Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FRANCISCO-20 in Madagascar, Mauritius, from 04 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC to 14 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20

in Madagascar, Mauritius,

12 Feb 2020 06 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	58 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (12 Feb 11:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	58 km/h	0.3 m	48 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.5 m	707 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 12 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	09 Feb 2020 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	09 Feb 2020 06:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	09 Feb 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	09 Feb 2020 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	10 Feb 2020 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	10 Feb 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	10 Feb 2020 12:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	10 Feb 2020 18:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	11 Feb 2020 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	11 Feb 2020 06:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	11 Feb 2020 12:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	11 Feb 2020 18:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	12 Feb 2020 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	12 Feb 2020 06:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Madagascar	462,984
50-100 mm	Tanzania, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar	4,886,474	+
	Tanzania	29,076
	Mozambique	358
	Comoros	8,593
	Madagascar	4,848,447

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	197	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	192	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	258	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	276	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	274	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	81	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	77	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	59	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	127	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	75	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	46	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Feb 2020 18:00	63	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	09 Feb 2020 00:00	82	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	09 Feb 2020 06:00	66	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	09 Feb 2020 12:00	57	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	09 Feb 2020 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	10 Feb 2020 00:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	10 Feb 2020 06:00	22	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	10 Feb 2020 12:00	26	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	10 Feb 2020 18:00	52	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	11 Feb 2020 00:00	40	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	11 Feb 2020 06:00	41	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	11 Feb 2020 12:00	30	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	11 Feb 2020 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	12 Feb 2020 00:00	59	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	12 Feb 2020 06:00	395	460 thousand			-	-	-	-	Tanzania, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Manakalana, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 12 Feb 2020 11:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 12 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	12 Feb 2020 11:45	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.3
	12 Feb 2020 11:45	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.3
	12 Feb 2020 11:45	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.3
	12 Feb 2020 11:45	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.3
	12 Feb 2020 11:45	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.3
	12 Feb 2020 11:45	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.3
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 11:45	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 11:45	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 11:45	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 11:30	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 11:30	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 11:45	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 11:45	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 06:00	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 06:00	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Andriana	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 09:45	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 09:45	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 09:45	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 09:45	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 09:45	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 09:45	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 11:45	Manompana	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 11:30	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 09:30	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 11:15	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 11:15	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 11:15	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 11:15	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 08:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 09:45	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 09:45	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 11:45	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 11:00	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 11:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 11:00	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 11:00	Mananara	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 11:00	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 11:00	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 11:00	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 11:00	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 11:00	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 11:00	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 11:00	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Feb 2020 10:45	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 10:45	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 11:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 11:45	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 11:45	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 06:00	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 06:00	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 06:00	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 06:00	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 06:00	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 06:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 10:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 10:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 11:15	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 11:15	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Antseranana	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Andasoa	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Amoronjia-Orangea	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 09:45	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 11:15	Namahoaka	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 11:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 10:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 10:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 10:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 11:00	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 11:00	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 06:00	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 10:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 09:30	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 11:00	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 11:00	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 11:45	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 09:45	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 09:45	Moravano	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 09:45	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Fadrina	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Ampandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Andrafialava	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Maromanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 09:45	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 09:30	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 10:15	Loharano	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 10:15	Ankarimbary	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 10:00	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 09:45	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 08:45	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 08:45	Ankoba	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 08:45	Antseranandaka	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 08:45	Mite	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 11:00	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Ampiambesa	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Maromandia	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Antotoro	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Ampohana	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Andranira	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Mandrorohabe	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Mailakapasy	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 11:00	Ampanakana	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 11:00	Fararano	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 11:00	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 11:00	Antsorokaka	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 11:00	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 11:00	Antanifatsy	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 11:00	Mahatsaborimaika	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Antsahampano	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 11:45	Vila de Mocimboa da Praia	Mozambique	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 11:45	Libambai	Mozambique	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 11:45	Meronvi	Mozambique	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 10:15	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 10:15	Andemba	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 11:00	Foulpointe	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 11:45	Quissengue	Mozambique	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambohimena	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Anjiamalandy	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Ankazomalemy	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Bobasakoa	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Ampasimpilily	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 12:00	Anompaka	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 10:00	Ambinany	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 10:00	Antalaha	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 10:00	Antsirabato	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 10:00	Anjahamarina	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 10:00	Ambalabe	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 08:30	Ankelifolo	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 08:30	Belo-sur-Mer	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 08:30	Marofihitsa	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 08:30	Ambararata	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 08:30	Ankevo	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 08:30	Ankiliabo	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Feb 2020 11:30	Ampasimena	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.