Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20
in Madagascar, Mauritius,

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 54 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (13 Feb 16:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 54 km/h 0.3 m 186 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 112 km/h 0.5 m 707 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 13 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Feb 2020 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 05 Feb 2020 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 05 Feb 2020 06:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 05 Feb 2020 18:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 06 Feb 2020 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 06 Feb 2020 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 06 Feb 2020 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 06 Feb 2020 18:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 07 Feb 2020 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 07 Feb 2020 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 07 Feb 2020 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 07 Feb 2020 18:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 08 Feb 2020 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 08 Feb 2020 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 08 Feb 2020 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 08 Feb 2020 18:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 09 Feb 2020 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 09 Feb 2020 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 09 Feb 2020 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 09 Feb 2020 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 10 Feb 2020 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 10 Feb 2020 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 10 Feb 2020 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 25 10 Feb 2020 18:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 26 11 Feb 2020 00:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 27 11 Feb 2020 06:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 28 11 Feb 2020 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 29 11 Feb 2020 18:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 30 12 Feb 2020 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 31 12 Feb 2020 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 32 12 Feb 2020 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 33 12 Feb 2020 18:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 34 13 Feb 2020 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 35 13 Feb 2020 06:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 36 13 Feb 2020 12:00 155 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 13 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMadagascar47,661 
100-250 mmMadagascar525,351 
50-100 mmMadagascar5,143,259 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Feb 2020 18:00 157 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 05 Feb 2020 00:00 197 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 05 Feb 2020 06:00 192 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 258 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 05 Feb 2020 18:00 276 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 06 Feb 2020 00:00 274 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 06 Feb 2020 06:00 81 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Feb 2020 12:00 106 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 06 Feb 2020 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 07 Feb 2020 00:00 77 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 07 Feb 2020 06:00 49 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 07 Feb 2020 12:00 31 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 07 Feb 2020 18:00 59 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 08 Feb 2020 00:00 127 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 08 Feb 2020 06:00 75 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 08 Feb 2020 12:00 46 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 08 Feb 2020 18:00 63 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 09 Feb 2020 00:00 82 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 09 Feb 2020 06:00 66 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 09 Feb 2020 12:00 57 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 09 Feb 2020 18:00 54 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 10 Feb 2020 00:00 106 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 10 Feb 2020 06:00 22 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 10 Feb 2020 12:00 26 - - - - - - -
Blue 25 10 Feb 2020 18:00 52 - - - - - - -
Blue 26 11 Feb 2020 00:00 40 - - - - - - -
Blue 27 11 Feb 2020 06:00 41 - - - - - - -
Blue 28 11 Feb 2020 12:00 30 - - - - - - -
Blue 29 11 Feb 2020 18:00 65 - - - - - - -
Blue 30 12 Feb 2020 00:00 59 - - - - - - -
Blue 31 12 Feb 2020 06:00 48 - - - - - - -
Blue 32 12 Feb 2020 12:00 128 - - - - - - -
Blue 33 12 Feb 2020 18:00 62 - - - - - - -
Blue 34 13 Feb 2020 00:00 93 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 35 13 Feb 2020 06:00 59 - - - - - - -
Blue 36 13 Feb 2020 12:00 687 570 thousand
- - - Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Bevatry, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 13 Feb 2020 16:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 13 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
13 Feb 2020 16:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.3
13 Feb 2020 16:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.3
15 Feb 2020 12:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 12:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 12:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 12:00 Vatobe Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 12:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 12:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 12:15 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 12:15 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 12:15 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 12:15 Manehoko Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 12:15 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 12:15 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 21:30 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 21:30 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 21:30 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 21:30 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 21:30 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 21:30 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 08:45 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 08:45 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 08:45 Rantabe Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 12:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 16:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 23:00 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 23:00 Andriana Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 23:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 23:00 Andrafia Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 23:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 22:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 22:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 22:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 22:15 Marofototra Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 22:15 Voalavo Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 22:15 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 20:15 Antohgo Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 05:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 05:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 05:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 05:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 12:30 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 12:30 Ambolikapika Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 16:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 01:30 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 20:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 01:30 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 16:45 Ampanakana Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 16:45 Fararano Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 16:45 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 16:45 Antsorokaka Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 16:45 Ambatobe Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 16:45 Antanifatsy Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 16:45 Mahatsaborimaika Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 12:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 12:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 12:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 16:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 01:30 Vohilava Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 08:30 Antananabe Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 08:30 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 08:30 Mandrony Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 08:30 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 08:30 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 08:30 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 08:30 Ampiambesa Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 08:30 Antetezampolaka Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 18:45 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 18:45 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 22:15 Marovazha Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 09:30 Soahazo Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 09:30 Moravano Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 09:30 Andramasay Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 17:45 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 17:45 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.2
15 Feb 2020 17:45 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 20:15 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 08:45 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 09:30 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 08:45 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 09:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.2
16 Feb 2020 10:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 15:45 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 15:30 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 15:30 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 15:30 Analalava Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 15:30 Androlavy Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 15:30 Ananalava Madagascar  0.2
13 Feb 2020 18:15 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 18:15 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 08:45 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 08:45 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 08:45 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 08:45 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 20:00 Maromanjo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 20:00 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 20:00 Bevoay Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 20:00 Maromandia Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 21:30 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 22:15 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 22:15 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 17:45 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 17:45 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 20:00 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 23:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 16:00 Baly Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 20:00 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 20:00 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 20:00 Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 15:45 Antotoro Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 15:45 Ampohana Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 15:45 Andranira Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 15:45 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 15:45 Mandrorohabe Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 15:45 Mailakapasy Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 08:30 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 08:30 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 21:45 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 09:15 Appontement Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 09:15 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 15:45 Antsahampano Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 09:30 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 09:30 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 09:15 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 09:15 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 09:15 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 09:15 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 21:45 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 23:15 Metuge Mozambique  0.1
13 Feb 2020 23:15 Mussange Mozambique  0.1
13 Feb 2020 23:15 Acache Mozambique  0.1
13 Feb 2020 23:15 Porto Amelia Mozambique  0.1
13 Feb 2020 23:15 Messequero Mozambique  0.1
13 Feb 2020 23:15 Atolo Mozambique  0.1
13 Feb 2020 23:15 Murrebue Mozambique  0.1
13 Feb 2020 23:15 Luguni Mozambique  0.1
13 Feb 2020 23:15 Tari Mozambique  0.1
16 Feb 2020 08:15 Behavoa Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 08:15 Befamata Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 08:15 Zavo Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 16:00 Soalala Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 19:45 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 19:45 Reharaka Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 13:45 Mangaoka Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 13:45 Ilomotro Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 13:45 Andohonko Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 13:45 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 21:45 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 22:15 Onara Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 08:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 08:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 10:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 10:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 10:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 08:15 Bevoalavo Est Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 03:15 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 03:15 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 03:15 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 03:15 Mananara Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 03:15 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 03:15 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 03:15 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 03:00 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 09:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 09:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 10:15 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 19:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 19:00 Ankoba Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 19:00 Antseranandaka Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 19:00 Mite Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 15:45 Ambohimena Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 15:30 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 15:30 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 15:30 Katsepy Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 15:30 Majunga Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 15:30 Boanamary Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 15:30 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 15:30 Moraharivo Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 22:15 Vila de Mocimboa da Praia Mozambique  0.1
13 Feb 2020 22:15 Meronvi Mozambique  0.1
13 Feb 2020 22:15 Quissengue Mozambique  0.1
13 Feb 2020 15:45 Singalana Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 15:45 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 15:45 Antaribao Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 15:45 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 15:45 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 21:30 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
13 Feb 2020 21:30 Metula Mozambique  0.1
15 Feb 2020 21:15 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.1
15 Feb 2020 21:15 Anompaka Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 20:00 Ampalaza Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 22:15 Libambai Mozambique  0.1
13 Feb 2020 14:00 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 15:45 Ampitily Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 19:15 Manahy Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 17:15 Tampina Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 17:15 Marofinaritra Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 17:15 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 23:15 Fadrina Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 16:45 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 16:45 Tsinjorano Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 16:45 Amboaboaka Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 16:45 Matahibory Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 16:45 Ampasitsilavitra Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 16:45 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 19:45 Anadramy Nord Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 19:45 Bekoropoka Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 19:45 Mangolovolo Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 14:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 14:00 Foulpointe Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 20:00 Momade Mozambique  0.1
13 Feb 2020 20:00 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 22:15 Ankazomalemy Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 22:15 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 09:30 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 09:30 Ambararata Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 09:30 Ankevo Madagascar  0.1
16 Feb 2020 09:30 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 16:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 18:45 Ankelifolo Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 18:45 Marofihitsa Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 20:15 Lavanono Madagascar  0.1
13 Feb 2020 22:15 Marovato Madagascar  0.1