Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KARL-22
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 150847
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

Moderate to strong vertical wind shear and relatively low mid-level
humidities have continued to take a toll on Karl. Satellite data
and radar imagery from Mexico indicate that the cyclone has not
produced any organized deep convection since around midday
yesterday, and it is very unlikely any will return this morning.
Therefore, Karl has become a remnant low and this will be the last
NHC advisory on this system. The radar imagery has revealed a
persistent area of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall
well south of Karl's center that appears to be related to upslope
flow against the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico. Within
this cluster of convection, a significant amount of lightning has
been noted in the GOES Lightning Mapper (GLM) data overnight.
Karl's remnants could still produce flash flooding and mudslides
over portions of southern Mexico through this weekend.

The initial intensity has been reduced to 25 kt, which is a blend
of Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The global models
indicate that the remnant low will continue to spin down today,
and the official forecast calls for it to become a trough of low
pressure by tonight when it moves inland over southern Mexico.

The low is currently moving southwestward at about 4 kt, and a
southwestward to west-southwestward motion should continue until
dissipation occurs. This motion should bring the center of the
cyclone along the southern coast of the Bay of Campeche this
morning, and inland by later today.

This is the last NHC advisory on this system. For additional
information on heavy rainfall and flooding, please see products
issued by your national meteorological service.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with the remnants of Karl could
produce instances of flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of
higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and
Oaxaca states in Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 18.6N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 15/1800Z 18.3N 93.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 150847
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

...KARL BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 93.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl
was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 93.0 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7
km/h). A southwestward to west-southwestward motion is expected
today, and the center of the low should move along the coast
of southern Mexico this morning, and inland by later today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and the low
is expected to dissipate tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: The remnants of Karl are expected to produce 2 to 5
inches of rain, with local maxima up to 8 inches, across portions
of Veracruz, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in
Mexico through Sunday morning. These rains could produce flash
flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by this system are expected to affect the
Mexican coastline through tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on heavy
rainfall and flooding, please see products issued by your national
meteorological service.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 150846
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022
0900 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 93.0W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 93.0W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 92.9W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.3N 93.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 93.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON KARL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 150240
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Karl Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

Karl has not redeveloped any deep convection since the last burst
faded earlier this afternoon. Data from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter flight found surface wind speeds of 20-24 kt and a
peak flight-level wind of only 28 kt. Therefore, the initial
intensity has been lowered to a possibly generous 30 kt, and Karl
is now a tropical depression. All global models agree the cyclone
will continue to weaken for the next 12-24 hours in the presence of
moderate deep-layer shear and relatively low mid-layer humidities.
The official intensity forecast now shows Karl becoming a
post-tropical remnant low within 12 h.

The depression is drifting southward at about 3 kt. Model guidance
suggests the shallow vortex will drift southwestward in the flow
around a low-level ridge to the north for the next day or so. The
NHC forecast shows Karl moving inland between 12-24 h and
dissipating inland by 36 h.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce flash flooding,
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of
Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 19.1N 92.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 18.6N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/0000Z 18.2N 93.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 150240
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Karl Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

...KARL BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALL COASTAL WARNINGS
ARE DISCONTINUED...
...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD STILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 92.8W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 190 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings along the
coast of Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in southern Mexico should continue to monitor the
progress of Karl.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karl
was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 92.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the south near 3 mph (6 km/h).
A south-southwestward to southwestward motion is expected during the
next day or so as Karl moves over the Bay of Campeche. On the
forecast track, the center of Karl should be near the coast of
southern Mexico on Saturday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55
km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Karl is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Saturday and dissipate
by early Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 8 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday
morning. These rains could produce flash flooding, along with
mudslides, in higher terrain.

WIND: Gusty winds are still possible along the southern Bay of
Campeche coast through Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 150239
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022
0300 UTC SAT OCT 15 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KARL.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 92.8W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 190 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 92.8W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 92.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.6N 93.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.2N 93.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 92.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 142357
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
700 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT INVESTIGATING KARL...
...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 92.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 195 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coatzacoalcos to Sabancuy

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 92.6 West. Karl is
moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A
south-southwestward or southwestward motion is expected during the
next day or so as Karl moves over the Bay of Campeche. On the
forecast track, the center of Karl should be near the coast of
southern Mexico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Karl is expected to become
a tropical depression tonight or early Saturday and dissipate by
early Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 8 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico into early Sunday.
These rains could produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in
higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
within portions of the tropical storm warning area this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 142038
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

The deep convection associated with Karl collapsed around midday,
with dry air and deep-layer shear continuing to take a toll on the
cyclone. The second half of the previous Air Force Hurricane Hunter
mission found the minimum pressure had increased to around 1003 mb,
and the peak 850-mb flight-level winds were only 39 kt. Some ASCAT
passes across the eastern portion of the circulation showed at least
25-30 kt winds in the southeastern quadrant, with some higher
tropical-storm-force vectors flagged as marginal. Based on these
data and the latest satellite estimates, the initial intensity is
lowered to 35 kt. This could be generous given the current lack of
convection, but another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the storm this evening.

The last few aircraft fixes and earlier ASCAT data indicated the
center of Karl was not moving very much. Although the long-term
motion is estimated at 195/4 kt, the near-term motion appears to be
more of a west-southwestward drift. The shallow cyclone is expected
to move generally southwestward during the next day or so as it
becomes steered by a low-level ridge to the north. More of the
latest track models show the center of Karl moving slower and more
southwestward across the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and so the NHC
forecast has been adjusted westward from the previous track. Karl
will likely struggle to generate more organized convection in the
near term given the persistent shear and lack of mid-level moisture
in its environment. Therefore, the NHC forecast now shows Karl
weakening to a depression by early Saturday and degenerating into a
post-tropical remnant low in 24 h, when it is near the coast of
southern Mexico. Dissipation should occur soon thereafter due to
the increased likelihood of land interaction.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce flash flooding,
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of
Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected to
within a portion of the warning area in southern Mexico this
evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 19.5N 92.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 19.1N 93.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 18.4N 93.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 142037
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE KARL
THIS EVENING...
...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 92.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 195 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coatzacoalcos to Sabancuy

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 92.9 West. Karl is
moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A
south-southwestward or southwestward motion is expected during the
next day or so as Karl moves over the Bay of Campeche. On the
forecast track, the center of Karl should be near the coast of
southern Mexico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast, and Karl is expected to become a
tropical depression by early Saturday and dissipate by early Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 8 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico into early Sunday.
These rains could produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in
higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected
within portions of the tropical storm warning area this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 142036
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022
2100 UTC FRI OCT 14 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COATZACOALCOS TO SABANCUY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 92.9W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 195 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 30SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 92.9W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 92.8W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.1N 93.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.4N 93.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 92.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 141746
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
100 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM KARL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 92.8W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 185 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coatzacoalcos to Sabancuy

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 92.8 West. Karl is
moving toward the south near 6 mph (9 km/h). A southward or
south-southwestward motion is expected tonight and early Saturday
over the Bay of Campeche. On the forecast track, the center of Karl
should reach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight or early
Saturday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the
center of Karl reaches the coast. Steady weakening is expected after
the storm crosses the coastline, and the system is forecast to
dissipate over southern Mexico by Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center. A couple of hours ago, the Ciudad del Carmen
International Airport reported a sustained wind of 31 mph (50 km/h)
and a wind gust to 43 mph (69 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches)
based on dropsonde data from the aircraft.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday
morning. These rains could produce flash flooding, along with
mudslides, in higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the tropical storm warning area by this afternoon or evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 141614

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 14.10.2022

TROPICAL STORM KARL ANALYSED POSITION : 19.9N 92.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.10.2022 0 19.9N 92.4W 1002 35
0000UTC 15.10.2022 12 19.1N 92.4W 1004 28
1200UTC 15.10.2022 24 18.9N 93.3W 1008 27
0000UTC 16.10.2022 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 35.2N 27.7E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.10.2022 24 35.2N 27.7E 1004 32
0000UTC 16.10.2022 36 34.5N 27.2E 1006 34
1200UTC 16.10.2022 48 32.7N 28.6E 1009 29
0000UTC 17.10.2022 60 32.6N 30.4E 1011 24
1200UTC 17.10.2022 72 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 141614

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 141614

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.10.2022

TROPICAL STORM KARL ANALYSED POSITION : 19.9N 92.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142022

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.10.2022 19.9N 92.4W WEAK
00UTC 15.10.2022 19.1N 92.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.10.2022 18.9N 93.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.10.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 35.2N 27.7E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.10.2022 35.2N 27.7E WEAK
00UTC 16.10.2022 34.5N 27.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.10.2022 32.7N 28.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.10.2022 32.6N 30.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.10.2022 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 141614

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 141447
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

The satellite presentation of Karl has improved this morning. An
increase in deep convection closer to the center has resulted in a
more symmetric dense overcast, with a concentrated area of lightning
noted downshear of the center. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft that is currently investigating Karl has found 850-mb
flight-level winds of 42 kt so far, with peak SFMR retrievals in the
40-45 kt range. Based on these data and a dropsonde that indicated a
slightly lower minimum pressure than last night, the initial
intensity is raised slightly to 40 kt for this advisory.

The long-term motion of Karl is now south-southeastward at 6 kt,
although aircraft fixes and radar suggest the motion has been more
southward during the past 3-6 hours. A southward to
south-southwestward motion is expected through early Saturday as
Karl moves around a mid-level ridge over west-central Mexico. While
many of the models (including ECMWF, UKMET, and HMON) take the
center of Karl inland between 12-24 h, the GFS and HWRF show a more
shallow system turning westward within the low-level flow and
remaining just offshore this weekend. Given that the ECMWF seems to
have a better handle on the current convective structure and initial
motion of Karl, the NHC forecast more closely follows the first set
of models and shows the storm center inland by 24 h.

Moderate west-northwesterly shear and drier mid-level air in the
surrounding environment should continue to plague Karl during the
next 12-24 h. Therefore, little net change in strength is expected
through landfall, although small intensity fluctuations are
possible. Karl is forecast to reach the coast of southern Mexico as
a tropical storm late tonight, then quickly weaken to a depression
and dissipate over the terrain of southern Mexico by late Saturday
or Saturday night.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce flash flooding,
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of
Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas, and Oaxaca states in Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within a portion
of the warning area in southern Mexico by this afternoon or evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 19.4N 92.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 18.8N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 18.1N 93.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 141446
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO BEGINNING LATER TODAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
INTO THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 92.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 160 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
west of Coatzacoalcos to Alvarado.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coatzacoalcos to Sabancuy

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 92.7 West. Karl is
moving toward the south-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A southward
to south-southwestward motion is expected later today and tonight
over the Bay of Campeche. On the forecast track, the center of Karl
should reach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight or early
Saturday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the center of
Karl reaches the coast. Steady weakening is expected after the storm
crosses the coastline, and the system is forecast to dissipate over
southern Mexico by Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches)
based on dropsonde data from the aircraft.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday
morning. These rains could produce flash flooding, along with
mudslides, in higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
portions of the tropical storm warning area by this afternoon or
this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 141445
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022
1500 UTC FRI OCT 14 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
WEST OF COATZACOALCOS TO ALVARADO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COATZACOALCOS TO SABANCUY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 92.7W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 160 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 30SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 92.7W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 92.6W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.8N 92.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.1N 93.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 92.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 141149
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
700 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE INVESTIGATING KARL...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 92.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 145 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alvarado to Sabancuy

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 92.3 West. Karl is
moving toward the southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). Karl is expected
to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche
later today, and this motion should continue through early Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coast of
southern Mexico late tonight or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected before the center of Karl
reaches the coast. Steady weakening is expected after the storm
crosses the coastline, and the system is forecast to dissipate over
southern Mexico by Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center. A Mexican Navy station at Cayo Arcas recently
reported sustained winds of 31 mph (50 km/h) and a wind gust of 40
mph (64 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday
morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with
mudslides, in higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
portions of the tropical storm warning area by late today or
tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 140845
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022
0900 UTC FRI OCT 14 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALVARADO TO SABANCUY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 92.4W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 140 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 92.4W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 92.6W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.5N 92.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.6N 92.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.7N 93.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 92.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 140846
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

Satellite imagery indicates that Karl remains disorganized this
morning, with the low-level center at the northwestern edge of a
newly-formed convective burst. Recent scatterometer data and
earlier data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
did not conclusively indicate any tropical-storm force winds in the
system. However, the central pressure was near 1001 mb, and based
on likely undersampling of the winds the initial intensity is set
at 35 kt.

The initial motion is southeastward or 140/5 kt. Karl should turn
southward later today and then south-southwestward by tonight as
the system reaches the periphery of a mid-level ridge over
west-central Mexico. This south-southwestward motion is expected to
continue until Karl dissipates over Mexico between 36-48 h. While
the forecast track follows the consensus models and has not changed
much from the previous advisory, it should be noted that the GFS is
an outlier in that it turns a weak and vertically shallow Karl more
westward and keeps it offshore through 48 h.

Moderate west-northwesterly shear, dry air entrainment, and
upper-level convergence affecting Karl should continue through
landfall. Thus, little change in strength is likely before
landfall, although it cannot be ruled out that Karl could weaken to
a depression before reaching the coast. After landfall, the
cyclone should quickly weaken and dissipate between 36-48 h. Even,
if the cyclone stays over water longer as suggested by the GFS, the
generally hostile environment should not allow strengthening.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce instances of
flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across
portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within a portion
of the warning area in southern Mexico by late today or tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 20.2N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 19.5N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 18.6N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 17.7N 93.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 140845
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

...KARL CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 92.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM NNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alvarado to Sabancuy

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 92.4 West. Karl is
moving toward the southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through this morning. Karl is expected to
turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche
later today, and this motion should continue through early
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach
the coast of southern Mexico late tonight or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the
center of Karl reaches the coast. Steady weakening is expected
after the storm crosses the coastline, and the system is forecast
to dissipate over southern Mexico by Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center. A Mexican Navy station at Cayo Arcas recently
reported sustained winds of 34 mph (55 km/h) and a wind gust of
54 mph (86 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
The station at Cayo Arcas recently reported a pressure of 1005.2 mb
(29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 2 to 5 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday
morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with
mudslides, in higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
portions of the tropical storm warning area by late today or
tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 140535
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
100 AM CDT Fri Oct 14 2022

...POORLY-ORGANIZED KARL MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 92.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alvarado to Sabancuy

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 92.5 West. Karl is
moving toward the southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through this morning. Karl is expected to
turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche
later today, and this motion should continue through early
Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach
the coast of southern Mexico late tonight or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through this morning.
Some slight weakening is possible later today before the center of
Karl reaches the coast. Steady weakening is expected after the storm
crosses the coastline, and the system is forecast to dissipate over
southern Mexico by Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft data is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday
morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with
mudslides, in higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
portions of the tropical storm warning area by late today or
tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 140231
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Karl has a tilted vertical structure, typical for a cyclone
affected by shear. The low-level center remains on the northwestern
edge of an area of deep convection, with an elevated center found
by the plane slightly east of that location under the convective
canopy. The highest reliable surface winds sampled by the SFMR
instrument on board the aircraft were 34 kt in the southeastern
quadrant, and dropsonde data indicate that the central pressure has
fallen to 998 mb. Earlier satellite wind data suggest that some
stronger winds were occurring to the south of where the aircraft
measured the recent peak winds. Based on these data and the lack of
much change in the appearance of Karl, its assumed that cyclone
still has maximum surface winds of around 40 kt.

Karl has been deviating to the east of the previous forecast track
this evening, likely due to the ongoing downshear development of the
deep convection, and the initial motion is 135/6 kt. The storm
should turn southward by Friday and then south-southwestward by
Friday night as the system reaches the periphery of a mid-level
ridge over west-central Mexico. This south-southwestward motion is
expected to continue until Karl dissipates over Mexico in a couple
of days. The model guidance has once again shifted slightly east,
likely due to the east-of-track initial position. The latest NHC
track forecast was nudged eastward as a result. Based on the
increasing possibility of impacts farther east along the southern
Mexico coast, a Tropical Storm Warning was issued from Ciudad del
Carmen to Sabancuy.

Moderate west-northwesterly shear impacting Karl is expected to
persist until landfall. Mid-level dry air intrusions are also
forecast to continue for the next day or so. Therefore,
strengthening is unlikely. The model guidance suggests that Karl
should maintain its current intensity overnight, and perhaps
weaken slightly before it reaches the coast of southern Mexico
Friday night or early Saturday. Once inland, the cyclone should
steadily weaken on Saturday and dissipate by Saturday night.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce instances of
flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across
portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within a portion
of the warning area in southern Mexico by late Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 20.6N 92.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 19.9N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 19.0N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 18.0N 93.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 140231
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022
0300 UTC FRI OCT 14 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
EAST OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN TO SABANCUY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALVARADO TO SABANCUY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 92.8W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 45SE 45SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 92.8W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 93.1W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.9N 92.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.0N 92.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.0N 93.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 92.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 140231
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

...KARL MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 92.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM NNW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
east of Ciudad del Carmen to Sabancuy.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alvarado to Sabancuy

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 92.8 West. Karl is
moving toward the southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through tonight. Karl is expected to turn
southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche on Friday,
and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coast of
southern Mexico late Friday night or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Some slight
weakening is possible on Friday before the center of Karl reaches
the coast. Steady weakening is expected after the storm crosses the
coastline, and the system is forecast to dissipate over southern
Mexico by Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure measured by the Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday
morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with
mudslides, in higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
portions of the tropical storm warning area by late Friday or Friday
night.

SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 132355
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
700 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM KARL
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 93.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alvarado to Ciudad del Carmen

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 93.1 West. Karl is
moving toward the south-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion should continue through tonight. Karl is expected to
turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche on
Friday, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On
the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coasts of
Tabasco or Veracruz states in Mexico within the warning area late
Friday night or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so,
followed by weakening as Karl moves inland over southern Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate
that the minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday
morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with
mudslides, in higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
portions of the tropical storm warning area by late Friday or Friday
night.

SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 132035
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

The partially exposed center of Karl is evident in visible satellite
imagery this afternoon. The convective overcast has a sharp edge on
the northwestern side of the circulation, indicating that strong
west-northwesterly shear continues to impinge on the cyclone. Recent
satellite-derived wind data indicate that tropical-storm-force winds
are occurring mainly downshear of the center, where the deepest
convection has been ongoing today. Despite finding a slightly lower
minimum pressure than this morning, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
reported flight-level winds and SFMR data early this afternoon that
support lowering the initial intensity to 40 kt for this advisory,
which is consistent with recent ASCAT wind data.

The hostile environmental conditions that Karl is contending with
are not expected to improve during the next day or so. Moderate
west-northwesterly shear and continued intrusions of drier mid-level
air should make it difficult for Karl's convective organization to
improve much. The latest guidance suggests that little change in
strength or even slight weakening is possible during the next 24-36
hours as the storm moves toward the coast. The NHC track forecast
still shows Karl moving onshore as a tropical storm on Friday night
or early Saturday, then quickly weakening and eventually
dissipating over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico by
Saturday night.

Karl is moving south-southeastward at a faster forward speed than
earlier today (155/6 kt). This general motion should continue
through tonight, followed by a southward to south-southwestward
motion on Friday as Karl moves around the eastern periphery of a
mid-level ridge over west-central Mexico. The NHC track forecast has
once again been adjusted slightly eastward in the direction of the
latest multi-model consensus aids. There are still some along-track
differences noted in the guidance, with the slower GFS and HWRF
solutions moving Karl inland later than the rest of the global
models. Following a consensus approach, the NHC forecast is somewhat
faster than the previous one and shows Karl just inland by 36 h.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce flash flooding,
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of
Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within a portion
of the warning area in southern Mexico by late Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 20.9N 93.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 20.1N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 19.1N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 18.3N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/1800Z 17.5N 94.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 132035
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022
2100 UTC THU OCT 13 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALVARADO TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 93.5W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 155 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 50SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 45SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 93.5W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 93.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 20.1N 93.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.1N 93.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.3N 93.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.5N 94.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 93.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 132035
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

...KARL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 93.5W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alvarado to Ciudad del Carmen

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 93.5 West. Karl is
moving toward the south-southeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion should continue through tonight. Karl is expected to
turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche on
Friday, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On
the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coasts of
Tabasco or Veracruz states in Mexico within the warning area late
Friday night or early Saturday.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in
strength is forecast during the next day or so, followed by
weakening as Karl moves inland over southern Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 10 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico through Sunday
morning. These rains can produce flash flooding, along with
mudslides, in higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
portions of the tropical storm warning area by late Friday or Friday
night.

SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 131745
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
100 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

...KARL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 93.7W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alvarado to Ciudad del Carmen

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 93.7 West. Karl is
moving toward the south-southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
general motion should continue through tonight. Karl is expected to
turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche on
Friday, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On
the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coasts of
Tabasco or Veracruz states in Mexico within the warning area late
Friday night or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so
before Karl reaches the Bay of Campeche coast of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft data is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico from Friday into
Sunday morning. These rains could produce flash flooding, along
with mudslides, in higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
portions of the tropical storm warning area by late Friday or
Friday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 131443
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

A burst of deep convection has developed over the southeastern
portion of Karl's circulation since the previous advisory. Data from
an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA buoy 42055
indicate that the low-level center of the tropical cyclone is
located near the northeastern edge of that convection due to
northwesterly vertical wind shear. Although the aircraft has only
measured flight-level and SFMR winds to support an intensity of
around 40 kt, the advisory wind speed is maintained at 45 kt due to
the recent increase in convection. Also, this gives the plane more
time to fully examine the cyclone, as it is possible the strongest
winds have yet to be sampled. Continued northwesterly shear and the
entrainment of dry mid-level air are likely to cause some weakening
over the next day or so, but Karl is forecast to be a tropical storm
when it nears the coast of Mexico. After landfall, rapid weakening
and dissipation of the low-level circulation is expected as the
cyclone moves over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico.

Fixes from the aircraft show that Karl has finally begun its
anticipated south-southeastward turn, and the initial motion
estimate is 155/4 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northwest of Karl is
expected to steer the storm south-southeastward through tonight. A
southward to south-southwestward motion is forecast on Friday which
should bring the center of Karl to the Bay of Campeche coast Friday
night or Saturday. The guidance envelope has moved slightly
eastward this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in
that direction. There is still some spread in the models as to how
fast Karl will move southward, which results in some timing
differences regarding landfall in Mexico. The official forecast is
close to the GFEX and the other consensus aids to account for that.

Based on the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the coast of the Bay of
Campeche.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce flash flooding,
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of
Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas, and Oaxaca states in Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within a portion
of the warning area in Mexico by late Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 21.7N 93.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 21.0N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 20.0N 93.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 19.1N 93.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 18.0N 94.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 16/0000Z 17.0N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 131443
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

...KARL MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 93.9W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Alvarado eastward to Ciudad del Carmen. The Tropical Storm Watch
north of Alvarado has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alvarado to Ciudad del Carmen

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 93.9 West. Karl is
moving toward the south-southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this
general motion should continue through tonight. Karl is expected
to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche
on Friday, and this motion should continue through early Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coasts
of Tabasco or Veracruz states in Mexico late Friday night or early
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Karl is forecast to gradually lose some strength later today or
on Friday while it approaches the Bay of Campeche coast of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 42055 located just north of the center
of Karl recently reported sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a
gust to 45 mph (72 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA buoy data is 1002 mb (29.59
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz, Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico from Friday into
Sunday morning. These rains could produce flash flooding, along
with mudslides, in higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within
portions of the tropical storm warning area by late Friday or
Friday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 131442
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022
1500 UTC THU OCT 13 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
ALVARADO EASTWARD TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
NORTH OF ALVARADO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALVARADO TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 93.9W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 155 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 93.9W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 94.1W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.0N 93.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.0N 93.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.1N 93.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.0N 94.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.0N 95.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 93.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 131155
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
700 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS THAT KARL
IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 94.1W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tuxpan to Frontera

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 94.1 West. Karl is
moving toward the southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slightly
faster southeastward motion is expected later today. Karl is then
expected to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay
of Campeche on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl
should reach the coasts of Tabasco or Veracruz states in Mexico
late Friday night or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but Karl should
gradually lose some strength on Friday while it approaches the Bay
of Campeche coast of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft and buoy data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
NOAA buoy 42055 located just east of Karl recently reported a
minimum pressure of 1004 mb (29.64 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and
Tabasco states in Mexico from Friday into Saturday night. Rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with local max up to 6 inches, is also
expected across portions of Chiapas and Oaxaca. These rains can
produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting late Friday or Friday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 130835
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

Karl has become less organized since the last advisory due to the
effects of increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear. The
central convection has decreased, and the strongest convection is
now occurring in a band well east of the center. Surface wind
estimates received from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft since the last advisory were in the 40-45 kt range, and
recently-received scatterometer data showed no winds higher than 40
kt. In addition, the last aircraft-reported central pressure had
risen to 1002 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is
reduced to 45 kt.

Karl remains nearly stationary. A mid-level ridge located over
west-central Mexico and a high-amplitude mid-latitude trough over
the eastern United States are expected to impart northerly or
northwesterly flow over Karl today, which should push the cyclone
southeastward and southward into the Bay of Campeche during the
next couple of days. A turn toward the southwest could occur near
the end of the forecast period as the steering flow becomes more
northeasterly. The guidance has changed little since the previous
advisory, and the new forecast track has only minor adjustments
from the previous forecast. The new track shows the center of Karl
reaching the Mexican coast in Tabasco or Veracruz states by Saturday
morning.

A combination of northwesterly vertical wind shear and dry air
entrainment should cause Karl to gradually weaken during the next
couple of days, and the new intensity forecast shows a little more
weakening before the cyclone makes landfall. This part of the
intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity
guidance. After landfall, quick weakening is expected, with Karl
forecast to become a depression by 60 h, a remnant low by 72 h, and
dissipate by 96 h. The new intensity forecast has some minor
adjustments from the previous forecast due to the reduced initial
intensity.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce instances of
flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across
portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and Oaxaca states in Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Mexico beginning late Friday or early Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 22.4N 94.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 21.7N 93.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 20.7N 93.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 19.7N 93.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 18.7N 93.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 17.4N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/0600Z 16.4N 95.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 130834
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

...KARL REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...
...EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 94.4W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tuxpan to Frontera

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 94.4 West. Karl is
currently nearly stationary. A slow motion toward the southeast or
south-southeast should begin later today, with Karl then expected
to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche
on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach
the coasts of Tabasco or Veracruz states in Mexico late Friday night
or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but Karl should
gradually lose some strength on Friday while it approaches the Bay
of Campeche coast of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and
Tabasco states in Mexico from Friday into Saturday night. Rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with local max up to 6 inches, is also
expected across portions of Chiapas and Oaxaca. These rains can
produce flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting late Friday or Friday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 130834
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022
0900 UTC THU OCT 13 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO FRONTERA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 94.4W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 94.4W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 94.3W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.7N 93.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 20.7N 93.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.7N 93.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.7N 93.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.4N 94.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.4N 95.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 94.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 130532
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
100 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

...KARL REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...
...EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 94.3W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tuxpan to Frontera

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 94.3 West. Karl is
nearly stationary currently. A slow motion toward the southeast
should begin later today, with Karl then expected to turn southward
over the Bay of Campeche on Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Karl should reach the coasts of Tabasco or Veracruz states
in Mexico Friday night or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but Karl should
gradually lose some strength on Friday while it approaches the Bay
of Campeche coast of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and
Tabasco states in Mexico from Friday into late Saturday. Rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches, is
also expected across portions of Chiapas. These rains can produce
flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting late Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 130233
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022
0300 UTC THU OCT 13 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO FRONTERA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 94.3W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 94.3W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 94.3W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.0N 94.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.1N 93.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.1N 93.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.1N 93.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.1N 94.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.9N 94.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 94.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 130233
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

Shear is having a greater influence on Karl this evening, with
GOES-16 proxy-visible satellite imagery showing the low-level
center now exposed to the northwest of a strong cluster of deep
convection. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigating the storm found a similar peak 850-mb flight-level
wind as earlier today (57 kt), but the SFMR readings have not been
as high. However, the strongest winds from earlier were directly
east of the center, and the current aircraft has not sampled that
area of the storm. Plus, the central pressure was found to have
fallen to 1000 mb during this mission. Therefore, the initial
intensity remains 50 kt.

The center does not look like it's moved very much during the past
few hours, and that is confirmed by the aircraft fixes. A mid-level
high located over west-central Mexico and a large-amplitude
mid-latitude trough over the United States are expected to impart
northerly or northwesterly flow over Karl on Thursday, which should
push the cyclone southward into the Bay of Campeche during the next
couple of days. The track guidance has again shifted eastward a bit
on this cycle, but most of that is related to Karl's adjusted
initial position and not with any particular change in forecast
reasoning. The updated NHC track is nudged eastward from the
previous prediction, especially during the first 48 hours, and it
shows Karl reaching the coasts of Tabasco or Veracruz states in
Mexico by Saturday morning.

Deep-layer shear has increased to near 20 kt out of the west, and
that magnitude is unlikely to decrease during the next few days.
Even though ocean temperatures are about 28 degrees Celsius, a
combination of the continued shear and surrounding dry mid-level
air is expected to cause a gradual weakening trend while Karl
approaches the Bay of Campeche coast of Mexico. The NHC intensity
forecast lies between the aggressive statistical-dynamical guidance
(which show a little bit of strengthening) and the regional
hurricane models and consensus aids (which show almost immediate
weakening). Fast weakening is expected after Karl reaches land,
and the system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low, or
even dissipate, by late Saturday.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Karl could produce instances of
flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across
portions of Veracruz, Tabasco, and Chiapas states in Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Mexico beginning late Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 22.4N 94.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 22.0N 94.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 21.1N 93.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 20.1N 93.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 19.1N 93.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 18.1N 94.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/0000Z 16.9N 94.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 130233
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...KARL NEARLY STATIONARY...
...EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 94.3W
ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tuxpan to Frontera

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 94.3 West. Karl is
nearly stationary. A slow motion toward the southeast should begin
early Thursday, with Karl then expected to turn southward over the
Bay of Campeche on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of
Karl should reach the coasts of Tabasco or Veracruz states in
Mexico Friday night or early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected on Thursday, but Karl should
gradually lose some strength on Friday while it approaches the Bay
of Campeche coast of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and
Tabasco states in Mexico from Friday into late Saturday. Rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches, is
also expected across portions of Chiapas. These rains can produce
flash flooding, along with mudslides, in higher terrain.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting late Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 122353
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
700 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING KARL...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 94.2W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 030 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tuxpan to Frontera

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico later tonight or on
Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 22.4 North, longitude 94.2 West. Karl is moving toward the
north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). The tropical storm is forecast
to move little overnight, but a slow motion to the south-southeast
is expected to begin by Thursday morning. A faster generally
southward motion is forecast by late Thursday, and that motion
should continue through Friday night. On the forecast track, Karl
will approach the coast of Mexico within the watch area on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight, followed by
gradual weakening until landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

Data from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission indicate
that the minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and
Tabasco states in Mexico through Friday night. Rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches, are also expected
across portions of Chiapas. Flash flooding with mudslides in higher
terrain is possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 122055
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

The overall satellite presentation of Karl has improved since early
this morning, but the system is being affected by moderate
westerly shear. The center is located near the western edge of a
persistent cluster of convection that has cloud top temperatures of
around -80C. As mentioned in the earlier Special Advisory, an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft measured a peak 850-mb
flight level wind of 58 kt and SFMR winds of around 50 kt as it
exited the eastern portion of the storm. There has been little
overall change in structure since the plane departed, so the initial
intensity is held at 50 kt. Another reconnaissance mission into the
storm is scheduled for this evening.

Karl has continued to move northward, but its poleward progress
is forecast to end very soon. A ridge building over northern
Mexico is forecast to start steering the cyclone generally
southward later tonight or early Thursday. A southward motion
should then continue, and this motion is expected to bring
the center near the southern coast of Bay of Campeche on Friday.
The 1200 UTC dynamical model guidance suite is in slightly better
agreement, but it was once again east of the previous NHC advisory.
Another fairly significant eastward shift was required, but the
latest forecast is now closer to the consensus aids as well as
a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.

Karl is located over warm water but within an area of moderate
westerly wind shear. The shear is forecast to increase slightly,
however some additional slight strengthening is possible in the
short term. After that, the shear and slightly lower mid-level
humidity is expected to cause gradual weakening before Karl reaches
the coast of Mexico. After landfall, rapid weakening and
dissipation should occur. The NHC wind speed forecast is slightly
higher than before, and it is not much different than the latest
ICON and HCCA consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall could produce instances of flash flooding, with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz
and Tabasco states in Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Mexico beginning on Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 22.2N 94.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 22.2N 94.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 21.4N 94.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 20.5N 93.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 19.5N 93.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 18.7N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 17.5N 94.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 122054
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...KARL FORECAST TO MEANDER OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 94.4W
ABOUT 240 MI...380 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tuxpan to Frontera

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico later tonight or on
Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 94.4 West. Karl is
moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). The tropical storm
is forecast to move little overnight, but a slow motion to the
south-southeast is expected to begin by Thursday morning. A
faster generally southward motion is forecast by late Thursday, and
that motion should continue through Friday night. On the forecast
track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico within the
watch area on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible tonight, followed by gradual
weakening until landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 42055 located about 30 miles east of the
center of Karl recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72
km/h) with a gust to 51 mph (83 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and
Tabasco states in Mexico through Friday night. Rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches, are also expected
across portions of Chiapas. Flash flooding with mudslides in higher
terrain is possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 122053
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022
2100 UTC WED OCT 12 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO FRONTERA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 94.4W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 94.4W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 94.4W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.2N 94.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.4N 94.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 20.5N 93.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.5N 93.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.7N 94.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.5N 94.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 94.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 121755
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Karl Special Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
100 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Karl
found believable SFMR wind speeds between 48-52 kt east of the
center. Based on these observations, the initial intensity is
increased to 50 kt. The near-term intensity forecast has been
raised to account for the higher initial intensity. The reasoning
for the intensity forecast has not changed from the earlier
advisory. Karl is still expected to gradually weaken until
making landfall in 60-72 h.

The official track forecast has been adjusted slightly eastward at
12 and 24 hours based on its recent motion and now reflects a
hairpin turn to the right that should be complete in about 24 hours.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall could produce instances of flash flooding, with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz
and Tabasco states in Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Mexico starting on Thursday night or Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1800Z 22.0N 94.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 22.2N 94.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 21.6N 94.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 20.9N 94.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 20.0N 94.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 19.1N 94.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 18.1N 95.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 121755
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Special Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
100 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS KARL STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 94.5W
ABOUT 220 MI...360 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tuxpan to Frontera

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 94.5 West. Karl is
moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through today. A slow motion to the south and
south-southeast is expected to begin this evening and a faster
generally southward motion is forecast by Thursday morning. On the
forecast track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico within
the watch area by Friday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft support an
increase to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change
in strength is forecast overnight followed by gradual weakening
until landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and
Tabasco states in Mexico through Friday night. Rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches, is also expected
across portions of Chiapas. Flash flooding with mudslides in higher
terrain is possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 121754
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM KARL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022
1800 UTC WED OCT 12 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO FRONTERA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 94.5W AT 12/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 75SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 94.5W AT 12/1800Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 94.8W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.2N 94.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.6N 94.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 20.9N 94.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.0N 94.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.1N 94.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.1N 95.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 94.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/CANGIALOSI/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 121737
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Karl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1235 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS KARL STRONGER...

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that Karl has strengthened. The maximum sustained winds are
estimated to be 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. A special
advisory will be issued by 1 PM CDT (1800 UTC) to reflect the
higher initial intensity and it will replace the intermediate
advisory.


SUMMARY OF 1235 PM CDT...1735 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 94.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 121454
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

Despite the ragged satellite presentation, Karl has slightly
strengthened this morning. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft investigating the storm found SFMR wind speeds of 37 kt
and a decreased extrapolated minimum central pressure. Given these
data, the initial intensity was raised to 40 kt on the earlier
intermediate advisory, and it remains at that value for now.

Karl is slowly moving northward at about 3 kt. A general northward
motion is forecast for the next 12 hours. Thereafter, a building
ridge over northern Mexico is expected to steer Karl generally
southward until it makes landfall between 60-72 h. The model
guidance has continued to shift eastward and shows Karl making the
hairpin turn to the right, instead of left as shown in earlier
cycles. The official track forecast has been shifted rather
significantly to the east in order to remain within the model
guidance envelope. The NHC track, however, is on the westernmost
edge of the envelope, and should the guidance continue to shift
eastward, further adjustments may be needed in future advisories.
The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended eastward to Frontera,
Mexico to account for the shift in the track forecast.

Based on the satellite appearance, the deep-layer vertical wind
shear over Karl seems to be increasing. Global model guidance
suggests the shear will continue to increase and possible force
dry mid-level humidities located upshear into the circulation.
Therefore, the official intensity forecast no longer shows
additional strengthening and instead holds Karl at 40 kt for the
next day or so followed by slight weakening before landfall. The
cyclone is expected to rapidly decay and dissipate once it moves
inland.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall could produce instances of flash flooding, with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz
and Tabasco states in Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Mexico starting on Thursday night or Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 21.7N 94.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 22.0N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 21.6N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 20.9N 94.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 20.0N 94.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 19.1N 94.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 18.1N 95.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 121453
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS KARL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 94.7W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Watch
eastward to Frontera. The Tropical Storm Watch from Cabo Rojo to
Tuxpan has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tuxpan to Frontera

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 94.7 West. Karl is
moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through today. A slow drift to the south and
south-southeast is expected to begin this evening and a faster
generally southward motion is forecast by Thursday morning. On the
forecast track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico within
the watch area by Friday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft support
maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours
followed by slight weakening before landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and
Tabasco states in Mexico through Friday night. Rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches, is also expected
across portions of Chiapas. Flash flooding with mudslides in higher
terrain is possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 121452
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022
1500 UTC WED OCT 12 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
EASTWARD TO FRONTERA. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CABO ROJO TO
TUXPAN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO FRONTERA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 94.7W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 75SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 94.7W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 94.8W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.0N 94.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.6N 94.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 20.9N 94.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.0N 94.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.1N 94.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.1N 95.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 94.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 121156
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 3a
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
700 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...KARL MOVING SLOWLY AND BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 94.8W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ENE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Rojo to Roca Partida

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 94.8 West. Karl is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through today. A slow drift to the
west and west-southwest is expected to begin later this morning and
a somewhat faster motion toward the south-southwest is forecast by
Thursday morning. On the forecast track, Karl will be approaching
the coast of Mexico within the watch area by Thursday night.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft support
maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is expected for the next day or so,
followed by gradual weakening on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.64 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches, with local
maxima up to 12 inches of rain across portions of Veracruz and
Tabasco states in Mexico through Friday night. Flash flooding with
mudslides in higher terrain is possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting Thursday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 120837
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

Karl has not changed much in organization over the past several
hours. The central convection is currently minimal, with the
primary convection occurring in bands somewhat removed from the
center in the eastern semicircle. NOAA buoy 42055 located to the
northeast of the center has reported 1-min average winds of up to
33 kt, and based on this plus a satellite intensity estimate from
TAFB, the initial intensity remains 35 kt.

The initial motion is 340/5 kt. A general north-northwestward
motion is expected to continue through today. After that, a ridge
of high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest of Karl over
northern Mexico. The flow around the southeastern flank of this
anticyclone is expected to cause Karl to make a left hairpin turn
and move southward to south-southwestward by 36-48 h. The latest
track guidance has shifted eastward from the previous runs, with
several models now showing a right hairpin turn and a east of south
motion toward the coast of Mexico. The new forecast track is
shifted eastward from the previous forecast, but lies to the west of
the current consensus models. If the models do not shift back
westward, additional eastward adjustments may be necessary later
today.

Karl is currently located within an environment of light to moderate
southwesterly shear and over warm sea surface temperatures. This
should allow some strengthening through the next 24 h. After that
time, increasing northwesterly shear and decreasing mid-level
relative humidity are likely to cause some weakening before
landfall. After Karl moves onshore, rapid decay is expected due to
the mountainous terrain, and Karl is likely to dissipate just after
72 h. The new intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from
the previous forecast and is on the high side of the intensity
guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall could produce instances of flash flooding, with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Vera Cruz
and Tabasco states in Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Mexico starting on Thursday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 21.1N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 21.7N 95.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 21.7N 95.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 20.9N 95.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 20.2N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 19.5N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 18.6N 96.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 120835
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022
0900 UTC WED OCT 12 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO ROCA PARTIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 94.9W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 30SE 50SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 94.9W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 94.8W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.7N 95.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.7N 95.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 20.9N 95.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 20.2N 95.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.5N 95.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.6N 96.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 94.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 120835
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...KARL MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 94.9W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Rojo to Roca Partida

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 94.9 West. Karl is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through today. A slow drift to the
west and west-southwest is expected to begin this evening and a
somewhat faster motion toward the south-southwest is forecast by
Thursday morning. On the forecast track, Karl will be approaching
the coast of Mexico within the watch area on Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected for the next day or so, followed
by gradual weakening on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 42055, located northeast of the center,
recently reported sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a wind
gust of 42 mph (68 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches, with local
maxima up to 12 inches of rain across portions of Vera Cruz and
Tabasco states in Mexico through Friday night. Flash flooding with
mudslides in higher terrain is possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting Thursday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to effect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 120543
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
100 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...KARL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 94.9W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Rojo to Roca Partida

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 94.9 West. Karl is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through today. A turn to the west
and west-southwest is expected this evening and a turn to the
southwest is forecast by Thursday morning. On the forecast track,
Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico within the watch area
on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected for the next day or so,
followed by gradual weakening on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. During the past few hours, NOAA buoy 42055
located to the northeast of the center reported sustained winds of
36 mph (57 km/h) and a wind gust of 40 mph (65 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals:

*Isthmus of Tehuantepec...3 to 6 inches, with local maximum up to
10 inches.
*Southern Sierra Madre Oriental and adjacent coast...2 to 4 inches
with local maximum up to 6 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to effect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 120236
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

Bursts of deep convection have continued to develop this evening
near and to the northeast of the estimated center. Data from the
earlier reconnaissance mission into Karl showed that the circulation
was elongated along a south-southeast to north-northwest axis with
at least a couple of swirls that are likely rotating around the
mean center. The plane did not find flight-level or SFMR winds any
stronger than what was reported before the release of the previous
advisory. Therefore, the initial intensity is maintained at 35 kt,
which is slightly above the latest Dvorak satellite estimates. The
next reconnaissance mission into Karl is scheduled for Wednesday
morning.

Karl is moving north-northwestward or 330/5 kt, and this general
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. After that time,
a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest of
Karl over northern Mexico. The flow around the southeastern flank
of that anticyclone is expected to cause Karl to turn southwestward
Wednesday night. This motion should then bring the cyclone near the
coast of Mexico within the watch area on Thursday. The latest
dynamical model guidance depicts a sharper turn Wednesday night and
the official forecast was adjusted southward, and a bit faster than
the previous forecast at 36 h and beyond. This southward
adjustment required the government of Mexico to extend the Tropical
Storm Watch southward to Roca Partida. The new NHC track forecast
is close to the simple consensus aids and is also in good
agreement with the ECMWF model.

Karl is currently located within an environment of generally light
southwesterly shear and over warm sea surface temperatures. This
should allow some strengthening tonight or on Wednesday. After that
time, increasing northwesterly shear and decreasing mid-level
relative humidity are likely to cause some weakening before
landfall. After Karl moves onshore, rapid decay is expected due to
the mountainous terrain, and Karl is likely to dissipate in around
72 hours.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding in the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec and in the southern Sierra Madre Oriental mountains and
adjacent coastal areas with possible mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Mexico starting Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 20.5N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 21.0N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 21.4N 95.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 21.1N 95.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 20.2N 96.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 19.4N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 15/0000Z 19.1N 97.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 120234
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

...KARL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WHILE IT MOVES
SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 94.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Watch
southward to Roca Partida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Rojo to Roca Partida

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 94.9 West. Karl is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn to the
west and west-southwest is expected on Wednesday evening and a turn
to the southwest is forecast by Thursday morning. On the forecast
track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico within the
watch area on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected for the next day or so, followed
by gradual weakening on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals:

*Isthmus of Tehuantepec...3 to 6 inches, with local maximum up to
10 inches.
*Southern Sierra Madre Oriental and adjacent coast...2 to 4 inches
with local maximum up to 6 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to effect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 120234
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022
0300 UTC WED OCT 12 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
SOUTHWARD TO ROCA PARTIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO ROCA PARTIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 94.9W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 94.9W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 94.8W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.0N 95.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.4N 95.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.1N 95.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 20.2N 96.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.4N 96.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.1N 97.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 94.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 112347
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
700 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

...KARL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 94.8W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Rojo to Puerto Veracruz

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 94.8 West. Karl is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next day or so. A gradual turn to the
west and west-southwest is expected on Wednesday evening and a turn
to the southwest is forecast on Thursday morning. On the forecast
track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected for the next day or so,
followed by gradual weakening on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance data is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals:

*Isthmus of Tehuantepec...3 to 6 inches, with local maximum up to
10 inches.
*Southern Sierra Madre Oriental and adjacent coast...2 to 4 inches
with local maximum up to 6 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Karl are expected to effect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 112053
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

Tropical Storm Karl has formed over the Bay of Campeche. Aircraft
and scatterometer data show a closed circulation with a relatively
large radius of maximum winds and a broad area of light and variable
winds near the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter
reconnaissance aircraft found believable SFMR wind speeds of 35 kt
and flight-level winds up to 46 kt while investigating the system.
The scatterometer data also showed a large area of 30-35 kt winds to
the north of the center. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt
based on these data.

Karl is moving slowly northwestward at an estimated 5 kt. The storm
is embedded in a high pressure system, and this motion is expected
to continue for the next day or so. Thereafter, the ridge is likely
to build westward and steer the cyclone southwestward into the coast
of Mexico in a few days. The official forecast is close to the
consensus guidance, though this is an uncertain forecast due to the
spread in the forecast track models near landfall.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are forecast to be conducive for
Karl during the next day or so. This should allow Karl to
strengthen before global models suggest the vertical wind shear
increases and causes gradual weakening before landfall. Rapid decay
is expected once the storm moves inland due to the mountainous
terrain. The NHC intensity forecast peaks at 45 kt in 24 h which is
close to the SHIPS guidance, though all of guidance is clustered
near this value.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding in the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec and in the southern Sierra Madre Oriental mountains and
adjacent coastal areas with possible mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Mexico starting Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 19.6N 94.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 20.3N 94.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 21.1N 95.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 21.2N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 20.7N 96.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 20.2N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 19.9N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 112052
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022

...KARL FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 94.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
the coast of Mexico from Cabo Rojo southward to Puerto Veracruz.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Rojo to Puerto Veracruz

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 94.4 West. Karl is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next day or so. A gradual turn to the
west and west-southwest is expected on Wednesday evening and
a turn to the southwest is forecast on Thursday morning. On the
forecast track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected for the next day or so, followed
by gradual weakening on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Karl is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals:

*Isthmus of Tehuantepec...3 to 6 inches, with local maximum up to
10 inches.
*Southern Sierra Madre Oriental and adjacent coast...2 to 4 inches
with local maximum up to 6 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting Thursday.

SURF: Swells generate by Karl are expected to effect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 112051
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142022
2100 UTC TUE OCT 11 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO VERACRUZ.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO PUERTO VERACRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 94.4W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 94.4W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 94.2W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.3N 94.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.1N 95.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.2N 96.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 20.7N 96.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 20.2N 96.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.9N 97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 94.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/BLAKE

>