Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MAWAR-23
in Japan, Guam

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone MAWAR-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1000972
Name MAWAR-23
From - To 20 May - 29 May
Exposed countries Japan, Guam
Exposed population 230 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 296 km/h Category 5
Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (24 May 08:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Guam)

GDACS Score

For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS JTWC 194 km/h 0.8 m n.a. 0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 292 km/h 0.7 m 1110 mm 2.5
GFS 245 km/h 0.6 m 964 mm 2.5
ECMWF 122 km/h 0.6 m 818 mm 0.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Guam, Northern Mariana Islands - Tropical cyclone MAWAR (ECHO 22 May 2023)Mon, 22 May 2023 11:36

  • Tropical cyclone MAWAR, formed over the North Pacific Ocean on 20 May and is moving north-northwest towards Guam Island (USA). On 22 May at 0.00 UTC, its centre was located over the ocean approximately 570 km south-southeast of Guam with maximum sustained winds of 157 km/h.
  • MAWAR is forecast to continue north-northwest, to turn north-west on 23 May and to cross northern Guam Island on 24 May with maximum expected winds of 185-205 km/h.
  • On 22-25 May heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and mudslides are forecast for Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands. A Typhoon Warning is in effect for Guam and Rota (Northern Mariana Islands). A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Tinian and Saipan (Northern Mariana Islands).
Guam, Northern Mariana Islands - Tropical Cyclone MAWAR, update (ECHO 23 May 2023)Tue, 23 May 2023 10:05

  • Tropical cyclone MAWAR continued north-northwest over the North Pacific Ocean towards Guam Island and the southern Northern Mariana Islands (USA). On 23 May around 6.00 UTC, its centre was located over the ocean approximately 255 km south-east of Guam with maximum sustained winds of 213 km/h.
  • MAWAR is forecast to continue north-west strengthening and it is expected to make landfall over central Guam in the morning, UTC of 24 May with maximum expected winds up to 230 km/h.
  • Heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surge are forecast over Guam and southern Northern Mariana Islands (in particular the Rota Island) over 23-25 May. NOAA has issued a Typhoon Warning over Guam and Rota and a Tropical Storm Warning over Tinian and Saipan Islands (Northern Mariana Islands). Lou Leon Guerrero Governor of Guam instructed residents who might be in danger from flooding to evacuate.
  • It is expected the system to strengthen as it moves west-northwest and approaches northern Luzon, an island of the Philippines that's home to the nation's capital Manila, or the southern Ryukyu Islands of Japan early next week.
MAWAR-23 - EC/ECHO daily mapTue, 23 May 2023 17:17

A new EC/ECHO daily map is now available
Guam, Northern Mariana Islands - Tropical Cyclone MAWAR, update (ECHO 24 May 2023)Wed, 24 May 2023 10:52

  • Tropical cyclone MAWAR continued north-west over the North Pacific Ocean towards Guam Island and the southern Northern Mariana Islands (USA), slightly weakening. On 24 May around 3.30 UTC, its centre was located over the ocean very close to Guam, approximately 65 km east, with maximum sustained winds of 225 km/h.
  • The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) reports, as of 23 May, 567 preventively evacuated people in 19 shelters across the Guam Islands.
  • MAWAR is forecast to make landfall over central Guam on 24 May during the mid-morning (UTC) with maximum sustained winds around 220 km/h. After that, it is forecast to continue north-west over the Philippine Sea and it is expected to reach the area of the Luzon Strait (between northern Philippines and southern Taiwan) on 29 May, as a tropical cyclone.
  • Heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surge are forecast over Guam and southern Northern Mariana Islands (in particular the Rota Island) over 24-25 May. The Typhoon Warning over Guam and Rota and the Tropical Storm Warning over Tinian and Saipan Islands (Northern Mariana Islands) issued by NOAA are still in force. A new Flash Flood Warning over Guam was issued by NOAA.
  • The American Red Cross is working with both local emergency management officials as well as other humanitarian agencies, to meet the needs of the communities affected.
Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Phillippines - Tropical Cyclone MAWAR, update (ECHO 25 May 2023)Thu, 25 May 2023 10:23

  • Tropical cyclone MAWAR passed north of the Guam Island during mid-morning (UTC) of 24 May with maximum sustained winds of 222 km/h. On 25 May around 3.00 (UTC), its centre was located over the Philippine Sea, approximately 200 km north-west of Guam and 2,250 km south-east of northern Luzon (Philippines), with maximum sustained winds of 249 km/h.
  • The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) reports, as of 24 May, 927 evacuated people in 17 shelters across Guam and Rota Islands. Furthermore, schools and government offices are closed on both Islands.
  • MAWAR is forecast to continue north-west over the Philippine Sea and to enter in the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in the late evening (UTC) of 26 May. It is expected to reach the area of the Luzon Strait (between northern Philippines and southern Taiwan) on 30 May. 
  • Strong winds are forecast over Guam and the southern Northern Mariana Islands on 25 May. The Typhoon Warning over Guam and Rota issued by NOAA is in force.
  • In addition, heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surges are forecast over northern Luzon on 28-30 May.
Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Phillippines - Tropical Cyclone MAWAR, update (ECHO 26 May 2023)Fri, 26 May 2023 10:42

  • On 25 May, tropical cyclone MAWAR continued north-west over the eastern Philippine Sea, strengthening. On 26 May at 3.00 UTC, its centre was located over the sea, approximately 1,750 km east-southeast of northern Luzon (Philippines), with maximum sustained winds of 298 km/h.
  • After its passage over Guam, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) reports, as of 25 May, 2,062 evacuated people in 34 shelters across Guam and Rota Islands. Furthermore, ten injured people were reported across both Islands.
  • MAWAR is forecast to enter in the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in early morning (UTC) of 27 May early. It is expected to reach the area of the Luzon Strait (between northern Philippines and southern Taiwan) between 30-31 May, with maximum sustained winds of 165 km/h.
  • There are no Warnings are in force over Guam and Rota Islands. In addition, heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surges are forecast over northern Luzon over 29-30 May.
Detailed event map. European Union, 2023. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

Latest media headlines

Articles: 563 | About casualties: 1 | Last hour: 0

Typhoon Mawar strikes Guam, much of island without power, water2023-05-29T04:36+0200.

After Typhoon Mawar brought strong winds and torrential rains, large areas of the US Western Pacific territory of Guam were left without power and water; Crews were working to restore electricity, giving priority to critical infrastructure
...(more)
Typhoon Mawar strikes Guam, much of island without power, water2023-05-29T04:34+0200.

After Typhoon Mawar brought strong winds and torrential rains, large areas of the US Western Pacific territory of Guam were left without power and water; Crews were working to restore electricity, giving priority to critical infrastructure
...(more)
Typhoon Mawar strikes Guam, much of island without power, water2023-05-29T04:30+0200.

After Typhoon Mawar brought strong winds and torrential rains, large areas of the US Western Pacific territory of Guam were left without power and water; Crews were working to restore electricity, giving priority to critical infrastructure
...(more)
Typhoon Mawar leaves large areas of Guam without power, water2023-05-29T04:22+0200.

GUAM: After Typhoon Mawar brought strong winds and torrential rains, large areas of the US Western Pacific territory of Guam were left without power and water, but there were no reported deaths or major injuries. According to local media an
...(more)

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (40), (2), INFORM (2),