Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FRANCISCO-20 in Madagascar, Mauritius, from 04 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC to 14 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20

in Madagascar, Mauritius,

05 Feb 2020 12 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	101 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (05 Feb 15:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	101 km/h	0.4 m	258 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.5 m	707 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 05 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Madagascar	188,521

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	197	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	192	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	454	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Manakalana, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 05 Feb 2020 15:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 05 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	05 Feb 2020 15:30	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2020 15:30	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2020 15:30	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2020 15:30	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2020 15:30	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2020 15:30	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2020 15:30	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2020 15:30	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2020 15:30	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2020 15:30	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2020 13:30	Voloina	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2020 13:30	Manambia	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2020 13:30	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2020 13:30	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2020 13:30	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2020 13:30	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2020 15:30	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2020 15:30	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2020 15:45	Manompana	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2020 15:45	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2020 15:15	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 18:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 13:30	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 18:00	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 18:00	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 18:00	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 18:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 18:00	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 15:30	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 15:30	Manambato	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 18:00	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 16:15	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 16:15	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 14:30	Manomba	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 14:30	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 14:30	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 16:15	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 16:15	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 15:30	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 15:30	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 13:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 13:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 14:30	Belailay	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 14:30	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 14:30	Andemba	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 16:30	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 16:30	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 16:15	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 18:00	Appontement	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 18:00	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 15:30	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 15:30	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 18:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 18:00	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 12:30	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 12:30	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 12:30	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 12:30	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 12:30	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 12:30	Mananara	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 15:45	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 15:45	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 12:15	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 12:15	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 12:15	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 12:15	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 14:45	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 14:45	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 14:45	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 14:45	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 14:45	Manampea	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 15:30	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 15:30	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 15:30	Namahoaka	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 16:30	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 13:15	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 15:15	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 12:45	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 13:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:15	Vila de Mocimboa da Praia	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:15	Meronvi	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:15	Quissengue	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 14:30	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 14:30	Onara	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Anjiamalandy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Ampiambesa	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:15	Libambai	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:15	Ampataka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:15	Amboboka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:15	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:15	Tsivala	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:45	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:30	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 18:00	Morondava	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 18:00	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:45	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:45	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:45	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:45	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:00	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:00	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 12:15	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:45	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:45	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:45	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:45	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:45	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Majunga	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Boanamary	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Moraharivo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 14:30	Ampanakana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 14:30	Fararano	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 14:30	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 14:30	Antsorokaka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 14:30	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 14:30	Antanifatsy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 14:30	Mahatsaborimaika	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 12:15	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:45	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:45	Baly	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:45	Soalala	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:00	Mangaoka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:00	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:00	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:00	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 15:15	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Maromanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Maromandia	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Singalana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 14:15	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 14:15	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 12:00	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Ampandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Andrafialava	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:00	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:15	Palma	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:15	Quionga	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:15	Boala	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:15	Maganja	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 16:15	Quiwia	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 12:30	Foulpointe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 18:00	Soahanina	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 18:00	Tamotamo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 18:00	Manometimay	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 18:00	Antsamaka	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.