over southwestern Rhode
Island. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to slow down
further and possibly stall near the Connecticut-New York border
tonight, with an east-northeastward motion across northern
Connecticut and southern Massachusetts on expected on Monday.

Data from Doppler radars and surface observations indicate that
maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (80 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected now that Henri has
moved inland over southern New England.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from nearby surface
observations is 991 mb (29.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New
York, New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania Sunday into Monday,
with isolated maximum totals near 12 inches. Heavy rainfall from
Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream
flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated
moderate river flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk
Point, NY...1-2 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing, NY to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...1-2 ft
Flushing, NY to Merrimack River, MA including Narragansett Bay,
Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, Nantucket Sound, and Cape Cod
Bay...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
tropical storm warning area into tonight.

TORNADOES: The risk for a tornado or two continues today across
parts of southern New England.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should diminish around Bermuda
later today. Swells are expected to increase across much of the
east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and continue into
Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 221758
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...HENRI SLOWS DOWN OVER SOUTHWESTERN RHODE ISLAND...
...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.3N 71.8W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF WESTERLY RHODE ISLAND
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet New York to Chatham Massachusetts, including
Long Island
* Block Island, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Henri.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars near latitude 41.3 North, longitude 71.8
West. Henri is now moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15
km/h). A northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected this afternoon. The center of Henri is currently located
inland over southwestern Rhode Island. On the forecast track, Henri
is expected to slow down further and possibly stall near the
Connecticut-New York border tonight, with an east-northeastward
motion across northern Connecticut and southern Massachusetts on
expected on Monday.

Data from Doppler radars and surface observations indicate that
maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (80 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected now that Henri has
moved inland over southern New England.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from nearby surface
observations is 991 mb (29.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New
York, New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania Sunday into Monday,
with isolated maximum totals near 12 inches. Heavy rainfall from
Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream
flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated
moderate river flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk
Point, NY...1-2 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing, NY to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...1-2 ft
Flushing, NY to Merrimack River, MA including Narragansett Bay,
Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, Nantucket Sound, and Cape Cod
Bay...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
tropical storm warning area into tonight.

TORNADOES: The risk for a tornado or two continues today across
parts of southern New England.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should diminish around Bermuda
later today. Swells are expected to increase across much of the
east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and continue into
Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 221628
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Henri Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1230 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...TROPICAL STORM HENRI MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF RHODE
ISLAND NEAR WESTERLY...

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, NOAA Doppler
weather radars, and surface observations indicate that the center of
Tropical Storm Henri made landfall along the coast of Rhode Island
near Westerly at approximately 1215 PM EDT this afternoon. At the
time of landfall, maximum sustained winds were estimated to be 60
mph.

A Weatherflow station near Point Judith, Rhode Island, recently
measured a sustained wind of 57 mph (92 km/h) and a gust to 70 mph
(113 km/h). The center of Henri passed over Block Island, Rhode
Island, around 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC.


SUMMARY OF 1215 PM EDT...1615 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.3N 71.8W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Brennan

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 221559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 22.08.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94E ANALYSED POSITION : 19.6N 105.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP942021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2021 0 19.6N 105.9W 1002 40
0000UTC 23.08.2021 12 20.8N 109.0W 997 33
1200UTC 23.08.2021 24 21.7N 112.0W 1000 31
0000UTC 24.08.2021 36 22.2N 114.6W 1003 26
1200UTC 24.08.2021 48 22.3N 116.7W 1006 22
0000UTC 25.08.2021 60 22.3N 118.2W 1006 21
1200UTC 25.08.2021 72 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LINDA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.9N 151.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2021 0 20.9N 151.9W 1006 32
0000UTC 23.08.2021 12 21.1N 153.8W 1007 33
1200UTC 23.08.2021 24 21.3N 155.9W 1010 30
0000UTC 24.08.2021 36 21.1N 158.9W 1012 29
1200UTC 24.08.2021 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM HENRI ANALYSED POSITION : 40.6N 71.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2021 0 40.6N 71.3W 993 41
0000UTC 23.08.2021 12 42.0N 72.9W 1002 24
1200UTC 23.08.2021 24 42.5N 74.3W 1004 19
0000UTC 24.08.2021 36 42.1N 73.1W 1004 25
1200UTC 24.08.2021 48 42.3N 70.1W 1007 25
0000UTC 25.08.2021 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 12.3N 132.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.08.2021 48 12.4N 131.5W 1006 30
0000UTC 25.08.2021 60 12.6N 130.1W 1005 30
1200UTC 25.08.2021 72 12.5N 129.2W 1004 30
0000UTC 26.08.2021 84 12.8N 128.3W 1003 31
1200UTC 26.08.2021 96 13.2N 127.9W 1002 31
0000UTC 27.08.2021 108 13.4N 128.2W 1002 31
1200UTC 27.08.2021 120 13.3N 128.7W 1001 33
0000UTC 28.08.2021 132 13.4N 129.3W 1001 31
1200UTC 28.08.2021 144 13.4N 129.8W 1003 33

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 17.6N 110.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.08.2021 72 17.6N 110.9W 1005 20
0000UTC 26.08.2021 84 18.4N 113.0W 1003 21
1200UTC 26.08.2021 96 18.3N 114.6W 1003 23
0000UTC 27.08.2021 108 18.9N 115.6W 1003 20
1200UTC 27.08.2021 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 11.1N 87.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.08.2021 96 11.1N 87.0W 1004 29
0000UTC 27.08.2021 108 12.0N 87.5W 1000 36
1200UTC 27.08.2021 120 12.7N 86.7W 1003 30
0000UTC 28.08.2021 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 9.4N 140.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2021 120 9.1N 140.8W 1007 23
0000UTC 28.08.2021 132 8.5N 141.7W 1006 23
1200UTC 28.08.2021 144 8.5N 142.7W 1007 24

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 12.0N 99.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2021 120 12.7N 100.3W 1003 31
0000UTC 28.08.2021 132 13.5N 101.7W 1000 34
1200UTC 28.08.2021 144 13.9N 101.9W 997 37


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 221559

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 221559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 22.08.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94E ANALYSED POSITION : 19.6N 105.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP942021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.08.2021 19.6N 105.9W WEAK
00UTC 23.08.2021 20.8N 109.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.08.2021 21.7N 112.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2021 22.2N 114.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2021 22.3N 116.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2021 22.3N 118.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM LINDA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.9N 151.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.08.2021 20.9N 151.9W WEAK
00UTC 23.08.2021 21.1N 153.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2021 21.3N 155.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2021 21.1N 158.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM HENRI ANALYSED POSITION : 40.6N 71.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.08.2021 40.6N 71.3W MODERATE
00UTC 23.08.2021 42.0N 72.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.08.2021 42.5N 74.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2021 42.1N 73.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2021 42.3N 70.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 12.3N 132.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.08.2021 12.4N 131.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2021 12.6N 130.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2021 12.5N 129.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2021 12.8N 128.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2021 13.2N 127.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2021 13.4N 128.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2021 13.3N 128.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2021 13.4N 129.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2021 13.4N 129.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 17.6N 110.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.08.2021 17.6N 110.9W WEAK
00UTC 26.08.2021 18.4N 113.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2021 18.3N 114.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2021 18.9N 115.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 11.1N 87.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.08.2021 11.1N 87.0W WEAK
00UTC 27.08.2021 12.0N 87.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2021 12.7N 86.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 9.4N 140.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.08.2021 9.1N 140.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.08.2021 8.5N 141.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2021 8.5N 142.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 12.0N 99.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.08.2021 12.7N 100.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2021 13.5N 101.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2021 13.9N 101.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 221559

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 221501
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

Henri's presentation in both satellite and radar imagery has
degraded significantly since the previous advisory due to the
cyclone having moved over much cooler water. An eyewall feature is
no longer evident and clouds tops have warmed markedly in the
inner-core region around the center. Data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft, NOAA Doppler weather radars, and surface
observations indicate that Henri's peak winds have decreased to
50 kt despite the central pressure remaining constant at about 987
mb.

Henri is moving north-northwestward or 335/10 kt. The cyclone is
forecast to gradually turn northwestward later this afternoon and
possibly even move westward before stalling near the New
York-Connecticut border later tonight owing to interaction with a
mid- to upper-level low located over he DelMarVa region. The latter
system is expected to be absorbed by Henri by early Monday morning
before ejecting out slowly eastward to east-northeastward across
southern New England by Monday afternoon and evening. Henri is then
forecast to cross the southern Gulf of Maine and Nova Scotia as a
remnant low on Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast is a little to
the west and south of the previous advisory track, and lies close
to the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track models.

Little change in strength is expected until Henri makes landfall in
the Rhode Island-eastern Connecticut area this afternoon. After
landfall, rapid weakening is forecast due to land interaction and
entrainment of cooler air coming in off of the Atlantic Ocean. Henri
should weaken to a tropical depression by early Monday, and become
post-tropical by Monday afternoon or evening.

Due to the degraded radar presentation of Henri, hourly Tropical
Cyclone Updates (TCU) will be discontinued after the 1100 AM EDT
advisory.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to continue today
in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and
southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been
issued. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the
tropical storm warning area into tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to
isolated moderate river flooding over portions of Long Island, New
England, eastern New York, New Jersey and northeast Pennsylvania.

4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast
of the U.S. during the next day or so. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 41.1N 71.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 42.4N 73.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 23/1200Z 43.0N 72.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/0000Z 43.3N 71.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 24/1200Z 43.7N 68.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 25/0000Z 44.3N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 221451
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...CENTER OF HENRI PASSING CLOSE TO BLOCK ISLAND AS THE STORM HEADS
FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, STRONG GUSTY WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.1N 71.6W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM E OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued from East Rockaway
Inlet to west of Mastic Beach, New York, and from north of Chatham,
Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, including Cape Cod
Bay.

The Tropical Storm Warning from East Rockaway Inlet, New York to
Manasquan Inlet, New Jersey has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New
York
* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet New York to Chatham Massachusetts, including
Long Island
* Block Island, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Henri.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars near latitude 41.1 North, longitude 71.6
West. Henri is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h). A north-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed
is expected for the next few hours, followed by a turn toward the
northwest this afternoon. The center of Henri is currently passing
near Block Island and on the forecast track the center is expected
to make landfall in Rhode Island by early afternoon. Henri is
forecast to slow down and possibly stall near the Connecticut-New
York border tonight, followed by an east-northeastward motion across
northern Connecticut and southern Massachusetts on Monday.

Data from the aircraft, Doppler radars, and surface observations
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph
(95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected
until landfall occurs, followed by rapid weakening after Henri moves
inland over southern New England.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. A Weatherflow station on Block Island, Rhode
Island, recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) and
a gust to 65 mph (105 km/h). Another Weatherflow station near Point
Judith, Rhode Island, recently measured a sustained wind of 51 mph
(82 km/h) and a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h). The NOAA C-MAN station at
Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts, recently measured a sustained wind of
49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust to 57 mph (92 km/h), while an amateur
radio operator in Westport, Massachusetts, recently reported a
sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a gust to 62 mph (100 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...2-4 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing, NY to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...2-4 ft
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point,
NY...2-4 ft
Chatham, MA to Merrimack River, MA including Cape Cod Bay and
Massachusetts Bay...1-2 ft
East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Mastic Beach, NY...1-2 ft

Recent reports from an amateur radio operator in Newport, Rhode
Island, indicate that storm surge inundation near 1 ft has occurred,
with water reported in the streets in some areas of the city.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
tropical storm warning area into tonight. Some tree and power line
damage has already been reported across southern Rhode Island.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New
York, New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania Sunday into Monday,
with isolated maximum totals near 12 inches. Heavy rainfall from
Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream
flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated
moderate river flooding.

TORNADOES: The risk for a tornado or two continues today across
parts of southern New England.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should diminish around Bermuda
later today. Swells are expected to increase across much of the
east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and continue into
Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 221450
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021
1500 UTC SUN AUG 22 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM EAST ROCKAWAY
INLET TO WEST OF MASTIC BEACH NEW YORK AND FROM NORTH OF CHATHAM
MASSACHUSETTS TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD
BAY.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET NEW YORK TO
MANASQUAN INLET NEW JERSEY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MASTIC BEACH TO MONTAUK POINT NEW
YORK
* NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MONTAUK POINT TO FLUSHING NEW YORK
* FLUSHING NEW YORK TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS
* NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST ROCKAWAY INLET NEW YORK TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
LONG ISLAND
* BLOCK ISLAND...NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF HENRI.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.1N 71.6W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 110SE 70SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.1N 71.6W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.7N 71.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 42.4N 73.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 43.0N 72.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 43.3N 71.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 43.7N 68.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 44.3N 64.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.1N 71.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 221351
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Henri Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1000 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...1000 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND...

A Weatherflow station on Block Island, Rhode Island, recently
reported a sustained wind of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 63 mph
(101 km/h). Another Weatherflow station near Point Judith, Rhode
Island, recently measured a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and
a gust to 51 mph (82 km/h), while a station at Great Gull Island
near the eastern end of Long Island, New York, measured a sustained
wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (90 km/h). The NOAA
C-MAN station at Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts, recently measured a
sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (84 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.9N 71.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Brennan

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 221252
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Henri Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
900 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...900 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

A Weatherflow station on Block Island, Rhode Island, recently
reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 59 mph
(95 km/h). Another Weatherflow station near Narragansett, Rhode
Island, recently measured a sustained wind of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a
gust to 54 mph (87 km/h), while another station at Great Gull
Island near the eastern end of Long Island, New York, measured a
sustained wind of 36 mph (58 km/h) and a gust to 45 mph 72 (km/h).
The NOAA C-MAN station at Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts, recently
measured a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 58 mph
(93 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.8N 71.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 221155
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...CENTER OF HENRI MOVING CLOSER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, STRONG GUSTY WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL
ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.7N 71.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for Long Island, the southern coast of New
England, and Block Island has been changed to a Tropical Storm
Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New
York
* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manasquan Inlet New Jersey to Chatham Massachusetts, including
Long Island and New York City
* Block Island, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Henri.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located by reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars
near latitude 40.7 North, longitude 71.3 West. Henri is moving
toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A north-
northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected
this morning. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make
landfall in southern New England or on Long Island later this
morning or early this afternoon. After landfall, a turn back toward
the north and an even slower forward speed are expected as Henri
moves over southern New England.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight weakening will be possible this morning, but
Henri is still forecast to be a strong tropical storm when it
reaches the coasts of southern New England and Long island. Rapid
weakening is expected after Henri makes landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205
km). A Weatherflow station on Block Island, Rhode Island, recently
reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a gust to 50 mph
(80 km/h). A Weatherflow station near Narragansett, Rhode Island,
recently measured a sustained wind of 44 mph (71 km/h) and a gust to
55 mph (89 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point,
NY...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach,
NY...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft
Sagamore Beach, MA to Merrimack River including Massachusetts
Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
tropical storm warning area into tonight.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New
York, New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania today into Monday, with
isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri
may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur today over southern
New England.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
today. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east
coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and continue into
Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 221118 CCA
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Henri Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
700 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

Corrected location of Narragansett to Rhode Island.

...700 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

A Weatherflow station on Block Island, Rhode Island, recently
reported a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph
(68 km/h). A Weatherflow station near Narragansett, Rhode Island,
recently measured a sustained wind of 40 mph (63 km/h) and a gust
to 52 mph (84 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.6N 71.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 221055
TCUAT3

Tropical Storm Henri Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
700 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...700 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

A Weatherflow station on Block Island, Rhode Island, recently
reported a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph
(68 km/h). A Weatherflow station near Narragansett, Massachusetts,
recently measured a sustained wind of 40 mph (63 km/h) and a gust
to 52 mph (84 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.6N 71.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT63 KNHC 220955
TCUAT3

Hurricane Henri Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
600 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...600 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

A Weatherflow station on Block Island, Rhode Island recently
reported sustained winds of 36 mph (58 km/h) with a gust to 42 mph
(68 km/h). A Weatherflow station near Narragansett, Massachusetts
recently reported sustained winds of 33 mph (53 km/h) with a gust to
39 mph (63 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 600 AM AST...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.3N 71.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 220905 CCA
TCDAT3

Hurricane Henri Discussion Number 26...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

Henri's satellite presentation has remained largely unchanged
overnight and early this morning. Deep convection remains over
the center and NWS Doppler radar imagery has revealed a convection
band that wraps around the circulation forming a loose banding-eye
feature. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that has
been in the storm for much of the night has reported that the
pressure is slightly lower than earlier, around 986 mb, but the
flight-level and SFMR winds are not quite as high as before. The
initial intensity is maintained at 65 kt for this advisory. The
current reconnaissance mission will be in Henri for a few more
hours and should provide additional information on the storm's
intensity.

Henri has been moving just west of due north or 350/15 kt. The
storm is expected to move north-northwestward today around the
northeastern portion of a cut-off low over the central Appalachians.
Some deceleration is indicated by the model guidance, but this
motion should bring the center near the eastern portion of Long
Island and into southern New England later this morning or early
this afternoon. There is still a little spread in the track
guidance regarding the landfall point, but the updated NHC forecast
lies very close to the previous advisory for the first 12 hours,
and is between the multi-model consensus aids and the ECMWF and GFS
which are slightly to the left. Regardless of the exact landfall
location, storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend far
from the center. After landfall, Henri should slow down and turn
east-northeastward on Monday as it becomes embedded in the southern
extent of the mid-latitude westerlies. The guidance envelope has
shifted a little westward from 24 to 48 hours, and the NHC forecast
has been adjusted accordingly.

Henri has moved north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream and will
encounter cooler waters on its approach to New England. Although
some slight weakening is possible, Henri is expected to at or near
hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of southern New
England. Even if slight weakening does occur it will have little
difference on the expected storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts.
Rapid weakening should occur after landfall. Henri is expected to
weaken to a tropical depression by early Monday, and become
post-tropical shortly thereafter.

With the center within radar range and fairly well trackable,
hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will be issued beginning at 600 AM
EDT (1000 UTC) to provide updates on Henri's center location. These
updates will continue as long as the center remains trackable in
radar imagery.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin this
morning in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and
southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been
issued. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin this morning in
portions of Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, where a
Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions
will begin in these areas within the next couple of hours.

3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to
isolated moderate river flooding over portions of Long Island, New
England, eastern New York and New Jersey.

4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast
of the U.S. during the next day or so. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 40.1N 71.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 41.5N 71.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 23/0600Z 42.7N 72.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1800Z 43.5N 72.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 24/0600Z 43.8N 70.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 24/1800Z 44.2N 67.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 220853
TCDAT3

Hurricane Henri Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

Henri's satellite presentation has remained largely unchanged
overnight and early this morning. Deep convection remains over
the center and NWS Doppler radar imagery has revealed a convection
band that wraps around the circulation forming a lose banding-eye
feature. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that has
been in the storm for much of the night has reported that the
pressure is slightly lower than earlier, around 986 mb, but the
flight-level and SFMR winds are not quite as high as before. The
initial intensity is maintained at 65 kt for this advisory. The
current reconnaissance mission will be in Henri for a few more
hours and should provide additional information on the storm's
intensity.

Henri has been moving just west of due north or 350/15 kt. The
storm is expected to move north-northwestward today around the
northeastern portion of a cut-off low over the central Appalachians.
Some deceleration is indicated by the model guidance, but this
motion should bring the center near the eastern portion of Long
Island and into southern New England later this morning or early
this afternoon. There is still a little spread in the track
guidance regarding the landfall point, but the updated NHC forecast
lies very close to the previous advisory for the first 12 hours,
and is between the multi-model consensus aids and the ECMWF and GFS
which are slightly to the left. Regardless of the exact landfall
location, storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend far
from the center. After landfall, Henri should slow down and turn
east-northeastward on Monday as it becomes embedded in the southern
extent of the mid-latitude westerlies. The guidance envelope has
shifted a little westward from 24 to 48 hours, and the NHC forecast
has been adjusted accordingly.

Henri has moved north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream and will
encounter cooler waters on its approach to New England. Although
some slight weakening is possible, Henri is expected to at or near
hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of southern New
England. Even if slight weakening does occur it will have little
difference on the expected storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts.
Rapid weakening should occur after landfall. Henri is expected to
weaken to a tropical depression by early Monday, and become
post-tropical shortly thereafter.

With the center within radar range and fairly well trackable,
hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will be issued beginning at 600 AM
EDT (1000 UTC) to provide updates on Henri's center location. These
updates will continue as long as the center remains trackable in
radar imagery.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin this
morning in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and
southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been
issued. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin this morning in
portions of Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, where a
Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions
will begin in these areas within the next couple of hours.

3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to
isolated moderate river flooding over portions of Long Island, New
England, eastern New York and New Jersey.

4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast
of the U.S. during the next day or so. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 40.1N 71.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 41.5N 71.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 23/0600Z 42.7N 72.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1800Z 43.5N 72.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 24/0600Z 43.8N 70.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 24/1800Z 44.2N 67.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 220852
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Henri Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...OUTER BANDS OF HENRI MOVING ONSHORE IN EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.1N 71.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New
York
* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Westport Massachusetts
* Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet
* Westport Massachusetts to Chatham Massachusetts, including
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket
* Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to
Manasquan Inlet, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Henri.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Henri was located
near latitude 40.1 North, longitude 71.2 West. Henri is moving
toward the north near 18 mph (30 km/h). A decrease in forward
speed and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected this
morning. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall
in southern New England or on Long Island late this morning or
early this afternoon. After landfall, a turn to the north and a
slower forward speed are expected as Henri moves over southern New
England.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected this morning, and
Henri is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it
reaches the coasts of southern New England and Long island. Rapid
weakening is expected after Henri makes landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Hurricane Hunter data is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point,
NY...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach,
NY...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft
Sagamore Beach, MA to Merrimack River including Massachusetts
Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area today, with tropical storm conditions beginning within the
next hour or two. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in the tropical storm warning area beginning this morning and
continuing into tonight.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New
York, New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania today into Monday, with
isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri
may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated moderate
river flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur today over southern
New England.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
today. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east
coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and continue into
Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 220852
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021
0900 UTC SUN AUG 22 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MASTIC BEACH TO MONTAUK POINT NEW
YORK
* NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MONTAUK POINT TO FLUSHING NEW YORK
* FLUSHING NEW YORK TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS
* NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MASTIC NEW YORK
* NORTH OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS
* CAPE COD BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT
* NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO MONTAUK
POINT
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS
* BLOCK ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO WEST OF NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT
* SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO EAST
ROCKAWAY INLET
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET
* COASTAL NEW YORK AND NEW JERSEY WEST OF EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO
MANASQUAN INLET...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF HENRI.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.1N 71.2W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 110SE 80SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 120SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.1N 71.2W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 71.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 41.5N 71.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 60SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 70SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.7N 72.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 43.5N 72.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 43.8N 70.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 44.2N 67.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.1N 71.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 220552
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
200 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021

...HENRI HEADING TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND...
...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
BEGINNING THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.3N 71.0W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New
York
* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Westport Massachusetts
* Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet
* Westport Massachusetts to Chatham Massachusetts, including
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket
* Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to
Manasquan Inlet, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case beginning within
the next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in this case beginning within the next 12 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Henri.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Henri was located
near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 71.0 West. Henri is moving
toward the north near 21 mph (33 km/h). A decrease in forward
speed and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected later this
morning. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall
in southern New England or on Long Island today. After landfall, a
turn to the north and a slower forward speed are expected as Henri
moves over southern New England.

Reports from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is possible early this morning.
Weakening is expected to begin later today. However, Henri is
expected to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the
coasts of southern New England and Long island. Rapid weakening is
expected after Henri makes landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 987 mb (29.15
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point,
NY...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach,
NY...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft
Sagamore Beach, MA to Merrimack River including Massachusetts
Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area today, with tropical storm conditions beginning within the
next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area beginning this morning and continuing
into tonight.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New
York, and New Jersey today into Monday, with isolated maximum
totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in
considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the
potential for widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur today over southern
New England.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
today. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east
coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and continue into
Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 220249
TCDAT3

Hurricane Henri Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

The convective pattern associated with Henri is less ragged than it
was 6 h ago, as the convection has increased near the center and a
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a 25 n mi wide eye has
formed However, the hurricane has not yet strengthened
significantly, as the maximum winds remain about 65 kt in the
southeastern eyewall and the central pressure is near 987 mb.

Henri has moved a little to the right of the previous track at
18-20 kt during the past several hours. However, the cyclone now
seems to be moving northward with an initial motion of 355/18 kt.
There is no change to the forecast track philosophy. A cut-off
low located over the central Appalachians and a ridge building to
the east and northeast of Henri should cause the storm to move
generally northward tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest and
a slower forward speed are expected on Sunday, which should bring
the center near or over southern New England or Long Island between
18-24 h. With the more eastward initial position, the forecast
track is shifted a bit to the east of the previous forecast.
However, there is still some uncertainty of the landfall point, as
several of the guidance models are to the left of the official
forecast. After landfall, Henri should slow its forward speed and
turn eastward as it become steered by the mid-latitude westerlies.
Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as the
average 24-hour track uncertainty is around 40 miles and impacts
will extend well away from the center.

Henri is almost out of time to strengthen, as the center will be
moving north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream during the next
several hours. The intensity forecast will call for modest
strengthening during the first 12 h based on the premise that
strengthening will occur before Henri reaches the cooler waters.
After that, while the cyclone should start to weaken before
landfall, it should still be near or at hurricane strength when it
reaches southern New England. Rapid weakening is expected after
landfall, and Henri is again forecast to become post-tropical in
about 48 hours and dissipate in 3 to 4 days.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin late
tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode
Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning
has been issued. Residents in these areas should follow any advice
given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late tonight or
Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island,
where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions
will begin in these areas late tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to
isolated moderate river flooding over portions of Long Island, New
England, eastern New York and New Jersey.

4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast
of the U.S. during the next day or two. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 38.6N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 40.3N 71.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 41.9N 71.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1200Z 43.1N 71.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/0000Z 43.9N 70.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 24/1200Z 44.4N 68.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 25/0000Z 44.8N 63.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 220249
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Henri Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT HENRI IS MOVING NORTHWARD
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND...
...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.6N 71.0W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New
York
* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Westport Massachusetts
* Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet
* Westport Massachusetts to Chatham Massachusetts, including
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket
* Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to
Manasquan Inlet, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Henri.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Henri was located
near latitude 38.6 North, longitude 71.0 West. Henri is moving
toward the north near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected
to continue through tonight. A decrease in forward speed and a
turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Sunday. On the
forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in southern New
England or on Long Island on Sunday. After landfall, a turn to the
north and a slower forward speed are expected as Henri moves over
southern New England.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible tonight.
Weakening is expected on Sunday. However, Henri is expected to be at
or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coasts of southern
New England and Long island. Rapid weakening is expected after
Henri makes landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point,
NY...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach,
NY...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft
Sagamore Beach, MA to Merrimack River including Massachusetts
Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by late
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical
storm warning area late tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New
York, and New Jersey Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum
totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in
considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the
potential for widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New
England.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today
and Sunday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 220248
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021
0300 UTC SUN AUG 22 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MASTIC BEACH TO MONTAUK POINT NEW
YORK
* NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MONTAUK POINT TO FLUSHING NEW YORK
* FLUSHING NEW YORK TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS
* NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MASTIC NEW YORK
* NORTH OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS
* CAPE COD BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT
* NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO MONTAUK
POINT
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS
* BLOCK ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO WEST OF NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT
* SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO EAST
ROCKAWAY INLET
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET
* COASTAL NEW YORK AND NEW JERSEY WEST OF EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO
MANASQUAN INLET...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF HENRI.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 71.0W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 80SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 130SE 100SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 71.0W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 70.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 40.3N 71.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 80SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.9N 71.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 100SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 43.1N 71.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 43.9N 70.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 44.4N 68.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 44.8N 63.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.6N 71.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 212354
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...HENRI MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...
...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING
RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.4N 71.0W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New
York
* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Westport Massachusetts
* Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet
* Westport Massachusetts to Chatham Massachusetts, including
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket
* Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to
Manasquan Inlet, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Henri.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Henri was located
near latitude 37.4 North, longitude 71.0 West. Henri is moving
toward the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A decrease in forward speed
and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Sunday. On the
forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall on Long Island or
in southern New England on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast through tonight. Although some
weakening is expected prior to landfall on Sunday, Henri is forecast
to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coasts of
Long Island and southern New England.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point,
NY...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach,
NY...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft
Sagamore Beach, MA to Merrimack River including Massachusetts
Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area late tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New
York, and northern New Jersey Sunday into Monday, with isolated
maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result
in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with
the potential for minor and moderate river flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New
England.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today
and Sunday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 212033
TCDAT3

Hurricane Henri Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

Visible satellite images and microwave data indicate that a tight
inner core has formed in association with Henri, but the convective
pattern appears ragged in infrared images. An ASCAT pass from
earlier today indicated that the 34- and 50-kt winds continue to
expand in the southeastern quadrant, and that data was used to
update the initial wind radii. The latest Dvorak estimates range
from 55 to 77 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is
held at 65 kt. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be investigating
Henri this evening.

Henri is moving faster to the north-northeast, or 020 degrees, at 16
kt. There continues to be little change to the forecast track
philosophy. A cut-off low located over the central Appalachians and
a ridge building to the east and northeast of Henri should cause the
storm to continue moving north-northeastward through tonight. A
decresae in forward speed and a slight bend to the left is then
forecast to occur on Sunday. The latest model guidance has shifted
slightly to the right, and the NHC official track forecast has been
nudged in that direction. This forecast shows landfall over eastern
Long Island and southern Connecticut in about 24 hours. Users are
reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as the average
24-hour track uncertainty is around 40 miles and impacts will extend
well away from the center.

The environment looks favorable for Henri to strengthen through
tonight with low shear, upper-level divergence associated with the
upper-level trough, and warm SSTs. In fact, SST analyses indicate
that Henri will be passing over a patch of very warm 30 deg C waters
this evening. By early Sunday Henri is predicted to cross the
north wall of the Gulf Stream. That should result in some
weakening, but Henri is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength
at landfall. Once the center moves inland over the northeast
United States, rapid weakening is expected. Henri is forecast to
become post-tropical in about 48 hours and dissipate in 3 to 4 days.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin late
tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode
Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning
has been issued. Residents in these areas should follow any advice
given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late tonight or
Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island,
where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions
will begin in these areas tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to
isolated moderate river flooding over portions of Long Island, New
England, eastern New York and New Jersey.

4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast
of the U.S. during the next day or two. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 36.3N 71.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 38.8N 71.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 40.8N 72.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 42.1N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 23/1800Z 43.3N 71.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 24/0600Z 43.6N 69.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 24/1800Z 44.3N 68.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 212033
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Henri Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...HENRI MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...
...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING
RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.3N 71.4W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New
York
* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Westport Massachusetts
* Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet
* Westport Massachusetts to Chatham Massachusetts, including
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket
* Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to
Manasquan Inlet, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Henri.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Henri was located
near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 71.4 West. Henri is moving
toward the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A decrease in forward speed
and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Sunday. On the
forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall on Long Island or
in southern New England on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast through tonight. Although some
weakening is expected prior to landfall on Sunday, Henri is forecast
to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coasts of
Long Island and southern New England.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point,
NY...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach,
NY...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft
Sagamore Beach, MA to Merrimack River including Massachusetts
Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area late tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New
York, and northern New Jersey Sunday into Monday, with isolated
maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result
in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with
the potential for minor and moderate river flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New
England.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today
and Sunday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 211734
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...HENRI MOVING FASTER...
...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING
RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.4N 71.8W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New
York
* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Westport Massachusetts
* Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet
* Westport Massachusetts to Chatham Massachusetts, including
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket
* Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to
Manasquan Inlet, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Henri.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Henri was located
near latitude 35.4 North, longitude 71.8 West. Henri is moving
toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A decrease in forward speed
and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Sunday. On the
forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall on Long Island or
in southern New England on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast through tonight. Although some
weakening is expected prior to landfall on Sunday, Henri is forecast
to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coasts of
Long Island and southern New England.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure is estimated to be 991 mb (29.27
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point,
NY...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach,
NY...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft
Sagamore Beach, MA to Merrimack River including Massachusetts
Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area late tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New
York, and northern New Jersey Sunday into Monday, with isolated
maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result
in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with
the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river
flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New
England.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today
and Sunday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 211442
TCDAT3

Hurricane Henri Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

The Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunters have been
investigating Henri this morning and continue to provide very
valuable data. The Air Force aircraft measured a peak flight-level
wind of 82 kt at 700 mb, which easily supports hurricane strength,
but the initial intensity is set at 65 kt as a blend of these data
and somewhat lower SFMR winds. In addition, aircraft data indicate
that the minimum pressure has fallen to 991 mb. The NOAA tail
Doppler radar data indicate that the storm is becoming more
vertically aligned and that a more symmetric eyewall appears to be
forming. In addition, dropsonde data from the NOAA Gulfstream IV
aircraft flying around Henri indicate that the 34- and 50-kt wind
radii are a little larger than previously estimated in the
southeastern quadrant. NOAA buoy 41001 located in the northeastern
quadrant of the hurricane has recently reported 18 ft. seas.

Henri is moving north-northeastward, or 020 degrees, at 12 kt. The
steering pattern appears fairly well established now with a cut off
low located over the central Appalachians and a ridge building to
the east and northeast of Henri. This pattern should cause the
storm to accelerate to the north or north-northeast today followed
by a slight bend to the left on Sunday. The latest run of the GFS
has shifted to the east, but overall the models are focused in on
landfall being between central Long Island and Rhode Island on
Sunday. However, users are reminded to not focus on the center
itself, as impacts will extend well away from the center, especially
to the east. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the east of
the previous one and very near the best-performing models, the
consensus aids.

The environment looks favorable for Henri to continue to gain
strength through tonight with low shear, upper-level divergence
associated with the upper-level trough, and warm SSTs. In fact,
the GFS and HWRF models show the minimum pressure dropping by 15 mb
or more during that time period. By early Sunday, Henri is
predicted to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream and that should
cause some weakening, but Henri is forecast to be at or near
hurricane strength at landfall. Once the center moves inland over
the northeast United States, rapid weakening is expected. Henri is
forecast to become post-tropical in 48-60 hours and dissipate in 3
to 4 days.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin late
tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut,
Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge
Warning has been issued. Dangerous storm surge is possible
beginning late tonight or Sunday in western portions of Long
Island and Connecticut in the Storm Surge Watch area. Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late tonight or
Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island,
where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions
will begin in these areas tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and
isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of Long Island, New
England, southeast New York and northern New Jersey.

4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast
of the U.S. during the next day or two. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 34.4N 72.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 36.9N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 39.7N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 41.3N 72.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 23/1200Z 42.4N 72.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 24/0000Z 43.1N 71.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 24/1200Z 43.8N 69.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 211440
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Henri Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...HENRI IS NOW A HURRICANE...
...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING
RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 72.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for the southern coast of New England has been
extended eastward to west of Westport, Massachusetts, including
Block Island.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Massachusetts has been
extended eastward to Chatham, including Nantucket.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New
York
* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Westport Massachusetts
* Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet
* Westport Massachusetts to Chatham Massachusetts, including
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket
* Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to
Manasquan Inlet, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Henri.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Henri was located
near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 72.5 West. Henri is moving
toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A faster
northward to north-northeastward motion is expected today, followed
by a decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north-northwest
on Sunday. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make
landfall on Long Island or in southern New England on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through
tonight. Although some weakening is expected prior to landfall on
Sunday, Henri is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when
it reaches the coasts of Long Island and southern New England.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA and Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point,
NY...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach,
NY...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft
Sagamore Beach, MA to Merrimack River including Massachusetts
Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area late tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New
York, and northern New Jersey Sunday into Monday, with isolated
maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result
in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with
the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river
flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New
England.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today
and Sunday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 211440
TCMAT3

HURRICANE HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021
1500 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NEW ENGLAND HAS BEEN
EXTENDED EASTWARD TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS HAS BEEN
EXTENDED EASTWARD TO CHATHAM...INCLUDING NANTUCKET.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MASTIC BEACH TO MONTAUK POINT NEW
YORK
* NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MONTAUK POINT TO FLUSHING NEW YORK
* FLUSHING NEW YORK TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS
* NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MASTIC NEW YORK
* NORTH OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS
* CAPE COD BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT
* NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO MONTAUK
POINT
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS
* BLOCK ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO WEST OF NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT
* SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO EAST
ROCKAWAY INLET
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET
* COASTAL NEW YORK AND NEW JERSEY WEST OF EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO
MANASQUAN INLET...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF HENRI.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 72.5W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 110SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 90SW 160NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 72.5W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 72.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 36.9N 71.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 39.7N 71.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.3N 72.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 120SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 42.4N 72.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 43.1N 71.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 43.8N 69.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 72.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 211148
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING HENRI...
...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING
RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 72.7W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 525 MI...850 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New
York
* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Westport Massachusetts
* Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Woods Hole Massachusetts including
Block Island and Martha's Vineyard.
* Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to
Manasquan Inlet, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Henri.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 72.7 West. Henri is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward
to north-northeastward motion is expected today, with a turn toward
the north-northwest expected by tonight. On the forecast track,
Henri is expected to make landfall in Long Island or southern
New England on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast through tonight, and Henri is
expected to become a hurricane later today and be at or near
hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long Island or southern
New England.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point,
NY...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach,
NY...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
hurricane watch area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical
conditions expected by late tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area late tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New
York, and northern New Jersey Sunday into Monday, with isolated
maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result
in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with
the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river
flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New
England.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today
and Sunday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 210853
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

An earlier GMI satellite microwave image continued to indicate that
Henri's low-level center was still located near the northwestern
edge of the convective canopy. However, more recent geostationary
satellite imagery shows that the convection is beginning to wrap
around the northeastern and eastern portions of the circulation
suggesting that the anticipated decrease in shear is occuring, and
that Henri may be on the verge of strengthening. The latest
subjective satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB remained
unchanged so the initial intensity remains 60 kt, in agreement with
those estimates and the earlier aircraft data. The next
reconnaissance aircraft mission should be in the storm around
1200 UTC this morning.

Henri is moving north-northeastward or 015/10 kt. A mid- to
upper-level low and associated trough over the Appalachians and
Ohio Valley should steer Henri north-northeastward at a faster
forward speed today. As Henri moves around the eastern portion of
the upper-low, the storm is forecast to turn north-northwestward
tonight. This motion will bring the center of Henri near or over
portions of Long Island and Southern New England on Sunday and into
the northeastern United States Sunday night. After that time, the
cyclone should turn east-northeastward as it becomes caught in the
mid-latitude westerlies. The latest dynamical model envelope
continues to narrow for the first 24 to 36 hours of the forecast
period and only small adjustments were needed to that portion of
the track. After that time, the guidance has trended to taking
Henri farther inland over the Northeastern United States, and the
NHC forecast as been modified accordingly.

Decreasing shear, upper-level divergence associated with the trough
to Henri's west, and warm SSTs should allow the cyclone to
strengthen during the next 12-18 hours. Although not explicitly
shown in the intensity forecast, Henri could still peak around 75 kt
later today or this evening. After that time, cooler waters are
likely to cause a gradual reduction in intensity, however, Henri is
forecast to be at or near hurricane strength at landfall. Once the
center moves inland over the Northeast United States, a faster rate
of filling is anticipated. The system is forecast to become
post-tropical in about 60 hours, and it will likely dissipate around
day 4, if not a little sooner. The updated intensity forecast is
near the upper-end of the intensity guidance during the first 12-24
hours, and is close to the Decay-SHIPS model thereafter.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast of the
center of Henri since impacts will extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin late
tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut,
Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge
Warning has been issued. Dangerous storm surge is possible
beginning late tonight or Sunday in western portions of Long
Island and Connecticut in the Storm Surge Watch area. Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late tonight or
Sunday in portions of Long Island and Connecticut, where a
Hurricane Warning has been issued. Hurricane conditions are
possible late tonight or Sunday across portions of Rhode Island.

3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and
isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of Long Island, New
England, southeast New York and northern New Jersey.

4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast
of the U.S. through the weekend. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 33.1N 73.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 35.6N 72.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 38.8N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 40.9N 72.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 23/0600Z 42.1N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 23/1800Z 42.8N 73.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 24/0600Z 43.3N 71.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 25/0600Z 44.5N 62.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 210853
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...HENRI EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...
...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND
FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 73.2W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch east of Westport, Massachusetts has been
discontinued, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New
York
* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Westport Massachusetts
* Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Woods Hole Massachusetts including
Block Island and Martha's Vineyard.
* Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to
Manasquan Inlet, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the
progress of Henri.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 73.2 West. Henri is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
northward to north-northeastward motion is expected today, with a
turn toward the north-northwest expected late today or tonight. On
the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in Long
Island or southern New England on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and
Henri is expected to become a hurricane today and be at or near
hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long Island or
southern New England.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point,
NY...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach,
NY...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
hurricane watch area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical
conditions possible by late tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area late tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New
York, and northern New Jersey Sunday into Monday, with isolated
maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result
in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with
the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river
flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New
England.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today
and Sunday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 210853
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021
0900 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH EAST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MASTIC BEACH TO MONTAUK POINT NEW
YORK
* NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MONTAUK POINT TO FLUSHING NEW YORK
* FLUSHING NEW YORK TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS
* NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MASTIC NEW YORK
* NORTH OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS
* CAPE COD BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT
* NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO MONTAUK
POINT
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS
* BLOCK ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO WEST OF NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT
* SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO EAST
ROCKAWAY INLET
* WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD.
* COASTAL NEW YORK AND NEW JERSEY WEST OF EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO
MANASQUAN INLET...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF HENRI.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 73.2W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 73.2W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 73.4W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 35.6N 72.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 38.8N 72.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 90SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 40.9N 72.7W...INLAND OVER LONG ISLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.1N 73.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 80SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 42.8N 73.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 43.3N 71.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 44.5N 62.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 73.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 210552
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...HENRI EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 73.4W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New
York
* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Woods Hole Massachusetts including
Block Island and Martha's Vineyard.
* Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to
Manasquan Inlet, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Henri. Additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 73.4 West. Henri is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northward to
north-northeastward motion is expected today, with a turn toward
the north-northwest expected late today or tonight. On the
forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in Long
Island or southern New England late Saturday night or on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with
higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours, and Henri is expected to become a hurricane today and be at
or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long Island or
southern New England.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point,
NY...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach,
NY...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
hurricane watch area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical
conditions possible by late tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area late tonight and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over Long Island and New England Sunday into Monday, with
isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri
may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate
river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today
and Sunday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 210300
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

Satellite imagery shows that Henri is becoming better organized
this evening, with the low-level center becoming more embedded in
the convective overcast and an increase in convective banding.
There has also been an increase in the anticyclonic outflow.
However, reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft show that this has not yet resulted in strengthening, as
the maximum winds remain about 60 kt to the southeast of the
elongated center and the central pressure is in the 994-996 mb
range.

Henri has turned northward, and the initial motion is now 010/8.
A deep-layer mid-latitude trough over the Appalachians and the Ohio
Valley will cut off into a closed low during the next 12-24 h,
while a ridge builds northward to the east and northeast of Henri.
This evolution should cause the storm to move north-northeastward
for 12-24 h, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest from
24-48 h. This motion should bring the center of Henri over the
mid-Atlantic states or southern New England between 36-48 h. After
48 h, the cyclone should get caught up in the southern edge of the
westerlies and turn generally eastward across southern New England
and the Gulf of Maine. There has been little change in the
direction of the forecast guidance since the last advisory, but the
guidance is faster on this cycle through 48 h. Thus, the new track
forecast, which lies close to the consensus models, is faster than
the previous forecast through the 48 h point.

A combination of decreasing shear, improved organization, and
upper-level divergence associated with the trough to the west
should allow Henri to strengthen for the next 24 h or so, and the
new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 75 kt. After
24 h, the center should move over cooler water, and weakening
should start before landfall in the northeastern United States.
However, the cyclone is still expected to be at or near hurricane
intensity at landfall. After landfall, Henri should weaken quickly
and become post-tropical by the 72 h time. Dissipation is forecast
between 96-120 h. The new intensity forecast follows the overall
trend of the intensity guidance.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast of the
center of Henri since impacts will extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin late
Saturday night or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut,
Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge
Warning has been issued. Dangerous storm surge is possible
beginning late Saturday night or Sunday in western portions of Long
Island and Connecticut in the Storm Surge Watch area. Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late Saturday night
or Sunday in portions of Long Island and Connecticut, where a
Hurricane Warning has been issued. Hurricane conditions are
possible late Saturday night or Sunday across portions of Rhode
Island and southeastern Massachusetts.

3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and
isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of Long Island and
New England Sunday into Monday.

4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast
of the U.S. through the weekend. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 32.3N 73.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 34.3N 72.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 37.7N 72.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 40.2N 72.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 41.4N 73.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 23/1200Z 42.2N 73.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/0000Z 42.7N 72.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 25/0000Z 43.5N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 210259
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...HENRI CONTINUING NORTHWARD WHILE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 73.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Warning between
Greenwich, CT to Flushing, NY and Flushing to Oyster Bay, NY.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from Watch Hill, Rhode
Island, east to Woods Hole, Massachusetts, including Block Island
and Martha's Vineyard. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in
effect west of East Rockaway Inlet, New York, to Manasquan Inlet,
New Jersey, including New York City.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New
York
* North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York
* Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Woods Hole Massachusetts including
Block Island and Martha's Vineyard.
* Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to
Manasquan Inlet, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Henri. Additional watches or
warnings may be required on Saturday Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 73.5 West. Henri is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northward to
north-northeastward motion is expected through Saturday, with a
turn toward the north-northwest expected late Saturday or Saturday
night. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall
in Long Island or southern New England late Saturday night or on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Henri is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday
and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long
Island or southern New England.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve and
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY
including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft
South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point,
NY...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach,
NY...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area late Saturday night or on Sunday, with tropical storm
conditions expected by Saturday night. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the hurricane watch area late Saturday night or on
Sunday, with tropical conditions possible by late Saturday night.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area late Saturday night and Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches over Long Island and New England Sunday into Monday, with
isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri
may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate
river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada tonight and
into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 210259
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021
0300 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING BETWEEN
GREENWICH CT TO FLUSHING NY AND FLUSHING TO OYSTER BAY NY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE
ISLAND EAST TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING BLOCK
ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN
EFFECT WEST OF EAST ROCKAWAY INLET NEW YORK TO MANASQUAN INLET NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MASTIC BEACH TO MONTAUK POINT NEW
YORK
* NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MONTAUK POINT TO FLUSHING NEW YORK
* FLUSHING NEW YORK TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS
* NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MASTIC NEW YORK
* NORTH OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS
* CAPE COD BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT
* NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO MONTAUK
POINT
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS
* NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO WEST OF NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT
* SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO EAST
ROCKAWAY INLET
* WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD.
* COASTAL NEW YORK AND NEW JERSEY WEST OF EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO
MANASQUAN INLET...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON SATURDAY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 73.5W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 73.5W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 73.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 34.3N 72.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.7N 72.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 100SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 40.2N 72.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.4N 73.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 42.2N 73.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 80SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 42.7N 72.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 43.5N 67.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 73.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 202346
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...HENRI TURNS NORTHWARD...
...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE STORM...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 73.8W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Oyster Bay to Montauk Point
* Greenwich Connecticut to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from west of Mastic Beach to East
Rockaway Inlet
* North shore of Long Island from west of Oyster Bay to Flushing
* Flushing New York to west of Greenwich Connecticut
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Manasquan Inlet New Jersey to west of East Rockaway Inlet New
York, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Henri. Additional watches or
warnings will likely be required later tonight or Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 73.8 West. Henri is
now moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued
forward motion at a faster forward speed is expected through early
Sunday. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall
in Long Island or southern New England on Sunday.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or
so, and Henri is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday
and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long
Island or southern New England.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Watch Hill, RI to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay,
Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...2-4 ft
North shore of Long Island...2-4 ft
Flushing, NY to Watch Hill, RI...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by early
Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch
area on Sunday, with tropical conditions possible by early Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area and possible in the tropical storm watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over
Long Island and New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated
maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri could
result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate
river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada tonight and
into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 202042
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

Henri appears to be slowly gaining strength. Deep convection has
been increasing during the past few hours and the upper-level
outflow continues to become better established on the east side of
the circulation. However, the low-level center is still located
near the northwestern edge of the deep convection due to ongoing
northerly wind shear. An ASCAT-B pass from a few hours ago showed
peak winds of around 55 kt, with the strongest winds on the
southeast side of the circulation. Based on this data, the initial
intensity is set at 60 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate Henri again this evening and
the data the plane collects will be very helpful in estimating the
storm's strength and structure.

The tropical storm appears to be making the advertised turn to the
right, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 335/6 kt. A
trough over the central Appalachians is expected to cut off tonight,
and the combination of that feature and a building ridge to the
east/northeast of Henri should cause the storm to accelerate to the
north on Saturday. The latest model runs have generally trended to
the left again and are a bit faster, with most showing landfall in
about 48 hours. Most of the models now show a slight left turn
before landfall as Henri gets caught in the circulation of the
aforementioned trough. The latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble members
continue to span a region from near New York City to Cape Cod for
the landfall point. Based on the latest consensus aids, the
official track forecast has again been nudged to the west of the
previous one and shows landfall occurring on Sunday. After day 3,
Henri is forecast to eject northeastward.

The ongoing northerly shear is expected to decrease tonight, and
the global models show a favorable upper-level wind pattern
developing over the storm through the weekend. These more
conducive atmospheric conditions combined with the warm Gulf
Stream waters should allow Henri to strengthen to a hurricane
tonight or early Saturday, with additional intensification expected
into Saturday night. By early Sunday, however, Henri is forecast to
cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream, and that should end its
opportunity for strengthening. Although steady to rapid weakening is
forecast while Henri moves over cooler waters south of Long
Island and New England, it will likely still be at or very near
hurricane intensity when it reaches the coast. Post-tropical
transition is forecast to occur by day 3 and the system should
dissipate in 4 or 5 days.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast of the
center of Henri since impacts will extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin Sunday in
portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and
southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been
issued. Dangerous storm surge is possible beginning Sunday in
western portions of Long Island and Connecticut in the Storm Surge
Watch area. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given
by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin Sunday in portions
of Long Island and Connecticut, where a Hurricane Warning has been
issued. Hurricane conditions are possible Sunday across portions
of Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts.

3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small
stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and
isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of Long Island and
New England Sunday into Monday.

4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast
of the U.S. through the weekend. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 31.2N 73.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 32.8N 73.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 35.8N 72.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 38.9N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 40.8N 72.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 42.0N 72.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 23/1800Z 42.9N 72.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 24/1800Z 43.8N 68.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 202041
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...HENRI ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 73.9W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 695 MI...1115 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the south shore of Long
Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, the north shore of
Long Island from Oyster Bay to Montauk Point, from Greenwich,
Connecticut to Chatham, Massachusetts, including Nantucket,
Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the south shore of Long Island
from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point, for the north shore of Long
Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point, and from New
Haven, Connecticut, to west of Watch Hill, Rhode Island.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from west of Port Jefferson
Harbor to west of New Haven, Connecticut, and for the south shore
of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway
Inlet.

A Tropical Storm Watch in effect from Manasquan Inlet, New Jersey,
to west of East Rockaway Inlet, New York, including New York City.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Oyster Bay to Montauk Point
* Greenwich Connecticut to Chatham Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from west of Mastic Beach to East
Rockaway Inlet
* North shore of Long Island from west of Oyster Bay to Flushing
* Flushing New York to west of Greenwich Connecticut
* North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Cape Cod Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point
* North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
Point
* New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut
* South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East
Rockaway Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Manasquan Inlet New Jersey to west of East Rockaway Inlet New
York, including New York City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Henri. Additional watches or
warnings will likely be required later tonight or Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 73.9 West. Henri is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected by tonight, and Henri is forecast to
accelerate in that direction through early Sunday. On the forecast
track, Henri is expected to make landfall in Long Island or
southern New England on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so,
and Henri is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday and
be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long
Island or southern New England.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Watch Hill, RI to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay,
Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft
Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft
East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...2-4 ft
North shore of Long Island...2-4 ft
Flushing, NY to Watch Hill, RI...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by early
Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch
area on Sunday, with tropical conditions possible by early Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area and possible in the tropical storm watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over
Long Island and New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated
maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri could
result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding,
along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate
river flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada tonight and
into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 202040
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021
2100 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND FROM MASTIC BEACH TO MONTAUK POINT...THE NORTH SHORE OF
LONG ISLAND FROM OYSTER BAY TO MONTAUK POINT...FROM GREENWICH
CONNECTICUT TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NANTUCKET...
MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND
FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT...FOR THE NORTH SHORE OF
LONG ISLAND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO MONTAUK POINT...AND FROM
NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...TO WEST OF WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON
HARBOR TO WEST OF NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...AND FOR THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LONG ISLAND FROM WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO EAST ROCKAWAY
INLET.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MANASQUAN INLET NEW JERSEY TO
WEST OF EAST ROCKAWAY INLET NEW YORK...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MASTIC BEACH TO MONTAUK POINT
* NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM OYSTER BAY TO MONTAUK POINT
* GREENWICH CONNECTICUT TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS
* NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM WEST OF MASTIC BEACH TO EAST
ROCKAWAY INLET
* NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM WEST OF OYSTER BAY TO FLUSHING
* FLUSHING NEW YORK TO WEST OF GREENWICH CONNECTICUT
* NORTH OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS
* CAPE COD BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT
* NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO MONTAUK
POINT
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS
* NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO WEST OF NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT
* SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO EAST
ROCKAWAY INLET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANASQUAN INLET NEW JERSEY TO WEST OF EAST ROCKAWAY INLET NEW
YORK...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 73.9W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 73.9W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 73.8W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 32.8N 73.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 35.8N 72.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 100SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 38.9N 71.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 40.8N 72.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.0N 72.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 42.9N 72.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 43.8N 68.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 73.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 201744
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...HENRI ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 73.8W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South Shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Montauk
* North Shore of Long Island from Kings Point to Montauk
* Flushing New York to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South Shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk
* North Shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
* New Haven Connecticut to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet New York
* West of Port Jefferson Harbor New York
* West of New Haven Connecticut

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Henri. Additional watches or
warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 73.8 West. Henri is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected by tonight, and Henri is forecast to
accelerate in that direction through early Sunday. On the forecast
track, Henri is expected to make landfall in southern New England by
late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Henri is expected to become a hurricane
by Saturday and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes
landfall in southern New England.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Watch Hill, RI to Sagamore Beach, MA including Narragansett Bay,
Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, Nantucket Sound, and Cape Cod
Bay...3-5 ft
East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...2-4 ft
North shore of Long Island...2-4 ft
Flushing, NY to Watch Hill, RI...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical
storm watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches over
eastern Long Island and southern New England Sunday into Monday,
with isolated maximum totals near 8 inches. Heavy rainfall from
Henri will result in flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along
with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river
flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and
into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 201445
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters investigated Henri this
morning and based on the flight-level, SFMR, and dropsonde data, the
initial intensity is still around 55 kt. The minimum pressure has
also been relatively steady. The low-level center of Henri is
located close to the northwestern edge of the main area of deep
convection, and the vortex is still not vertically aligned due to
20-25 kt of northerly vertical wind shear. Although the intensity
of Henri has not changed much during the past couple of days,
satellite images show an improving cloud pattern with well-
established outflow in the eastern semicircle, which could indicate
that Henri is poised to strengthen.

There is some uncertainty in the exact position of Henri given the
recent aircraft fixes and the tilt of the vortex, but the initial
motion appears to be northwestward at 6 kt. A trough over the
central Appalachians is expected to cut off tonight, and the
combination of that feature and a building ridge to the
east/northeast of Henri should cause the storm to turn northward
tonight and accelerate in that direction on Saturday. Some of the
models show a slight bend to the west around the time Henri is
forecast to make landfall on Sunday, and there remains a fair amount
spread in the guidance in where the center of Henri will come
ashore. The latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble members span a region
from near New York City to Cape Cod for the landfall point. Based
on the latest consensus aids and initial position, the official
track forecast is nudged to the west of the previous one and shows
landfall occurring by late Sunday. After day 3, Henri is forecast
to eject northeastward across the Gulf of Maine.

The ongoing northerly shear is expected to decrease later today, and
the global models show a favorable upper-level wind pattern
developing over the storm later today through the weekend. These
more conducive atmospheric conditions combined with the warm Gulf
Stream waters should allow Henri to strengthen to a hurricane
tonight or early Saturday with additional intensification expected
into Saturday night. By early Sunday, however, Henri is forecast to
cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream, and that should end its
opportunity for strengthening. Although steady to rapid weakening is
forecast while Henri moves over cooler waters south of New England,
it will likely still be at or very near hurricane intensity when it
reaches the coast. Post-tropical transition is forecast to occur in
3 to 4 days, and the new forecast shows Henri dissipated by day 5,
in agreement with most of the global models.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast of the
center of Henri since impacts will extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation and hurricane conditions are
possible beginning Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut,
Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge
Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Residents in these areas
should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated
moderate river flooding, over portions of southern New England
Sunday into Monday.

3. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of
the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue
through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 30.4N 73.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 31.5N 73.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 34.1N 72.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 37.3N 71.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 39.8N 71.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 41.4N 71.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 23/1200Z 42.4N 71.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 24/1200Z 43.7N 69.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 201444
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND HENRI STEADY IN STRENGTH...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 73.7W
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended slightly westward to
Flushing, New York, including adjacent areas of western Long Island
Sound and the East River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South Shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Montauk
* North Shore of Long Island from Kings Point to Montauk
* Flushing New York to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South Shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk
* North Shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
* New Haven Connecticut to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet New York
* West of Port Jefferson Harbor New York
* West of New Haven Connecticut

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Henri. Additional watches or
warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 73.7 West. Henri is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected by tonight, and Henri is forecast to accelerate in
that direction through early Sunday. On the forecast track, Henri
is expected to make landfall in southern New England by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Henri is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday and be at
or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in southern New
England.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Watch Hill, RI to Sagamore Beach, MA including Narragansett Bay,
Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, Nantucket Sound, and Cape Cod
Bay...3-5 ft
East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...2-4 ft
North shore of Long Island...2-4 ft
Flushing, NY to Watch Hill, RI...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical
storm watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches over
eastern Long Island and southern New England Sunday into Monday,
with isolated maximum totals near 8 inches. Heavy rainfall from
Henri will result in flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along
with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river
flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and
into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 201444
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021
1500 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TO
FLUSHING NEW YORK...INCLUDING ADJACENT AREAS OF WESTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND AND THE EAST RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MONTAUK
* NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM KINGS POINT TO MONTAUK
* FLUSHING NEW YORK TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS
* NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK
* NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO MONTAUK
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS
* NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO EAST ROCKAWAY INLET NEW YORK
* WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR NEW YORK
* WEST OF NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 73.7W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 73.7W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 73.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 31.5N 73.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 34.1N 72.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.3N 71.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 95SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 39.8N 71.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.4N 71.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 42.4N 71.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 43.7N 69.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N 73.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 20/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 201158
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING HENRI...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 73.7W
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South Shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Montauk
* North Shore of Long Island from Kings Point to Montauk
* Kings Point New York to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South Shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk
* North Shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
* New Haven Connecticut to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet New York
* West of Port Jefferson Harbor New York
* West of New Haven Connecticut

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Henri. Additional watches or
warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 73.7 West. Henri is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is forecast later today, followed by a turn
toward the north tonight. Henri is forecast to accelerate toward
the north through early next week and approach the coast of southern
New England on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Henri is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Watch Hill, RI to Sagamore Beach, MA including Narragansett Bay,
Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, Nantucket Sound, and Cape Cod
Bay....3-5 ft
East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...2-4 ft
North shore of Long Island...2-4 ft
Kings Point, NY to Watch Hill, RI...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical
storm watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches over
southern New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum
totals near 8 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in areas
of flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and
into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 200900
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...HENRI EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SATURDAY...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 73.1W
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the south shore of Long
Island from East Rockaway Inlet eastward to Montauk, the north
shore of Long Island from Kings Point eastward to Montauk, and from
Kings Point eastward to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, including
Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Long Island from Fire Island
Inlet eastward and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward. A
Hurricane Watch has also been issued from New Haven, Connecticut,
eastward to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, including Nantucket,
Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued west of Fire Island Inlet to
East Rockaway Inlet, west of Port Jefferson Harbor, and west of New
Haven.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South Shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Montauk
* North Shore of Long Island from Kings Point to Montauk
* Kings Point New York to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South Shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk
* North Shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk
* New Haven Connecticut to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts
* Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet New York
* West of Port Jefferson Harbor New York
* West of New Haven Connecticut

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Henri. Additional watches or
warnings will likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 73.1 West. Henri is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is forecast later today, followed by a turn
toward the north tonight. Henri is forecast to accelerate toward
the north through early next week and approach the coast of
southern New England on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Henri is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Watch Hill, RI to Sagamore Beach, MA including Narragansett Bay,
Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, Nantucket Sound, and Cape Cod
Bay....3-5 ft
East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...2-4 ft
North shore of Long Island...2-4 ft
Kings Point, NY to Watch Hill, RI...2-4 ft
Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical
storm watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches over
southern New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum
totals near 8 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in areas
of flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and
into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 200859
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

Henri's low-level center has been peaking out from under the north
side of the deep convective mass, resulting from continued 20-25 kt
of northerly shear. Maximum winds are still estimated to be 55 kt
based on T3.5 Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Henri still has a motion toward the west-northwest, or 300/8 kt,
but it is about ready to make the sharp right turn that we've been
expecting. A shortwave trough currently over the central
Appalachians is forecast to close off by Saturday, with Henri
accelerating northward on the east side of this feature through the
weekend. Some global models show Henri merging with the
mid-/upper-level low as the cyclone approaches southern New
England, which induces a slight bend of Henri's forecast track to
the left. Nearly all track models now show Henri's center reaching
the coast of southern New England, and the new NHC track forecast
has been nudged westward in the direction of HCCA and the other
consensus aids. After day 3, Henri is forecast to eject
northeastward across the Gulf of Maine toward Atlantic Canada.

The strong shear affecting Henri is forecast to begin weakening
later today, and SHIPS diagnostics indicate that it could drop to
less than 10 kt in about 36 hours. In addition, Henri will be
traversing very warm waters for the next 48 hours before it crosses
the north wall of the Gulf Stream. Therefore, strengthening is
anticipated for the next 2 days, with Henri likely to become a
hurricane by Saturday. After 48 hours, Henri's expected slower
motion over the colder water south of New England should induce
quick weakening, but it may not be quick enough to keep Henri from
reaching the coast as a hurricane. Faster weakening is anticipated
after Henri's center moves over land, and simulated satellite
imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that deep convection
could dissipate by day 4, making Henri a post-tropical low at that
time. Global models suggest that Henri may dissipate by day 5, but
for the time being a day 5 point is being kept for continuity.

Based on the new forecast, tropical-storm-force wind radii will be
approaching the coast of southern New England in about 48 hours.
Given the still-present uncertainties in Henri's future track and
intensity and the hazards that the storm may cause, storm surge and
hurricane watches are now being issued for portions of Long Island,
Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts. Users
are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast points as impacts
will extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Henri is forecast to be near the northeast coast of the U.S.
on Sunday and Monday, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain
impacts in portions of southern New England and eastern Long Island
are increasing. Hurricane and storm surge watches are now in
effect for portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and
southeastern Massachusetts. Additional watches or warnings may be
required later today.

2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of
the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue
through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip currents.

3. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding over portions of southern New England Sunday into Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 30.2N 73.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 33.0N 72.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 36.1N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 39.1N 71.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 41.1N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 42.2N 71.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 24/0600Z 43.5N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 25/0600Z 45.3N 63.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 200857
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021
0900 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET EASTWARD TO MONTAUK...THE NORTH
SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM KINGS POINT EASTWARD TO MONTAUK...AND
FROM KINGS POINT EASTWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH...MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND
INLET EASTWARD AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD. A
HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT...
EASTWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH...MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NANTUCKET...
MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO
EAST ROCKAWAY INLET...WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR...AND WEST OF
NEW HAVEN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MONTAUK
* NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM KINGS POINT TO MONTAUK
* KINGS POINT NEW YORK TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS
* NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK
* NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO MONTAUK
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS
* NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO EAST ROCKAWAY INLET NEW YORK
* WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR NEW YORK
* WEST OF NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 73.1W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 73.1W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 72.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 33.0N 72.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 36.1N 71.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 100SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.1N 71.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 41.1N 71.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.2N 71.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 43.5N 70.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 45.3N 63.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 73.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 20/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 200259
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

The satellite presentation on Henri this evening continues to
exhibit a persistent bursting pattern, with the center estimated to
be just to the north and west of the coldest cloud tops which
occasionally have been below -80 C in the overshooting tops. This
current satellite presentation is primarily due to continued
moderate to strong northerly vertical wind shear, which is forcing
the convection underneath the cirrus canopy down-shear of the
low-level center, as seen on a 2230 UTC SSMIS microwave pass. While
the mid-level vortex with the convection also remains tilted
down-shear of the low-level center, it has not completely separated
due to the persistent convection, preventing the low-level center
from escaping poleward in more shallow low-level steering.
Tonight's subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB/TAFB are in
agreement with T3.5/55 kt and given that this value is near what
the earlier Air Force Reconnaissance mission found, the latest
intensity is being maintained at 55 kt for this advisory.

There is a bit of uncertainty determining if Henri has begun a more
poleward motion since the center remains under the convective cirrus
plume, but my best guess is now 285/9 kt. Over the next 12-24 hours,
the mid- to upper-level ridging that has dominated the synoptic
steering pattern for Henri the last few days will quickly break
down, as a shortwave trough drops in from the Great Lakes into the
Mid-Atlantic and cuts off. This feature is now forecast to continue
digging in to the west of Henri. To the east, a new mid-level ridge
is also forecast to build in to the right of Henri. This synoptic
pattern should draw the cyclone poleward with an acceleration to the
north-northeast in the 24-48 h period. Afterwards, the
aforementioned trough takes on a negative tilt to the southwest of
Henri, helping to reorient the mid- to upper-level flow out of the
south-southeast, and this flow could result in a slight leftward
bend in the track between 48-72 h. The majority of guidance this
cycle now is forecasting the mid-level ridge east of Henri to build
poleward with the storm, blocking an easy path for the storm to stay
on a more northeast heading out to sea. Consequently, the latest NHC
forecast track now explicitly shows landfall in southeast
Massachusetts at 72 h. The track guidance this cycle has come into
better agreement, though there remain some leftward (UKMET) and
rightward (ECMWF) outliers. The latest forecast track lies very
close to the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) guidance,
which is also very near the latest GFS forecast track.

Data from the NOAA G-IV synoptic mission around Henri shows that
just north of the tropical cyclone there remains some very dry
mid-latitude air, which is being advected into the storm by 20-25
kt of northerly vertical wind shear. Over the next 24-36 hours,
this shear is forecast to gradual subside, as Henri moves near the
center of an upper-level ridge axis. By 36-48 hours, the vertical
wind shear is forecast to be under 10-kt by both the GFS- and
ECWMF-based SHIPS guidance, while the storm is also traversing
28-29 C sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). Thus, the latest NHC
intensity forecast still calls for strengthening beginning after 12
hours, and the rate of strengthening could be a bit quicker as the
storm moves over the warm gulf stream waters between 36-48 hours.
Thereafter, Henri will cross a very sharp SST gradient with
sea-surface temperatures down below 23 C near the New England coast
to the east of Long Island. Henri is forecast to begin weakening
after 48 hours, but the storm could still be near hurricane
intensity by the time Henri is forecast to be near the Northeast
coastline. Transition to a post-tropical storm is expected to begin
shortly thereafter which should be sometime in the 96-h to 120-h
points as deep convection ceases over the storm over cold SSTs

As noted previously, the wind field of Henri is expected to expand,
especially as it interacts with a mid-latitude trough located to its
west. Therefore, users are reminded to not focus on the exact
forecast points as impacts will extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Henri is forecast to be near the northeast coast of the U.S.
on Sunday and Monday, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain
impacts in portions of southern New England and eastern Long Island
are increasing. Watches will likely be required for portions of
this area early Friday.

2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of
the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue
through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip currents.

3. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding over portions of southeastern New England Sunday into
Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 29.8N 72.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 30.3N 73.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 31.8N 73.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 34.4N 72.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 37.6N 71.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 40.1N 70.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 41.7N 70.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
96H 24/0000Z 42.5N 70.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 25/0000Z 43.7N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 200255
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...HENRI HOLDING ON AGAINST SHEAR AND MAINTAINING 65-MPH WINDS...
...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 72.3W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should
monitor the progress of Henri. Watches will likely be required for
a portion of this area early Friday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 72.3 West. Henri is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A sharp turn
to the northwest and north is anticipated on Friday, followed by an
acceleration to the north and north-northeast on Saturday and
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Henri will remain well
offshore of the east coast of the United States over the next couple
of days, but it is forecast to be near or over southern New England
on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next 12
hours, but Henri is forecast to intensify into a hurricane by Friday
night with additional strengthening expected this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches over
southeastern New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum
totals near 8 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in areas
of flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada on Friday and
into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 200253
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021
0300 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
A PORTION OF THIS AREA EARLY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 72.3W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 72.3W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 72.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 30.3N 73.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 31.8N 73.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 110SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 34.4N 72.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 100SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.6N 71.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 40.1N 70.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.7N 70.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 42.5N 70.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 43.7N 65.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 72.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 192039
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated Henri earlier this
afternoon and found maximum flight-level winds and SFMR values to
support an intensity of about 55 kt and a minimum pressure of 997
mb. The storm's appearance in satellite images has been generally
steady throughout the day with the low-level center located on the
northern side of the convective mass, and banding features confined
to the south side of the circulation. This somewhat asymmetric
cloud pattern is due to about 25 kt of north-northeasterly shear.

The tropical storm is now moving due westward at 9 kt. A mid-level
ridge should keep Henri on a westward to west-northwestward track
through tonight. On Friday, however, a trough is expected to cut
off over the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic region of the U.S. while a
ridge amplifies to the east of Henri over the western Atlantic. A
combination of these features should cause Henri to turn northward
on Friday and accelerate in that direction over the weekend. The
exact location of the northward turn will be very critical in
determining Henri's future track and how close it gets to New
England. The latest GFS run has shifted eastward and the UKMET and
ECMWF have shifted westward. Consequently, the net result is very
little change in the consensus models and the new NHC track
forecast is just a little faster than the previous one. Based on
this forecast, Henri is expected to be very near southern New
England on Sunday and Monday. The NOAA Gulfstream IV jet will be
flying around Henri this evening to help assess the environmental
conditions and gather data for the numerical models. It is hoped
that these data will help the models more accurately predict the
future track of the storm.

Although Henri is a bit weaker now, the overall intensity forecast
philosophy has not changed. The shear is expected to persist for
another 12 to 24 hours, so little change in strength seems likely
during that time period. However, the global models show a more
conducive upper-level wind pattern over Henri shortly after that,
and in fact, all of the environmental conditions appear favorable
for strengthening on Friday and Saturday. Therefore, steady
intensification is expected during the 24-60 h time period, and
Henri is forecast to become a hurricane during that time. Henri is
expected to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream and move over
much cooler SSTs on Sunday, and that should end the opportunity for
strengthening and induce a steady weakening trend from days 3 to 5.
Post-tropical transition is now shown to occur by the end of the
forecast period when Henri is expected to be over SSTs below 20
deg C.

It should be noted that as Henri gains latitude and moves near
New England, the wind field is expected to expand. Therefore,
users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast points as
impacts will extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Henri is forecast to be near the northeast coast of the U.S.
on Sunday and Monday, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain
impacts in portions of southern New England and eastern Long Island
are increasing. Watches will likely be required for portions of
this area early Friday.

2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of
the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue
through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip currents.

3. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding over portions of southeastern New England Sunday into
Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 29.7N 71.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 30.1N 72.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 33.0N 72.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 36.0N 71.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 38.9N 70.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 40.8N 70.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 42.3N 69.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 43.6N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 192038
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...HENRI EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND...
...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 71.4W
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should
monitor the progress of Henri. Watches will likely be required for
a portion of this area early Friday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 71.4 West. Henri is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is
expected to through tonight. A turn toward the northwest
is forecast on Friday, followed by an acceleration toward the north
and north-northeast Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Henri will remain well offshore of the east coast of the
United States over the next couple of days, but it is forecast to be
near southern New England on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next 12
to 24 hours, but Henri is forecast to intensify into a hurricane by
Friday night with additional strengthening expected this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches over
southeastern New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum
totals near 8 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in areas
of flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada later this
week and this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 192038
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021
2100 UTC THU AUG 19 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
A PORTION OF THIS AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 71.4W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 71.4W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 71.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 30.1N 72.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 33.0N 72.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 36.0N 71.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 38.9N 70.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 40.8N 70.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 42.3N 69.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 43.6N 65.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N 71.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 191435
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

Henri is not as well organized as it was yesterday. Microwave
images show that the vortex is titled to the south with height due
to about 25 kt of north-northeasterly wind shear. The system is
still producing a fair amount of deep convection, however, and the
cloud pattern resembles a central dense overcast with banding
features limited to the south side of the circulation. The Dvorak
estimates continue to range from 55 kt to 65 kt, and therefore, the
initial intensity is again held at 60 kt. The Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Henri later today, and the
data the aircraft collects will be very helpful in assessing the
storm's structure and strength.

The tropical storm is moving just south of due west at 9 kt. Henri
is expected to move generally westward through tonight as the storm
remains on the south side of a mid-level ridge. On Friday, however,
a trough is expected to cut off over the Ohio Valley and
mid-Atlantic region of the U.S. while a ridge amplifies to the east
of Henri over the western Atlantic. A combination of these features
should cause Henri to turn northward on Friday and accelerate in
that direction over the weekend. By early next week, the ridge
is expected to weaken, which should cause Henri to turn more
toward the east. The models are in much better agreement than they
were yesterday and their solutions are clustering around southern
New England on Sunday and Monday. The NHC track forecast is just a
tad to the left of the previous one and lies near the typically
best-performing models, the various consensus aids. In addition
to the Air Force aircraft that flies through the storm, the NOAA
Gulfstream IV jet will also be flying around Henri later today to
help assess the environmental conditions and gather data for the
numerical models. It is hoped that these data will help the models
more accurately predict the future track of the storm.

The current north-northeasterly shear over Henri is forecast to
continue for about another day, and given the degraded structure of
the system it seems unlikely that the storm will strengthen during
that time period. However, the shear is expected to decrease on
Friday and it will remain quite low through the weekend.
Therefore, strengthening to a hurricane is expected during that
time period. Once Henri crosses the north wall of the Gulf Stream
in a few days, steady weakening is predicted. The NHC intensity
forecast is just an update of the previous one and lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope.

It should be noted that as Henri gains latitude and moves near
New England, the wind field is expected to expand. Therefore,
users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast points as
impacts will extend far from the center.

Key Messages:

1. Henri is forecast to be near the northeast coast of the U.S.
on Sunday and Monday, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain
impacts in portions of southern New England and eastern Long Island
are increasing. Watches will likely be required for portions of
this area on Friday.

2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of
the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue
through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 29.5N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 29.7N 71.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 30.4N 72.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 31.9N 72.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 34.4N 72.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 37.3N 70.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 39.6N 70.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 41.6N 69.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 42.3N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 191435
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...HENRI STILL MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 70.5W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should
monitor the progress of Henri.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 70.5 West. Henri is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest
is forecast on Friday, followed by an acceleration toward the north
and north-northeast Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Henri will remain well offshore of the east coast of the
United States over the next couple of days, but it is forecast to be
near southern New England on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but Henri is
forecast to intensify into a hurricane on Friday with additional
strengthening predicted to occur this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada later this
week and this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 191434
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021
1500 UTC THU AUG 19 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 70.5W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 70.5W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 70.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 29.7N 71.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 30.4N 72.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 31.9N 72.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 34.4N 72.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.3N 70.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 39.6N 70.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 41.6N 69.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 42.3N 67.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 70.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 190854
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 AM AST Thu Aug 19 2021

Compared to microwave images from earlier on Wednesday, GMI
microwave data from last evening revealed that Henri's structure
had deteriorated somewhat, with convection on the west side of the
mid-level eye having mostly dissipated. This degradation is likely
the result of strong deep-layer shear and dry air in the mid levels.
Satellite intensity estimates have either remained steady or
decreased a bit, and Henri's initial intensity is therefore held at
60 kt. This value is supported by two evening scatterometer passes,
which had peak winds of 52 kt and 57 kt.

The GMI and ASCAT data revealed that the center is slightly farther
south than previously estimated, and Henri has been moving south of
due west, or 260/8 kt. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough
moving across the Great Lakes toward the Ohio Valley, and global
models are in agreement that this trough will cut off over the
central Appalachians in about 48 hours. As a result, the ridge
currently steering Henri westward is expected to relocate over the
northern Gulf coast, with the cut-off low causing Henri to
accelerate northward between Bermuda and the east coast of the
United States by late Friday through Sunday. Then, mid-level
ridging over Quebec is likely to cause Henri to slow down
considerably in the vicinity of southeastern New England or the
adjacent offshore waters by Monday. The latest suite of
deterministic track models have much less spread compared to on
Wednesday, with fairly good agreement on the scenario described
above. However, both the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles continue to show
a wider assortment of solutions, with stronger storms tending to
move closer to the U.S. coast and weaker storms moving farther
offshore. With the tight clustering of the current guidance, the
trajectory of the new NHC track forecast was not changed much from
the previous iteration, although it is a little faster during the
time that Henri accelerates to the north. The biggest point here is
that it's still too soon to know exactly how close Henri's center
will get to the coast of New England.

The north-northeasterly shear affecting Henri is not expected to
abate for another 24-36 hours. Once the shear does decrease,
however, warm waters should foster strengthening, up until Sunday
when Henri is expected to move north of the Gulf Stream. An
increase in southerly shear and Henri's slow motion over the colder
waters off New England should then cause weakening on days 4 and 5.
The NHC intensity forecast is a little below the HCCA and IVCN
consensus aids, which are being influenced by the seemingly
over-aggressive HWRF and COAMPS-TC models, and this new forecast is
very similar to the previous prediction.


Key Messages:

1. Henri is forecast to be near the northeast coast of the U.S.
late this weekend and early next week, and the risks of storm
surge, wind, and rain impacts in portions of the northeastern U.S.
and Atlantic Canada remains a distinct possibility. Interests in
these areas should closely follow the progress of Henri and check
for updates to the forecast.

2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of
the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue
through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 29.5N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 29.5N 70.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 29.9N 72.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 33.0N 72.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 35.7N 71.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 38.2N 70.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 41.1N 69.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 42.0N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 190854
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 AM AST Thu Aug 19 2021

...HENRI FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
BY FRIDAY...
...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 69.5W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should
monitor the progress of Henri.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 69.5 West. Henri is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is forecast on Friday, followed by an acceleration toward
the north and north-northeast Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast
track, the center of Henri will remain well offshore the east coast
of the United States over the next couple of days but could
approach southeastern New England on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days,
and Henri is expected to become a hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada later this
week and this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 190854
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021
0900 UTC THU AUG 19 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 69.5W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 69.5W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 69.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 29.5N 70.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 29.9N 72.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 33.0N 72.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 35.7N 71.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 38.2N 70.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 41.1N 69.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 42.0N 67.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 69.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 190300
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 18 2021

Henri?--s appearance this evening is one of a tropical cyclone that is
battling vertical wind shear. The satellite structure has evolved
into a large convective plume with overshooting cold -70 to -75 C
cloud top temperatures near the center of the convective mass.
Underneath the cirrus, Henri?--s structure has remained steady-state,
with a SSMIS pass at 2243Z showing a ragged mid-level eye on the 91
GHz channel that remains displaced a bit southeast of the low-level
signature on 37 GHz. The latest satellite intensity estimates have a
large spread in values ranging from 55-kt up to 80-kt. I have
elected to maintain Henri?--s intensity at 60 kt for this advisory,
but there is a larger than normal uncertainty in this estimate.

The initial motion continues to be just south of due west at 265/8
kt. The short-term track guidance is in general agreement that Henri
will continue a general westward motion for the next day or so, as
the cyclone is caught to the south of a pronounced mid- to
upper-level ridge. However, the models disagree on how far westward
Henri is able to advance in the short-term, and these track
differences appear to be related to Henri's intensity and vertical
depth of the circulation. This track dependency is nicely
illustrated by the most recent ECMWF ensemble guidance, where
stronger members move further south and west in the short-term,
ending up on the left-side of the ensemble mean, while weaker
members move slower and more poleward. The deterministic guidance is
similar, with the weaker ECMWF and Canadian runs off to the
east/right while the stronger GFS and UKMET runs are further
left/west. These short-term track differences appear pivotal,
because the ridge over Henri is then expected to quickly erode as a
mid-latitude trough digs in over the Ohio Valley and becomes
negatively tilted over the Mid-Atlantic. The leftward track guidance
has Henri interacting with this trough leading to a track forecast
much closer to the northeastern US, while the rightward track
guidance is not captured by this feature, and stay further offshore
escaping out to sea. In general, the mean of the track guidance is
very similar, or just a shade to the right of the previous cycle. I
have elected to maintain a very similar track to the previous
advisory, splitting the difference between the previous forecast
just left, and the reliable HCCA consensus aid just right. As
mentioned previously, a NOAA Gulfstream IV aircraft has been
scheduled to investigate the synoptic environment of Henri tomorrow
and will hopefully provide more data ingested into the model
guidance to reduce the large track spread seen in the current cycle.

Henri is now under moderate northerly shear that is forecast to
increase to 25-30 knots over the next 24 hours. While this would
ordinarily weaken the tropical cyclone, the system also remains
under very warm 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures that are somewhat
above normal for this time of year. Due to these offsetting factors,
the latest NHC intensity forecast maintains Henri at 60-kt for the
next 24 hours. Afterwards, the shear is forecast to decrease as the
storm turns more poleward directly under the upper-level ridge axis.
This favorable synoptic pattern should allow Henri to intensify and
gradual intensification is shown up to a 80-kt peak in 72-h. The NHC
intensity forecast is more or less in the mean of the large guidance
spread, though it should be noted that the regional hurricane models
(HWRF, HMON, COAMPS-TC) have somewhat stronger peak intensities
later in the forecast period.

Key Messages:

1. The forecast track of Henri remains near the northeast coast of
the U.S. this weekend and early next week, and the risks of storm
surge, wind, and rain impacts in portions of the northeastern U.S.
and Atlantic Canada remains a distinct possibility. Interests in
these areas should closely follow the progress of Henri and check
for updates to the forecast.

2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of
the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue
through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 29.8N 68.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 29.8N 69.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 30.0N 71.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 30.7N 72.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 32.3N 72.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 34.4N 71.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 36.9N 70.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 40.4N 69.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 24/0000Z 41.8N 68.3W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 190300
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 18 2021

...HENRI MAINTAINING INTENSITY WITH 70 MPH WINDS...
...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 68.5W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should
monitor the progress of Henri.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 68.5 West. Henri is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue for the next day or so. A sharp turn to the
north is expected on Friday with a general northward motion
continuing into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change is strength is forecast during the next day or
so, but Henri is expected to become a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada later this
week and this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 190300
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021
0300 UTC THU AUG 19 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 68.5W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 68.5W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 68.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 29.8N 69.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 30.0N 71.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 30.7N 72.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 32.3N 72.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 34.4N 71.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 36.9N 70.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 100SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 40.4N 69.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 41.8N 68.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 68.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 182049
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 PM AST Wed Aug 18 2021

Henri appears a little better organized this afternoon. The storm
still has a central dense overcast pattern and there have been hints
of an eye evident in visible satellite images. Microwave images
continue to show a mid-level eye feature, but the storm does not
appear quite as well organized in the low-levels, and the vortex is
still titled southward with height. The latest Dvorak estimates
range from 55 to 67 kt, and based on that data the initial
intensity is nudged up to 60 kt, just below hurricane strength.

Henri is moving just south of due west at a slightly faster pace
now, 265/8 kt. The storm is expected to continue westward for
another 36 hours or so as it moves in the flow on the south side of
a mid-level ridge. A gradual turn to the north is forecast to begin
on Friday when a cutoff low forms over the Ohio Valley and the
northeastern U.S. This general northward motion should continue
through the weekend as another ridge builds to the east of Henri
over the northwestern Atlantic. The models continue their westward
shift, and the NHC track forecast has again been adjusted in that
direction and no longer shows a northeastward motion out to sea. In
particular, the westward adjustment at day 5 was a sizable 150
miles, and even with this shift the NHC forecast is still a little
to the east of some of the consensus aids. NOAA Gulfstream IV
missions and special weather balloon soundings have been scheduled,
and it is hoped that this additional data will help the models
handle the evolving steering pattern. Given the uncertainty in the
longer range track forecast, users should be prepared for additional
adjustments to the NHC track prediction in future forecast cycles.

The storm is currently in an environment of about 15-20 kt of
northerly wind shear according to the SHIPS model and analyses from
CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, which is the reason the vortex
is currently titled. The shear should persist for another day or
so, and little change in strength seems likely during that time
period. However, strengthening is expected on Friday and Saturday
as the shear decreases while the storm remains over the Gulf Stream.
Some weakening seems likely at days 4 and 5 when the storm is
expected to be over cooler waters. The NHC intensity forecast lies
roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope and only minor
changes were made to the previous prediction.

Key Messages:

1. The forecast track of Henri has shifted toward the northeast
coast of the U.S. this weekend and early next week, increasing the
risk of direct storm surge, wind, and rain impacts in portions of
the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada during that time.
Interests in these areas should closely follow the progress of
Henri and check for updates to the forecast.

2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of
the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue
through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 29.9N 67.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 29.8N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 29.8N 70.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 30.1N 72.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 21/0600Z 32.7N 72.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 35.2N 71.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 39.3N 70.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 41.4N 69.8W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 182047
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 PM AST Wed Aug 18 2021

...HENRI ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 67.6W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should
monitor the progress of Henri.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 67.6 West. Henri is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue for another day or so. A turn to the north is
expected on Friday with that motion continuing into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the
next day or so, but Henri is expected to become a hurricane on
Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada later this
week and this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 182046
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021
2100 UTC WED AUG 18 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 67.6W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 67.6W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 67.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.8N 69.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 29.8N 70.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 30.1N 72.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 32.7N 72.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 35.2N 71.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 39.3N 70.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 41.4N 69.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 67.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 181435
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 18 2021

Deep convection has been increasing during the past several hours in
association with Henri, and the cloud pattern mostly consists of a
central dense overcast with some fragmented bands around it. The
Dvorak estimates are steady at 3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and
therefore, the initial intensity is held at that value. However,
the latest automated Dvorak values from CIMSS at the University of
Wisconsin are higher, so it is possible that Henri could be slightly
stronger. An SSMIS pass from 1124 UTC showed some southward tilt
of the vortex with height and revealed a small mid-level eye
feature.

Henri continues to move just south of due west at 7 kt. The storm
is expected to move westward during the next day or so as it moves
in the flow on the south or southeast side of a mid-level ridge.
This ridge is expected to slide eastward by Friday as a mid- to
upper-level low develops over the Ohio Valley and northeastern U.S.
In response, Henri is expected to turn northward or north-
northeastward on Friday and continue in that direction through the
weekend. One complicating factor is that several of the models show
a ridge building over the northwestern Atlantic and Atlantic Canada,
which could cause the storm to stay on a more northward track closer
to New England than currently forecast. The spread in the models
for Henri's future track is quite large, with some guidance as far
west as Long Island and as far east as 62W longitude. Overall, the
models continue to walk left each cycle, and the NHC track forecast
has again been shifted in that direction. NOAA Gulfstream IV
missions and special weather balloon soundings have been scheduled,
and it is hoped that this additional data will help the models
handle the evolving steering pattern. Given the uncertainty in the
longer range track forecasts, users should be prepared for
additional adjustments to the NHC track forecast in future forecast
cycles.

The storm is currently in an environment of about 15-20 kt of
northerly wind shear according to the SHIPS model and analyses from
CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Since the shear is expected
to persist or become a little stronger during the next couple of
days, little change in strength is predicted during that time
period. After that time, the shear is expected to lessen and that
should allow Henri to strengthen to a hurricane by the weekend. Some
weakening is shown by the end of the period when Henri is forecast
to be moving over cooler waters. The NHC intensity forecast is
largely an update of the previous one and is just a little lower
than the consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Swells from Henri could reach much of the east coast of the U.S.
and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the
weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents.

2. Uncertainty in the track forecast for Henri this weekend and
early next week is larger than usual, and there is some risk of
direct impacts from Henri in portions of the northeastern U.S. and
Atlantic Canada during that time. Interests in these areas should
follow updates to the forecast through the next several days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 30.0N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 29.9N 67.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 29.8N 69.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 30.1N 71.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 30.7N 72.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 32.1N 72.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 34.2N 71.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 38.0N 69.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 41.0N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 181435
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 18 2021

...HENRI HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 66.6W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 66.6 West. Henri is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue for another day or so. A turn to the north is
expected on Friday with that motion continuing into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
couple of days, but Henri is expected to become a hurricane by the
weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across
much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada later this
week and this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 181435
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021
1500 UTC WED AUG 18 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 66.6W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 70SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 66.6W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 66.1W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 29.9N 67.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 29.8N 69.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 30.1N 71.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 30.7N 72.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 32.1N 72.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 34.2N 71.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 38.0N 69.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 41.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 66.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 180854
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 AM AST Wed Aug 18 2021

There's been little change in Henri's satellite appearance this
morning. The surface center is still located just to the northwest
of a gradually expanding central dense overcast, and there still
appears to be an eye-like feature in the Bermuda Doppler radar
presentation. However, there are no indications in the GOES-16
BD-curve enhanced infrared images of a developing warm spot.
Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates remain
steady, and the initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this
advisory.

Although the surrounding thermodynamic environment is ripe for
further significant development, moderate northwesterly shear
continues to impinge on the cyclone causing difficulty in inner-core
convective development. Consequently, little change in strength is
expected during the next couple days, and in fact the statistical
SHIPS model indicates an increase in a more northerly shear
component on Thursday. By Saturday afternoon, however, the shear
should decrease as the cyclone slides beneath an upper ridge axis
off of the southeast U.S. coast. Henri is expected to further
intensity through the remaining period as the upper-wind flow
becomes much more diffluent. The official intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory, and lies between the SHIPS model
and the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach aid after the 60-hour
period.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 260/7 kt. A high
amplitude mid- to upper-level anticyclone situated north-northeast
of Henri should steer the cyclone toward the west during the next 36
hours, or so. Thereafter, the aforementioned ridge is forecast to
weaken and shift eastward in response to a mid-latitude shortwave
trough moving over the northeastern U.S. As a result of the change
in the synoptic steering pattern, Henri should turn toward the
northwest, north, and then northeast through the remaining portion
of the forecast. With so much uncertainty or spread in the global
and regional models beyond day 3, the best approach at this point is
to base the NHC forecast on the better performing multi-model
consensus guidance, which has once again shifted a bit to the left
of the previous track forecast. I think it's worth noting that the
GFSv16 model is now showing a shortwave ridge building over
eastern Canada on Sunday, which causes Henri to move more northward
toward the New England coast. Therefore, additional changes or
shifts of the track beyond the 60-hour period may be required on
subsequent advisories.

Due to the increased uncertainty in the track forecast, interests
along the New England coast should monitor the progress of Henri.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 30.1N 65.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 29.9N 66.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 29.8N 68.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 29.8N 70.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 30.4N 71.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 20/1800Z 31.4N 72.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 33.0N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 37.6N 69.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 40.5N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 180853
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 AM AST Wed Aug 18 2021

...HENRI NOW MOVING WESTWARD...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 65.7W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For additional storm information, please monitor products issued by
the Bermuda Weather Service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 30.1 North, longitude 65.7 West. Henri is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn to the
west-northwest and Northwest by late Thursday is expected, followed
by a turn to the northwest on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength if forecast through Thursday.
However, Henri could still become a hurricane by the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible tonight across Bermuda
and the nearby waters, particularly to the south of the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells could increase along the
southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts by the end of the week.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 180547
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
200 AM AST Wed Aug 18 2021

...HENRI MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 65.1W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 65.1 West. Henri is
moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (10 km/h). A gradual
turn to the west with a faster forward motion is expected later
today, followed by an additional turn to the west-northwest and
northwest by late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today, followed
by little change in strength through Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible tonight across Bermuda
and the nearby waters, particularly to the south of the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells could increase along the
southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts by the end of the week.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 180331 CCA
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 9...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021

Corrected speed of motion in the second paragraph.

Henri's appearance on satellite imagery has remained more or less
steady-state, featuring a small CDO with additional convective
banding along the eastern side of the circulation. However, the
earlier mid-level eye feature that was trying to develop on radar
from Bermuda has recently become more ill-defined, possibly due to
some dry-air being entrained into the inner-core of the storm. The
latest Dvorak subjective estimates from SAB and TAFB were T3.0/45 kt
and T3.5/55 kt, respectively. In addition, a 2336 UTC ASCAT-A pass
had lower peak wind retrievals than what was found earlier today,
but this instrument may not be quite able to sample the relatively
small tropical cyclone core observed on radar. For now, the initial
intensity will be held at 55 kt, though this estimate could be a bit
generous given the recent scatterometer data.

Henri has begun a more pronounced motion to the west-southwest, and
the latest initial motion is estimated at 255/07 kt. An amplified
mid- to upper-tropospheric ridge located northwest of Henri is
expected to keep the storm on a west-southwestward or westward
heading in the short term. However this ridge will begin to
gradually erode as an mid- to upper-level trough propagates eastward
to the Eastern United States. This should allow Henri to start
gaining latitude by 48 hours, turning toward the northwest, north,
and then northeast as the mid-level ridging redevelops southeast of
the cyclone. There remains a large amount of spread in the guidance,
with the stronger regional hurricane models on the left side, while
the weaker global models remain more on the right side of the
guidance envelope. In general though, there was another westward
shift in the guidance suite, so the latest NHC forecast track was
adjusted again in that direction, and is in closest agreement to the
HCCA guidance aid.

The intensity forecast in the short-term is tricky. Last night and
this morning, Henri's deep convection was been able to propagate
into its up-shear quadrant, in spite of light to moderate
northwesterly shear importing fairly dry mid-latitude air from the
north. Consequently, the storm has been able to intensify and become
more axis-symmetrical. Over the past few hours, however, the
convection to the northwest of the center has eroded once again on
Bermuda radar, likely due to dry air entrainment by the
aforementioned vertical wind shear. On the other hand, the tropical
cyclone is currently over sea-surface temperatures above 29 C, which
will likely allow for significant boundary layer recovery of dry
mid-level air that is able to get into the inner core. Thus, even as
northerly vertical wind shear increases over the next 24 hours,
Henri is expected to maintain its intensity. After 60 hours, this
northerly shear is expected to subside, and Henri will have an
opportunity to intensify towards the end of the forecast. The latest
NHC intensity forecast is quite similar to the previous one for the
first 60 hours, but is a little stronger in the latter time periods,
blending the reliable HCCA guidance with the more aggressive
regional hurricane models (HWRF, COAMPS-TC).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 30.0N 65.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 29.9N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 29.8N 67.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 29.8N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 30.1N 71.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 30.9N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 32.0N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 36.6N 69.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 40.2N 65.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 180300
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021

Henri's appearance on satellite imagery has remained more or less
steady-state, featuring a small CDO with additional convective
banding along the eastern side of the circulation. However, the
earlier mid-level eye feature that was trying to develop on radar
from Bermuda has recently become more ill-defined, possibly due to
some dry-air being entrained into the inner-core of the storm. The
latest Dvorak subjective estimates from SAB and TAFB were T3.0/45 kt
and T3.5/55 kt, respectively. In addition, a 2336 UTC ASCAT-A pass
had lower peak wind retrievals than what was found earlier today,
but this instrument may not be quite able to sample the relatively
small tropical cyclone core observed on radar. For now, the initial
intensity will be held at 55 kt, though this estimate could be a bit
generous given the recent scatterometer data.

Henri has begun a more pronounced motion to the west-southwest, and
the latest initial motion is estimated at 255/08 kt. An amplified
mid- to upper-tropospheric ridge located northwest of Henri is
expected to keep the storm on a west-southwestward or westward
heading in the short term. However this ridge will begin to
gradually erode as an mid- to upper-level trough propagates eastward
to the Eastern United States. This should allow Henri to start
gaining latitude by 48 hours, turning toward the northwest, north,
and then northeast as the mid-level ridging redevelops southeast of
the cyclone. There remains a large amount of spread in the guidance,
with the stronger regional hurricane models on the left side, while
the weaker global models remain more on the right side of the
guidance envelope. In general though, there was another westward
shift in the guidance suite, so the latest NHC forecast track was
adjusted again in that direction, and is in closest agreement to the
HCCA guidance aid.

The intensity forecast in the short-term is tricky. Last night and
this morning, Henri's deep convection was been able to propagate
into its up-shear quadrant, in spite of light to moderate
northwesterly shear importing fairly dry mid-latitude air from the
north. Consequently, the storm has been able to intensify and become
more axis-symmetrical. Over the past few hours, however, the
convection to the northwest of the center has eroded once again on
Bermuda radar, likely due to dry air entrainment by the
aforementioned vertical wind shear. On the other hand, the tropical
cyclone is currently over sea-surface temperatures above 29 C, which
will likely allow for significant boundary layer recovery of dry
mid-level air that is able to get into the inner core. Thus, even as
northerly vertical wind shear increases over the next 24 hours,
Henri is expected to maintain its intensity. After 60 hours, this
northerly shear is expected to subside, and Henri will have an
opportunity to intensify towards the end of the forecast. The latest
NHC intensity forecast is quite similar to the previous one for the
first 60 hours, but is a little stronger in the latter time periods,
blending the reliable HCCA guidance with the more aggressive
regional hurricane models (HWRF, COAMPS-TC).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 30.0N 65.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 29.9N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 29.8N 67.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 29.8N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 30.1N 71.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 30.9N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 32.0N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 36.6N 69.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 40.2N 65.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 180257
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021

...HENRI MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH 65-MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 65.1W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 65.1 West. Henri is
moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual
turn to the west with a faster forward motion is expected over the
next 12 to 24 hours, followed by an additional turn to the
west-northwest and northwest by late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight, followed
by little change in strength through Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible tonight across Bermuda
and the nearby waters, particularly to the south of the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri are expected to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells could increase along the
southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts by the end of the week.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 180256
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021
0300 UTC WED AUG 18 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 65.1W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 65.1W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 64.5W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 29.9N 66.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 29.8N 67.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 29.8N 69.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 30.1N 71.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 30.9N 72.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 32.0N 71.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 36.6N 69.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 40.2N 65.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 65.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 18/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 172340
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
800 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021

...HENRI BEGINNING TO MOVE A BIT FASTER TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 64.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 64.5 West. Henri is
moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (8 km/h). A somewhat
faster motion toward the west is forecast by tomorrow, followed by a
motion to the west-northwest or northwest by late Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Henri should pass well to the south of
Bermuda later tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight, followed
by little change in strength through Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible tonight across Bermuda
and the nearby waters, particularly to the south of the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri are expected to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells could increase along the
southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts by the end of the week.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 172040
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021

Henri appears to be gaining strength. Satellite images show banding
features becoming increasingly curved, especially on the east side
of the system, and an eye feature has been occasionally seen in
radar images from Bermuda. The upper-level outflow is also well
established to the north and east of the center. The center itself
is estimated to be located near the western edge of the convection,
but it is possible that a new center is forming farther east. The
initial intensity is raised to 55 kt following the Dvorak
classification from TAFB. The initial wind radii has been expanded
outward based on an earlier ASCAT pass.

The tropical storm appears to have slowed down, and the latest
initial motion estimate is 255/2 kt. A subtropical ridge over the
western Atlantic is building eastward to the north of Henri, and
this feature should steer the storm westward at a slightly faster
pace during the next two to three days. After that time, the ridge
is expected to weaken and shift farther east as a cut off low or
negatively-tilted trough develops over the northeast U.S. This
change in the steering pattern should cause Henri to turn
northeastward between Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S in the
72-120 h period. There is a fair amount of spread in exactly when
and where Henri makes this turn and the GFS and EC ensembles have
some members not far offshore of New England and Atlantic Canada.
Overall, the guidance has shifted westward again this cycle, and the
NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly from days 3 to 5.

The northwesterly shear currently affecting Henri is subsiding,
which should allow the storm to gain a little more strength tonight.
However, a round of moderate northerly shear is expected to setup
over Henri on Wednesday and Thursday and that will likely
temporarily end the opportunity for strengthening. Although this
shear would typically cause some weakening, the combination of warm
SSTs and increasing mid-level moisture could offset the negative
influences of the shear. By Friday and over the weekend, the shear
is expected to lessen again and since the other environmental
factors are predicted to remain favorable for the storm,
strengthening is shown from days 3-5. This forecast is above the
previous one, and lies fairly close to the middle of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 30.4N 64.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 30.3N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 30.2N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 30.2N 68.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 30.3N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 31.0N 71.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 32.0N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 35.5N 69.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 39.1N 65.2W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 172039
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021

...HENRI STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 64.2W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 64.2 West. Henri is
moving toward the west-southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A faster
motion toward the west is forecast by tonight, followed by a motion
to the west-northwest or northwest by late Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Henri should pass well to the south of Bermuda
through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight, followed
by little change in strength through Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible today across Bermuda
and the nearby waters, particularly to the south of the
island.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri are expected to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Swells could increase along the
southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts by the end of the week.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 172039
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021
2100 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 64.2W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 64.2W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 64.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 30.3N 65.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 30.2N 67.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 30.2N 68.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.3N 70.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 31.0N 71.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 32.0N 71.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 35.5N 69.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 39.1N 65.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N 64.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 18/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 171747
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
200 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021

...HENRI STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 64.3W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 64.3 West. Henri is
moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster
motion toward the west is forecast by tonight, followed by a motion
to the west-northwest or northwest by late Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Henri should pass well to the south of Bermuda
through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible
during the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible today across Bermuda
and the nearby waters, particularly to the south of the
island.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri are expected to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Please consult products from the Bermuda
Weather Service for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 171435
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 17 2021

Henri remains a sheared tropical storm. Geostationary satellite
images and microwave data show a relatively large area of deep
convection (~200 miles across), but the center of the storm is
located near the western edge of the thunderstorms due to ongoing
northwesterly vertical wind shear. The latest Dvorak estimates have
been steady at 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB, and based on that data,
the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. The center of Henri is
located roughly 130 miles south-southeast of Bermuda currently, and
this will likely be as close as the storm gets to the island.

The tropical storm is gradually turning to the west, as expected,
and the initial motion is estimated to be 255/5 kt. A subtropical
ridge over the western Atlantic is building eastward to the north of
Henri, and this feature should steer the storm westward at a
slightly faster pace during the next two or three days. After that
time, the ridge is expected to weaken and shift farther east as a
cut off low or negatively-tilted trough develops over the northeast
U.S. This change in the steering pattern should cause Henri to turn
northeastward between Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S in the
72-120 h period. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the
previous one in the short term and farther west than the previous
one from days 3-5, trending toward the latest consensus models.

The northwesterly shear currently affecting Henri is expected to
subside later today, and that should allow the storm to gain
strength during the next 12-24 hours. However, a round of moderate
northerly shear is expected to setup over Henri during the 24-96
hour period. Although this shear would typically cause some
weakening, the combination of warm SSTs and increasing mid-level
moisture could offset the negative influences of the shear.
Therefore, no change in strength is predicted beyond the 24 h
period. Some of the models suggest that the shear could lessen
again this weekend, so although not explicitly forecast, some
strengthening is possible then.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 30.4N 64.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 30.4N 65.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 30.3N 66.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 30.3N 68.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 30.4N 69.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 30.7N 70.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 31.6N 71.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 34.1N 69.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 37.4N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 171434
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 17 2021

...HENRI HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 64.3W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 64.3 West. Henri is
moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster
motion toward the west is forecast by tonight, followed by a motion
to the west-northwest or northwest by late Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Henri should pass well to the south
of Bermuda through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible today across Bermuda
and the nearby waters, particularly to the south of the
island.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri are expected to affect Bermuda
during the next day or so. Please consult products from the Bermuda
Weather Service for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 171434
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021
1500 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 64.3W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 64.3W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 64.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 30.4N 65.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 30.3N 66.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 30.3N 68.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.4N 69.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 30.7N 70.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 31.6N 71.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 34.1N 69.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 37.4N 66.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N 64.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 17/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 171152
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
800 AM AST Tue Aug 17 2021

...HENRI EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 64.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 64.0 West. Henri is
moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward
the west is forecast by tonight, followed by a motion to the
west-northwest or northwest by late Thursday. On the forecast track,
the center of Henri should pass well to the south of Bermuda later
today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so.

Henri remains a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and the
nearby waters today, particularly to the south of the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Henri are expected to begin affecting
Bermuda later today. Please consult products from the Bermuda
Weather Service for more details.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 170831
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 AM AST Tue Aug 17 2021

Earlier this evening Henri was undergoing a sheared bursting
pattern, with intermittent deep convection trying to develop near
the center, but northwesterly shear would quickly diminish the
convective coverage. However, over the past several hours the
convection has become more persistent, and covers at least the
southeastern portion of the low-level center. As such, the latest
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are now
both 3.0 (45 kt), and therefore 45 kt will be the initial advisory
intensity.

Henri is forecast to remain over warm waters and in an environment
of light to moderate northerly shear for the next 24 h, so some
strengthening is expected during that time. After 24 h, global
models indicate that the shear magnitude will double, which should
prevent any further strengthening and possibly weaken the cyclone.
The latest NHC intensity forecast was adjusted a little higher than
the previous due to both the increase in initial intensity, and
slight increase in the model intensity guidance. This forecast
closely follows the LGEM solution and is just a little lower than
the IVCN consensus.

The tropical storm continues to move slowly southwest, or 240/04 kt
to the southeast of a mid-level ridge. This ridge is forecast to
shift to the east over the next several days, which would result in
the tropical storm making a gradual clockwise turn throughout much
of the forecast period. Tonight, Henri is forecast to turn westward
with a increase in forward motion and pass well south of Bermuda. In
a few days, the cyclone should turn to the northwest then north,
followed by a turn to the northeast around the western periphery of
the ridge. There continues to be some spread in how far west Henri
will go before it begins to turn to the north, and the latest
guidance has made a slight shift to the left. The official NHC
forecast is near the previous one through 48 h, then is a little
left of it thereafter, yet still remains to the right of the bulk of
the consensus guidance beyond 48 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 30.6N 63.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 30.4N 64.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 30.3N 65.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 30.2N 67.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 30.3N 68.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 19/1800Z 30.8N 69.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 31.6N 70.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 34.0N 69.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 22/0600Z 36.0N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 170830
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 AM AST Tue Aug 17 2021

...HENRI STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 63.7W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 63.7 West. Henri is
moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward
the west is forecast by tonight, and a slightly faster westward
motion should continue through early Thursday. A turn to the
west-northwest or northwest is expected by late Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Henri should pass well to the south of
Bermuda late today or tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during
the next day or so.

Henri remains a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and the
nearby waters today, particularly to the south of the island.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 170830
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021
0900 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 63.7W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 63.7W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 63.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 30.4N 64.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 30.3N 65.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 30.2N 67.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 30.3N 68.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.8N 69.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 31.6N 70.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 34.0N 69.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 36.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 63.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 17/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 170531
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
200 AM AST Tue Aug 17 2021

...HENRI MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 63.5W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 63.5 West. Henri is
moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion
should continue through this morning. A turn toward the west is
forecast by tonight, and a slightly faster westward motion should
continue through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center
of Henri should pass well to the south of Bermuda late today or
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so.

Henri is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward only up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and the
nearby waters today, particularly to the south of the island.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 170456 CCA
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 5...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021

Corrected statement in movement section

Bursts of deep convection continue to pulse over the southeastern
portion of Henri's circulation. Although the tropical cyclone is
still being affected by dry-air entrainment and light-to-moderate
shear, the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates are a little higher than before, and a blend of those
estimates yields an initial wind speed of 40 kt for this advisory.
Henri is forecast to remain over SSTs of 28-29C throughout the
forecast period, but the mid-level relative humidity is forecast
to remain fairly dry, which is likely to only support gradual
strengthening over the next day or so. After that time, a
significant increase in northeasterly shear is anticipated, and
that is likely to stop further strengthening. As mentioned in the
previous advisory, given the small size of Henri, the tropical
cyclone is likely to be more susceptible to this shear and it is
possible that Henri weakens more than indicated below by day 3. The
NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the various statistical aids,
and the CTCI and HMNI models. Less weight is again placed on the
HWRF model, which remains quite aggressive in strengthening Henri
over the next several days despite the expected increase in shear
and dry mid-level environment.

Henri is moving southwestward or 215/4 kt. The tropical storm is
forecast to move in a clockwise motion over the next several days as
it moves around a mid-tropospheric high that is forecast to shift
eastward over the western Atlantic. This motion should take Henri
south of Bermuda late Tuesday or Tuesday night. By 72 hours, the
storm is expected to reach the western extent of the ridge and turn
northward, and then northeastward by the end of the forecast period.
There is still some spread in the guidance as to when and how sharp
the turn will be. As a result, the NHC track forecast is a blend of
the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models later in the period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 30.7N 63.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 30.5N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 30.4N 64.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 30.3N 66.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 30.3N 67.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 19/1200Z 30.5N 69.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 31.3N 70.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 32.8N 69.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 35.0N 66.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 170241
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021

Bursts of deep convection continue to pulse over the southeastern
portion of Henri's circulation. Although the tropical cyclone is
still being affected by dry-air entrainment and light-to-moderate
shear, the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates are a little higher than before, and a blend of those
estimates yields an initial wind speed of 40 kt for this advisory.
Henri is forecast to remain over SSTs of 28-29C throughout the
forecast period, but the mid-level relative humidity is forecast
to remain fairly dry, which is likely to only support gradual
strengthening over the next day or so. After that time, a
significant increase in northeasterly shear is anticipated, and
that is likely to stop further strengthening. As mentioned in the
previous advisory, given the small size of Henri, the tropical
cyclone is likely to be more susceptible to this shear and it is
possible that Henri weakens more than indicated below by day 3. The
NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the various statistical aids,
and the CTCI and HMNI models. Less weight is again placed on the
HWRF model, which remains quite aggressive in strengthening Henri
over the next several days despite the expected increase in shear
and dry mid-level environment.

Henri is moving southwestward or 215/4 kt. The tropical storm is
forecast to move in a counterclockwise motion over the next several
days as it moves around a mid-tropospheric high that is forecast
to shift eastward over the western Atlantic. This motion should
take Henri south of Bermuda late Tuesday or Tuesday night. By 72
hours, the storm is expected to reach the western extent of the
ridge and turn northward, and then northeastward by the end of
the forecast period. There is still some spread in the guidance
as to when and how sharp the turn will be. As a result, the NHC
track forecast is a blend of the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF
models later in the period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 30.7N 63.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 30.5N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 30.4N 64.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 30.3N 66.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 30.3N 67.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 19/1200Z 30.5N 69.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 31.3N 70.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 32.8N 69.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 35.0N 66.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 170241
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021

...HENRI A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.7N 63.3W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 30.7 North, longitude 63.3 West. Henri is
moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion
should continue through Tuesday morning. A turn toward the west is
is forecast by Tuesday night, and a slightly faster westward motion
should continue through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Henri should pass well to the south of Bermuda late
Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible
during the next day or so.

Henri is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward only up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and
the nearby waters on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the
island.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 170241
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021
0300 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 63.3W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 63.3W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 63.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.5N 63.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 30.4N 64.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 30.3N 66.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 30.3N 67.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.5N 69.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 31.3N 70.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 32.8N 69.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 35.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.7N 63.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 17/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 162347
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
800 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021

...HENRI MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 63.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 205 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 63.0 West. Henri is
moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow
clockwise turn toward the southwest and then toward the west is
expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the
center of Henri should pass well to the south of Bermuda late
Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of
days.

Henri is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds only
extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and
the nearby waters on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the
island.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 162046
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021

Deep convection has persisted near and southeast of the center
of the small tropical cyclone today, and subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates were a consensus T2.5 (35 kt) at 1800 UTC.
Objective estimates from ADT and SATCON also support tropical
storm status, therefore the depression has been upgraded to a
35-kt tropical storm with this advisory. Henri (ahn-REE) becomes
the eighth named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. This
is the fourth-earliest eighth storm on record with only 2020,
2005, and 1936 having the eighth-named storm form earlier in the
season.

Henri is located over warm waters, but is currently being affected
by light to moderate northerly shear and dry mid-level air in the
surrounding environment. Although these conditions are not overly
conducive for strengthening, most of the intensity guidance
supports gradual intensification over the next 24 to 48 hours.
After that time, a significant increase in northeasterly
upper-level winds is depicted by the global models over the system,
which is likely to halt further strengthening. In fact, given the
small size of Henri, it is likely to be more susceptible to the
increase in shear, and it could weaken faster than indicated below.
The HWRF remains more aggressive, but given the expected increase in
shear, that solution still does not seem likely. The NHC intensity
forecast is in best agreement with the LGEM model, and is slightly
below the IVCN intensity consensus.

The tropical storm is moving south-southwestward or 200/6 kt. Henri
is forecast to move west-southwestward during the next 12-24 hours
around the southeastern side of a mid-tropospheric high over the
western Atlantic. After that time, Henri should turn westward as
the ridge shifts eastward to the north of the tropical cyclone, and
after 72 hours Henri is expected to approach the western extent of
the ridge and should turn northward and then north-northeastward.
The dynamical model guidance is in somewhat better agreement during
the next 48-72 hours, but there remains some spread later in
the period as to how sharp of northward turn occurs. The new NHC
track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near
the center of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 31.0N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 30.5N 63.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 30.3N 64.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 30.2N 65.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 30.2N 66.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 30.3N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 30.5N 69.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 31.8N 70.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 34.2N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 162045
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM HENRI...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 62.9W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 62.9 West. Henri is
moving toward the south-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow
clockwise turn toward the southwest and then toward the west is
expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the
center of Henri should pass well to the south of Bermuda late
Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days.

Henri is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
only extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and
the nearby waters on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the
island.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 162045
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021
2100 UTC MON AUG 16 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 62.9W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 62.9W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 62.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 30.5N 63.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 30.3N 64.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 30.2N 65.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 30.2N 66.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 30.3N 68.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.5N 69.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 31.8N 70.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 34.2N 68.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 62.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 17/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 161733
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
200 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STILL MOVING SOUTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 62.8W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 185 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 62.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the south near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slow
clockwise turn toward the southwest and then toward the west is
expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the
center of the depression will move well to the south of Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or
tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and
the nearby waters on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the
island.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 161559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 16.08.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 71.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.08.2021 0 17.3N 71.0W 1010 27
0000UTC 17.08.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LINDA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 123.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.08.2021 0 18.0N 123.3W 969 67
0000UTC 17.08.2021 12 17.7N 124.9W 970 68
1200UTC 17.08.2021 24 17.7N 126.8W 973 64
0000UTC 18.08.2021 36 17.9N 128.9W 973 62
1200UTC 18.08.2021 48 18.3N 131.4W 978 62
0000UTC 19.08.2021 60 18.9N 134.1W 983 56
1200UTC 19.08.2021 72 19.7N 137.1W 993 46
0000UTC 20.08.2021 84 20.2N 140.2W 1001 39
1200UTC 20.08.2021 96 20.5N 143.5W 1004 37
0000UTC 21.08.2021 108 20.6N 146.7W 1005 36
1200UTC 21.08.2021 120 20.5N 149.5W 1005 36
0000UTC 22.08.2021 132 20.3N 151.9W 1005 35
1200UTC 22.08.2021 144 20.1N 153.8W 1006 34

TROPICAL STORM FRED ANALYSED POSITION : 28.5N 85.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.08.2021 0 28.5N 85.8W 1003 36
0000UTC 17.08.2021 12 29.7N 85.5W 1001 34
1200UTC 17.08.2021 24 32.0N 84.9W 1006 24
0000UTC 18.08.2021 36 33.9N 84.1W 1008 24
1200UTC 18.08.2021 48 37.3N 82.3W 1014 13
0000UTC 19.08.2021 60 39.2N 80.2W 1015 23
1200UTC 19.08.2021 72 40.1N 77.8W 1014 28
0000UTC 20.08.2021 84 38.7N 76.3W 1012 21
1200UTC 20.08.2021 96 39.8N 73.7W 1010 22
0000UTC 21.08.2021 108 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08L ANALYSED POSITION : 31.9N 63.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.08.2021 0 31.9N 63.0W 1013 23
0000UTC 17.08.2021 12 31.0N 63.2W 1012 24
1200UTC 17.08.2021 24 30.7N 63.8W 1012 25
0000UTC 18.08.2021 36 30.7N 65.0W 1012 26
1200UTC 18.08.2021 48 30.7N 66.6W 1014 26
0000UTC 19.08.2021 60 31.1N 68.2W 1014 25
1200UTC 19.08.2021 72 31.1N 69.6W 1013 25
0000UTC 20.08.2021 84 31.7N 70.1W 1011 27
1200UTC 20.08.2021 96 32.9N 69.9W 1010 29
0000UTC 21.08.2021 108 34.4N 68.4W 1009 30
1200UTC 21.08.2021 120 35.6N 65.7W 1010 29
0000UTC 22.08.2021 132 35.9N 62.3W 1010 29
1200UTC 22.08.2021 144 35.0N 59.1W 1010 30

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 18.9N 76.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.08.2021 24 18.9N 76.5W 1008 32
0000UTC 18.08.2021 36 19.2N 79.4W 1007 31
1200UTC 18.08.2021 48 19.7N 83.0W 1008 35
0000UTC 19.08.2021 60 19.7N 86.3W 1006 40
1200UTC 19.08.2021 72 20.1N 89.3W 1006 30
0000UTC 20.08.2021 84 20.0N 92.2W 1001 41
1200UTC 20.08.2021 96 19.9N 94.5W 994 52
0000UTC 21.08.2021 108 19.0N 96.7W 1001 30
1200UTC 21.08.2021 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 19.2N 105.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2021 144 20.0N 107.6W 1003 33


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 161559

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 161559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 16.08.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 71.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.08.2021 17.3N 71.0W WEAK
00UTC 17.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE LINDA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 123.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.08.2021 18.0N 123.3W STRONG
00UTC 17.08.2021 17.7N 124.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2021 17.7N 126.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2021 17.9N 128.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2021 18.3N 131.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.08.2021 18.9N 134.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.08.2021 19.7N 137.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.08.2021 20.2N 140.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.08.2021 20.5N 143.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2021 20.6N 146.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.08.2021 20.5N 149.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2021 20.3N 151.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2021 20.1N 153.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM FRED ANALYSED POSITION : 28.5N 85.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.08.2021 28.5N 85.8W WEAK
00UTC 17.08.2021 29.7N 85.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2021 32.0N 84.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.08.2021 33.9N 84.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2021 37.3N 82.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.08.2021 39.2N 80.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2021 40.1N 77.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2021 38.7N 76.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2021 39.8N 73.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08L ANALYSED POSITION : 31.9N 63.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.08.2021 31.9N 63.0W WEAK
00UTC 17.08.2021 31.0N 63.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.08.2021 30.7N 63.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.08.2021 30.7N 65.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2021 30.7N 66.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2021 31.1N 68.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2021 31.1N 69.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2021 31.7N 70.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.08.2021 32.9N 69.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.08.2021 34.4N 68.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.08.2021 35.6N 65.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2021 35.9N 62.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2021 35.0N 59.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 18.9N 76.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.08.2021 18.9N 76.5W WEAK
00UTC 18.08.2021 19.2N 79.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.08.2021 19.7N 83.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.08.2021 19.7N 86.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.08.2021 20.1N 89.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.08.2021 20.0N 92.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.08.2021 19.9N 94.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.08.2021 19.0N 96.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.08.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 19.2N 105.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.08.2021 20.0N 107.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 161559

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 161444
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021

Although the center of the depression is embedded beneath deep
convection, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are not a consensus
T2.5 quite yet. Therefore, the depression is still estimated to be
producing maximum winds of 30 kt. Very warm waters and low to
moderate deep-layer shear are expected to support strengthening
during the next couple of days. After 48 hours, strong northerly to
northeasterly shear of 25-30 kt is likely halt any intensification.
For the most part, the NHC intensity forecast is very close to the
tightly clustered SHIPS, LGEM, HCCA, and IVCN aids. As we've seen
in several cases this year, the HWRF is a notable high outlier,
bringing the system to category 2 hurricane strength in 2-3 days.
Given the expected shear, that solution does not appear likely at
this point.

The depression has been moving southward, or 185/8 kt, and it is
expected to rotate around a mid-tropospheric high located over the
western Atlantic. Track models are in general agreement that the
system will make a clockwise loop in the coming days, with most of
the disagreement being in how sharp the turn will be. In part due
to the system's initial motion, the updated NHC track forecast now
shows a wider, sweeping loop and is close to the TVCA consensus aid.
It should be noted that the ECMWF and HCCA aids are even farther
south and show an even more gradual turn.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 31.3N 62.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 30.6N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 30.2N 63.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 29.9N 64.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 29.8N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 29.9N 67.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 30.1N 68.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 31.0N 70.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 33.1N 69.2W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 161441
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALMOST A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 62.8W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 185 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 62.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the south near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slow
clockwise turn toward the southwest and then toward the west is
expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the
center of the depression will move well to the south of Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and
the nearby waters on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the
island.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 161441
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021
1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 62.8W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 185 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 62.8W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 62.7W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.6N 63.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.2N 63.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 29.9N 64.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 29.8N 66.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 29.9N 67.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.1N 68.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 31.0N 70.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 33.1N 69.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 62.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 16/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 161132
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
800 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 62.8W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 185 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 62.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the south near 9 mph (15 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue this morning. A slow
clockwise turn toward the southwest and west is anticipated during
the next couple of days, followed by a continued westward motion on
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will
pass to the southeast and south of Bermuda during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast, and the system is forecast
to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and
the nearby waters on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the
island.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 160850
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021

Satellite imagery and radar data from Bermuda indicate that the
tropical depression located about 100 nmi east of Bermuda has been
moving southward and also remains a sheared tropical cyclone -- the
ongoing saga of the Atlantic basin thus far this hurricane season.
Convection has increased and developed closer to the center and a
late-arriving ASCAT-C overpass indicated surface winds of 26-27 kt
to the south of the well-defined circulation center. Based on those
data, the slightly improved convective structure noted in both
satellite and radar data, and satellite classifications of T2.0/30
kt, the initial intensity has been increased to 30 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 195/04 kt. The small cyclone is
starting to make the clockwise turn toward the south-southwest and
eventually southwest that the global and regional models have been
advertising the past couple of days. The latest NHC model guidance
now shows less of a turn to the northwest after 72 hours, with the
exception of the GFS, GFS-ensemble, and HMON models, which continue
to take the cyclone northward and northeastward around Bermuda on
day 4 and 5. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous advisory track through 60 hours, and then widens the track
slightly thereafter, but still shows a complete clockwise turn. This
track scenario is to the right of the consensus models at all
forecast periods, and is of low confidence on days 4 and 5.

The vertical wind shear is forecast to remain at or below 10 kt for
the next 36 hours or so, and that is most likely the time when the
cyclone will strengthen. Thereafter, an increase in the shear to 20
kt or more is expected to cap the intensification process. The HWRF
model turn the cyclone into a major hurricane by 72 hours, but this
scenario is considered to be an extreme outlier given the amount of
shear forecast to affect the system on days 3-5. So far this season,
the HWRF model has been very shear resistant and has had a high
intensity bias. The official intensity forecast closely follows a
blend of the IVCN and HCCA consensus models through 60 hours, and
then is below those models due to the high-bias contribution of the
HWRF model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 32.4N 62.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 31.6N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 31.0N 63.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 30.7N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 30.7N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 30.8N 66.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 31.1N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 32.0N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 34.0N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 160849
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION PASSING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 62.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 195 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 62.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue this morning. A slow
clockwise turn toward the southwest and west is anticipated during
the next couple of days, followed by a continued westward motion on
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will
pass to the southeast and south of Bermuda during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast and the system is forecast to become
a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and
the nearby waters on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the
island.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 160848
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021
0900 UTC MON AUG 16 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 62.9W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 195 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 62.9W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 62.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 31.6N 63.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.0N 63.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 30.7N 64.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 30.7N 65.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 30.8N 66.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 31.1N 68.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 32.0N 69.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 34.0N 68.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 62.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 16/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 160553
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
200 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 62.8W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 185 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 62.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the south near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slow
clockwise turn toward the west is anticipated during the next couple
of days, followed by a continued westward motion on Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of the depression will move east and
south of Bermuda during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast and the system is
forecast to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and
the nearby waters on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the
island.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT43 KNHC 160301
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021

A small well-defined low pressure system located just
east-northeast of Bermuda has produced persistent deep convection
since this morning. Radar imagery from Bermuda along with
geostationary and polar orbiting microwave satellite data show that
the convection is sufficiently well organized to meet the
definition for a tropical cyclone. Therefore advisories have been
started on Tropical Depression Eight. The initial intensity is set
at 25 kt, based on believable winds near that value in a pair of
recent ASCAT overpasses. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were a
little higher, so this estimate could be slightly conservative.

Confidence in the forecast is reasonably high for the next 48 to
72 h. The depression should make a slow clockwise turn around
Bermuda, steered by a mid-level ridge currently centered off the
coast of the Carolinas. Warm SSTs should provide ample fuel to
support at least slight strengthening during this period, despite
expected northerly shear, and this is shown by all of the intensity
guidance. The NHC forecast is very near the multi-model consensus
for both track and intensity through that period.

Beyond 72 h, the track and intensity models diverge quickly. The
HWRF and COAMPS-TC models rapidly intensify the system to major
hurricane strength. A stronger, deeper vortex would likely be
steered generally westward through the end of the forecast period,
influenced by a deeper-layer steering flow. However, the global
models have a much weaker, shallower system which turns northward,
and then possibly accelerates northeastward by day 5. As a result,
the spread in the track guidance is nearly 800 n mi by day 5, with
the GFS and HWRF taking the extreme positions to the northeast and
southwest, respectively. The official track forecast takes a middle
approach, and is between the various consensus aids at days 4 and
5. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly more conservative, and is
below the consensus at the end of the period. Significant changes
to the forecast may be required in subsequent advisory packages.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 33.2N 62.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 32.4N 62.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 31.5N 63.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 31.1N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 31.0N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 31.0N 66.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 31.2N 67.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 32.0N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 33.5N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT23 KNHC 160259
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021
0300 UTC MON AUG 16 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 62.7W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 175 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 62.7W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 62.7W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 32.4N 62.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.5N 63.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.1N 64.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 31.0N 64.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 31.0N 66.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 31.2N 67.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 32.0N 68.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 33.5N 68.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N 62.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 16/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT33 KNHC 160300
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA AND NEARBY WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 62.7W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 175 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 62.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the south near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow
clockwise turn toward the west is anticipated during the next
couple of days, followed by a continued westward motion on
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will
move east and south of Bermuda during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast and the system is forecast to become
a tropical storm on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and
the nearby waters on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the
island.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>