Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for FOURTEEN-E-24 Off-shore from 06 Nov 2024 15:00 UTC to 07 Nov 2024 21:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for FOURTEEN-E-24

Off-shore

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GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

07/11 20:41 WTPZ44KNHC072040

07/11 20:40 WTPZ34KNHC072039

07/11 20:40 WTPZ24KNHC072038

07/11 14:51 WTPZ44KNHC071449

07/11 14:50 WTPZ34KNHC071448

07/11 14:49 WTPZ24KNHC071448

07/11 08:45 WTPZ34KNHC070844

07/11 08:43 WTPZ44KNHC070841

07/11 08:42 WTPZ34KNHC070841

07/11 08:42 WTPZ24KNHC070840

07/11 02:47 WTPZ44KNHC070246

07/11 02:46 WTPZ34KNHC070244

07/11 02:44 WTPZ24KNHC070243

06/11 20:38 WTPZ44KNHC062037

06/11 20:38 WTPZ34KNHC062036

06/11 20:37 WTPZ24KNHC062036

06/11 14:54 WTPZ44KNHC061453

06/11 14:53 WTPZ24KNHC061452

06/11 14:53 WTPZ34KNHC061452

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 072040
TCDEP4

REMNANTS OF FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142024
300 PM CST THU NOV 07 2024

FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED THAT
THE DEPRESSION HAS DISSIPATED. BASED ON THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
MOTIONS, TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E NO LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION AND APPEARS TO BE A TROUGH OPEN TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND THEN LINGER IN THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 12.6N 103.8W 20 KT 25 MPH
12H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 072039
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF FOURTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142024
300 PM CST THU NOV 07 2024

...DEPRESSION DISSIPATES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 103.8W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), THE REMNANTS OF FOURTEEN-E WERE LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 103.8 WEST. THE REMNANTS ARE
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H) AND ARE
EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH (35 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB (29.80 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS
OF FOURTEEN-E, PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02
KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 072038
TCMEP4

REMNANTS OF FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142024
2100 UTC THU NOV 07 2024

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 103.8W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 103.8W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 104.0W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 103.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS
OF FOURTEEN-E PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02
KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 071449
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142024
900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

The depression is once again struggling to produce deep organized
convection. Thunderstorms from the diurnal maximum overnight have
dissipated, and the low-level center is nearing an area of
convection not associated with the depression. Furthermore, the
outflow boundaries from the adjacent thunderstorms seem to be
disrupting the low-level circulation. The TAFB Dvorak Final-T has
also trended downward to T1.5, reflecting the decaying convective
organization. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous
25 kt for this advisory.

Environmental conditions should remain marginal to hostile and
prevent further strengthening. Global models continue to predict
that the depression should open into a trough within a day, though
it is possible this has already occurred. The latest official
intensity forecast still shows dissipation occurring by Friday.

The depression is moving at an uncertain 110/4 kt. The low-level
flow is expected to turn the depression to the southeast soon. The
NHC track position is near the corrected consensus aid, HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 13.2N 104.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 12.3N 103.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 071448
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142024
900 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

...DEPRESSION UNRAVELING...

SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 104.4W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen-E was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 104.4
West. The depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 5 mph
(7 km/h). A slightly faster southeastward motion is expected later
today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is forecast to dissipate on Friday, although that
could occur sooner.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 071448
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142024
1500 UTC THU NOV 07 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 104.4W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 104.4W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 104.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 12.3N 103.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 104.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 070844
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142024
300 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

...DEPRESSION POORLY ORGANIZED...

SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 104.9W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen-E was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 104.9
West. The depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 2 mph
(4 km/h). A slightly faster southeastward motion is expected later
today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is forecast to dissipate on Friday, although that
could occur sooner.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 070841
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142024
300 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

The depression has finally managed to produce some deep convection,
mainly to the northwest of the low-level center, during the diurnal
maximum period tonight. A partial scatterometer pass around 0410 UTC
depicted 20-25 kt winds in the northwestern quadrant, thus the
initial intensity is held at 25 kt for this advisory.

The depression is currently within a moderate vertical wind shear
environment, and this shear is not allowing convection to become
organized around the low-level center. Global models are in fairly
good agreement that the system will degenerate and open into a
trough within the next day or so, although this could occur sooner
than forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast follows these
trends and now shows the system dissipating in 24 h.

The system has been moving slowly the last several hours with an
estimated east-southeastward motion around 110/02 kt. A more
southeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is
anticipated later today within the low-level northwesterly wind
flow. The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous, which lies
near the simple and corrected-consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 13.4N 104.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 12.5N 104.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 070841
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142024
300 AM CST THU NOV 07 2024

...DEPRESSION POORLY ORGANIZED..

SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 104.9W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.9
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH
(4 KM/H). A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THAT
COULD OCCUR SOONER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 070840
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142024
0900 UTC THU NOV 07 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 104.9W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 104.9W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 105.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.5N 104.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 104.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 070246
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142024
900 PM CST WED NOV 06 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FAILED TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR ITS CENTER FROM 1800 UTC TO 0000 UTC, BUT
RECENTLY, SOME CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING UP IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM MIDDAY WEDNESDAY SHOWED
THAT THE CIRCULATION JUST BARELY MET THE DEFINITION OF BEING
CONSIDERED WELL-DEFINED, WITH 20-25 KT WIND VECTORS SEEN IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WEAKER WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.

THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WARM OCEAN
TEMPERATURES BUT MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS
SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE AND IS UNLIKELY TO ALLOW ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION TO ORGANIZE AROUND THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL CENTER. GLOBAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
IN FACT, MOST GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE DEPRESSION OPENING UP INTO A
TROUGH IN ABOUT 24 H. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS, AND INDICATES DISSIPATION IN 24-36 H.

LOW-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEM TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 H UNTIL IT DISSIPATES. A MINOR
SOUTHWESTWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST, CLOSER
TO THE LATEST CONSENSUS MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 13.4N 104.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 12.7N 104.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 11.9N 103.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 070244
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142024
900 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION LIKELY TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO...

SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 104.9W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen-E was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 104.9
West. The depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 3 mph
(6 km/h). A slightly faster southeastward motion is expected over
the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and the depression could
become a remnant low or dissipate at any time over the next day or
so.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 070243
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142024
0300 UTC THU NOV 07 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 104.9W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 104.9W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 105.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 12.7N 104.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 11.9N 103.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 104.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 062037
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142024
300 PM CST WED NOV 06 2024

FOURTEEN-E IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.
COLD CLOUD TOPS IN THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAVE WARMED LEAVING A
SMALL, ISOLATED BURST OF CONVECTION OVER 70 MILES WEST OF THE
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE DERIVED SURFACE
WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED PEAK WINDS BETWEEN
20-22 KT AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KT FOR
THIS CYCLE.

THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED EASTWARD WITH AN ESTIMATED FORWARD SPEED
OF 5 KT. ON THURSDAY, THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EAST-SOUTHWARD TO
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE NEAR-SURFACE FLOW AND MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL
MOTION INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS
SHIFTED BY QUITE A BIT TO THE EAST DUE TO THE MORE ACCURATE INITIAL
POSITION PROVIDED BY THE SCATTEROMETER DATA. IT LIES CLOSEST TO THE
SIMPLE CONSENSUS AID, TVCE.

AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR SEEM TO
BE PREVENTING THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION FROM ORGANIZING FURTHER.
SHIPS FORECAST DIAGNOSTICS HAVE CHANGED NOTICEABLY THIS CYCLE.
INSTEAD OF LIGHT-TO-MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GLOBAL MODELS ARE
NOW PREDICTING THE SHEAR WILL BE MODERATE-TO-STRONG. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED DOWNWARD AS A RESULT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN LOWERED TO ONLY SHOW A DEPRESSION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH DISSIPATION OCCURRING EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS IS IF
THE SYSTEM CAN REGAIN DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND MAINTAIN ITS
TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 13.5N 105.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 13.2N 104.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 12.4N 103.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 11.6N 102.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 11.0N 102.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 10.8N 101.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 062036
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142024
300 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRUGGLING...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 105.1W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen-E was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 105.1
West. The depression is moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h).
A turn toward the east-southeast is forecast tonight followed by
turn toward the southeast on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days. The depression should degenerate into remnant low by
Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 062036
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142024
2100 UTC WED NOV 06 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 105.1W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 105.1W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 105.4W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 13.2N 104.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.4N 103.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 11.6N 102.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 11.0N 102.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 10.8N 101.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 105.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 061453
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142024
800 AM MST WED NOV 06 2024

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEEN TRACKING A WELL-DEFINED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST. BEGINNING AROUND 2300 UTC ON TUESDAY,
DEEP CONVECTION FORMED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COLD CLOUD
TOPS HAVE PERSISTED FOR OVER 15 HOURS. TAFB HAS CLASSIFIED THIS
SYSTEM WITH A T2.0, INDICATING THAT IS HAS REACHED THE NECESSARY
REQUIREMENTS OF MAINTAINING DEEP, ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THEREFORE,
THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT. SCATTEROMETER DATA IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER INTENSITY
ESTIMATE.

THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AT 3 KT. A NARROW
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND EXPECTED
TO TURN THE DEPRESSION EASTWARD LATER TODAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BRIEFLY ACCELERATE AND TURN MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD
ON THURSDAY BEFORE DRIFTING BACK TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY IN
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE SIMPLE
AND CORRECTED CONSENSUS AIDS.

SURROUNDING DRY MID-LEVEL HUMIDITIES AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR SEEM TO BE THE LIMITING FACTORS PREVENTING THE DEPRESSION FROM
ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THERE SHOULD
BE A BRIEF PERIOD IN ABOUT DAY OR SO THAT THE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SHOULD RELAX SLIGHTLY AND POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
STRENGTHENING. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND AND OPEN INTO A TROUGH. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THIS OCCURS SOONER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 13.1N 106.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 13.1N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 12.5N 104.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 11.3N 103.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 10.6N 103.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 10.2N 102.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 10.1N 102.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 061452
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142024
1500 UTC WED NOV 06 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 106.1W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 106.1W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 106.4W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 13.1N 105.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 12.5N 104.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 11.3N 103.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 10.6N 103.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 10.2N 102.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 10.1N 102.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 106.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 061452
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142024
800 AM MST WED NOV 06 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 106.1W
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.1
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH (6
KM/H) AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD LATER TODAY. A TURN TOWARD
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY
GRADUAL WEAKENING.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM MST.

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI=

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