Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KARL-22
in Mexico

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone KARL-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1000934
Name KARL-22
From - To 11 Oct - 15 Oct
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 93 km/h Tropical storm
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (15 Oct 05:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS NOAA 46 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 86 km/h 0.4 m 392 mm 0.5
GFS 76 km/h 0.5 m 489 mm 0.5
ECMWF 54 km/h 0.8 m 523 mm 0.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Mexico - Tropical Storm KARL (ECHO 12 Oct 2022)Wed, 12 Oct 2022 08:54

  • Tropical Storm KARL formed over the western Gulf of Mexico on 11 October and started moving northwestward along the coast of central-eastern Mexico. On 12 October at 06.00 UTC, its centre was located approximately 200 km north-east of Veracruz City (central Veracruz State), with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h.
  • On 12-13 October, KARL is forecast to continue moving offshore northwestward and to turn southwest toward the coast of central Veracruz. After that, it is expected to make landfall over this area on 14 October in the morning (UTC), with maximum sustained winds up to 70 km/h.
  • On 13-14 October, heavy rainfall and strong winds are forecast over central-eastern Mexico. NOAA has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for most of the coast of Veracruz.
Mexico - Tropical Storm KARL (ECHO 14 Oct 2022)Fri, 14 Oct 2022 10:59

  • Tropical Storm KARL is moving southwest over the Bay of Campeche and on 14 October at 06.00 UTC, its centre was located approximately 210 km north-northwest of Ciudad del Carmen (Campeche State, south-eastern Mexico), with maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h.
  • Karl is expected to move southward, and it will reach the coast of Tabasco State very close to ParaísoTown on 14-15 October.
  • On 14-16 October, heavy rain and strong winds are forecast over parts of Veracruz, Tabasco, Campeche, northern Chiapas and Oaxaca States in Mexico. A tropical storm warning is in effect from Alvarado (Veracruz) to Sabancuy (Campeche).
Mexico - Tropical Storm KARL, update (ECHO 17 Oct 2022)Mon, 17 Oct 2022 09:05

  • Tropical Storm KARL passed along the coast of south-eastern Mexico on 15-16 October, causing very heavy rainfall and triggering floods and landslides that have resulted in casualties and damage. The most affected States are: Tabasco, Veracruz, Chiapas and Oaxaca.
  • Media report, as of 17 October, three fatalities, of which two in Pichucalco Municipality (southern Chiapas) and one more in Puerto Arista Town (northern Chiapas). In addition, media also report more than 1,000 evacuated people across southern Chiapas, and 35 evacuated families across the Ostuacan Municipality (northern Chiapas)
  • Over the next 24 hours, more heavy rainfall is forecast over southern Mexico, including the already affected States of Tabasco, Veracruz, Chiapas and Oaxaca.
Detailed event map. European Union, 2022. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

Latest media headlines

Articles: 163 | About casualties: 5 | Last hour: 0

Natural Hazards Monitoring - 17 October 20222022-10-19T04:42+0200.

Official. Severe weather. Mexico. On 16 October 2022, as per the Chiapas State Civil Protection provided information regarding Tropical Storm KARL on 15 and 16 October 2022. A distribution center for food, water and other supplies for those
...(more)
South Florida's first big cool front is on the doorstep; late October ... 2022-10-18T13:40+0200.

It’s been a hot, humid and storm-stressed summer for South Floridians as we patiently wait for a cool front to arrive this week that will give everyone a much-needed taste of fall. The first big one arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday with
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Climate change: These countries are struggling with extreme weather ev ... 2022-10-17T13:23+0200.

: Months after the UN-led Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted that extreme weather events will become frequent and more intense, countries across the world are facing the consequences. From biblical floods in Pakistan
...(more)
Tropical storm Karl leaves one dead in Mexico2022-10-17T13:02+0200.

The hurricane season is expected to be more active than usual in 2022. One person has died and some 2,000 others have been evicted from their homes in the Mexican state of Chiapas as a consequence of tropical storm Karl, it was reported Sun
...(more)

Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (39), (2), DesInventar (1), WMO (1), INFORM (2),