Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for OLAF-21
in Mexico

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Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 111000 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E//
RMKS/
1. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (OLAF) WARNING NR 015A AMENDED
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 15E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 24.5N 113.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5N 113.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.2N 114.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 23.7N 115.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 22.8N 116.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.5N 118.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 20.6N 119.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 20.1N 120.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
111000Z POSITION NEAR 24.4N 114.0W.
11SEP21. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 15E (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
523 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z
IS 17 FEET.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: AMENDED TO REFLECT FINAL WARNING
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 110834
TCDEP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 11 2021

Olaf has been without deep convection for about the last 18 hours,
and it is therefore being designated as a remnant low. A
scatterometer pass from several hours ago still showed winds of
25-30 kt occurring to the north of the center, so the initial
intensity remains 30 kt. Weakening is expected during the next few
days while the remnant low traverses waters of about 25 degrees
Celsius and through a very dry air mass. Global model fields show
the circulation opening up into a trough anywhere between 2 and 6
days from now, so as a compromise the official forecast indicates
this happening by day 4, but it's likely to be sooner than that.

Olaf is now losing latitude and moving south of due west, or 260/5
kt. A strengthening low- to mid-level ridge to the north is
expected to force the remnant low to the west-southwest and
southwest during the next several days. In fact, the models have
been trending toward a more pronounced loss of latitude, and this
final NHC track forecast has been shifted southward from the
previous advisory--close to the TVCE model consensus but not nearly
as far south as the HCCA aid.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 24.4N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 11/1800Z 24.2N 114.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/0600Z 23.7N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/1800Z 22.8N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0600Z 21.5N 118.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/1800Z 20.6N 119.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0600Z 20.1N 120.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 110833
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 11 2021

...OLAF BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 114.0W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf
was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 114.0 West. Olaf
is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A motion toward the
west-southwest or southwest is expected to begin later today and
continue through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and the remnant low
could open up into a trough at any time.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Residual swells from Olaf along the west coast of Baja
California Sur will continue to subside today but could still cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant
low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 110833
TCMEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021
0900 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 114.0W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 114.0W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 113.7W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.2N 114.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.7N 115.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.8N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.5N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 20.6N 119.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 20.1N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 114.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 110402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 11.09.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 18.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.09.2021 0 15.0N 18.5W 1013 16
1200UTC 11.09.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 45.0N 56.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.09.2021 0 45.0N 56.8W 960 78
1200UTC 11.09.2021 12 52.3N 49.0W 974 49
0000UTC 12.09.2021 24 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM OLAF ANALYSED POSITION : 24.7N 113.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.09.2021 0 24.7N 113.2W 1001 39
1200UTC 11.09.2021 12 24.1N 114.0W 1006 28
0000UTC 12.09.2021 24 23.8N 114.5W 1007 23
1200UTC 12.09.2021 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 34.5N 67.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.09.2021 0 34.5N 67.7W 1009 25
1200UTC 11.09.2021 12 35.5N 64.3W 1014 26
0000UTC 12.09.2021 24 36.7N 61.8W 1017 26
1200UTC 12.09.2021 36 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 110402

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 110402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.09.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 18.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.09.2021 15.0N 18.5W WEAK
12UTC 11.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE LARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 45.0N 56.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.09.2021 45.0N 56.8W STRONG
12UTC 11.09.2021 52.3N 49.0W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 12.09.2021 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM OLAF ANALYSED POSITION : 24.7N 113.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.09.2021 24.7N 113.2W WEAK
12UTC 11.09.2021 24.1N 114.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2021 23.8N 114.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 34.5N 67.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.09.2021 34.5N 67.7W WEAK
12UTC 11.09.2021 35.5N 64.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2021 36.7N 61.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 110402

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 110249
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Olaf Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
900 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021

Olaf continues to rapidly weaken this evening as the low-level
circulation spins down while devoid of any deep convection. Olaf has
now failed to produce deep convection for more than 12 hours, and
barring any diurnal convective bursts tonight, could become a
remnant low as soon as tomorrow morning. Winds along the coast of
Baja California Sur are gradually subsiding, and the most recent
TAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak data-T intensity estimates support
downgrading Olaf to a tropical depression this advisory, with
maximum sustained winds of 30 kt.

The tropical depression's track continues to bend leftward as it
pulls away from Baja California Sur, with the latest motion estimate
now due west at 270/7 kt. Now that Olaf has become a shallow
cyclone, it will primarily be steered by the low-level flow around a
extensive subtropical ridge located to the northwest. This flow will
continue to turn Olaf to the left with a southwestward motion
beginning in the next 24 hours, which should continue until the
cyclone dissipates. The official NHC track forecast was nudged a
little to the south and east, following the multi-model consensus
aids.

A combination of cooling sea-surface temperatures (below 26 C) and
very dry-mid level air (below 40 percent relative humidity) should
ensure that Olaf will soon meet a swift end as a tropical cyclone.
The official NHC intensity forecast now makes Olaf a remnant low in
12 hours, and spins the circulation down to 20 kt until eventual
dissipation over the open east Pacific.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 24.7N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 24.7N 114.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/0000Z 24.4N 115.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/1200Z 23.6N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0000Z 22.7N 117.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/1200Z 21.7N 118.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0000Z 21.0N 120.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0000Z 20.6N 121.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 110239
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Olaf Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
900 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021

...OLAF WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 113.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued all Tropical Storm
Warnings for Baja California Sur Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Olaf was
located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 113.3 West. The
depression is now moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
turn toward the southwest is expected by Saturday night, with this
motion continuing into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next
couple of days, and Olaf is forecast to degenerate to a
post-tropical remnant low tomorrow morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Olaf will affect portions of the coasts
of Nayarit and Sinaloa through this evening, and portions of the
west coast of Baja California Sur through tomorrow. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 110238
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021
0300 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 113.3W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 113.3W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 113.0W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.7N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.4N 115.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.6N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.7N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.7N 118.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.0N 120.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 20.6N 121.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 113.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 102352
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
600 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021

...OLAF CONTINUES WEAKENING AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 113.0W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Puerto San Andresito southward to
Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected or occurring somewhere within the tropical storm warning
area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was
located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 113.0 West. Olaf is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the west is expected tonight and Saturday, followed by a
southwestward motion beginning on Saturday night and continuing into
early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will
continue moving away from the southwestern coast of Baja California
Sur tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next
couple of days, and Olaf is forecast to degenerate to a
post-tropical remnant low tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.61 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within portions of
the tropical storm warning area, but are expected to subside during
the next several hours.

RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches
of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions of
southern Baja California Sur through tonight. This rainfall may
trigger life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in
regions of onshore winds within the warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Olaf will affect portions of the coasts
of Nayarit and Sinaloa through this evening, and portions of the
west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 102045
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Olaf Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
300 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021

The low-level center of Olaf is completely exposed in visible
satellite imagery this afternoon. The system has been devoid of
organized convection since around 1200 UTC, and Olaf is at risk of
losing its status as a tropical cyclone overnight if it is unable to
generate new convection within the next 12 h. Despite its lack of
convection, a weather station at Puerto Cortes measured sustained
tropical-storm-force winds several hours ago as the center of Olaf
passed very near the observation site, and it has more recently
reported several tropical-storm-force gusts. The initial intensity
is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory based on the aforementioned
surface observations and T2.5/35 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and SAB.

Olaf has rapidly weakened today, and this weakening trend is
expected to continue during the next couple of days. The cyclone
will be moving over sub-26 deg C sea-surface temperatures and into a
drier, more stable environment that should largely suppress new
convective development. Model simulated satellite imagery from the
GFS and ECMWF indicate that Olaf will struggle to produce any new
convection by tomorrow, and the intensity guidance consensus favors
continued weakening as the vortex spins down. The official NHC
intensity forecast shows Olaf becoming a 25-kt remnant low by 24 h.
The remnant low is forecast to linger around for several days after,
but remain weak as it moves over the open waters of the eastern
Pacific.

The tropical storm has begun moving more westward away from Baja
California Sur, and its initial motion is estimated to be
west-northwest (295 degrees) at 9 kt. A mid-level ridge building to
the north of Olaf should steer the cyclone westward tonight into
Saturday. By late Saturday, the shallow cyclone will begin moving
southwestward as it is steered around a low-level ridge to its
northwest. The official NHC track forecast lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope, closest to the multi-model consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Olaf is moving away from the Baja California peninsula, and
lingering tropical storm conditions along portions of the
southwestern coast of Baja California Sur are forecast to diminish
this evening.

2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are expected across portions of
southern Baja California Sur through tonight. This rainfall may
trigger life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 24.6N 112.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 24.8N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 24.7N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0600Z 24.2N 115.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1800Z 23.3N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0600Z 22.3N 118.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/1800Z 21.4N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1800Z 20.8N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1800Z 20.5N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 102045
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Olaf Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
300 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021

...OLAF WEAKENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 112.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Baja California Sur Mexico south of Santa Fe and
around the peninsula to Loreto.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Puerto San Andresito southward to
Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected or occurring somewhere within the tropical storm warning
area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 112.7 West. Olaf is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the west is expected tonight and Saturday, followed by a
southwestward motion beginning on Saturday night and continuing into
early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will
move away from the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next
couple of days, and Olaf is forecast to degenerate to a
post-tropical remnant low on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center. A weather station at Puerto Cortes reported a
wind gust of 38 mph (61 km/h) during the past couple of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within portions of
the tropical storm warning area, but are expected to subside during
the next several hours.

RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches
of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions of
southern Baja California Sur through tonight. This rainfall may
trigger life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in
regions of onshore winds within the warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Olaf will affect portions of the coasts
of Nayarit and Sinaloa through this evening, and portions of the
west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 102043
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021
2100 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO SOUTH OF SANTA FE AND
AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LORETO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO SOUTHWARD TO
SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 112.7W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 112.7W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 112.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.8N 113.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.7N 114.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.2N 115.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.3N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.3N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.4N 119.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 20.8N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 20.5N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 112.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 11/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 101753
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
1200 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED AT PUERTO CORTES...
...OLAF EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 112.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Puerto San Andresito southward
and around the peninsula to Loreto

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected or occurring somewhere within the tropical storm warning
area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was
located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 112.2 West. Olaf is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward
the west at a slower forward speed is expected tonight, followed by
a turn toward the southwest on Saturday night and Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of Olaf will move away from the
southwestern coast of Baja California Sur tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next
couple of days, and Olaf is forecast to degenerate to a
post-tropical cyclone on Saturday and weaken to a remnant low on
Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center. A weather station at Puerto Cortes recently
measured a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust to 53 mph
(85 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). A
weather station at Puerto Cortes recently measured a pressure of
1000.4 mb (29.54 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within portions of
the tropical storm warning area. Tropical storm conditions should
end over Baja California Sur by tonight.

RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5
to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of
southern Baja California Sur through today. This rainfall may
trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
in regions of onshore winds within the warning area. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts
of Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 101603

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 10.09.2021

HURRICANE LARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 38.9N 61.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2021 0 38.9N 61.6W 964 77
0000UTC 11.09.2021 12 45.1N 56.7W 958 81
1200UTC 11.09.2021 24 52.3N 49.0W 973 49
0000UTC 12.09.2021 36 POST-TROPICAL

HURRICANE OLAF ANALYSED POSITION : 23.9N 111.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2021 0 23.9N 111.1W 977 62
0000UTC 11.09.2021 12 24.7N 112.7W 989 51
1200UTC 11.09.2021 24 24.8N 113.7W 999 35
0000UTC 12.09.2021 36 24.5N 114.9W 1003 30
1200UTC 12.09.2021 48 23.8N 115.8W 1005 25
0000UTC 13.09.2021 60 23.1N 117.0W 1006 22
1200UTC 13.09.2021 72 22.2N 118.5W 1008 21
0000UTC 14.09.2021 84 21.7N 119.4W 1008 20
1200UTC 14.09.2021 96 21.4N 120.9W 1009 19
0000UTC 15.09.2021 108 20.9N 121.8W 1009 19
1200UTC 15.09.2021 120 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 33.2N 71.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2021 0 33.2N 71.9W 1007 26
0000UTC 11.09.2021 12 34.4N 67.8W 1010 24
1200UTC 11.09.2021 24 35.0N 64.7W 1015 26
0000UTC 12.09.2021 36 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 101602

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 101450
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Olaf Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021

The satellite presentation of Olaf has significantly degraded over
the past several hours after the center moved across the southern
portion of Baja California Sur overnight. The system's organized
convection has collapsed, and infrared satellite imagery indicates
cloud top temperatures are rapidly warming near the estimated center
position. The initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt for this
advisory, which now makes Olaf a tropical storm. This estimate may
still be generous, but limited surface observations and radar data
make it difficult to confidently assess the intensity. Hopefully,
scatterometer data this afternoon will provide more insight into
changes in Olaf's surface wind field.

The tropical storm has slowed down a bit since last night, and its
estimated motion is northwest (310 degrees) at 9 kt. Recent
microwave imagery suggests the center of Olaf is just offshore the
southwestern coast of Baja California Sur, and the cyclone is likely
to move roughly parallel to the coast today. Then, a strong
mid-level high pressure ridge centered over the southern Rockies is
expected to build westward to the north of Olaf. This ridge should
turn Olaf toward the west by tonight, and then toward the southwest
through early next week. The official NHC track forecast has been
adjusted to the south of the previous forecast once again, in
agreement with the latest multi-model consensus aids.

Olaf is likely to continue rapidly weakening during the next couple
of days. In the short-term, its proximity to the mountainous terrain
of the Baja California peninsula will disrupt its ability to sustain
organized convection. As Olaf moves away from land, the cyclone will
encounter decreasing sea-surface temperatures and very dry mid-level
air, which should expedite its transition into a post-tropical
cyclone. In fact, the latest GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite
imagery show Olaf becoming completely devoid of convection within
the next 24-36 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows more rapid
weakening than the previous one, primarily based on recent satellite
trends and the lower initial intensity. The official forecast
remains below the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids, which are inflated
by the SHIPS and LGEM models that fail to weaken Olaf during the
next 24 h.


Key Messages:

1. Olaf is forecast to move along the southwestern coast of the
Baja California peninsula today, with tropical storm conditions
continuing over southern portions of Baja California Sur through
this evening. These winds should diminish tonight as Olaf continues
weakening and turns westward away from land.

2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are expected across portions of
southern Baja California Sur through today. This will pose a threat
of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 24.1N 111.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 24.5N 112.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 24.6N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 24.3N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 12/1200Z 23.4N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0000Z 22.4N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/1200Z 21.6N 118.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1200Z 20.7N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1200Z 20.0N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 101448
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Olaf Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021

...TROPICAL STORM OLAF BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 111.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM W OF LA PAZ MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning to a
Tropical Storm Warning for Baja California Sur Mexico from Todos
Santos to Cabo San Lazaro.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Puerto San Andresito southward
and around the peninsula to Loreto

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected or occurring somewhere within the tropical storm warning
area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was
located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 111.3 West. Olaf is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward
the west at a slower forward speed is expected tonight, followed by
a turn toward the southwest on Saturday night and Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of Olaf will move along the southwestern
coast of Baja California Sur today and then move westward away from
land by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next
couple of days, and Olaf is forecast to degenerate to a
post-tropical cyclone on Saturday and weaken to a remnant low on
Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within portions of
the tropical storm warning area and will spread northward across
central portions of Baja California Sur today. Tropical storm
conditions should end over Baja California Sur by tonight.

RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5
to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of
southern Baja California Sur through today. This rainfall may
trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
in regions of onshore winds within the warning area. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts
of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will
spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through
Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 101447
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021
1500 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM TODOS
SANTOS TO CABO SAN LAZARO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO SOUTHWARD
AND AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LORETO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 111.3W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 45SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 111.3W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 110.9W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.5N 112.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.6N 113.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.3N 114.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.4N 115.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.4N 117.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.6N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 20.7N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 20.0N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 111.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 10/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART



>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 101148
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
600 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021

...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 110.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WSW OF LA PAZ MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San
Andresito
* Baja California Sur Mexico south of Todos Santos
* Baja California Sur Mexico south of Loreto

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the hurricane warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Olaf.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located
near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 110.8 West. Olaf is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today. A turn toward the west at a slower
forward speed is forecast on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the
southwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will
move along the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur today and
then turn westward away from land by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Olaf is forecast to remain a hurricane while it
moves along the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur today. It
is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by tonight when it begins
to move away from land and then degenerate to a post-tropical
cyclone by Saturday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within portions of the
hurricane warning area and will spread northward along the west
coast of Baja California Sur today. Tropical storm conditions are
occurring within portions of the tropical storm warning area and
will spread northward across central portions of Baja California
Sur today. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions should end over
Baja California Sur by tonight.

RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5
to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of
southern Baja California Sur through today. This rainfall may
trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding within the warning areas in regions of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging
waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts
of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will
spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through
Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 100843
TCDEP5

Hurricane Olaf Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
300 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021

Olaf made landfall very near San Jose del Cabo, Baja California
Sur, around 0300 UTC based on radar images from Los Cabos and
surface pressure reports from the region. Since then, the radar
data showed that the center crossed the peninsula and re-emerged
just off the southwestern coast a few hours ago with heavy
rainbands continuing to stream northward across the area between
Cabo San Lucas and La Paz. Assuming some weakening over land, the
initial intensity is set at 75 kt, which matches the latest Dvorak
Current Intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The hurricane continues to move toward the northwest but has turned
more to the left, or 315/11 kt. A strong mid-level high centered
over the southern Rockies is forecast to build westward over the
Pacific during the next few days, which should cause Olaf to turn
westward by 36 hours and then southwestward by 60 hours until the
end of the forecast period. On this track, Olaf will move along
the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur for the next 12-18
hours but then turn westward away from land by tonight. This part
of the forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory. There is
some disagreement among the models on how far south Olaf will move
on days 3 through 5 (as a remnant low), and the new NHC forecast
has been nudged southward at those times toward the GFS, ECMWF, and
HCCA model solutions.

Olaf's proximity to the mountainous terrain of the Baja California
peninsula during the next 12 to 18 hours will likely cause
additional steady weakening, and the winds are forecast to fall
below hurricane force by this evening. The storm will then move
over waters colder than 26 degrees Celsius when it turns west of
Cabo San Lazaro tonight, which should spur additional weakening.
The SHIPS and LGEM models appear to be keeping Olaf's winds too
high for the next day or so, and as a result the NHC intensity
forecast is set below the HCCA consensus aid, closer to the GFS
and ECMWF intensity trends. In fact, model-simulated satellite
imagery suggests that the cold water could cause all of Olaf's deep
convection to dissipate in 36-48 hours, and the cyclone is therefore
forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone by Saturday night.


Key Messages:

1. Olaf is forecast to move along the southwestern coast of the
Baja California peninsula today, with hurricane and tropical storm
conditions continuing over southern portions of Baja California Sur
through this evening. These winds should diminish tonight once
Olaf weakens and turns westward away from land.

2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are expected across portions of
southern Baja California Sur today. This will pose a threat of
significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 23.7N 110.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
12H 10/1800Z 24.4N 111.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
24H 11/0600Z 24.7N 113.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 24.5N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 23.9N 115.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 12/1800Z 23.0N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0600Z 22.1N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/0600Z 21.0N 120.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0600Z 20.5N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 100843
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Olaf Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
300 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021

...OLAF STRADDLING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 110.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SW OF LA PAZ MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning to a
Tropical Storm Warning south of Todos Santos and south of Los
Barriles.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San
Andresito
* Baja California Sur Mexico south of Todos Santos
* Baja California Sur Mexico south of Loreto

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the hurricane warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Olaf.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located
near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 110.7 West. Olaf is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today. A turn toward the west at a slower
forward speed is forecast on Saturday, followed by a turn toward
the southwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf
will move along the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur today
and then turn westward away from land by tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Olaf is forecast to remain a hurricane while it
moves along the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur today.
It is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by tonight when it
begins to move away from land and then degenerate to a
post-tropical cyclone by Saturday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occurring within
southern portions of their respective warning areas and will spread
northward across portions of Baja California Sur today. Hurricane
and tropical storm conditions should end over Baja California Sur
by tonight.

RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5
to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of
southern Baja California Sur through today. This rainfall may
trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding within the warning areas in regions of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts
of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will
spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through
Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 100842
TCMEP5

HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021
0900 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF TODOS SANTOS AND SOUTH OF LOS
BARRILES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM TODOS SANTOS TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO SOUTH OF TODOS SANTOS
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO SOUTH OF LORETO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF OLAF.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 110.7W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 110.7W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 110.3W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.4N 111.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.7N 113.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.5N 114.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.9N 115.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.0N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.1N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 21.0N 120.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 20.5N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 110.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 10/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 100551
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
1200 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021

...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FROM OLAF CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 110.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSE OF LA PAZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Cabo San Lazaro.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San
Andresito
* Baja California Sur Mexico north of Los Barriles to Loreto

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the hurricane warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Olaf.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located
near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 110.2 West. Olaf is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west is expected
tonight, followed by a turn toward the southwest by Saturday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move along the
southwestern coast of Baja California Sur today. The hurricane
will begin to move westward away from land tonight or early
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional gradual weakening is expected today
as Olaf interacts with land. Further weakening is likely over the
weekend after Olaf moves away from Baja California Sur.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane
warning area and will continue to spread northward today. Tropical
storm conditions are also occuring over portions of Baja California
Sur and will spread northward within the tropical storm warning
area today.

RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5
to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of
southern Baja California Sur through today. This rainfall may
trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding within the warning areas in regions of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts
of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will
spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through
Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ65 KNHC 100321
TCUEP5

Hurricane Olaf Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
920 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021

...OLAF MAKES LANDFALL VERY NEAR SAN JOSE DEL CABO MEXICO...

Radar data from the Mexican Meteorological Service site at Los
Cabos and surface pressure data from the region indicate that Olaf
made landfall very near San Jose del Cabo, Baja California Sur, at
around 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC). Maximum sustained winds were
estimated to be near 100 mph (155 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 920 PM MDT...0320 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 109.6W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF LA PAZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 100248
TCDEP5

Hurricane Olaf Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
900 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021

Imagery from the Mexican radar at Cabo San Lucas, along with
satellite imagery, indicates that the eye of Olaf is about to
make landfall near San Jose del Cabo, and that hurricane conditions
in the northwestern eyewall have already spread onshore. The
eyewall cloud tops have cooled during the past few hours, and the
objective intensity estimate from the CIMSS ADT technique has
increased to 90 kt. Based on this and an increase in the
organization of the eyewall on the Cabo radar imagery, the initial
intensity is increased to 85 kt.

The initial motion is 325/10. Olaf should continue moving
northwestward to north-northwestward for the next 12-24 h, with the
center moving near or over the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula during this time. After that, a mid-level
ridge extending westward from the southwestern United States should
cause Olaf to turn westward, and this should be followed by a
southwestward motion as the weakening cyclone becomes steered by
low-level northeasterly flow. The forecast guidance has changed
little since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track has
only minor adjustments from the previous forecast.

A gradual weakening is expected during the first 24 h as Olaf
interacts with the Baja California peninsula. When the cyclone
turns westward after 24 h, it should move over colder water and
into a drier air mass. This combination should cause the
convection to decay, with the system becoming a post-tropical low
by 60 h and a remnant low by 72 h. The new intensity forecast has
some minor changes from the previous forecast, and it lies in the
middle of the intensity guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Olaf is forecast to move very near or over the southern portion
of Baja California Sur tonight and Friday. Hurricane conditions
have begun within the southern portion of the hurricane warning
area tonight and will spread northward through Friday.

2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are expected across portions of
southern Baja California Sur through Friday. This will pose a threat
of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 23.0N 109.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 23.9N 110.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
24H 11/0000Z 24.6N 112.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 11/1200Z 24.8N 113.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 24.4N 114.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 23.7N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 13/0000Z 23.0N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/0000Z 21.6N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0000Z 21.0N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 100247
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Olaf Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
900 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021

...EYE OF OLAF ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL AT SAN JOSE DEL CABO MEXICO...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 109.6W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF LA PAZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Cabo San Lazaro.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San
Andresito
* Baja California Sur Mexico north of Los Barriles to Loreto

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the hurricane warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area within 36
hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Olaf.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located
near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 109.6 West. Olaf is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the
west is expected Friday night, followed by a turn toward the
southwest by Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center
of Olaf will move over the southern coast of the Baja California
peninsula during the next hour or so, and then move very near or
over southern Baja California Sur tonight and on Friday. The
hurricane will begin to move westward away from land late Friday or
early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected through
Friday as Olaf interacts with land. Further weakening is likely
over the weekend after Olaf moves away from Baja California Sur.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km). A weather station at Cabo San Lucas reported sustained
winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 84 mph (135 km/h) during the
past couple of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). A
Weatherflow station near San Jose del Cabo recently reported a
pressure of 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading across the coast within
the hurricane warning area at this time and should continue to
spread northward through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
also occuring over portions of Baja California Sur and will spread
northward during the next several hours, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern
portions of the tropical storm warning area Friday night.

RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5
to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of
southern Baja California Sur through Friday. This rainfall may
trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding within the warning areas in regions of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts
of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will
spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through
Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 100247
TCMEP5

HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021
0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO CABO SAN LAZARO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO LORETO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF OLAF.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 109.6W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 109.6W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 109.3W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.9N 110.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.6N 112.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.8N 113.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.4N 114.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.7N 115.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.0N 117.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 21.6N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 21.0N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 109.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 10/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 092337
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
600 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021

...EYEWALL OF OLAF NEARING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 109.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Cabo San Lazaro.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San
Andresito
* Baja California Sur Mexico north of Los Barriles to Loreto

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the hurricane warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area within 36
hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Olaf.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located
near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 109.3 West. Olaf is moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slight turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight, and Olaf is forecast to
continue moving toward the northwest on Friday. A turn toward the
west is expected over the weekend. On the forecast track, the center
of Olaf will move near or over the southern coast of the Baja
California peninsula during the next few hours, and then move very
near or over southern Baja California Sur tonight and on Friday. The
hurricane will begin to move westward away from land late Friday or
early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is possible before the hurricane reaches the
coast tonight. Weakening is expected on Friday after Olaf begins to
interact with land. Further weakening is likely over the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area in the next few hours and then spread
northward through Friday. Tropical Storm conditions are occuring
near the southern coast of Baja California Sur and will spread
northward during the next several hours, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern
portions of the tropical storm warning area Friday night.

RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5
to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of
southern Baja California Sur through Friday. This rainfall may
trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding within the warning areas in regions of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts
of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will
spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through
Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 092046
TCDEP5

Hurricane Olaf Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021

Olaf is quickly strengthening. An eye is now apparent in visible and
satellite imagery. For most of the morning and early afternoon, a
large and very symmetric eyewall was also apparent in radar data
from Cabo San Lucas. Dvorak intensity estimates at 1800 UTC were
4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB at 1800 UTC, and estimates from the
U-W CIMSS ADT have increased to 80 kt since then. The initial
intensity has been set at 80 kt, in close agreement with all
available estimates.

Olaf has moved consistently to the right of the forecast track for
the past 12 hours, and the NHC track forecast has been shifted in
that direction again. Olaf is now forecast to move very near or over
southern Baja California Sur tonight. Regardless of the hurricane's
exact track, it is very likely that a portions of southern Baja
California Sur will get direct impacts from the eyewall of Olaf
tonight. A large ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is still
expected to cause Olaf to make a slight turn toward the northwest
tonight or early Friday. The hurricane should then make a westward
turn by early Saturday as it weakens and the ridge extends westward.
Despite the recent adjustments required to the NHC forecast, this
forecast is still generally supported by all of the
typically-reliable track guidance. By around 60 h, Olaf will likely
have lost all of its deep convection and become a shallow
post-tropical low, steered primarily southwestward by low-level
flow.

The environment should support additional intensification during the
next 12 h as Olaf approaches the Baja California peninsula, so any
fluctuations in intensity will likely be driven by internal dynamics
at this point. The appearance of Olaf's eyewall in radar imagery has
degraded a little during the past couple of hours, but it is
possible this is due to attenuation of the radar signal and not
fully representative of the hurricane's structure. Regardless, Olaf
should begin to weaken once it interacts with land or moves inland.
By late Friday, the rate of weakening is forecast to increase due to
a combination of continued land interactions and cool sea surface
temperatures. Olaf should quickly weaken over the weekend as it
continues to move over cold water, and it will likely become a
post-tropical cyclone on Sunday. The NHC intensity forecast is above
the consensus at 12 h to allow for additional short-term
strengthening, but follows the consensus closely at 36 h and beyond.

Key Messages:

1. Olaf is forecast to move very near or over the southern portion
of Baja California Sur tonight and Friday. Hurricane conditions
are expected to begin within the southern portion of the hurricane
warning area tonight and will spread northward through Friday.

2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are expected across portions of
southern Baja California Sur through Friday. This will pose a threat
of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 22.2N 108.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 23.1N 110.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/1800Z 24.2N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 11/0600Z 24.6N 112.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 24.5N 114.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 23.9N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 12/1800Z 23.2N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1800Z 22.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1800Z 21.5N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 092045
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Olaf Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021

...EYEWALL OF OLAF NEARING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...
...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO CABO SAN LAZARO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 108.9W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Warning
from north of Sante Fe to Cabo San Lazaro to a Hurricane Warning.
The government of Mexico has also issued a Tropical Storm Warning
from north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito and from San
Evaristo to Loreto.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Cabo San Lazaro.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San
Andresito
* Baja California Sur Mexico north of Los Barriles to Loreto

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the hurricane warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area within 36
hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Olaf.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located
near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 108.9 West. Olaf is moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slight turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight, and Olaf is forecast to
continue moving toward the northwest on Friday. A turn toward the
west is expected over the weekend. On the forecast track, the
center of Olaf will approach the southern coast of the Baja
California peninsula during the next several hours, and then move
very near or over southern Baja California Sur tonight and on
Friday. The hurricane will begin to move westward away from land
late Friday or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is possible before the
hurricane nears the coast tonight. Weakening is expected on Friday
after Olaf begins to interact with land. Further weakening is likely
over the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area late this afternoon or this evening and
will spread northward through Friday. Tropical Storm conditions are
occuring near the southern coast of Baja California Sur and will
spread northward during the next several hours, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern
portions of the tropical storm warning area Friday night.

RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5
to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of
southern Baja California Sur through Friday. This rainfall may
trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding within the warning areas in regions of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts
of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will
spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through
Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 092044
TCMEP5

HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021
2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM NORTH OF SANTE FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO TO A HURRICANE WARNING.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO AND FROM SAN
EVARISTO TO LORETO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO CABO SAN LAZARO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO LORETO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF OLAF.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 108.9W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 108.9W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 108.6W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.1N 110.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.2N 111.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.6N 112.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.5N 114.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.9N 115.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.2N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 22.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 21.5N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 108.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 10/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 091752
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
1200 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021

...STRENGTHENING OLAF EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 108.6W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico north of Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro
* Baja California Sur Mexico north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the hurricane warning area, in this case within
the next 24 to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area within 36
hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Olaf.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located
by visible satellite imagery and radar data from Cabo San Lucas
near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 108.6 West. Olaf is moving
toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is forecast by tonight, followed by a slower westward
motion Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center
of Olaf will approach southern Baja California Sur today, move near
or over the southern part of the peninsula this evening and on
Friday, and then move westward away from land Friday night and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely before
the eyewall of Olaf nears the southern coast of the Baja California
peninsula this afternoon and evening. Weakening is likely on
Friday and through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area late this afternoon or this evening.
Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength within the
next hour or so, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern
portions of the tropical storm warning area tonight and will spread
northward within the warning area on Friday.

RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5
to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of
southern Baja California Sur through Friday. This rainfall may
trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding within the warning areas in regions of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts
of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will
spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through
Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 091601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 09.09.2021

HURRICANE LARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 31.3N 61.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2021 0 31.3N 61.6W 967 71
0000UTC 10.09.2021 12 34.2N 62.6W 961 78
1200UTC 10.09.2021 24 38.6N 61.6W 956 83
0000UTC 11.09.2021 36 44.5N 56.9W 947 89
1200UTC 11.09.2021 48 51.4N 48.3W 972 52
0000UTC 12.09.2021 60 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY ANALYSED POSITION : 31.1N 81.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2021 0 31.1N 81.8W 1008 27
0000UTC 10.09.2021 12 32.3N 76.9W 1006 29
1200UTC 10.09.2021 24 33.1N 72.4W 1008 26
0000UTC 11.09.2021 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM OLAF ANALYSED POSITION : 21.1N 108.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2021 0 21.1N 108.1W 992 46
0000UTC 10.09.2021 12 22.5N 109.5W 987 56
1200UTC 10.09.2021 24 23.5N 111.4W 993 47
0000UTC 11.09.2021 36 24.1N 113.0W 997 41
1200UTC 11.09.2021 48 24.2N 114.2W 1003 30
0000UTC 12.09.2021 60 24.0N 115.1W 1005 26
1200UTC 12.09.2021 72 23.6N 116.1W 1007 21
0000UTC 13.09.2021 84 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 40.2N 4.4E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2021 0 40.2N 4.4E 1009 25
0000UTC 10.09.2021 12 40.3N 5.0E 1010 22
1200UTC 10.09.2021 24 40.5N 6.0E 1011 24
0000UTC 11.09.2021 36 40.3N 10.1E 1011 26
1200UTC 11.09.2021 48 39.2N 12.4E 1007 31
0000UTC 12.09.2021 60 37.0N 16.2E 1006 32
1200UTC 12.09.2021 72 36.6N 19.4E 1003 39
0000UTC 13.09.2021 84 34.6N 22.5E 1005 30
1200UTC 13.09.2021 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 16.4N 18.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.09.2021 48 16.4N 18.1W 1005 31
0000UTC 12.09.2021 60 16.7N 21.2W 1006 26
1200UTC 12.09.2021 72 17.5N 22.7W 1004 32
0000UTC 13.09.2021 84 18.7N 24.0W 1004 31
1200UTC 13.09.2021 96 20.3N 24.2W 1004 30
0000UTC 14.09.2021 108 21.9N 23.9W 1005 31
1200UTC 14.09.2021 120 23.3N 23.5W 1008 27
0000UTC 15.09.2021 132 24.1N 23.4W 1011 26
1200UTC 15.09.2021 144 23.9N 23.9W 1014 23

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 10.9N 88.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2021 144 10.9N 88.1W 1007 22


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091601

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 091601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.09.2021

HURRICANE LARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 31.3N 61.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.09.2021 31.3N 61.6W STRONG
00UTC 10.09.2021 34.2N 62.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.09.2021 38.6N 61.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2021 44.5N 56.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2021 51.4N 48.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 12.09.2021 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY ANALYSED POSITION : 31.1N 81.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.09.2021 31.1N 81.8W WEAK
00UTC 10.09.2021 32.3N 76.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2021 33.1N 72.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM OLAF ANALYSED POSITION : 21.1N 108.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.09.2021 21.1N 108.1W MODERATE
00UTC 10.09.2021 22.5N 109.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.09.2021 23.5N 111.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2021 24.1N 113.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2021 24.2N 114.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2021 24.0N 115.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2021 23.6N 116.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 40.2N 4.4E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.09.2021 40.2N 4.4E WEAK
00UTC 10.09.2021 40.3N 5.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2021 40.5N 6.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2021 40.3N 10.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2021 39.2N 12.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2021 37.0N 16.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2021 36.6N 19.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2021 34.6N 22.5E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 16.4N 18.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.09.2021 16.4N 18.1W WEAK
00UTC 12.09.2021 16.7N 21.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2021 17.5N 22.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2021 18.7N 24.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2021 20.3N 24.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2021 21.9N 23.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2021 23.3N 23.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2021 24.1N 23.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2021 23.9N 23.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 10.9N 88.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.09.2021 10.9N 88.1W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091601

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 091451
TCDEP5

Hurricane Olaf Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
900 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021

Recent microwave imagery shows that Olaf's structure has improved
considerably during the past 6 hours, and it now has well-defined
eye. The eye is also now evident in radar imagery from Cabo San
Lucas. Although an eye is not yet evident in infrared or visible
imagery, satellite intensity estimates had increased and supported
an intensity of 60-65 kt at 1200 UTC. Given the continued
impressive satellite appearance since then, the estimated intensity
is 65 kt for this advisory, making Olaf a hurricane.

Olaf has a microwave ring structure that is known to indicate
intensification in the short term. The wind shear that previously
affected the hurricane seems to have lessened and the environment
should also support further strengthening today. The hurricane is
therefore forecast to quickly intensify during the next 12 h or so
while it approaches the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. After that, interaction with land and cold sea surface
temperatures should cause the cyclone to quickly weaken over the
weekend. Olaf is forecast to become post-tropical in about 60 h as
it moves farther away from land. The NHC intensity forecast is
above the previous advisory, and is above most of the guidance
through 24 h. Beyond that, there have been only slight adjustments
to the official intensity forecast, which is based on the multi-
model consensus.

The track forecast has shifted closer to the southern Baja
California peninsula. In line with the intensity forecast, the NHC
forecast now slightly favors the stronger GFS and regional hurricane
models, compared to the weaker ECMWF, but is still near the HCCA and
TVCN consensus aids. Olaf is moving north-northeast but should turn
northwestward later today, steered by a mid-level ridge centered
over the western United States. The models with a stronger hurricane
show Olaf turning slightly slower, and bring the center very near or
even over Baja California Sur tonight. As Olaf weakens it should
begin to be steered by lower-level flow, which will cause it to
eventually turn westward and then southwestward as it moves away
from land early next week.

Key Messages:

1. Olaf is forecast to pass very near or over the southern portion
of Baja California Sur tonight and Friday, and hurricane conditions
are likely within the hurricane warning area tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area
this afternoon, and preparations should be rushed to completion.

2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are expected across portions of
southern Baja California Sur through Friday. This will pose a threat
of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 21.2N 108.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 22.2N 109.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 23.3N 110.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 24.0N 112.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 24.1N 113.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 23.8N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 12/1200Z 23.2N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1200Z 21.5N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1200Z 21.0N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 091450
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Olaf Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
900 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021

...OLAF BECOMES A HURRICANE WITH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING LIKELY
TODAY...
...PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 108.3W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico north of Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro
* Baja California Sur Mexico north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the hurricane warning area, in this case within
the next 24 to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area within 36
hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Olaf.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located
near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 108.3 West. Olaf is moving
toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is forecast by tonight, followed by a slower westward
motion Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center
of Olaf will approach southern Baja California Sur today, move near
or over the southern part of the peninsula tonight and on Friday,
and then move westward away from land Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely before Olaf
nears the southern coast of the Baja California peninsula tonight.
Weakening is likely on Friday and through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area tonight. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength by this afternoon or this evening,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern
portions of the tropical storm warning area tonight and will spread
northward within the warning area on Friday.

RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 3
to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of far
southern Baja California Sur today through Friday. This rainfall
may trigger flash flooding and mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding within the warning areas in regions of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are beginning to reach portions of
the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa,
and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California
Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 091450
TCMEP5

HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021
1500 UTC THU SEP 09 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO SAN EVARISTO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF OLAF.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 108.3W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 108.3W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 108.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.2N 109.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.3N 110.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.0N 112.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.1N 113.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.8N 114.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.2N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 21.5N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 21.0N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 108.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 09/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY



>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 091148
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
600 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021

...OLAF WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 108.1W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico north of Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro
* Baja California Sur Mexico north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the hurricane warning area, in this case within
the next 24 to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area within 36
hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Olaf.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was
located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 108.1 West. Olaf is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest
is forecast by tonight, followed by a slower westward motion Friday
night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will
approach southern Baja California Sur today, move near or over the
southern part of the peninsula tonight and on Friday, and then move
westward away from land Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Olaf
is expected to become a hurricane later today. Weakening is
forecast to start on Friday when Olaf begins to move away from Baja
California Sur.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Olaf can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area tonight. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength by this afternoon or this evening,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin in southern portions of the
tropical storm warning area tonight and will spread northward
within the warning area on Friday.

RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 3
to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of
far southern Baja California Sur today through Friday. This
rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding within the warnings areas in regions of onshore
winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are beginning to reach portions of
the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa,
and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California
Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 090855
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Olaf Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
300 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021

Olaf's convective canopy has been expanding somewhat and become a
little more circular since last evening with clouds tops as cold as
-80 degrees Celsius. Dvorak estimates have bounced up to T3.5 from
TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT, and Olaf's maximum winds are
therefore now estimated to be 55 kt. Recent scatterometer data also
indicated that the tropical-storm-force wind field is a little
bigger than previously estimated.

Also with the help of the scatterometer data, Olaf's center appears
to have tracked a bit to the east, and the initial motion is
estimated to be north-northwestward, or 340/5 kt. This has been
the recent trend over the past day or so, with the motion having
a more northward component than anticipated--but not surprising
given what previous GFS model runs have been suggesting. A strong
mid-level high over the western United States is expected to
eventually force Olaf toward the northwest and then west, but
probably not soon enough to avoid impacts on the southern Baja
California peninsula. Mostly due to the adjusted initial position,
the track models--and the NHC official forecast--have again shifted
closer to the southern tip of the peninsula, with a closest approach
in about 24 hours. This updated forecast is very close to the HCCA
consensus aid and would be close enough for the core of the storm to
at least graze land. It's also concerning that the GFS, HMON, and
COAMPS-TC models are still to the right of the official forecast and
the other models and show Olaf's center potentially moving over the
southern tip of the peninsula in about 24 hours. Olaf should
finally begin to move westward away from the peninsula in about 48
hours.

Although satellite images and model analyses suggest that some
moderate westerly shear is undercutting the outflow layer, Olaf has
been able to strengthen nonetheless. If Olaf's center does not
move over the Baja California peninsula, the storm will have the
opportunity to strengthen for another 24-36 hours while ocean
waters are warm and deep-layer shear is low. Therefore, the new
NHC intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance
envelope and shows Olaf becoming a hurricane later today. Further
strengthening beyond what's shown in the official forecast is
possible, with rapid intensification indices now close to a 50
percent chance of a 25-kt increase in winds over the next 24 hours.
By 48 hours, colder waters should cause Olaf's convection to
decrease, and global models suggest it could degenerate to a
convection-less post-tropical low by day 3.

The updated track and intensity forecasts have necessitated the
issuance of a Hurricane Warning by the government of Mexico for
southern portions of Baja California Sur, and an extension of
Tropical Storm Warnings northward along both east and west coasts
of the peninsula.


Key Messages:

1. Olaf is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane later today and
then pass very near or over the southern portion of Baja California
Sur tonight and on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
to begin within the hurricane warning area this afternoon, and
preparations should therefore be rushed to completion this morning.

2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are possible across portions of
far southern Baja California Sur today through Friday. This will
pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 20.5N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 21.4N 108.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 22.6N 110.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 23.5N 111.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 23.7N 113.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 23.1N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 13/0600Z 22.1N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0600Z 21.3N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 090853
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Olaf Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
300 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021

...OLAF STILL STRENGTHENING AND FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE
LATER TODAY...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 108.0W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for Baja
California Sur from Los Barriles to Santa Fe. A Tropical Storm
Warning has been issued north of Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro and
north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico north of Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro
* Baja California Sur Mexico north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the hurricane warning area, in this case within
the next 24 to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area within 36
hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Olaf.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 108.0 West. Olaf is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest
is forecast by tonight, followed by a slower westward motion Friday
night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will
approach southern Baja California Sur today, move near or over the
southern part of the peninsula tonight and on Friday, and then move
westward away from land Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next day or so, and Olaf is expected to become a hurricane later
today. Weakening is forecast to start on Friday when Olaf begins
to move away from Baja California Sur.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Olaf can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area tonight. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength by this afternoon or this evening,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin in southern portions of the
tropical storm warning area tonight and will spread northward
within the warning area on Friday.

RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 3
to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of
far southern Baja California Sur today through Friday. This
rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
coastal flooding within the warnings areas in regions of onshore
wind. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are beginning to reach portions of
the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa,
and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California
Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 090853
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021
0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO AND
NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO SAN EVARISTO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO SAN EVARISTO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF OLAF.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 108.0W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 108.0W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 107.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.4N 108.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.6N 110.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.5N 111.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.7N 113.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.1N 115.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 22.1N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 21.3N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 108.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 09/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 090556
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
1200 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 108.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas to Todos Santos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Olaf.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was
located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 108.2 West. Olaf is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwest
to north-northwest motion along with an increase in forward speed is
expected through Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest is
forecast by Friday night, followed by a turn toward the west on
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move just
to the southwest of southern Baja California Sur tonight and on
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Olaf could be near hurricane strength by this evening or tonight.
The storm is expected to begin weakening on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Olaf can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO
header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in Baja California Sur tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in southern portions of the Tropical Storm
Warning area later this afternoon or evening and will spread
northward within the warning area tonight.

RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts
of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions
of far southern Baja California Sur today through Friday. This
rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Olaf is expected to generate swells that will affect portions
of the coasts of Baja California Sur and Sinaloa later today,
spreading northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur
through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 090237
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Olaf Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
900 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021

Olaf appears to be gradually strengthening. Deep convection has
been increasing over the center, and banding features are becoming a
little more pronounced. The latest Dvorak estimates range from 35
to 45 kt. Since the system appears to be better organized from
the time of the ASCAT pass earlier today, the initial intensity is
nudged up and set near the high end of the estimates at 45 kt.

Satellite images and recent microwave data suggest that the center
of Olaf is a little to the east of the previous track, and the
latest initial motion estimate is 335/6 kt. Olaf is expected to
move generally northwestward for another 24 to 36 hours, which
should bring the system just off the coast of southern Baja
California Sur during that time. There is some spread in the models
on how close the storm will get to the coastline, with the GFS to
the east of the official forecast and the UKMET and ECMWF to the
west and farther offshore. Beyond 36 hours, Olaf is expected to be
located to the south of a strong mid-level ridge and that will cause
a turn to the west-northwest away from Mexico. The NHC track
forecast is adjusted again to the east of the previous one in the
short term and then to the south of the previous one at the longer
lead times. The new track forecast lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope, near the various consensus aids.

Olaf is located over warm waters, and embedded in a low wind shear
and fairly moist environment. These conditions should allow for
additional strengthening during the next day or so. Although not
explicitly forecast, Olaf could become a hurricane when it is just
off the coast of southern Baja California Sur, and a hurricane
watch remains in effect for the possibility of those winds
occurring on land. By Friday, a combination of cooler waters and a
much drier environment should cause steady weakening, and the
system is likely to become a remnant low over the weekend. The NHC
intensity forecast lies close to the IVCN and IVDR consensus models.


Key Messages:

1. Olaf is forecast to strengthen to near hurricane intensity while
it passes offshore of the southern portion of Baja California Sur
Thursday and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and
hurricane conditions are possible across that area beginning late
Thursday. Interests there should continue to monitor the progress of
Olaf.

2. Heavy rains associated with Tropical Storm Olaf are possible
across portions of far southern Baja California Sur Thursday through
Friday. This will pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 20.0N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 20.8N 108.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 21.9N 109.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 22.8N 111.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 23.4N 113.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 23.5N 114.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 23.3N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 22.6N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0000Z 21.7N 121.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 090237
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Olaf Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
900 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021

...OLAF SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 108.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas to Todos Santos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Olaf.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 108.0 West. Olaf is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwest
to north-northwest motion along with an increase in forward speed
is expected through Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest is
forecast by Friday night, followed by a turn toward the west on
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move just
to the southwest of southern Baja California Sur on Thursday and
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
day or so, and Olaf could be near hurricane strength by late
Thursday. The storm is expected to begin weakening on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Olaf can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO
header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in Baja California Sur Thursday night. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Baja
California Sur by late Thursday or Thursday night.

RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts
of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions
of far southern Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This
rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Olaf is expected to generate swells that will affect portions
of the coasts of Baja California Sur and Sinaloa by Thursday,
spreading northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur
through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 090236
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021
0300 UTC THU SEP 09 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO TODOS SANTOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF OLAF. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 108.0W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 108.0W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 107.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.8N 108.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.9N 109.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.8N 111.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 23.4N 113.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 23.5N 114.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.3N 115.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 22.6N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 21.7N 121.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 108.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 09/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 082334
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
600 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021

...OLAF FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 107.7W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...425 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas to Todos Santos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 107.7 West. Olaf is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion
along with an increase in forward speed are expected through Friday.
A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Friday night,
followed by a turn toward the west on Saturday. On the forecast
track, the center of Olaf will move just to the southwest of
southern Baja California Sur on Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Olaf could be near hurricane strength by late Thursday. The storm
is expected to begin weakening on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Olaf can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO
header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in Baja California Sur Thursday night. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Baja
California Sur by late Thursday or Thursday night.

RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts
of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions
of far southern Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This
rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Olaf is expected to generate swells that will affect portions
of the coasts of Baja California Sur and Sinaloa by Thursday,
spreading northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur
through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 082047
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Olaf Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
300 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021

Olaf's appearance has remained steady today and the storm is
characterized by a large curved band that encompasses much of the
circulation. There is good outflow in all quadrants, indicative of a
low-shear environment. An earlier ASCAT pass sampled peak winds of
37 kt, and this data along with a blend of the latest Dvorak
T-numbers from TAFB and SAB indicate that the initial intensity is
around 40 kt.

The storm is forecast to remain over warm waters and in a moist
environment for the next 36 hours. Therefore, additional
strengthening is likely during that time period. In a couple of
days, the cyclone is forecast to begin moving over cooler waters,
and into a drier and a much more stable atmospheric environment.
This should result in rapid weakening, and Olaf is expected to
become a remnant low this weekend. The latest NHC intensity forecast
is little changed from the previous one, and continues to be in good
agreement with the IVCN intensity consensus aid. Although the NHC
forecast does not explicitly show Olaf becoming a hurricane, this
could still occur Thursday or Thursday night.

Olaf continues to move slowly northwestward, or 325/5 kt. A
mid-level ridge building over northern Mexico should help maintain
this heading for a couple of days with a gradual increase in forward
speed. By Friday night, Olaf is expected to turn west-northwestward
as it weakens, and by Saturday a westward motion is forecast when
the shallow cyclone is steered by the surrounding low-level flow.
The overall model guidance shifted slightly to the east through 48
hours, and thus the NHC track forecast was nudged in that direction
for that time frame. Because of this track shift, probabilities of
tropical storm and hurricane conditions have increased for southern
portions of Baja California Sur. Therefore, the government of
Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning
for portions of this area. After 48 h, the guidance has shifted a
little to the south, and the NHC forecast was tweaked in that
direction as well.

Key Messages:

1. Olaf is forecast to strengthen to near hurricane intensity while
it passes to the southwest of the southern portion of Baja
California Sur Thursday and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected and hurricane conditions are possible across that area
beginning late Thursday. Interests there should continue to monitor
the progress of Olaf.

2. Heavy rains associated with Tropical Storm Olaf are possible
across portions of far southern Baja California Sur Thursday through
Friday. This will pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 19.4N 107.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 20.2N 108.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 21.2N 109.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 22.3N 110.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 23.2N 112.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 23.5N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 23.5N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 23.1N 118.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1800Z 22.4N 120.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 082046
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Olaf Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
300 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021

...OLAF MOVING SLOWLY AND PARALLEL TO THE MEXICAN COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 107.7W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for Baja
California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to Todos Santos. A Tropical Storm
Warning has been issued from Los Barriles to Santa Fe.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas to Todos Santos

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be
required later tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 107.7 West. Olaf is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general
motion along with an increase in forward speed are expected through
Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Friday
night, followed by a turn toward the west on Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Olaf will move just to the southwest
of southern Baja California Sur on Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Olaf could be near hurricane strength by late Thursday. The storm is
expected to begin weakening on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Olaf can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO
header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in Baja California Sur Thursday night. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Baja
California Sur by late Thursday or Thursday night.

RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts
of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions
of far southern Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This
rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Olaf is expected to generate swells that will affect portions
of the coasts of Baja California Sur and Sinaloa by Thursday,
spreading northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur
through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 082046
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021
2100 UTC WED SEP 08 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO TODOS SANTOS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO TODOS SANTOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 107.7W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 107.7W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 107.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.2N 108.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.2N 109.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.3N 110.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.2N 112.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.5N 114.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 23.1N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 22.4N 120.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 107.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 09/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 081753
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
1200 PM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021

...OLAF STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 107.5W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be
required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 107.5 West. Olaf is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general
motion along with an increase in forward speed are expected through
Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Friday
night, followed by a turn toward the west on Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Olaf will move just to the southwest
of southern Baja California Sur on Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next day or so, and Olaf could be near hurricane strength by late
Thursday. The storm is expected to begin weakening on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (115 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Olaf can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO
header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Baja California Sur by late Thursday or Thursday night.

RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches across the southern
portions of Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This
rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Olaf is expected to generate swells that will affect portions
of the coasts of Baja California Sur and Sinaloa by Thursday,
spreading northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur
through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 081604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 08.09.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 27.8N 89.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2021 0 27.8N 89.0W 1012 19
0000UTC 09.09.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 27.2N 57.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2021 0 27.2N 57.9W 966 67
0000UTC 09.09.2021 12 29.2N 59.8W 966 79
1200UTC 09.09.2021 24 31.7N 61.6W 956 90
0000UTC 10.09.2021 36 34.9N 62.3W 948 85
1200UTC 10.09.2021 48 39.2N 61.1W 944 91
0000UTC 11.09.2021 60 45.0N 56.2W 943 89
1200UTC 11.09.2021 72 51.4N 47.6W 976 50
0000UTC 12.09.2021 84 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM OLAF ANALYSED POSITION : 18.4N 107.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2021 0 18.4N 107.3W 1005 28
0000UTC 09.09.2021 12 19.5N 108.0W 1002 30
1200UTC 09.09.2021 24 20.7N 108.8W 1001 36
0000UTC 10.09.2021 36 21.7N 110.0W 999 38
1200UTC 10.09.2021 48 22.7N 112.1W 1001 36
0000UTC 11.09.2021 60 23.1N 114.2W 1003 30
1200UTC 11.09.2021 72 23.1N 115.7W 1006 28
0000UTC 12.09.2021 84 22.5N 116.9W 1007 24
1200UTC 12.09.2021 96 21.8N 117.7W 1009 20
0000UTC 13.09.2021 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 15.5N 17.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.09.2021 72 15.5N 17.9W 1005 35
0000UTC 12.09.2021 84 16.3N 20.6W 1004 33
1200UTC 12.09.2021 96 16.8N 23.2W 1001 35
0000UTC 13.09.2021 108 18.0N 24.7W 1004 33
1200UTC 13.09.2021 120 19.1N 25.7W 1004 29
0000UTC 14.09.2021 132 20.8N 25.8W 1004 31
1200UTC 14.09.2021 144 22.5N 26.0W 1005 32


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 081603

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 081604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 08.09.2021

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 27.8N 89.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.09.2021 27.8N 89.0W WEAK
00UTC 09.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE LARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 27.2N 57.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.09.2021 27.2N 57.9W STRONG
00UTC 09.09.2021 29.2N 59.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2021 31.7N 61.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2021 34.9N 62.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.09.2021 39.2N 61.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2021 45.0N 56.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2021 51.4N 47.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 12.09.2021 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM OLAF ANALYSED POSITION : 18.4N 107.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152021

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.09.2021 18.4N 107.3W WEAK
00UTC 09.09.2021 19.5N 108.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2021 20.7N 108.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2021 21.7N 110.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2021 22.7N 112.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2021 23.1N 114.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2021 23.1N 115.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2021 22.5N 116.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2021 21.8N 117.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 15.5N 17.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.09.2021 15.5N 17.9W WEAK
00UTC 12.09.2021 16.3N 20.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2021 16.8N 23.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2021 18.0N 24.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2021 19.1N 25.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2021 20.8N 25.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2021 22.5N 26.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 081603

>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 081440
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Olaf Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021

The depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Olaf this
morning. A well-defined curved band now wraps over 50 percent around
the center of the cyclone, with cloud tops to -80 degrees C. The
initial intensity has been raised to 35 kt for this advisory based
on the latest TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate and the UW-CIMSS ADT.

Olaf is forecast to remain over warm waters and in a moist
environment for the next 36 hours or so. The only inhibiting factor
to strengthening in the short term could be a slight increase in
vertical wind shear beginning tonight. In a couple of days, the
cyclone is forecast to begin moving over cooler waters and into a
drier, much more stable atmospheric environment that favors rapid
weakening. These unfavorable conditions should cause Olaf to
degenerate into a remnant low this weekend. The latest NHC intensity
forecast was decreased only slightly from the previous one, and is
in good agreement with the IVCN intensity consensus. Although the
NHC forecast no longer explicitly shows Olaf becoming a hurricane,
this could still occur Thursday or Thursday night.

The storm is now moving northwestward at 6 kt, to the southwest of a
mid-level ridge building over northern Mexico. This northwestward
motion should continue for a couple of days with a gradual increase
in forward speed. By Friday night, Olaf is expected to turn
west-northwestward as it weakens, and by Saturday a westward motion
is forecast as the cyclone becomes shallow and steered by the
surrounding low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast is little
changed from the previous one, and lies near the various multi-model
consensus tracks. It should be noted that the model solutions that
depict a stronger cyclone favor a track slightly more to the north
than the NHC forecast, closer to the southern Baja peninsula, while
the weaker model solutions lie to the south of the NHC forecast
track.

Key Messages:

1. Olaf is forecast to strengthen to near hurricane intensity
while it passes to the southwest of southern portions of Baja
California Sur Thursday and Friday, and tropical storm conditions
are possible in these areas. Interests there should continue to
monitor the progress of Olaf.

2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are possible across southern
portions of Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This will
pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 18.9N 107.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 19.6N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 20.6N 109.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 21.7N 110.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 22.9N 112.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 23.5N 113.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 23.8N 115.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 23.7N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1200Z 23.0N 120.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 081439
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Olaf Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
900 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM OLAF...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 107.5W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be
required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 107.5 West. Olaf is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general
motion along with an increase in forward speed are expected through
Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Friday
night, followed by a turn toward the west on Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Olaf will move just to the southwest
of southern Baja California Sur on Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Olaf
could be near hurricane strength by late Thursday. The storm is
expected to begin weakening on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Olaf can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO
header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Baja California Sur by late Thursday or Thursday night.

RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches across the southern
portions of Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This
rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: Olaf is expected to generate swells that will affect portions
of the coasts of Baja California Sur and Sinaloa by Thursday,
spreading northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur
through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 081439
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021
1500 UTC WED SEP 08 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 107.5W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 107.5W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 107.3W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.6N 108.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.6N 109.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.7N 110.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.9N 112.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 23.5N 113.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 23.8N 115.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.7N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 23.0N 120.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 107.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 08/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 081156
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
600 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 107.3W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be
required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fifteen-E was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 107.3
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 5
mph (8 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today,
with an increasing forward speed through Friday. A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast by Friday night. On the forecast track,
the center of the depression will move just to the southwest of
southern Baja California Sur on Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm later today. It could then become a
short-lived hurricane Thursday or Thursday night. Weakening is
expected on Friday when the system moves over colder waters.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO
header WTPZ45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Baja California Sur by late Thursday or Thursday night.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches across the
southern portions of Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday.
This rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: The strengthening cyclone is expected to generate swells that
will affect portions of the coasts of Baja California Sur and
Sinaloa by Thursday, spreading northward along the west coast of
Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 080849
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
300 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021

The circulation of the depression has continued to become better
defined, and there has been a substantial increase in deep
convection within bands to the north and northeast of the center.
However, the inner core remains slightly displaced from this
activity, and a combination of subjective and objective intensity
estimates supports maintaining the cyclone as a 30-kt depression
for this advisory.

The system has either been meandering or its center re-formed
yesterday, and the long-term motion is a drift toward the
north-northwest (335 degrees) at about 3 kt. This motion is likely
due to the depression being caught within weak steering currents
between a mid-level low west of the Baja California peninsula and
troughing extending across Mexico to the Gulf of Mexico. A strong
mid-tropospheric high over the western United States should
gradually cause the system to move faster toward the northwest
during the next 2 to 3 days, bringing it very close to Baja
California Sur in about 48 hours. Of the track models, the GFS and
COAMPS-TC models are the solutions which bring the cyclone's center
closest to Baja California Sur, while the ECMWF and UKMET models
have the farther-offshore tracks. The new NHC track forecast
splits the difference among these solutions and is a little east
of the previous forecast during the first 36 hours to account for
recent short-term motions. After 36 hours, it falls more or less
in line with the previous prediction and is very close to the
consensus aids, HWRF, and HMON.

There are counteracting factors at play regarding the depression's
future intensity. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be low,
the GFS suggests that moderate to strong mid-level shear could
develop below the outflow level during the next 24-48 hours. Sea
surface temperatures will be plenty warm for strengthening during
the next 48 hours, yet upper-level divergence is not expected to be
ideal. Since the system's circulation appears to be improving,
steady strengthening is forecast during the first 48 hours, and the
depression could become a short-lived hurricane while it passes the
Baja California peninsula. This forecast is near the upper end
of the guidance envelope, close to the GFS, HWRF, COAMPS-TC, and
HCCA solutions. The cyclone will be moving over colder waters in
2-3 days, which should cause quick weakening and a degeneration to
remnant low status by day 4.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is expected to strengthen to a
tropical storm later today, and it could become a short-lived
hurricane while it passes just to the southwest of southern
portions of Baja California Sur Thursday and Friday. A Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect for southern portions of Baja California
Sur, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of
the depression.

2. Heavy rains associated with Tropical Depression Fifteen-E are
possible across southern portions of Baja California Sur Thursday
through Friday. This will pose a threat of flash flooding and
mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 18.5N 107.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 19.1N 107.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 20.0N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 21.1N 109.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 22.3N 111.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 23.3N 112.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 23.9N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 24.1N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0600Z 23.6N 119.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 080848
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
300 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 107.1W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Watch
northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur to Santa Fe.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be
required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fifteen-E was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 107.1
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 3
mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today,
with an increasing forward speed through Friday. A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast by Friday night. On the forecast track,
the center of the depression will move just to the southwest of
southern Baja California Sur on Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become
a tropical storm later today. It could then become a short-lived
hurricane Thursday or Thursday night. Weakening is expected on
Friday when the system moves over colder waters.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO
header WTPZ45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Baja California Sur by late Thursday or Thursday night.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches across the
southern portions of Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday.
This rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides.

SURF: The strengthening cyclone is expected to generate swells that
will affect portions of the coasts of Baja California Sur and
Sinaloa by Thursday, spreading northward along the west coast of
Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 080848
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021
0900 UTC WED SEP 08 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO SANTA FE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 107.1W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 107.1W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 107.0W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.1N 107.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.0N 108.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.1N 109.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.3N 111.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.3N 112.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.9N 114.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 24.1N 117.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 23.6N 119.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 107.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 08/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 080541
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
1200 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021

...DEPRESSION NOT MOVING MUCH OFF THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 107.3W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The southern portion of Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to
Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fifteen-E was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 107.3
West. The depression has been meandering for much of the last day
or so, and the longer-term motion is toward the northwest near 2
mph (4 km/h). A continued motion toward the northwest but with a
gradual increase in forward speed is expected through Thursday. On
the forecast track, the center of the cyclone will approach the
southern end of the Baja California Peninsula late Thursday and
Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today, and a
hurricane on Thursday or Thursday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Baja California Sur by late Thursday or Thursday night.

RAINFALL: Outer rainbands from the depression are likely to produce
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds along the coast of the
Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco this morning. Locally heavy
rainfall is also possible over portions of Baja California Sur
Thursday and Thursday night.

SURF: The strengthening cyclone is expected to generate swells that
will affect the portions of the southern Baja California peninsula
by Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 080243
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
900 PM MDT Tue Sep 07 2021

Satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Depression Fifteen-E has
changed little in organization during the past several hours.
While the system is producing good convective banding in the
eastern semicircle, the convection near the center is currently
poorly organized, and there is no evidence that the inner core has
consolidated. Thus, the initial intensity remains 30 kt based
mainly on continuity from the previous advisory. A combination of
conventional and 37 GHz microwave satellite imagery suggests that
the center is farther east than previously thought, so the new
initial position is about a half degree east of the previous
advisory position.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 300/5. A large mid-level
anticyclone is located over the southwestern United States with a
ridge extending southeastward across Mexico. The anticyclone
should shift a little eastward during the next few days, with the
ridge extending southward across Mexico. This evolution should
steer the tropical cyclone generally northwestward for the next
several days, followed by a more westward motion as the cyclone
weakens over cooler water and is steered by low-level easterly flow.
The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the
new forecast track is near the consensus models. However, the
more eastward initial position required an eastward shift to the
forecast track. It should be noted that some erratic motion is
possible until the cyclone develops a better-defined inner core.

Conditions appear favorable for strengthening until the system
reaches the 26-deg-C SST isotherm in 60-72 h, with the main
restraining factor being the current lack of internal organization.
The intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous
forecast and calls for the depression to become a tropical storm in
about 12 h and a hurricane in about 48 h. Steady to rapid weakening
is expected after 60-72 h due to the cooler water and dry air
entrainment.

The more easterly initial position and the new forecast track
require a Tropical Storm Watch for portions of Baja California Sur
at this time. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should
monitor the progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 18.2N 107.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 18.6N 107.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 19.4N 108.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 20.4N 109.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 21.7N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 22.8N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 23.7N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 24.5N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 24.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 080243
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
900 PM MDT Tue Sep 07 2021

...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 107.4W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for the southern portion of Baja California Sur from Todos
Santos to Los Barriles.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The southern portion of Baja California Sur from Todos
Santos to Los Barriles

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fifteen-E was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 107.4
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph
(7 km/h). A turn to the northwest is forecast to occur later
tonight, and this motion along with a gradual increase in forward
speed is expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone will approach the southern end of the Baja
California Peninsula late Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight, and a
hurricane on Thursday or Thursday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Baja California Sur by late Thursday or Thursday night.

RAINFALL: Outer rainbands from the depression are likely to produce
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds along the coast of the
Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco through tonight. Locally
heavy rainfall is also possible over portions of Baja California
Sur Thursday and Thursday night.

SURF: The strengthening cyclone is expected to generate swells
that will affect the portions of the southern Baja California
peninsula by Thursday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 080242
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021
0300 UTC WED SEP 08 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM TODOS
SANTOS TO LOS BARRILES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM TODOS
SANTOS TO LOS BARRILES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.4W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.4W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 107.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.6N 107.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.4N 108.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.4N 109.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.7N 110.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.8N 112.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 23.7N 113.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 24.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 24.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 107.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 08/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 072041
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 07 2021

Over the past day or so, convection has gradually become better
organized in association with the area of low pressure offshore
of the coast of southwestern Mexico. There is now a large curved
band to the east of the center, and outflow is increasing in all
quadrants. Based on the improving convective organization,
advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Fifteen-E. An
ASCAT-B overpass a few hours ago indicated the peak winds associated
with the depression were 26 kt, and assuming some undersampling, the
initial advisory intensity is set at 30 kt.

The depression has been moving slowly west-northwestward today, to
the south of a weak mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico.
Another ridge is forecast to begin building from the southwestern
United States to over northern Mexico tonight, which should turn the
cyclone to the northwest. The system should then gradually
accelerate through midweek as it gets caught in the flow between
this ridge, and a mid- to upper-level trough to its west. By late in
the forecast period, a turn to the west is expected as the cyclone
weakens and becomes steered by the low-level flow. The model
guidance is generally in good agreement on this scenario, and the
NHC track forecast is close to the various model consensus
solutions. It should be noted that based on this track forecast,
the center of the cyclone would approach within 120 n mi of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula on Thursday.
Therefore, any deviation in the track to the right would increase
the chance for impacts to that area.

There are very favorable environmental conditions around the
depression that should allow for strengthening over the next couple
of days. The only inhibiting factor for quick strengthening in the
short term appears to be the lack of a tight circulation and
inner-core convection. Because of this, the NHC intensity forecast
is on the lower end of the guidance through the first 24 hours,
nearest to the LGEM, as it appears the HWRF/HMON are a bit too
aggressive in intensifying the cyclone during that time. By 24
hours, it is assumed that the inner-core will become better
established, and faster strengthening is indicated from 24 to 48
hours. By 72 hours, the system is forecast to begin moving over
much cooler waters and into a dry, stable atmospheric environment,
which should cause weakening. By this weekend, the cyclone is
expected to degenerate into a remnant low. The NHC intensity
forecast beyond 24 hours is very near the IVCN consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 18.2N 107.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 18.4N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 19.0N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 20.0N 109.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 21.1N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 22.4N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 23.4N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 24.5N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 24.5N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 072040
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 07 2021

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 107.9W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fifteen-E was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 107.9
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph
(7 km/h). A turn to the northwest is expected by tonight, and this
motion along with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected
through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight, and a
hurricane on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Outer rainbands from the depression are likely to produce
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds along the coast of the
Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco through tonight.

SURF: The strengthening cyclone is expected to generate swells
that will affect the portions of the southern Baja California
peninsula by Thursday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


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Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 072040
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021
2100 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.9W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.9W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 107.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.4N 108.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.0N 108.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.0N 109.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.1N 110.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.4N 112.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.4N 113.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 24.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 24.5N 118.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 107.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



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