Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for DUMAZILE-18 in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar from 02 Mar 2018 12:00 UTC to 05 Mar 2018 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for DUMAZILE-18

in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DUMAZILE-18 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	213 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (03 Mar 21:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Reunion)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	185 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	213 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

185 km/h Current Max.

Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	02 Mar 2018 12:00	194	8.8 million	No people	Madagascar, Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
2	02 Mar 2018 18:00	213	8.6 million	No people	Madagascar, Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
3	03 Mar 2018 00:00	213	8.3 million	No people	Madagascar, Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
4	03 Mar 2018 06:00	204	9.4 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
5	03 Mar 2018 12:00	157	17.1 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
6	03 Mar 2018 18:00	148	16.9 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
7	04 Mar 2018 00:00	157	17 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
8	04 Mar 2018 06:00	157	18.9 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius
9	04 Mar 2018 12:00	176	16.9 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius
10	04 Mar 2018 18:00	176	15.9 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
11	05 Mar 2018 00:00	194	12.8 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
12	05 Mar 2018 06:00	194	10.4 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius
13	05 Mar 2018 12:00	194	10.6 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
14	05 Mar 2018 18:00	185	10.1 million	No people	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	02 Mar 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-12.6, 54.2
2	02 Mar 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-12.8, 54.4
3	03 Mar 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	<1000 people	-14.1, 54.2	Madagascar
4	03 Mar 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	1.1 million people	-14.9, 53.4	Madagascar
5	03 Mar 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	3.9 million people	-15.3, 52.4	Madagascar
6	03 Mar 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	8.4 million people	-16, 52.1	Madagascar
7	04 Mar 2018 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	11.7 million people	-16.6, 51.6	Madagascar
8	04 Mar 2018 06:00	Category 1	130	no people	14.7 million people	-17.7, 51.3	Madagascar
9	04 Mar 2018 12:00	Category 1	148	no people	12 million people	-18.5, 50.8	Madagascar
10	04 Mar 2018 18:00	Category 1	148	no people	12.4 million people	-19.4, 50.6	Madagascar
11	05 Mar 2018 00:00	Category 2	167	no people	7.1 million people	-20.3, 51	Madagascar
12	05 Mar 2018 06:00	Category 3	185	no people	3.7 million people	-21, 51.3	Madagascar
13	05 Mar 2018 12:00	Category 3	194	no people	2.6 million people	-22.1, 51.7	Madagascar
14	05 Mar 2018 18:00	Category 3	185	no people	1.1 million people	-22.9, 52.2	Madagascar
14	06 Mar 2018 06:00	Category 2	176	no people	840000 people	-24.4, 53.4	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
14	06 Mar 2018 18:00	Category 2	157	no people	840000 people	-25.8, 54.8	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
14	07 Mar 2018 06:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-27.4, 56
14	07 Mar 2018 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-29.5, 57.7
14	08 Mar 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-32.9, 60.1

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Mahalevona, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 03 Mar 2018 21:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (115 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 14 of 05 Mar 2018 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.4
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.3
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.3
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.3
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.3
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.3
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.3
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.3
	03 Mar 2018 22:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.3
	04 Mar 2018 07:00	Antetezambaro	Madagascar	0.3
	04 Mar 2018 07:00	Ambodihariha	Madagascar	0.3
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 22:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 06:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 06:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 06:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 06:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 07:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 22:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 22:00	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 13:00	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 13:00	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 19:00	Anaovandrano	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 06:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Fadrina	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Manambato	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 08:00	Tamatave	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 22:00	Ankazomalemy	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 19:00	Ratsianarana	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 19:00	Ambodivato	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 19:00	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 19:00	Anjanozana	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 19:00	Ampanavoana	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 06:00	Foulpointe	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 18:00	Vohitramposina	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Mar 2018 21:00	Befasy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Mar 2018 21:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Mar 2018 21:00	Manambondro	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 18:00	Ambohitralanana	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 08:00	Ankarefo	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Mar 2018 13:00	Ambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 07:00	Ambinanysahavary	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 19:00	Maniroka	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 08:00	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 06:00	Tampina	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 17:00	Manakambahiny	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 18:00	Marosiky	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Mar 2018 13:00	Saint-Louis	Reunion	0.1
	06 Mar 2018 13:00	Saint-Pierre	Reunion	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 18:00	Ambodiharina	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 12:00	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 12:00	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Bobasakoa	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 06:00	Taratasy	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 19:00	Antanjokatafana	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 08:00	Ampitabe	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 08:00	Kalomalala	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 18:00	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 13:00	Ampanakana	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 13:00	Fararano	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 13:00	Antsorokaka	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 08:00	Marofinaritra	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 07:00	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 07:00	Andrafialava	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 06:00	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 08:00	Vavony	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 08:00	Ampanotoamaizina	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 08:00	Amboditafara	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 17:00	Vatomandry	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Mar 2018 21:00	Akondro	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 05:00	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 07:00	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 07:00	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 19:00	Maintinandry	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.