Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MINDULLE-21
in Japan, Russian Federation, Guam

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.





Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020000UTC 39N 148E
MOVE NE 25KT
PRES 976HPA
MXWD 060KT
30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020000UTC 39N 148E
MOVE NE 25KT
PRES 976HPA
MXWD 060KT
30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST =


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 012100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 012100UTC 38.4N 146.6E FAIR
MOVE NE 25KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 180NM EAST 130NM WEST
30KT 375NM EAST 325NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 020900UTC 42.6N 151.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 29KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 022100UTC 47.4N 156.9E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 012100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 012100UTC 38.4N 146.6E FAIR
MOVE NE 25KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 180NM EAST 130NM WEST
30KT 375NM EAST 325NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 022100UTC 47.4N 156.9E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011800UTC 37.2N 145.6E FAIR
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 180NM EAST 130NM WEST
30KT 375NM EAST 325NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 020600UTC 41.6N 150.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 28KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 021800UTC 46.1N 155.4E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011800UTC 37.2N 145.6E FAIR
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 180NM EAST 130NM WEST
30KT 375NM EAST 325NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 021800UTC 46.1N 155.4E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 011500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011500UTC 36.4N 144.7E FAIR
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
30KT 375NM EAST 325NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 020300UTC 40.5N 148.9E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 27KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 021500UTC 45.0N 154.0E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 011500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011500UTC 36.4N 144.7E FAIR
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
30KT 375NM EAST 325NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 021500UTC 45.0N 154.0E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 35.4N 143.6E FAIR
MOVE NNE 21KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
30KT 375NM EAST 325NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 020000UTC 39.4N 147.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 26KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 021200UTC 43.8N 152.6E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 35.4N 143.6E FAIR
MOVE NNE 21KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
30KT 375NM EAST 325NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 021200UTC 43.8N 152.6E 35NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 011200
WARNING 011200.
WARNING VALID 021200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 965 HPA
AT 35.4N 143.6E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 21 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 39.4N 147.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 43.8N 152.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
976 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 010900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010900UTC 34.5N 143.0E FAIR
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 400NM EAST 325NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 012100UTC 38.2N 146.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 020900UTC 42.6N 151.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 28KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 030600UTC 51.3N 160.1E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 010900
WARNING 010900.
WARNING VALID 020900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 950 HPA
AT 34.5N 143.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 21 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 012100UTC AT 38.2N 146.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020900UTC AT 42.6N 151.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 010900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010900UTC 34.5N 143.0E FAIR
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 400NM EAST 325NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 020900UTC 42.6N 151.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 28KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 030600UTC 51.3N 160.1E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.33 FOR TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MINDULLE IS LOCATED AT 33.6N, 142.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 80KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND LOWER SSTS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
METOP-A/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW SSTS, DRY AIR AND
INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE
OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010600UTC 33.6N 142.3E FAIR
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
30KT 400NM EAST 325NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 011800UTC 37.1N 145.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 23KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 020600UTC 41.3N 150.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 27KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 030600UTC 51.3N 160.1E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 010600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010600UTC 33.6N 142.3E FAIR
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
30KT 400NM EAST 325NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 020600UTC 41.3N 150.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 27KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 030600UTC 51.3N 160.1E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 010600
WARNING 010600.
WARNING VALID 020600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 950 HPA
AT 33.6N 142.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 19 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 37.1N 145.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 41.3N 150.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 51.3N 160.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
976 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 010300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010300UTC 32.5N 141.2E GOOD
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 170NM NORTHWEST 150NM SOUTHEAST
30KT 400NM EAST 325NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 011500UTC 35.7N 144.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
24HF 020300UTC 39.5N 148.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 26KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 030000UTC 47.4N 157.6E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 010300
WARNING 010300.
WARNING VALID 020300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 945 HPA
AT 32.5N 141.2E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 19 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 325 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011500UTC AT 35.7N 144.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 39.5N 148.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 010300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010300UTC 32.5N 141.2E GOOD
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 170NM NORTHWEST 150NM SOUTHEAST
30KT 400NM EAST 325NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 020300UTC 39.5N 148.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 26KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 030000UTC 47.4N 157.6E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.32 FOR TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MINDULLE IS LOCATED AT 31.9N, 140.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
945HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH DRY AIR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOWER
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010000UTC 31.9N 140.7E GOOD
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 170NM NORTHWEST 150NM SOUTHEAST
30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 011200UTC 34.8N 143.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
24HF 020000UTC 38.4N 147.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 030000UTC 47.4N 157.6E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010000UTC 31.9N 140.7E GOOD
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 170NM NORTHWEST 150NM SOUTHEAST
30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 020000UTC 38.4N 147.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 030000UTC 47.4N 157.6E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 010000
WARNING 010000.
WARNING VALID 020000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 945 HPA
AT 31.9N 140.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 170 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 34.8N 143.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 38.4N 147.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 47.4N 157.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
976 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 302100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 302100UTC 31.0N 140.1E GOOD
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 010900UTC 34.0N 142.9E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
24HF 012100UTC 37.4N 146.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 021800UTC 44.9N 155.0E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 302100
WARNING 302100.
WARNING VALID 012100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 945 HPA
AT 31.0N 140.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010900UTC AT 34.0N 142.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 012100UTC AT 37.4N 146.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 302100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 302100UTC 31.0N 140.1E GOOD
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 012100UTC 37.4N 146.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 021800UTC 44.9N 155.0E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 301800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.31 FOR TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MINDULLE IS LOCATED AT 30.4N, 139.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
945HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, INCREASED VWS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL
FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, STRONG VWS
AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 301800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301800UTC 30.4N 139.1E GOOD
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 010600UTC 33.3N 142.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
24HF 011800UTC 36.4N 145.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 021800UTC 44.9N 155.0E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 301800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301800UTC 30.4N 139.1E GOOD
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 011800UTC 36.4N 145.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 021800UTC 44.9N 155.0E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 301800
WARNING 301800.
WARNING VALID 011800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 945 HPA
AT 30.4N 139.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 33.3N 142.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 36.4N 145.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 44.9N 155.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
974 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 301500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301500UTC 29.8N 138.6E GOOD
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 010300UTC 32.4N 141.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 011500UTC 35.4N 144.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 021200UTC 42.4N 152.2E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 301500
WARNING 301500.
WARNING VALID 011500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 945 HPA
AT 29.8N 138.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010300UTC AT 32.4N 141.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011500UTC AT 35.4N 144.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 301500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301500UTC 29.8N 138.6E GOOD
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 011500UTC 35.4N 144.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 021200UTC 42.4N 152.2E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 301200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.30 FOR TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MINDULLE IS LOCATED AT 29.1N, 138.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
945HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, INCREASED VWS, DRY AIR AND GOOD
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL
FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, STRONG VWS
AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 301200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301200UTC 29.1N 138.1E GOOD
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 010000UTC 31.6N 140.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 011200UTC 34.5N 143.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 021200UTC 42.4N 152.2E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 301200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301200UTC 29.1N 138.1E GOOD
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 011200UTC 34.5N 143.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 021200UTC 42.4N 152.2E 60NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 301200
WARNING 301200.
WARNING VALID 011200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 945 HPA
AT 29.1N 138.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 31.6N 140.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 34.5N 143.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 42.4N 152.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 300900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300900UTC 28.5N 137.6E GOOD
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 375NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 302100UTC 31.0N 139.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 010900UTC 33.9N 142.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 020600UTC 40.2N 149.9E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 030600UTC 50.3N 159.9E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 300900
WARNING 300900.
WARNING VALID 010900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 945 HPA
AT 28.5N 137.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 302100UTC AT 31.0N 139.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010900UTC AT 33.9N 142.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 300900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300900UTC 28.5N 137.6E GOOD
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 375NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 010900UTC 33.9N 142.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 020600UTC 40.2N 149.9E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 030600UTC 50.3N 159.9E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.29 FOR TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MINDULLE IS LOCATED AT 28.1N, 137.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
945HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY
AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300600UTC 28.1N 137.4E GOOD
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 375NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 301800UTC 30.4N 139.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 010600UTC 33.0N 141.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 020600UTC 40.2N 149.9E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 030600UTC 50.3N 159.9E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 300600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300600UTC 28.1N 137.4E GOOD
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 375NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 010600UTC 33.0N 141.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 020600UTC 40.2N 149.9E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 030600UTC 50.3N 159.9E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 300600
WARNING 300600.
WARNING VALID 010600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 945 HPA
AT 28.1N 137.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 30.4N 139.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 33.0N 141.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 40.2N 149.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 50.3N 159.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 300300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300300UTC 27.3N 136.9E GOOD
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 375NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 301500UTC 29.6N 138.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 010300UTC 32.3N 141.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 020000UTC 37.8N 147.6E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 030000UTC 46.2N 157.5E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 300300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300300UTC 27.3N 136.9E GOOD
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 375NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 010300UTC 32.3N 141.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 020000UTC 37.8N 147.6E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 030000UTC 46.2N 157.5E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 300300
WARNING 300300.
WARNING VALID 010300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 940 HPA
AT 27.3N 136.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 375 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301500UTC AT 29.6N 138.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010300UTC AT 32.3N 141.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.28 FOR TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MINDULLE IS LOCATED AT 26.6N, 136.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
940HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 90KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL
FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY
AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 26.6N 136.4E GOOD
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 301200UTC 28.9N 138.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 010000UTC 31.7N 140.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 020000UTC 37.8N 147.6E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 030000UTC 46.2N 157.5E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 26.6N 136.4E GOOD
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 010000UTC 31.7N 140.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 17KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 020000UTC 37.8N 147.6E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 030000UTC 46.2N 157.5E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 300000
WARNING 300000.
WARNING VALID 010000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 940 HPA
AT 26.6N 136.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 28.9N 138.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 31.7N 140.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 37.8N 147.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 46.2N 157.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 292100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 292100UTC 26.2N 136.1E GOOD
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 300900UTC 28.5N 137.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 302100UTC 30.9N 139.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 011800UTC 36.2N 145.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 021800UTC 43.4N 155.3E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 292100
WARNING 292100.
WARNING VALID 302100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 935 HPA
AT 26.2N 136.1E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300900UTC AT 28.5N 137.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 302100UTC AT 30.9N 139.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 292100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 292100UTC 26.2N 136.1E GOOD
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 302100UTC 30.9N 139.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 011800UTC 36.2N 145.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 021800UTC 43.4N 155.3E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 291800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MINDULLE IS LOCATED AT 25.8N, 135.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 291800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291800UTC 25.8N 135.9E GOOD
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 300600UTC 27.9N 137.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 301800UTC 30.4N 139.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 011800UTC 36.2N 145.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 021800UTC 43.4N 155.3E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 291800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291800UTC 25.8N 135.9E GOOD
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 301800UTC 30.4N 139.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 15KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 011800UTC 36.2N 145.7E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 021800UTC 43.4N 155.3E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 291800
WARNING 291800.
WARNING VALID 301800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 935 HPA
AT 25.8N 135.9E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 27.9N 137.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 30.4N 139.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 36.2N 145.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 43.4N 155.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 291500
WARNING 291500.
WARNING VALID 301500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 935 HPA
AT 25.3N 135.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301500UTC AT 29.8N 138.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 291500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291500UTC 25.3N 135.6E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 301500UTC 29.8N 138.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 011200UTC 34.7N 144.0E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 021200UTC 42.0N 153.0E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 291500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291500UTC 25.3N 135.6E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 301500UTC 29.8N 138.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 011200UTC 34.7N 144.0E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 021200UTC 42.0N 153.0E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MINDULLE IS LOCATED AT 24.8N, 135.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291200UTC 24.8N 135.5E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 301200UTC 29.2N 138.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 011200UTC 34.7N 144.0E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 021200UTC 42.0N 153.0E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291200UTC 24.8N 135.5E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 301200UTC 29.2N 138.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 011200UTC 34.7N 144.0E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 021200UTC 42.0N 153.0E 100NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 291200
WARNING 291200.
WARNING VALID 301200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 935 HPA
AT 24.8N 135.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 29.2N 138.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 34.7N 144.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 42.0N 153.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
976 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 290900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290900UTC 24.5N 135.4E GOOD
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 300900UTC 28.6N 137.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 010600UTC 33.2N 142.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 020600UTC 39.8N 150.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 23KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 030600UTC 48.7N 160.4E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 290900
WARNING 290900.
WARNING VALID 300900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 935 HPA
AT 24.5N 135.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300900UTC AT 28.6N 137.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 290900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290900UTC 24.5N 135.4E GOOD
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 300900UTC 28.6N 137.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 010600UTC 33.2N 142.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 020600UTC 39.8N 150.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 23KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 290600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MINDULLE IS LOCATED AT 24.2N, 135.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS
DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 290600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290600UTC 24.2N 135.4E GOOD
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 300600UTC 27.9N 137.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 010600UTC 33.2N 142.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 020600UTC 39.8N 150.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 23KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 030600UTC 48.7N 160.4E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 290600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290600UTC 24.2N 135.4E GOOD
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 300600UTC 27.9N 137.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 010600UTC 33.2N 142.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 020600UTC 39.8N 150.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 23KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 290600
WARNING 290600.
WARNING VALID 300600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 935 HPA
AT 24.2N 135.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 27.9N 137.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 33.2N 142.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 39.8N 150.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 48.7N 160.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 290300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290300UTC 23.7N 135.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 300300UTC 27.4N 136.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 010000UTC 31.7N 140.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 020000UTC 37.6N 147.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 030000UTC 44.5N 157.7E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 290300
WARNING 290300.
WARNING VALID 300300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 935 HPA
AT 23.7N 135.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300300UTC AT 27.4N 136.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 290300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290300UTC 23.7N 135.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 300300UTC 27.4N 136.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 010000UTC 31.7N 140.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 020000UTC 37.6N 147.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MINDULLE IS LOCATED AT 23.3N, 135.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290000UTC 23.3N 135.4E GOOD
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 300000UTC 26.8N 136.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 010000UTC 31.7N 140.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 020000UTC 37.6N 147.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 030000UTC 44.5N 157.7E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290000UTC 23.3N 135.4E GOOD
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 300000UTC 26.8N 136.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 010000UTC 31.7N 140.4E 60NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 020000UTC 37.6N 147.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 290000
WARNING 290000.
WARNING VALID 300000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 935 HPA
AT 23.3N 135.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 26.8N 136.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 31.7N 140.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 37.6N 147.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 44.5N 157.7E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 282100
WARNING 282100.
WARNING VALID 292100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 935 HPA
AT 23.0N 135.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 292100UTC AT 26.3N 136.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 282100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 282100UTC 23.0N 135.6E GOOD
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 292100UTC 26.3N 136.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 301800UTC 30.3N 139.0E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 011800UTC 35.8N 145.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 021800UTC 42.3N 154.2E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 282100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 282100UTC 23.0N 135.6E GOOD
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 292100UTC 26.3N 136.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 301800UTC 30.3N 139.0E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
69HF 011800UTC 35.8N 145.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MINDULLE IS LOCATED AT 22.6N, 135.6E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE BY AT
LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP
AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT96
IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281800UTC 22.6N 135.6E GOOD
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 291800UTC 25.8N 135.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 301800UTC 30.3N 139.0E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 011800UTC 35.8N 145.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 021800UTC 42.3N 154.2E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281800UTC 22.6N 135.6E GOOD
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 291800UTC 25.8N 135.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 301800UTC 30.3N 139.0E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 011800UTC 35.8N 145.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 281800
WARNING 281800.
WARNING VALID 291800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 935 HPA
AT 22.6N 135.6E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 25.8N 135.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 30.3N 139.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 35.8N 145.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 42.3N 154.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 281500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281500UTC 22.2N 135.5E GOOD
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 291500UTC 25.3N 135.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 301200UTC 29.0N 137.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 011200UTC 34.3N 143.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 021200UTC 40.5N 151.6E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 281500
WARNING 281500.
WARNING VALID 291500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 935 HPA
AT 22.2N 135.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291500UTC AT 25.3N 135.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 281500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281500UTC 22.2N 135.5E GOOD
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 291500UTC 25.3N 135.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 301200UTC 29.0N 137.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 011200UTC 34.3N 143.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MINDULLE IS LOCATED AT 21.9N, 135.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE
EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP
AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT96
IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM
INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281200UTC 21.9N 135.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 291200UTC 24.9N 135.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 301200UTC 29.0N 137.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 011200UTC 34.3N 143.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 021200UTC 40.5N 151.6E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281200UTC 21.9N 135.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 291200UTC 24.9N 135.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 301200UTC 29.0N 137.8E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 011200UTC 34.3N 143.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 281200
WARNING 281200.
WARNING VALID 291200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 935 HPA
AT 21.9N 135.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 24.9N 135.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 29.0N 137.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 34.3N 143.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 40.5N 151.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 280900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280900UTC 21.8N 135.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM EAST 240NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 290900UTC 24.5N 135.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 300600UTC 28.0N 136.6E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
69HF 010600UTC 33.0N 141.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 020600UTC 39.3N 149.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
117HF 030600UTC 46.0N 159.7E 280NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 280900
WARNING 280900.
WARNING VALID 290900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 935 HPA
AT 21.8N 135.4E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290900UTC AT 24.5N 135.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 280900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280900UTC 21.8N 135.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 350NM EAST 240NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 290900UTC 24.5N 135.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 300600UTC 28.0N 136.6E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
69HF 010600UTC 33.0N 141.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 280600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MINDULLE IS LOCATED AT 21.6N, 135.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL
FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 280600
WARNING 280600.
WARNING VALID 290600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 935 HPA
AT 21.6N 135.5E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 24.1N 134.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 28.0N 136.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 33.0N 141.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 39.3N 149.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 46.0N 159.7E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 280300
WARNING 280300.
WARNING VALID 290300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 935 HPA
AT 21.2N 135.8E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290300UTC AT 23.5N 134.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 272100
WARNING 272100.
WARNING VALID 282100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 935 HPA
AT 20.7N 136.3E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 282100UTC AT 22.7N 134.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 271500
WARNING 271500.
WARNING VALID 281500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 935 HPA
AT 20.3N 136.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281500UTC AT 22.0N 134.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 270900
WARNING 270900.
WARNING VALID 280900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 925 HPA
AT 20.0N 136.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280900UTC AT 21.4N 135.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 270300
WARNING 270300.
WARNING VALID 280300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 935 HPA
AT 19.7N 136.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280300UTC AT 20.8N 135.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 262100
WARNING 262100.
WARNING VALID 272100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 920 HPA
AT 19.5N 136.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 272100UTC AT 20.3N 135.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 261500
WARNING 261500.
WARNING VALID 271500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 920 HPA
AT 19.2N 136.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271500UTC AT 20.0N 135.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 260900
WARNING 260900.
WARNING VALID 270900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 920 HPA
AT 18.9N 136.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270900UTC AT 19.8N 136.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 260300
WARNING 260300.
WARNING VALID 270300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 935 HPA
AT 18.7N 136.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270300UTC AT 19.6N 136.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 252100
WARNING 252100.
WARNING VALID 262100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 950 HPA
AT 18.7N 136.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 262100UTC AT 19.6N 136.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 251500
WARNING 251500.
WARNING VALID 261500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 955 HPA
AT 18.3N 137.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261500UTC AT 19.6N 137.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 2116 MINDULLE (2116)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MINDULLE IS LOCATED AT 18.2N, 137.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
955HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. IT HAS ALSO DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
APPEARANCE OF AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT96. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 250900
WARNING 250900.
WARNING VALID 260900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 960 HPA
AT 17.8N 137.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260900UTC AT 19.4N 137.2E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 250300
WARNING 250300.
WARNING VALID 260300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 980 HPA
AT 17.4N 137.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 25 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260300UTC AT 18.9N 137.5E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 242100
WARNING 242100.
WARNING VALID 252100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 990 HPA
AT 16.8N 138.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 20 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100UTC AT 18.6N 137.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 241500
WARNING 241500.
WARNING VALID 251500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 992 HPA
AT 16.1N 139.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 18.2N 137.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 240900
WARNING 240900.
WARNING VALID 250900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 998 HPA
AT 15.8N 139.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900UTC AT 17.8N 137.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 240300
WARNING 240300.
WARNING VALID 250300.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 998 HPA
AT 14.9N 140.8E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 17.2N 137.8E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 232100
WARNING 232100.
WARNING VALID 242100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 998 HPA
AT 14.2N 141.6E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 242100UTC AT 16.7N 138.4E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 231500
WARNING 231500.
WARNING VALID 241500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2116 MINDULLE (2116) 1002 HPA
AT 13.9N 142.5E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241500UTC AT 16.0N 138.9E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=