Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for OLAF-21
in Mexico

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone OLAF-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1000825
Name OLAF-21
Glide number: TC-2021-000122-MEX
From - To 07 Sep - 11 Sep
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 310 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 157 km/h Category 2
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (10 Sep 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

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Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS 157 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 1.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 169 km/h 0.6 m 647 mm 0.5
GFS 122 km/h 0.4 m 445 mm 0.5
ECMWF 79 km/h 0.5 m 469 mm 0.5
Beta Version - All weather systems in the area: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Mexico - Tropical Cyclone OLAF (ECHO 10 Sep 2021)Fri, 10 Sep 2021 16:19

  • Tropical Cyclone OLAF made landfall near San Josè del Cabo City (southern Baja California Sur State, Mexico) on 10 September around 3.00 UTC, with maximum sustained winds of 157 km/h (Category 2 Hurricane).
  • According to media, preventive evacuations ahead of OLAF occurred in Cabo San Lucas and San Jose del Cabo Cities.
  • OLAF is expected to weaken to a Category 1 Hurricane (maximum sustained winds between 120-140 km/h) as it moves north-west over the southern and central Baja California Sur. In the early morning of 11 September, OLAF is forecast to turn westwards, as it reaches the eastern Pacific Ocean.
  • A Hurricane warning has been issued for coastal southern and south-western Baja California Sur and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for coastal areas in central and south-eastern and central-western Baja California Sur. On 10-11 September, heavy rain, strong winds and storm surge are forecast over central and southern Baja California Sur.
Detailed event map. European Union, 2021. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (38), (1), DesInventar (1), WMO (1), INFORM (2),