Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARGOT-23
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 171437
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Margot Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
300 PM GMT Sun Sep 17 2023

Margot has lacked organized deep convection since around 00 UTC and
is no longer a tropical cyclone. Therefore, this is the last NHC
advisory.

The latest Dvorak current intensity estimate from TAFB is the basis
for the 35 kt initial intensity. Regeneration in the short term is
not expected due to high wind shear and dry surrounding air. With no
deep convection, the cyclone's winds should gradually decrease over
the next day or so. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to turn
slowly northward today and tonight, and then turn eastward by
Tuesday in the wake of Post-Tropical Lee, which will be passing well
to the north. While Margot's maximum winds could fluctuate slightly
during this time, it could also open into a trough as early as
Tuesday. After that, the cyclone or its remnants should meander west
of the Azores for a day or two until it ultimately dissipates
southeast of Nigel late this week.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 34.6N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 18/0000Z 35.3N 43.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/1200Z 36.8N 43.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0000Z 38.2N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1200Z 38.4N 37.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 20/0000Z 37.7N 34.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1200Z 37.2N 33.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 171436
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Margot Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
300 PM GMT Sun Sep 17 2023

...MARGOT NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.6N 42.4W
ABOUT 885 MI...1430 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Margot
was located near latitude 34.6 North, longitude 42.4 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph
(15 km/h). A clockwise turn resulting in a motion toward the east
is expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Small fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next few
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Margot will continue to affect the Azores
for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 171436
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 42.4W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 240SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 42.4W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 42.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.3N 43.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 36.8N 43.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 38.2N 41.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 38.4N 37.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 37.7N 34.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 37.2N 33.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.6N 42.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 170844
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
900 AM GMT Sun Sep 17 2023

There haven't been a lot of changes with Margot overnight, with no
associated deep convection and an exposed low-level center. The
initial wind speed is lowered to 35 kt in accordance with the latest
Dvorak estimates. Very dry mid-level air and upper-level
convergence will likely prevent any re-development of convection,
so the storm is now forecast to become post-tropical later today.
No significant changes were made to the intensity forecast, with a
slight increase in winds possible as Margot interacts with an
upper-level trough in a couple of days, but not as a tropical
cyclone.

Margot is moving westward at about 8 kt. It should turn northward
within 24 hours and then eastward or east-southeastward as it moves
around the subtropical ridge, finally dissipating in the hostile
environment. The new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of
the previous one, near or just south of the model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 34.0N 41.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 34.5N 42.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/0600Z 35.8N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1800Z 37.4N 42.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0600Z 38.2N 39.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 19/1800Z 38.0N 35.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 20/0600Z 37.0N 33.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0600Z 36.5N 31.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 170842
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
900 AM GMT Sun Sep 17 2023

...MARGOT MAY NOT LAST MUCH LONGER...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 41.4W
ABOUT 850 MI...1365 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Margot was
located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 41.4 West. Margot is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). Margot is expected to
turn northward on Monday and eastward on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the
next 72 hours, and Margot could degenerate into a post-tropical
cyclone later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Margot should continue to affect the
Azores for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 170842
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
0900 UTC SUN SEP 17 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 41.4W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 90SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 270SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 41.4W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 41.0W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.5N 42.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 35.8N 43.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 37.4N 42.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 38.2N 39.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 38.0N 35.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 37.0N 33.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 36.5N 31.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 41.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 170245
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
300 AM GMT Sun Sep 17 2023

Strong northerly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air have
taken a toll on Margot during the past 24 hours. Deep convection
became displaced to the south of the center earlier today, and
within the past 6 hours or so, the deep convection has essentially
dissipated. The initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt,
which is a blend of the latest Dvorak T and CI numbers from TAFB.

Margot has completed a clockwise loop over the past few days, and
the storm is now moving westward at 7 kt. A mid-level ridge to the
north of Margot should steer the cyclone westward to
west-northwestward for about another 24 hours. After that time, the
ridge is predicted to slide eastward and then southward causing
Margot to turn northward, and then east-northeastward to eastward
around the northern side of the ridge. The track guidance continues
to be in good agreement with this scenario and only minor
adjustments to the previous NHC track were needed.

The environment ahead of Margot is not expected to improve during
the next couple of days. Moderate to strong shear and dry air is
likely to prevent the return of organized deep convection during the
next day or two, Margot is now forecast to become a post-tropical
cyclone during that time. On Monday night into Tuesday, the cyclone
is forecast to interact with an approaching mid-latitude trough that
could produce enough instability to allow for a return of deep
convection and some slight restrengthening. Shortly after that
time, northwesterly shear and another surge of dry air should cause
a gradual spin down of the winds.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 33.9N 40.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 34.1N 41.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 35.1N 43.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1200Z 36.5N 43.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0000Z 37.9N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/1200Z 38.3N 37.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 20/0000Z 37.8N 35.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 21/0000Z 37.0N 32.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/0000Z 37.6N 29.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 170244
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
300 AM GMT Sun Sep 17 2023

...MARGOT WEAKENS...
...FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 40.5W
ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Margot was
located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 40.5 West. Margot is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) A westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 24 hours.
A faster northward to northeastward motion is forecast to begin
Sunday night, and a east-northeastward is expected Monday and
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
day or so, and Margot is now forecast to become a post-tropical
cyclone by Sunday night or Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Margot will continue to affect the
Azores for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 170244
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
0300 UTC SUN SEP 17 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 40.5W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......160NE 90SE 70SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 210SE 270SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 40.5W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 40.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 34.1N 41.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.1N 43.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 36.5N 43.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 37.9N 41.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 38.3N 37.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 37.8N 35.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 37.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 37.6N 29.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 40.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 162036
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
900 PM GMT Sat Sep 16 2023

Tropical Storm Margot's low-level center remains exposed, as strong
northerly upper-level winds displace the deep convection to the
south and west. The CIRA Layered Precipitable Water satellite
product shows that Margot has been nearly encircled by dry mid-level
air. The subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB and the
objective intensity estimates support an initial intensity of 45 kt
for this advisory.

Since the last advisory, Margot has turned westward at 270/7 kt. The
tropical storm is forecast to continue a clockwise loop around a
mid-level ridge. As the ridge builds southeastward, Margot will
turn north, then back towards the east around the northern side of
the ridge. An eastward motion is forecast through the remainder of
the forecast period. No significant changes were made to the track
forecast.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are not expected to improve
through the forecast period. Model guidance continues to show that
Margot could lose its deep convection and degenerate into a remnant
low sooner than forecast. However, on Monday Margot is forecast to
interact with the southern periphery of a shortwave trough arriving
from the northwest. This could introduce enough instability to allow
convection to reform and for the system to slightly re-intensify. By
Wednesday, Margot will be left behind by the shortwave and should
degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone west of the Azores.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 34.3N 39.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 34.1N 40.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 34.6N 42.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 35.8N 42.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 37.1N 41.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 38.2N 39.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 38.2N 36.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 37.4N 32.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 21/1800Z 37.5N 29.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 162035
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
900 PM GMT Sat Sep 16 2023

...MARGOT MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.3N 39.6W
ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Margot was
located near latitude 34.3 North, longitude 39.6 West. Margot is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and it is expected to
continue making a slow clockwise loop during the next day or two. A
faster northeastward to eastward motion is forecast by early next
week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, though
slight fluctuations in intensity are possible.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Margot will continue to affect the
Azores for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 162034
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 39.6W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......220NE 150SE 90SW 190NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 210SE 240SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 39.6W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 39.2W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.1N 40.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.6N 42.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 35.8N 42.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 37.1N 41.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 38.2N 39.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 38.2N 36.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 37.4N 32.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 37.5N 29.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 39.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER MAHONEY/BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 161454
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
300 PM GMT Sat Sep 16 2023

Margot's structure has continued to degrade, with the low level
center now exposed on visible satellite imagery. Deep convection is
mainly limited to the southern semicircle of the tropical storm. Dry
air is also wrapping around the western and southern side of Margot.
The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB both
support an initial intensity of 45 kt.

Margot has maintained its southwestward heading and is moving
slightly faster, with an initial estimate of 215/7 kt. Since the
tropical storm has yet to turn due west, the official forecast shows
a slightly larger clockwise loop around a mid-level ridge through 48
hours. This is on the eastern edge of the model consensus aids. As
the mid-level ridge builds south-eastward, Margot is expected to
turn back towards the east and potentially interact with a shortwave
trough arriving from the northwest. Beyond 48 hours, the NHC
forecast is slightly south of and slower than the previous forecast,
closest to the HCCA consensus aid.

Environmental conditions are not expected to improve, with
moderate-to-strong northerly vertical wind shear, dry mid-level
relative humidities, and sea surface temperatures of 26 Celsius or
less through the forecast period. As a result, weakening is forecast
in the near-term, and simulated satellite IR imagery from the GFS
and ECMWF shows a notable lack of deep convection during this time.
By Monday night, Margot is expected to begin interacting with a
mid-latitude shortwave trough. This could allow for some slight
re-intensification, as is shown in the official forecast. Margot is
not expected to be absorbed by the trough and is forecast to
degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone west of the Azores.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 34.4N 38.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 34.1N 40.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 34.3N 41.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 35.1N 43.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 36.5N 42.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 37.9N 40.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 38.6N 37.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 37.8N 33.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 21/1200Z 38.0N 30.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 161453
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
300 PM GMT Sat Sep 16 2023

...MARGOT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT JOGS TO THE SOUTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 38.7W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Margot was
located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 38.7 West. Margot is
moving toward the southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and is
expected to continue making a slow clockwise loop during the next
day or two. A faster northeastward to eastward motion is forecast
by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple
of days, though slight fluctuations in intensity are possible.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Margot will continue to affect the
Azores for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Mahoney/Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 161453
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 38.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......200NE 150SE 130SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 210SE 260SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 38.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 38.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 34.1N 40.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 34.3N 41.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.1N 43.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 36.5N 42.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 37.9N 40.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 38.6N 37.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 37.8N 33.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 38.0N 30.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 38.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER MAHONEY/BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 160855
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
900 AM GMT Sat Sep 16 2023

This morning, Margo's structure on satellite imagery has degraded
some. Cloud top temperatures surrounding the tropical cyclone have
been gradually warming, and there is evidence of northerly vertical
wind shear beginning to impinge on the storm due to flow from a
poleward amplifying upper-level anticyclone. The subjective
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have been slowly decreasing,
though the AiDT, D-PRINT, AND D-MINT estimates remain a bit higher. A
compromise of these various data support a slightly weaker intensity
of 50 kt on this advisory.

Margot continues to execute a slow clockwise turn, with the
estimated motion now southwestward at 220/6 kt. A gradual turn to
the west and then northwest is anticipated over the next 24-36 hours
as the cyclone rounds the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge
shifting gradually northeast of Margot. It is interesting to note
that Margot's track evolution over the last several days appears to
have been remotely influenced by Lee, where mid-level height rises
north of the tropical storm are in part related to diabatic ridge
building downstream of Lee. Ultimately the same trough that is
phasing with post-tropical cyclone Lee will pick up Margot as well,
with the cyclone turning northeast and even eastward by the end of
the forecast. The latest track forecast is not far off the previous
forecast, but a little farther to the south and west over the first
day or so, adjusting a bit towards the reliable consensus aids.

The vertical wind shear diagnosed by SHIPS guidance is not expected
to abate much over the next 24 hours, and Margot will be moving over
its own cold wake it previously generated along its forecast track.
Thus, weakening is anticipated, and simulated satellite imagery from
both the GFS and ECMWF suggest that the cyclone may cease to produce
enough convection to qualify as a tropical cyclone sometime in the
36-48 hour period, though this is not explicitly shown. However,
most of the guidance agrees a favorable trough interaction may
result in a convective resurgence in the 60-72 h time period, and
the latest intensity forecast shows some re-intensification during
that time period. The trough is expected to ultimately leave behind
Margot, with increasing shear and cooler sea-surface temperatures
likely to result in the system becoming a post-tropical cyclone for
good in the day 4-5 day time period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 35.0N 38.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 34.5N 39.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 34.3N 41.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 34.8N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 36.0N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 37.7N 41.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 38.9N 39.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 38.5N 33.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 21/0600Z 38.5N 29.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 160852
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
900 AM GMT Sat Sep 16 2023

...MARGOT A LITTLE WEAKER AS IT CONTINUES A CLOCKWISE LOOP OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.0N 38.3W
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Margot was
located near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 38.3 West. Margot is
moving toward the southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and is expected to
continue making a slow clockwise loop during the next day or two. A
faster northeastward to eastward motion is forecast by early next
week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
day or so, though Margot may re-intensify some by early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 300 miles (480 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Margot will continue to affect the
Azores for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Papin

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 160852
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 38.3W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
34 KT.......260NE 180SE 130SW 220NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 210SE 270SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 38.3W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 38.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.5N 39.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.3N 41.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.8N 42.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 36.0N 43.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 37.7N 41.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 38.9N 39.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 38.5N 33.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 38.5N 29.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.0N 38.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 160851
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 38.3W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
34 KT.......260NE 180SE 130SW 220NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 210SE 270SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 38.3W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 38.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.5N 39.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.3N 41.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.8N 42.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 36.0N 43.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 37.7N 41.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 38.9N 39.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 38.5N 33.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 38.5N 29.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.0N 38.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 160236
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
300 AM GMT Sat Sep 16 2023

Margot's satellite presentation has changed little since the
previous advisory. A timely ASCAT-B overpass revealed peak winds of
around 50 kt, and a rather expansive wind field over the northern
semicircle of the storm. Since there is typically some
undersampling from the ASCAT instrument, the initial intensity
remains 55 kt for this advisory. This intensity is also in line
with the latest TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate of T3.5 or 55 kt.

Margot is moving south-southwestward at about 4 kt. The tropical
storm should turn southwestward to westward during the next day or
so as it completes a clockwise loop to the south of a mid-level
ridge. By early next week, the ridge should continue to slide
eastward allowing Margot to turn northward, and then east-
northeastward later in the period. The track guidance has again
trended toward a more southern and slower solution near the end of
the period, and the official forecast has been adjusted
accordingly.

Northerly vertical wind shear, marginal sea surface temperatures,
and dry air entrainment are expected to cause gradual weakening
during the next couple of days. Margot may struggle to produce
organized deep convection in a couple of days, but an approaching
mid-latitude trough may aid in at least a continuation of convective
bursts keeping Margot a tropical cyclone. By day 4, Margot is
forecast to be post-tropical as simulated satellite imagery from the
global models suggest the system will become devoid of convection
after that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 35.5N 38.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 35.0N 38.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 34.4N 40.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 34.6N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 35.3N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 36.9N 42.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 38.6N 40.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 38.5N 34.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 21/0000Z 38.2N 31.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 160235
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
300 AM GMT Sat Sep 16 2023

...MARGOT MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AND MAKING A LOOP OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 38.0W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Margot was
located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 38.0 West. Margot is
moving toward the south-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and is
expected to make a slow clockwise loop during the next day or two.
A faster northeastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast by
Monday.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual
weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 300 miles (480 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Margot will continue to affect the
Azores for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 160235
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
0300 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 38.0W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
34 KT.......260NE 140SE 130SW 220NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 210SE 270SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 38.0W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 37.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 35.0N 38.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...210NE 120SE 110SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 34.4N 40.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 34.6N 42.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.3N 43.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 36.9N 42.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 38.6N 40.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 38.5N 34.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 38.2N 31.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.5N 38.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 152041
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
900 PM GMT Fri Sep 15 2023

Margot has changed little in appearance since the last advisory.
Visible imagery still shows a broad and robust low-level circulation
with occasional bursts of convection near the center. A couple
microwave passes over the past few hours showed some fragmented
curved bands in the northeast quadrant. Given little change in
appearance, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt, closest to the
TAFB Dvorak estimate.

The tropical storm is still drifting southeastward at 4 kt. Margot
is on the southeast side of a building mid-level ridge and expected
to complete a clockwise turn by Sunday. Early next week, the storm
should begin a northward motion followed by a turn to the east. By
days 4 and 5 there is more uncertainty in the track forecast. The
model guidance has shifted south and trended slower than the
previous NHC track forecast. The biggest changes in the track
forecast for this advisory show a noticeable shift to the south and
a decrease in forward motion late in the forecast period.

Environmental conditions are relatively hostile and should cause a
continued weakening trend. Still, marginal sea surface temperatures
could lead to periodic flares of convection. Therefore, the latest
NHC intensity forecast shows a gradual weakening associated with the
expected spin down. Margot is still expected to become a
post-tropical cyclone by day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 36.0N 37.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 35.5N 38.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 34.8N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 34.6N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 35.2N 42.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 36.2N 42.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 37.9N 41.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 39.2N 36.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 39.0N 31.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 152040
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
900 PM GMT Fri Sep 15 2023

...MARGOT MAKING A SLOW LOOP OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.0N 37.9W
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Margot was
located near latitude 36.0 North, longitude 37.9 West. Margot is
moving toward the southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and is expected to
make a slow clockwise loop during the next day or two. A faster
northeastward motion is forecast by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional weakening is forecast during the next couple
of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 300 miles (480 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Margot will continue to affect the
Azores for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 152040
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 37.9W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......260NE 140SE 100SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..380NE 220SE 260SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 37.9W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 37.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 35.5N 38.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 130SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.8N 39.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.6N 41.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 35.2N 42.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 36.2N 42.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 37.9N 41.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 39.2N 36.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 39.0N 31.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.0N 37.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 151613

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 15.09.2023

HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 35.2N 67.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2023 0 35.2N 67.0W 965 61
0000UTC 16.09.2023 12 38.4N 66.3W 961 71
1200UTC 16.09.2023 24 42.1N 66.5W 962 50
0000UTC 17.09.2023 36 44.7N 66.1W 980 42
1200UTC 17.09.2023 48 47.1N 63.1W 990 37
0000UTC 18.09.2023 60 49.5N 58.2W 995 30
1200UTC 18.09.2023 72 53.1N 47.2W 993 35
0000UTC 19.09.2023 84 54.5N 32.8W 986 35
1200UTC 19.09.2023 96 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 43.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2023 0 13.7N 43.2W 1010 22
0000UTC 16.09.2023 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 135.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP942023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2023 0 14.7N 135.4W 1007 25
0000UTC 16.09.2023 12 14.5N 137.0W 1008 24
1200UTC 16.09.2023 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT ANALYSED POSITION : 36.3N 38.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142023

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2023 0 36.3N 38.5W 987 43
0000UTC 16.09.2023 12 35.5N 38.0W 992 45
1200UTC 16.09.2023 24 34.7N 38.7W 997 40
0000UTC 17.09.2023 36 33.9N 40.6W 1002 36
1200UTC 17.09.2023 48 33.8N 42.4W 1006 31
0000UTC 18.09.2023 60 34.4N 43.6W 1009 28
1200UTC 18.09.2023 72 35.8N 43.9W 1010 28
0000UTC 19.09.2023 84 37.3N 42.7W 1011 27
1200UTC 19.09.2023 96 38.3N 39.6W 1008 38
0000UTC 20.09.2023 108 37.6N 37.2W 1009 32
1200UTC 20.09.2023 120 36.8N 36.3W 1012 25
0000UTC 21.09.2023 132 37.3N 35.4W 1013 24
1200UTC 21.09.2023 144 39.1N 34.3W 1013 23
0000UTC 22.09.2023 156 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 22.9N 50.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2023 60 23.6N 50.6W 1009 25
1200UTC 18.09.2023 72 25.6N 51.4W 1008 29
0000UTC 19.09.2023 84 26.8N 52.9W 1007 34
1200UTC 19.09.2023 96 28.1N 54.4W 1005 31
0000UTC 20.09.2023 108 30.1N 56.1W 1005 33
1200UTC 20.09.2023 120 32.2N 56.7W 1004 34
0000UTC 21.09.2023 132 34.2N 55.5W 1003 38
1200UTC 21.09.2023 144 36.0N 52.7W 1001 39
0000UTC 22.09.2023 156 37.2N 48.8W 996 40
1200UTC 22.09.2023 168 37.8N 42.7W 989 55

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 39.4N 0.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.09.2023 168 39.5N 0.4W 1012 26

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 14.7N 35.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.09.2023 168 14.7N 35.2W 1008 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 151613

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 151613

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.09.2023

HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 35.2N 67.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.09.2023 35.2N 67.0W STRONG
00UTC 16.09.2023 38.4N 66.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2023 42.1N 66.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2023 44.7N 66.1W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 17.09.2023 47.1N 63.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.09.2023 49.5N 58.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2023 53.1N 47.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2023 54.5N 32.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 43.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.09.2023 13.7N 43.2W WEAK
00UTC 16.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 135.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP942023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.09.2023 14.7N 135.4W WEAK
00UTC 16.09.2023 14.5N 137.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT ANALYSED POSITION : 36.3N 38.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142023

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.09.2023 36.3N 38.5W MODERATE
00UTC 16.09.2023 35.5N 38.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.09.2023 34.7N 38.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2023 33.9N 40.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.09.2023 33.8N 42.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2023 34.4N 43.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2023 35.8N 43.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2023 37.3N 42.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2023 38.3N 39.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2023 37.6N 37.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2023 36.8N 36.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2023 37.3N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2023 39.1N 34.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2023 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 22.9N 50.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 18.09.2023 23.6N 50.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2023 25.6N 51.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2023 26.8N 52.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2023 28.1N 54.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2023 30.1N 56.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.09.2023 32.2N 56.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.09.2023 34.2N 55.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.09.2023 36.0N 52.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.09.2023 37.2N 48.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.09.2023 37.8N 42.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 39.4N 0.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.09.2023 39.5N 0.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 14.7N 35.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.09.2023 14.7N 35.2W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 151613

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 151454
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
300 PM GMT Fri Sep 15 2023

Margot continues to produce small bursts of convection near the
estimated low-level center location. Microwave imagery from 0923
UTC showed some fragmented curved bands in the northeastern quadrant
of the storm. Around 1200 UTC, satellite-derived surface winds
measured the eastern portion of the circulation and revealed peak
winds of 44 kt and a significant expansion of tropical-storm-force
winds to the north. Based on these data, and subjective and
objective satellite estimates, the intensity is lowered to a
possibly generous 55 kt.

The tropical storm is drifting southeastward (135/4 kt) around a
building mid-level ridge over the northern Atlantic. Margot is
expected to move in a clockwise loop around the ridge during the
next couple of days or so. The latest NHC forecast shows a slightly
broader loop that lies between the previous forecast and the various
multi-model consensus aids. By Monday, Margot should turn northward
and then eastward as it moves around the periphery of the ridge.
The model guidance at days 4 and 5 has a large spread in the
along-track position (the forward speed) of Margot and therefore,
the track forecast has greater-than-average uncertainty. The
official prediction lies between the previous forecast and the
simple consensus aids at those times.

Margot is expected to continue to gradually weaken during the next
couple of days as the vertical wind shear increases and the cyclone
moves into an increasingly dry and stable airmass. Simulated
satellite imagery from global models shows periodic bursts of
convection through day 4, and the storm is expected to become
extratropical by the end of the forecast period. While the official
forecast shows Margot's intensity holding steady between 48-96 h,
some minor fluctuations are possible during this time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 36.3N 38.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 35.8N 38.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 35.1N 39.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 34.6N 40.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 34.8N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 35.6N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 37.0N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 39.5N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 39.6N 32.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 151453
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
300 PM GMT Fri Sep 15 2023

...MARGOT'S TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPAND NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.3N 38.2W
ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Margot was
located near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 38.2 West. Margot is
moving toward the southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and is expected to
make a slow clockwise loop during the next day or two. A faster
northeastward motion is forecast by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is forecast during
the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 300 miles (480 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Margot will continue to affect the
Azores for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 151453
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 38.2W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......260NE 140SE 100SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 260SE 280SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 38.2W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 38.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 35.8N 38.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 130SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 35.1N 39.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 34.6N 40.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 34.8N 42.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.6N 43.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 37.0N 42.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 39.5N 38.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 39.6N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N 38.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 150854
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
900 AM GMT Fri Sep 15 2023

Margot is producing small, intermittent bursts of convection near
its partially exposed low-level center this morning. An ASCAT pass
over the western portion of the circulation from last night showed
that the winds within the max wind band have decreased by about
10-15 kt from 24 h ago, with peak vectors slightly above 50 kt.
These data and the current satellite presentation indicate Margot is
likely no longer a hurricane. The initial intensity is lowered to 60
kt for this advisory, which remains above the highest available
satellite intensity estimates.

The tropical storm is drifting east-southeastward (115/3 kt) within
weak steering currents, as a mid-level ridge continues to build over
the north Atlantic. Margot is forecast to make a clockwise loop
while it pivots around this ridge during the next couple of days.
The latest NHC forecast shows a slightly broader loop that is
consistent with the latest multi-model consensus aids. By early next
week, the ridge is forecast to become oriented to the east and south
of Margot, and the cyclone should turn northward and then eastward
within the flow between this feature and mid-latitude westerlies.
There is greater uncertainty in the long-range track forecast given
mixed signals in the global guidance as to whether Margot gets fully
caught in the westerlies (GFS) or stays farther south and continues
to meander over the central Atlantic (ECMWF). For now, the NHC
forecast is held near the simple consensus aids.

Margot is likely to continue weakening during the next couple of
days while it meanders over its own cool wake of sub-26C SSTs in an
increasingly dry and stable airmass. By Sunday, it could briefly
encounter slightly warmer waters while moving westward, but the
upper-level winds do not appear very conducive for much
strengthening. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite
imagery suggest Margot could struggle at times to sustain enough
organized convection to remain a tropical cyclone. While the
guidance suite suggests some minor intensity fluctuations are
possible during this period, the NHC intensity forecast remains
steady between 48-96 h in agreement with the IVCN consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 36.7N 38.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 36.3N 38.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 35.7N 38.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 35.1N 40.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 34.8N 41.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 35.3N 43.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 36.5N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 39.5N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 40.0N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 150853
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
900 AM GMT Fri Sep 15 2023

...MARGOT NOW A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.7N 38.6W
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Margot was
located near latitude 36.7 North, longitude 38.6 West. Margot is
drifting toward the east-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and it is
expected to make a slow clockwise loop during the next day or two.
Then, a faster northeastward motion is forecast by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is forecast during the
next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Margot will continue to affect the
Azores for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 150853
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
0900 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 38.6W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT.......180NE 190SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 38.6W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 38.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 36.3N 38.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 35.7N 38.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 35.1N 40.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.8N 41.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 35.3N 43.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 36.5N 43.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 39.5N 40.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 40.0N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.7N 38.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 150231
TCDAT4

Hurricane Margot Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
300 AM GMT Fri Sep 15 2023


The satellite depiction of Margot has become more ragged this
evening. After a brief increase in convection earlier today, recent
infrared imagery shows that the convective banding has become more
broken as dry air wraps into the system. The system has also crossed
over a tongue of cooler SSTs, which is limiting deep convection.
With what convection remains the cloud tops have been warming the
past few hours. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates were CI
3.5/4.0 from SAB and TAFB, respectively. Given the satellite
depiction and the current intensity satellite estimates, the initial
intensity is lowered to 65 kt for this advisory.

Margot has started to make the forecasted clockwise loop in the
central Atlantic, with a current estimated motion of 070/3 kt. A
ridge over the north Atlantic is responsible for Margot slowing
down and then starting a clockwise loop which will last the next
few days. The aforementioned ridge will eventually shift eastward
and Margot should then begin to more northeastward towards the end
of the forecast period. While the overall track pattern has come
into better agreement, there remains along-track speed differences,
with the GFS being the fastest and further northeast. No big changes
to the track forecast were made from the previous one, with only
slight adjustments to trend towards the model consensus aids.

Margot is encountering a fairly hostile environment with low
mid-level relative humidity values and moderate wind shear. Margot
has also crossed a cold tongue of SSTs in the central Atlantic, and
given the slow motion it will also cross its own upwelled cooler
wake. Given the unfavorable conditions, the system should continue
to gradually weaken throughout the period, likely becoming a
tropical storm in the next 12-24 h. Margot should become a
post-tropical cyclone at some point early next week. However, model
simulated satellite still depicts bursts of convection from time to
time, and until there is better agreement, the official forecast
keeps the post-tropical extratropical transition at Day 5, although
this could occur sooner.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 36.9N 38.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 36.7N 38.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 36.1N 38.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 35.6N 39.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 35.4N 41.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 35.5N 42.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 36.5N 43.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 39.2N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 40.1N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 150231
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 38.9W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT.......170NE 200SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 300SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 38.9W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 39.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 36.7N 38.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 36.1N 38.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 35.6N 39.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 35.4N 41.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 35.5N 42.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 36.5N 43.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 39.2N 41.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 40.1N 35.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.9N 38.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 150231
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Margot Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
300 AM GMT Fri Sep 15 2023

...MARGOT CONTINUES TO MEANDER IN CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.9N 38.9W
ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Margot was located
near latitude 36.9 North, longitude 38.9 West. Margot is moving
toward the east-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h) and a continued slow
motion is expected while Margot undergoes a clockwise loop the next
day or two.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual to steady weakening is forecast, and
Margot should weaken to a tropical storm by Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Margot will continue to affect the
Azores for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 142035
TCDAT4

Hurricane Margot Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM GMT Thu Sep 14 2023

An inner eyewall redeveloped today, with the outer eyewall
persisting. Outflow is well-established to Margot's north and
northeast, near the base of a shortwave trough in the northeast
Atlantic. Vertical wind shear over the hurricane appears modest and
not enough to cause additional weakening. The initial wind speed
remains set to 70 kt, a compromise between the earlier higher SAR
estimates and Dvorak values closer to 65 kt, as Margot does not
appear to have degraded today.

Margot has turned further to the right, or 050/4. A blocking ridge
over the north-central Atlantic should force Margot to slow down and
execute a clockwise loop during the next few days. After the ridge
shifts eastward, the hurricane should gain some latitude and begin
to move more to the northeast at the end of the forecast period.
Model guidance is in good agreement on this general idea, although
there is considerable spread at long range with the GFS faster and
more to the northeast than the ECMWF-based guidance. The new
forecast remains close to continuity, near or just behind the model
consensus.

The hurricane should gradually weaken as the large system slows down
and upwells cooler water, along with it crossing over its own cold
wake. Simulated satellite imagery indicates that over the weekend,
Margot could be struggling to maintain convection near its center.
There is plenty of mid-level dry air in the surrounding environment,
as it navigates around the center of a warm-core high, which could
be mixed in the core. Margot could become a post-tropical cyclone
without deep convection early next week, but that really depends on
how it handles the more hostile conditions and if it can regain
convection as it tries to escape into the westerlies. Given how
resilient this season's tropical cyclones have been, it could be
optimistic that Margot is post-tropical on day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 36.9N 39.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 36.9N 38.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 36.4N 38.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 35.8N 39.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 35.4N 40.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 35.4N 41.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 35.7N 43.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 38.6N 42.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 40.2N 37.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roth/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 142034
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Margot Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM GMT Thu Sep 14 2023

...MARGOT EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LOOP OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WELL WEST OF THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.9N 39.3W
ABOUT 680 MI...1090 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Margot was located
near latitude 36.9 North, longitude 39.3 West. Margot is moving
toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion is
expected to slow while Margot undergoes a clockwise loop well to the
west of the Azores.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Margot should weaken to a tropical storm by Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Margot will continue to affect the
Azores for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Roth/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 142033
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC THU SEP 14 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 39.3W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.
50 KT.......100NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT.......170NE 200SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 39.3W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 39.5W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 36.9N 38.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 36.4N 38.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 35.8N 39.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 35.4N 40.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 35.4N 41.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 35.7N 43.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 38.6N 42.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 40.2N 37.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.9N 39.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROTH/BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 141457
TCDAT4

Hurricane Margot Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM GMT Thu Sep 14 2023

The double-eyewall structure of Margot has changed this morning,
with the inner-eye almost completely dissipated, and the outer
eyewall has taken over as the dominant feature. This is confirmed
by scatterometer data from ASCAT-B and a SAR pass around 9 UTC. The
initial wind speed is set to 70 kt, a compromise between higher SAR
estimates and Dvorak values closer to 65 kt. Note that the
hurricane- and storm-force wind radii have been changed/expanded
significantly due to the SAR/scatterometer data.

Margot has turned further to the right, or 030/5. A blocking ridge
over the north-central Atlantic should force Margot to slow down
and execute a clockwise loop during the next few days. After the
ridge shifts eastward, the hurricane could gain some latitude and
begin to move more to the northeast at the end of the forecast
period. Model guidance is coming into better agreement on this
solution, although there is considerable spread at long range with
the GFS faster and more to the northeast than the ECMWF-based
guidance. The new NHC forecast is shifted southward in the near
term with the GFS coming more into line with the other guidance,
and ends up in almost the same spot as the last forecast by day 5.

The hurricane should gradually weaken as the large system slows
down and upwells cooler water, along with Margot crossing over its
own path. Additionally, there is plenty of mid-level dry air in
the surrounding environment that could be mixed in the core
eventually. The updated forecast is adjusted higher initially
because of the current intensity, but is blended back with the
previous forecast and consensus aids at longer term. Margot could
become a post-tropical cyclone without deep convection early next
week, but it really depends on how it handles the more hostile
conditions. Given how resilient this season's tropical cyclones
have been, it could be optimistic that Margot is post-tropical on
day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 36.5N 39.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 36.8N 39.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 36.7N 38.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 36.2N 38.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 35.5N 39.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 35.0N 41.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 35.1N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 37.5N 43.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 40.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Fracasso/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 141455
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Margot Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM GMT Thu Sep 14 2023

...MARGOT GROWING IN SIZE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 39.8W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Margot was located
near latitude 36.5 North, longitude 39.8 West. Margot is moving
toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a slower
forward motion is expected today. Margot is forecast to meander
within weak steering currents on Friday and make a small clockwise
loop over the weekend.

Satellite-wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are
near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is
forecast over the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Margot will continue to affect the
Azores for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Fracasso/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 141455
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC THU SEP 14 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 39.8W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.
50 KT.......100NE 130SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT.......170NE 200SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 280SE 370SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 39.8W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 40.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 36.8N 39.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 36.7N 38.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 36.2N 38.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 110SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 35.5N 39.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 35.0N 41.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 35.1N 42.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 37.5N 43.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 40.0N 39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.5N 39.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER FRACASSO/BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 140848
TCDAT4

Hurricane Margot Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
900 AM GMT Thu Sep 14 2023

The satellite structure of Margot has continued to deteriorate. The
low-level center has been partially exposed in GOES-16 proxy-visible
satellite images, and recent AMSR2 microwave data show the inner
core convection has eroded. These changes appear to be the result of
some southwesterly shear over the system and dry air intrusions into
the circulation. Presently, deep convection is limited to a couple
of curved bands that wrap around the northern portion of the system.
The objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates have
markedly decreased, and the initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt,
in best agreement with recent UW-CIMSS SATCON and TAFB Dvorak
current intensity estimates. However, this could be generous given
the rapidly degrading satellite presentation.

Margot continues to slow down this morning, and it appears the
center has recently turned north-northeastward (015/5 kt). The
cyclone is likely to stall and meander over the next couple of days
in response to a building ridge to its north and west. In general,
the track models agree that Margot will make a gradual clockwise
loop while it pivots around the ridge that is forecast to slowly
slide eastward over the weekend. However, there is still large
spread in the various model solutions while the steering currents
remain weak. The updated NHC forecast tries to reflect the latest
trends of the multi-model consensus aids and shows little movement
between 12-60 h. By early next week, the ridge should become
re-positioned to the east of Margot, allowing the system to turn
northward and become caught up in the mid-latitude westerlies.

In addition to the ongoing shear, several factors suggest Margot is
likely to continue weakening during the next several days. The
cyclone is over marginal SSTs, and the coupled atmosphere-ocean
models indicate the slow-moving storm is likely to upwell even
cooler waters while it meanders over the central Atlantic. Also,
more bouts of dry air entrainment within a drier and more subsident
environment will make it difficult for Margot to sustain convection
near its center, as suggested by the GFS and ECMWF simulated
satellite imagery. The NHC forecast shows continued weakening
through early next week with Margot becoming extratropical in 120 h
while accelerating into the mid-latitudes. Although not explicitly
forecast, it is noted that the hostile conditions could render
Margot devoid of deep convection even sooner.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 35.9N 40.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 36.4N 39.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 36.6N 39.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 36.4N 39.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 35.9N 39.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 35.4N 40.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 35.2N 42.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 37.5N 43.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 40.5N 39.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 140847
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Margot Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
900 AM GMT Thu Sep 14 2023

...MARGOT WEAKENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.9N 40.3W
ABOUT 745 MI...1205 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Margot was located
near latitude 35.9 North, longitude 40.3 West. Margot is moving
toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a slower
forward motion is expected today. Margot is forecast to meander
within weak steering currents on Friday and make a small clockwise
loop over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast over the next few
days, and Margot is likely to become a tropical storm later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Margot will continue to affect the
Azores for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 140847
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
0900 UTC THU SEP 14 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 40.3W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......160NE 180SE 140SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 330SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 40.3W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 40.5W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 36.4N 39.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 36.6N 39.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 36.4N 39.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 120SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 35.9N 39.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 35.4N 40.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 35.2N 42.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 37.5N 43.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 40.5N 39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.9N 40.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 140244
TCDAT4

Hurricane Margot Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
300 AM GMT Thu Sep 14 2023

Margot's satellite depiction has become more ragged during the last
few hours. An earlier microwave pass showed that the center was
partially opened on the northern and western sides of the system.
Dry air is beginning to wrap into the center of the system, which
has caused some of the banding features to become broken. The center
has been cloud filled since the previous advisory, with overall
warming cloud tops. Satellite Dvorak current intensity estimates
were both 4.5 from TAFB and SAB. Given these estimates and the
degraded satellite depiction, the initial intensity for this
advisory is lowered to 75 kt.

Margot continues to gradually slow down as it moves within the flow
between a deep-layer ridge over the eastern Atlantic and an upper
trough to its west. A general northward motion should continue over
the next day or so. The steering pattern becomes fairly weak with a
blocking ridge to the north of the system, causing Margot to meander
over the north Atlantic and make a gradual clockwise loop over the
next 2 to 3 days. There are still some large differences in the
guidance envelope in the long term, but slightly better agreement
than 24 h ago. By the end of the period, the storm will likely
begin accelerating off to the east-northeast as it gets picked up by
the westerlies, but the overall track forecast confidence remains
low given the model spread.

Margot's convective structure has degraded this evening. The system
is entering a less favorable environment, with dry air entrainment
beginning to erode some of the structure. Deep-layer shear is also
forecast to increase, and upwelling of cooler waters due to the lack
of forward motion should result in weakening of the system through
the weekend. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and lies near the corrected consensus aids, the HCCA and
IVCN. Although the forecast keeps Margot a tropical cyclone through
day 5, simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggests
these increasingly hostile environmental factors could cause the
system to lose organized convection and become post-tropical sooner.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 35.2N 40.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 35.9N 40.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 36.4N 39.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 36.4N 39.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 36.1N 39.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 35.6N 40.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 35.5N 41.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 37.2N 43.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 40.4N 40.2W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 140243
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Margot Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
300 AM GMT Thu Sep 14 2023

...MARGOT TO MEANDER OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 40.5W
ABOUT 770 MI...1245 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Margot was located
near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 40.5 West. Margot is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue with a gradual decrease in forward speed through
Thursday. Margot is then likely to meander within weak steering
currents through this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast over the next few
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Margot will continue to affect the
Azores for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 140242
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
0300 UTC THU SEP 14 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 40.5W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 15SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT.......200NE 190SE 140SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 40.5W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 40.6W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 35.9N 40.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 15SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 36.4N 39.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 36.4N 39.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 36.1N 39.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 35.6N 40.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 35.5N 41.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 37.2N 43.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 40.4N 40.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.2N 40.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 132052
TCDAT4

Hurricane Margot Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM GMT Wed Sep 13 2023

Very little change is noted with Margot's convective structure
since the last advisory. The cyclone continues to exhibit a double
eyewall structure based on a 1527Z AMSR-2 pass, and Margot's eye
still occasionally appears in conventional GOES-16 IR and VIS
imagery. Given the lack of change with the hurricane's internal
structure and appearance, the intensity will be maintained at 80 kt
for this advisory. The motion has bent just slightly to the right
since this morning and is now moving due north at 6 kt.

Margot continues to gradually slow down as it moves within the flow
between a deep-layer ridge over the eastern Atlantic and a narrow
upper trough to its west. A general northward motion should continue
over the next day or so before the track forecast becomes very
challenging. Margot will then become caught in weak steering
currents, with the global models showing a blocking ridge developing
to the north of the cyclone by late week into the weekend. There
remain notable differences between the GFS and ECMWF with regards to
the strength and position of this ridge, which has large
implications in the longer-range track of Margot, but there has been
some tightening of the model consensus since this morning. This
supports the storm making a gradual clockwise loop between 36-72 hrs
as the ridge initially builds north of the cyclone and then slides
off to the east. By 120 hrs, the storm will likely begin
accelerating off to the northeast as it gets picked up by the
westerlies, but the overall track forecast confidence remains low
given the model spread late in the forecast period.

Increasing deep-layer shear during the next 24 to 36 hrs,
entrainment of drier air, and a likelihood of Margot upwelling
cooler waters should result in a steady weakening of the cyclone
going through the end of the week and into the weekend. The NHC
intensity forecast is close to the previous one and shows a gradual
decrease in strength through 72 hrs, in good agreement with the
consensus of the intensity aids. Although this forecast keeps Margot
a tropical cyclone through day 5, simulated satellite imagery from
the global models suggests these increasingly hostile environmental
factors could cause the system to lose organized convection and
become post-tropical by early next week as the storm lingers west
of the Azores.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 34.7N 40.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 35.5N 40.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 36.4N 40.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 36.7N 39.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 36.5N 39.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 36.0N 39.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 35.6N 41.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 36.5N 43.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 39.5N 41.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Orrison/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 132051
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Margot Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM GMT Wed Sep 13 2023

...MARGOT FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 40.6W
ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Margot was located
near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 40.6 West. Margot is moving
toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue with a gradual decrease in forward speed through
Thursday. Margot is then likely to meander within weak steering
currents through this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 72 hours.

Satellite data indicates that Margot's hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Margot will continue to affect the
Azores for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Orrison/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 132050
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC WED SEP 13 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 40.6W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 15SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT.......200NE 190SE 140SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 290SW 290NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 40.6W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 40.6W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 35.5N 40.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 36.4N 40.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 36.7N 39.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 36.5N 39.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 36.0N 39.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 35.6N 41.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 36.5N 43.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 39.5N 41.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N 40.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ORRISON/BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 131456
TCDAT4

Hurricane Margot Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM GMT Wed Sep 13 2023

Margot continues to exhibit a double eyewall structure based on
a recent SAR pass over the storm, with a well-defined inner core.
GOES-16 IR data shows the inner-eye feature occasionally obscured by
clouds, but overall the organization of Margot has changed little
over the last several hours. The latest microwave data in
conjunction with the SAR pass suggests the initial intensity may be
just a tad stronger compared to continuity, and so it will be set at
80 kt for this advisory.

Margot is slowing down as it moves within the flow between a
deep-layer ridge over the eastern Atlantic and a narrow upper trough
to its west. A general north to north-northwest motion should
continue over the next day or so before the track forecast becomes
very challenging. Margot is expected to become caught in weak
steering currents, with the global models showing a blocking ridge
developing to the north of the cyclone by late week into the
weekend. There are significant differences between the GFS and ECMWF
with regards to the strength and position of this ridge, which has
large implications in the longer-range track of Margot. The overall
consensus of the guidance suggests that Margot could make a
clockwise loop as the ridge builds, and the latest NHC forecast
shows little net motion between 36-72 hrs as the cyclone meanders
over the central Atlantic. At days 4-5, most models (except for the
ECMWF) show the ridge sliding eastward, allowing for Margot to
gain latitude, and the overall track forecast confidence remains
low.

The deep-layer shear is forecast to increase during the next 24 to
36 hrs, and this coupled with a likelihood of the upwelling of
cooler waters should result in a weakening trend. Drier air
surrounding the storm will also be a factor in causing a weakening
cyclone going into the weekend. The NHC intensity forecast is close
to the previous forecast and shows gradual decrease in strength
through 72 hrs, and in good agreement with the consensus of the
intensity aids. Although this forecast keeps Margot a tropical
cyclone through day 5, simulated satellite imagery from the global
models suggests these environmental factors could cause the system
to lose organized convection and become post-tropical early next
week as the storm lingers west of the Azores.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 34.1N 40.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 35.0N 40.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 36.0N 40.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 36.8N 39.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 36.9N 39.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 36.5N 39.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 36.3N 40.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 36.0N 42.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 38.0N 42.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Orrison/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 131455
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Margot Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM GMT Wed Sep 13 2023

...MARGOT NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 40.4W
ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Margot was located
near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 40.4 West. Margot is moving
toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion with
a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through early
Thursday. Then, Margot is likely to stall or meander within weak
steering currents into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 72 hours.

Satellite data indicated that Margot's hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Margot will begin to affect the Azores
later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Orrison/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 131454
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC WED SEP 13 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 40.4W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT.......200NE 190SE 140SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..320NE 320SE 290SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 40.4W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 40.3W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 35.0N 40.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 36.0N 40.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 36.8N 39.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 36.9N 39.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 150SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 36.5N 39.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 140SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 36.3N 40.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 36.0N 42.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 38.0N 42.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 40.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ORRISON/BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 130854
TCDAT4

Hurricane Margot Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
900 AM GMT Wed Sep 13 2023

The eye of Margot has been obscured by clouds to varying degrees
overnight, but has begun to warm in the latest infrared satellite
images this morning. Recent AMSR2 microwave images reveal the
hurricane has a compact inner core, with a concentric outer ring of
convection that is broken to the northwest. Earlier scatterometer
data indicated a secondary wind maximum exists within this outer
band. The vortex is slightly tilted with height, as the mid-level
89-GHz eye lies to the southwest of the 37-GHz center. The
intensity for this advisory remains 75 kt based on consensus T4.5
Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.

Margot has begun to slow down while moving northward (350/10 kt)
within the flow between a deep-layer ridge over the eastern Atlantic
and a narrow upper trough to its west. A general northward motion
should continue over the next day or so before the track forecast
becomes very challenging. Margot is forecast to become caught in
weak steering currents, with the global models showing a blocking
ridge developing to the north of the cyclone by late week into the
weekend. There are significant differences between the GFS and ECMWF
with regards to the strength and position of this ridge, which has
large implications in the longer-range track of Margot. Based on the
overall shift in the guidance suite this cycle, the latest NHC
forecast shows little net motion between 36-72 h as Margot meanders
over the central Atlantic. This is a fairly large departure from the
previous advisory, but better represents the latest consensus track
solutions. At days 4-5, most models (except for the ECMWF) show the
ridge sliding eastward, but overall track forecast confidence is
very low and larger future adjustments could be necessary.

It is possible that Margot is at or near its peak intensity. The
deep-layer shear is forecast to increase during the next 24 h, and
thereafter the coupled atmosphere-ocean models indicate the slow
motion of the storm is likely to result in upwelling of cooler
waters. In addition, the surrounding environment is expected to
become drier and more subsident by this weekend. The NHC intensity
forecast has been lowered from the previous one and shows steady
weakening beyond 36 h, in good agreement with the latest HCCA and
IVCN aids. Although this forecast keeps Margot a tropical cyclone
through day 5, simulated satellite imagery from the global models
suggests these environmental factors could cause the system to lose
organized convection and become post-tropical early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 33.6N 40.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 34.5N 40.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 35.6N 40.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 36.5N 39.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 36.9N 39.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 36.7N 39.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 36.5N 39.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 36.5N 42.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 38.0N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 130853
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Margot Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
900 AM GMT Wed Sep 13 2023

...MARGOT MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.6N 40.0W
ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Margot was located
near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 40.0 West. Margot is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A north-northwestward or
northward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is
expected through early Thursday. Then, Margot is likely to stall or
meander within weak steering currents into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Margot will begin to affect the Azores
later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 130853
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
0900 UTC WED SEP 13 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 40.0W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......200NE 190SE 140SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 320SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 40.0W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 39.9W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 34.5N 40.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 35.6N 40.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 36.5N 39.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 36.9N 39.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 150SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 36.7N 39.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 140SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 36.5N 39.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...170NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 36.5N 42.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 38.0N 43.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 40.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 130234
TCDAT4

Hurricane Margot Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
300 AM GMT Wed Sep 13 2023

Margot's satellite appearance has improved since the previous
advisory. Infrared imagery indicates deep convection wraps
around the center, with cold cloud tops. Infrared and proxy-vis
satellite depict that an eye may also be trying to reappear. A
recent scatterometer pass shows that the system continues to have a
very large wind field. Subjective Dvorak estimates for this cycle
were T4.0/T4.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively. Using a blend of
these estimates and the improved satellite appearance, the initial
intensity for this advisory is raised to 75 kt.

Margot has started to move north-northwestward, and should continue
this motion with a slightly slower forward speed on Wednesday. In
about 2 to 3 days, there continues to be significant divergence in
the guidance envelope, and therefore there is higher than normal
forecast uncertainty. A ridge is forecast to build north of Margot
over the next couple of days. The GFS and ECMWF have two very
different solutions with how Margot interacts with this ridge, and
are on opposite sides of the guidance suite. The current NHC
forecast has not been adjusted much from the previous one, which
remains near the multi-model consensus aids, as there is no reason
to favor either global model solution at this time. It is possible
that larger track adjustments will be needed to future NHC
forecasts.

Margot's intensity should stay relatively steady, with slight
fluctuations, up or down, during the next several days. The
intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement in the short-term.
However, in about 2 to 3 days, similar to the track forecast there
is uncertainty in the intensity forecast as they are dependent on
one another. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one, and lies near the multi-model consensus showing steady
weakening towards the end of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 32.7N 39.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 34.0N 40.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 35.1N 40.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 36.1N 40.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 36.9N 40.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 37.3N 40.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 37.5N 40.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 38.4N 42.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 40.6N 42.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 130234
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Margot Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
300 AM GMT Wed Sep 13 2023

...MARGOT A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 39.7W
ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Margot was located
near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 39.7 West. Margot is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A north-northwestward or
northward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days. A slow meandering motion is
expected on Friday and into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slight fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265
miles (425 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Margot will begin to affect the Azores on
Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 130233
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
0300 UTC WED SEP 13 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 39.7W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......230NE 150SE 120SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 280SE 300SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 39.7W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 39.6W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 34.0N 40.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...210NE 160SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 35.1N 40.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 36.1N 40.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 36.9N 40.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 37.3N 40.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 150SE 130SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 37.5N 40.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 38.4N 42.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 40.6N 42.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.7N 39.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 122043
TCDAT4

Hurricane Margot Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
900 PM GMT Tue Sep 12 2023

As quickly as it re-appeared earlier today, Margot's eye
disappeared again this evening. Consequently, Dvorak-based
intensity estimates have decreased a little, with a blend of Data-T
and Current Intensity values supporting an intensity near 70 kt.
Based on recent AMSR microwave imagery, Margot still has a double
eyewall, and a SAR overpass earlier this morning indicated that the
winds in the outer eyewall were just as high as the inner one.

Margot has continued moving northward today, and should turn
north-northwestward tomorrow. Beyond about 60 h, there is a
significant increase in model forecast spread, and therefore,
forecast uncertainty. The ECMWF and GFS highlight this uncertainty,
showing very different forecasts for a ridge that is supposed to
build to the north of Margot over the next 3 days, which results in
a very different track for the hurricane. However, ensemble
forecasts from those models indicate that their deterministic model
solutions are part of a wide spectrum of possible tracks for Margot.
The ECMWF track ensemble, for instance, has approximately 27 degrees
of latitude spread between members at 120 h. We don't have a clear
reason to favor any one solution at this time, so the NHC forecast
is near the multi-model consensus. It is possible that large track
adjustments will be needed to future NHC forecasts.

For the next few days, Margot's intensity should stay relatively
steady, and this is supported by nearly every normally-reliable
intensity model. Beyond about 72 h, the track of Margot will have an
influence on its intensity, which increases the uncertainty.
Depending on the exact evolution and path of Margot, it could hold
its intensity for a bit longer, or quickly begin a transition to a
remnant low. The NHC forecast is in the middle of these solutions,
showing steady weakening, but the uncertainty in the intensity
forecast is also unusually high.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 31.7N 39.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 33.2N 40.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 34.4N 41.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 35.4N 41.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 36.4N 40.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 37.1N 40.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 37.5N 41.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 38.1N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 40.0N 43.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 122040
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Margot Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
900 PM GMT Tue Sep 12 2023

...MARGOT CONTINUES NORTHWARD FOR NOW...
...FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 39.6W
ABOUT 835 MI...1345 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Margot was located
near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 39.6 West. Margot is moving
toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest at a slower forward speed is expected beginning
tomorrow. A meandering northward motion is then expected on Thursday
and Friday. Margot's track beyond Friday is unusually uncertain, but
a slow meandering motion is generally expected into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight fluctuations in intensity, up or down, are possible
during the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265
miles (425 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Margot will begin to affect the Azores on
Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 122039
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
2100 UTC TUE SEP 12 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 39.6W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......230NE 150SE 120SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 39.6W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 39.5W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 33.2N 40.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 160SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 34.4N 41.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 35.4N 41.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 0SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 36.4N 40.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 37.1N 40.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 130SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 37.5N 41.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 150SE 130SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 38.1N 42.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 40.0N 43.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 39.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 121449
TCDAT4

Hurricane Margot Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
300 PM GMT Tue Sep 12 2023

After a brief hiatus, Margot has redevloped a fairly clear eye.
Cloud-top temperatures around that eye are cold enough to support
satellite intensity estimates similar to the previous advisory and
the intensity is held at 75 kt. The big change with this advisory is
that ASCAT data valid between 12 and 13 UTC revealed Margot has
grown substantially, with 34 kt and 50 kt winds extending much
farther from the center of the hurricane than previously estimated.
Microwave data also suggest the presence of a double eyewall.

There is high confidence in the track forecast for the next 3 days.
Margot should turn north-northwestward tomorrow while it slows down.
After that, there is considerable uncertainty in the strength of a
ridge that is forecast to build to the north of Margot. The GFS and
ECMWF are on opposite ends of the spectrum, with the GFS showing
Margot moving faster to the north due to a weaker blocking high.
Confidence in the track forecast decreases at day 4 and 5 given the
high spread. The NHC forecast is near the multi-model consensus, but
relatively large changes could be required to later advisories if
one model solution or another becomes more likely.

The aforementioned ASCAT passes also showed that despite the
relatively small eye of Margot, the wind field is fairly spread
out, which may limit the potential for substantial further
intensification. Most of the hurricane models seem to have a good
handle on this, showing Margot more or less maintaining its
intensity for the next several days. Weakening should begin after
3 days as Margot moves over cooler waters, wind shear increases,
and possibly its transition to an extratropical cyclone begins.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 30.2N 39.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 31.8N 40.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 33.3N 41.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 34.3N 41.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 35.3N 41.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 36.3N 41.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 37.0N 41.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 38.5N 43.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 40.5N 43.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 121447
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Margot Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
300 PM GMT Tue Sep 12 2023

...EYE OF MARGOT HEADING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 39.4W
ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Margot was located
near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 39.4 West. Margot is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest at a slower forward speed is expected beginning
tomorrow, followed by a turn back generally toward the north at an
even slower speed on Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected for the next several
days, but short term fluctions, up or down, are possible.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles
(405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Margot will begin to affect the Azores on
Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 121445
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
1500 UTC TUE SEP 12 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 39.4W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......220NE 180SE 160SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 39.4W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 39.4W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.8N 40.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...220NE 180SE 160SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.3N 41.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 34.3N 41.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 35.3N 41.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 0SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 36.3N 41.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 37.0N 41.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 160SE 130SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 38.5N 43.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 40.5N 43.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 39.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 120847
TCDAT4

Hurricane Margot Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
900 AM GMT Tue Sep 12 2023

Margot's eye became obscured in infrared satellite imagery a couple
of hours ago, but the hurricane still has a well-defined Central
Dense Overcast surrounded by convective banding features. A dry
slot has become entrained into the eastern part of the circulation,
between the CDO and the outermost banding. Based on consensus
Dvorak estimates of T4.5 from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity
is raised to 75 kt.

Margot is moving northward (360/11 kt) along the western periphery
of a mid-level ridge emanating out of western Africa, and this
steering mechanism should keep the hurricane on a general
northward or north-northwestward trajectory for the next few
days. A blocking ridge is forecast to form in 2-3 days over the
north Atlantic, which is likely to cause Margot to slow down during
the middle to latter part of the forecast period. However, the
ridge may be relatively progressive, and by day 5 many of the track
models show the storm picking up some speed again once the ridge
gets out of the way. The most notable change in the NHC track
forecast is that it's faster than the previous prediction on days 4
and 5 to better align with the latest guidance.

The hurricane is currently within a strongly diffluent environment
to the east of an upper-level trough, but the environment is
forecast to evolve to an anticyclone aloft and low shear within the
next 12 hours. Continued strengthening is therefore likely, but
any intensification trend could be halted soon after 24 hours when
the hurricane slows down and potentially upwells cooler waters.
The NHC intensity forecast is above the intensity consensus during
the first day or two and is closest to the statistical-dynamical
guidance. Weakening is likely to occur after 48 hours due to
cooler waters and an increase in deep-layer shear.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 29.3N 39.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 30.9N 39.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 32.7N 40.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 34.0N 41.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 35.0N 42.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 36.0N 41.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 36.9N 41.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 38.2N 42.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 40.4N 43.4W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 120846
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Margot Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
900 AM GMT Tue Sep 12 2023

...MARGOT STILL STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 39.5W
ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Margot was located
near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 39.5 West. Margot is moving
toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northward to
north-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next day or so. Weakening is likely to begin by Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 120846
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
0900 UTC TUE SEP 12 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 39.5W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 165SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 39.5W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 39.5W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.9N 39.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.7N 40.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 34.0N 41.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 35.0N 42.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 36.0N 41.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 36.9N 41.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 38.2N 42.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 40.4N 43.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 39.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 120235
TCDAT4

Hurricane Margot Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
300 AM GMT Tue Sep 12 2023

Margot has continued to become better organized over the past
several hours. The eye is becoming a little more distinct, and
inner-core convection has intensified somewhat, with cooling cloud
tops. Convective banding features are evident, particularly over
the southeastern portion of the circulation. Upper-level outflow
is well defined over the northern semicircle of the system. The
current intensity estimate is now 70 kt which is a blend of
subjective Dvorak classification estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Recent center fixes show a slight rightward wobble in the track but
the longer-term motion estimate is generally northward or 010/10 kt.
Margot is expected to move northward to north-northwestward between
two subtropical high pressure areas over the next few days. Later
in the forecast period, a blocking mid-level high pressure system
develops to the north of the tropical cyclone. This will cause
Margot to move rather slowly and perhaps erratically over the
subtropical Atlantic in the 4-5 day time frame. The official track
forecast is fairly close to the previous NHC prediction and
generally follows the multi-model TVCN consensus solution.

Global models indicate that the upper-level tropospheric flow over
Margot should be conducive for some more strengthening during the
next 36 hours or so, with diffluent anticyclonic winds aloft over
the system. The official intensity forecast is about the same as
the previous one and remains close to the model consensus. The
statistical-dynamical guidance DSHIPS suggests that the hurricane
could become a little stronger than shown here. Later in the
period, increasing shear and cooler ocean waters will likely cause
a weakening trend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 28.0N 39.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 29.7N 39.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 31.8N 40.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 33.4N 41.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 34.6N 41.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 35.6N 41.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 36.5N 41.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 37.3N 41.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 38.5N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 120234
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Margot Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
300 AM GMT Tue Sep 12 2023

...MARGOT GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 39.6W
ABOUT 1295 MI...2085 KM NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Margot was located
near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 39.6 West. Margot is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a northward to
north-northwestward motion is expected over the next few several
days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast
during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 120234
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
0300 UTC TUE SEP 12 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 39.6W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 70SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 165SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 39.6W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 39.7W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.7N 39.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.8N 40.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.4N 41.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 34.6N 41.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 35.6N 41.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 36.5N 41.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 37.3N 41.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 38.5N 42.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 39.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 112035
TCDAT4

Hurricane Margot Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM GMT Mon Sep 11 2023

Satellite images this afternoon indicate that Margot continues to
strengthen with a more defined eye present while recent microwave
data shows improvement in the overall eye pattern. The latest TAFB
Dvorak intensity estimate of 65 kt, combined with the improved
satellite structure provides enough support to set the initial wind
speed at 65 kt this forecast cycle, making Margot the fifth
hurricane of the Atlantic season.

Margot is moving northward at about 10 kt. This motion is expected
to continue for the next couple of days before a slowing trend
occurs as Margot bends to the north-northwest due to a building
ridge to the east of the hurricane. Further slowing in the storm's
motion is expected by this weekend as a large mid-latitude ridge
blocks its path, effectively stalling the system. Beyond that time,
there continues to be uncertainty in the track with the various
model guidance showing a wide spread of possible solutions. The new
forecast lies near the previous NHC track, shifted a bit to the
west at long range.

The environment will continue to become more conducive for further
strengthening over the next 36 to 48 hours, with a gradual decrease
in vertical shear expected while Margot remains over relatively warm
waters of around 28 deg C. Beyond 72 hours, increasing shear and
drier air working into the system is likely to weaken Margot some.
The new forecast shows an increase in intensity through 48 hours
based on the expected favorable environment and higher statistical
guidance, leaning toward the Florida State Superensemble and NOAA
corrected-consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 27.0N 39.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 28.5N 39.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 30.7N 40.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 32.6N 40.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 34.1N 41.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 35.2N 41.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 36.0N 41.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 37.1N 40.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 37.0N 41.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Taylor/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 112034
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Margot Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 PM GMT Mon Sep 11 2023

...MARGOT BECOMES THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2023 ATLANTIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 39.8W
ABOUT 1265 MI...2035 KM NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Margot was located
near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 39.8 West. Margot is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue for the next several days.

Satellite estimates indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Further
strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Taylor/Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 112033
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC MON SEP 11 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 39.8W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 39.8W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 39.8W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.5N 39.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.7N 40.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.6N 40.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 34.1N 41.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 35.2N 41.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 36.0N 41.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 37.1N 40.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 37.0N 41.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 39.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER TAYLOR/BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 111440
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM GMT Mon Sep 11 2023

Satellite images indicate that Margot is strengthening. A ragged
eye has emerged from the central dense overcast pattern, although
it is open on the east side. Additionally, overnight microwave
data showed the eye pattern on numerous passes, suggesting this is
a real eye feature. With the improvement in the satellite
presentation, the initial wind speed is set to 60 kt, closest to
the D-MINT intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS, but below recent
Dvorak DT estimates of 65 kt.

Margot is moving northward at about 9 kt, and that general motion
should continue for the next few days, with a north-northwest bend
expected by midweek as ridging builds to the east of the storm. A
large mid-latitude ridge is forecast to block Margot's path after
that time, causing the cyclone to basically stall by the weekend.
Guidance is in very good agreement for the first few days, then the
uncertainty grows in unsteady steering currents beneath the ridge,
with aids fanning out in all directions. The new forecast is
similar to the previous one, showing little motion at days 4-5 as a
compromise between the various divergent model solutions.

The storm has a chance to strengthen further over the next couple
of days while it moves over relatively warm waters up to 28 deg C
and in lessening shear. In a few days, an increase in shear and
dry-air entrainment should gradually weaken Margot. This is an
interesting forecast because the dynamical model guidance is well
below the statistical guidance, despite a seemingly conducive
environment for intensification. The new NHC forecast leans
closer to the statistical models, adjusted a bit higher than the
last NHC intensity prediction, similar to the Florida State
Superensemble and NOAA corrected-consensus models.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 26.1N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 27.6N 40.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 29.8N 40.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 31.9N 40.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 33.6N 41.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 14/0000Z 34.7N 41.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 35.8N 41.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 37.1N 40.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 37.0N 41.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake/Taylor

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 111439
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM GMT Mon Sep 11 2023

...MARGOT ALMOST A HURRICANE WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 40.0W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2000 KM NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Margot was
located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 40.0 West. Margot is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next several days.

Satellite estimates indicate that the maximum sustained winds
of Margot have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Margot is forecast to become a hurricane late today and
could strengthen further over the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Taylor

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 111439
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC MON SEP 11 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 40.0W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 40.0W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 40.0W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.6N 40.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.8N 40.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.9N 40.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.6N 41.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 34.7N 41.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 35.8N 41.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 37.1N 40.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 37.0N 41.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 40.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/TAYLOR

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 110833
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
900 AM GMT Mon Sep 11 2023

This morning's satellite presentation consists of an isolated area
of deep convection near Margot's surface center and a curved band
displaced about 160 mi to the northeast beneath upper-level
southerly diffluent flow. This distinctive cloud pattern is a
result of very dry mid-tropospheric air intruding from the
southwest and wrapping around and into the northeast sector of the
cyclone. The Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB haven't changed since last night, and the initial intensity is
held at 55 kt for this advisory.

The latest GFS and ECMWF sounding analyses show modest northwesterly
shear undercutting the diffluent southerly flow aloft while drying
and stabilizing the mid-level portion of the atmosphere. In fact,
the statistical-dynamic SHIPS indicates 40 to 50% relative humidity
in the surrounding environment. The deterministic and SHIPS models
still indicate, however, that the upper-level trough providing these
inhibiting conditions will lift northeastward soon, allowing
anticyclonic upper-tropospheric flow to develop over Margot. As a
result, the cyclone should strengthen, and the NHC intensity
forecast follows suit and indicates the cyclone becoming a hurricane
in less than 24 hours while intensifying further through mid-week.
Weakening is predicted beyond day 3 as the thermodynamic environment
in the mid-latitudes of the central Atlantic becomes even less
favorable. The official intensity forecast follows the HFIP HCCA
corrected consensus intensity model through 48 hours, then is based
on a blend of the HCCA, Decay SHIPS, and the IVCN intensity aids.

Margot's initial motion during the past 12 hours has been north, or
360/7 kt. A mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge extending from west
Africa to the eastern subtropical Atlantic should steer the cyclone
in a generally northward trajectory through an amplified weakness
over the central Atlantic over the next 72 hours. Through the
remaining period, Margot is expected to slow in forward speed, and
possibly meander, in response to high pressure building to the
north of the cyclone over the central north Atlantic. The NHC
forecast track is adjusted slightly to the right beyond 48 hours,
and lies between the previous forecast and the TVCA simple average
multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 25.3N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 26.6N 39.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 28.6N 39.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 30.8N 40.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 32.7N 40.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 34.0N 41.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 35.0N 42.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 36.7N 41.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 37.1N 40.9W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 110832
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
900 AM GMT Mon Sep 11 2023

...MARGOT MOVING DUE NORTH OVER THE OPEN CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL
ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 40.0W
ABOUT 1215 MI...1955 KM NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Margot was
located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 40.0 West. Margot is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Margot is likely to become a hurricane tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 110832
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
0900 UTC MON SEP 11 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 40.0W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..165NE 165SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 40.0W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 40.0W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 26.6N 39.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.6N 39.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.8N 40.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.7N 40.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 34.0N 41.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 35.0N 42.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 36.7N 41.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 37.1N 40.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 40.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 110241
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 10 2023

Margot has been exhibiting a figure six cloud pattern on satellite
imagery, with a dry slot wrapping around the eastern portion of the
circulation. Central convection has not increased recently, and the
system has become essentially co-located with an upper-level trough.
The combination of Margot and the trough appears to have created an
upper-level outflow channel over the northeast quadrant, but outflow
is limited elsewhere. Subjective Dvorak classifications are T3.5
from both TAFB and SAB, corresponding to a current intensity of 55
kt. Objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are mostly a little
lower, and there is no change to the current maximum winds for this
advisory.

The storm continues to move on a northward heading with a motion
estimate of 360/7 kt. Margot should move generally northward
through a weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge for the next
48 to 72 hours with a gradual decrease in forward speed. In 3 to 5
days, a blocking high develops to the north of the tropical cyclone.
This should result in a slow and possibly erratic motion late in
the forecast period. The official forecast track, which is similar
to the one from the previous advisory, is rather close to the latest
dynamical model consensus, TVCA, objective aid.

Global model predictions indicate that, over the next couple of
days, the upper-level trough will shift south and southwest of
Margot with anticyclonic upper-tropospheric flow developing over the
system. This should be conducive for some strengthening, and the
official forecast shows Margot becoming a hurricane soon and then
intensifying a little more over the next 48 hours. This is in good
agreement with the LGEM and consensus intensity models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 24.6N 39.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 26.0N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 27.8N 40.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 29.8N 40.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 31.8N 40.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 33.6N 41.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 34.8N 41.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 36.6N 41.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 37.5N 40.8W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 110239
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 10 2023

...MARGOT LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN A DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 39.9W
ABOUT 1185 MI...1910 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Margot was
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 39.9 West. Margot is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Margot is likely to become a hurricane by late Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 110238
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
0300 UTC MON SEP 11 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 39.9W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 39.9W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 39.9W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.0N 40.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.8N 40.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.8N 40.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.8N 40.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.6N 41.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 34.8N 41.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 36.6N 41.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 37.5N 40.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 39.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 102034
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
500 PM AST Sun Sep 10 2023

Margot has become better organized this afternoon. Visible and
infrared satellite imagery indicate that the low-level center has
tucked up under the deep convection. A recent SSMI/S microwave pass
depicts that there is well-defined curved banding around the center.
Deep convection continues to burst near the center. Subjective and
objective Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are T/3.5 and
T/3.0, respectively. Given the improved structure, this advisory
will lean towards the higher end of these estimates and the initial
intensity is raised to 55 kt.

Margot is still within an environment of moderate southwesterly wind
shear. The vertical wind shear is forecast to persist, but
strengthening is forecast over the coming days as the system is
entering a more favorable upper-level divergent wind pattern. Margot
will continue to traverse warm sea surface temperatures throughout
the forecast period, around 28 degrees Celsius. The NHC forecast is
slightly higher in the short term, with Margot forecast to become a
hurricane on Monday. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the HCCA
and IVCN consensus intensity aids.

Margot is moving northward at around 8 kt. A northward motion is
expected to continue into a weakness in the central Atlantic
subtropical ridge. In about 2 to 3 days, Margot's forward motion is
forecast to slow down as the steering flow weakens. Towards the end
of the forecast period, there remains considerably large
cross-track model spread. The NHC track forecast lies between the
consensus aids, with the system meandering over the central
Atlantic.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 23.9N 40.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 25.1N 40.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 26.8N 40.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 28.7N 40.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 30.8N 40.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 32.9N 40.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 34.3N 41.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 36.3N 41.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 37.2N 41.2W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 102033
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
500 PM AST Sun Sep 10 2023

...MARGOT STRONGER AND BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 40.1W
ABOUT 1175 MI...1895 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Margot was
located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 40.1 West. Margot is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue the during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Margot
is likely to become a hurricane on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 102033
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 40.1W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 40.1W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 40.1W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.1N 40.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 26.8N 40.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.7N 40.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.8N 40.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.9N 40.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 34.3N 41.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 36.3N 41.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 37.2N 41.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 40.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 101444
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 10 2023

Shear continues to impact Margot's ability to become better
organized. Visible satellite imagery this morning shows that the
low-level center of the system remains on the southwestern edge of
the deep convection. All the deep convection remains sheared to the
northeast. A 1154 UTC scatterometer pass this morning, depicted a
few wind barbs,that were not rain flagged, near 40 kt. Given the
undersampling of this instrument, the intensity is held at 45 kt
for this advisory. This is in agreement with the latest subjective
Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T3.0 from TAFB.

Margot is currently within an environment of moderate vertical wind
shear, which is inhibiting the organization of the system. Despite
the less than favorable environment, the intensity guidance has
been persistent in Margot gradually strengthening over the next few
days as it enters a more favorable upper-level wind pattern, and
continues over warm sea surface temperatures. The NHC forecast is
for gradual strengthening and has Margot becoming a hurricane in
about two days. This is in agreement with the corrected consensus
HCCA, and IVCN intensity aids.

Margot is expected continue to move north-northwestward to northward
into a weakness in the central Atlantic subtropical ridge. Beyond
day 3, Margot will begin to slow its forward motion as the steering
pattern weakens. Towards the end of the forecast period, there
remains quite a bit of cross-track model spread, and some models
have the system meandering in the central Atlantic. There is higher
than normal uncertainty in this time range. The NHC track forecast
lies between the HFIP HCCA and simple consensus TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 23.0N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 24.1N 40.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 25.8N 40.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 27.5N 40.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 29.5N 40.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 13/0000Z 31.6N 40.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 33.3N 41.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 35.6N 41.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 36.9N 41.7W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 101443
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 10 2023

...MARGOT HOLDING STEADY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 40.0W
ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Margot was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 40.0 West. Margot is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual
turn to the north is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast, and Margot is likely to become
a hurricane within the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 101442
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
1500 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 40.0W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 40.0W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 39.9W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.1N 40.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 10SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.8N 40.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.5N 40.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.5N 40.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.6N 40.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 65NE 50SE 50SW 55NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.3N 41.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 65SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 35.6N 41.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 36.9N 41.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 40.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 100837
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
500 AM AST Sun Sep 10 2023

Westerly shear and a slug of dry air, which was noted in the
MET-10 water vapor imagery, impedes Margot's ability to sustain
deep convection near the surface center while most convection
remains displaced to the northeast. A recent AMSR2 microwave pass
confirmed that the surface center has again become exposed to the
southwest of the convective canopy. The initial intensity is held
at 45 kt and is based on the TAFB and SAB Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates.

The aforementioned moderate shear should continue to undercut the
diffluent southerly flow aloft during the next couple of days.
Afterward, the statistical-dynamic SHIPS guidance indicates that
Margot will slip under a narrow upper-level ridge, favoring
intensification. The only inhibiting factor during the latter part
of the forecast appears to be a less conducive surrounding
thermodynamic environment, which should affect the intensity rate
some. Therefore, only gradual strengthening is forecast and agrees
with intensity consensus models but below the HAFS-B hurricane
model, which predicts Margot as a hurricane on day 4. For now, the
official forecast shows Margot becoming a hurricane in 48 hours in
agreement with the reliable intensity consensus aids, but this
predicted rate of intensification could be generous.

Through the early part of this week, Margot is expected to turn
north-northwestward to northward while entering a growing weakness
in the central Atlantic subtropical ridge. Beyond day 3, Margot
will likely slow its forward motion in response to a building or
blocking high to the northwest. There remains quite a bit of model
spread/uncertainty late in the period, with the two global model
clusters showing Margot either turning eastward or moving toward
the northwest to west. The NHC track forecast conservatively lies
between the HFIP HCCA and simple consensus TVCA, which splits the
two model cluster solutions.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 22.1N 39.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 23.1N 40.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 24.8N 40.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 26.5N 40.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 28.2N 40.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 30.1N 40.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 32.4N 41.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 35.0N 41.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 36.7N 41.9W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 100836
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
500 AM AST Sun Sep 10 2023

...MARGOT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE...
...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 39.6W
ABOUT 1100 MI...1770 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Margot was
located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 39.6 West. Margot is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn
to the north-northwest and north is expected during the next couple
of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is still anticipated, and Margot is likely to become
a hurricane within the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 100836
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
0900 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 39.6W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 39.6W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 39.5W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.1N 40.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.8N 40.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 26.5N 40.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.2N 40.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.1N 40.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.4N 41.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 35.0N 41.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 36.7N 41.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 39.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 100242
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2023

Although Margot has not become significantly better organized since
earlier today, recent scatterometer data indicate that it has
strengthened slightly with maximum winds around 45 kt. The system
continues to experience westerly shear that is at least partially
associated with the upper-level outflow of Hurricane Lee. In spite
of the shear, the center appears to be embedded within the main
area of deep convection. However, the overall cloud pattern
remains elongated from west-southwest to east-northeast and
convective banding features are not well defined at this time.

Center fixes indicate that the cyclone continues moving
northwestward, or at about 315/8 kt. Over the next couple of days,
Margot should turn north-northwestward to northward while passing
through a break in the mid-level subtropical ridge. Later in the
forecast period, the system's forward progress could be blocked by a
ridge building to its northwest. Some of the track guidance models,
notably the GFS, show Margot turning eastward around the end of the
forecast period. The official track forecast has been shifted
somewhat to the right of the previous NHC prediction, but is not as
far east as the new GFS solution. This is between the simple and
corrected dynamical consensus tracks.

The dynamical guidance indicates that the vertical wind shear
over Margot should remain moderate to strong for the next 48 hours
or so. In 3 to 5 days the global models show an upper-level
anticyclone developing over the system, which would favor
intensification, although the mid-level humidities are forecast to
be only marginally conducive by that time. Gradual strengthening is
predicted, at just a slightly faster pace than the previous NHC
forecast, and in good agreement with the latest intensity model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 21.6N 39.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 22.5N 39.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 23.9N 40.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 25.4N 40.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 27.0N 40.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 28.8N 41.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 30.7N 41.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 34.0N 41.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 36.0N 40.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 100242
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2023

...MARGOT A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 39.1W
ABOUT 1060 MI...1705 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Margot was
located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 39.1 West. Margot is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn
to the north-northwest and north is expected during the next couple
of days

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Margo is likely to become a hurricane within the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 100241
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
0300 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 39.1W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 15SE 15SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 39.1W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 38.9W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.5N 39.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 23.9N 40.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.4N 40.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.0N 40.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 28.8N 41.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 30.7N 41.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 34.0N 41.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 36.0N 40.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 39.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 092037
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2023

Margot's satellite depiction has not improved much throughout the
afternoon. The system is dealing with west-southwesterly wind
shear, and struggling to become better organized. The low-level
center does have intermittent convective bursts that are then
sheared to the northeast. Given the lack of improvement in
satellite, the subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates from SAB/TAFB remain steady. Therefore, the initial
intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory.

Environmental conditions are currently not very favorable with
moderate vertical wind shear, and dry mid-levels. Despite
the less than favorable environment the intensity guidance indicates
that Margot will gradually strengthen over the next few days as it
enters a more conducive upper-level wind pattern. The NHC forecast
is similar to the previous one, with gradual strengthening
anticipated, and lies near the corrected consensus aids.

Margot is moving northwestward at 8 kt around the edge of a
subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. This northwest motion
will continue during the next day or so, followed by a turn to the
north-northwest and north by late in the weekend and early next
week. Models are in fairly good agreement in the short-term.
However, the track model spread increases in both cross- and
along-track directions beyond day 3. There has been a shift to the
right in the consensus aids, and the NHC has followed suit with a
slight shift to the right in the extended range. However, the NHC
track forecast remains to the left of some of the consensus aids,
and if this trend continues further adjustments to the forecast
track will be needed.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 21.0N 38.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 21.7N 39.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 23.1N 40.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 24.6N 40.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 26.0N 41.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 27.7N 41.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 29.7N 41.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 33.1N 41.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 34.8N 41.8W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 092036
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
500 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2023

...MARGOT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 38.7W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Margot was
located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 38.7 West. Margot is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue during the next day or so. A
north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast to begin by late
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several days, and
Margot is forecast to become a hurricane next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 092035
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 38.7W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 15SE 15SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 38.7W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 38.4W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.7N 39.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.1N 40.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.6N 40.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 26.0N 41.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 27.7N 41.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.7N 41.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 33.1N 41.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 34.8N 41.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 38.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 091444
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2023

Margot is looking a little better organized on satellite imagery
this morning compared to yesterday. A SSMIS microwave pass from
earlier this morning depicted that some banding features are trying
to develop on the northeastern side of the low-level center. The
deep convection also continues to burst near the center of the
system as well, with cold cloud tops. Subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates from SAB/TAFB remain the same as the
previous cycle. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 40 kt for
this advisory.

Margot is currently within an environment of moderate vertical wind
shear and dry mid-level relative humidities. However, despite the
less than favorable environment the intensity guidance indicates
that Margot will gradually strengthen over the next few days as it
enters a more favorable upper-level wind pattern, and continues
over warm sea surface temperatures. The NHC forecast therefore
shows slow strengthening throughout the forecast period, similar to
the previous advisory, and lies near the HCCA and IVCN consensus
aids.

Margot is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt around the edge of a
subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. This west-northwest
motion will continue during the next day or so, followed by a turn
to the northwest and northward by late in the weekend and early next
week, with a slower forward motion. Models are in fairly good
agreement in the short-term. However, the track model spread
increases in both cross- and along-track spread beyond day 3 to 4,
as there is some uncertainty in the steering flow. The NHC track
forecast lies near the model consensus aids, and only slight
adjustments to the previous forecast were made.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 20.5N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 21.2N 39.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 22.3N 40.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 23.6N 40.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 25.0N 41.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 26.6N 41.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 28.4N 41.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 32.0N 42.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 34.3N 43.2W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 091443
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2023

...MARGOT FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 38.0W
ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Margot was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 38.0 West. Margot is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the
next day or so. A north-northwestward to northward motion is
forecast to begin by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several days, and
Margot is forecast to become a hurricane early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 091443
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
1500 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 38.0W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 38.0W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 37.6W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.2N 39.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.3N 40.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 23.6N 40.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.0N 41.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.6N 41.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 28.4N 41.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 32.0N 42.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 34.3N 43.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 38.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 090844
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
500 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2023

Margot has become better organized this morning. The earlier noted
exposed surface center has become obscured with bursts of deep
convection while the outflow pattern has become more diffluent in
the northeast quadrant of the cyclone. Therefore, the initial
intensity is raised to 40 kt and is based on the TAFB and SAB Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates.

Although some northerly shear and dry mid-level air intruding
from the southwest has slowed the intensification rate, the
intensity guidance indicates that Margot will become a hurricane
next week. In fact, the upper-level pattern becomes more favorable
by mid-period, although the statistical SHIPS intensity guidance
shows modest southerly shear at the time. Therefore, the official
forecast indicates gradual intensification through the entire
forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast favors the reliable
multi-model consensus aids, which is just below the Decay SHIPS
beyond day 3.

Margot is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt around the southwestern
periphery of a subtropical high over the eastern Atlantic. A
west-northwest to northwest motion is forecast through early
Sunday, followed by a turn toward north-northwest to north by late
Sunday with some reduction in forward speed. A slight adjustment
to the right of the previous forecast track was made to hedge
closer to the HFIP HCCA corrected consensus aid and TVCA simple
multi-model guidance.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 19.9N 36.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 20.6N 38.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 21.7N 39.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 22.8N 40.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 24.2N 41.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 25.7N 41.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 27.4N 41.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 31.2N 42.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 34.5N 43.4W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 090843
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
500 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2023

...MARGOT STRENGTHENING OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 36.9W
ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Margot was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 36.9 West. Margot is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected through
early Sunday. A north-northwestward to northward motion is
forecast to begin by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening should continue through
early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 090843
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
0900 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 36.9W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 36.9W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 36.4W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.6N 38.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.7N 39.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.8N 40.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.2N 41.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.7N 41.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 27.4N 41.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 31.2N 42.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 34.5N 43.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 36.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 090244
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2023

Margot hasn't become any better organized during the last six hours.
Deep convection is limited to the northeast quadrant of the sheared
tropical storm. A pair of ASCAT passes showed winds up to 30 kt in
the eastern half of the cyclone, but did not sample the location
where the maximum winds are likely occuring. Satellite estimates
from TAFB and the ADT were therefore used as the basis for the
intensity for this advisory, which is still 35 kt.

Despite the shear and some dry air around the tropical storm noted
in water vapor imagery, all of the intensity guidance indicates that
Margot will strengthen over the next few days. The NHC forecast
therefore shows slow strengthening throughout the forecast period,
similar to the previous advisory. Most of the models are similar to
the NHC forecast, but both HAFS models are outliers, showing Margot
strengthening to a major hurricane in 3-4 days. This appears
unlikely at least within the next 3 days or so, given the expected
wind shear and the current structure of the tropical storm.
Therefore, the NHC forecast is very close to, but generally just
below the intensity consensus.

In contrast, there is higher confidence in the track forecast. All
models indicate that Margot will continue its current
west-northwestward motion for another day or so, and then turn
north-northwestward to northward after that. The track model spread
increases quickly beyond day 4, at which time confidence in the
forecast is a little lower than normal. The model consensus hasn't
changed much, so only small adjustments were made to the official
track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 19.5N 35.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 20.4N 37.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 21.5N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 22.6N 40.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 23.9N 41.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 25.5N 42.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 27.0N 42.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 30.0N 43.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 33.0N 43.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 090243
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2023

...MARGOT NOT YET STRENGTHENING BUT STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 35.8W
ABOUT 810 MI...1310 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Margot was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 35.8 West. Margot is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). This general
motion should continue overnight. A slower north-northwestward to
northward motion is forecast to begin by late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected through early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 090243
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
0300 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 35.8W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 35.8W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 35.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.4N 37.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.5N 39.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.6N 40.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 23.9N 41.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.5N 42.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.0N 42.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 30.0N 43.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 33.0N 43.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 35.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 082036
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2023

Margot continues to be a disorganized tropical storm. Over the past
few hours, visible satellite depicts the low-level center has become
exposed with deep convection displaced to the northeast. This deep
convection has continued to persist, however the system has not
become better organized today. An earlier AMSR2 microwave pass
showed that the structure of the system is fairly poor with very
little banding features. Subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates from SAB/TAFB for this advisory were unchanged
for this cycle. Given the disorganized structure and the satellite
estimates, the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 15 kt along
the southern edge of a mid-level ridge. Margot is expected to
continue this general motion for the next day or so. Afterwards a
weakness in the ridge will allow for a turn more northwestward, then
northward by early next week. Overall, models are in fairly good
cross-track agreement in the short term. However beyond day
3, there begins to be some divergence in the model suite, due to
uncertainty in the steering flow. The ECMWF lies on the left side of
the envelope, while the GFS is on the right side. The official
track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies in the
center of the guidance closest to the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids.

The intensity forecast is fairly difficult given the mixed
environmental conditions. Sea surface temperatures are sufficiently
warm along the forecast track, but vertical wind shear is already
impacting the system and is forecast to remain throughout much of
the forecast period. Given the competing factors and current lack of
organization, the intensity guidance shows only gradual
strengthening throughout the forecast period. The official forecast
is similar to the previous, near the intensity consensus aids the
IVCN and HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 18.8N 34.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 19.8N 36.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 21.0N 38.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 22.2N 40.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 23.6N 41.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 25.1N 41.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 26.9N 42.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 30.0N 42.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 33.1N 43.4W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 082036
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2023

...MARGOT FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 34.3W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Margot was
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 34.3 West. Margot is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue the next day or so, followed by a
decrease in forward motion and a turn northwestward, then northward
early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual strengthening is forecast the next several days, with
Margot forecast to become a hurricane early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 082035
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 34.3W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 15SE 15SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 34.3W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 33.6W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.8N 36.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.0N 38.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.2N 40.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.6N 41.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.1N 41.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 26.9N 42.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 30.0N 42.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 33.1N 43.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 34.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 081455
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2023

Margot has not changed much this morning. Deep convection has
persisted throughout the morning to the north and east of the
low-level center. Subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates from SAB/TAFB and UW-CIMMS range from 30 to 40kt for
this cycle. Using a blend of these estimates, the intensity is
held at 35 kt for this advisory.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 15 kt as
it traverses the southern edge of a mid-level ridge. Margot is
expected to continue this general motion for the next day or so,
after which it is expected to gradually turn northwestward this
weekend and then northward by early next week. Global and regional
models are in generally good agreement for the next several days,
but toward the end of the forecast period the track guidance
diverges significantly as uncertainty in the steering flow
increases. The official track forecast is similar to the previous
advisory, and lies near the center of the guidance envelope.

The intensity forecast is complex. Sea surface temperatures are
sufficiently warm along the forecast track, but vertical wind shear
is expected to increase during the next day or so and remain strong
throughout much of the forecast period. Despite the vertical wind
shear, global and regional hurricane models are in generally good
agreement that Margot will gradually intensify throughout the
forecast period. The official intensity forecast is similar to the
prior advisory and represents a blend of the consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 18.0N 32.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 18.9N 34.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 20.1N 37.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 21.4N 39.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 22.7N 40.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 24.3N 41.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 25.9N 42.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 28.8N 42.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 31.8N 43.7W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 081453
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2023

...MARGOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 32.5W
ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Margot was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 32.5 West. Margot is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue for the next day or two, with a turn
towards a more northwestward motion early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Margot is forecast to become a hurricane later this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Kelly

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 081453
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
1500 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 32.5W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 15SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 32.5W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 31.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.9N 34.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.1N 37.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.4N 39.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.7N 40.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.3N 41.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.9N 42.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 28.8N 42.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 31.8N 43.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 32.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/KELLY

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 080836
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
500 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2023

Deep convection has been gradually increasing near and to the north
of the center of Margot during the past few hours. The satellite
intensity estimates range from 30 to 38 kt, and based on that data,
the initial wind speed is held at 35 kt.

Margot is moving to the west-northwest at about 14 kt on the
southwest side of a mid-level ridge. The storm is expected to
gradually turn to the northwest and then the north as it moves
toward a weakness in the ridge induced by a mid- to upper-level low
over the central subtropical Atlantic. The models are in fairly
good agreement, but there are some differences on where and when
Margot makes the northward turn. The NHC track forecast is similar
to the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Global models show Margot strengthening for unconventional reasons.
While there are sufficiently warm ocean water along the forecast
track, deep-layer vertical wind shear is expected to be strong to
moderate as the storm nears an upper-level low pressure. Typically,
increased shear would lead to a weakening cyclone, but Margot could
be positioned beneath an area of diffluence leading to increased
convection and therefore, strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one and near the IVCN and HCCA consensus
models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 17.4N 30.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 18.2N 33.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 19.4N 35.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 20.6N 37.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 21.9N 39.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 23.5N 40.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 25.2N 41.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 28.3N 42.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 31.4N 43.1W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 080835
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
500 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2023

...MARGOT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 30.8W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Margot was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 30.8 West. Margot is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue through the weekend, followed by a
turn toward the northwest early next week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days,
and Margot is forecast to become a hurricane over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 080835
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
0900 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 30.8W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 30.8W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 30.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.2N 33.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.4N 35.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.6N 37.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.9N 39.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.5N 40.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.2N 41.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 28.3N 42.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 31.4N 43.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 30.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 080253
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
200 AM CVT Fri Sep 08 2023

The convective organization of Margot has changed little tonight.
The storm is producing some sheared convection to the north of its
center with modest signs of curvature. An earlier 37 GHz GMI
microwave image of Margot suggested the low-level center was a bit
south of previous estimates, and this is consistent with the now
partially exposed center that has emerged in recent proxy-visible
imagery. The satellite intensity estimates are unchanged from
earlier today, and the intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory.

The SSTs along Margot's track are plenty warm enough to support some
intensification over the next few days. On the other hand, there is
a good amount of dry air in the surrounding environment, and
southwesterly deep-layer shear is forecast to increase over Margot
during the next several days in association with an upper-level
trough over the central Atlantic. Interestingly, the increased shear
diagnosed from the SHIPS guidance occurs around the same time as
increasing upper-level divergence over the cyclone. This seems to
suggest that some of the intensification in the global models could
be driven by positive interaction with the upper trough. Since most
of the global and regional hurricane models show Margot becoming a
hurricane during the next few days, the NHC forecast follows suit
and shows slow strengthening throughout the period. This forecast
lies between the latest HCCA and IVCN multi-model aids.

Margot is moving west-northwestward at 295/14 kt around a ridge over
the eastern Atlantic. This general motion should continue for the
next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the northwest and
north-northwest at a slightly slower forward speed at days 3-5 as a
weakness develops in the subtropical ridge. The track model
consensus this cycle has trended slower and to the left of the
previous prediction. As a result, the updated NHC track forecast has
been adjusted accordingly.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 16.8N 29.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 17.5N 31.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 18.6N 34.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 19.9N 36.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 21.2N 38.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 22.7N 40.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 24.5N 41.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 28.0N 42.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 31.0N 43.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 080252
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
200 AM CVT Fri Sep 08 2023

...MARGOT MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL EASTERN
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM CVT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 29.3W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM CVT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Margot was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 29.3 West. Margot is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue through the weekend, followed by a
turn toward the northwest early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and
Margot is forecast to become a hurricane over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 080252
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
0300 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 29.3W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 29.3W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 28.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.5N 31.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.6N 34.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.9N 36.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.2N 38.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.7N 40.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.5N 41.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 28.0N 42.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 31.0N 43.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 29.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 072049
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
800 PM CVT Thu Sep 07 2023

Visible and infrared satellite imagery have shown increasingly
organized convection, with some convective bursts and curved banding
features around the low-level center. Dvorak classifications from
TAFB and SAB have increased to T2.5/35 kt. Therefore, the initial
intensity is set at 35 kt, making the system a tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Margot is currently moving west-northwestward, and
this motion is forecast to continue over the next couple days. A
decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north is indicated by
the end of the forecast period as a weakness develops in the
subtropical ridge over east-central Atlantic. The track guidance is
in general agreement, and the NHC track forecast once again lies
between the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids.

Sea surface temperatures remain in the vicinity of 28C, but Margot
could encounter moderate wind shear and drier mid-level relative
humidities later in the forecast period. In general, these
conditions are not expected to be too hostile, and gradual
strengthening is indicated. The NHC wind speed forecast brings
Margot to hurricane strength in two to three days. The NHC intensity
forecast lies near the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 16.8N 28.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 17.5N 30.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 18.5N 33.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 19.8N 36.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 21.1N 38.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 22.6N 39.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 24.4N 41.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 28.0N 42.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 31.5N 43.1W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Camposano

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 072048
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Margot Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
800 PM CVT Thu Sep 07 2023

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM MARGOT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 28.3W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Margot was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 28.3 West. Margot is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and
Margot is forecast to become a hurricane over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Camposano

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 072048
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
2100 UTC THU SEP 07 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 28.3W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 28.3W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 27.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.5N 30.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 10SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.5N 33.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.8N 36.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.1N 38.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.6N 39.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.4N 41.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 28.0N 42.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 31.5N 43.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 28.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/CAMPOSANO

>

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 071450
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
200 PM CVT Thu Sep 07 2023

Visible and infrared satellite imagery depicts that showers and
thunderstorms have become better organized around a well-defined
low-level center associated with the low pressure area (AL96) that
NHC has been tracking the past few days. Subjective satellite
Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T2.0/30 kt.
Given the better defined low-level center and these satellite
estimates, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression
Fourteen over the far eastern Atlantic, with an initial intensity
of 30 kt.

The depression is moving generally west-northwest and this
motion is forecast to continue over the next few days, with a
decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north at the end of the
forecast period, into a weakness in the tropical ridge. The
guidance envelope is in fairly good agreement and the NHC track
forecast lies between the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids.

Tropical Depression Fourteen is forecast to be over warm sea surface
temperatures near 28-29 degrees Celsius during the next several
days. However, the depression will encounter some northerly vertical
wind shear, and drier mid-level relative humidities along the
current forecast track. Given the mixed environmental conditions the
NHC forecast calls for gradual strengthening during the early part
of the forecast but brings the system to hurricane strength before
the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the HCCA
and IVCN intensity consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 15.7N 26.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 16.4N 28.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 17.3N 31.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 18.5N 34.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 19.8N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 21.0N 38.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 22.4N 40.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 26.1N 41.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 30.2N 42.7W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Camposano

>

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 071449
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023
200 PM CVT Thu Sep 07 2023

...DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 26.4W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen
was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 26.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next
several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next several days, and
the depression is forecast become a tropical storm later today or
tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Camposano

>

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 071449
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 26.4W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 26.4W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 25.7W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.4N 28.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.3N 31.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.5N 34.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.8N 37.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.0N 38.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.4N 40.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 26.1N 41.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 30.2N 42.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 26.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/CAMPOSANO

>