Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for LUCAS-21 in New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands from 31 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC to 01 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LUCAS-21

in New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands

01 Feb 2021 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LUCAS-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	120 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (02 Feb 22:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (New Caledonia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	111 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	120 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

111 km/h Current Max.

Up to 280000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	31 Jan 2021 00:00	139	300 thousand	Few people	New Caledonia
2	31 Jan 2021 06:00	157	510 thousand	10 thousand	New Caledonia
3	31 Jan 2021 12:00	148	510 thousand	No people	Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Vanuatu
4	31 Jan 2021 18:00	130	400 thousand	No people	Vanuatu, New Caledonia
5	01 Feb 2021 00:00	111	280 thousand	No people	New Caledonia

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	31 Jan 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-13.9, 152.3
2	31 Jan 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-13.9, 153.2
3	31 Jan 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	2600 people	-13.1, 155.2
4	31 Jan 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.4, 157.2
5	01 Feb 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-14.1, 158.5
5	01 Feb 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-15.4, 161.8
5	02 Feb 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	72000 people	-17.3, 164.5
5	02 Feb 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	270000 people	-19.3, 166.1
5	03 Feb 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	270000 people	-21.1, 166.6
5	04 Feb 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	190000 people	-23.2, 166.2
5	05 Feb 2021 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-25, 164.1

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
New Caledonia

Provinces

Region Province	Country
New Caledonia	New Caledonia

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Comm. du Mont-Dore		New Caledonia	City	-
Nouméa		New Caledonia	Capital	83000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Belep	BMY	unknown				0
Poum	PUV	unknown				0
Koumac	KOC	13	Civ.	Paved	No	3600
Hienghene	HNG	unknown				0
Kone	KNQ	7	Civ.	Paved	No	3200
Touho	TOU	3	Civ.	Paved	No	3600
Mueo	PDC	unknown				0
Houailou / Nesson	HLU	3	Civ.	Paved	No	3200
Ouvea Ouloup	UVE	7	Civ.	Paved	No	3600
Wanaham	LIF	28	Civ.	Paved	No	3600
La Tontouta	NOU	16	Civ.	Paved	Yes	10600
Noumea / Magenta	GEA	3	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4100
Ile Ouen	IOU	unknown				0
Mare la Roche	MEE	43	Civ.	Paved	No	3200
Ile Des Pins Moue	ILP	96	Civ.	Paved	No	3600

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Babouillat		New Caledonia
Nepoui	NCNEP	New Caledonia
Baie Ugue	NCBUG	New Caledonia
Baie de Poro	NCPOR	New Caledonia
Kouaoua	NCKOU	New Caledonia
Thialis	NCTHI	New Caledonia
We		New Caledonia
Ducos	NCDUS	New Caledonia
Noumea	NCNOU	New Caledonia
Tadine		New Caledonia
Kuto		New Caledonia

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Wadrilla, New Caledonia. This height is estimated for 02 Feb 2021 22:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (78 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 5 of 01 Feb 2021 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	02 Feb 2021 22:00	Wadrilla	New Caledonia	0.5
	02 Feb 2021 22:00	Lekia	New Caledonia	0.5
	02 Feb 2021 22:00	Fayaoue	New Caledonia	0.5
	02 Feb 2021 22:00	Ognahu	New Caledonia	0.5
	02 Feb 2021 21:00	Wegnec St-Joseph	New Caledonia	0.4
	02 Feb 2021 21:00	Teouta	New Caledonia	0.4
	02 Feb 2021 21:00	Mouly	New Caledonia	0.4
	03 Feb 2021 14:00	Noumea	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 14:00	Comm. du Mont-Dore	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 14:00	Nouville	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 13:00	Tomo	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 07:00	Petit-Borindi	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 11:00	Bouloupari	New Caledonia	0.3
	02 Feb 2021 22:00	Ognat	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 13:00	Nde	New Caledonia	0.3
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Losuia	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 13:00	Paita	New Caledonia	0.3
	02 Feb 2021 19:00	Ouaco	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 12:00	Saint-Louis	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 00:00	Doueoulou	New Caledonia	0.2
	04 Feb 2021 00:00	Kaala-Gomen	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 06:00	Saint-Gabriel	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 07:00	Prony	New Caledonia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 06:00	Lahimoina	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 06:00	Leileiafa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Pantava	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Madaua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 07:00	Auneri	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 10:00	Hekampan	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 10:00	Tagula	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 15:00	Plum	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 13:00	Goro	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 12:00	Dumbea	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Griffin Point	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 18:00	Arama	New Caledonia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 17:00	Tiabet	New Caledonia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 18:00	Oundjo	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 07:00	Bona Bona I	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 08:00	Ouara	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 03:00	Ouasse	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Rewe	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 07:00	Gadaisu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	04 Feb 2021 00:00	Paagoumene	New Caledonia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 18:00	Nepoui	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Mirimairau	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 21:00	Chepenehe	New Caledonia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 21:00	Nathalo	New Caledonia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 21:00	Tingeting	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 07:00	Sidabadu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Mira	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Donuwo	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	04 Feb 2021 00:00	Poum-Plage	New Caledonia	0.1
	04 Feb 2021 00:00	Poum	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 13:00	Mamie	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 10:00	Waho	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 07:00	Lawes College	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Apeawa	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Babai	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Avioua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Veraibari	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Tovai	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Uramu I	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Kaivu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Mairipepea	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Moravamu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Kamaua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 22:00	Hunete	New Caledonia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 20:00	Doking	New Caledonia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 21:00	Nang	New Caledonia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 21:00	Havila	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 07:00	Gogsiba	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 14:00	Meomo	New Caledonia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 14:00	Saint-Denis	New Caledonia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 14:00	Ometteux	New Caledonia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 14:00	Bayes	New Caledonia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 14:00	Touho	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 05:00	Thio	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 12:00	Station Ouaneko	New Caledonia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.