Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for DUMAZILE-18 in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar from 02 Mar 2018 12:00 UTC to 07 Mar 2018 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for DUMAZILE-18

in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DUMAZILE-18 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	213 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (03 Mar 21:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Reunion)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	102 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	213 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

102 km/h Current Max.

Up to 10.1 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	02 Mar 2018 12:00	194	8.8 million	No people	Madagascar, Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
2	02 Mar 2018 18:00	213	8.6 million	No people	Madagascar, Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
3	03 Mar 2018 00:00	213	8.3 million	No people	Madagascar, Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
4	03 Mar 2018 06:00	204	9.4 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
5	03 Mar 2018 12:00	157	17.1 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
6	03 Mar 2018 18:00	148	16.9 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
7	04 Mar 2018 00:00	157	17 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
8	04 Mar 2018 06:00	157	18.9 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius
9	04 Mar 2018 12:00	176	16.9 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius
10	04 Mar 2018 18:00	176	15.9 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
11	05 Mar 2018 00:00	194	12.8 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
12	05 Mar 2018 06:00	194	10.4 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius
13	05 Mar 2018 12:00	194	10.6 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
14	05 Mar 2018 18:00	185	10.1 million	No people	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
15	06 Mar 2018 00:00	185	10.1 million	No people	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar, Mauritius
16	06 Mar 2018 06:00	176	10.4 million	No people	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mauritius, Madagascar
17	06 Mar 2018 12:00	167	10.1 million	No people	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
18	06 Mar 2018 18:00	130	10.1 million	No people	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
19	07 Mar 2018 00:00	102	10.1 million	No people	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
20	07 Mar 2018 06:00	83	10.1 million	No people	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
21	07 Mar 2018 12:00	74	10.1 million	No people	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
22	07 Mar 2018 18:00	102	10.1 million	No people	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	02 Mar 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-12.6, 54.2
2	02 Mar 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-12.8, 54.4
3	03 Mar 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	<1000 people	-14.1, 54.2	Madagascar
4	03 Mar 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	1.1 million people	-14.9, 53.4	Madagascar
5	03 Mar 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	3.9 million people	-15.3, 52.4	Madagascar
6	03 Mar 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	8.4 million people	-16, 52.1	Madagascar
7	04 Mar 2018 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	11.7 million people	-16.6, 51.6	Madagascar
8	04 Mar 2018 06:00	Category 1	130	no people	14.7 million people	-17.7, 51.3	Madagascar
9	04 Mar 2018 12:00	Category 1	148	no people	12 million people	-18.5, 50.8	Madagascar
10	04 Mar 2018 18:00	Category 1	148	no people	12.4 million people	-19.4, 50.6	Madagascar
11	05 Mar 2018 00:00	Category 2	167	no people	7.1 million people	-20.3, 51	Madagascar
12	05 Mar 2018 06:00	Category 3	185	no people	3.7 million people	-21, 51.3	Madagascar
13	05 Mar 2018 12:00	Category 3	194	no people	2.6 million people	-22.1, 51.7	Madagascar
14	05 Mar 2018 18:00	Category 3	185	no people	1.1 million people	-22.9, 52.2	Madagascar
15	06 Mar 2018 00:00	Category 3	185	no people	850000 people	-23.3, 52.7	Mauritius
16	06 Mar 2018 06:00	Category 2	176	no people	1.1 million people	-24.2, 53.6	Mauritius
17	06 Mar 2018 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	840000 people	-25, 54.8	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
18	06 Mar 2018 18:00	Category 1	130	no people	840000 people	-25.6, 55.1	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
19	07 Mar 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-26.6, 55.6
20	07 Mar 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-27.1, 55.9
21	07 Mar 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-27.9, 56.2
22	07 Mar 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-28.3, 56.9
22	08 Mar 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-29.8, 58.6

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Reunion
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Reunion	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Fianarantsoa	Madagascar
Toamasina	Madagascar
Antananarivo	Madagascar
Mahajanga	Madagascar
Antsiranana	Madagascar

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Saint-Denis		Reunion	Capital	140000 people
Farafangana	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	25000 people
Manakara	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	35000 people
Sahasinaka	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	-
Mananjary	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	27000 people
Tamatave	Toamasina	Madagascar	City	200000 people
Moramanga	Toamasina	Madagascar	City	29000 people
Antananarivo	Antananarivo	Madagascar	Capital	1.4 million people
Fenerive	Toamasina	Madagascar	City	-
Mananara	Toamasina	Madagascar	City	41000 people
Maroantsetra	Toamasina	Madagascar	City	24000 people
Mandritsara	Mahajanga	Madagascar	City	-
Antalaha	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	34000 people
Andapa	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	20000 people
Sambava	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	31000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
St Pierre Pierrefonds	ZSE	16				0
Saint Denis Gillot	RUN	20				0
Farafangana	RVA	8	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3400
Manakara Sud	WVK	10	Civ.	Paved	No	3900
Mananjary	MNJ	6	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Mahanoro	VVB	5	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4400
Atsinanana	ILK	10	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3200
Vatomandry	VAT	12	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3800
Toamasina	TMM	6	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7200
Antananarivo Ivato	TNR	1279	Civ.	Paved	Yes	10100
Sainte Marie	SMS	2	Civ.	Paved	No	3300
Ambatondrazaka	WAM	766	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4200
Mananara Nord	WMR	3	Civ.	Paved	No	4100
Maroantsetra	WMN	4	Civ.	Paved	No	4200
Mandritsara	WMA	307	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3700
Antalaha Antsirabato	ANM	6	Civ.	Paved	No	3900
Andapa	ZWA	473	Civ.	Paved	No	4100
Sambava	SVB	6	Civ.	Paved	No	5900

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Saint Pierre		Reunion
Pointe Des Galets	REPDG	Reunion
Saint Denis		Reunion
Farafangana	MGRVA	Madagascar
Manakara	MGWVK	Madagascar
Mananjary	MGMNJ	Madagascar
Mahanoro	MGVVB	Madagascar
Vatomandry	MGVAT	Madagascar
Andevoranto		Madagascar
Tamatave (Toamasina)	MGTMM	Madagascar
Foulpointe		Madagascar
Fenerive		Madagascar
Port Sainte Marie		Madagascar
Saint Mary Island		Madagascar
Mananara	MGWMR	Madagascar
Maroantsetra	MGWMN	Madagascar
Antataha	MGANM	Madagascar
Sambava	MGSVB	Madagascar

Dams

Dam Name	River	Year
Tsiazompaniry	Varahina-Sud	1956
Mantasoa	Varahina-Nord	1938
Antanifotsy	Antanifotsy	1958
Sahamaloto	Sahamaloto	1958

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Mahalevona, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 03 Mar 2018 21:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (114 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 22 of 07 Mar 2018 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.4
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.3
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.3
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.3
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.3
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.3
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.3
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.3
	03 Mar 2018 22:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.3
	04 Mar 2018 07:00	Antetezambaro	Madagascar	0.3
	04 Mar 2018 07:00	Ambodihariha	Madagascar	0.3
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 22:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 06:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 06:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 06:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 06:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 07:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 22:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 22:00	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 13:00	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 13:00	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 19:00	Anaovandrano	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 06:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Fadrina	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Manambato	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 08:00	Tamatave	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 22:00	Ankazomalemy	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 19:00	Ratsianarana	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 19:00	Ambodivato	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 19:00	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 19:00	Anjanozana	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 19:00	Ampanavoana	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 06:00	Foulpointe	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 18:00	Vohitramposina	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Mar 2018 18:00	Befasy	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 18:00	Ambohitralanana	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 08:00	Ankarefo	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 07:00	Ambinanysahavary	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 19:00	Maniroka	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 08:00	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 06:00	Tampina	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 17:00	Manakambahiny	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 18:00	Marosiky	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Mar 2018 12:00	Saint-Louis	Reunion	0.1
	06 Mar 2018 12:00	Saint-Pierre	Reunion	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 18:00	Ambodiharina	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 12:00	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 12:00	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Bobasakoa	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 06:00	Taratasy	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 19:00	Antanjokatafana	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 08:00	Ampitabe	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 08:00	Kalomalala	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 18:00	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 13:00	Ampanakana	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 13:00	Fararano	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 13:00	Antsorokaka	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 08:00	Marofinaritra	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 07:00	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 07:00	Andrafialava	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 06:00	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 08:00	Vavony	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 08:00	Ampanotoamaizina	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 08:00	Amboditafara	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 17:00	Vatomandry	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Mar 2018 18:00	Akondro	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 05:00	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 07:00	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 07:00	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 19:00	Maintinandry	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Mar 2018 10:00	Ambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Mar 2018 19:00	Manantenina	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.