Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FRANCISCO-20 in Madagascar, Mauritius, from 04 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC to 14 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20

in Madagascar, Mauritius,

11 Feb 2020 00 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	50 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (11 Feb 05:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	50 km/h	0.2 m	40 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.5 m	707 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 11 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	09 Feb 2020 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	09 Feb 2020 06:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	09 Feb 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	09 Feb 2020 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	10 Feb 2020 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	10 Feb 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	10 Feb 2020 12:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	10 Feb 2020 18:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	11 Feb 2020 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Tanzania, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar	837,879	+
	Tanzania	10,657
	Mozambique	176,730
	Comoros	626,122
	Madagascar	24,370

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	197	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	192	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	258	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	276	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	274	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	81	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	77	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	59	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	127	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	75	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	46	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Feb 2020 18:00	63	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	09 Feb 2020 00:00	82	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	09 Feb 2020 06:00	66	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	09 Feb 2020 12:00	57	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	09 Feb 2020 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	10 Feb 2020 00:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	10 Feb 2020 06:00	22	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	10 Feb 2020 12:00	26	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	10 Feb 2020 18:00	52	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	11 Feb 2020 00:00	169	-		-	-	-	-	-	Tanzania, Mozambique, Comoros, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Manakalana, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 11 Feb 2020 05:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	11 Feb 2020 05:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 05:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 05:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 05:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 05:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 05:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 05:00	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 04:45	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 05:15	Manompana	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 05:15	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 05:15	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 05:15	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 05:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 05:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 05:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 04:45	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 04:45	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 04:45	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 04:45	Manambato	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Feb 2020 05:00	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 05:00	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 00:15	Manomba	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 00:15	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 00:15	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 03:30	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 03:15	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 00:15	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 02:15	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 02:15	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 01:15	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 01:15	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 01:15	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 01:15	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 01:15	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 01:30	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 03:15	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 03:15	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 03:15	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 03:15	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 03:30	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 03:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 03:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 03:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 03:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 04:45	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 04:45	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 03:15	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 03:15	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 03:30	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 03:30	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 02:00	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 02:00	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 02:00	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 02:00	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 02:00	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 01:15	Vila de Mocimboa da Praia	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 01:15	Libambai	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 01:15	Meronvi	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 04:45	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 04:45	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Feb 2020 01:15	Quissengue	Mozambique	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.